Not as the crow flies: a historical explanation for circuitous migration in Swainson's thrush (Catharus ustulatus)

Many migratory songbirds follow circuitous migratory routes instead of taking the shortest path between overwintering and breeding areas. Here, we study the migration patterns in Swainson's thrush (Catharus ustulatus), a neartic-neotropical migrant songbird, using molecular genetic approaches. This species is presently separated into genetically distinct coastal and continental populations that diverged during the Late Pleistocene (as indicated by molecular dating), yet appear to have retained ancestral patterns of migration. Low nucleotide diversity, a star-like haplotype phylogeny and unimodal mismatch distributions all support the hypothesis that both the coastal and the continental populations have undergone recent demographic expansions. Nearctic-neotropical banding and genetic data show nearly complete segregation of migratory routes and of overwintering locations: coastal populations migrate along the Pacific Coast to overwintering sites in Central America and Mexico, whereas continental populations migrate along an eastern route to overwintering sites in Panama and South America. Nearctic-neotropical banding data also show that continental birds north, northwest and east of this migratory divide fly thousands of miles east before turning south. We conclude that circuitous migration in the Swainson's thrush is an artefact of a Late Pleistocene range expansion.     

Genetic, morphological, and ecological characterization of a hybrid zone that spans a migratory divide

This study characterizes a hybrid zone that spans a migratory divide between subspecies of the Swainson's thrush (Catharus ustulatus), a long distance migratory songbird, in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia. To assess the potential for a barrier to gene flow between the subspecies, I: (1) analyzed the shape and width of genetic and morphological clines relative to estimates of dispersal distance, (2) assessed the ratio of parental to hybrid genotypes across the hybrid zone, (3) estimated population density across the hybrid zone, and (4) compared the spatial relationship between the hybrid zone and an existing environmental gradient. The results indicate that the hybrid zone is characterized by mostly concordant character clines that are narrow relative to dispersal, the absence of a hybrid swarm, and low population density at the center of the zone. This hybrid zone and additional regions of contact between these subspecies are found on the border between coastal and interior climatic regions throughout the Pacific Northwest. An identified shift in the location, but not the width, of the mtDNA cline relative to the nuclear clines is consistent with asymmetrical hybridization. Neutral diffusion of populations following secondary contact and hybrid superiority within an ecotone are insufficient explanations for the observed patterns. The hypothesis that best fits the data is that the Swainson's thrush hybrid zone is a tension zone maintained by dispersal and ecologically mediated barriers to gene flow.     

Phylogeography of European moose (Alces alces) based on contemporary mtDNA data and archaeological records

Phylogeography can help to determine LGM refugia and postglacial migration routes. However, the locations of LGM refugial areas in eastern Europe are not clear. Moose (Alces alces) is presently a common species in central and north-eastern Europe, but there are no studies showing its phylogenetic pattern and genetic diversity across its whole continuous range. Moose never became extinct in the eastern part of its range, and the eastern mtDNA lineage has the largest effective population size. The present study shows the phylogeographic pattern and genetic diversity of European moose and compares the results of mtDNA analyses with the archaeological record of the species to identify its LGM refugia and postglacial migration routes. I combined the mtDNA control region sequences obtained in all studies of moose in Europe and western Asia. The genetic data were then compared with the archaeological records of the species dated to the LGM. I found that the European moose lineage inhabits Europe and western Asia. It is composed of two clades: the eastern and the central-western, consisting of a total of six discrete haplogroups. The most complex, the eastern clade, has the largest range. Some of the haplogroups have narrow or scattered distributions and two are common in almost the whole range. Genetic diversity hotspots were detected in contact zones of different mtDNA haplogroups rather than in the LGM refugial areas of moose. Archaeological records dated to the LGM were found in several localities in central, southern and eastern Europe as well as in western Asia. The range of the moose during the LGM was much larger than previously thought. The eastern clade survived the LGM in western Siberia, the Ural Mountains and Russian plain. LGM refugia of moose were also located in the Caucasus, Carpathians, Balkans and northern Italy.     

