Species turnover of amphibians and reptiles in eastern China: disentangling the relative effects of geographic distance and environmental difference

Spatial turnover of species lies at the heart of macroecology and conservation biogeography. However, our knowledge of the causes of species turnover remains poor, particularly for herpetofaunas including amphibians and reptiles. Here, using regression, variance partitioning, and hierarchical partitioning analyses, we examine the relationships of species turnover in herpetofaunas among provinces in eastern China with respect to geographic distance and environmental difference. We found that species turnover in herpetofaunas is moderately to strongly correlated with geographic distance and difference in most environmental variables examined between provinces. Geographic distance and environmental difference together explain 87.1 and 89.9% of the variance of species turnover for amphibians and reptiles, respectively. Variance partitioning analysis indicated that most variance in species turnover is explained by the joint effect of geographic distance and environmental difference. Beyond this shared variance, environmental difference is a stronger predictor of species turnover than geographic distance, particularly for reptiles. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that energy-related variables explained more variance in species turnover for both amphibians and reptiles, compared with water-related variables. The independent effects of water-related variables are slightly higher for amphibians than for reptiles whereas the independent effects of energy-related variables are slightly higher for reptiles than amphibians. These patterns are consistent with different ecophysiological requirements of the two taxa. Our results have important implications for predicting changes in biodiversity of herpetofaunas under climate change scenarios. Global warming will affect the immigration and local extinction of both amphibians and reptiles, and precipitation change may affect amphibians more strongly, compared with its effect on reptiles.     

Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in a Rapidly Transforming Landscape in Northern Borneo

Because industrial agriculture keeps expanding in Southeast Asia at the expense of natural forests and traditional swidden systems, comparing biodiversity and ecosystem services in the traditional forest–swidden agriculture system vs. monocultures is needed to guide decision making on land-use planning. Focusing on tree diversity, soil erosion control, and climate change mitigation through carbon storage, we surveyed vegetation and monitored soil loss in various land-use areas in a northern Bornean agricultural landscape shaped by swidden agriculture, rubber tapping, and logging, where various levels and types of disturbance have created a fine mosaic of vegetation from food crop fields to natural forest. Tree species diversity and ecosystem service production were highest in natural forests. Logged-over forests produced services similar to those of natural forests. Land uses related to the swidden agriculture system largely outperformed oil palm or rubber monocultures in terms of tree species diversity and service production. Natural and logged-over forests should be maintained or managed as integral parts of the swidden system, and landscape multifunctionality should be sustained. Because natural forests host a unique diversity of trees and produce high levels of ecosystem services, targeting carbon stock protection, e.g. through financial mechanisms such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+), will synergistically provide benefits for biodiversity and a wide range of other services. However, the way such mechanisms could benefit communities must be carefully evaluated to counter the high opportunity cost of conversion to monocultures that might generate greater income, but would be detrimental to the production of multiple ecosystem services.     

Provision of aquatic ecosystem services as a consequence of societal changes: The case of the Baltic Sea

Aquatic ecosystem services are important for human wellbeing, but they are much less studied than terrestrial ecosystem services. The objectives of this study are to broaden, itemize and exemplify the human-nature interactions in modeling the future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. We include shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, used extensively in climate research, as drivers of change for the future development of the Baltic Sea. Then we use biogeochemical and ecosystem models to demonstrate the future development of exemplary supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services for two distinct combinations of regionally downscaled global climate and socioeconomic futures. According to the model simulations, the two global futures (“Sustainable well-being” vs. “Fossil-fuelled development”) studied lead to clearly deviating trajectories in the provision of marine ecosystem services. Under the “Sustainable well-being”-scenario primary production decreases by 20%, catches of demersal fish increases and the recreation opportunities increase significantly by the end of the ongoing century. Under the “fossil-fuelled development”-scenario primary production doubles, fisheries focus on less valued pelagic fish and the recreation possibilities will decrease. Long-term projections of aquatic ecosystem services prepared for alternative global socioeconomic futures can be used by policy makers and managers to adaptively and iteratively adjust mitigation and adaptation effort with plausible future changes in the drivers of water pollution.     

Land‐use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R² = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century.     

Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services

Climate change is real. The wrangling debates are over, and we now need to move onto a predictive ecology that will allow managers of landscapes and policy makers to adapt to the likely changes in biodiversity over the coming decades. There is ample evidence that ecological responses are already occurring at the individual species (population) level. The challenge is how to synthesize the growing list of such observations with a coherent body of theory that will enable us to predict where and when changes will occur, what the consequences might be for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and what we might do practically in order to maintain those systems in as good condition as possible. It is thus necessary to investigate the effects of climate change at the ecosystem level and to consider novel emergent ecosystems composed of new species assemblages arising from differential rates of range shifts of species. Here, we present current knowledge on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services supply, and summarize the papers included in this volume. We discuss how resilient ecosystems are in the face of the multiple components that characterize climate change, and suggest which current ecological theories may be used as a starting point to predict ecosystem-level effects of climate change.     

