宁夏资源环境绩效及其变动态势

提高资源环境绩效是我国生态脆弱敏感区进行生物修复的核心和关键.利用生态环境状况评价技术规范和资源环境绩效指数(REPI)对我国西部生态环境脆弱区的宁夏回族自治区资源环境绩效进行了系统分析.结果表明:尽管宁夏的资源环境绩效指数水平从2000年的38.7上升为2007年的66.9,年递增8.13%,但远低于全国平均水平和(西藏除外)3个少数民族自治区水平.资源环境综合绩效水平在全国的第30位徘徊.其中建设用地绩效指数和固定资产绩效指数提升明显,COD排放绩效指数呈现"N"型剧烈变动态势;SO_2排放绩效指数、能源绩效指数、工业固体废弃物排放绩效指数、用水绩效指数变动不明显.宁夏面临生态环境的整体不稳定性和对外力干预敏感性的双重压力,资源消耗和污染物排放的下降态势并不稳定.同时,根据近8a变动态势推断,未来15～20a宁夏资源环境综合绩效的提升空间巨大.实施"CIRCLE"(即压缩城市发展(C)、个人行动(I)、减少潜在废弃物量(R)、碳减排战略(C)、土地管理(L)和提高能效(E))等综合发展策略,通过轻量化、绿色化、生态化的互利耦合提升综合竞争力,宁夏完全有能力到2015年步入我国西部资源环境绩效中等水平地区行列.     

Can Industrial Restructuring Lead to a Sustainable Future? A Critical Environmental Risk Assessment of Industrial Policy in Shandong Province,China

Shandong Province is attempting to realize a sustainable development path by industrial restructuring. This article attempts to forecast the outcomes of this policy, looking ahead to 2010 and 2020 by quantifying its resource demand and environmental effects. Prediction and analysis indicate that the industrial restructuring policy of Shandong Province is likely to prove beneficial to the environment, reducing energy and water consumption from the 2004 baseline. However, the analysis also indicates that the high anticipated economic growth rates will override any resource saving and pollutants reduction achieved. Natural resource supplies are insufficient to meet demand, and environmental quality is likely to deteriorate, rendering economic growth targets unachievable. However, if Shandong puts in place policies designed to achieve average energy and water consumption efficiency, SO₂ emission efficiency and wastewater treatment efficiency of OECD countries in 2004, then energy consumption, SO₂ emissions, wastewater, and Chemical Oxygen Demand discharges in 2020 will reduce in real terms with only water demand showing a slight increase over the 2004 baseline. The assessment suggests that further measures such as developing new and alternative energy sources, raising the utilization efficiency of energy and water resources, and improving pollution treatment are required if Shandong Province is to realize a balanced and sustainable development for its society, economy, and environment.     

Urgency,development stage and coordination degree analysis to support differentiation management of water pollution emission control and economic development in the eastern coastal area of China

The eastern coastal areas of China have high-density population, developed society and economy, and large water pollution emissions. How to reduce water pollution and realize the coordinated development of the economy and environment has become the national focus. Effective environmental policies should consider regional differences in development stage and sustainability performance. Here, we first analyzed the water pollution emissions intensity of the eastern coastal areas of China and the urgency of emissions reduction using 8-year environmental statistics from 2003 to 2010. We characterized development stages of the eastern coastal areas based on the relationships between water pollution emissions intensity and economic development. Further, we built a coordination degree index of economic development and water environment protection as a measure of sustainability. Results show that water pollution emissions intensity decreases as the economy grows from 2003 to 2010. The less-developed regions have a better coordination degree than some more-developed regions, especially those most-developed ones (e.g., Shanghai show more pressures on long-term sustainability than Hebei). The less-developed regions should take advantage of economic growth to invest more advanced environment protection technologies. The more-developed regions need to upgrade its economic structures and municipal infrastructures. Overall, the study provided a comprehensive approach to understand regional difference in development stage and sustainability performance in the eastern coastal region of China as well as the need of different environmental policies to reduce water pollution emissions.     

