Abundance and seasonal activity of questing Ixodes ricinus ticks in their natural habitats in southern Germany in 2011

Questing ticks were sampled monthly over a period of 11 months from February, 2011 to December, 2011 at 13 sites in southern Germany using the flagging method. The ticks were identified to species, gender, and stadium. Although both I. ricinus and D. reticulatus were sampled, this study concentrated on I. ricinus, since it was the most abundant tick to be found. Additional weather data (air and soil temperature, relative air humidity, precipitation, sunshine duration) were recorded on each sampling site and the local vegetation described. A total of 14, 394 ticks was collected (7,862 larvae, 5,568 nymphs, 964 adults) and their activity was recorded in order to determine the seasonal activity pattern over different periods of the year. In contrast to the widely accepted pattern of a bimodal seasonal activity in moderate areas with a dominant peak in spring and a minor peak in autumn, a unimodal activity pattern was found for all development stages on six of the 12 sampling sites. Tick abundance was compared to weather variables. Tick host‐seeking activity was found to be significantly dependent on the temperature at ground level, precipitation, and sunshine duration as well as relative air humidity. Adult ticks showed a positive correlation with the duration of sunshine, whereas nymphs were mostly unaffected by this phenomenon.     

Immediate,lag and time window effects of meteorological factors on ST-elevation myocardial infarction incidence

The influence of several meteorological parameters on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidences with immediately and/or delayed effects has been widely reported. It remains unknown whether the individual AMI subtypes reveal similar patterns. To date, generally seasonal variation in ST elevation MI (STEMI) has been investigated. However, these approaches couldn’t detect the effects of changes in multiple meteorological variables on STEMI incidence within a specific season. Therefore, the aim of our study is to explore immediate, delayed and cumulative effects of average daily temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity on nation-wide STEMI hospital admissions. We linked daily hospitals’ STEMI admission data with meteorological stations’ data according to the patient’s permanent residence. Subsequently, a multivariate analysis based on a main effect generalised linear model, assuming a log-link function with a Poisson distribution, was conducted. With the help of lags, we were able to analyse delayed effects, while the cumulative effects of specific meteorological variables were analysed utilising time windows. As a result, we confirmed immediate and delayed negative effect of low temperature and low relative humidity for all observed lags as well as cumulative average effects of low temperature and low relative humidity for all observed time windows. However, no delayed, single-day effect for atmospheric pressure was detected. Nevertheless, the cumulative average effect was confirmed in all time windows suggesting that prolonged low pressure influences the incidence of STEMI. A novelty of our approach is the comparative examination of immediate, delayed and cumulative effect of specific meteorological variables on the incidence of STEMI. This approach enables us to gain a new insight into the phenomenon studied.     

Diurnal variability of gene arrangement frequencies in Drosophila subobscura populations from two habitats*

The rich inversion polymorphism of chromosomes of Drosophila subobscura varies in association with environmental changes at spatial and temporal level. Due to random factors this might become less regular and this might be the reason that there is little evidence of altitudinal and seasonal, microgeographic and habitat‐related variability. The variability of gene arrangement frequencies over daytime period was investigated in populations of D. subobscura from two ecologically different habitats. According to gene arrangement frequencies and inversion polymorphism parameters populations fit into the existing patterns of regional polymorphism. Even though populations display daytime variability for the frequencies of arrangements of chromosomes U and J, the nonsignificant differences in other arrangement frequencies, as well as data obtained from genetic distances between samples from different times of day, rule out the existence of subpopulations distinguished from each other by diurnal activity within two habitats. Some particular arrangement frequencies vary according to temperature and humidity and some changes appear for different karyotypic combinations between beech and oak habitat, which suggests different adaptive advantages and selective mechanisms. Cluster analysis of gene arrangement frequencies indicates some importance of A chromosome arrangements for diurnal activity and show in dependence to other ecological data that internally fixed daily activity rhythm might exists in D. subobscura. Analysis of light, temperature and humidity factors in relation to the frequency data obtained indicate a choice of different ecological niche in a temporally structured habitat due to behavioural genetic information.     