Origin and post-glacial dispersal of mitochondrial DNA haplogroups C and D in northern Asia

More than a half of the northern Asian pool of human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is fragmented into a number of subclades of haplogroups C and D, two of the most frequent haplogroups throughout northern, eastern, central Asia and America. While there has been considerable recent progress in studying mitochondrial variation in eastern Asia and America at the complete genome resolution, little comparable data is available for regions such as southern Siberia--the area where most of northern Asian haplogroups, including C and D, likely diversified. This gap in our knowledge causes a serious barrier for progress in understanding the demographic pre-history of northern Eurasia in general. Here we describe the phylogeography of haplogroups C and D in the populations of northern and eastern Asia. We have analyzed 770 samples from haplogroups C and D (174 and 596, respectively) at high resolution, including 182 novel complete mtDNA sequences representing haplogroups C and D (83 and 99, respectively). The present-day variation of haplogroups C and D suggests that these mtDNA clades expanded before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with their oldest lineages being present in the eastern Asia. Unlike in eastern Asia, most of the northern Asian variants of haplogroups C and D began the expansion after the LGM, thus pointing to post-glacial re-colonization of northern Asia. Our results show that both haplogroups were involved in migrations, from eastern Asia and southern Siberia to eastern and northeastern Europe, likely during the middle Holocene.     

Evolution and biogeography of New Zealand's longjaw galaxiids (Osmeriformes: Galaxiidae): the genetic effects of glaciation and mountain building

1. The biological impact of glaciation in Southern Hemisphere freshwaters is poorly understood. Several large rivers of eastern South Island, New Zealand, represent a mosaic of glaciated and non-glaciated regions, and are thus well-suited for studies of post-glacial recolonization.
2. We conducted mtDNA analyses of South Island's endemic non-migratory longjaw galaxiids Galaxias prognathus and G. cobitinis (Osmeriformes: Galaxiidae) to test hypotheses of post-glacial recolonization, and to assess the vicariant effects of Pleistocene mountain building.
3. We analysed the phylogeography of longjaw cytochrome b sequences from 38 sites in central South Island ( n  = 83). On the basis of our sampling it seems that G. prognathus and G. cobitinis have a parapatric distribution in the Waitaki River system, their disjunction broadly coinciding with three large post-glacial lakes. Waitaki clades of both species are deeply divergent relative to conspecific taxa in drainages to the north and south.
4. Tests for recent population growth – predicted under post-glacial expansion of G. prognathus – do not refute recent recolonization of streams above glaciated lakes in the Waitaki River drainage. The apparent absence of potential 'source' populations from non-glaciated regions suggests a post-glacial population decline for G. prognathus below the Waitaki lakes.
5. Molecular clock calibrations based on several freshwater vicariant events elsewhere in New Zealand supported the geologically-derived hypothesis of Waitaki–Canterbury drainage isolation approximately 300 ka.     

Genetic signature of recent glaciation on populations of a near-shore marine fish species (Syngnathus leptorhynchus)

Continental glaciation has played a major role in shaping the present-day phylogeography of freshwater and terrestrial species in the Northern Hemisphere. Recent work suggests that coastal glaciation during ice ages may have also had a significant impact on marine species. The bay pipefish, Syngnathus leptorhynchus , is a near-shore Pacific coast fish species with an exceptionally wide latitudinal distribution, ranging from Bahia Santa Maria, Baja California to Prince William Sound, Alaska. Survey data indicate that S. leptorhynchus is experiencing a range expansion at the northern limit of its range, consistent with colonization from southern populations. The present study uses six novel microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence data to study the present-day population genetic structure of four coastal populations of S. leptorhynchus . Deficits in mtDNA and nuclear DNA diversity in northern populations from regions glaciated during the last glacial maximum (LGM) [ c . 18 000 years before present ( bp )] suggest that these populations were effected by glacial events. Direct estimates of population divergence times derived from both isolation and isolation-with-migration models of evolution are also consistent with a postglacial phylogenetic history of populations north of the LGM. Sequence data further indicate that a population at the southern end of the species range has been separated from the three northern populations since long before the last interglacial event ( c . 130 000 years bp ), suggesting that topographical features along the Pacific coast may maintain population separation in regions unimpacted by coastal glaciation.     

