Host patch selection induced by parasitism: basic reproduction ratio r(0) and optimal virulence

The effects of parasites on the behavior of their hosts are well documented. For example, parasites may affect the habitat selection of the host individual. We used variables aggregation methods to investigate the way in which parasites affect the spatial pattern of susceptible hosts. We developed a simple epidemiological model, taking into account both the reproduction processes of hosts (density-dependent birth and death) and infection, considered separately on two different patches, and the migration of susceptible hosts between these two patches. We used the complete model of three equations to generate an aggregated model describing the dynamics of the combined susceptible and infected host populations. We obtained the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) from the aggregated model, and then studied the effect of the migratory behavior of susceptible hosts on the ability of the parasite to invade the system. We also used the basic reproduction ratio to investigate the evolution of parasite virulence in relation to the migration decisions of susceptible hosts. We found that host investment in avoidance of the infected patch leads to an increase in optimal virulence if host investment is costly.     

Past attacks influence host selection by the solitary bark beetle Dendroctonus micans

1. A spatio‐temporal study of host selection and local spread of a solitary bark beetle attacking live spruce Dendroctonus micans (Kugelann) was carried out using a combination of standard statistical methods, geostatistical analyses, and modelling. The study was based on data from three plots (150–300 trees, 0.3–1 ha) from 1978 to 1993. All trees were mapped and successful and abortive bark‐beetle attacks on each tree were counted annually. Because the attacked trees usually survived, temporal attack patterns as well as spatial patterns could be analysed. 2. The distribution of successful insect attacks on the trees was slightly aggregative, indicating some degree of choice rather than totally random establishment. 3. The level of yearly individual attacks per tree was very stable, suggesting that D. micans usually leave the host in which they develop. 4. The attacked trees were distributed randomly in the plots; at the study's spatial scale, the insects dispersed freely throughout the plot (no spatial dependence). 5. On the other hand, time dependence was strong; some trees were attacked repeatedly while others were left untouched. 6. Among a choice of scenarios (random attack, fixed variability in individual host susceptibility, induced host susceptibility following random attack), the best fit was obtained with the model involving induced individual host susceptibility. This type of relation to the host tree contrasts strongly with patterns generally described in host–plant relationships (including gregarious, tree‐killing bark beetles), where local herbivore damage results in induced resistance. 7. These results suggest that the first attacks in a new stand are made at random, that all or most of the beetles emerging from a tree disperse and resample the stand, and that they settle preferentially on trees that were colonised successfully by previous generations.     

Behavioral stabilization of host-parasite population dynamics

We demonstrate that individual behavior can stabilize classical (Nicholson-Bailey) host-parasite population dynamics. Our model assumes that hosts can be divided into at least two phenotypes and that parasites either do not attack one of the phenotypes or attack them facultatively. The former case corresponds to a behavioral refuge (Hassell 1978) and it is known that other kinds of refuges lead to stability of population dynamics. Behavioral refuges can stabilize the population dynamics in the same way that spatial refuges do. When parasites attack hosts facultatively within the year, strange attractors may arise in the year-to-year population dynamics, in response to the nonlinear nature of the facultative response to the distribution of host densities.     

An outbreak vector-host epidemic model with spatial structure: the 2015–2016 Zika outbreak in Rio De Janeiro

Background

A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors tosusceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an outbreak that arises from a small number of infected hosts imported into a subregion of the geographical setting. The goal is to understand how spatial heterogeneity of the vector and host populations influences the dynamics of the outbreak, in both the geographical spread and the final size of the epidemic.

Methods

Partial differential equations are formulated to describe the spatial interaction of the hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations have reaction-diffusion terms to describe the criss-cross interactions of hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations of the model are analyzed and proven to be well-posed. A local basic reproduction number for the epidemic is analyzed.

Results

The epidemic outcomes of the model are correlated to the spatially dependent parameters and initial conditions of the model. The partial differential equations of the model are adapted to seasonality of the vector population, and applied to the 2015–2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality in Brazil.

Conclusions

The results for the model simulations of the 2015–2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality indicate that the spatial distribution and final size of the epidemic at the end of the season are strongly dependent on the location and magnitude of local outbreaks at the beginning of the season. The application of the model to the Rio de Janeiro Municipality Zika 2015–2016 outbreak is limited by incompleteness of the epidemic data and by uncertainties in the parametric assumptions of the model.

