The influence of atmospheric wave dynamics on interannual variation in the surface temperature of lakes in the English Lake District

Surface water temperatures in four lakes of the English Lake District (T_L) are shown to be sensitive to climate change and a large‐scale atmospheric phenomenon known as tropospheric Rossby wave breaking (RWB). RWB occurs frequently near the English Lake District, bringing warm and moist air, or cool and dry air, from distant sources. RWB case examples and composites are used to show three dimensional circulations and anomalies of near‐surface temperature and humidity associated with the two types of RWB (anticyclonic and cyclonic). Statistical models of lake surface temperature are developed for each season using objectively identified variability patterns of anticyclonic and cyclonic RWB, along with an index of Northern Hemisphere annual mean surface temperature (T_NH) to account for climate change. The statistical models, depending on season, account for 54–69% of T_L variance. RWB alone contributes significantly during each season, accounting for 37–52% of T_L variance after the effect of T_NH is removed. RWB is a key physical mechanism underlying the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a regional‐scale weather‐pattern that is frequently related to coherent lake properties. RWB may therefore be a more fundamental driver than the NAO in controlling interannual variation in the properties of lakes such as ice duration, metabolic rates, phenology, species composition and, via effects on stratification, underwater light‐climate, nutrient‐cycling and oxygen‐depletion. Variation in other meteorological features that are linked to RWB, such as precipitation, may have additional effects. RWB is also likely to influence terrestrial and marine environments.     

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of four lakes in the English Lake District

1. Thirty‐six years of winter meteorological and limnological measurements from four lakes in the English Lake District are analysed and related to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Winter weather conditions were strongly influenced by the NAO with mild, wet winters being associated with strongly positive values of the NAO index (NAOI). 2. Lake surface and bottom temperatures were strongly positively correlated with the NAOI, with the highest correlations being recorded in the shallower lakes. 3. Variations in the NAOI also had a significant effect on the winter concentration of nitrate. In all the lakes, there was a significant negative correlation between the NAOI and the detrended winter concentration of nitrate. The key driving variable was the local air temperature, which appeared to limit the quantity of nitrate reaching the lake by increasing the amount assimilated in the surrounding catchment in mild winters. 4. Dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) concentrations were not significantly correlated with the NAOI in the two larger basins but significant positive correlations were recorded in the two smaller lakes. The key driving variable was the local rainfall with higher DRP concentrations being recorded after heavy rain in the lakes with a short retention time. 5. The NAOI‐related changes in rainfall also influenced the phytoplankton. In wet winters the concentration of chlorophyll in the two smaller lakes with the shortest retention time was lower and the spring growth of Asterionella formosa was delayed in the smallest lake. 6. These differential responses demonstrate how the large‐scale effects associated with the NAO can be ‘filtered’ by the physical characteristics of a particular site.     

Factors influencing the temporal coherence of five lakes in the English Lake District

1. The lakes in the Windermere catchment are all deep, glacial lakes but they differ in size, shape and general productivity. Here, we examine the extent to which year‐to‐year variations in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of these lakes varied synchronously over a 30–40‐year period. 2. Coherence was estimated by correlating time‐series of the spring, summer, autumn and winter characteristics of five lakes: Esthwaite Water, Blelham Tarn, Grasmere and the North and South Basins of Windermere. Three physical, four chemical and two biological time‐series were analysed and related to year‐to‐year variations in a number of key driving variables. 3. The highest levels of coherence were recorded for the physical and chemical variables where the average coherence was 0.81. The average coherence for the biological variables was 0.11 and there were a number of significant negative relationships. The average coherence between all possible lake pairs was 0.59 and average values ranged from 0.50 to 0.74. A graphical analysis of these results demonstrated that the coherence between individual lake pairs was influenced by the relative size of the basins as well as their trophic status. 4. A series of examples is presented to demonstrate how a small number of driving variables influenced the observed levels of coherence. These range from a simple example where the winter temperature of the lakes was correlated with the climatic index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, to a more complex example where the summer abundance of zooplankton was correlated with wind‐mixing. 5. The implications of these findings are discussed and a conceptual model developed to illustrate the principal factors influencing temporal coherence in lake systems. The model suggests that our ability to detect temporal coherence depends on the relative magnitude of three factors: (a) the amplitude of the year‐to‐year variations; (b) the spatial heterogeneity of the driving variables and (c) the error terms associated with any particular measurement.     

