Environmental Risk Assessment of Dams by Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods: A Case Study of the Polrood Dam,Guilan Province,Iran

A dam's construction always imposes some risks to the environment. In this article, the environmental risks of the Polrood dam, located in a northern province of Iran, during its construction phase, were identified, ranked, and evaluated. The risk factors were initially identified by Delphi questionnaire and then rated using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Subsequently, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to classify the risk factors into four major categories, and Expert Choice software was used to weight them. Based on the obtained results, Physicochemical; Biological; Economic, Social, and Cultural; and Health and Safety risks were rated by the weights of 0.124, 0.080, 0.048, and 0.021, respectively. Among the physicochemical risks, Erosion and Sedimentation weighted 0.061 and 0.047, respectively, were identified as the most serious risks. Among the biological risks, the highest negative impact was assigned to Land Cover with the weight of 0.189. In the third category, the most important risk was Population Displacement, weighted 0.114. Workers’ Falls with the weight of 0.109 was also determined as the highest risk in the last category. A comprehensive risk response plan will be required for dealing with the identified risks and their mitigation.     

Human Health Risks of Selenium-Contaminated Fish: A Case Study for Risk Assessment of Essential Elements

A screening level human health risk assessment (HHRA) was applied to evaluate the human health implications of consuming selenium found in fish tissues collected downstream of coal mines in southeastern British Columbia, Canada. The study evaluated the potential for adverse human health effects associated with selenium, and considered known and potential benefits of selenium and fish ingestion. The results indicated that risks of selenosis due to consumption of selenium-contaminated fish in the region are negligible. Conclusions were strengthened by consideration of the potential benefits of selenium to human health, including: selenium essentiality for maintenance of good health; potential cancer prevention properties due to its role as an antioxidant; potential benefits for cardiovascular health; and other positive health benefits. The findings indicated that some aspects of the traditional framework for HHRA (e.g., application of safety factors to “err on the side of safety”) are inappropriate for the assessment of selenium-contaminated fish. Due to both deficiency and toxicity in the selenium dose-response relationship, application of compounding conservatism in risk assessment may lead to recommended intakes of fish that are contrary to the public health interest. The need for balancing risk types, for incorporating positive responses in risk assessments, and the linkage to the precautionary principle, are discussed.     

The Health Risk Assessment Approach,a Tool for Managing Risks on the Scale of a Territory: A French Experience

In France, regulatory analysis of the environment and human health potential consequences is implemented for an isolated industrial activity that requests an authorization to operate using the health risk assessment method. To date, the question is enlarged to the impact of the combination of multiple sources of pollution on the same territory. The main conclusions of the work launched by the French High Council of Public Health focus on four key points: (i) the utility of conducting such an analysis at a territory scale, (ii) the delimitation of the area, (iii) the conditions for the different stakeholders’ involvement, and (iv) the methodological specificities of the “zone health risk assessment.” The work encompassed literature reviews, seminars, and interviews of stakeholders. The utility of a Z-HRA is the central objective for the management of risk. It can no longer be conducted only for itself. The delimitation of the zone entails economic, political, environmental, and population aspects. Stakeholders become key actors in a steering and monitoring committee. Among methodological specificities, cumulative exposure comes first. Interpretation of the results should focus on risk management objectives. Finally, inclusion of Z-HRAs in flexible regulations that can be adapted to the local context is recommended.     

Developing A Regional Ecological Risk Assessment: A Case Study of a Tasmanian Agricultural Catchment

A regional ecological risk assessment was conducted for the Mountain River catchment in Tasmania, Australia. The Relative Risk Model was used in conjunction with geographic information systems interpretations. Stakeholder values were used to develop assessment endpoints, and regional stressors and habitats were identified. The risk hypotheses expressed in the conceptual model were that agriculture and land clearing for rural residential are producing multiple stressors that have potential for contamination of local waterbodies, eutrophication, changes in hydrology, reduction in the habitat of native flora and fauna, reductions in populations of beneficial insects in agricultural production systems, increased weed competition in pastures, and loss of aesthetic value in residential areas. In the risk analysis the catchment was divided into risk regions based on topography and land use. Stressors were ranked on likelihood of occurrence, while habitats were ranked on percentage land area. Risk characterization showed risks to the maintenance of productive primary industries were highest across all risk regions, followed by maintenance of a good residential environment and maintenance of fish populations. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to show the variability in risk outcomes stemming from uncertainty about stressors and habitats. Outcomes from this assessment provide a basis for planning regional environmental monitoring programs.     

Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Process Modeling in a Life Cycle Context: A Case Study of Hemp Crop Production

The aim of this article is to develop a methodological approach allowing to assess the influence of parameters of one or more elementary processes in the foreground system, on the outcomes of a life cycle assessment (LCA) study. From this perspective, the method must be able to: (1) include foreground process modeling in order to avoid the assumption of proportionality between inventory data and reference flows; (2) quantify influences of foreground processes’ parameters (and, possibly, interactions between parameters); and (3) identify trends (either increasing or decreasing) for each parameter on each indicator in order to determine the most favorable direction for parametric variation. These objectives can be reached by combining foreground system modeling, a set of two different sensitivity analysis methods (each one providing different and complementary information), and LCA. The proposed method is applied to a case study of hemp‐based insulation materials for buildings. The present study will focus on the agricultural stage as a foreground system and as a first step encompassing the entire life cycle. A set of technological recommendations were identified for hemp farmers in order to reduce the crop's environmental impacts (from –11% to –89% according to the considered impact category). One of the main limitations of the approach is the need for a detailed model of the foreground process. Further, the method is, at present, rather time‐consuming. However, it offers long‐term advantages given that the higher level of model detail adds robustness to the LCA results.     

Safety,Health, and Environmental Risk Assessment of a Gas Power Plant: A Case Study from Southern Iran

This research was conducted to assess health, safety, and environmental risks of a gas power plant in southern Iran. In order to identify the subject risks of the power plant at operational phase a questionnaire was designed using the Delphi method. The questionnaires were put at the disposal of 99 electricity industry experts. Risk assessment was done using multicriteria decision-making methods such as technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), entropy, and Eigenvector technique. Following prioritization of risks at each power plant unit, top-priority risks were determined by one-way ANOVA. The obtained results indicated that the risk of working with medium voltage boards with a weight of 0.879 at the power plant's Electricity Unit is the most important safety and health risk in the studied power plant while risk of servicing the unit with fuel of gas weighting 0.807 and delivery of gas fuel with weight of 0.630 in the Exploiting Unit and work on liquid fuel clutch with weight of 0.603 in the Mechanical Unit are the most important environmental risks in the gas power plant. In conclusion, this study concludes that health, safety, and environmental risk assessment can be a structured and used as a systematic approach to plan for environmental protection and personnel health.     

A Novel Approach to Determining a Population-Level Threshold in Ecological Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Zinc

A novel approach to population-level assessment was applied in order to demonstrate its utility in estimating and managing the risk of zinc in a water environment. Much attention has been paid to population-level risk assessment, but there have been no attempts to determine a “safe” population-level concentration as an environmental criterion. Based on the published results of toxicity tests for various species, we first theoretically derived a threshold concentration at which a population size is unchanged due to the adverse effects of zinc exposure. To derive a zinc concentration that will protect populations in natural environments, we adopted the concept of species sensitivity distribution. Assuming the threshold concentrations of a set of species are log-normally distributed, we calculated the 95% protection level of zinc (PHC₅ :population-level hazardous concentration of 5% of species), which is 107 μg/L. Meanwhile, the 95% protection criterion (HC₅) based on conventional individual-level chronic toxicity, was calculated to be 14.6 μg/L. The environmentally “safe” concentration for a population-level endpoint is about 7 times greater than that for an individual-level endpoint. The proposed method provides guidance for a pragmatic approach to population-level ecological risk assessment and the management of chemicals.     

Unit Operation Optimization for the Manufacturing of Botanical Injections Using a Design Space Approach: A Case Study of Water Precipitation

Quality by design (QbD) concept is a paradigm for the improvement of botanical injection quality control. In this work, water precipitation process for the manufacturing of Xueshuantong injection, a botanical injection made from Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma, was optimized using a design space approach as a sample. Saponin recovery and total saponin purity (TSP) in supernatant were identified as the critical quality attributes (CQAs) of water precipitation using a risk assessment for all the processes of Xueshuantong injection. An Ishikawa diagram and experiments of fractional factorial design were applied to determine critical process parameters (CPPs). Dry matter content of concentrated extract (DMCC), amount of water added (AWA), and stirring speed (SS) were identified as CPPs. Box-Behnken designed experiments were carried out to develop models between CPPs and process CQAs. Determination coefficients were higher than 0.86 for all the models. High TSP in supernatant can be obtained when DMCC is low and SS is high. Saponin recoveries decreased as DMCC increased. Incomplete collection of supernatant was the main reason for the loss of saponins. Design space was calculated using a Monte-Carlo simulation method with acceptable probability of 0.90. Recommended normal operation region are located in DMCC of 0.38–0.41 g/g, AWA of 3.7–4.9 g/g, and SS of 280–350 rpm, with a probability more than 0.919 to attain CQA criteria. Verification experiment results showed that operating DMCC, SS, and AWA within design space can attain CQA criteria with high probability.     