Analysis of relationship between Beijing's environment and development based on Environmental Kuznets Curve

Urbanization nowadays is a very important driving force for China's social and economic development, but the resource shortage and pollution accompanied have troubled China especially in the urban areas. As the capital of China, Beijing is a mega-city and densely populated. Its development and prosperity is supported by a large amount of material consumption, rendering a severe shortage of natural resources and serious pollution. Underlying the premise of maintaining its development and prosperity, Beijing is facing an enormous challenge in dealing with heavy pollution load. Therefore, it is a very important step to decouple the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution. This paper makes a study on the relationship between the economic growth and pollution load for Beijing based on the analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) which builds an econometric model using data over the period 1990–2014. We found the intensity of most pollutants have arrived at the turning point around 2006 while the total amount of most emissions remain at a high level, this is a favorable initiation for the transforming the development patterns as it has begun to decouple the pollution intensity and economy. Based on the statistics, this paper further analyzes the driving factors behind the active change. We found that the adjustment of industrial structure, a reasonable city planning, powerful measures in pollutants control and technology advance, contribute a lot to the transformation. Especially in the recent years, Beijing and correlative regions took joint measures to prevent and reduce air pollution, which have an apparent functions. Finally, this paper proposes several suggestions for Beijing to decouple the economic growth and environmental pollution load, based on these important conclusions.     

Driving reactive nitrogen emissions in China: Competition between scale and efficiency

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions aggravate air and water pollution across the world. The factors influencing Nr emissions have not been clearly uncovered, especially for regions under rapid economic growth. Here we modeled total Nr emissions in mainland China and analyzed factors driving their growth during the decade (2000–2010) of fastest socioeconomic development. Results show that total Nr emissions increased from 24.9 terrogram (Tg) to 35.2 Tg, a 41.7% increase with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. Agricultural activities, including crop planting and livestock and poultry breeding, together took a substantial but decreasing share, from 75.2% in 2000 to 61.4% in 2010. Industrial wastewater discharge, energy use, and crop production are the three largest sources contributing to the Nr emissions growth. Factors related to scale (e.g., the amount of industrial energy use) led to a growth in Nr emissions, and factors related to efficiency (e.g., industrial energy use per unit of economic output) contributed to reduction. The decreasing effect of efficiency gains, however, was still unable to overcome the increasing effect of the activity scale. More in-depth research studies on mitigation strategies are required, to inform the decoupling between socioeconomic development and Nr emissions.     

基于生态效率的江西省循环经济发展模式

循环经济发展模式的研究是当今可持续发展研究及政府相关决策的核心内容,生态效率则是循环经济的合适测度,它是资源能源效率和环境效率的综合表征指标。基于生态效率度量模型和循环经济发展模式的判别模型,以江西省为例,分析其在2000-2010年间循环经济发展模式的变化轨迹。结果表明:(1) 能源消耗与经济发展表现出同步增长的趋势;(2) 各种资源和环境效率均有所上升,其环境效率总体上大于资源效率,按效率增加快慢的排序为:固体废弃物排放效率 > 建设用地效率 > COD排放效率 > 水资源效率 > SO₂排放效率 > 能源效率;(3) 江西省循环经济发展走的是一条由传统线性经济模式到末端治理模式再到循环经济模式的发展道路,符合环境库兹尼茨曲线发展规律,即无害化→减量化→资源化。对研究方法的创新性进行了谨慎的探讨,对区域循环经济发展所应注意的问题提出的建议。     

主体功能区视角下的碳排放核算——以广东省为例

区域碳排放核算是当前全球气候变化与碳排放研究的核心内容之一。中国于2010年出台《全国主体功能区规划》,主体功能区是以区域开发程度、资源环境基础和未来开发潜力为依据,县域为基本单位的区域规划方案,这为区域碳排放核算和配额分配提供了全新的视角。鉴于县域的能源数据不够完善,基于经济、人口、省级能耗量等数据构建了适用于主体功能区划分的碳排放核算方法,并确保各主体功能区的碳排放总量和分部门碳排放量都与该省的总碳排放量和分部门的一一对应相等。以中国广东省为案例,对其四类主体功能区在2005—2015年间的碳排放情况进行核算分析。研究发现:四类主体功能区的碳排放总量与经济总量呈现高度正相关性;四类地区中碳排放量从大到小依次为优化、重点、农产品、生态开发区。碳排放强度最大的为生态开发区,其次是重点开发区,农产品开发区和优化开发区。重点开发区和优化开发区的碳排放占全省比值达86%,都应作为未来节能减排措施的最主要的作用对象,需加快产业结构升级,扩大新能源技术的应用。农产品开发区和生态开发区应加快发展循环农业,有机低碳农业生态环境友好型产业。     

