Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials,risks and trade‐offs

Afforestation is considered a cost‐effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade‐offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO₂/year at 200 US$/tCO₂ in 2050 leading to large‐scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO₂ cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock‐in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade‐offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade‐offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.     

The biological threat to U.S. water supplies: Toward a national water security policy

In addition to providing potable drinking water, U.S. water systems are critical to the maintenance of many vital public services, such as fire suppression and power generation. Disruption of these systems would produce severe public health and safety risks, as well as considerable economic losses. Thus, water systems have been designated as critical to national security by the U.S. government. Previous outbreaks of waterborne disease have demonstrated the vulnerability of both the water supply and the public's health to biological contamination of drinking water. Such experiences suggest that a biological attack, or even a credible threat of an attack, on water infrastructure could seriously jeopardize the public's health, its confidence, and the economic vitality of a community. Despite these recognized vulnerabilities, protecting water supplies from a deliberate biological attack has not been sufficiently addressed. Action in this area has suffered from a lack of scientific understanding of the true vulnerability of water supplies to intentional contamination with bioweapons, insufficient tools for detecting biological agents, and a lack of funds to implement security improvements. Much of what is needed to address the vulnerability of the national water supply falls outside the influence of individual utilities. This includes developing a national research agenda to appropriately identify and characterize waterborne threats and making funds available to implement security improvements.     

川西低山区土壤侵蚀经济损失及其评估模式——以名山县蒙山为例

借助中国坡面土壤流失预报方程（CSLE）估算研究区的土壤侵蚀量,并重点对该区土壤侵蚀生态经济损失进行计算和分析,结果表明研究区土壤侵蚀的直接经济总损失为1776．387万元,占同期当地第一产业总产值的5．001％,其中经济损失最严重的是林地和坡耕地,其次探讨了水土流失生态．经济面积边际损失比的概念,通过分析得出侵蚀所造成的直接经济边际损失每增加1万元,在此基础上,其生态价值的边际损失将增加76—91元。     

Environmental Impacts of Conventional and Sustainable Investment Funds Compared Using Input-Output Life-Cycle Assessment

This study compares equity funds that are managed according to sustainability goals with conventionally managed funds with respect to their environmental impacts. Overlap in the portfolios of sustainable equity funds and conventional equity funds can be very large. Further, the sector allocation of both types of funds is generally very similar, because portfolio managers follow a chosen benchmark to minimize risk. These two effects may result in no difference existing between the two types of funds in terms of their environmental impact and damage (null hypothesis of this research). This study comparatively assesses the environmental impact of portfolios of 26 investment funds: 13 sustainable investment funds and 13 conventional funds, which are managed according to the benchmark MSCI World. The study applies input–output life-cycle assessment (IO-LCA) in combination with a simulation of company-specific environmental performance. The environmental impact is evaluated per functional unit for each fund, measured as the risk-adjusted financial performance. The statistical analysis showed that the analyzed sustainable investment funds performed better with respect to environmental impact assessment but worse in economic risk-adjusted performance (RAP) over the period 2000-2004. In 2004, however, the RAP of the selected sustainable investment funds showed better performance. Both samples considerably overlap for the environmental and economic parameters. The results suggest that the environmental impact of sustainable investment funds in the sample is slightly less than that of conventional funds.     

中国增汇型气候保护政策实施对经济的影响

系统地给出了中国实施增汇型CO2减排政策对宏观经济影响的模拟结果,所采用的模拟系统包括基于Pizer,Demeter,Zwaan工作发展的中国气候保护决策支持系统和中国经济可计算一般均衡(CGE)系统。研究结果表明,增汇型气候保护政策较其他单一的气候保护政策更有利于国家经济安全;虽然增汇型气候保护政策在短期内会对国家GDP产出造成影响,但从长远角度看,增汇型气候保护将带动经济的发展,是一项值得推广的减排政策。同时,发现中国实行每年增加4%的碳汇和实施4%能源替代以减少CO2排放控制率,辅助于0.2%的生产型CO2排放控制率,如果能够促进世界其它地区到2050年减排1990年的10%的CO,是一个合适的方案。     

Uncertainty in predictions of range dynamics: black grouse climbing the Swiss Alps

Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change effects on species’ vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate‐induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual‐based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantified uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by different SDM algorithms, by different climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefit of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species’ responses to climate change.     