气候变化对鸟类影响的研究进展

气候变化对生物多样性的影响已成为热点问题.本文以鸟类为研究对象,根据鸟类受气候变化影响的最新研究成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类的分布、物候和种群等方面的影响.结果表明,在气候变化影响下,鸟类分布向高纬度或高海拔区移动,速度比以往加快,繁殖地和非繁殖地的分布移动变化并不相同,并且多数分布范围缩小,物候期发生复杂变化,种群数量下降明显.文章还讨论了该领域主要的预测和评估方法,以及进化适应等生物因素对气候变化预测结果的影响,除了以往单一的相关性模型外,目前应用最多的是集成模型,而未来最具发展潜力的是机理模型.进化适应方面的研究近来取得新进展,证实了生物个体积极应对气候变化影响的事实,从而对人为模型预测的准确性带来挑战.文章最后进行了总结和展望,结合国外研究经验和我国实际情况,提出一些建议:由于气候变化的影响及其研究是长期性的,从而对鸟类的历史监测数据提出很高的要求,当前我国急需建立一套长期、全面和可靠的鸟类数据监测系统;此外,人们需要综合评估现有各种预测模型的可靠性,在此基础上探索新的研究方法.     

气候变化对滇西北碧塔海流域景观演变的影响

气候变化是景观演变的重要驱动力,高海拔地带生态系统对气候变化的响应较为敏感和迅速。选择地处青藏高原东南缘,受人为干扰相对较小的碧塔海流域为研究对象,利用1958—2011年气象资料以及1955、1974、1981、1994、2005和2011年6个年代的景观类型面积,采用气候倾向率估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验方法和Pearson相关系数等统计方法,研究了香格里拉县气候变化背景下碧塔海流域景观演变特征。结果表明:(1)1958—2011年来,滇西北香格里拉县多年平均气温为5.9℃,多年平均活动积温为2146.1℃,多年平均年极端高温为24.3℃,多年平均年极端低温为-18.6℃,多年平均降水量为631.7mm。气温、活动积温和年极端低温呈显著上升趋势,近54年来气温平均上升了1.94℃,升温速率远高于云南和全国水平。年极端高温和降水量呈增加趋势,但增加不明显。滇西北高原碧塔海流域背景气候呈现显著的变暖趋势。(2)1955—2011年来,碧塔海流域自然景观演变规律为草甸和灌草丛向有林地演变,气温、活动积温和年极端低温升高趋势与有林地景观面积的增加趋势大体一致,与草甸和灌草丛变化趋势相反。(3)气温、活动积温和年极端低温与碧塔海流域草甸、灌草丛和有林地的景观面积变化具有显著的相关性,是流域景观演变的主导气候要素,在草甸和灌草丛演变成有林地的过程中发挥着重要作用。极端高温和降水量对流域景观演变的作用相对较弱。     

气候变化对鄱阳湖白鹤越冬种群数量变化的影响

分析了1983—2011年鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区越冬白鹤种群数量的年际变化趋势,检验了白鹤种群动态与繁殖地和越冬地气候变化的相关性,气候变量包括月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温和月降水量。研究结果表明,鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区内的白鹤年最大数量平均为(2 130±153)只,呈显著地线性增长趋势(R2=0.454,F=22.441,df=28,P=0.000),但年际波动较大。在越冬地,越冬当年10月、11月、12月的气候变量与白鹤种群数量没有显著的相关性,但越冬初期10月份和越冬后期翌年3月份的气温变量与第4年、第5年、第6年及第7年的白鹤种群数量存在显著的正相关,表明越冬地气候对白鹤种群大小的影响存在时滞效应。越冬初期和末期可能是白鹤补充能量的关键阶段,而且越冬初期的气候可能也与冬季食物的数量或质量相关,因此这两个阶段的适宜气温可能有利于个体尤其是幼鹤的存活,使更多的个体参加繁殖,由于白鹤的性成熟年龄在3—5a,因此其对白鹤种群增长的有利影响会在3a以后表现出来。白鹤种群数量变化与繁殖地繁殖期的降水量没有显著的相关性,而与7月份的气温变量存在显著的正相关。多元线性回归分析结果表明,6a前的10月份平均最低温度、2a前的10月最高温度及5a前的10月平均气温是白鹤种群数量变化的显著预测因子,共同解释了鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区白鹤种群数量变化的74.8%(F=23.807,df=27,P=0.000)。     

