The influence of latitude and cloud cover on the seasonality of human births

BACKGROUND: A previous study (Cummings, 2002), hypothesized that human birth seasonality was primarily related to environmental light intensity/photoperiod. PURPOSE: There are two primary goals: to explain seasonality differences between U.S., Canada, and Europe and to test the influence of environmental light intensity/photoperiod at divergent latitudes. METHODOLOGY: Existing seasonality data were extracted from previous studies at various locations throughout the world. Daily cloud cover amounts (clearness) were utilized as indices for environmental light intensity. DISCUSSION: Results were evaluated and discussed for each sub-study. CONCLUSION: Sub-study results support the hypothesis that human birth seasonality may be influenced by environmental light intensity and photoperiod. This conclusion is supported by logical links between increased light intensity/photoperiod and conceptions at different latitudes. Irrefutable proof may involve correlating long term changes in cloud cover with long term changes in human birth seasonality.     

The Seasonality of Human Births, Melatonin and Cloud Cover

Introduction: Although the seasonality of human births has been known for nearly 175 years, it has not been adequately explained. Societal and environmental reasons have often been cited as the reasons for seasonality. Since increased light is known to initiate reproduction in many animals, photoperiod, light intensity and melatonin are likely variables related to this phenomenon. This retrospective study demonstrates a logical connection between these factors and human conceptions. Methodology: Seasonality data were extracted from previous studies. Daily cloud cover amounts were utilized as indices for environmental light intensity. Variables were evaluated by Pearsonian r. Discussion: Results were evaluated and discussed in a series of 11 sub-studies involving environmental light intensity and the seasonality of human births. Conclusion: Human birth seasonality may be primarily influenced by environmental light intensity with photoperiod in a secondary role. This result is supported by significant r-values for US and Europe, a logical link between US, Canadian, Indian, European, and Hong Kong conceptions as well as the concurrent transition of conceptions and cloud cover. Israeli conceptions, however, contradict US and European patterns.     

Birth seasonality,photoperiod, and social change in the Central Canadian Arctic

Birth seasonally at high latitudes is a complex phenomenon which is undoubtedly affected by a subtle interaction between environmental rhythmicity (most notably in photoperiod and temperature) and cultural adaption. There is intriguing evidence that human gonadotrophic activity (and hence fertility) may be affected by seasonal fluctuations in light intensity and duration. Nevertheless, cultural factors are important insofar as they mediate between environmental rhythmicity and human fertility/birth patterns. This article examines the distribution of births over several decades in an Inuit community located 300 miles north of the Arctic Circle. Several shifts in birth seasonality are noted, the most significant of which is a dramatic shift from pronounced seasonality in the 1970s to non-seasonality in the 1980s. Longitudinal ethnographic fieldwork has allowed an examination of social and economic changes accounting for the rather sudden disappearance of birth seasonality. These include increasing reliance upon wage employment and social assistance, decreased dependence upon subsistence hunting and trapping, changing attitudes on the part of young people entering their prime reproductive years, and the introduction of television, radio, and southern-style recreational activities.     

Birth seasonality in the early Spanish-Mexican colonists of California (1769-1898)

The pattern of birth seasonality in California's early Spanish-Mexican colonists between 1769 and 1898 was reconstructed using genealogical data for progeny of 657 marriages. The monthly distribution of the 3,824 births in this sample shows a strong seasonal pattern, with spring and fall peaks (corresponding to peaks in conceptions during July and February) and a low point in October. This seasonal reproductive pattern is the result of a complicated set of interactions among environmental, physiological, and cultural variables. California's strongly developed winter rainfall pattern and the 19th-century agricultural cycle clearly influenced the seasonal pattern of marriages and births in this agrarian society. Several historical processes interacted with these environmental and economic factors to transform the seasonal birth pattern of the early colonists. Through time the birth pattern becomes less variable and the birth maximum shifts from spring to early winter. This appears to be, at least in part, a result of changes in labor patterns and an increase in average parity. These data suggest a multifactorial explanation for birth seasonality, in which the timing of conceptions and births is influenced by both environmental and socioeconomic factors.     

