基于逻辑斯蒂回归模型的鹭科水鸟栖息地适宜性评价

近年来湿地生态系统遭到不同程度破坏,湿地水鸟及其生存空间日益受到威胁。以香港米埔-后海湾湿地为例,收集2003年1月份与鹭科水鸟密切相关的15个自变量和鹭科水鸟实测数据作为因变量构建逻辑斯蒂回归模型,通过筛选获取9个变量因子,分别为土地利用,NDVI,坡度,降雨,TM4纹理,TM3纹理,道路密度,道路距离,人居密度。经Nagelkerke R2检验模型精度达到0.743,拟合度较高。利用模型结果快速聚类,对栖息地进行适宜性分级,分级结果与同期鹭科水鸟实测数据做拟合,精度达到77.4%。最后采集2009年1月份各变量因子数据对回归方程进行时间尺度检验,与同期实测鹭科水鸟数据拟合精度同样达到75.8%,模型具有较好的通用性。     

嘉陵江南充段冬季迁徙水鸟的迁徙时序及数量变化

2008年10月~2009年4月采用固定样线法对嘉陵江南充段冬季水鸟的迁徙时序及数量变化进行了监测.在记录到的26种冬季迁徙水鸟中(针尾鸭除外),10月迁入该地的有斑嘴鸭、白骨顶等6种;11月迁入的水鸟种类最多,包括红嘴鸥、赤麻鸭等11种;12月迁入的有凤头潜鸭、普通秋沙鸭等6种;1月迁入该地的有翘鼻麻鸭和罗纹鸭2种;...     

不同尺度下停歇点湿地对迁徙水鸟的影响研究综述

停歇点湿地是迁徙水鸟重要的能量补给地,在水鸟每年的往返迁徙过程中具有十分重要的生态意义。近年来随着全球变化和人类活动增加,迁飞路线上的停歇点湿地正发生剧烈变化。各个停歇点湿地的生境变化及周围环境不仅是影响水鸟栖息地适宜性的重要因素,还改变了各路线上迁徙水鸟的种群大小和群落多样性。分析不同尺度下停歇点湿地影响迁徙水鸟种群变化的主要生态因子和环境因素,不仅有助于理解各停歇点景观变化的生态效应,也可为迁徙水鸟种群保护提供理论支持。首先分析了在栖息地斑块尺度上停歇点湿地内的水、食物、栖息地格局和人类干扰等生态要素对水鸟觅食和栖息活动的影响;其次,分析了景观尺度上湿地周围的气候变化、土地利用和外来生物等环境条件在各停歇点对水鸟栖息地质量的改变;最后,基于多尺度条件下湿地影响因素的耦合效应,分析了当前湿地生境与水鸟种群关系研究中存在的主要问题,并总结了对湿地和水鸟保护的启示。     

黄渤海濒危水鸟栖息地动态变化研究

中国滨海湿地是东亚-澳大利西亚迁徙路线上候鸟重要的停歇地、繁殖地和越冬地,土地利用变化所引发的滨海湿地退化导致水鸟栖息地类别和面积发生了很大转变,影响迁徙水鸟种群数量的稳定性。然而,土地利用变化在哪些区域和多大程度上影响了迁徙水鸟的栖息地分布尚不清晰。以土地围垦典型区域黄渤海滨海湿地为研究区,以受胁濒危水鸟物种勺嘴鹬、大滨鹬、大杓鹬、小青脚鹬、黑脸琵鹭、黄嘴白鹭、遗鸥、黑嘴鸥为研究对象,结合物种分布模型MaxEnt和GIS空间分析,模拟2000、2015、2020年水鸟栖息地时空分布,探索过去20年栖息地分布的时空变化,分析水鸟种群变化趋势,识别水鸟栖息地保护优先区域,提出水鸟栖息地保护管理建议。结果显示：2000—2020年,8个水鸟物种栖息地主要分布在渤海湾、莱州湾、江苏盐城沿岸、如东-东台沿岸区域。所有物种的栖息地面积均呈不同程度的下降趋势,其中7个物种栖息地下降比例超过50%,下降的区域主要分布在渤海湾、江苏盐城沿岸、东台条子泥、小洋口沿岸,滨海湿地丧失是导致水鸟栖息地面积下降的直接因素。7个物种种群数量呈下降趋势。研究所确定的水鸟保护优先区面积达240.32 km^2...     