Transforming the Norwegian Dwelling Stock to Reach the 2 Degrees Celsius Climate Target

Residential buildings account for about one‐third of the final energy demand in Norway. Many cost‐effective measures for reducing heat losses in buildings are known, and their implementation may make the building sector one of the largest contributors to climate change mitigation. To determine the sectoral emission reduction potential, we model a complete transformation of the dwelling stock by 2050 by applying both renovation and reconstruction with different energy standards. We propose a new dynamic stock model with an optimization routine to identify and prioritize buildings with the highest energy saving potential. We combine material flow analysis (MFA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) techniques to extend the sectoral boundary beyond direct household emissions. Despite an expected population growth of almost 50% between 2000 and 2050, sectoral carbon emissions in that period may drop between 30% and 40% for scenarios where the stock is completely transformed by either reconstruction or renovation to the passive house standard. Due to its lower upstream impact, renovation leads to a lower sectoral carbon footprint than reconstruction. Full transformation, however, is not sufficient to achieve an emissions reduction of 50% or more, as required on average to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, because hot water generation, appliances, and lighting will dominate the sectoral footprint once the stock has been transformed. A first estimate of the additional impact of realistic energy efficiency and lifestyle changes in the nonheating part of the sector reveals a maximal total reduction potential of about 75%.     

基于PSR模型的国家公园综合灾害风险评估指标体系构建

灾害会对社会-生态系统产生严重影响,造成重大的社会、经济、环境等方面的损失,科学地对灾害风险进行评估是进行防灾减灾的基础工作。自然保护地是区域灾害风险管理热点地区,在国家公园体制试点建设与自然保护地体系改革中,国家公园作为保护重要生态系统并保障全民公益性的重要的自然保护地类型之一,管理目标的多样性,决定了其具有多风险源-多受体的灾害风险特征,因此,进行全面有效的灾害风险评估是支持国家公园生态系统管理、游客管理、社区管理等具体管理目标的必要环节。在明确国家公园灾害风险的特征与内涵的基础上,以国际减灾署灾害风险定量评估框架为依据,细分灾害风险源和风险受体,然后针对国家公园不同类型的灾害风险受体,以灾害风险源的危险性与灾害风险受体的脆弱性(包含敏感性、暴露性和适应性)衡量灾害风险度,结合压力-状态-响应(Pressure-State-Response, PSR)模型,构建了适用于国家公园综合灾害风险管理的评估指标体系,旨在为国家公园的灾害风险管理提供理论基础和科学依据,服务于国家公园多元化管理目标。     

Objectives versus realities: Spatial,temporal, financial and social deficiencies in Australia’s public revegetation investment model

Past and continuing fragmentation and modification of ecosystems, as well as other threatening processes, cause ongoing biodiversity losses and species extinctions in Australia. At the same time as biodiversity declines, government funding for conservation and restoration is diminishing, leading to reduced action and greater reliance on private investment and community groups. In order to maintain and restore biodiverse ecosystems and the essential services they provide, both conservation of existing vegetation and habitat reconstruction are required. In this paper, we summarise the available data on planting area and cost from the Australian Government’s 20 Million Trees programme (2014–2020), the largest recent national‐scale revegetation incentives programme in Australia. We find that the current spatial scale of effort and investment in habitat reconstruction is insufficient to match the scale required to meet national conservation objectives. Furthermore, the funding rate ($/ha) and contracting arrangements are inadequate for the establishment of high‐quality self‐sustaining vegetation needed for the recovery of Australia’s threatened species and ecological communities. We estimate that the minimum amount of funding required for habitat reconstruction is at least five times higher than is provided for current national flagship programmes such as 20 Million Trees. We provide recommendations, designed to assist future habitat reconstruction programmes achieve their long‐term biodiversity objectives.     