Annual Variation in Ecology and Reproduction of Wild Simakobu (Simias concolor)

Seasonal breeding in primates is related to the degree of environmental seasonality, particularly the availability and predictability of food. Southeast Asian species in general show moderate birth seasonality due to either low environmental seasonality or unpredictable fluctuations of mast-fruiting food resources. One Southeast Asian primate, the simakobu (Simias concolor), however, has been reported to be a strict seasonal breeder with births occurring in June and July only. It is unclear whether these observations are characteristic of the species or result from a sampling bias. To address this question, we documented the annual distribution of 11 births in eight groups of simakobu over two consecutive years at Pungut, an undisturbed site on Siberut Island, Indonesia. We assessed annual variation in ecology and reproduction via rainfall, temperature, food availability, feeding time, physical condition, conceptions, and births. Mean monthly temperature was nearly constant (26.3–27.1?°C), and monthly precipitation always high (219–432?mm). Although simakobu foods were abundant year-round, there were two fruit-feeding peaks in June and September. In contrast to previous reports, we documented births in 7?mo. Most births occurred in October (45?%), the wettest month of the year, and most conceptions in March and April, following a peak in unripe fruit availability. Although sample sizes are very small, females seemed to conceive when their physical condition was best, suggesting that simakobu time conceptions flexibly to the recovery of energy reserves. Across study sites, births occurred in 10 calendar months, indicating that simakobu reproduction is not strictly seasonal.     

Effects of the fertility transition on birth seasonality in the Netherlands

Synchronous with the decline in fertility that took place in the post-war period in the Netherlands, patterns of birth seasonality changed as well. In this paper seasonal fluctuations in fertility in the Netherlands are examined using population register data for the period 1952 to 2005. The peak in births has changed from spring to summer and subsequently to August/September, thereby shifting from the European to the American pattern. The seasonal shift can be attributed to parity-specific changes. Before the transition, birth seasonality did not differ much between the different parities. In the transition period from higher to low fertility, differences between parities increased which persist up to today. At present, the overall seasonality pattern is determined by first births. Moreover, birth seasonality varies by maternal age. The findings stimulate the discussion on the role of planning as a cause of birth seasonality.     

The ecology of human birth seasonally

This article examines birth seasonality in two environmentally and ethnographically distinct societies: the Copper Inuit of the Central Canadian Arctic and the Samukundi Abelam of Papua New Guinea. Although the regions inhabited by these societies differ dramatically in degrees of seasonal variation, both populations display significant seasonality in conceptions and births. For the Copper Inuit, such seasonal variation was found to be the consequence of social and economic responses to extreme environmental change. Birth seasonality for the Samukundi Abelam is also pronounced and was determined to be the result of social ideologies which are only indirectly linked to environmental factors. The article also proposes a research paradigm designed to facilitate the cross-cultural investigation of birth seasonality in human populations.     

Seasonal variation of livebirths, stillbirths, extramarital births and twin maternities in Switzerland.

A study was made of the seasonal variation in all births, and births according to marital status, multiplicity and birth status (live and still) in Switzerland recorded between 1876 and 1990. To obtain seasonal variation in as pure as possible form, our analyses are based on rates. When comparing the seasonality in data sets showing markedly different levels, standardised indices were used. Assuming the length of pregnancies with twins to be about one month shorter than for pregnancies with singletons, lagged twinning rates were calculated but, in comparison with actual twinning rates, the general seasonal variation remained. Therefore, this study was based on actual twinning rates. A monotonic increase in the amplitude of the seasonal variation in general births was noted for the period 1876-1930, with strong seasonal variation holding for 1921-1980. After that, a marked decline in the amplitude can be observed. Seasonality of both all births and twin maternities showed very similar pattern for the periods 1876-1930 and 1969-1990, with maxima in the spring (March-May) and troughs in late autumn (October-December). Twin maternities showed a strong seasonality for the period 1876-1930, being about 20% higher in March than in October. The twinning rate in the period 1876-1930 was about 2.6 per thousand units higher than in the period 1969-90. For twin maternities there was also a stronger seasonal variation during the earlier period than during the later one. The pattern of the seasonal variation for extramarital births, showing a maximum in February (conceptions in May-June) and a minimum in August (conceptions in November-December) with a difference of no less than 24% was more marked than for the marital births. It seems likely that this seasonality of extra-marital maternities was due mainly to seasonal variation of coital rates and multiple ovulation in the early summer months coinciding with optima of light, temperature and food supply. A strong reduction in the rate of stillbirths (gestational age more than 29 weeks) was observed during the twentieth century. The stillbirth rate declined from about 40 per 1000 in the 1870s to fewer than 5 per 1000 in the 1980s. Irrespective of this strong decline in the stillbirth rate, the same seasonal rhythm was noticed throughout the period with high stillbirth rates among births around March and low rates during the summer and autumn.     

