Improvement of Disease Prediction and Modeling through the Use of Meteorological Ensembles: Human Plague in Uganda

Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.     

Historical Advances in Structural and Molecular Biology and How They Impacted Vaccine Development

Vaccines are among the greatest tools for prevention and control of disease. They have eliminated smallpox from the planet, decreased morbidity and mortality for major infectious diseases like polio, measles, mumps, and rubella, significantly blunted the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and prevented viral induced cancers such as cervical cancer caused by human papillomavirus. Recent technological advances, in genomics, structural biology, and human immunology have transformed vaccine development, enabling new technologies such as mRNA vaccines to greatly accelerate development of new and improved vaccines. In this review, we briefly highlight the history of vaccine development, and provide examples of where advances in genomics and structural biology, paved the way for development of vaccines for bacterial and viral diseases.     

Enfermedad crónica,mortalidad, discapacidad y pérdida de movilidad en ancianos españoles: estudio FRADEA

Introduction

The objective of this study was to analyse the relationships between the major chronic diseases and multiple morbidity, with mortality, incident disability in basic activities of daily living, and loss of mobility in the elderly.

Material and methods

A total of 943 participants were selected from the FRADEA Study, using available baseline data of chronic diseases, and at the follow-up visit of mortality, incident disability, and loss of mobility. The analysis was made of the unadjusted and adjusted association between the number of chronic diseases, the number of 14 pre-selected diseases, and the presence of two or more chronic diseases (multiple morbidity) with adverse health events recorded.

Results

Participants with a higher number of diseases (OR 1.11; 95% CI: 1.02-1.22), and 14 pre-selected diseases (OR 1.19; 95% CI: 1.03-1.38) had a higher adjusted mortality risk, but not a higher incident disease or mobility loss risk. Subjects with multiple morbidity had a higher non-significant mortality risk (HR 1.45; 95% CI: 0.87-2.43), than those without multiple morbidity. Disability-free mean time in participants with and without multiple morbidity was 846 ± 34 and 731 ± 17 days, respectively (Log-rank χ² 7.45. P =.006), and with our without mobility loss was 818±32 and 696±13 days, respectively (Log rank χ² 10.99. P =.001).

Conclusions

Multiple morbidity was not associated with mortality, incident disability in ADL, or mobility loss in adults older than 70 years, although if mortality is taken into account, the number of chronic diseases is linear.     

1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine-lesioned model of parkinson's disease, with emphasis on mice and nonhuman primates

Animal models play a critical role in our understanding of the cause of human diseases and provide an opportunity to evaluate new therapeutic treatments. The usefulness of an animal model is dependent, in part, on how closely it resembles neurochemical, neuropathologic, and behavioral features of the human condition. Other considerations that may enhance the value of a model include expense, availability, reproducibility, animal morbidity and mortality, and investigator experience. Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterized by slow movements, tremor, and walking impairment due to loss of midbrain nigrostriatal neurons and depletion of striatal dopamine. In the PD research field, a number of neurotoxic, pharmacologic, and transgenic animal models are available for research studies. We will focus on the advantages and disadvantages of the 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP)-lesioned mouse and nonhuman primate models of PD. Our goal is to guide researchers in the appropriateness of the MPTP models in their studies by balancing understanding of the models, objectives of the study, and health and safety of the animals. In addition, the technical use and safe handling of MPTP are discussed.     

The Behavioral Characteristics of Individuals Who Lose Weight Unintentionally

MCGUIRE, MAUREEN T., RENA R. WING, MARY L. KLEM, AND JAMES O. HILL. The behavioral characteristics of individuals who lose weight unintentionally. Obes Res. Objective: To determine whether individuals who unintentionally lost weight differ from individuals who intentionally lost weight in behavioral characteristics related to chronic disease risk factors. Design: A random-digit dial telephone survey was conducted among a representative sample of American adults (n = 500). Subjects: Of the 500 individuals sampled, 139 were currently ≥10% below their lifetime maximum weight. These individuals were asked whether their weight loss was unintentional or intentional. Unintentional (n = 49) and intentional (n = 89) weight losers were compared on measures of dietary intake, physical activity, smoking, drinking, and self-reported health status. Results: Unintentional weight losers had higher levels of smoking and drinking, were less physically active, and were less concerned about their diet and fat intake. Unintentional weight losers did not report having higher levels of disease such as high blood pressure or diabetes. However, unintentional weight losers who reported having such diseases were more likely to report that their weight loss had no effect or had worsened their disorder. Discussion: Compared to intentional weight losers, those who lost their weight unintentionally reported engaging in more negative health behaviors that are related to disease morbidity and mortality. These data suggest that unintentional weight loss may be part of a cluster of behaviors that have a negative health impact.     