基于@RISK番茄潜叶蛾对我国番茄产业造成的经济损失评估

[目的]新发恶性外来入侵物种番茄潜叶蛾的入侵对我国番茄产业的安全生产造成了极大威胁。本文利用@RISK模型对化学防治、生物防治和理化诱控3种不同防治场景下我国番茄产业的潜在经济损失和投入防治后可挽回的经济损失进行综合评估,结果可为我国番茄潜叶蛾综合防治体系的构建提供参考。[方法]基于国内外文献收集到的番茄潜叶蛾危害数据（危害率、番茄产量损失率、防治成本和防治效果）,结合全国农产品商务信息公共服务平台、FAO获得我国番茄的种植面积、产量及价格等相关数据,利用@RISK模型对不防治场景和3种不同防治场景下的番茄产业的经济损失进行评估。[结果]番茄潜叶蛾在不防治场景下每年给我国番茄产业造成的经济损失总量在（8226165.67~41903398.26）万元,在化学防治（使用合成杀虫剂）、生物防治（释放天敌昆虫和微生物制剂）和理化诱控（基于灯光和合成性信息素的诱杀产品）3种不同防治场景下能有效挽回经济损失,分别为89.83%、87.90%和89.19%。[结论]基于不同的防治场景能够有效挽回番茄潜叶蛾造成的经济损失,面对该害虫在我国的严峻扩散形势,建议各级政府和行业部门应高度重视并进一步加强番茄潜叶蛾的防控,保障我国番茄产业的安全生产。     

湖泊型流域洪涝灾害经济损失多情景模拟——以南四湖流域为例

洪涝灾害情景模拟与损失预估对湖泊型流域防洪减灾和可持续发展具有重要意义。以我国典型的湖泊型流域南四湖流域为例,利用CA-Markov模型预测2030年三种用地情景,采用P-III型概率曲线构建10、20、50、100 a四个重现期强降雨情景,得到12种组合情景;通过InVEST模型和等体积淹没法量化不同情景的径流和淹没深度;在各产业GDP空间预测的基础上计算12种情景的洪涝直接经济损失。结果表明:(1) CA-Markov模型在南四湖流域的土地利用模拟精度较高,三种用地情景的各地类变化显著;(2)用地变化对流域洪涝灾害的影响显著,其中城镇发展情景下洪涝灾害风险最大,而生态保护情景风险最低;(3)暴雨强度会明显增加各用地情景的经济损失,但增幅在50 a重现期后有所减缓;生态保护情景的经济损失最少,介于97.39-128.81亿元之间,与其他情景相比,该情景可在一定程度上减少洪灾损失。为此,在气候变化背景下湖泊型流域可持续发展应充分考虑土地利用变化对洪涝灾害风险的影响,合理扩张城镇建设用地,优化布局生态用地,充分发挥国土空间规划在防洪减灾方面的作用。     

Aspects of permian palaeobotany and palynology. III. A new reconstruction of Lilpopia raciborskii (Lilpop) conert et schaarschmidt (Sphenopsida)

The early Permian plant Lilpopia raciborskii (Sphenopsida) has been found for the first time outside its type region, the Karniowice area (Poland). On the basis of this new material, collected in the “Waderner Gruppe” of Sobernheim (Nahe area, German Federal Republic), L. raciborskii is described and discussed in the light of previous concepts of this species; a new and more complete reconstruction of the taxon is presented. For the first time epidermal features are described. The heterophyllous leaves of L. raciborskii are compared with Sphenophyllum thonii var. minor Sterzel.     

Microdensitometric records from humid subtropical China show distinct climate signals in earlywood and latewood

Blue intensity (BI) from tree rings is a technique that has been widely explored for temperature reconstruction purposes in middle and high latitudes. However, it is still rather untested at lower latitudes and in drier climates, particularly in subtropical areas. Here, we develop the first series of BI-based tree-ring parameters (earlywood BI, EWBI; latewood BI, LWBI and ΔBI, the difference between LWBI and EWBI) in humid subtropical China from the species Pinus massiniana. Although the BI parameters have weaker inter-series correlations than do ring widths, they are generally better correlated with climate parameters. Our study shows a positive temperature response in the EWBI parameter and negative responses in the LWBI and ΔBI parameters. Interestingly, the correlation pattern is almost the opposite of that observed at high latitudes, where there is a pronounced positive sensitivity of the LWBI/ΔBI/MXBI parameters to temperature.We find the EWBI to be the most robust parameter for reconstruction purposes. The positive March–May average temperature signal of EWBI is stable across frequencies and shows consistent interdecadal variations with other temperature proxy series from the region. The compilation of new tree-ring records using the BI technique will ultimately support our understanding of climate history. For this reason, we encourage similar attempts to push the boundaries of the BI technique even further.     