A 38‐year study of relations between weather and vegetation dynamics in road verges near Bibury, Gloucestershire

1 The Bibury long‐term data set contains information on annual fluctuations in the abundance of over 100 grasses and forbs in roadside verge vegetation over the period from 1958 to the present. Monitoring has been carried out every July by the same individual. The data set represents a unique long‐term record of the dynamics of a complete plant community.
2 Records for the most abundant taxa (including bare ground and litter) were used to determine the effect of climate variability on the year‐to‐year performance of the selected species. Residuals about the long‐term mean log biomass of each species (de‐trended where the species showed a significant increase or decrease in abundance over time) were correlated against indices of interannual climate variability. Plant and weather records were compared over 3‐month seasonal periods (March–May, June–August, September–November, December–February) or 6‐month seasonal periods (March–August, September–February), with time lags of 0, 1 and 2 years.
3 Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to formulate annual weather indices, using either conventional weather variables (temperature, rainfall and sunshine) or the Lamb catalogue of daily weather types.
4 Between 5% and 70% more correlations were observed than might be expected to occur by chance, depending on the season and the PCA index, indicating markedly non‐random plant–weather relationships. Total vegetation production was positively correlated with minimum spring temperature. The distribution of correlations was generally evenly distributed across the three lag periods.
5 In general, those species favoured by environmental stress or disturbance were promoted following warm dry springs and summers, whereas those favoured by more productive conditions were promoted following a wet growing season.     

The influence of environmental variables on capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris: Rodentia, Hydrochoeridae) detectability in anthropogenic environments of southeastern Brazil

Capybaras were monitored weekly from 1998 to 2006 by counting individuals in three anthropogenic environments (mixed agricultural fields, forest and open areas) of southeastern Brazil in order to examine the possible influence of environmental variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and global radiation) on the detectability of this species. There was consistent seasonality in the number of capybaras in the study area, with a specific seasonal pattern in each area. Log-linear models were fitted to the sample counts of adult capybaras separately for each sampled area, with an allowance for monthly effects, time trends and the effects of environmental variables. Log-linear models containing effects for the months of the year and a quartic time trend were highly significant. The effects of environmental variables on sample counts were different in each type of environment. As environmental variables affect capybara detectability, they should be considered in future species survey/monitoring programs.     

印度加尔各答市区外围一地的露尾甲物种组成、多度和季节性发生(英文)

【目的】印度大部分露尾甲在腐烂的水果和蔬菜上大量发生,其种群在一年中表现出明显的季节性波动。据推测,露尾甲种群很大程度上依赖于温度、湿度和降雨之类的环境因子。【方法】本研究调查了2013-2015年印度加尔各答市区外围一地Garia的露尾甲物种组成、季节性发生和种群结构,记录了其活跃时期、季节性多度和影响其发生的因素。【结果】调查期间在调查地共发现数目不等的6个物种。其中最常见露尾甲为Urophorus humeralis,它是个体数量最多的物种且在一年中几乎所有月份均有发生;其他常见物种为Epuraea ocularis和E. luteola。不同物种在食物发酵的连续阶段进入诱捕器中。最初12 h被捕获的是Epuraea 属的种类,而在诱捕器中食物严重腐烂的后续阶段发现最多的是U. humeralis。在合适范围的气温(22~29℃)和相对湿度(82.5%~86%)下,物种丰富度最高,表明这些环境变量对露尾甲种群具有重要影响。【结论】加尔各答主要水果和蔬菜在季风后季节种植,在季风后季节取食这些作物的露尾甲发生量(物种丰富度和多度)最高。这一研究结果可能有助于制定针对这些甲虫的有效田间治理策略。     

Influence of Abiotic Factors and Floral Resource Availability on Daily Foraging Activity of Bees

In this study, the daily and seasonal influences of abiotic factors and the amount of floral resources on the foraging frequency of bees were determined. The experiments were performed, during 12 consecutive months, in the main floral sources used by bees in a secondary forest fragment. The foraging frequency of each bee species on flowers of each plant was recorded for 20-min periods, every hour. To verify whether the foraging activity is influenced by abiotic factors, Pearson’s correlation analysis and linear regression tests were performed for the dominant bee species. Temperature and luminosity were the two main abiotic factors regulating foraging activities of bees. A positive correlation was found between the foraging frequency of most bees and these two variables. Conversely, the foraging activity was influenced neither by the relative humidity nor by the wind speed. The activity of each species depends on a combination of factors that include not only abiotic variables, but also the amount of floral resources available during the day, body size, and behavior of each visitor. After a certain period of the day, the scarcity of floral resources produced by most plants can stimulate the bees to forage in the flowers early in subsequent days, which may occur before the period in which the abiotic conditions are really favorable.     