Controls over reproductive phenology among ungulates: allometry and tropical‐temperate contrasts

Ungulates inhabiting high latitudes schedule the timing of conceptions so that offspring are born during the most favourable nutritional conditions for reproductive success. The optimal period for births is less reliably predictable in tropical and subtropical savanna environments where plant growth is governed by rainfall, suggesting that reproductive phenology could be influenced more proximately by resources affecting the body condition of females around the time of conceptions. To assess how these controls operate, we compared the timing of births and conceptions among tropical and subtropical savanna ungulates with the patterns shown by ungulates in northern temperate or subarctic latitudes. The association between the timing of births and the onset of plant growth early in the growing season is less consistent among tropical savanna ungulates than among ungulates inhabiting northern temperate environments, and apparently subject to other influences affecting vegetation phenology. Nevertheless, birth peaks seem to coincide with the time of the year when forage quality is expected to be best for offspring survival and growth for most tropical or subtropical ungulates with gestation periods shorter than a year. When gestation time exceeds one year, proximal effects of nutritional conditions around the time of conceptions apparently become overriding and birth synchrony with early season plant growth is no longer effective. Proximate nutritional influences on conceptions may also govern the somewhat diffuse spread of births shown by ungulate populations in equatorial latitudes where photoperiod cues controlling oestrus and mating cannot be used to schedule the later timing of births.     

How Rainfall Variation Influences Reproductive Patterns of African Savanna Ungulates in an Equatorial Region Where Photoperiod Variation Is Absent

In high temperate latitudes, ungulates generally give birth within a narrow time window when conditions are optimal for offspring survival in spring or early summer, and use changing photoperiod to time conceptions so as to anticipate these conditions. However, in low tropical latitudes day length variation is minimal, and rainfall variation makes the seasonal cycle less predictable. Nevertheless, several ungulate species retain narrow birth peaks under such conditions, while others show births spread quite widely through the year. We investigated how within-year and between-year variation in rainfall influenced the reproductive timing of four ungulate species showing these contrasting patterns in the Masai Mara region of Kenya. All four species exhibited birth peaks during the putative optimal period in the early wet season. For hartebeest and impala, the birth peak was diffuse and offspring were born throughout the year. In contrast, topi and warthog showed a narrow seasonal concentration of births, with conceptions suppressed once monthly rainfall fell below a threshold level. High rainfall in the previous season and high early rains in the current year enhanced survival into the juvenile stage for all the species except impala. Our findings reveal how rainfall variation affecting grass growth and hence herbivore nutrition can govern the reproductive phenology of ungulates in tropical latitudes where day length variation is minimal. The underlying mechanism seems to be the suppression of conceptions once nutritional gains become insufficient. Through responding proximally to within-year variation in rainfall, tropical savanna ungulates are less likely to be affected adversely by the consequences of global warming for vegetation phenology than northern ungulates showing more rigid photoperiodic control over reproductive timing.     

Discordant longitudinal clines in flowering time and phytochrome C in Arabidopsis thaliana

Using seasonal cues to time reproduction appropriately is crucial for many organisms. Plants in particular often use photoperiod to signal the time to transition to flowering. Because seasonality varies latitudinally, adaptation to local climate is expected to result in corresponding clines in photoperiod-related traits. By experimentally manipulating photoperiod cues and measuring the flowering responses and photoperiod plasticity of 138 Eurasian accessions of Arabidopsis thaliana, we detected strong longitudinal but not latitudinal clines in flowering responses. The presence of longitudinal clines suggests that critical photoperiod cues vary among populations occurring at similar latitudes. Haplotypes at PHYC, a locus hypothesized to play a role in adaptation to light cues, were also longitudinally differentiated. Controlling for neutral population structure revealed that PHYC haplotype influenced flowering time; however, the distribution of PHYC haplotypes occurred in the opposite direction to the phenotypic cline, suggesting that loci other than PHYC are responsible for the longitudinal pattern in photoperiod response. Our results provide previously missing empirical support for the importance of PHYC in mediating photoperiod sensitivity in natural populations of A. thaliana. However, they also suggest that other loci and epistatic interactions likely play a role in the determination of flowering time and that the environmental factors influencing photoperiod in plants vary longitudinally as well as latitudinally.     

Association of seasonal reproductive patterns with changing food availability in an equatorial carnivore, the spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta).