污染湖泊生态系统服务净价值评估——以滇池为例

水污染是我国湖泊生态系统面临的主要环境问题,评估污染条件下湖泊生态系统服务价值对认识和恢复污染湖泊生态功能具有重要意义。针对当前湖泊生态系统服务价值评估方法中未体现水污染负面影响的问题,在传统生态系统服务功能价值评估框架的基础上,将水污染造成的经济损失内化到生态系统服务功能价值中,提出了针对污染湖泊的生态系统服务功能价值评估方法。应用该方法核算了滇池生态系统服务净价值。结果表明:2006—2015年滇池年均生态系统服务功能价值为386.55亿元/a,水污染改变了滇池的价值结构,供水价值丧失,气候调节、旅游和蓄水等成为滇池生态系统服务功能价值的主体;滇池水污染对流域内外经济社会发展造成的损失达到15.23亿元/a,主要经济损失体现在生态补水费用和蓝藻去除费用;综合湖泊生态系统服务的正向价值和水污染的负向损失,滇池的净生态系统服务价值为371.33亿元/a,占流域GDP的11.7%。将水污染损失纳入湖泊生态系统服务功能价值评估中增强了评价结果的合理性,能够更加真实地反映湖泊生态系统对人类经济社会发展的综合影响。     

Inefficacy of wetland legislation for conserving Quebec wetlands as revealed by mapping of recent disturbances

To minimize wetland losses, many jurisdictions have adopted a ‘mitigation sequence’ that requires compliance for permit delivery. This study evaluated the outcome of this sequence in the province of Quebec, Canada, during the 3 years following its adoption in 2006. A case study was then conducted in the St. Lawrence Lowlands (29,096 km²) to compare statistics on delivered permits with losses detected by detailed mapping of disturbances from two periods: 1990 to 2011 and 2006 to 2011. A total of 558 permits were issued, most of which (550) represented 2870 ha of disturbed wetlands; the remaining (8) corresponding to restoration projects. The mitigation sequence was applied for 323 of the permits, mainly with compensations. The type of action undertaken was registered for only 63 % of the compensations with a minimal fraction dedicated to wetland restoration (1 ha) and creation (14 ha), resulting in a net loss of 99 % of the impacted wetland areas. In the case study, 56,681 ha (19 %) of wetlands had been disturbed in the last two decades, of which 22,535 ha were disturbed between 2006 and 2011, mainly by agricultural and forestry activities. No permit was delivered for these two activities according to our compilation. The area disturbed following permit deliverance was about 17–30 times smaller than losses estimated by our detailed mapping, depending on the period considered. Preserving wetlands will require not only mandatory compliance with the mitigation sequence but also efforts to subscribe all types of industries to the process of permit delivery.     

June–September temperature reconstruction in the Northern Caucasus based on blue intensity data

Although long-lived trees grow in the Northern Caucasus, no single tree-ring chronology has been reported thus far from this area in the International Tree-Ring Data Base (ITRDB), neither has one been published in international journals. Extensive tree-ring studies were conducted over the last decade, and a tree-ring network was developed for the investigated area. The data on the minimum blue intensity based on 33 series of pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and fir (Abies nordmanniana (Steven) Spach) is presented in this study. The minimum blue intensity (BI) chronology covers the period 1596–2011 with EPS value ≥0.85. The BI chronology strongly correlates with the mean June-September temperature (R = 0.74; p < 0.05) from the weather station “Kluhorskij Pereval” (1951–2011). Mean June-September temperature anomalies were reconstructed using the rescaling method. Based on the reconstruction provided in this study the twentieth century is characterized by highly increased June-September temperature. According to this study, the minimum blue intensity approach demonstrates a great potential for paleoclimatic research in the Caucasus. Vast spatial coverage of the new BI-based reconstruction based on data from only two locations in the Northern Caucasus provides prospects for reconstruction of temperature variations for a great region in the Middle East and Northern Africa.     