Day length and evening temperature predict circannual variation in activity duration of the colony of the Indian cliff swallow,Hirundo fluvicola

In avian species, circannual rhythms, in a number of biological variables, including locomotor activity, have been studied under both laboratory and natural environmental conditions. However, information on circannual rhythm in daily activity duration of Indian cliff swallow (Hirundo fluvicola) is not available. It is a communal mud nesting, non-migratory species and inhabits low under arch bridges. Although it figures in the IUCN Red List under the least concerned category, it is important to study its behavioral ecology that may be of utmost importance from conservation stand point. In the present investigation, we examined the circannual rhythm in daily activity duration in this species at a communal roosting site under Kharoon river bridge on the Raipur–Bhilai highway (21°15′07.54′′N; 81°32′30.65′′E), Raipur, India, for eight consecutive days, every month from August 2009 to October 2011. On each study day, observations were made in two sessions, morning and evening. We monitored and recorded emergence time of the first bird from the nest in the morning and entry time of the last bird to the nest in the evening. We also recorded the ambient temperature and humidity of the study site simultaneously. Average daily activity duration (the time difference between the first bird’s emergence time and the last bird’s entry time from/to the nest, respectively) was computed for each month. A significant circannual rhythm in activity duration was validated. The peak of activity rhythm occurred on 22nd June with a spread between 19th June and 25th June. The activity duration was the shortest in winter and the longest in summer. The daily activity duration was positively correlated to the day length, sunset time, and morning and evening temperatures; whereas negatively correlated with the sunrise time, and morning and evening humidity. The multiple linear regression models suggest that day length alone explains 96% of the total variance in activity duration, whereas only 0.5% variance was attributable to evening temperature. We conclude that the day length is the strongest predictor of circannual variation in daily activity duration of the colony of Indian cliff swallow; whereas the evening temperature has very little effect. Further, we recommend that comparable studies under natural conditions might be very helpful to explore the effect of environmental cues on other intriguing behavioral decisions made by this and other avian species.     

东北鼢鼠活动强度及其与土壤温度和湿度的关系

动物的活动节律是对环境条件的综合适应,营地下生活的啮齿动物常年栖息于相对低氧和黑暗的土壤环境,其活动节律及强度如何受栖息地土壤温度和湿度影响,是否具有性别差异特征,一直受到广泛关注.这种影响的结果能够较为客观地反映出地下生活啮齿动物对其栖息地长期适应的生活史策略.东北鼢鼠(Myospalax psilurus)是我国北...     

Using Covariance to Unravel the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Daily and Seasonal Rhythms

Many factors contribute to the activity of animals in the wild. Whilst daily and seasonal rhythms are likely to be present, and to represent underlying biological functions, these will normally be modified by several factors in the environment. Important amongst these are light, temperature, humidity and whether or not it is raining. There is also the problem that the factors might interact, the effect of, say, time of day, being modified by the concomitant temperature. Separating out the effects of these different factors experimentally can be extremely arduous, if not impossible. An alternative approach is to treat the environmental factors as covariants, and then to separate out their effects from the biological ones by statistical means, using Analysis of Covariance, ANCOVA. The potential of this method is illustrated in the current report by a consideration of exits and entries of a colony of bees from their hive. Hourly measurements of this behaviour were taken during the daylight hours for three consecutive days in 11 consecutive months of the year. At the same time, ambient temperature, light intensity, humidity and whether or not it was raining were recorded. ANCOVA enabled the effects of temperature, humidity, light and rainfall upon the exits from the hive and entries back into it to be separated from the effects of time of day and time of the year. The analyses allowed those climatic variables, in addition to time-of-day and time-of-year effects, that influenced behaviour to be identified. Such climatic variables have not been previously isolated, and this might have lead to a misinterpretation of similar results in the past. Having separated out any effects of climatic variables (the covariates), the interaction between time of day and time of the year could then be investigated. Furthermore it has been possible to quantify the effects upon behaviour of each covariate. Rainfall was shown to decrease activity by more than 80%. For the other variables (temperature, humidity and light intensity), the statistical model allowed for the possibility that an increase in the variable initially produced a rise in activity but that this was followed, if the variable continued to rise, by a fall in activity. For light intensity, only a very modest increase in activity was found, and this continued throughout the range of intensities measured. However, for both temperature and humidity, the effects were more marked and showed 'turning points'. That is, activity increased as the ambient temperature rose until activity peaked at about 33-35°C; after which activity began to fall. Similarly, entries into the hive rose with increasing humidity up to a value of 48%, but fell thereafter. By contrast, exits from the hive increased with increasing humidity throughout the range measured. In the biological system tested, this form of analysis has produced valuable information about the way different factors influence activity in a field study. The results strongly suggest that the proposed methodology has a much wider and more general application. The way in which this type of analysis might be elaborated is discussed.     