Evaluation of global warming impacts on the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems in monsoon Asia: a multi-model analysis

This study assesses the potential impacts of future global warming on the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems across monsoon Asia using the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) dataset. We used simulation results of two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), climate projections of five climate models, and seven terrestrial biome models to analyze the changes in net primary production and carbon stocks in the South, Southeast, and East Asian subregions during the period 1981–2099. The simulations indicated that by the end of the 21st century, net primary production would increase by 9–45 % and ecosystem carbon storage would increase by 42–86 Pg C. The clearest climatic impacts were found when using the adaptation-oriented emission scenario (RCP8.5), which assumes a greater CO₂ increase and a larger change in climatic conditions. Substantial disparities in temporal trajectories and spatial patterns were found in the estimated changes, owing to the uncertainties in the emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem models. We attempted to derive consistent patterns throughout the simulations to specify potential hotspots of climatic impacts (e.g., soil carbon change in the southern Tibetan Plateau). Finally, we discuss changes to the climatic characteristics in the study region (e.g., a change in the rainy season), the implications for ecosystem services, and the need for collaborative field monitoring studies.     

Tree planting in organic soils does not result in net carbon sequestration on decadal timescales

Tree planting is increasingly being proposed as a strategy to combat climate change through carbon (C) sequestration in tree biomass. However, total ecosystem C storage that includes soil organic C (SOC) must be considered to determine whether planting trees for climate change mitigation results in increased C storage. We show that planting two native tree species (Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris), of widespread Eurasian distribution, onto heather (Calluna vulgaris) moorland with podzolic and peaty podzolic soils in Scotland, did not lead to an increase in net ecosystem C stock 12 or 39 years after planting. Plots with trees had greater soil respiration and lower SOC in organic soil horizons than heather control plots. The decline in SOC cancelled out the increment in C stocks in tree biomass on decadal timescales. At all four experimental sites sampled, there was no net gain in ecosystem C stocks 12–39 years after afforestation—indeed we found a net ecosystem C loss in one of four sites with deciduous B. pubescens stands; no net gain in ecosystem C at three sites planted with B. pubescens; and no net gain at additional stands of P. sylvestris. We hypothesize that altered mycorrhizal communities and autotrophic C inputs have led to positive ‘priming’ of soil organic matter, resulting in SOC loss, constraining the benefits of tree planting for ecosystem C sequestration. The results are of direct relevance to current policies, which promote tree planting on the assumption that this will increase net ecosystem C storage and contribute to climate change mitigation. Ecosystem‐level biogeochemistry and C fluxes must be better quantified and understood before we can be assured that large‐scale tree planting in regions with considerable pre‐existing SOC stocks will have the intended policy and climate change mitigation outcomes.     

Invertebrates,ecosystem services and climate change

The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate‐mediated services under a changing climate.     

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services--flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban 'sprawl' will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the 'densification' urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization.     

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil‐mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study

Future human well‐being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land‐based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil‐based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in‐depth understanding of the likely response of soil‐based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient‐related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well‐being.     

Using the ecosystem services approach for better planning and conservation of urban green spaces: a Finland case study

Ecosystem services are vital for humans in urban regions. However, urban development poses a great risk for the ability of ecosystems to provide these services. In this paper we first address the most important ecosystem services in functional urban regions in Finland. Well accessible and good quality recreational ecosystem services, for example, provided by urban nature, are an important part of a high-quality living environment and important for public health. Vegetation of urban regions can have a role in carbon dioxide sequestration and thus in climate change mitigation. For instance, estimates of carbon sinks can be compared to total CO₂ emissions of an urban region, and the municipality can aim at both increasing carbon sinks and decreasing CO₂ emissions with proper land-use planning. Large and contiguous core nature areas, smaller green areas and ecological connections between them are the essence of regional ecological networks and are essential for maintaining interconnected habitats for species and thus biological diversity. Thus, both local and regional level ecological networks are vital for maintaining ecosystem services in urban regions. The impacts of climate change coupled with land-use and land cover change will bring serious challenges for maintaining ecosystem services in urban areas. Although not yet widely used in planning practices, the ecosystem services approach can provide an opportunity for land-use planning to develop ecologically sustainable urban regions. Currently, information on ecosystem services of urban regions is lacking and there is a need to improve the knowledge base for land-use planning.     