供给侧改革视角下中国省域生态产品有效供给及影响因素

生态产品是事关人类生命健康、经济社会建设的世界性稀缺产品.为了更好地分析生态产品有效供给问题,找出生态产品有效供给的规模效率的变化规律,本研究利用2004—2015年的面板数据,以劳动力、资本、能源和技术为投入变量,以GDP、生态产品和非期望产出为产出变量,运用SBM-Undesirable模型和泰尔指数对我国生态产品有效供给的规模效率及其差异性进行测算,并运用Tobit模型进一步对其影响因素进行实证分析.结果表明: 我国生态产品供给规模效率在2011年以前呈下降趋势,以2012年为转折点呈现上升态势,但地区间仍有较大差距.全国及各地区生态产品有效供给效率的影响因素不尽相同,从全国总体情况看,经济发展水平、产业结构(第二产业增加值占GDP比重)、科技投入、金融资本投入(环境污染治理占GDP比重)、能源消费结构(煤炭消费量占能源消费总量比重)和农业面源污染的影响为负,而生态空间及外贸结构的影响为正;在东部地区,产业结构、科技投入、金融资本、能源消费结构和农业面源污染的影响为负,经济发展水平、生态空间及外贸结构的影响为正;在东北地区,经济发展水平、农业面源污染和外贸结构的影响为负,产业结构、科技投入、能源消费结构和生态空间的影响为正;在中部地区,经济发展水平、科技投入、金融资本、能源消费结构、农业面源污染和生态空间的影响为负,产业结构和外贸结构的影响为正;在西部地区,产业结构、能源消费结构和农业面源污染的影响为负,经济发展水平、科技投入、金融资本、生态空间及外贸结构的影响为正.在进一步对以上实证测算进行理论分析的基础上,从供给侧改革的角度提出有效提高生态产品供给规模效率的政策启示,包括注重转变经济发展方式、优化生态系统结构和遵循生态法则进行整体治理等.     

The interactions among China's economic growth and its energy consumption and emissions during 1978–2007

This paper analyzes the interactions among China's economic growth and energy consumption and emissions during 1978–2007. Conventional energy and emergy are applied to quantify energy consumption and emissions’ impact respectively. Several indicators, based on emergy, energy and monetary units, are applied to depict the relationships among economic growth and energy consumption and emissions’ impact. The results show that energy consumption and emissions’ impact rise simultaneously. Therein, nonrenewable energy resources possess absolute share in total energy consumption and undertake primary responsibility for increasing emissions’ impact, and NH₃–N in wastewater leads to the most emissions’ impact on environment. Energy mix and energy efficiency and pollution control make some achievements, but their improvements fall far behind economic growth rate. As a result, the structure of China's economy has been obviously optimized; however, the improvement of the relationship between China's economy, energy and environment is far behind that of its economic structure in this period. Therefore, China will continue to face huge pressure on resources and environment its rapid economic growth brings about in future. Those study results imply that enhancing energy efficiency, optimizing economic structure and strengthening pollution control will still be the main tasks for China's governments in future.     

Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO₂ emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China''s development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.     

中国旅游业碳排放效率的空间格局及其影响因素

旅游业碳排放效率作为旅游业绿色全要素生产率指标,是衡量旅游业碳排放与旅游经济增长之间关系的重要工具。借助SBM模型测算了中国省际旅游业碳排放效率,并利用ESDA和GWR方法分析了旅游业碳排放效率的空间格局及其影响因素的时空异质性。结果表明:中国旅游业碳排放效率呈现缓慢提升态势,但总体水平仍较低。旅游业碳排放效率的空间集聚特征明显,形成了以上海为中心的高值集聚区和以西北省份为中心的低值集聚区。旅游业碳排放效率及其空间格局演化是多因素共同作用的结果,旅游经济规模对中西部地区旅游业碳排放效率的提升作用较强;城镇化的促进作用逐步减弱,且在多数省份开始产生抑制作用;技术效应的提升作用高值区从中东部转移至华北和东北地区;旅游业产权结构对南部地区的推动作用也逐步凸显;结构效应主要对西南地区起促进作用。这为优化和提升旅游业碳排放效率提供了理论依据。     