Nest Maintenance Activity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Dinoponera quadriceps</Emphasis> in a Natural Environment

In social insects, task allocation can be more complex than workers merely falling into discrete task groups. Any activity performed by the colony cannot be fully understood in isolation from other activities because they may be interrelated. Investigating activities other than foraging is crucial to understanding the global functioning and organization of ant colonies. This study attempts to characterize the nest maintenance activity of the ponerine queenless ant, Dinoponera quadriceps, in its natural environment to determine the effects of environmental variables on the variations in both seasonal and daily rhythms and to discuss its differences and possible relationships to foraging. Four colonies of D. quadriceps were observed in an area of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. Data collection was performed over a period of 72 h every three months during an entire annual cycle. Nest maintenance activity in D. quadriceps colonies was observed during both the light and dark phases of the day. There was no significant difference between the day phases in the number of workers involved in this task. On the other hand, D. quadriceps colonies exhibited seasonal variation in nest maintenance activity, peaking in the early rainy season. The seasonal rhythm of nest maintenance was positively correlated with relative humidity and negatively correlated with prey availability and rainfall. Our results indicate the existence of an annual variation in the nest maintenance activity of D. quadriceps associated with environmental variables. However, it occurs equally both at night and day, countering the hypothesis that there is a daily rhythm.     

Circadian and weekly variation and the influence of environmental variables in acute myocardial infarction

Objectives

The aim of our study was to investigate the circadian and weekly variation and assess the influence of environmental variables on the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Methods

Our study population consisted of 2983 consecutive patients admitted with AMI between January 2006 and May 2008. Data were abstracted from hospital records and partially from an electronic database. In patients with a known time of onset of AMI, circadian variation was analysed. In all patients, weekly variation of onset of AMI was analysed. Information on daily mean temperature, sunny hours, rainy hours, maximal humidity and mean atmospheric pressure was obtained from the KNMI database and the influence of these environmental variables on the incidence of AMI was analysed.

Results and conclusion

Incidence of AMI shows a circadian pattern with an increase in occurrence during daylight. AMI occurs equally on each day of the week and no relation was found between environmental variables and the occurrence of AMI.     

The taxocene of lichen-feeding darkling beetles (Coleoptera,Tenebrionidae: Helopini) in a forest-steppe ecotone

The taxocene of lichen-feeding darkling beetles from the tribe Helopini is studied in the steppes of the south of Rostov Province. The species of lichens grazed on by the representatives of this tribe are identified for the first time and dependence of circadian activity and spatial distribution of adults on temperature and air humidity is shown. Global warming and human activities may have caused degradation of steppe lichen communities that formed the dietary base for the lichen-feeding darkling beetles in natural ecosystems. As a result, 3 out of 4 beetle species completely left steppe biotopes for tree shelterbelts. This caused a change in the trophic relationships (transition from epigeic to epiphytic lichens) and in the spatial distribution of darkling beetles, promoted the establishment of competitive interactions, and increased the duration of circadian and seasonal activity due to the lengthening of the periods with optimum temperature and air humidity for each species.     

Effect of thermal environment on life histories of free living Drosophila melanogaster and D. subobscura

The variability of morphological and lifehistory traits in Drosophila melanogaster and D. subobscura, two sympatric Drosophila species of different climatic origin, were investigated with regard to seasonal and daily temperature and humidity fluctuations to assess thermal sensitivity and the responses of freeliving organisms to oscillating temperatures. Temperature and humidity were measured continuously at the site where Drosophila were observed throughout the day, and thus represent a realistic picture of the temperature environment of these animals. A phenotypic model (gaussian curve) of temperature performance was fitted to daily fecundities and provided estimates of the position of temperature optimum and of the maximum and the breadth of performance for both species. D. melanogaster had a higher optimum temperature than D. subobscura. A trade-off between the maximum and the breadth of performance was detected both within and between the species.     

