An assessment methodology for human holistic risk in whole cycle of shale gas fracturing

In the process of shale gas fracturing, long time, high strength, and boring task could trigger psychological or physical operation fatigues, and then lead to downtime, sand blocking, or other accidents, which are the main problems in safety management. However, conventional studies either separately analyze risks without considering the interaction and relationship between humans or teams, or only form a qualitative framework for team analysis. These methods cannot be directly applied for the fracturing operators due to complex operation procedures and diversified human errors. An improved methodology, therefore, is proposed to assess human holistic risk during the whole cycle of fracturing operation. First, D-S evidence theory is introduced to obtain the individual risk, and team performance shaping factor is also presented to establish risk assessment model for fracturing teams. Second, individual and team risks are integrated to calculate the quantitative value of human holistic risk. A scatter diagram of human risk is finally designed, where the high-risk fracturing stages and human types can be clearly revealed. Results from a study of one shale gas well indicate that human holistic risk is more objective and practical, and improves accuracy of human reliability analysis.     

A Critical Review of the Traditional Methodology of Cost-Benefit Analysis and a Proposed Alternative

“Risk management” is essential to the decision-making process that prescribes regulations for protecting human health. As a comprehensive decision-making approach, risk management encompasses risk assessment, risk perception, economic factors, and their respective uncertainties. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has long been the preferred methodology for evaluating the economic factors associated with such regulations. Within this context, CBA confirms whether or not the “benefit” of a given regulatory option is greater than its “cost.” This article proposes an alternative CBA methodology whose guiding concept is the “optimization” of outcomes for the stakeholders in regulations that aim to protect human health. This article further proposes evaluation criteria for CBA and critiques the traditional and alternative variants against this standard, ultimately to demonstrate the superiority of the latter.     

Extrapolation for Exposure Duration in Oral Toxicity: A Quantitative Analysis of Historical Toxicity Data

For human risk assessment, experimental data often have to be extrapolated for exposure duration, which is generally done by means of default values. The purpose of the present study was twofold. First, to derive a statistical distribution for differences in exposure duration that can be used in a probabilistic concept for combining assessment factors in risk characterization. Second, to obtain insight in the magnitude of the change in No-Observed-Adverse-Effect-Level (NOAEL) with exposure duration, which will lead to more science-based assessment factors for exposure duration. A large historical database, including 198 substances, was consulted. Ratios were calculated for pairs of NOAELs for systemic toxicity from oral toxicity studies with the same species (rats or mice, various strains) and different exposure duration categories. The Geometric Mean (GM), Geometric Standard Deviation (GSD), and the 90th and 95th percentile values were determined. The traditionally applied default factors for subacute to semichronic (10), for semichronic to chronic (10), and for subacute to chronic exposure (100) corresponded with the 93, 87, and 99-percentiles of the respective distributions. Options are presented for a set of default values and probabilistic distributions for assessment factors for exposure duration based on data from the consulted historical database.     

Concentration,Distribution, Source,and Risk Assessment of PAHs and Heavy Metals in Surface Water from the Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Fifteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals (Cr, Ni, As, Cd, Pb, and Hg) were quantified in 19 surface water sites of the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. The total concentrations of 15 PAHs and six heavy metals in the 19 sample sites ranged from 130.8 ng L^?1 to 227.5 ng L^?1 and 3.2 μg L^?1 to 6.0 μg L^?1, respectively. The mean concentration of As was the highest among the six heavy metals (2.1 ± 0.3 μg L^?1), followed by Cr (0.5 ± 0.3 μg L^?1), Ni (1.3 ± 0.1 μg L^?1), Cd (0.2 ± 0.01 μg L^?1), Pb (0.07 ± 0.08 μ g L^?1) and Hg (0.05 ± 0.08 μg L^?1). The isomer ratio results suggest that PAHs at most sites were mainly from petroleum combustion, while coal and biomass combustion was the main source at sites 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 14, and 17. Based on principal component analysis, the main source of heavy metals was anthropogenic activities and weathering of bedrocks. Depending on characteristic of RQ_(NCs) ≥ 1 and RQ_(MPCs) < 1, BaA showed higher potential ecological risk than other PAHs, therefore, all sampling site needed to be paid much more attention, included some remedial actions. Meanwhile, after assessing human health risk of heavy metal, it was unlikely to experience adverse health effects, even exposing through more pathways and six kinds of heavy metals simultaneously.     