Unraveling the drivers of intensifying forest disturbance regimes in Europe

Natural disturbances like wildfire, windthrow and insect outbreaks are critical drivers of composition, structure and functioning of forest ecosystems. They are strongly climate‐sensitive, and are thus likely to be distinctly affected by climatic changes. Observations across Europe show that in recent decades, forest disturbance regimes have intensified markedly, resulting in a strong increase in damage from wind, bark beetles and wildfires. Climate change is frequently hypothesized as the main driving force behind this intensification, but changes in forest structure and composition associated with management activities such as promoting conifers and increasing standing timber volume (i.e. ‘forest change’) also strongly influence susceptibility to disturbances. Here, we show that from 1958 to 2001, forest change contributed in the same order of magnitude as climate change to the increase in disturbance damage in Europe's forests. Climate change was the main driver of the increase in area burnt, while changes in forest extent, structure and composition particularly affected the variation in wind and bark beetle damage. For all three disturbance agents, damage was most severe when conducive weather conditions and increased forest susceptibility coincided. We conclude that a continuing trend towards more disturbance‐prone conditions is likely for large parts of Europe's forests, and can have strong detrimental effects on forest carbon storage and other ecosystem services. Understanding the interacting drivers of natural disturbance regimes is thus a prerequisite for climate change mitigation and adaptation in forest ecosystem management.     

全球变化格局下重要传粉昆虫大蜜蜂的潜在适生区变化

【目的】当前全球气候变化、土地利用改变、人类活动加剧等正威胁着传粉昆虫的多样性及分布;蜜蜂是生态系统中重要的传粉昆虫类群,对气候、环境变化响应敏感。本研究以重要的传粉昆虫大蜜蜂Apis dorsata为对象,探讨全球变化格局下其潜在适生区变化以及影响其分布的关键因子。【方法】通过文献、馆藏和野外调查系统收集了全球范围内大蜜蜂的物种分布数据,使用13个环境变量通过MaxEnt模型模拟了大蜜蜂当前的潜在适生区;使用9个气候变量并结合公共地球系统模型(CCSM4)模拟了大蜜蜂过去、当前和未来的潜在适生区。【结果】AUC比率显示MaxEnt模型对大蜜蜂的潜在适生区模拟具有较高的准确性,模拟结果表明大蜜蜂的中高潜在适生区主要分布在南亚和东南亚湿润的热带雨林、热带季节性雨林和低地雨林。人类影响、温度季节性变化、等温性、最冷季均温和海拔是影响大蜜蜂潜在适生区的5个最主要因子;在人类影响下大蜜蜂的潜在适生区向山区和连片的湿润常绿森林区收缩,中高潜在适生区显著减少且呈破碎化趋势。基于9个气候变量和CCSM4气候模型对过去、当前和未来的模拟结果显示：在过去的末次冰盛期,东南亚地区可能是大蜜蜂的避难所;在未来,广布于热带地区的大蜜蜂适生区与当前的相近,且部分地区适生指数升高。【结论】基于气候的模拟结果显示大蜜蜂能积极应对未来气候变暖,但随人类活动的加剧及全球气候变化,大蜜蜂仍然面临较大的威胁,需要加强其在南亚和东南亚的中高潜在适生区的重视和保护。     

Step back from the forest and step up to the Bonn Challenge: how a broad ecological perspective can promote successful landscape restoration

We currently face both an extinction and a biome crisis embedded in a changing climate. Many biodiverse ecosystems are being lost at far higher rates than they are being protected or ecologically restored. At the same time, natural climate solutions offer opportunities to restore biodiversity while mitigating climate change. The Bonn Challenge is a U.N. programme to restore biodiversity and mitigate climate change through restoration of the world's degraded landscapes. It provides an unprecedented chance for ecological restoration to become a linchpin tool for addressing many environmental issues. Unfortunately, the Forest and Landscape Restoration programme that underpins the Bonn Challenge, as its name suggests, remains focused on trees and forests, despite rising evidence that many non‐forest ecosystems also offer strong restoration potential for biodiversity and climate mitigation. We see a need for restoration to step back to be more inclusive of different ecosystem types and to step up to provide integrated scientific knowledge to inform large‐scale restoration. Stepping back and up will require assessments of where to restore what species, with recognition that in many landscapes multiple habitat types should be restored. In the process, trade‐offs in the delivery of different ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, biodiversity, water, albedo, livestock forage) should be clearly addressed. We recommend that biodiversity safeguards be included in policy and implemented in practice, to avoid undermining the biophysical relationships that provide ecosystem resilience to climate change. For ecological restoration to contribute to international policy goals will require integrated large‐scale science that works across biome boundaries.     