     

Stage-structured infection transmission and a spatial epidemic: a model for Lyme disease

A greater understanding of the rate at which emerging disease advances spatially has both ecological and applied significance. Analyzing the spread of vector-borne disease can be relatively complex when the vector's acquisition of a pathogen and subsequent transmission to a host occur in different life stages. A contemporary example is Lyme disease. A long-lived tick vector acquires infection during the larval blood meal and transmits it as a nymph. We present a reaction-diffusion model for the ecological dynamics governing the velocity of the current epidemic's spread. We find that the equilibrium density of infectious tick nymphs (hence the risk of human disease) can depend on density-independent survival interacting with biotic effects on the tick's stage structure. The local risk of infection reaches a maximum at an intermediate level of adult tick mortality and at an intermediate rate of juvenile tick attacks on mammalian hosts. If the juvenile tick attack rate is low, an increase generates both a greater density of infectious nymphs and an increased spatial velocity. However, if the juvenile attack rate is relatively high, nymph density may decline while the epidemic's velocity still increases. Velocities of simulated two-dimensional epidemics correlate with the model pathogen's basic reproductive number (R0), but calculating R0 involves parameters of both host infection dynamics and the vector's stage-structured dynamics.     

A model of predator-prey dynamics as modified by the action of a parasite

A predator-prey population is described in which the prey population may be either a secondary host or a primary host to a parasite, but the predator is always a primary host. Those prey that have been invaded by the parasite have their behavior modified so as to make them more susceptible to predation. The model is described by a system of three autonomous ordinary differential equations. Conditions for persistence of all populations are given in the case that both populations are primary hosts. A brief discussion of the stability of the interior equilibrium is given.     

Site condition and predation influence a bark beetle's success: a spatially realistic approach

Abstract 1 Spatial pattern in abundance of Dendroctonus micans was studied in a 600‐ha spruce stand in the Massif Central (Lozère, France). The proportion of trees attacked was measured in 38 plots and these data were used to estimate spatial pattern of attack density in the stand and to identify a transect of decreasing attack density (80% to 30%) over less than 1000 m. 2 Spatial variation in attack density was analysed in relation to (i) data on site and stand characteristics (altitude, slope, tree density, tree average height, yield class and average age) collected from 63 points in the stand and (ii) the releases of the predator Rhizophagus grandis (localization and number of beetles released). 3 The proportion of attacked trees was analysed using geostatistics and showed a strong spatial structure reflecting the spatial scale of interaction of D. micans with its environment. The spatial structure was modelled in order to estimate the spatial distribution of attack density at unsampled locations. 4 A linear model relating interpolated attack density to the number of predators released 6–10 years before the survey in a 300‐m radius and to the average slope over a 250‐m radius explained 67% of the observed variability. Spatial autocorrelation was taken into account in a spatial regression model.     

An Exploration of Hypotheses that Explain Herbivore and Pathogen Attack in Restored Plant Communities

Many hypotheses address the associations of plant community composition with natural enemies, including: (i) plant species diversity may reduce enemy attack, (ii) attack may increase as host abundance increases, (iii) enemy spillover may lead to increased attack on one host species due to transmission from another host species, or enemy dilution may lead to reduced attack on a host that would otherwise have more attack, (iv) physical characteristics of the plant community may influence attack, and (v) plant vigor may affect attack. Restoration experiments with replicated plant communities provide an exceptional opportunity to explore these hypotheses. To explore the relative predictive strengths of these related hypotheses and to investigate the potential effect of several restoration site preparation techniques, we surveyed arthropod herbivore and fungal pathogen attack on the six most common native plant species in a restoration experiment. Multi-model inference revealed a weak but consistent negative correlation with pathogen attack and host diversity across the plant community, and no correlation between herbivory and host diversity. Our analyses also revealed host species-specific relationships between attack and abundance of the target host species, other native plant species, introduced plant species, and physical community characteristics. We found no relationship between enemy attack and plant vigor. We found minimal differences in plant community composition among several diverse site preparation techniques, and limited effects of site preparation techniques on attack. The strongest associations of community characteristics with attack varied among plant species with no community-wide patterns, suggesting that no single hypothesis successfully predicts the dominant community-wide trends in enemy attack.     