Arsenic and weight loss: At a crossroad between lipogenesis and lipolysis

Arsenic is found in soil, food, water and earth crust. Arsenic exposure is associated with chronic diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease as well as diabetes. One of complex effects of arsenic is on weight gain or loss. Involvement of arsenic in both weight loss and gain signaling pathways has previously been reported; however, too little attention has been paid to its weight reducing effect. Animal studies exhibited a role of arsenic in weight loss. In this regard, arsenic interference with endocrine system, leptin and adiponectin hormones as well as thermogenesis is more evidence. Apparently, arsenic-induced weight lossis generally meditated by its interaction with thermogenesis. In this review we have discussed the irregularities in metabolic pathways induced by arsenic that can lead to weight loss.     

Retrospective study of morbidity and mortality of captive jaguars (Panthera onca) in North America: 1982–2002

One hundred seventy‐two medical records of captive jaguars (Panthera onca) were examined from 30 American Zoo and Aquarium Association (AZA) institutions housing jaguars between 1982–2002. The study determined common causes of morbidity and mortality, and the influence of age, gender, and melengestrol‐acetate (MGA) exposure on these rates. The most common causes of morbidity in captive jaguars were found to be dental, gastrointestinal, integumentary, and musculoskeletal diseases. Prevalence of types of disease varied with age, with older animals experiencing a higher prevalence of multiple types of disease. Females developed reproductive disease more frequently than males, and the data suggest that MGA exposure increased the risk of developing female reproductive disease. The most common causes of mortality were reproductive diseases in females and musculoskeletal diseases in males. There was a high rate of neonate and pediatric mortality, primarily due to stillbirths or unexplained neonatal death, trauma, and pneumonia. Other diseases or clinical signs that seemed remarkable were a high prevalence of episodes of epistaxis among young, as well as old, jaguars. Based on these findings, management suggestions for the captive jaguar population are presented. Zoo Biol 0:1–12, 2006. © 2006 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Cardiovascular risk in pediatric-onset rheumatological diseases

Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are becoming major health concerns for adults with inflammatory rheumatic diseases. The enhanced atherogenesis in this patient population is promoted by the exposure to traditional risk factors as well as nontraditional cardiovascular insults, such as corticosteroid therapy, chronic inflammation and autoantibodies. Despite definite differences between many adult-onset and pediatric-onset rheumatologic diseases, it is extremely likely that atherosclerosis will become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in this pediatric patient population. Because cardiovascular events are rare at this young age, surrogate measures of atherosclerosis must be used. The three major noninvasive vascular measures of early atherosclerosis - namely, flow-mediated dilatation, carotid intima-media thickness and pulse wave velocity - can be performed easily on children. Few studies have explored the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and even fewer have used the surrogate vascular measures to document signs of early atherosclerosis in children with pediatric-onset rheumatic diseases. The objective of this review is to provide an overview on cardiovascular risk and early atherosclerosis in pediatric-onset systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis and juvenile dermatomyositis patients, and to review cardiovascular preventive strategies that should be considered in this population.     

Guidelines for managing captive Iberian ibex herds for conservation purposes

Overexploitation, pollution, habitat loss or emerging diseases have led to a large number of species to extinction. This has made zoos and wildlife enclosures expand their goals beyond entertainment and fun; their participation in conservation and research programs is important for the recovery of multiple species. To ensure success, staff need to know the specific requirements of each species. In case of the Iberian ibex (Capra pyreanica), a wild ungulate endemic to the Iberian Peninsula, different sarcoptic mange outbreaks caused dramatic declines of some ibex populations, which led managers and researchers to explore strategies aimed at preventing and controlling this disease and to reduce its impact on ibex populations. Such management plans included the creation of stock reservoirs as an in-situ conservation measure. The objective of the stock reservoir El Toril, as a key part of a general management plan, is to keep in captivity (in range) a sex and age structured representation of the free-ranging population, with most of its genetic variability, destined for conservation programs. However, under captivity conditions with potential for high concentration of animals, direct contact and stress occur and the appearance, transmission, and severity of diseases could be favored. Therefore, it is necessary to establish health protocols in order to guarantee animal welfare. Spanish Animal Health laws establish specific requirements and preventive measures for controlling diseases in captive populations: sarcoptic mange, tuberculosis, brucellosis and bluetongue are notifiable diseases, and the staff of the reservoir must apply specific diagnostic methods to detect them. The management recommendations presented here may be very useful for other managers involved in the conservation of wild ruminants.     