煤电一体化开发对锡林郭勒盟环境经济的影响

国家“十二五”规划确定将在内蒙古锡林郭勒盟建设国家重点大型煤电基地.煤电一体化开发将大大地推动锡盟的区域经济发展,但也可能会对这一典型草原地区和重要生态屏障地区的生态环境造成不利影响.采用物料平衡法和指数增长模型对2001-2009年锡林郭勒盟SO2排放量与人均GDP做了相关性分析,发现二者关系基本符合环境库兹涅茨曲线,呈较缓和倒U型曲线,拐点在人均GDP35000-40000元,目前已过曲线拐点,SO2排放量缓步下降.对锡盟煤电一体化开发情景下(2012-2020)的SO2排放及人均GDP进行预测,结果显示SO2排放量将随经济发展呈上升趋势,表明煤电一体化开发会使环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点后延,虽然到2020年SO2排放量仍然没有超出区域大气环境容量,但将接近环境容量极限,会给当地环境带来明显压力;基于以上判断,进而从制度、技术、市场三方面出发,探讨了促进锡盟煤电一体化产业建设与环境保护协调发展的对策.     

A regional version of a US economic input-output life-cycle assessment model

Background, Aims and Scope Life cycle assessment models typically use product-specific, plant-level or national aggregate data. However, many decisions by regional policy makers would be better informed by local or regional aggregate data. This research is intended to construct and apply a regional US economic input-output analysis-based life cycle assessment (REIO-LCA) model based upon publicly available datasets. The model uses Gross State Product (GSP) estimates to calculate regional economic multipliers and then link them to regional electricity and fuel use, and air emission factors. Target audiences are governmental decision makers, industry experts and researchers concerned with the regional economic and environmental effects of public and private decisions. Methods A regional version of the existing US EIO-LCA model was developed using regional economic multipliers and state environmental data. The national model is based on the US 491 by 491 economic input-output model, and uses sectoral energy consumption and emission factors to approximate the environmental effects of production and services. The proportion of the regional value added (Gross State Product) to the national value added for each sector was used to develop economic multipliers to allocate the output of industries to individual states and multi-state regions. Inter-sectoral transaction matrices were constructed for eight regions. Regional environmental emission and resource use factors were formed based upon publicly available data of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of Energy. The Toxics Release Inventory include facility location parameters, enabling the estimation of sectoral toxic emissions for the regions. The national electricity and fuel use, air pollutants (CO, NO_x, PM₁₀, SO₂ and VOC) and greenhouse gas emissions used by the EIO-LCA model were proportioned based upon state totals for each sector. Results A regional economic input-output model was created for US regions, and sectoral energy use and environmental emission factors were estimated for Pennsylvania, the Far West (Alaska, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon and Washington) and the Mideast (Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania) economic areas. The use of the framework for regional IO-LCA model is demonstrated through two case studies. Discussion As a validation exercise, the regional outputs of petroleum refineries were calculated using the regional input-output matrices and the outcomes were compared to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Petroleum State Profile data. The model results show that approximately 70% of the total national sectoral production takes place in three regions, i.e., South West, South East and Far West, which corresponds with the EIA statistics. The REIO-LCA model constructed for the Far West is used to conduct a second case study estimating the annual toxic air emissions of power plants in the region in 2003. The results are evaluated by comparison to data provided by the US EPA. The estimated pollutions do not differ significantly from those presented in the Toxics Release Inventory reports. Conclusions The usefulness of IO LCA models can be improved through the incorporation of local economic and environmental characteristics. Wiht the lack of US regional sectoral data, the allocation of national industrial production to regions can provide a framework to create smaller scale IO models. The results of case studies support the assumption that the GSP multipliers may be used to allocate the sectoral production to the regions, and show that the framework IO LCA model provides a reasonable approximation of supply chain economic activities and environmental effects caused by production and services. Recommendations and Perspectives The quality of data, e.g., age and level of aggregation, and the assumed linearity between sectoral outputs and environmental emissions represent the main sources of uncertainty in the model. The results show that the GSP estimates are appropriate to construct a framework for a regional economic input-output and environmental assessment model. However, further research is recommended to construct more specific state-level input-output matrices incorporating interstate commodity flows, and state environmental factors in order to mitigate the parameter uncertainties. Further, the model might be improved by updating it regularly, as more recent data become available.     