新兴海岛型城市建设引发的生态变化的遥感分析——以福建平潭综合实验区为例

福建省平潭岛于2010年被正式确立为“福建省平潭综合实验区”,由此引发了新兴海岛型城市的建设高潮.本研究利用遥感生态指数(RSEI),基于2007年Landsat-5影像和2013年Landsat-8影像,分析了平潭综合实验区建设初期的生态状况及其时空变化趋势和变化原因.结果表明： 研究期间,作为生态脆弱的海岛,平潭岛的生态状况整体处于中等水平,在综合实验区建设初期(2007-2013年)有进一步下降的态势,RSEI值从2007年的0.511下降至2013年的0.450,降幅达14%;占全岛面积约36.5%区域的生态状况趋于退化,且主要发生在中部和西南部地区.究其原因主要是由于综合实验区建设带来的大面积成片开发,使得岛内原本不多的植被遭到进一步破坏.平潭岛在综合试验区建设中应及时制定并落实科学有效的生态保护措施,以遏制其生态质量下滑的趋势.     

Assessment of Human Health Risk for an Area Impacted by a Large-Scale Metallurgical Refinery Complex in Hunan,China

Due to accelerated urbanization and reform of industrial structure in China, polluting industries in major cities have been closed or relocated. Consequently, large numbers of industrial sites were generated and the contaminated soils on and around these sites may pose risks to humans. This case study presents an estimation of human health risks for an area that is mainly impacted through air dispersion and deposition from a large-scale metallurgical refinery complex in Zhuzhou city, Hunan Province, China. Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks posed by the contaminants were estimated under future industrial and residential land use scenarios. The result shows that adverse health effects may occur primarily through ingestion of soils contaminated with As, Cd, and Pb. The total carcinogenic risks of multiple contaminants for a large area exceed the acceptable risk level of 1 × 10^?5, and several localized hotspots, where the total hazard index exceeds 1 were identified. Soils in the Tongda site pose the highest carcinogenic risks and non-carcinogenic hazards. It is concluded that potential human health risks exist under the proposed redevelopment scenarios, and development of risk-based remediation strategies is recommended.     

基于综合评价指数的塔里木盆地荒漠化风险评估

荒漠化是当今人类所面临的区域性生态环境威胁之一,其发生常伴随林地生产力下降、土地资源丧失、生物多样性丧失、土壤固碳能力减弱等一系列生态环境退化问题,进而导致土地地力低下。环塔里木盆地作为荒漠化问题突出的生态脆弱区,易受到自然因素和人为因素的双重影响,及时准确地监测并评估荒漠化风险是防治荒漠化的基础和前提。单一的评估方法在荒漠化风险评估中均有一定的局限性,主客观结合法可以提升荒漠化风险评估精度。研究基于“三因子”理论,通过建立包括气候条件、人类活动、荒漠化监测现状等3类16个指标评价体系,利用主客观结合的熵组合权重法构建了荒漠化风险综合评价指数(Comprehensive Evaluation Index,CEI),并对环塔里木盆地的荒漠化风险进行评估。结果显示:(1)三因子权重分析显示:暴露性因子权重最高,脆弱性因子权重最低;(2)环塔里木盆地西部地区的荒漠化危险性小于东部地区,危险性、脆弱性和暴露性较高的区域集中在绿洲外围,原生荒漠区危险性较低,绿洲边缘地区较易发生荒漠化;(3)环塔里木盆地区域的荒漠化风险主要呈现为极低风险,高风险和极高风险区呈狭长、零稀分布,主要分布在绿洲边缘和居民点工矿用地区,原生荒漠区的荒漠化风险较低。高风险以及极高风险区仅占总体面积的3.0%;(4)基于地理探测器探究环塔里木盆地区域内人类活动和环境因素对荒漠化风险程度空间分异的影响结果显示:单因素分析方法显示土地利用类型(0.68)是主要的驱动因素;双因素交互分析方法显示各因素之间主要以非线性增强为主。影响最大的组合为:土地利用类型∩载畜量(0.78)和耕地面积∩载畜量(0.78),荒漠化风险程度主要受人为因素影响。合理的土地利用规划、禁止随意丢荒和耕地扩张以期实现耕地的集约高效经营,是荒漠化防治的有效策略之一。研究利于准确掌握区域荒漠化风险各程度的空间分布状况,分析其影响因素和机制,为区域开展有效的荒漠化防治措施提供科学依据。     

Uncertainty-based dynamic multimedia human health risk assessment for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a land oil exploitation area