A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen

Many pathogens of plants are transmitted by arthropod vectors whose movement between individual hosts is influenced by foraging behavior. Insect foraging has been shown to depend on both the quality of hosts and the distances between hosts. Given the spatial distribution of host plants and individual variation in quality, vector foraging patterns may therefore produce predictable variation in exposure to pathogens. We develop a "gravity" model to describe the spatial spread of a vector-borne plant pathogen from underlying models of insect foraging in response to host quality using the pollinator-borne smut fungus Microbotryum violaceum as a case study. We fit the model to spatially explicit time series of M. violaceum transmission in replicate experimental plots of the white campion Silene latifolia. The gravity model provides a better fit than a mean field model or a model with only distance-dependent transmission. The results highlight the importance of active vector foraging in generating spatial patterns of disease incidence and for pathogen-mediated selection for floral traits.     

Spatial heterogeneity in parasite infections at different spatial scales in an intertidal bivalve

Spatial heterogeneities in the abundance of free-living organisms as well as in infection levels of their parasites are a common phenomenon, but knowledge on parasitism in invertebrate intermediate hosts in this respect is scarce. We investigated the spatial pattern of four dominant trematode species which utilize a common intertidal bivalve, the cockle Cerastoderma edule, as second intermediate host in their life cycles. Sampling of cockles from the same cohort at 15 sites in the northern Wadden Sea (North Sea) over a distance of 50 km revealed a conspicuous spatial heterogeneity in infection levels in all four species over the total sample as well as among and within sampling sites. Whereas multiple regression analyses indicated the density of first intermediate upstream hosts to be the strongest determinant of infection levels in cockles, the situation within sites was more complex with no single strong predictor variable. However, host size was positively and host density negatively correlated with infection levels and there was an indication of differential susceptibility of cockle hosts. Small-scale differences in physical properties of the habitat in the form of residual water at low tide resulted in increased infection levels of cockles which we experimentally transferred into pools. A complex interplay of these factors may be responsible for within-site heterogeneities. At larger spatial scales, these factors may be overridden by the strong effect of upstream hosts. In contrast to first intermediate trematode hosts, there was no indication for inter-specific interactions. In other terms, the recruitment of trematodes in second intermediate hosts seems to be largely controlled by pre-settlement processes both among and within host populations.     

Stand‐replacing fires reduce susceptibility of lodgepole pine to mountain pine beetle outbreaks in Colorado

Aim As climate change is increasing the frequency, severity and extent of wildfire and bark beetle outbreaks, it is important to understand how these disturbances interact to affect ecological patterns and processes, including susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. Stand‐replacing fires and outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (MPB), Dendroctonus ponderosae, are both important disturbances in the lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta, forests of the Rocky Mountains. In the current study we investigated how time since the last stand‐replacing fire affects the susceptibility of the stand to MPB outbreaks in these forests. We hypothesized that at a stand‐scale, young post‐fire stands (< c. 100–150 years old) are less susceptible to past and current MPB outbreaks than are older stands. Location Colorado, USA. Methods We used dendroecological methods to reconstruct stand‐origin dates and the history of outbreaks in 23 lodgepole pine stands. Results The relatively narrow range of establishment dates among the oldest trees in most sampled stands suggested that these stands originated after stand‐replacing or partially stand‐replacing fires over the past three centuries. Stands were affected by MPB outbreaks in the 1940s/1950s, 1980s and 2000s/2010s. Susceptibility to outbreaks generally increased with stand age (i.e. time since the last stand‐replacing fire). However, this reduced susceptibility of younger post‐fire stands was most pronounced for the 1940s/1950s outbreak, less so for the 1980s outbreak, and did not hold true for the 2000s/2010s outbreak. Main conclusions Younger stands may not have been less susceptible to the most recent outbreak because: (1) after stands reach a threshold age of > 100–150 years, stand age does not affect susceptibility to outbreaks, or (2) the high intensity of the most recent outbreak reduces the importance of pre‐disturbance conditions for susceptibility to disturbance. If the warm and dry conditions that contribute to MPB outbreaks concurrently increase the frequency and/or extent of severe fires, they may thereby mitigate the otherwise increased landscape‐scale susceptibility to outbreaks. Potential increases in severe fires driven by warm and dry climatic trends may lead to a negative feedback by making lodgepole pine stands less susceptible to future MPB outbreaks.     

A null model of community disassembly effects on vector-borne disease risk

Community structure is heterogeneous at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, and this variation has been shown to influence the risk of zoonotic diseases such as West Nile Virus and Lyme disease. Theoretical models and most empirical evidence suggest that the greatest influence of host diversity occurs when transmission is frequency-dependent (i.e., the rate of contact is constant). These theoretical models are generally based on ordinary differential equations and become intractable when considering more than a few species. This makes it particularly difficult to predict how we might expect the transmission of infectious diseases to change as community structure changes in space or in time. Here we develop a model in which we construct a network of interactions between hosts and vectors to quantify the change in risk under different scenarios of community disassembly. Decreased vector biodiversity always reduced mean risk, while a change in host community structure led to increased or decreased mean risk depending on the manner in which community disassembly altered mean competence of the “new” community. These trends in mean risk can be generalized across a multitude of natural systems because they do not depend on the distribution of host quality, though simulation suggests that variation around the mean can be very high. The primary value of model is that it can be used to establish upper and lower bounds on the expected change in disease risk with decreasing biodiversity.     