Colonization and/or mitochondrial selective sweeps across the North Atlantic intertidal assemblage revealed by multi‐taxa approximate Bayesian computation

Intertidal and subtidal communities of the western and eastern coasts of the North Atlantic Ocean were greatly affected by Pleistocene glaciations, with some taxa persisting on both coasts, and others recolonizing after being extirpated on one coast during the Last Glacial Maximum. In the original spirit of comparative phylogeography, we conducted a comparative analysis using mtDNA sequence data and a hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach for testing these two scenarios across 12 intertidal and subtidal coastal invertebrates spanning the North Atlantic to determine the temporal dynamics of species membership of these two ephemeral communities. Conditioning on a low gene‐flow model, our results suggested that a colonization or mitochondrial selective sweep history was predominant across all taxa, with only the bivalve mollusc Mytilus edulis showing a history of trans‐Atlantic persistence. Conditioning on a high gene‐flow model weakened the support for this assemblage‐level demographic history. The predominance of a colonization‐type history also highlights concerns about analyses based on single‐locus data where genetic hitchhiking may be incorrectly inferred as colonization. In conclusion, driving factors in shifting species range distributions and membership of ephemeral coastal communities could be species‐specific environmental tolerances, species interactions, and/or stochastic demographic extinction. Through a re‐examination of a long‐standing question of North Atlantic phylogeography, we highlight the flexibility and statistical honesty of using a model‐based ABC approach.     

Inferring long-distance dispersal and topographic barriers during post-glacial colonization from the genetic structure of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) in New England

Aim  This study aims to assess the role of long-distance seed dispersal and topographic barriers in the post-glacial colonization of red maple ( Acer rubrum L.) using chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) variation, and to understand whether this explains the relatively higher northern diversity found in eastern North American tree species compared with that in Europe.
Location  North-eastern United States.
Methods  The distribution of intraspecific cpDNA variation in temperate tree populations has been used to identify aspects of post-glacial population spread, including topographic barriers to population expansion and spread by long-distance seed dispersal. We sequenced c.  370 cpDNA base pairs from 221 individuals in 100 populations throughout the north-eastern United States, and analysed spatial patterns of diversity and differentiation.
Results  Red maple has high genetic diversity near its northern range limit, but this diversity is not partitioned by topographic barriers, suggesting that the northern Appalachian Mountains were not a barrier to the colonization of red maple. We also found no evidence of the patchy genetic structure that has been associated with spread by rare long-distance seed dispersal in previous studies.
Main conclusions  Constraints on post-glacial colonization in eastern North America seem to have been less stringent than those in northern Europe, where bottlenecks arising from long-distance colonization and topographic barriers appear to have strongly reduced genetic diversity. In eastern North America, high northern genetic diversity may have been maintained by a combination of frequent long-distance dispersal, minor topographic obstacles and diffuse northern refugia near the ice sheet.     

Inferring the past to predict the future: climate modelling predictions and phylogeography for the freshwater gastropod Radix balthica (Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Understanding the impact of past climatic events on species may facilitate predictions of how species will respond to future climate change. To this end, we sampled populations of the common pond snail Radix balthica over the entire species range (northwestern Europe). Using a recently developed analytical framework that employs ecological niche modelling to obtain hypotheses that are subsequently tested with statistical phylogeography, we inferred the range dynamics of R. balthica over time. A Maxent modelling for present-day conditions was performed to infer the climate envelope for the species, and the modelled niche was used to hindcast climatically suitable range at the last glacial maximum (LGM) c . 21 000 years ago. Ecological niche modelling predicted two suitable areas at the LGM within the present species range. Phylogeographic model selection on a COI mitochondrial DNA data set confirmed that R. balthica most likely spread from these two disjunct refuges after the LGM. The match observed between the potential range of the species at the LGM given its present climatic requirements and the phylogeographically inferred refugial areas was a clear argument in favour of niche conservatism in R. balthica , thus allowing to predict the future range. The subsequent projection of the potential range under a global change scenario predicts a moderate pole-ward shift of the northern range limits, but a dramatic loss of areas currently occupied in France, western Great Britain and southern Germany.     