A Human Health Risk Assessment Software for Facilitating Management of Urban Contaminated Sites: A Case Study: The Massa Site,Tuscany, Italy

The goal of this article is to present the Human Health Risk Assessment (HRA) software developed as one of the NORISC ^{1 1}NORISC is the acronym of the project “Network Oriented Risk assessment by In-situ Screening of Contaminated sites” realized under under the 5th European Union Community Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration Activities. View all notes decision support software system components that could be used as a tool for facilitating management of urban contaminated sites. The NORISC-HRA software provides sufficient technical and procedural support to conduct a simple site-specific risk assessment. The employed HRA methodology is generally based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) procedures. The software determines the level and spatial distribution of human health risks at a given site and sets up site-specific preliminary Health-Based Remedial Goals (HBRGs)/Risk-Based Concentrations (RBCs) for soil and groundwater. The NORISC-HRA software is recommended for use when national soil and groundwater limit values are exceeded. Exposure pathways considered in this software are associated with three land use patterns—residential, industrial/commercial, and recreational. The aricle also presents the software testing results obtained at one of the NORISC test sites—the Massa site (Avenza-Carrara, Tuscany, Italy). Findings of the HRA indicated that the contaminated soil at the Massa test site might pose potential cancer and non-cancer risks to industrial workers in its present condition. Arsenic was the dominant substance responsible for most of the baseline risk and at the RBC of 1.77 mg/kg it was the primary driver of remedial decisions at the Massa site.     

Shortcomings in USEPA's Approach for Predicting Risk Due to Consumption of Animal Food Products Impacted by Air Emissions from Hazardous Waste Combustion Facilities: A Case Study Involving Phthalates

As a part of the permitting process for hazardous waste combustion facilities, regulatory agencies are now conducting site-specific, multipathway risk assessments. In accordance with the approach established by the USEPA, the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission uses a prospective risk assessment paradigm whereby site-specific activity pattern and land use information is used to determine plausible exposure scenarios and pathways. A set of exposure scenarios defined as receptors (i.e., resident adult, resident child, farmer adult, farmer child, fisher adult and fisher child) is then assumed to be exposed via multiple applicable exposure pathways. In conducting such risk assessments, modeled air emissions of di-n-octyl phthalate (DNOP), at concentrations near or below detectable levels, have been observed to produce an unacceptable hazard in the farmer exposure scenario. Sensitivity analyses indicated that two key parameters affected hazard estimates for DNOP in the farmer scenario: the octanol-water partition coefficient (K_ow), which is used to predict bioaccumulation in animal tissue, and the metabolism factor, which is used to account for metabolism and elimination. Evidence indicates that K_ow values for highly lipophillie compounds are accurately determined using a slow-stir method. In addition, evidence indicates that the phthalates of interest are extensively metabolized and eliminated. However, current USEPA guidance includes geometric mean K_ow values for highly lipophillie compounds derived in part on methods that are outdated and no longer considered accurate. In addition, USEPA guidance only considers metabolism for bis-% ethylhexyl phthalate (BEHP). Collectively, these two shortcomings in the USEPA approach result in a 38-fold underestimation of hazard for BEHP and a 172,000-fold overestimation of hazard for DNOP.     

A Risk-Based Approach to Health Impact Assessment for Input-Output Analysis, Part 2: Case Study of Insulation (8 pp)

Goal, Scope and Background In the first part of this paper, we developed a methodology to incorporate exposure and risk concepts into life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). We argued that both risk assessment and LCIA are needed to consider the impacts of increasing insulation for single-family homes in the US from current practice to the levels recommended by the 2000 International Energy Conservation Codes. In this analysis, we apply our model to the insulation case study and evaluate the benefits and costs of increased insulation for new housing. Results and Discussion The central estimate of impacts from the complete insulation manufacturing supply chain is approximately 14 premature deaths, 400 asthma attacks, and 7000 restricted activity days nationwide for one year of increased fiberglass output. Of the health impacts associated with increased insulation manufacturing, 83% is attributable to the supply chain emissions from the mineral wool industry, which is mostly associated with the direct primary PM2.5 emissions from the industry (98%). Reduced energy consumption leads to 1.2 premature deaths, 33 asthma attacks, and 600 restricted activity days avoided per year, indicating a public health “payback period” on the order of 11 years. Over 90% of these benefits were associated with direct emissions from power plants and residential combustion sources. In total, the net present value of economic benefits over a 50-year period for a single-year cohort of new homes is $190 million with a 5% discount rate, with 49 fewer premature deaths in this period. Conclusion Recommendation and Outlook. We have developed and applied a risk-based model to quantify the public health costs and benefits of increased insulation in new single-family homes in the US, demonstrating positive net economic and public health benefits within the lifetimes of the homes. More broadly, we demonstrated that it is feasible to incorporate exposure and risk concepts into I-O LCA, relying on regression-based intake fractions followed by more refined dispersion modeling. The refinement step is recommended especially if primary PM2.5 is an important source of exposure and if stack heights are relatively low. Where secondary PM2.5 is more important, use of regression-based intake fractions would be sufficient for a reasonable risk approximation. Uncertainties in our risk-based model should be carefully considered; nevertheless, our study can help decision-makers evaluate the costs and benefits of demand-side management policy options from a combined public health and life cycle perspective.     

