Modes of speciation and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity has generated much debate over the need for niches to explain biodiversity patterns. Discussion of the theory has focused on its neutrality assumption, i.e. the functional equivalence of species in competition and dispersal. Almost no attention has been paid to another critical aspect of the theory, the assumptions on the nature of the speciation process. In the standard version of the neutral theory each individual has a fixed probability to speciate. Hence, the speciation rate of a species is directly proportional to its abundance in the metacommunity. We argue that this assumption is not realistic for most speciation modes because speciation is an emergent property of complex processes at larger spatial and temporal scales and, consequently, speciation rate can either increase or decrease with abundance. Accordingly, the assumption that speciation rate is independent of abundance (each species has a fixed probability to speciate) is a more natural starting point in a neutral theory of biodiversity. Here we present a neutral model based on this assumption and we confront this new model to 20 large data sets of tree communities, expecting the new model to fit the data better than Hubbell's original model. We find, however, that the data sets are much better fitted by Hubbell's original model. This implies that species abundance data can discriminate between different modes of speciation, or, stated otherwise, that the mode of speciation has a large impact on the species abundance distribution. Our model analysis points out new ways to study how biodiversity patterns are shaped by the interplay between evolutionary processes (speciation, extinction) and ecological processes (competition, dispersal).     

The role of evolutionary processes in producing biodiversity patterns, and the interrelationships between taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic biodiversity

Patterns of biodiversity are ultimately the product of speciation and extinction. Speciation serves as the biodiversity pump while extinction serves as the agent that culls global to local levels of biodiversity. Linking these central processes to global and local patterns of biodiversity is a key challenge in both ecology and evolution. This challenge necessarily requires a simultaneous consideration of the species, phylogenetic, and functional diversity across space and the tree of life. In this review, I outline a research framework for biodiversity science that considers the evolutionary and ecological processes that generate and cull levels of biodiversity and that influence the inter-relationships between species, phylogenetic, and functional diversity. I argue that a biodiversity synthesis must begin with a consideration of the inherently ecological process of speciation and end with how global biodiversity is filtered into local-scale plant communities. The review ends with a brief outlook on future challenges for those studying biodiversity, including outstanding hypotheses that need testing and key data limitations.     

Identifying biases at different spatial and temporal scales of diversification: a case study in the Neotropical parrotlet genus Forpus

The temporal origins of the extraordinary biodiversity of the Neotropical region are highly debated. Recent empirical work has found support for alternative models on the tempo of speciation in Neotropical species further fuelling the debate. However, relationships within many Neotropical lineages are poorly understood, and it is unclear how this uncertainty impacts inferences on the evolution of taxa in the region. We examined the robustness of diversification patterns in the avian genus Forpus by testing whether the use of different units of biodiversity (i.e. biological species and statistically inferred species) impacted diversification rates and inferences regarding important biogeographic breaks in the genus. We found that the best‐fit model of diversification for the biological species data set was a declining rate of diversification; whereas a model of constant diversification was the best‐fit model for statistically inferred species or subspecies. Moreover, the relative importance of different landscape features in delimiting genetic structure across the landscape varied across data sets with differing units of biodiversity. Patterns based on divergence times among biological species indicated old speciation events across major geographic and river barriers. In contrast, data sets more inclusive of the diversity in Forpus illustrate the role of both old divergence across major landscape features and more recent divergences that are possibly attributed to Pleistocene climatic changes. Overall, these results indicate that conflicting models on the temporal origins of Neotropical birds may be attributable to sampling biases.     

Phylogenetic fields through time: temporal dynamics of geographical co-occurrence and phylogenetic structure within species ranges

Species co-occur with different sets of other species across their geographical distribution, which can be either closely or distantly related. Such co-occurrence patterns and their phylogenetic structure within individual species ranges represent what we call the species phylogenetic fields (PFs). These PFs allow investigation of the role of historical processes—speciation, extinction and dispersal—in shaping species co-occurrence patterns, in both extinct and extant species. Here, we investigate PFs of large mammalian species during the last 3 Myr, and how these correlate with trends in diversification rates. Using the fossil record, we evaluate species'' distributional and co-occurrence patterns along with their phylogenetic structure. We apply a novel Bayesian framework on fossil occurrences to estimate diversification rates through time. Our findings highlight the effect of evolutionary processes and past climatic changes on species'' distributions and co-occurrences. From the Late Pliocene to the Recent, mammal species seem to have responded in an individualistic manner to climate changes and diversification dynamics, co-occurring with different sets of species from different lineages across their geographical ranges. These findings stress the difficulty of forecasting potential effects of future climate changes on biodiversity.     