辽宁省能源消费与经济增长的灰色关联

我国能源消费与经济增长的矛盾日益突出.辽宁省是我国重工业基地和能源消耗大省,经济发展对能源依赖性强,能源供不应求的状态日益显著.为了深入了解辽宁省能源消费与经济增长的关系,提出科学的低碳发展建议,本文基于2000—2012年辽宁省能源消费与经济增长相关数据,应用灰色关联分析,分别对辽宁省能源消费产业和能源消费品种与经济增长的相关性进行实证分析.结果表明: 在各产业能源消费中,批发零售业和住宿餐饮业能源消费量很少,但与经济增长的关联程度最大,工业消费量最大,却与经济增长的关联度较弱;在能源消费品种中,石油和水电能源消费量与经济增长的灰色关联度显著,但煤炭能源消费量与经济增长的关联度不显著,表明煤炭的利用效率低.为实现低碳可持续发展,辽宁省应转变经济增长方式、调整产业结构、优化能源结构、提高能源利用效率,特别是应大力发展生产性服务业,推进清洁能源和可再生能源的开发.     

Urban atmospheric environmental capacity and atmospheric environmental carrying capacity constrained by GDP–PM2.5

China faces a contradictory period of economic development and environmental protection, with it being essential to control total emissions within the limit of atmospheric environmental capacity (AEC) by promoting atmospheric environmental carrying capacity (AECC). This implies that well-calculated AEC and AECC values are the key macro-criteria for improving environmental quality and supporting the challenging coordinated development of economy and environment. When considering compound air pollution characterised as fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), conventional methods are not capable of calculating AEC and AECC, but the system dynamics (SD) method retains the advantage of simplicity in resolving complex problems. In the present study, we first describe the background and definitions of AEC and AECC, which are different from Western concepts, and their dialectical relationships. Then, with the statistical data from Wuhan city in 2014, we establish an ‘economy–energy–atmospheric environment’ dynamic model using the SD method, which does not need to simulate the complicated physicochemical processes of atmospheric transmission and diffusion. Instead, it uses the pollutants’ proportionality factors and conversion rates to establish quantitative connections among different types of variables. Finally, we simulate the dynamic trends of gross domestic production (GDP), PM_2.5, and six air pollutant emissions between 2015 and 2030 in four different scenarios and calculate the results of AEC and AECC constrained by GDP and PM_2.5.     

辽宁省能源消费和碳排放与经济增长的关系

在广泛收集资料的基础上,对辽宁省的能源利用效率、能源消费强度与经济增长的关系进行探索,其目的为辽宁省的节能与CO2减排及经济的快速发展提供科学依据。结果表明:辽宁整体单位GDP能耗高出全国水平52%—70%,第二产业单位GDP能耗是第三产业的5.67—8.41倍,第一产业的7.2—9.0倍;辽宁能源利用率只有全国平均水平的60%左右,第二产业能源利用效率只有第一产业的11.89%,第三产业的12.60%;GDP年增长速率大于能源消费量年增长速率,能源投入增加促进了国民生产总值的提高,但是经济增长并不是完全依赖能源消费的增长;能源消费量与经济增长的关系,呈现出"N型"曲线特征,随着GDP的增加,能源消费量出现反复上升和下降过程,辽宁省能源消费和经济增长关系没有达到长期的均衡性,尚处于非平衡的发展阶段。     