Age- and sex-specific mortality patterns in an emerging wildlife epidemic: the phocine distemper in European harbour seals

Analyses of the dynamics of diseases in wild populations typically assume all individuals to be identical. However, profound effects on the long-term impact on the host population can be expected if the disease has age and sex dependent dynamics. The Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV) caused two mass mortalities in European harbour seals in 1988 and in 2002. We show the mortality patterns were highly age specific on both occasions, where young of the year and adult (>4 yrs) animals suffered extremely high mortality, and sub-adult seals (1-3 yrs) of both sexes experienced low mortality. Consequently, genetic differences cannot have played a main role explaining why some seals survived and some did not in the study region, since parents had higher mortality levels than their progeny. Furthermore, there was a conspicuous absence of animals older than 14 years among the victims in 2002, which strongly indicates that the survivors from the previous disease outbreak in 1988 had acquired and maintained immunity to PDV. These specific mortality patterns imply that contact rates and susceptibility to the disease are strongly age and sex dependent variables, underlining the need for structured epidemic models for wildlife diseases. Detailed data can thus provide crucial information about a number of vital parameters such as functional herd immunity. One of many future challenges in understanding the epidemiology of the PDV and other wildlife diseases is to reveal how immune system responses differ among animals in different stages during their life cycle. The influence of such underlying mechanisms may also explain the limited evidence for abrupt disease thresholds in wild populations.     

Veterinary public health activities at FAO: echinococcosis/hydatid disease

Cystic hydatidosis is a zoonotic disease that remain as a significant cause of human morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. The disease has veterinary public health implications. FAO is involved with some activities in the control of echinococcosis/hydatid disease: within the Animal Production and Health Division the Veterinary Public Health (VHP) Programme is constituted by members of the different Services (Animal Health, Animal Production, and Livestock Policy) within the Division. FAO regular programme has also established a global network of professionals directly involved in VPH. Furthermore FAO's Technical Cooperation Projects (TCP) is a tool to assist member countries in responding to urgent and unforeseen demands.     

Tissue loss (white syndrome) in the coral Montipora capitata is a dynamic disease with multiple host responses and potential causes

Tissue loss diseases or white syndromes (WS) are some of the most important coral diseases because they result in significant colony mortality and morbidity, threatening dominant Acroporidae in the Caribbean and Pacific. The causes of WS remain elusive in part because few have examined affected corals at the cellular level. We studied the cellular changes associated with WS over time in a dominant Hawaiian coral, Montipora capitata, and showed that: (i) WS has rapidly progressing (acute) phases mainly associated with ciliates or slowly progressing (chronic) phases mainly associated with helminths or chimeric parasites; (ii) these phases interchanged and waxed and waned; (iii) WS could be a systemic disease associated with chimeric parasitism or a localized disease associated with helminths or ciliates; (iv) corals responded to ciliates mainly with necrosis and to helminths or chimeric parasites with wound repair; (v) mixed infections were uncommon; and (vi) other than cyanobacteria, prokaryotes associated with cell death were not seen. Recognizing potential agents associated with disease at the cellular level and the host response to those agents offers a logical deductive rationale to further explore the role of such agents in the pathogenesis of WS in M. capitata and helps explain manifestation of gross lesions. This approach has broad applicability to the study of the pathogenesis of coral diseases in the field and under experimental settings.     

Antiprotozoal alkaloid principles of the plant family Amaryllidaceae

Protozoan-borne diseases are prominent amongst diseases caused by parasites. Given their alarming morbidity and mortality statistics, there is ever growing interest in new therapies against these diseases. Whilst synthetic drugs such as benznidazole and melarsoprol have had a profound influence on the clinical setup, there has been significant interest in the phytochemical platform to also deliver such drug candidates. The plant family Amaryllidaceae is recognizable for its isoquinoline alkaloids, which exhibit attractive molecular architectures and interesting biological properties. This survey focuses on the antiprotozoal activities of 73 of such substances described in 18 different species of the Amaryllidaceae. Of these, 2-O-acetyllycorine was identified as the most potent (IC₅₀ 0.15 μg/mL against Trypansoma brucei brucei). Also considered are structure-activity relationships which have served to modulate activities, as well as the plausible mechanisms that underpin these effects and afford insight to the Amaryllidaceae alkaloid antiprotozoal pharmacophore.     

Sex differentials in morbidity and mortality in the United States

Abstract

Life expectation of females in the United States exceeds that of males, but females’ health while living appears worse. Based on self‐reports of illness, females have higher incidence rates for acute conditions, and a higher percentage of them have a chronic condition. The paper examines sex differentials in mortality and morbidity for 1958–72, using national vital statistics and Health Interview Survey data. The reversal of mortality and morbidity sex differentials in the aggregate is due in part to a distribution effect, diseases with a male excess being weighted heavily in mortality, but those with a female excess dominating morbidity. For specific conditions, sex morbidity and sex mortality differentials are usually in the same direction, the sicker sex being more likely to die. For several conditions, however, females have higher morbidity but lower mortality than males. By incorporating diagnostic data, these reversals are attributed to females’ interviewing and illness behavior, rather than to higher physical morbidity.     