Reproductive seasonality was examined in an equatorial population of free-living spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta) in Kenya. The study population was observed continuously for 10 years, during which time the dates of all births, conceptions, weanings, and cub deaths were recorded. Local prey abundance was estimated two to four times per month, and rainfall was recorded daily throughout the study period. Births occurred during every month of the year, but a distinct trough in births occurred from February to May. This trough occurred approximately one gestation period after the phase of the annual cycle during which prey animals were least abundant in the home range of the hyaenas, and conceptions occurred most frequently when food abundance was greatest. Neither rainfall nor cub mortality were correlated with births or conceptions. Thus, although spotted hyaenas are capable of breeding throughout the year, they exhibit a moderate degree of seasonality that most likely reflects responses to seasonal variation in energy availability.     

Seasonality of conception in human populations in Chile

Seasonality of conceptions in human populations in Chile was studied for a period of 30 years (1945–1974). Clear seasonal conception courses exist in the country, exception made of the northern and southern extremes. Seasonal flux is concentrated mainly in January, but also secondary increases in April and June were observed. Along the 30-year period a general pattern of decreasing seasonality is observed. Conception is significantly related to temperature and photoperiod in this country, the maximum rates of conceptions being observed in coincidence with the maximum temperatures and photoperiods. Nonclimatic factors which may be affecting seasonality of conceptions are also discussed.     

Seasonality of reproduction in captive squirrel monkeys (Saimiri Sciureus)

Seasonality of reproduction is believed to be influenced by environmental factors such as humidity, temperature, and photoperiod. In primates, there has been much speculation about which environmental factors have the greatest influence on reproductive seasonality. To determine whether environmental factors affect seasonality of reproduction of squirrel monkeys in captivity, I used path analysis to compare number of births and matings per month with monkeys kept in indoor enclosures (maintained at optimal temperatures) and those kept in outdoor enclosures (exposed to the elements). Since a different pattern of seasonality was found to occur, I was able to test whether temperature, rainfall, or photoperiod could explain the temporal variation in reproduction. Squirrel monkeys raised in captivity displayed different patterns of seasonality of reproduction, depending on the conditions in which they are housed ( chi(2)3 25.12, P<0.001; G = 28.10, P<0.001). Temperature seemed to have a large impact on number of births and matings per month (matings: path coefficient = 0.799; births: path coefficient = -1.315). Understanding what factors regulate reproduction for animals and how these factors affect reproduction differently in wild versus captive populations are important to conservation and management of species.     

Seasonal variation in conception and various pregnancy outcomes

Abstract

U.S. vital registration data on live births and data on abortions and ectopic pregnancies from a national hospital discharge survey were used to examine the seasonality of conceptions and the influence the conception pattern has on the monthly incidence of abortions and ectopic pregnancies. We found that in the United States conceptions follow a consistent seasonal pattern with the peak in November and December. However, when the pattern for conceptions is controlled, the monthly variation for abortions and ectopic pregnancies is not significant. Therefore, we find no monthly excess for any of these outcomes of pregnancy over that expected as a consequence of the seasonality of conception. We suggest the monthly variation for the number of each of these pregnancy outcomes will best be explained when the seasonal variation in conceptions is understood.     

Climate change and seasonal reproduction in mammals

Seasonal reproduction is common among mammals at all latitudes, even in the deep tropics. This paper (i) discusses the neuroendocrine pathways via which foraging conditions and predictive cues such as photoperiod enforce seasonality, (ii) considers the kinds of seasonal challenges mammals actually face in natural habitats, and (iii) uses the information thus generated to suggest how seasonal reproduction might be influenced by global climate change. Food availability and ambient temperature determine energy balance, and variation in energy balance is the ultimate cause of seasonal breeding in all mammals and the proximate cause in many. Photoperiodic cueing is common among long-lived mammals from the highest latitudes down to the mid-tropics. It is much less common in shorter lived mammals at all latitudes. An unknown predictive cue triggers reproduction in some desert and dry grassland species when it rains. The available information suggests that as our climate changes the small rodents of the world may adapt rather easily but the longer lived mammals whose reproduction is regulated by photoperiod may not do so well. A major gap in our knowledge concerns the tropics; that is where most species live and where we have the least understanding of how reproduction is regulated by environmental factors.     

Seasonality of births: stability and change in a developing country

A marked seasonality of births for the two main ethnic groups of peninsular Malaysia, far exceeding the cyclic fluctuations in births in the United States and Canada, was reported for the 1960s. A 36% excess of births over the average monthly number was observed among Malays each January. Among the ethnic Chinese in Malaysia a regular periodicity in the numbers of births was also found, but it was far less marked and the peak occurred in October or November. The peaks in both groups were due in large measure to conceptions that correlate with religious observances or holidays. Here I report on cyclic birth patterns in peninsular Malaysia for the period 1970-1985. Rapid economic development has occurred during this time and has brought with it demographic changes, such as a massive rise in contraceptive use and a decline in birth rates. These demographic changes have been accompanied by the loss of the pronounced seasonal pattern of births among the Malays. The seasonality of Malay births is now of roughly the same magnitude as the seasonality in the United States and Canada, whereas seasonality of births among the Chinese in Malaysia remains essentially unchanged.     