Why Do Tropical Mountains Support Exceptionally High Biodiversity? The Eastern Arc Mountains and the Drivers of Saintpaulia Diversity

We combine information about the evolutionary history and distributional patterns of the genus Saintpaulia H. Wendl. (Gesneriaceae; ‘African violets’) to elucidate the factors and processes behind the accumulation of species in tropical montane areas of high biodiversity concentration. We find that high levels of biodiversity in the Eastern Arc Mountains are the result of pre-Quaternary speciation processes and environmental stability. Our results support the hypothesis that climatically stable mountaintops may have acted as climatic refugia for lowland lineages during the Pleistocene by preventing extinctions. In addition, we found evidence for the existence of lowland micro-refugia during the Pleistocene, which may explain the high species diversity of East African coastal forests. We discuss the conservation implications of the results in the context of future climate change.     

The carrying capacity for species richness

The idea that the number of species within an area is limited by a specific capacity of that area to host species is old yet controversial. Here, we show that the concept of carrying capacity for species richness can be as useful as the analogous concept in population biology. Many lines of empirical evidence indicate the existence of limits of species richness, at least at large spatial and phylogenetic scales. However, available evidence does not support the idea of diversity limits based on limited niche space; instead, carrying capacity should be understood as a stable equilibrium of biodiversity dynamics driven by diversity‐dependent processes of extinction, speciation and/or colonization. We argue that such stable equilibria exist even if not all resources are used and if increasing species richness increases the ability of a community to use resources. Evaluating the various theoretical approaches to modelling diversity dynamics, we conclude that a fruitful approach for macroecology and biodiversity science is to develop theory that assumes that the key mechanism leading to stable diversity equilibria is the negative diversity dependence of per‐species extinction rates, driven by the fact that population sizes of species must decrease with an increasing number of species owing to limited energy availability. The recently proposed equilibrium theory of biodiversity dynamics is an example of such a theory, which predicts that equilibrium species richness (i.e., carrying capacity) is determined by the interplay of the total amount of available resources, the ability of communities to use those resources, environmental stability that affects extinction rates, and the factors that affect speciation and colonization rates. We argue that the diversity equilibria resulting from these biodiversity dynamics are first‐order drivers of large‐scale biodiversity patterns, such as the latitudinal diversity gradient.     

Cryptic speciation in the Acari: a function of species lifestyles or our ability to separate species?

There are approximately 55,000 described Acari species, accounting for almost half of all known Arachnida species, but total estimated Acari diversity is reckoned to be far greater. One important source of currently hidden Acari diversity is cryptic speciation, which poses challenges to taxonomists documenting biodiversity assessment as well as to researchers in medicine and agriculture. In this review, we revisit the subject of biodiversity in the Acari and investigate what is currently known about cryptic species within this group. Based on a thorough literature search, we show that the probability of occurrence of cryptic species is mainly related to the number of attempts made to detect them. The use of, both, DNA tools and bioassays significantly increased the probability of cryptic species detection. We did not confirm the generally-accepted idea that species lifestyle (i.e. free-living vs. symbiotic) affects the number of cryptic species. To increase detection of cryptic lineages and to understand the processes leading to cryptic speciation in Acari, integrative approaches including multivariate morphometrics, molecular tools, crossing, ecological assays, intensive sampling, and experimental evolution are recommended. We conclude that there is a demonstrable need for future investigations focusing on potentially hidden mite and tick species and addressing evolutionary mechanisms behind cryptic speciation within Acari.     

Patterns of genetic differentiation and population history of endemic isopods (Asellidae) from ancient Lake Ohrid: combining allozyme and mtDNA data

Ancient lakes as places of extensive speciation processes have been characterized by a high degree of endemicity and biodiversity. The most outstanding European ancient lake is the oligotrophic and karstic Balkan Lake Ohrid. The lake is inhabited by a number of endemic species, but their evolutionary history is largely unresolved. in the present study, the genetic structure, gene genealogy and demographic history of the representatives of the Ohridian endemic Proasellus species were studied using both biparentally (allozyme loci) and maternally (partial mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene) inherited markers. Both data sets gave similar results and supported discrepancies among genetic differentiation, the current morphology-based taxonomy and bathymetric segregation. Horizontal distribution of endemic Proasellus species (Lake Ohrid vs adjacent feeder springs) within the lake presumably promote parapatric speciation whereas the main role of vertical barriers into diversification processes was not fully supported. The analyses of demographic history suggested the decline of endemic isopod populations. The radiation of endemic Proasellus populations within the lake could have started from the sublittoral/profundal zone towards the littoral or in the opposite direction — from the littoral to the profundal. Our analyses did not exclude both possibilities.     