Effects of cooling water discharge on the structure and dynamics of epilithic algal communities in the northern Baltic

The Forsmark Biotest Basin is a shallow coastal ecosystem that receives brackish cooling-water discharge from a nuclear power plant. The effects of the discharge on epilithic algal communities were investigated by analysing samples taken every third week throughout one year at 11 sites differentially affected by temperature and/or flow rate enhancement. Community variation was summarized in a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) of species abundances as a function of site and date. The temperature increase favoured blue-green algae at the expense of red and brown algae. Blue-green algae were however abundant in summer in stagnant water, whether heated or not, and some red and brown algae became abundant in winter in heated sites with flowing water. Green algae and diatoms increased in biomass in the heated sites, but not in relative cover-abundance. The absence of ice and snow cover at sites with heated and/or flowing water caused autumn species to persist into winter, because of the higher light intensity (compared with natural conditions) and the absence of the mechanical abrasion by ice. The thermal discharge lowered species diversity (Shannon-Weaver index) both in summer and winter at sites with flowing water, but not at sites with quiescent or stagnant water. CCA showed alternate periods of stability and rapid change within the seasonal cycle. Individual species were placed according to their optimum; red and brown algae in winter/spring, green algae in spring/summer, blue-green algae in summer, and diatoms at various times. Exceptions to this pattern were species endo- or epiphytic on species of a different group. Analysis of the effects of temperature, flow rate and ice cover on the seasonal pattern of particular species showed that different species respond in individualistic ways to different combinations of these environmental variables.     

Seasonal Variation of δ^13C of Four Tree Species： A Biological Integrator of Environmental Variables

Foliar δ^13C values, an indicator of long-term intercellular carbon dioxide concentration and, thus, of long-term water use efficiency （WUE） in plants, were measured for Pinus massoniana Lamb., P. elliottii Engelm., Cunninghamia laceolata （Lamb.） Hook., and Schima superba Gardn. et Champ. in a restored forest ecosystem in the Jiazhu River Basin. Seasonal variation and the relationship between the foliar δ^13C values of the four species and environmental factors （monthly total precipitation, monthly average air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and monthly total solar radiation and evaporation） were investigated. The monthly δ^13C values and WUE of the four species increased with increasing precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, and evaporation, whereas δ^13C values of the four species decreased with increasing relative humidity and atmospheric pressure. Despite significant differences in δ^13C seasonal means for the four species, our results demonstrate a significant convergence in the responses of δ^13C values and WUE to seasonal variations in environmental factors among the species investigated and that the δ^13C signature for each species gives a strong indication of environmental variables.     

An analysis of seasonal dynamics of a mixed population of Daphnia, and the associated cladoceran community

SUMMARY. The dynamics of a mixed population of Daphnia (D. ambigua and D. parvula) are analysed over 9 months in a small eutrophic lake. A spring peak of D. ambigua occurred shortly after ice break-up. Decline of D. ambigua coincided with a high occurrence of sexual reproduction, the appearance of D. parvula which did not become abundant, and a substantial increase in Ceriodaphnia quadrangula . A third cladoceran, Bosmina longirostris , was abundant before and after the period of numerical dominance by D. ambigua , but declined to very low numbers coincident with the increase in D. ambigua.
Estimates of egg hatching rate at various temperatures demonstrate that these three cladocerans have different rate responses to temperature, and that seasonal succession of species is predictable from temperature alone. The importance of temperature versus species interactions in controlling species succession is discussed.     

Leaffall Phenology in a Subtropical Wet Forest in Puerto Rico: From Species to Community Patterns

Leaffall phenology is an important periodical event in forests, contributing to mobilization of organic matter from primary producers to soil. For seasonal forests, leaffall periodicity has been related to rainfall regime and dry season length. In weakly seasonal forests, where there is no marked dry season, other climatic factors could trigger leaf shed. In this study, we aimed to determine if other climatic variables (wind speed, solar radiation, photosynthetic photon flux density [PPFD], day length, temperature, and relative humidity) could be better correlated with patterns of litter and leaffall in a weakly seasonal subtropical wet forest in Puerto Rico. Leaffall patterns were correlated mainly with solar radiation, PPFD, day length, and temperature; and secondarily with rainfall. Two main peaks of leaffall were observed: April–June and August–September, coinciding with the periods of major solar radiation at this latitude. Community leaffall patterns were the result of overlapping peaks of individual species. Of the 32 species analyzed, 21 showed phenological patterns, either unimodal (16 species), bimodal (three species), or multimodal (two species). Lianas also presented leaffall seasonality, suggesting that they are subject to the same constraints and triggering factors affecting trees. In addition to solar radiation as a main determinant of leaffall timing in tropical forests, our findings highlight the importance of interannual variation and asynchrony, suggesting that leaffall is the result of a complex interaction between environmental and physiological factors.     