不同水位下拟建鄱阳湖水利枢纽对食块茎鸟类栖息地适宜性的影响研究

鄱阳湖为亚洲最大的候鸟栖息地,近十余年发生了枯水期提前且延长及湖区生态环境日益恶化的问题,对于此问题江西政府提出了一种科学的工程措施--鄱阳湖水利枢纽（简称枢纽）。然而,枢纽对越冬候鸟栖息地的影响尚无定量研究。以鄱阳湖食块茎鸟类--白鹤（Grus leucogeranus）、白枕鹤（Grus vipio）和小天鹅（Cygnus columbianus）的栖息地为研究对象,利用3S技术结合生态学知识,在ArcGIS平台上搭建了食块茎鸟类栖息地适宜性评价模型,使用二维水动力模型联合适宜性评价模型,生成鄱阳湖在兴建枢纽前、后的食块茎鸟类栖息地适宜性分布图。选取工程调度时期水位相对稳定时段,以鄱阳湖无枢纽状态下星子水位为基础,探究鄱阳湖在不同水位时,有拟建枢纽和无拟建枢纽状态下食块茎鸟类的栖息地适宜性的变化,定量分析拟建枢纽对候鸟栖息地适宜性造成的影响。研究发现：枢纽的调度规则具有一定的科学性,水位调度方案对湖泊食块茎鸟类越冬初期栖息产生的影响较小,但会牺牲一部分越冬后期适合食块茎鸟类栖息的区域。拟建枢纽选址处至都昌站的食块茎鸟类栖息地适宜性受枢纽的负面影响最为显著,各级自然保护区之中,北部省级候鸟自然保护区受其负面影响最大,此保护区将减少18.01-39.80 km²适合食块茎鸟类栖息的面积。但是枢纽的运行能增加湖泊土壤水含量,使食块茎鸟类更易于觅食,且能增加喜食块茎鸟类的食物丰富度。本研究可为为今后鄱阳湖湖区水环境规划和水生态管理维护提供一定的科学参考。     

不同麋鹿干扰强度对栖息地土壤理化特性的影响

动物对草地的采食和践踏直接影响着土壤的理化特性。以大丰麋鹿保护区半散养麋鹿为研究对象,分析了不同麋鹿干扰强度下土壤含水率、容重、全盐量、有机质、全氮、全磷和全钾的差异,探讨麋鹿放养对土壤理化性质的影响。结果表明:(1)随着麋鹿干扰强度的增加,土壤含水量和有机质呈现下降的趋势;土壤盐分、容重和氮、磷、钾全量呈现上升的趋势。(2)麋鹿放养对土壤理化指标的影响显著,重度干扰样地与对照样地之间差异性达到极显著水平(P<0.01)。(3)土壤氮、磷、钾全量,在重度干扰区域达到最大值,分别为1.56 g/kg、0.95 g/kg和13.43 g/kg,全氮量的增长幅度最大。(4)在麋鹿活动最为频繁的重度干扰区域,土壤盐分含量达到9.26 g/kg,土壤盐碱化,这是导致栖息地退化的主要原因。麋鹿干扰强度增加最终导致土壤盐渍化加重,栖息地生境明显退化,严重区域向光裸地的演化。     

30年来秦岭大熊猫栖息地变化研究

根据1976、1987和2001年3次大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)调查资料及2006～2007年大熊猫监测数据,利用ArcView GIS软件系统地比较了1976～2007年之间秦岭大熊猫栖息地的变化。秦岭大熊猫栖息地由20世纪70年代的217 100 hm2退缩到90年代前的167 000 hm2,大熊猫栖息地缩减和片断化较为严重;90年代后有所好转,面积增加到347 499 hm2,并在格局上整体存在向北向西扩散的趋势。秦岭大熊猫栖息地变化的原因主要与森林采伐及1998年实施的天然林禁伐有关,而栖息地斑块化主要与公路建设、人为活动等有关。     