A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Interaction of a Chemical and Nonchemical Stressor in Human Health Risk Assessments: A Case Study for Lead and Psychosocial Stress

Recent research has demonstrated that nonchemical stressors may alter the toxicity from chemical exposures. This may have public health implications for low socioeconomic status (SES) communities that may be disproportionately exposed to toxic chemicals and various types of community and personal stressors. Nonchemical stressors may introduce an important source of variability that needs to be considered by risk assessors. Herein, we propose a framework for determining if a chemical–nonchemical interaction exists and, if so, options for incorporating interaction information into risk assessments. We use the increasingly recognized interaction between lead and psychosocial stress to illustrate the framework. We found that lead exposure occurs disproportionately in low SES groups that also tend to face high levels of psychosocial stress; that stress and lead both affect neurodevelopment and that this occurs via similar pathways involving the hypothalamic-pituitary axis. Further, several epidemiological and experimental studies have provided evidence for an interaction between lead and psychosocial stress. The implications of this interaction for risk assessment are also discussed.     

Integrating Air Pollution,Climate Change,and Economics in a Risk-Based Life-Cycle Analysis: A Case Study of Residential Insulation

One of the ways in which risk assessment can inform life-cycle analysis (LCA) is by providing a mechanism to translate midpoint categories into common endpoints. Although this analytical step is complex and often highly uncertain, it can allow for prioritization among disparate midpoints and subsequent analytical refinements focused on the endpoints that dominate policy decisions. In this article, we present an approach to address three widely differing impact categories—particulate matter air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and personal income. We use the case of increased residential insulation as a measure to reduce energy consumption, which implies economic and public health tradeoffs across all three categories. We apply previously developed models that combined input-output LCA and risk assessment to address public health impacts from particulate matter, and extend the framework to address greenhouse gases and the public health consequences of changes in income. For a hypothetical loan program applied to both new and existing single-family homes, we find a payback period of approximately one year for the particulate matter and greenhouse gas–related midpoints and endpoints, with the structure of the loan implying that no economic payback is required. Our central estimates for avoided disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for a 50-year period are approximately 200,000 for particulate matter, 900,000 for greenhouse gases, and 300,000 for income changes, although values are highly dependent on discount rates and other model assumptions. We conclude that all three impact categories are potentially significant in this case, indicating that analytical refinements should be considered for all three impact categories to reduce model uncertainties. Our study demonstrates how LCA and risk assessment can work together in a framework that includes multiple impact categories, aiding in the evaluation of the net impacts of an energy policy change on society.     

Integration of Ecosystem Services into Ecological Risk Assessment for Implementation in Ecosystem-Based River Management: A Case Study of the Yellow River,China

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a scientific tool used to support ecosystem-based management (EBM), but most current ERA methods consider only a few indices of particular species or components. Such limitations restrict the scope of results so that they are insufficient to reflect the integrated risk characterization of an ecosystem, thereby inhibiting the application of ERA in EBM. We incorporate the concept of ecosystem services into ERA and develop an improved ERA framework to create a comprehensive risk map of an ecosystem, accounting for multiple human activities and ecosystem services. Using the Yellow River as a case study, we show how this framework enables the implementation of integrated risk characterization and prioritization of the most important ecological risk issues in the ecosystem-based river management of the Yellow River. This framework can help practitioners facilitate better implementation of ERA within EBM in rivers or any target ecosystem.     