With the increasing development of the petrochemical industry and the growing demand for oil, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) pollutions in the environment, especially in petroleum exploitation areas, are caused by the discharge of waste from the petroleum extraction process into an environmental system. This study aims to develop a new health risk assessment approach based on interval dynamic multimedia fugacity (IDMF) model and uncertainty analysis that could analyze the human exposure risk level for PAH contamination. The developed IDM health risk assessment (IDMHRA) approach is applied to assess previous, current, and future risks at a case study site in Daqing, Heilongjiang, China, from 1985 to 2020 for model validation. The human health risk assessment results show that 11 PAHs (NAP, ANT, FLA, PYR, BaA, CHR, BbF, BkF, BaP, IPY, and DBA) in the study site require further remediation efforts in terms of their unacceptable non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk. The results of risk source analysis reveal that soil media is the main risk pathway as compared with other exposure pathways. It can be seen that remediation process for soil contamination in the study site is urgently demanded. The assessment results demonstrate that the developed IDMHRA approach provides an effective tool for decision-makers and environmental managers to make remediation decisions in contaminated sites.     

A Probabilistic Assessment of Household Exposures to MTBE from Drinking Water

The oxygenate methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) has been added to reformulated gasoline in the U.S. to meet national ambient air quality standards. Although MTBE has provided significant health benefits in terms of reduced criteria and toxic air pollutants, detections of MTBE in some groundwater and drinking water sources have raised concerns about potential environmental contamination and human exposures. In this paper, we examine the frequency and concentration of MTBE detections in drinking water sources in California from 1995 to 1999, and provide a preliminary analysis of the distribution of household exposures to MTBE from water-related activities. Using published data on the toxicity and possible cancer hazard posed by MTBE, we estimate the likely cancer and non-cancer risks for the general population in California from past and potential future MTBE exposures. More highly exposed subgroups were also addressed. Our findings indicate that less than 2% of all sampled drinking water sources in California had detectable levels of MTBE in 1999, with average MTBE drinking water concentrations ranging from 0.09 to 4.9?ppb for this year. Both the detection rate for MTBE and average MTBE concentrations have remained relatively stable since 1995, despite increased sampling of drinking water sources in California. The probabilistic exposure analysis suggests that drinking water exposures to MTBE are unlikely to pose a significant health risk for the general population or more highly exposed individuals in California.     

基于PSR模型的国家公园综合灾害风险评估指标体系构建

灾害会对社会-生态系统产生严重影响,造成重大的社会、经济、环境等方面的损失,科学地对灾害风险进行评估是进行防灾减灾的基础工作。自然保护地是区域灾害风险管理热点地区,在国家公园体制试点建设与自然保护地体系改革中,国家公园作为保护重要生态系统并保障全民公益性的重要的自然保护地类型之一,管理目标的多样性,决定了其具有多风险源-多受体的灾害风险特征,因此,进行全面有效的灾害风险评估是支持国家公园生态系统管理、游客管理、社区管理等具体管理目标的必要环节。在明确国家公园灾害风险的特征与内涵的基础上,以国际减灾署灾害风险定量评估框架为依据,细分灾害风险源和风险受体,然后针对国家公园不同类型的灾害风险受体,以灾害风险源的危险性与灾害风险受体的脆弱性(包含敏感性、暴露性和适应性)衡量灾害风险度,结合压力-状态-响应(Pressure-State-Response, PSR)模型,构建了适用于国家公园综合灾害风险管理的评估指标体系,旨在为国家公园的灾害风险管理提供理论基础和科学依据,服务于国家公园多元化管理目标。     

基于GIS技术的吉林省生态灾害风险评价

基于自然灾害风险形成原理,综合考虑吉林省自然和社会经济现状,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性及防灾减灾能力4个方面选取指标,利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法及层次分析法构建生态灾害风险评价模型,评价了各风险因子的贡献率,并运用GIS技术生成吉林省生态灾害风险区划图.评价结果对于正确认识吉林省的生态环境风险水平,有针对性地确定生态恢复与管理决策都有重要意义.     