Phylogeography of the world's tallest angiosperm, Eucalyptus regnans: evidence for multiple isolated Quaternary refugia

Aim There is a need for more Southern Hemisphere phylogeography studies, particularly in Australia, where, unlike much of Europe and North America, ice sheet cover was not extensive during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This study examines the phylogeography of the south‐east Australian montane tree species Eucalyptus regnans. The work aimed to identify any major evolutionary divergences or disjunctions across the species’ range and to examine genetic signatures of past range contraction and expansion events. Location South‐eastern mainland Australia and the large island of Tasmania. Methods We determined the chloroplast DNA haplotypes of 410 E. regnans individuals (41 locations) based on five chloroplast microsatellites. Genetic structure was examined using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), and a statistical parsimony tree was constructed showing the number of nucleotide differences between haplotypes. Geographic structure in population genetic diversity was examined with the calculation of diversity parameters for the mainland and Tasmania, and for 10 regions. Regional analysis was conducted to test hypotheses that some areas within the species’ current distribution were refugia during the LGM and that other areas have been recolonized by E. regnans since the LGM. Results Among the 410 E. regnans individuals analysed, 31 haplotypes were identified. The statistical parsimony tree shows that haplotypes divided into two distinct groups corresponding to mainland Australia and Tasmania. The distribution of haplotypes across the range of E. regnans shows strong geographic patterns, with many populations and even certain regions in which a particular haplotype is fixed. Many locations had unique haplotypes, particularly those in East Gippsland in south‐eastern mainland Australia, north‐eastern Tasmania and south‐eastern Tasmania. Higher haplotype diversity was found in putative refugia, and lower haplotype diversity in areas likely to have been recolonized since the LGM. Main conclusions The data are consistent with the long‐term persistence of E. regnans in many regions and the recent recolonization of other regions, such as the Central Highlands of south‐eastern mainland Australia. This suggests that, in spite of the narrow ecological tolerances of the species and the harsh environmental conditions during the LGM, E. regnans was able to persist locally or contracted to many near‐coastal refugia, maintaining a diverse genetic structure.     

Phylogeography and genetic structure of northern populations of the yellow warbler (Dendroica petechia)

Phylogeographic patterns of intraspecific variation can provide insights into the population-level processes responsible for speciation and yield information useful for conservation purposes. To examine phylogeography and population structure in a migratory passerine bird at both continental and regional geographical scales, we analysed 344 bp of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequence from 155 yellow warblers (Dendroica petechia) collected from seven locations across Canada and from Alaska. There is a major subdivision between eastern (Manitoba to Newfoundland) and western (Alaska and British Columbia) populations which appears to have developed during the recent Pleistocene. Some localities within these two regions also differ significantly in their genetic composition, suggesting further subdivision on a regional geographical scale. Eastern and western birds form distinct phylogeographic entities and the clustering of all western haplotypes with two eastern haplotypes suggests that the western haplotypes may be derived from an eastern lineage. Analyses based on coalescent models support this explanation for the origin of western haplotypes. These results are consistent with important features of Mengel's model of warbler diversification. From a conservation perspective they also suggest that individual populations of migrant birds may form demographically isolated management units on a smaller scale than previously appreciated.     