Pathogen genomic surveillance elucidates the origins,transmission and evolution of emerging viral agents in China

In the past twenty years, numerous novel zoonotic viral agents with pandemic potential have emerged in China, such as the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus and, more recently, the avian-origin influenza A/H7N9 virus, which have caused outbreaks among humans with high morbidity and mortality. In addition, several emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens have also been imported into China from travelers, e.g. the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus and Zika virus (ZIKV). Herein, we review these emerging viral pathogens in China and focus on how surveillance by pathogen genomics has been employed to discover and annotate novel pathogenic agents, identify natural reservoirs, monitor the transmission events and delineate their evolution and adaption to the human host. We also highlight the application of genomic sequencing in the recent Ebola epidemics in Western Africa. In summary, genomic sequencing has become a standard research tool in the field of emerging infectious diseases which has been proven invaluable in containing these viral infections and reducing burden of disease in humans and animals. Genomic surveillance of pathogenic agents will serve as a key epidemiological and research tool in the modern era of precision infectious diseases and in the future studies of virosphere.     

Animal models simulating anaerobic infections

Animal models simulating human disease have played an important role in our understanding of the pathogenesis and treatment of infections caused by obligately anaerobic bacteria. These models helped document the primary source of such infections as the host's own normal microflora. In addition, the polymicrobial nature of anaerobic infections was documented by using animal models for intraabdominal sepsis. Subsequent studies using animal models have led to an understanding of the nature of the host immune response to abscess causing agents and have been instrumental in defining the molecular basis for the virulence and protection provided by the polysaccharide capsule of Bacteroides fragilis. Animal models have also been important components for studies of toxigenic clostridial diseases, such as antibiotic associated colitis and ulcerative colitis. A discussion of some of these models is provided in this review.     

Gene Specific DNA Sensors for Diagnosis of Pathogenic Infections

Gene specific DNA based sensors have potential applications for rapid and real time monitoring of hybridization signal with the target nucleic acid of pathogens. Different types of DNA based sensors and their applications have been studied for rapid and accurate detection of pathogens causing human diseases. These sensors are based on surface plasmon resonance, quantum-dots, molecular beacons, piezoelectric and electrochemical etc. Curbing epidemics at an early stage is one of the massive challenges in healthcare systems. Timely detection of the causative organism may provide a solution to restrain mortality caused by the disease. With the advent of interdisciplinary sciences, bioelectronics has emerged as an effective alternative for disease diagnostics. Gene specific DNA sensors present themselves as cost-effective, sensitive and specific platforms for detection of disease causing pathogens. The mini review explores different transducer based sensors and their potential in diagnosis of acute and chronic diseases.     

Social and economic significance of enterovirus infection and its role in etiologic structure of infectious diseases in the world

Human enteroviruses comprised by more than 100 serotypes, they spread everywhere and can cause wide spectrum of diseases as well as significant social and economic loss. Influenza-like illness and mild forms of enterovirus infection (herpangina, exanthema) are widespread and causes of significant number of visits in clinics. Economic cost of mild form of enterovirus infection is not high although great number of cases (10 - 15 mln cases yearly in USA) determines its important economic significance. Single cases and outbreaks of enterovirus aseptic meningitis occur less frequently but lead to significant economic burden due to hospitalization costs. Enteroviruses are also cause up to 30% of sepsis-like disease in newborns and play important role in infant morbidity and mortality. Potential of enteroviruses as a source of new diseases in humans has a special significance for practical healthcare. In XX century enteroviruses became a cause of pandemics of paralytic poliomyelitis, hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, and foot-and-mouth-like disease, which caused vast social and economic loss, and emergence of new forms of enterovirus infection is quite possible in XXI century.     

SARS-CoV-2 associated COVID-19 in geriatric population: A brief narrative review

Coronavirus disease 2019 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2), has emerged as a fatal pandemic and has crushed even the world’s best healthcare systems. Globally, it has affected 40,373,228 individuals and resulted in 1,119,568 deaths as of October 19, 2020. Research studies have demonstrated that geriatric population is vastly vulnerable to COVID-19 morbidity and mortality given their age and preexisting chronic comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary and chronic kidney disease The data regarding susceptibility of elderly population to COVID-19 is accruing and suggests that factors like age, gender, chronic comorbidity, inflammaging, immunosenescence and renin angiotensin system may be the contributing risk factors towards COVID-19 and associated mortality in elderly population. Based on updated scientific literature, this narrative review précises the clinical presentations and underlying risk factors that might be associated with COVID-19 morbidity in geriatric population and provides informed insights, and discusses clinical presentation, psychosocial impact, mortality and potential corticosteroid treatment and prevention strategies of COVID-19 in older adults.