Human Exposure to Malathion during a Possible Vector-Control Intervention against West Nile Virus. II: Evaluation of the Toxicological Risks Using a Probabilistic Approach

In order to prevent the propagation of West Nile Virus (WNV), insecticide sprayings have been carried out in several locations in North America since 1999 with the objective of controlling the mosquito populations that transmit this pathogen. An attempt to quantitatively compare the risk of developing a health response to WNV infection with the toxicological risk of insecticides is presented here. First, the acute and subchronic environmental concentrations resulting from repeated spraying events were modeled according to a reasonable worst-case spraying sequence established in an intervention program proposed by the Government of Quebec (Canada). Second, probability density functions (PDF) were established for some exposure parameters according to the data for the concerned population, when feasible. Monte Carlo analyses were performed by incorporating these PDF into the equations used to calculate the daily absorbed doses resulting from the exposure scenarios presented in the companion article (this issue). The results showed that for a significant proportion of the population, aerial and, to a lesser extent, ground sprayings of malathion can generate acute and subchronic exposure that may exceed some levels of toxicological concern based on the USEPA's reference values. Indeed, in the case of acute exposure following aerial spraying for infants, toddlers, and children, these proportions were respectively 37.1%, 59.5%, and 32.8% of the individuals, and 27.3%, 41.3%, and 24.9% following subchronic exposure. For ground spraying, these values were 12.5%, 24.2%, 8.8%; and 9.8%, 16.5%, and 7.4%. These results allowed the comparison of the probability of exceeding a level of toxicological concern for malathion exposure with the probability of developing WNV symptoms. This comparison shows that in some circumstances, the toxicological risk of malathion may exceed the infectious risk of WNV.     

贵州兴仁煤矿区农田土壤重金属化学形态及风险评估

为了解煤矿区周边农田土壤重金属污染状况,采集了贵州省兴仁县某典型煤矿区农田土壤样品64份,测定了土样中重金属(As、Cr、Pb、Zn、Cd、Hg、Cu、Ni)总量及各形态含量,采用单因子指数法、潜在生态风险指数法(Hkanson法)和风险评估编码法(RAC)对研究区主要土壤利用类型(水稻土、薏米地、植烟土和菜园土)中重金属进行潜在生态风险评估和环境风险评价.结果表明： 不同利用类型土壤中重金属含量除Zn外,其他元素均明显超过贵州省背景值.单因子指数法评价结果表明,As、Pb、Hg和Cu污染较为严重,均属重度污染.形态分析表明,土壤中重金属形态构成差异明显,酸可提取态As、酸可提取态Cd所占比例较高;Cr、Zn、Cu、Ni主要以残渣态为主;Pb主要以可还原态和残渣态为主;而Hg的酸可提取态、可还原态、可氧化态均占有相当比例,三者之和大于55%.重金属可利用度大小顺序为:As(63.6%)>Hg(57.3%)>Cd(56.4%)>Pb(52.5%)>Cu(45.7%)>Zn(32.8%)>Ni(26.2%)>Cr(13.2%).潜在生态风险指数表明,各类型土壤潜在生态风险(RI)〖JP2〗为:菜园土(505.19)>薏米地(486.06)>植烟土(475.33)>水稻土(446.86),均处于较高风险.风险评估编码法结果显示,As在水稻土、薏米地及植烟土中均处于高风险,在菜园土中处于中等风险;Cd、Hg均处于中等风险,Cr、Pb、Zn、Cu和Ni均处于低风险.因此,对该区域农田土壤进行管控时应重点考虑As、Cd和Hg污染.     

Bioaccessibility-Based Risk Assessment of PAHs in Soils from Sites of Different Anthropogenic Activities in Lagos,Nigeria Using the Fed Organic Estimation Human Simulation Test Method

The aim of this study was to carry out a bioaccessibility-based risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils from sites of different anthropogenic activities in Lagos, Nigeria. Using an in vitro gastrointestinal model—Fed Organic Estimation Human Simulation Test method (FOREShT), the concentration of bioaccessible 16 priority US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) PAHs in soils were determined. Total concentration of 16 priority USEPA PAHs was also determined. The concentration range was 702–253,922 ng g^?1 and 92–760 ng g^?1 for total and bioaccessible PAHs, respectively. For persons involved with activities at these sites no health risks were observed, based on bioaccessibility values of PAHs. Mean daily intake of PAHs from these soils were below the oral mean daily intake threshold for PAHs in food. Also, overall estimated theoretical cancer risk (2.5 × 10^?09, 6.5 × 10^?07, 5.5 × 10^?10, 2.7 × 10^?09, 6.5 × 10^?10, 9.5 × 10^?10, 2.0 × 10^?09, and 4.1 × 10^?07 for the eight sites based on their bioaccessible concentration) for exposure to PAHs in surface soils were below the health guidelines for extreme (1 × 10^?04) and normal (1 × 10^?06) exposures.