Genetic and paleomodelling evidence of the population expansion of the cattle egret Bubulcus ibis in Africa during the climatic oscillations of the Late Pleistocene

Increasing aridity during glacial periods produced the retraction of forests and the expansion of arid and semi‐arid environments in Africa, with consequences for birds. Cattle egret Bubulcus ibis is a dispersive species that prefers semi‐arid environments and requires proximity to bodies of water. We expected that climatic oscillations led to the expansion of the range of the cattle egret during arid periods, such as the Last Maximum Glacial (LGM) and contraction of distribution during the Last Interglacial (LIG) period, resulting in contact of populations previously isolated. We investigated this hypothesis by evaluating the genetic structure and population history of 15 cattle egret breeding colonies located in west and South Africa using the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region, mtDNA ATPase 8 and 6, and an intron of nuclear gene transforming growth factor‐beta 2. Occurrence data and bioclimatic information were used to generate ecological niche models of three periods (present, LGM and LIG). We used the genetic and paleomodelling data to assess the responses of the cattle egret from Africa to the climatic oscillations during the late Pleistocene. Genetic data revealed low levels of genetic differentiation, signs of isolation‐by‐distance, as well as recent increases in effective population size that started during the LGM. The observed low genetic structure may be explained by recent colonization events due to the demographic expansion following the last glacial period and by dispersal capacity of this species. The paleomodels corroborated the expansion during the LGM, and a more restricted potential distribution during the LIG. Our findinds supports the hypothesis that the species range of the cattle egret expanded during arid periods and contracted during wet periods.     

Refugial origins of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus L.) inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequences

The glacial-interglacial cycles of the upper Pleistocene have had a major impact on the recent evolutionary history of Arctic species. To assess the effects of these large-scale climatic fluctuations to a large, migratory Arctic mammal, we assessed the phylogeography of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) as inferred from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence variation in the control region. Phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes seem to reflect historical patterns of fragmentation and colonization rather than clear-cut relationships among extant populations and subspecies. Three major haplogroups were detected, presumably representing three separate populations during the last glacial. The most influential one has contributed to the gene pool of all extant subspecies and seems to represent a large and continuous glacial population extending from Beringia and far into Eurasia. A smaller, more localized refugium was most likely isolated in connection with ice expansion in western Eurasia. A third glacial refugium was presumably located south of the ice sheet in North America, possibly comprising several separate refugial populations. Significant demographic population expansion was detected for the two haplogroups representing the western Eurasian and Beringian glacial populations. The former apparently expanded when the ice cap retreated by the end of the last glacial. The large continuous one, in contrast, seems to have expanded by the end of the last interglacial, indicating that the warm interglacial climate accompanied by marine transgression and forest expansion significantly confined population size on the continental mainland. Our data demonstrate that the current subspecies designation does not reflect the mtDNA phylogeography of the species, which in turn may indicate that morphological differences among subspecies have evolved as adaptive responses to postglacial environmental change.     

Phylogeography of a migratory songbird across its Canadian breeding range: Implications for conservation units

The objectives of this study were to describe and evaluate potential drivers of genetic structure in Canadian breeding populations of the Ovenbird, Seiurus aurocapilla. We performed genetic analyses on feather samples of individuals from six study sites using nuclear microsatellites. We also assessed species identity and population genetic structure of quill mites (Acariformes, Syringophilidae). For male Ovenbirds breeding in three study sites, we collected light‐level geolocator data to document migratory paths and identify the wintering grounds. We also generated paleohindcast projections from bioclimatic models of Ovenbird distribution to identify potential refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years before present) as a factor explaining population genetic structure. Birds breeding in the Cypress Hills (Alberta/Saskatchewan) may be considered a distinct genetic unit, but there was no evidence for genetic differentiation among any other populations. We found relatively strong migratory connectivity in both western and eastern populations, but some evidence of mixing among populations on the wintering grounds. There was also little genetic variation among syringophilid mites from the different Ovenbird populations. These results are consistent with paleohindcast distribution predictions derived from two different global climate models indicating a continuous single LGM refugium, with the possibility of two refugia. Our results suggest that Ovenbird populations breeding in boreal and hemiboreal regions are panmictic, whereas the population breeding in Cypress Hills should be considered a distinct management unit.     