Setting the absolute tempo of biodiversity dynamics

Neutral biodiversity theory has the potential to contribute to our understanding of how macroevolutionary dynamics influence contemporary biodiversity, but there are issues regarding its dynamical predictions that must first be resolved. Here we address these issues by extending the theory in two ways using a novel analytical approach: (1) we set the absolute tempo of biodiversity dynamics by explicitly incorporating population-level stochasticity in abundance; (2) we allow new species to arise with more than one individual. Setting the absolute tempo yields quantitative predictions on biodiversity dynamics that can be tested using contemporary and fossil data. Allowing incipient-species abundances greater than one individual yields predictions on how these dynamics, and the form of the species-abundance distribution, are affected by multiple speciation modes. We apply this new model to contemporary and fossil data that encompass 30 Myr of macroevolution for planktonic foraminifera. By synthesizing the model with these empirical data, we present evidence that dynamical issues with neutral biodiversity theory may be resolved by incorporating the effects of environmental stochasticity and incipient-species abundance on biodiversity dynamics.     

ESTIMATING SPECIATION AND EXTINCTION RATES FROM DIVERSITY DATA AND THE FOSSIL RECORD

Understanding the processes that underlie biodiversity requires insight into the evolutionary history of the taxa involved. Accurate estimation of speciation, extinction, and diversification rates is a prerequisite for gaining this insight. Here, we develop a stochastic birth–death model of speciation and extinction that predicts the probability distribution of both extinct and extant numbers of species in a clade. We present two estimation methods based on this model given data on the number of extinct species (from the fossil record) and extant species (from diversity assessments): a multivariate method of moments approach and a maximum-likelihood approach. We show that, except for some special cases, the two estimation methods produce very similar estimates. This is convenient, because the usually preferred maximum-likelihood approach is much more computationally demanding, so the method of moments can serve as a proxy. Furthermore, we introduce a correction for possible bias that can arise by the mere fact that we will normally only consider extant clades. We find that in some cases the bias correction affects the estimates profoundly. Finally, we show how our model can be extended to incorporate incomplete preservation. Preservation rates can, however, not be reliably estimated on the basis of numbers of extant and extinct species alone.     

Both temperature fluctuations and East Asian monsoons have driven plant diversification in the karst ecosystems from southern China

Karst ecosystems in southern China are species‐rich and have high levels of endemism, yet little is known regarding the evolutionary processes responsible for the origin and diversification of karst biodiversity. The genus Primulina (Gesneriaceae) comprises ca. 170 species endemic to southern China with high levels of ecological (edaphic) specialization, providing an exceptional model to study the plant diversification in karsts. We used molecular data from nine chloroplast and 11 nuclear regions and macroevolutionary analyses to assess the origin and cause of species diversification due to palaeoenvironmental changes and edaphic specialization in Primulina. We found that speciation was positively associated with changes in past temperatures and East Asian monsoons through the evolutionary history of Primulina. Climatic change around the mid‐Miocene triggered an early burst followed by a slowdown of diversification rate towards the present with the climate cooling. We detected different speciation rates among edaphic types, and transitions among soil types were infrequently and did not impact the overall speciation rate. Our findings suggest that both global temperature changes and East Asian monsoons have played crucial roles in floristic diversification within the karst ecosystems in southern China, such that speciation was higher when climate was warmer and wetter. This is the first study to directly demonstrate that past monsoon activity is positively correlated with speciation rate in East Asia. This case study could motivate further investigations to assess the impacts of past environmental changes on the origin and diversification of biodiversity in global karst ecosystems, most of which are under threat.     

Biodiversity loss through speciation collapse: Mechanisms,warning signals,and possible rescue*

Speciation is the process that generates biodiversity, but recent empirical findings show that it can also fail, leading to the collapse of two incipient species into one. Here, we elucidate the mechanisms behind speciation collapse using a stochastic individual‐based model with explicit genetics. We investigate the impact of two types of environmental disturbance: deteriorated visual conditions, which reduce foraging ability and impede mate choice, and environmental homogenization, which restructures ecological niches. We find that: (1) Species pairs can collapse into a variety of forms including new species pairs, monomorphic or polymorphic generalists, or single specialists. Notably, polymorphic generalist forms may be a transient stage to a monomorphic population; (2) Environmental restoration enables species pairs to reemerge from single generalist forms, but not from single specialist forms; (3) Speciation collapse is up to four orders of magnitude faster than speciation, while the reemergence of species pairs can be as slow as de novo speciation; (4) Although speciation collapse can be predicted from either demographic, phenotypic, or genetic signals, observations of phenotypic changes allow the most general and robust warning signal of speciation collapse. We conclude that factors altering ecological niches can reduce biodiversity by reshaping the ecosystem's evolutionary attractors.     