气候变化对中国东北地区日本松干蚧传播扩散的影响

基于气候资料和日本松干蚧传播资料,根据传播扩散范围及入侵地的气候特征,分析了日本松干蚧主要影响因子的年代变化对日本松干蚧在东北地区扩散的影响。结果表明:东北地区最冷月各旬及月平均最低气温总的呈升高趋势(r=0.86,P0.05),冬季极端最低气温也有缓慢上升趋势(r=0.93,P0.01),其年代间的冷暖变化与日本松干蚧在东北地区扩散有明显的相关性。1月平均最低气温和冬季极端最低气温明显升高的20世纪70年代和90年代,日本松干蚧快速扩散、危害地虫口密度大、危害程度重。日本松干蚧大范围扩散和爆发都发生在1月份最低气温较高的年份。1月最低气温和冬季极端最低气温升高是日本松干蚧在东北地区传播扩散的重要因素。复苏后的降水量、卵孵化期的空气相对湿度和夏季最高气温的年代变化对日本松干蚧扩散的影响不显著。     

The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta) and Garjan (Dipterocarpus turbinatus) form mono‐specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change‐driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence‐only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool “MaxEnt” (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.     

模拟气候变化背景下铁输入对小兴凯湖狭叶甜茅生理生态的影响

富铁地下水从农田流入湿地生态系统是近些年来湿地所面临的环境问题之一,在气候变化背景下更为复杂。通过湿地微生境人工模拟实验,研究铁输入、温度和水位3因素对兴凯湖湿地植物优势物种——狭叶甜茅(Glyceria spiculosa(Fr.Schmidt.)Rosh.)整个生长周期生理生态的影响。对狭叶甜茅的株高、叶片数目、基茎、叶面积,叶片叶绿素a、b,地上生物量及其总氮(TN)、总碳(TC)、总磷(TP)、总铁(TFe)含量的分析测试结果表明:(1)温度为主要影响因素,降温2℃效果明显且对株高、叶片数目和叶面积最显著。对照温度处理叶绿素a、b值最大,主要为生长速度相对缓慢而造成叶绿素聚集在细胞中导致浓度较高。(2)水位对狭叶甜茅基茎、地上部分总铁含量影响最显著,5 cm淹水处理更有利于地上部分总铁含量富集。(3)3个铁输入强度对狭叶甜茅生理生态各指标没有达到显著水平。综合各指标特征加权分析表明,温度升高对其生长产生不利影响,降温2℃处理植物表现出良好的适应性,淹水及铁输入条件下其生长状况显著增强,以目前小兴凯湖外源铁输入强度情况下湿地植物铁含量会有所增加。可以推测,在全球变暖趋势下,狭叶甜茅这种对气候变化敏感的物种,其生存将面临一定的威胁。     

气候变化与人类活动双重驱动的冷水湖泊富营养化

富营养化对水生生态系统造成的负面影响已在世界范围内广泛发生,尤其对淡水水源地湖泊的水环境质量影响深远,进而引起当地居民的饮用水安全与健康隐患。在人类活动和气候变化的双重驱动下,富营养化辐射的范围不断扩大,从过去主要集中于温带大型浅水湖泊已经扩展到寒冷地区的冷水湖泊。分析了近年来世界范围内高寒地区冷水湖泊富营养化的趋势特征与研究进展,探讨了气候变化、人类干扰(农业活动、畜牧业生产、管理措施不当等)在不同地区冷水湖泊富营养化进程中的作用。在未来的研究中,应进一步加强对冷水湖泊富营养化机制的探讨,并对已有富营养化症状的湖泊进行生态修复,以确保冷水湖泊生态系统健康并改善饮用水源地的环境质量。     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化V.宁夏农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961-2009年宁夏21个气象站点的气象资料,分析了宁夏各区农业气候资源的时空变化趋势.结果表明:研究期间,宁夏各地气温逐渐升高,呈北高南低的空间分布特征,年均气温的气候倾向率为0.4℃·(10 a)-1;大部分地区年降水量呈逐渐减少趋势,年降水量的气候倾向率为4.26 mm·(10 a)-1;无霜期和作物生长季天数随着气候变暖逐渐延长;≥10℃积温在3200℃·d以上的区域向南扩展,宁夏适宜种植中晚熟水稻的区域有所扩大;2001-2009年,宁夏大部分地区适宜种植冬小麦,全区各地几乎都适宜种植春小麦;宁夏南部山区各地7月平均气温≤20℃的区域面积逐渐缩小,适宜种植马铃薯的地域也随之缩小.     