Conservation genetics and population history of the threatened European mink Mustela lutreola, with an emphasis on the west European population

In species of great conservation concern, special attention must be paid to their phylogeography, in particular the origin of animals for captive breeding and reintroduction. The endangered European mink lives now in at least three well-separated populations in northeast, southeast and west Europe. Our aim is to assess the genetic structure of these populations to identify 'distinct population segments' (DPS) and advise captive breeding programmes. First, the mtDNA control region was completely sequenced in 176 minks and 10 polecats. The analysis revealed that the western population is characterized by a single mtDNA haplotype that is closely related to those in eastern regions but nevertheless, not found there to date. The northeast European animals are much more variable (pi = 0.012, h = 0.939), with the southeast samples intermediate (pi = 0.0012, h = 0.469). Second, 155 European mink were genotyped using six microsatellites. The latter display the same trends of genetic diversity among regions as mtDNA [gene diversity and allelic richness highest in northeast Europe (H(E) = 0.539, R(S) = 3.76), lowest in west Europe (H(E) = 0.379, R(S) = 2.12)], and provide evidences that the southeast and possibly the west populations have undergone a recent bottleneck. Our results indicate that the western population derives from a few animals which recently colonized this region, possibly after a human introduction. Microsatellite data also reveal that isolation by distance occurs in the western population, causing some inbreeding because related individuals mate. As genetic data indicate that the three populations have not undergone independent evolutionary histories for long (no phylogeographical structure), they should not be considered as distinct DPS. In conclusion, the captive breeding programme should use animals from different parts of the species' present distribution area.     

Genetic structure and colonization processes in European populations of the common vole, Microtus arvalis

The level of genetic differentiation within and between evolutionary lineages of the common vole (Microtus arvalis) in Europe was examined by analyzing mitochondrial sequences from the control region (mtDNA) and 12 nuclear microsatellite loci (nucDNA) for 338 voles from 18 populations. The distribution of evolutionary lineages and the affinity of populations to lineages were determined with additional sequence data from the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. Our analyses demonstrated very high levels of differentiation between populations (overall FST: mtDNA 70%; nucDNA 17%). The affinity of populations to evolutionary lineages was strongly reflected in mtDNA but not in nucDNA variation. Patterns of genetic structure for both markers visualized in synthetic genetic maps suggest a postglacial range expansion of the species into the Alps, as well as a potentially more ancient colonization from the northeast to the southwest of Europe. This expansion is supported by estimates for the divergence times between evolutionary lineages and within the western European lineage, which predate the last glacial maximum (LGM). Furthermore, all measures of genetic diversity within populations increased significantly with longitude and showed a trend toward increase with latitude. We conclude that the detected patterns are difficult to explain only by range expansions from separate LGM refugia close to the Mediterranean. This suggests that some M. arvalis populations persisted during the LGM in suitable habitat further north and that the gradients in genetic diversity may represent traces of a more ancient colonization of Europe by the species.     

Phylogeography of the greater horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum: contrasting results from mitochondrial and microsatellite data

Phylogeographical studies are typically based on haplotype data, occasionally on nuclear markers such as microsatellites, but rarely combine both. This is unfortunate because the use of markers with contrasting modes of inheritance and rates of evolution might provide a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of a species' history. Here we present a detailed study of the phylogeography of the greater horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum , using 1098 bp of the mitochondrial ND2 gene from 45 localities from across its Palaearctic range to infer population history. In addition, we re-analysed a large microsatellite data set available for this species and compared the results of both markers to infer population relationships and the historical processes influencing them. We show that mtDNA, the most popular marker in phylogeography studies, yielded a misleading result, and would have led us to conclude erroneously that a single expansion had taken place in Europe. Only by combining the mitochondrial and microsatellite data sets are we able to reconstruct the species' history and show two colonization events in Europe, one before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and one after it. Combining markers also revealed the importance of Asia Minor as an ancient refugium for this species and a source population for the expansion of the greater horseshoe bat into Europe before the LGM.     