国家级经济技术开发区绿色发展指数研究

国家级经济技术开发区是改革开放以来中国经济发展的缩影,已成为中国推动开放型经济发展,促进工业化、城镇化进程,实现区域发展战略的重要支撑。处理好经济发展与节约资源、保护环境的关系,实现绿色、低碳、循环发展,提高发展的质量和效益,是国家级经开区在新形势下面临的新挑战。为推进国家级经开区的创新驱动和绿色发展,加强对国家级经开区绿色低碳循环发展的引导,通过建立绿色发展指数方法,对国家级经开区的绿色发展水平进行评价,以期为管理决策提供参考。绿色发展水平定量评价研究运用多准则排序方法构建了绿色发展指数。首先从经济发展、资源能源消耗、生态环境和基础设施4个方面构建了国家级经开区绿色发展评价指标体系,其次对各项指标进行归一化处理,加权后得到绿色发展指数。以2007年52家国家级经开区各项指标(基于不变价格的平均值)为参照,分析了2007—2012年52家国家级经开区绿色发展指数的动态变化,采用动态气泡图直观地表征年际间经开区绩效的横向和纵向变化。比较了东中西部国家级经开区绿色发展水平的差异,及建设国家生态工业示范园区对其绿色发展指数的影响,进而对国家级经开区的绿色发展进行了展望。     

Empirical investigation of environmental Kuznets curve for carbon emission in Morocco

This study explored the relationship among income, carbon emissions, energy consumption, and trade openness for Morocco from 1971 to 2011. The Johansen cointegration technique confirmed the long run relationship among the variables. The energy consumption deteriorated the environment quality and found to be true for both short run and long run. Foreign trade is beneficial for environment quality as foreign trade openness has negative impact on carbon emissions. This study did not confirm the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in long run. Furthermore, there is a strong one way causation from income to carbon emissions. Thus, Morocco can improve environment quality by reducing the carbon emissions and it will not disturb economic pace of the economy. Therefore, energy and trade policies should be made growth oriented. In the same way energy production and consumption has to be made environmental friendly.     

贵州省碳吸收/碳排放时空变化特征及其与经济的脱钩效应

贵州省是我国喀斯特生态系统的典型分布区,生态敏感且脆弱,同时其也曾是我国的连片特困区,经济发展愿望迫切。对区域环境-经济发展状况及相互作用关系进行研究具有重要意义。研究从植被净生态系统生产力、土壤碳储量、岩溶碳通量三方面计算了贵州省陆地生态系统碳吸收,以能源燃烧排放的CO₂表征碳排放量,对区域碳吸收和碳排放的时空变化特征进行剖析,在此基础上构建环境碳负荷指数和脱钩弹性系数,用于解析贵州省碳收支状况及环境碳负荷与经济发展之间的脱钩关系。结果显示:(1)贵州省植被净生态系统生产力均值为257.72 g C/m²,呈逐步增强趋势,空间上呈现西高东低、南高北低的分布格局;岩溶碳通量的均值为6.71 t C/km²,年际波动较大,集中分布在研究区东北和西南部;土壤碳储量的均值为8.38 t/hm²,其高值区主要位于研究区南部和东部边缘;(2)区域碳排放呈现出了逐年增长的特征,表明了能源消耗的增强,形成了以城市高值区为中心向外辐射递减,各点之间以道路连通为特征的分布格局;(3)环境碳负荷指数呈逐年增长趋势,表征区域面临的环境压力越来越大,特别是在贵州省主城区出现了明显的收支不平衡,能源结构优化亟待加强;(4)综合脱钩状态整体以弱脱钩和扩张连接为主,且随时间推移脱钩状态由弱脱钩向扩张连接转变,说明环境保护滞后于经济发展,也就意味着贵州省经济的发展一定程度上牺牲了环境保护。未来应进一步强化生态修复工程的可持续性,同时发展绿色经济以促进区域生态-经济可持续发展。     

A Hybrid‐Unit Energy Input‐Output Model to Evaluate Embodied Energy and Life Cycle Emissions for China's Economy

We develop a hybrid‐unit energy input‐output (I/O) model with a disaggregated electricity sector for China. The model replaces primary energy rows in monetary value, namely, coal, gas, crude oil, and renewable energy, with physical flow units in order to overcome errors associated with the proportionality assumption in environmental I/O analysis models. Model development and data use are explained and compared with other approaches in the field of environmental life cycle assessment. The model is applied to evaluate the primary energy embodied in economic output to meet Chinese final consumption for the year 2007. Direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions intensities are determined. We find that different final demand categories pose distinctive requirements on the primary energy mix. Also, a considerable amount of energy is embodied in the supply chain of secondary industries. Embodied energy and emissions are crucial to consider for policy development in China based on consumption, rather than production. Consumption‐based policies will likely play a more important role in China when per capita income levels have reached those of western countries.