Economic development,climate and values: making policy

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity.     

Dynamic graph convolution neural network based on spatial-temporal correlation for air quality prediction

Air pollution is a serious threat to both the ecological environment and the physical health of individuals. Therefore, accurate air quality prediction is urgent and necessary for pollution mitigation and residents’ travel. However, few existing models are established based on the dynamic spatiotemporal correlation of air pollutants to predict air quality. In this paper, a novel deep learning model combining the dynamic graph convolutional network and the multi-channel temporal convolutional network (DGC-MTCN) is proposed for air quality prediction. To efficiently represent the time-varying spatial dependencies, a new spatiotemporal dynamic correlation calculation method based on gray relation analysis is proposed to construct dynamic adjacency matrices. Then, the spatiotemporal features are sufficiently extracted by the graph convolutional network and the multi-channel temporal convolutional network. Two real-world air quality datasets collected from Beijing and Fushun are applied to verify the performance of our proposed model. The experimental results show that compared with other baselines, the DGC-MTCN model has excellent prediction accuracy. Especially for the prediction of multi-step and different stations, our model performs better temporal stability and generalization ability.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Coal Workers' Pneumoconiosis Prevention Based on Its Predicted Incidence within the Datong Coal Mine Group in China

We aimed to estimate the economic losses currently caused by coal workers’ pneumoconiosis (CWP) and, on the basis of these measurements, confirm the economic benefit of preventive measures. Our cohort study included 1,847 patients with CWP and 43,742 coal workers without CWP who were registered in the employment records of the Datong Coal Mine Group. We calculated the cumulative incidence rate of pneumoconiosis using the life-table method. We used the dose-response relationship between cumulative incidence density and cumulative dust exposure to predict the future trend in the incidence of CWP. We calculate the economic loss caused by CWP and economic effectiveness of CWP prevention by a step-wise model. The cumulative incidence rates of CWP in the tunneling, mining, combining, and helping cohorts were 58.7%, 28.1%, 21.7%, and 4.0%, respectively. The cumulative incidence rates increased gradually with increasing cumulative dust exposure (CDE). We predicted 4,300 new CWP cases, assuming the dust concentrations remained at the levels of 2011. If advanced dustproof equipment was adopted, 537 fewer people would be diagnosed with CWP. In all, losses of 1.207 billion Renminbi (RMB, official currency of China) would be prevented and 4,698.8 healthy life years would be gained. Investments in advanced dustproof equipment would be total 843 million RMB, according to our study; the ratio of investment to restored economic losses was 1:1.43. Controlling workplace dust concentrations is critical to reduce the onset of pneumoconiosis and to achieve economic benefits.     

Assessing Patterns of Human-Wildlife Conflicts and Compensation around a Central Indian Protected Area

Mitigating crop and livestock loss to wildlife and improving compensation distribution are important for conservation efforts in landscapes where people and wildlife co-occur outside protected areas. The lack of rigorously collected spatial data poses a challenge to management efforts to minimize loss and mitigate conflicts. We surveyed 735 households from 347 villages in a 5154 km² area surrounding Kanha Tiger Reserve in India. We modeled self-reported household crop and livestock loss as a function of agricultural, demographic and environmental factors, and mitigation measures. We also modeled self-reported compensation received by households as a function of demographic factors, conflict type, reporting to authorities, and wildlife species involved. Seventy-three percent of households reported crop loss and 33% livestock loss in the previous year, but less than 8% reported human injury or death. Crop loss was associated with greater number of cropping months per year and proximity to the park. Livestock loss was associated with grazing animals inside the park and proximity to the park. Among mitigation measures only use of protective physical structures were associated with reduced livestock loss. Compensation distribution was more likely for tiger related incidents, and households reporting loss and located in the buffer. Average estimated probability of crop loss was 0.93 and livestock loss was 0.60 for surveyed households. Estimated crop and livestock loss and compensation distribution were higher for households located inside the buffer. Our approach modeled conflict data to aid managers in identifying potential conflict hotspots, influential factors, and spatially maps risk probability of crop and livestock loss. This approach could help focus allocation of conservation efforts and funds directed at conflict prevention and mitigation where high densities of people and wildlife co-occur.