Productivity of high-latitude lakes: climate effect inferred from altitude gradient

Climate change is predicted to be dramatic at high latitudes. Still, climate impact on high latitude lake ecosystems is poorly understood. We studied 15 subarctic lakes located in a climate gradient comprising an air temperature difference of about 6°C. We show that lake water productivity varied by one order of magnitude along the temperature gradient. This variation was mainly caused by variations in the length of the ice‐free period and, more importantly, in the supply of organic carbon and inorganic nutrients, which followed differences in terrestrial vegetation cover along the gradient. The results imply that warming will have rapid effects on the productivity of high latitude lakes, by prolongation of ice‐free periods. However, a more pronounced consequence will be a delayed stimulation of the productivity following upon changes of the lakes terrestrial surroundings and subsequent increasing input of elements that stimulate the production of lake biota.     

The impact of climate change on the structure of Pleistocene food webs across the mammoth steppe

Species interactions form food webs, impacting community structure and, potentially, ecological dynamics. It is likely that global climatic perturbations that occur over long periods of time have a significant influence on species interaction patterns. Here, we integrate stable isotope analysis and network theory to reconstruct patterns of trophic interactions for six independent mammalian communities that inhabited mammoth steppe environments spanning western Europe to eastern Alaska (Beringia) during the Late Pleistocene. We use a Bayesian mixing model to quantify the contribution of prey to the diets of local predators, and assess how the structure of trophic interactions changed across space and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a global climatic event that severely impacted mammoth steppe communities. We find that large felids had diets that were more constrained than those of co-occurring predators, and largely influenced by an increase in Rangifer abundance after the LGM. Moreover, the structural organization of Beringian and European communities strongly differed: compared with Europe, species interactions in Beringian communities before—and possibly after—the LGM were highly modular. We suggest that this difference in modularity may have been driven by the geographical insularity of Beringian communities.     

Modelling the effects on phytoplankton communities of changing mixed depth and background extinction coefficient on three contrasting lakes in the English Lake District

1. The process‐based phytoplankton community model, PROTECH, was used to model the response of algal biomass to a range of mixed layer depths and extinction coefficients for three contrasting lakes: Blelham Tarn (eutrophic), Bassenthwaite Lake (mesotrophic) and Ullswater (oligotrophic). 2. As expected, in most cases biomass and diversity decreased with decreasing light availability caused by increasing the mixed depth and background extinction coefficient. The communities were generally dominated by phytoplankton tolerant of low light. Further, more novel, factors were identified, however. 3. In Blelham Tarn in the second half of the year, biomass and diversity did not generally decline with deeper mixing and the community was dominated by nitrogen‐fixing phytoplankton because that nutrient was limiting to growth. 4. In Bassenthwaite Lake, changing mixed depth influenced the retention time so that, as the mixed depth declined, the flushing rate in the mixed layer increased to the point that only fast‐growing phytoplankton could dominate. 5. In the oligotrophic Ullswater, changing the mixed depth had a greater effect through nutrient supply rather than light availability. This effect was observed when the mixed layer was relatively shallow (<5.5 m) and the driver for this was that the inflowing nutrients were added to a smaller volume of water, thus increasing nutrient concentrations and algal growth. 6. Therefore, whilst changes in mixed depth generally affect the phytoplankton via commonly recognized factors (light availability, sedimentation rate), it also affected phytoplankton growth and community composition through other important factors such as retention time and nutrient supply.     

The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution

AimGiven that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species of Plethodon in the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species‐by‐species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group.LocationPacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT).Major taxa studiedWestern Plethodon salamanders.MethodsSpecies distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage.ResultsThe distribution of western Plethodon salamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group.Main conclusionsWhile some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades of Plethodon species are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution of Plethodon species.     