Host-attacking behavior of a eulophid parasite,Kratochviliana sp., to the leaf mining host,Phytomyza ranunculi (Diptera: Agromyzidae) during its stay on the leaf

The present paper studies how the female parasite of Kratochviliana sp. visits and attacks its host larvae of Ranunculus leaf mining fly, P. ranunculi at a single leaf visit. The parasite visited its hosts at random on the leaf. The frequency of host visits was independent of the host density and the proportion of hosts survived from the parasite attack, in a leaf and its distribution was expressed as a single straight line. It almost always attacked living hosts at the first host visit after isolated from them for one day but with the rate of about 0.5 at the subsequent visits. In consequence, the relationships of the number of host attacks and killed hosts to the host density drew satulated curves in each. A model of host attack by this parasite at its single leaf visit was formulated by modifyingBakker et al.'s model (1972) basing upon these observations and the attack avoidance by the parasite to already attacked hosts previously reported.     

Scale-dependent responses in cabbage herbivores affect attack rates in spatially heterogeneous systems

Herbivorous insects face a dilemma when selecting suitable hosts in a complex environment, and their sensory capability may often reduce the female capacity for proper selection. As a consequence, eggs are often deposited on inferior hosts, affecting both insect and host plant fitness. We examined the attack rates of three cabbage herbivores in monocultures and biculture plots of different Brassica oleracea genotypes, with different spatial heterogeneity. The main goals of the study were to improve our understanding of the spatial scales involved in herbivore search processes and to examine the possibility of using spatial heterogeneity for manipulating pest attack rates in cabbage cropping systems. The results showed that the host selection behaviour of the small white butterfly (Pieris rapae) was strongly dependent on spatial heterogeneity. The difference in egg density between plant genotypes was larger when contrasting plants were growing in close proximity than in monoculture. This suggests that P. rapae is able to differentiate among genotypes from a small distance, while selection is compromised at larger spatial scales. The two other herbivores in the study (Mamestra brassicae and Delia radicum) did not respond to heterogeneity at any spatial scale, but showed a constant preference hierarchy. This suggests that host selection in these species occurs after direct plant contact. The difference in species’ responses to spatial heterogeneity has consequences both for selection gradients in natural communities and for the potential to reduce pest attack in polyculture systems.     

Population dynamics of killing parasites which reproduce in the host

For a parasitic infection in human hosts a model is derived from basic assumptions on the population structure of the host, in particular mortality depending on age and parasite load, and on the reproduction and transmission of parasites. The model assumes the form of a system of partial differential equations. The paper contains proofs of local and global existence and existence and uniqueness of nontrivial stationary states, and a discussion of the relation to birth and death processes and other models for parasitic infections.     

Spatial genetic structure of the ectoparasite Ixodes uriae within breeding cliffs of its colonial seabird host

To examine the potential importance of the spatial subdivision of hosts for the functioning of parasite populations, we analysed patterns of local genetic structure within natural populations of the seabird ectoparasite, Ixodes uriae, at the scale of the host breeding cliff. The seabird hosts of this parasite nest in dense colonies with a hierarchical spatial organisation (individual nests-breeding cliffs-colony). Using eight microsatellite markers and samples from three breeding cliffs of the Black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), we found that tick populations were indeed genetically structured at this spatial scale. However, the nature of this structuring depended on the characteristics of the cliffs considered. Both the host nest and cliff topography seemed to be important factors in the isolation of tick groups, but their relative roles may depend on the size of the local parasite population. We found no evidence of isolation by distance within a cliff suggesting that independent tick dispersal may not be a significant force influencing population structure in highly infested cliffs. However, genetic structure seemed to decrease with tick life stage, nymphal ticks being more strongly structured than adult ticks. These results may be related to the clustering of tick progeny combined with differential mortality and dispersal probabilities of each life stage. Overall, results indicate that the spatial organisation of hosts can indeed have important consequences for the population genetic structure of their parasites and, thus, may modify parasite dynamics and the scale at which local coevolutionary processes occur.