1990—2015年三江平原生态功能区水禽栖息地适宜性动态

作为国际重要湿地,三江平原生态功能区是重要的水禽栖息地.随着人类活动干扰、土地利用和全球气候变化,栖息地适宜性逐渐引起生态学家的重视.本文以Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI和HJ-1B为遥感信息源,采用面向对象分类方法提取土地覆被空间信息;采用综合熵值法和层次分析法确定水源状况(湖泊和河流密度)、干扰条件(居民地和道路密度)、遮蔽物(土地覆被类型和坡度)和食物丰富度(NDVI)等因子的权重;根据水禽栖息地适宜性评价系统获得三江平原生态功能区1990、2000、2010和2015年水禽栖息地适宜性结果,并分析其时空分布和变化特征及驱动因素.结果表明: 近25年间,三江平原生态功能区水禽栖息地适宜性最好区域面积减少3.2%,主要由于湿地开垦和退化;适宜性最好区域空间分布特征明显,主要分布于黑龙江、挠力河、乌苏里江、穆棱河以及兴凯湖等水补给充足的沿岸区域.适宜性良好的区域主要分布在饶河县,到2010和2015年,虎林县和抚远县也变为适宜性良好区域的重要分布区,主要由于该区水田面积大幅增加.适宜性一般区域分布较零散,其面积先增加后减少.适宜性差的区域面积在1990—2000年间增加6.7%,2000—2015年间减少3.1%.土地覆被变化是水禽栖息地适宜性等级变化的最重要影响因素;人口和经济增长以及气候的变干、变暖使水禽栖息地适宜性降低;保护区的建立使水禽栖息地得到有效保护.     

秦皇岛黄胸鹀和蓝歌鸲的种群动态及迁徙时序——基于1999-2019年的环志数据

鸟类环志是种群监测和迁徙研究的重要手段.基于秦皇岛鸟类环志站1999～2019年的环志数据,对黄胸鹀(Emberiza aureola)和蓝歌鸲(Larvivora cyane)两种鸟类在21年间的种群动态和迁徙时序进行了分析.结果表明,迁徙途经秦皇岛的黄胸鹀种群数量以4或5年为周期呈规律性的波动下降,年均降幅达17....     

2000-2010年黄河流域植被覆盖的时空变化

黄河流域位于干旱、半干旱和半湿润地区,生态环境脆弱,近年来,在气候变化和人类活动影响下,植被覆盖状况发生了变化。因此需要对黄河流域植被覆盖的变化进行监测,进而掌握流域植被的动态变化特征。在此背景下,利用2000-2010年的250 m分辨率的MOD13Q1数据来研究黄河流域植被覆盖区域的NDVI时空变化特征。采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验来研究NDVI的变化趋势特征,通过对Theil-Sen Median趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验的结果和Hurst指数的结果的叠加,来研究NDVI的可持续特征。研究表明：1）从空间分布上看,黄河流域NDVI呈现出西部和东南部高,北部低的特征;2）从时间变化特征上看,2000-2010年植被覆盖区域年均NDVI均值在0.3-0.4之间波动,其中2000-2004年NDVI波动较大,但自2005年以来NDVI呈现快速增长的趋势;3）从变化趋势上看,2000-2010年黄河流域植被改善的区域远远大于退化的区域,改善的区域占植被覆盖区域总面积的62.9%,退化的区域占27.7%,9.4%的区域NDVI稳定不变;4）从可持续性来看,86.0%的植被覆盖区域NDVI呈现正向可持续性,即NDVI的可持续性较强;由变化趋势与Hurst指数的耦合信息得出,持续改善的面积占植被覆盖区域总面积的53.7%,持续稳定不变的区域占7.8%,持续退化的区域占24.5%,另外14.0%的区域未来变化趋势无法确定,持续退化和未来变化趋势无法确定区域的植被变化状况需要研究人员继续关注。     

万宁市小海红树林生境适宜性评价及修复分析

【目的】定量分析评估复杂环境条件与红树林分布特征之间的交互作用,探索一定区域尺度上红树林生境适宜性及适生区空间分布格局。【方法】以万宁市小海为研究区,选取水文动力、水质底质、地形高程3个大类环境变量,通过层次分析法搭建评价结构模型,结合德尔菲法获得各指标权重,并将各环境指标经归一化处理后基于GIS技术获取小海红树林适生区的空间分布。【结果】影响小海红树林生长分布的主要环境变量为水深高程、潮位、潮差、盐度等因子;研究区港北口门附近区域红树林生境适宜性较高,面积约121.6 hm²;西南侧及东南侧区域适宜性适中,面积约328.5 hm²;南侧及中间部分区域适宜性较低,面积约137.2 hm²。【结论】小海区域的气候、水质和水文动力条件均较适宜红树林存活、生长,相当一部分清退的养殖塘具备红树林种植修复的基本生态条件,但需进行生境改造,并依据生态位原理合理搭配红树物种,以期达到修复效果。     

基于生境适宜性指数模型的俚岛海黍子生境层级分布

为了深入了解海黍子生境,利用模型对山东俚岛海黍子生境进行适宜性分析,分别选取温度、盐度、水深、浊度、底质、无机氮浓度、磷酸盐浓度和距海藻床距离8种环境因子,通过层次分析法赋值因子权重,结合空间分析方法建立了海黍子HSI模型.利用该模型对山东俚岛近岸海域2018年春、秋两季的环境因子调查结果进行了海黍子生境分析.结果 表...     