Predicting the impact of climate change on Australia's most endangered snake, Hoplocephalus bungaroides

Aim  To predict how the bioclimatic envelope of the broad-headed snake (BHS) ( Hoplocephalus bungaroides ) may be redistributed under future climate warming scenarios.
Location  South-eastern New South Wales, Australia.
Methods  We used 159 independent locations for the species and 35 climatic variables to model the bioclimatic envelope for the BHS using two modelling approaches – B ioclim and M axent . Predictions were made under current climatic conditions and we also predicted the species distribution under low and high climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070.
Results  Broad-headed snakes currently encompass their entire bioclimatic envelope. Both modelling approaches predict that suitable climate space for BHS will be lost to varying degrees under both climate warming scenarios, and under the worst case, only 14% of known snake populations may persist.
Main conclusions  Areas of higher elevation within the current range will be most important for persistence of this species because they will remain relatively moist and cool even under climate change and will match the current climate envelope. Conservation efforts should focus on areas where suitable climate space may persist under climate warming scenarios. Long-term monitoring programs should be established both in these areas and where populations are predicted to become extirpated, so that we can accurately determine changes in the distribution of this species throughout its range.     

The future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels under different scenarios

Climate and land-use changes are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss and, moreover, their impacts on biodiversity are expected to increase further in the 21st century. In this study, the future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels (Spermophilus xanthoprymnus) was assessed. Accordingly, a hierarchical approach with two steps was used. First, ecological niche modelling was used to assess the impact of climate change in areas accessible to Anatolian ground squirrels through dispersal (i.e. the impact of climate change). Second, based on the habitat preferences of ground squirrels, land-use data were used to assess the impact of land-use change in suitable bioclimatic areas for Anatolian ground squirrels under present and future conditions (i.e. the combined impact of both changes). Also, priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels were identified based on in-situ climate change refugia. This study represents a first attempt to combine niche modelling and land-use data for a species in Anatolia, one of the most vulnerable regions to the drivers of biodiversity loss, because it is the region where three of biodiversity hotspots meet, and interact. Habitat suitability (i.e. suitable habitats across suitable bioclimatic areas) was projected to decline by 19–69% in the future (depending on the scenario), mainly due to the loss of suitable bioclimatic areas (47–77%, depending on the scenario) at lower elevations and in the western part of the central Anatolia and in the eastern Anatolia, suggesting that Anatolian ground squirrels will contract their range in the future, mainly due to climate change. Thus, in-situ climate change refugia were projected mainly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the central Anatolia, suggesting these regions as priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels.     

Phylogeographical approaches to assessing demographic connectivity between breeding and overwintering regions in a Nearctic-Neotropical warbler (Wilsonia pusilla)

We characterized the pattern and magnitude of phylogeographical variation among breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird, the Wilson's warbler (Wilsonia pusilla), and used this information to assess the utility of mtDNA markers for assaying demographic connectivity between breeding and overwintering regions. We found a complex pattern of population differentiation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation among populations across the breeding range. Individuals from eastern North America were differentiated from western individuals and the eastern haplotypes formed a distinct, well-supported cluster. The more diverse western group contained haplotype clusters with significant geographical structuring, but there was also broad mixing of haplotype groups such that no haplotype groups were population specific and the predominance of rare haplotypes limited the utility of frequency-based assignment techniques. Nonetheless, the existence of geographically diagnosable eastern vs. western haplotypes enabled us to characterize the distribution of these two groups across 14 overwintering locations. Western haplotypes were present at much higher frequencies than eastern haplotypes at most overwintering sites. Application of this mtDNA-based method of linking breeding and overwintering populations on a finer geographical scale was precluded by the absence of population-specific markers and by insufficient haplotype sorting among western breeding populations. Our results suggest that because migratory species such as the Wilson's warbler likely experienced extensive gene flow among regional breeding populations, molecular markers will have the greatest utility for characterizing breeding-overwintering connectivity at a broad geographical scale.