Homogenization of freshwater lakes: Recent compositional shifts in fish communities are explained by gamefish movement and not climate change

Globally, lake fish communities are being subjected to a range of scale‐dependent anthropogenic pressures, from climate change to eutrophication, and from overexploitation to species introductions. As a consequence, the composition of these communities is being reshuffled, in most cases leading to a surge in taxonomic similarity at the regional scale termed homogenization. The drivers of homogenization remain unclear, which may be a reflection of interactions between various environmental changes. In this study, we investigate two potential drivers of the recent changes in the composition of freshwater fish communities: recreational fishing and climate change. Our results, derived from 524 lakes of Ontario, Canada sampled in two periods (1965–1982 and 2008–2012), demonstrate that the main contributors to homogenization are the dispersal of gamefish species, most of which are large predators. Alternative explanations relating to lake habitat (e.g., area, phosphorus) or variations in climate have limited explanatory power. Our analysis suggests that human‐assisted migration is the primary driver of the observed compositional shifts, homogenizing freshwater fish community among Ontario lakes and generating food webs dominated by gamefish species.     

郑州植物物候对气候变化的响应

利用统计和突变分析方法,对郑州气候（1956～2003年）和4种乔木物候（1986～2003年）的趋势变化特征进行了分析,并探讨了植物物候期与平均温度、日照的相关性以及对温度变化的响应趋势。分析发现：（1）郑州近50a来在冬、春季升温现象明显;日照在夏季下降最为显著,冬季其次,但在2～4月份历年呈弱上升趋势。（2）物候期变化趋势表现在展叶、开花、果熟期（除楝树外）呈提前趋势,落叶期略有推迟,绿叶期延长,特别是在20世纪90年代中后期,春季物候期（除垂柳外）提前10d左右。（3）平均温度是影响物候期最为显著的气候因子,温度每升高1℃,春季物候平均提前6d左右,绿叶期延长9．5～18．6d;物候期突变一般发生在温度突变之后。以上分析说明植物物候对气候变化响应比较敏感,通过分析和掌握气候和物候变化规律,了解其对当地植物物候的可能影响,可为农业生产、生态环境监测和评估等提供一些理论依据。     

气候变化对中国农作物虫害发生的影响

基于1961—2010年全国农区527个气象站点气象资料、全国病虫害资料以及农作物种植面积等资料,对全国虫害发生面积与气象因子采用相关分析法,分析了气象要素变化对虫害发生的影响。结果表明:气候变化背景下,年平均温度、平均降水强度分别以0.27℃.10a-1、0.24mm.(d.10a)-1的速度增长,年日照时数以47.40h.10a-1的速度减小;年降水量增长速率为0.14mm.10a-1,但波动较大;虫害发生面积率距平与平均温度、平均降水强度距平呈显著正相关,平均温度、平均降水强度分别每增加1℃、1mm.d-1,虫害发生面积率增加0.648、0.713,虫害发生面积将增加0.96、1.06亿hm2次;虫害发生面积率距平与年日照时数距平呈显著负相关,其每降低100h,虫害发生面积率增加0.40,虫害发生面积将增加0.59亿hm2次;总体上,虫害发生面积率距平与年降水量距平的关系不明显。虫害发生面积率距平与年平均小雨量、微雨量雨日数、小雨量雨日数距平呈显著负相关,3个因子分别每减少1mm、1d、1d,虫害发生面积率增加0.014、0.066、0.052,发生面积将增加0.02、0.10、0.08亿hm2次。     

Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change

Increasing concern over the implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of species–climate envelope models to project species extinction risk under climate‐change scenarios. However, recent studies have demonstrated significant variability in model predictions and there remains a pressing need to validate models and to reduce uncertainties. Model validation is problematic as predictions are made for events that have not yet occurred. Resubstituition and data partitioning of present‐day data sets are, therefore, commonly used to test the predictive performance of models. However, these approaches suffer from the problems of spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the calibration and validation sets. Using observed distribution shifts among 116 British breeding‐bird species over the past ～20 years, we are able to provide a first independent validation of four envelope modelling techniques under climate change. Results showed good to fair predictive performance on independent validation, although rules used to assess model performance are difficult to interpret in a decision‐planning context. We also showed that measures of performance on nonindependent data provided optimistic estimates of models' predictive ability on independent data. Artificial neural networks and generalized additive models provided generally more accurate predictions of species range shifts than generalized linear models or classification tree analysis. Data for independent model validation and replication of this study are rare and we argue that perfect validation may not in fact be conceptually possible. We also note that usefulness of models is contingent on both the questions being asked and the techniques used. Implementations of species–climate envelope models for testing hypotheses and predicting future events may prove wrong, while being potentially useful if put into appropriate context.