Using Bayesian networks to incorporate uncertainty in habitat suitability index models

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models rarely characterize the uncertainty associated with their estimates of habitat quality despite the fact that uncertainty can have important management implications. The purpose of this paper was to explore the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) for representing and propagating 3 types of uncertainty in HSI models—uncertainty in the suitability index relationships, the parameters of the HSI equation, and measurement of habitat variables (i.e., model inputs). I constructed a BBN–HSI model, based on an existing HSI model, using Netica™ software. I parameterized the BBN's conditional probability tables via Monte Carlo methods, and developed a discretization scheme that met specifications for numerical error. I applied the model to both real and dummy sites in order to demonstrate the utility of the BBN–HSI model for 1) determining whether sites with different habitat types had statistically significant differences in HSI, and 2) making decisions based on rules that reflect different attitudes toward risk—maximum expected value, maximin, and maximax. I also examined effects of uncertainty in the habitat variables on the model's output. Some sites with different habitat types had different values for E[HSI], the expected value of HSI, but habitat suitability was not significantly different based on the overlap of 90% confidence intervals for E[HSI]. The different decision rules resulted in different rankings of sites, and hence, different decisions based on risk. As measurement uncertainty in habitat variables increased, sites with significantly different (α = 0.1) E[HSI] became statistically more similar. Incorporating uncertainty in HSI models enables explicit consideration of risk and more robust habitat management decisions. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Changes in habitat suitability influence non‐breeding distribution of waterbirds in central Europe

Waterbird species have different requirements with respect to their non‐breeding areas, aiming to survive and gain condition during the non‐breeding period. Selection of non‐breeding areas could change over time and space driven by climate change and species habitat requirements. To help explain the mechanism shaping non‐breeding area selection, we provide site‐specific analyses of distributional changes in wintering waterbirds in central Europe, located at the centre of their flyways. We use wintering waterbirds as a highly dynamic model group monitored over a long‐time scale of 50 years (1966–2015). We identified species habitat requirements and changes in habitat use at the level of 733 individual non‐breeding (specifically wintering) sites for 12 waterbird species using citizen‐science monitoring data. We calculated site‐specific mean numbers and estimated site‐specific trends in numbers. The site‐specific approach revealed a general effect of mean winter temperature of site (seven of 12 species), wetland type (all species) and land cover (all species) on site‐specific numbers. We found increasing site‐specific trends in numbers in the northern and/or eastern part of the study area (Mute Swan Cygnus olor, Eurasian Teal Anas crecca, Common Pochard Aythya ferina, Great Cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo and Eurasian Coot Fulica atra). Common Merganser Mergus merganser, Great Cormorant, Grey Heron Ardea cinerea, Common Pochard, Eurasian Coot and Common Moorhen Galinulla chloropus increased their site‐specific numbers on standing industrial waters with traditionally low fish stock. The site‐specific dynamics of bird numbers helped us to identify general preference for sites reducing winter harshness (warmer areas, running waters and more wetlands in the site vicinity), as well as indicating climate‐driven changes in spatial use of wintering sites (northern/north‐eastern range changes and changes in preference for industrial waters). This fine‐scale (site‐specific) approach can reveal large‐scale range and distribution shifts driven by climate and environmental changes regardless of the availability of large‐scale datasets.     

基于斑块尺度的神农架川金丝猴生境适宜性评价

基于斑块尺度的生境适宜性研究,可以通过物种分布的景观格局特征,推导出研究区的景观适宜性,有利于景观规划决策。研究首先分析农业用地对神农架川金丝干扰的阈值,其次采用泊松回归构建基于斑块尺度的包含植被类型、斑块特征和人为干扰特征的猴群分布模型,依据模型结果叠加道路适宜性分级图对川金丝猴适宜生境进行评价。结果显示:(1)农业用地干扰阈值为2000 m;(2)最优模型显示猴群偏好面积大、形状简单的寒温性针叶林、寒温性针叶-落叶阔叶混交林、温性针叶-落叶阔叶混交林斑块,对农业用地具有回避性;(3)道路干扰已成为川金丝猴迁移的主要障碍,川金丝猴分布区受到的农业干扰较小,但其成为阻碍川金丝猴扩张分布区的屏障。建议神农架保护区全面开展道路与旅游景点对野生动物干扰的监测。     