Environmental Footprints and Scenario Analysis for Assessing the Impacts of the Agri‐Food Industry on a Regional Economy: A Case Study in Spain

The study of the environmental footprints of various sectors and industries is increasingly demanded by institutions and by society. In this context, the regional perspective is becoming particularly important, and even more so in countries such as Spain, where the autonomous communities have the primary responsibility for implementing measures to combat environmental degradation and promote sustainable development, in coordination with national strategies. Taking as a case study a Spanish region, Aragon, and significant economic sectors, including agriculture and the food industry, the aim of this work is twofold. First, we calculate the associated environmental footprints (of emissions and water) from the dual perspectives of production (local impacts) and consumption (final destination of the goods produced by the agri‐food industry). Second, through a scenarios analysis, based on a general equilibrium model designed and calibrated specifically for the region, we evaluate the environmental implications of changes in the agri‐food industry (changes in the export and import pattern, as well as in consumer behavior). This model provides a flexible approximation to the environmental impacts, controlling for a wider range of behavioral and economic interactions. Our results indicate that the agri‐food industry has a significant impact on the environment, especially on water resources, which must be responsibly managed in order to maintain the differential advantage that a regional economy can have, compared to other territories.     

Human Health Risk Assessment of Soils Contaminated with Metal(loid)s by Using DGT Uptake: A Case Study of a Former Korean Metal Refinery Site

The human health risk of soils contaminated with As, Pb, Cu, and Zn was evaluated based on pseudo-total concentrations of metal(loid)s, the physiologically based extraction test (PBET), and diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT). Non-carcinogenic (NCR) and carcinogenic (CR) risks exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency criteria under both the residential and non-residential scenarios. Human bioavailable concentrations (PBET) were much lower than pseudo-total concentrations. The Hazardous Index of NCR (HI (NCR)) for the PBET in the studied soils was 67% and 94% less than that for pseudo-total concentration, respectively, under the non-residential and residential scenarios. Similarly, CR for the PBET was also 65% and 93% less for the two soils. The concentration of metal(loid)s accumulated in the DGT resin was highly correlated with the PBET-extractable concentration (R² > 0.649). Therefore, for both the CR and HI (NCR), the DGT-calculated risk was linearly related to the PBET-calculated risk for the studied soils under both scenarios. The results suggest that DGT uptake and PBET-extracted concentrations are good surrogates for risk estimation and that both J1 and J2 soils require remediation before their use for residential or non-residential purposes.     

Transforming the Cement Industry into a Key Environmental Infrastructure for Urban Ecosystem: A Case Study of an Industrial City in China

Under the dual pressure of environmental constraints and increasingly thin profit margins, the cement industry in China is in a predicament. To alleviate the environmental and the economic pressure of the cement industry and to tackle the problem of delayed environmental infrastructure construction, this article introduced an urban ecosystem in which the cement industry was transformed into an effective complement to environmental infrastructure. The Xinfeng Cement Industrial Park in China, which has a production capacity of 5 million tonnes per annum (Mt/a) of clinker, was chosen as a case study. Our methodology involved proposing technologies to develop an efficient cement plant‐centered urban ecosystem; evaluating its environmental and economic performance; identifying barriers in its promotion; and proposing supportive policies. Results showed that the city's waste recycling ratio rose from about 50% to 70%, saving 0.6 Mt/a of coal equivalent and reducing about 3.0 Mt/a of resulting carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The life span of the city's landfill site was extended by about 30 years. The total investment was 3.2 billion yuan (about US$480 million), 1 with an average payback period of 3 years. The Xinfeng Cement Industrial Park was transformed from an energy‐intensive consumer and a significant CO₂ emitter to a key industrial waste recycler, a crucial municipal waste co‐processor, an important new building material supplier, and a potential energy producer. Last, the “not‐in‐my‐back‐yard” (NIMBY) effect from constructing new environmental infrastructure was also avoided.     

A Bootstrap-Based Covariate Selection Method for Modeling the Risk of Lightning-Induced Fires at a Local Scale: A Case Study in Northwest Spain

In lightning-induced fire risk prediction models, the number of potential predictors is usually high, with some redundancy among them. It is therefore important to select the best subset of predictors that obtain models with the greatest discrimination capacity. With this aim in mind, the logistic generalized linear model was used to estimate lightning-induced fire occurrence using a case study of the province of León (northwest Spain). A bootstrap-based test was used to obtain the optimal number of predictors and to model this optimal number of predictors displaying the largest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. The results show that of the 16 variables initially considered, only three were necessary to obtain the model with the best discriminatory capacity for estimating lightning-induced fire occurrence. Moreover, this model can be considered equivalent to another nine alternative models with three covariates. Both the optimal and the equivalent models are useful in the spatially explicit assessment of fire risk, the planning and coordination of regional efforts to identify areas at greatest risk, and the design of long-term wildfire management strategies. The methodology used for this case study can be applied to other wildfire risk assessment situations where multiple and interconnected covariates are available.