Natural fragmentation in river networks as a driver of speciation for freshwater fishes

Although habitat fragmentation fosters extinctions, it also increases the probability of speciation by promoting and maintaining divergence among isolated populations. Here we test for the effects of two isolation factors that may reduce population dispersal within river networks as potential drivers of freshwater fish speciation: 1) the position of subdrainages along the longitudinal river gradient, and 2) the level of fragmentation within subdrainages caused by natural waterfalls. The occurrence of native freshwater fish species from 26 subdrainages of the Orinoco drainage basin (South America) was used to identify those species that presumably arose from in‐situ cladogenetic speciation (i.e. neo‐endemic species; two or more endemic species from the same genus) within each subdrainage. We related subdrainages fish diversity (i.e. total, endemic and neo‐endemic species richness) and an index of speciation to our two isolation factors while controlling for subdrainages size and energy availability. The longitudinal position of subdrainages was unrelated to any of our diversity measures, a result potentially explained by the spatial grain we used and/or the contemporary connection between Orinoco and Amazon basins via the upstream Casiquiare region. However, we found higher neo‐endemic species richness and higher speciation index values in highly fragmented subdrainages. These results suggest that habitat fragmentation generated by natural waterfalls drives cladogenetic speciation in fragmented subdrainages. More generally, our results emphasize the role of history and natural waterfalls as biogeographic barriers promoting freshwater biodiversity in river drainage basins.     

Untangling the evolutionary history of a highly polymorphic species: introgressive hybridization and high genetic structure in the desert cichlid fish Herichtys minckleyi

Understanding the origin of biodiversity requires knowledge on the evolutionary processes that drive divergence and speciation, as well as on the processes constraining it. Intraspecific polymorphisms can provide insight into the mechanisms that generate and maintain phenotypic, behavioural and life history diversification, and can help us understand not only the processes that lead to speciation but also the processes that prevent local fixation of morphs. The ‘desert cichlid’ Herichtys minckleyi is a highly polymorphic species endemic to a biodiversity hotspot in northern Mexico, the Cuatro Ciénegas valley. This species is polymorphic in body shape and trophic apparatus, and eco‐morphotypes coexist in small spring‐fed lagoons across the valley. We investigated the genetic structure of these polymorphisms and their phylogeographic history by analysing the entire control region of the mitochondrial DNA and 10 nuclear microsatellite markers in several populations from different sites and morphs. We found two very divergent mitochondrial lineages that most likely predate the closing of the valley and are not associated with morphotypes or sites. One of these lineages is also found in the sister species Herichthys cyanoguttatus. Data from neutral microsatellite markers suggest that most lagoons or drainages constitute their own genetic cluster with sympatric eco‐morphotypes forming panmictic populations. Alternative mechanisms such as phenotypic plasticity and a few loci controlled traits provide possible explanations for the sympatric coexistence of discrete nonoverlapping eco‐morphotypes with apparent lack of barriers to gene flow within multiple lagoons and drainages.     

Cryptic species as a window into the paradigm shift of the species concept

The species concept is the cornerstone of biodiversity science, and any paradigm shift in the delimitation of species affects many research fields. Many biologists now are embracing a new “species” paradigm as separately evolving populations using different delimitation criteria. Individual criteria can emerge during different periods of speciation; some may never evolve. As such, a paradigm shift in the species concept relates to this inherent heterogeneity in the speciation process and species category—which is fundamentally overlooked in biodiversity research. Cryptic species fall within this paradigm shift: they are continuously being reported from diverse animal phyla but are poorly considered in current tests of ecological and evolutionary theory. The aim of this review is to integrate cryptic species in biodiversity science. In the first section, we address that the absence of morphological diversification is an evolutionary phenomenon, a “process” counterpart to the long‐studied mechanisms of morphological diversification. In the next section regarding taxonomy, we show that molecular delimitation of cryptic species is heavily biased towards distance‐based methods. We also stress the importance of formally naming of cryptic species for better integration into research fields that use species as units of analysis. Finally, we show that incorporating cryptic species leads to novel insights regarding biodiversity patterns and processes, including large‐scale biodiversity assessments, geographic variation in species distribution and species coexistence. It is time for incorporating multicriteria species approaches aiming to understand speciation across space and taxa, thus allowing integration into biodiversity conservation while accommodating for species uncertainty.     