Seasonality of reproduction of wild black-and-white snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti) at Mt. Lasha, Yunnan, China

Black-and-white snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti) inhabit one of the harshest habitats by any nonhuman primate. Reliable predictive cues to initiate reproduction may be particularly critical for R. bieti because they inhabit such seasonally energetically challenging environments. To better understand the seasonal distribution of and predictive cues to reproduction, we collected breeding and birth data in a population of R. bieti at Mt. Lasha in Yunling Nature Reserve, Yunnan, China, from January 2008 to May 2010, using a combination of 10-min instantaneous scans and ad libitum observations. We examined variations in temperature, rainfall, and food availability, as well as photoperiod differences between Mt. Lasha and the more northerly Xiaochangdu to identify environmental influences on the timing of reproductive events. Our data show the area exhibited distinct seasonal fluctuations in rainfall, temperature, and food availability. Mating occurred year-round, but peaked in August, coinciding with the end of the period of highest temperatures and food availability, and during the peak rainfall. Copulation frequency peaked 1 month after corresponding peaks in staple foods, rainfall, and minimum temperatures, and 3-4 months after peaks in high-quality foods. Births were significantly seasonal, with a birth peak from mid-February to early April, and a mean birth date of 14 March. Eleven births occurred in 41 days in 2009, and 16 births occurred in 52 days in 2010. Births occurred during periods of increasing temperatures and food availability. Our findings are suggestive of at least one environmental control of conception timing, and support the notion that food availability during key reproductive stages is an ultimate factor for birth seasonality, but provide no supporting evidence for photoperiod during the conception season as a proximate cue to reproduction in R. bieti.     

Environmental and social cues can be used in combination to develop sustainable breeding techniques for goat reproduction in the subtropics

Goat breeds from subtropical latitudes show different annual reproductive cycles. Some of them display large seasonal variations in their annual breeding season, while others display a moderate seasonality or sexual activity all year round. This reproductive seasonality causes seasonality of milk, cheese and meat productions and, as a consequence, induces wide variation in producer incomes. To solve this problem and provide methods allowing producers to breed animals during the anestrous period and stabilize production all year round, it is necessary to have a deep knowledge of their annual sexual activity and to identify the environmental factors controlling the timing of the annual reproductive cycle. Then, it is possible to build on these knowledge sustainable breeding techniques adapted to the environmental, economic and social characteristics of the local breeding system. In this review, I will illustrate this strategy through the example of our experiments in subtropical goats. First, we determined the characteristics of the annual breeding season in both male and female goats. Second, we identified the photoperiod as the major environmental factor controlling the timing of this annual breeding season. Third, we used the photoperiod to stimulate indirectly the sexual behavior of does. Indeed, we used photoperiodic treatments to stimulate the sexual activity of bucks during the non-breeding season. These sexually active male goats were then used to induce and synchronize the estrous behavior and ovulatory activity of anestrous females in confined or grazing conditions by using the 'male effect'. Under subtropical conditions, these results constitute an original manner to control the reproductive activity of local goats using the photoperiod combined with the 'male effect.'     

Photoperiodism in humans and other primates: evidence and implications

Most of the anatomical and molecular substrates of the system that encodes changes in photoperiod in the duration of melatonin secretion, and the receptor molecules that read this signal, have been shown to be conserved in monkeys and humans, and the functions of this system appear to be intact from the level of the retina to the level of the melatonin-duration signal of change of season. While photoperiodic seasonal breeding has been shown to occur in monkeys, it remains unclear whether photoperiod and mediation of photoperiod's effects by melatonin influence human reproduction. Epidemiological evidence suggests that inhibition of fertility by heat in men in summer contributes to seasonal variation in human reproduction at lower latitudes and that stimulation of fertility by lengthening of the photoperiod in spring contributes to the variation at higher latitudes. Parallels between the seasonality of human reproduction and seasonal affective disorder suggest that they may be governed by common biological processes. Historical and experimental evidence indicates that human responses to seasonal changes in the natural photoperiod may have been more robust prior to the Industrial Revolution and that subsequently they have been increasingly suppressed by alterations of the physical environment.