Harvestman (Arachnida: Opiliones) species distribution along three Neotropical elevational gradients: an alternative rescue effect to explain Rapoport's rule?

Aim Relationships between elevation and litter‐dweller harvestman (Arachnida: Opiliones) species richness along three elevational gradients in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest were evaluated. Specifically, three candidate explanatory factors for the observed patterns were tested: (1) the mid‐domain effect, (2) the Rapoport effect, and (3) the influence of environmental variables on species density and specimen abundance. Location Cuscuzeiro, Corcovado and Capricórnio mountains, in Ubatuba (23°26′ S, 45°04′ W), a coastal municipality in São Paulo state, south‐eastern Brazil. Methods We recorded harvestman species and abundance through active sampling using 8 × 8‐m plots in both summer and winter. At each plot we measured the temperature, humidity and mean litter depth. Harvestman species richness per elevational band was the sum of all species recorded in each band, plus the species supposed to occur due to the interpolation of the upper and lower elevational records. Differences between observed and expected species richness per elevational band, based on the mid‐domain effect, were examined through a Monte Carlo simulation. The Rapoport effect was evaluated using both the midpoint method and a new procedure proposed here, the ‘specimen method’. We applied multiple regression analysis to evaluate the contribution of each environmental variable (elevation, temperature, humidity and litter depth) on species density and specimen abundance per plot. Results Harvestman abundance and species richness decreased at higher elevations in the three mountains. The decrease in species richness was not monotonic and showed a plateau of high species richness at lower elevations. The number of harvestman species per elevational band does not fit that predicted by the mid‐domain effect based solely on geometric constraints assuming hard boundaries. Species with their midpoints at higher elevations tended to cover broader elevational range sizes. Both the midpoint method and the specimen method detected evidence of the Rapoport effect in the data. At fine spatial scales, temperature and humidity had positive effects on species density and specimen abundance, while mean litter depth had no clear effect. These relationships, however, were not constant between seasons. Main conclusions Our results suggest that harvestman species density declines at higher elevations due to restrictions imposed by temperature and humidity. We found a pattern in species range distribution as predicted by the elevational Rapoport effect. However, the usual rescue effect proposed to explain the Rapoport effect does not apply in our study. Since the majority of harvestman species covering broader elevational ranges do not exhibit reduced abundance at low elevations, an alternative rescue effect is proposed here. According to this alternative rescue effect, the decrease in species richness at higher elevations occurs due to differential upper limits of species with source populations below mid‐elevations. The seasonal differences in the relationships between environmental variables and species richness/specimen abundance per plot is an indication that species occurrence on elevational gradients is seasonally dependent. Thus relationships and hypotheses based on data recorded over short time periods, or in a single season, should be viewed cautiously.     

Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza

Seasonal variation in serum concentration of the vitamin D metabolite 25(OH) vitamin D [25(OH)D], which contributes to host immune function, has been hypothesized to be the underlying source of observed influenza seasonality in temperate regions. The objective of this study was to determine whether observed 25(OH)D levels could be used to simulate observed influenza infection rates. Data of mean and variance in 25(OH)D serum levels by month were obtained from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and used to parameterize an individual-based model of influenza transmission dynamics in two regions of the United States. Simulations were compared with observed daily influenza excess mortality data. Best-fitting simulations could reproduce the observed seasonal cycle of influenza; however, these best-fit simulations were shown to be highly sensitive to stochastic processes within the model and were unable consistently to reproduce observed seasonal patterns. In this respect the simulations with the vitamin D forced model were inferior to similar modeling efforts using absolute humidity and the school calendar as seasonal forcing variables. These model results indicate it is unlikely that seasonal variations in vitamin D levels principally determine the seasonality of influenza in temperate regions.