The genomics of speciation-with-gene-flow

The emerging field of speciation genomics is advancing our understanding of the evolution of reproductive isolation from the individual gene to a whole-genome perspective. In this new view it is important to understand the conditions under which 'divergence hitchhiking' associated with the physical linkage of gene regions, versus 'genome hitchhiking' associated with reductions in genome-wide rates of gene flow caused by selection, can enhance speciation-with-gene-flow. We describe here a theory predicting four phases of speciation, defined by changes in the relative effectiveness of divergence and genome hitchhiking, and review empirical data in light of the theory. We outline future directions, emphasizing the need to couple next-generation sequencing with selection, transplant, functional genomics, and mapping studies. This will permit a natural history of speciation genomics that will help to elucidate the factors responsible for population divergence and the roles that genome structure and different forms of hitchhiking play in facilitating the genesis of new biodiversity.     

Diverse staghorn corals (Acropora) in high-latitude Eocene assemblages: implications for the evolution of modern diversity patterns of reef corals

Acropora is the most diverse genus of reef-building corals in the world today. It occurs in all three major oceans; it is restricted to latitudes 31 degrees N-31 degrees S, where most coral reefs occur, and reaches greatest diversity in the central Indo-Pacific. As an exemplar genus, the long-term history of Acropora has implications for the evolution and origins of present day biodiversity patterns of reef corals and for predicting their response to future climate change. Diversification of Acropora was thought to have occurred in the central Indo-Pacific within the previous two million years. We examined Eocene fossils from southern England and northern France and found evidence that precursors of up to nine of 20 currently recognized Acropora species groups existed 49-34 Myr, at palaeolatitudes far higher than current limits, to 51 degrees N. We propose that pre-existing diversity contributed to later rapid speciation in this important functional group of corals.     

Can Environment Predict Cryptic Diversity? The Case of Niphargus Inhabiting Western Carpathian Groundwater

In the last decade, several studies have shown that subterranean aquatic habitats harbor cryptic species with restricted geographic ranges, frequently occurring as isolated populations. Previous studies on aquatic subterranean species have implied that habitat heterogeneity can promote speciation and that speciation events can be predicted from species’ distributions. We tested the prediction that species distributed across different drainage systems and karst sectors comprise sets of distinct species. Amphipods from the genus Niphargus from 11 caves distributed along the Western Carpathians (Romania) were investigated using three independent molecular markers (COI, H3 and 28S). The results showed that: 1) the studied populations belong to eight different species that derive from two phylogenetically unrelated Niphargus clades; 2) narrow endemic species in fact comprise complexes of morphologically similar species that are indistinguishable without using a molecular approach. The concept of monophyly, concordance between mitochondrial and nuclear DNA, and the value of patristic distances were used as species delimitation criteria. The concept of cryptic species is discussed within the framework of the present work and the contribution of these species to regional biodiversity is also addressed.     

Are restricted species checklists or ant communities useful for assessing plant community composition and biodiversity in grazed pastures?

Semi-natural grasslands in Sweden are species-rich, and their natural values are strongly dependent on continuous management, mainly by grazing. However, the large heterogeneity in vegetation within and between grassland sites must be taken into account when designing management and preservation schemes, calling for precise field monitoring and assessment of habitat type and land use history. We have evaluated different surrogate measures to assess community composition and biodiversity of the most common vegetation types in grazed semi-natural pastures. We compared the complete plant community, two reduced checklists intended for quick surveys of the plant community, and the ant community. The results suggest that the taxonomic resolution in a plant inventory is important for both biodiversity assessment and recognition of vegetation types. The extent of a reduced species checklist was of greater importance than its quality for describing the plant community. Reduced checklists should only be used if they comprise species with known affinity to the studied vegetation types. We also found that plants and ants experience grazed semi-natural grasslands in different ways. Ant communities did not resemble the communities deduced from plant inventories, or vegetation types recognised by field staff.     

Quantified reproductive isolation in Heliconius butterflies: Implications for introgression and hybrid speciation

Heliconius butterflies have become a model for the study of speciation with gene flow. For adaptive introgression to take place, there must be incomplete barriers to gene exchange that allow interspecific hybridization and multiple generations of backcrossing. The recent publication of estimates of individual components of reproductive isolation between several species of butterflies in the Heliconius melpomene–H. cydno clade allowed us to calculate total reproductive isolation estimates for these species. According to these estimates, the butterflies are not as promiscuous as has been implied. Differences between species are maintained by intrinsic mechanisms, while reproductive isolation of geographical races within species is mainly due to allopatry. We discuss the implications of this strong isolation for basic aspects of the hybrid speciation with introgression hypothesis.