评估动物栖息地适宜性的两种方法比较:以大相岭山系大熊猫种群为例

采用景观因索赋值法（方法Ⅰ）和主成分分析法（方法Ⅱ）对大相岭山系大熊猫栖息地进行评价,结果表明。方法Ⅰ的结果中中等适宜、适宜等级和最适宜等级所占的面积分别为94．62、45．46和0．21km^2,分别占总面积的4．17％、2．00％和0．01％;而方法Ⅱ的结果中,中等适宜和适宜等级所占的面积分别为623．03和170.27km^2,分别占总面积的27.49％和7．51％。结合实际调查数据和景观因素,发现2种方法均能对大相岭山系大熊猫生境进行评价。但差异较大。方法Ⅰ评判因索较少。各因素所占比重较大,因索对整个评价结果影响很大,评价结果不精确,但所需人力、物力较少;方法Ⅱ所需评判因素较多,野外搜集所需资料困难,累计贡献率很难达到95％。而且需要大量的人力、物力。因此。为了减少评估误差。应将2种方法结合对动物生境进行评估。     

Relationships between survival and habitat suitability of semi‐aquatic mammals

Spatial distribution and habitat selection are integral to the study of animal ecology. Habitat selection may optimize the fitness of individuals. Hutchinsonian niche theory posits the fundamental niche of species would support the persistence or growth of populations. Although niche‐based species distribution models (SDMs) and habitat suitability models (HSMs) such as maximum entropy (Maxent) have demonstrated fair to excellent predictive power, few studies have linked the prediction of HSMs to demographic rates. We aimed to test the prediction of Hutchinsonian niche theory that habitat suitability (i.e., likelihood of occurrence) would be positively related to survival of American beaver (Castor canadensis), a North American semi‐aquatic, herbivorous, habitat generalist. We also tested the prediction of ideal free distribution that animal fitness, or its surrogate, is independent of habitat suitability at the equilibrium. We estimated beaver monthly survival probability using the Barker model and radio telemetry data collected in northern Alabama, United States from January 2011 to April 2012. A habitat suitability map was generated with Maxent for the entire study site using landscape variables derived from the 2011 National Land Cover Database (30‐m resolution). We found an inverse relationship between habitat suitability index and beaver survival, contradicting the predictions of niche theory and ideal free distribution. Furthermore, four landscape variables selected by American beaver did not predict survival. The beaver population on our study site has been established for 20 or more years and, subsequently, may be approaching or have reached the carrying capacity. Maxent‐predicted increases in habitat use and subsequent intraspecific competition may have reduced beaver survival. Habitat suitability‐fitness relationships may be complex and, in part, contingent upon local animal abundance. Future studies of mechanistic SDMs incorporating local abundance and demographic rates are needed.     

Global habitat suitability of cold‐water octocorals

Aim Three‐quarters of Octocorallia species are found in deep waters. These cold‐water octocoral colonies can form a major constituent of structurally complex habitats. The global distribution and the habitat requirements of deep‐sea octocorals are poorly understood given the expense and difficulties of sampling at depth. Habitat suitability models are useful tools to extrapolate distributions and provide an understanding of ecological requirements. Here, we present global habitat suitability models and distribution maps for seven suborders of Octocorallia: Alcyoniina, Calcaxonia, Holaxonia, Scleraxonia, Sessiliflorae, Stolonifera and Subselliflorae. Location Global. Methods We use maximum entropy modelling to predict octocoral distribution using a database of 12,508 geolocated octocoral specimens and 32 environmental grids resampled to 30 arc‐second (approximately 1 km²) resolution. Additionally, a meta‐analysis determined habitat preferences and niche overlap between the different suborders of octocorals. Results Suborder Sessiliflorae had the widest potential habitat range, but all records for all suborders implied a habitat preference for continental shelves and margins, particularly the North and West Atlantic and Western Pacific Rim. Temperature, salinity, broad scale slope, productivity, oxygen and calcite saturation state were identified as important factors for determining habitat suitability. Less than 3% of octocoral records were found in waters undersaturated for calcite, but this result is affected by a shallow‐water sampling bias. Main conclusions The logistical difficulties, expense and vast areas associated with deep‐sea sampling leads to a gap in the knowledge of faunal distributions that is difficult to fill without predictive modelling. Global distribution estimates are presented, highlighting many suitable areas which have yet to be studied. We suggest that approximately 17% of oceans are suitable for at least one suborder but 3.5% may be suitable for all seven. This is the first global habitat suitability modelling study on the distribution of octocorals and forms a useful resource for researchers, managers and conservationists.