The significance of tree-tree interactions for forest ecosystem functioning

Global change exposes forest ecosystems to many risks including novel climatic conditions, increased frequency of climatic extremes and sudden emergence and spread of pests and pathogens. At the same time, forest landscape restoration has regained global attention as an integral strategy for climate change mitigation. Owing to unpredictable future risks and the need for new forests that provide multiple ecosystem services, mixed-species forests have been advocated for this purpose. However, the successful establishment of mixed forests requires intrinsic knowledge of biodiversity's role for forest ecosystem functioning. In this respect, a better understanding of tree-tree interactions and how they contribute to observed positive tree species richness effects on key ecosystem functions is critical. Here, we review the current knowledge of the underlying mechanisms of tree-tree interactions and argue that positive net biodiversity effects at the community scale may emerge from the dominance of positive over negative interactions at the local neighbourhood scale. In a second step, we demonstrate how tree-tree interactions and the immediate tree neighbourhood's role can be systematically assessed in a tree diversity experiment. The expected results will improve predictions about the effects of tree interactions on ecosystem functioning based on general principles. We argue that this knowledge is urgently required to guide the design of tree species mixtures for the successful establishment of newly planted forests.     

Projecting impacts of global climate and land‐use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional‐turnover modelling

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine‐resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species–area relationship, to estimate the effect of land‐use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land‐use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio‐economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre‐2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land‐use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7–4.5 times compared to land‐use‐only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land‐use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre‐industrial times is observed.     

Pan-European Ecological Networks

Pan-European Ecological Networks make a major contribution to the overall effort to protect, maintain and enhance biodiversity; the concept has gained significant political support over the last decade and a half. A platform now exists for: increased integration of ecological networks into the cross-sectoral policy agenda; research into their contribution to ecosystem services and mitigation and adaption for climate change; and an increase in the availability of information about practical delivery. This paper provides an overview of recent policy and research developments in Europe.     

从自然保护区到国家公园体制试点: 三江源国家公园环境覆盖的变化及其对两栖爬行类保护的启示

三江源地区具有丰富的高原生物多样性, 是我国重要的生态安全屏障。作为我国第一个体制试点的国家公园, 三江源国家公园将被建成青藏高原大自然保护展示和生态文化传承区。为更好地服务于三江源国家公园建设, 本研究从海拔、年均温和年降水等方面, 在环境空间上系统比较了国家公园与三江源和可可西里自然保护区的差异; 以4种两栖爬行动物即高原林蛙(Rana kukunoris)、倭蛙(Nanorana pleskei)、西藏齿突蟾(Scutiger boulengeri)和青海沙蜥(Phrynocephalus vlangalii)分布点环境条件在国家公园内外的异同为例, 探讨分布受环境制约大、扩散能力弱的物种保护在国家公园建设中可能面临的机遇和挑战。结果表明, 国家公园与已建自然保护区在地理空间上重叠较大, 但它们在自然环境上的差别很明显; 自然保护区内两栖爬行类所偏好的环境条件较多未包含在国家公园内。鉴于三江源的区位特殊性及对气候变化的敏感性, 区域内两栖爬行动物等对环境依赖性强、扩散能力弱物种的有效保护不仅有助于保持物种遗传多样性和区域生态系统的完整性, 也有利于更好地实现国家公园目标定位并服务于生态文明建设。为此, 在国家公园内, 应开展两栖爬行动物种群动态和群落结构的长期监测, 加强基础生物学研究, 掌握环境变化对两栖爬行动物分布、遗传、行为、形态、种群动态及群落可能产生的影响, 实现区域内两栖爬行动物及其类似物种在环境变化下的永续生存。     

Mentawai’s endemic,relictual fauna: is it evidence for Pleistocene extinctions on Sumatra?

Aim The four Mentawai islands, south‐west of Sumatra, have long been isolated from the remainder of Sundaland, resulting in a high level of endemism. We examined the distribution of 151 species of the Mentawai Islands in Sundaland and assessed various processes that may have resulted in the various biogeographical patterns. Location Southeast Asia, particularly the Mentawai Islands and nearby large landmasses (Sumatra, Java, Borneo and Peninsular Malaysia). Methods We compared the faunal composition of the Mentawai Islands for selected taxa (43 mammals, 92 reptiles and 16 amphibians) with that of the four nearby large landmasses of Sundaland using morphological comparisons and the most recent molecular phylogenetic analyses available in the literature. These comparisons yielded sister taxa, which were used to simulate species absence data for the four Sundaland landmasses under several scenarios to investigate how patterns of species absence could have arisen. Results In contrast to our expectations, several Mentawai species did not have their closest relatives on neighbouring Sumatra, but rather on the more distant Borneo, Java or Peninsular Malaysia. For mammals, the similarity between species from Mentawai and Borneo was greater than that observed between species from Mentawai and Sumatra. We conclude that the relationships represent traces of species historically distributed throughout Sundaland that became extinct in Sumatra during the Pleistocene. For reptiles and amphibians the observed pattern of species absences generally resembled the simulated pattern expected under the scenario of absence rates increasing with landmass isolation, whereas for mammals we observed more species than expected missing from Java and Sumatra, and fewer than expected from Borneo. Main conclusions The potential extinctions on Sumatra probably had two causes: changes of climate and vegetation during the Pleistocene and environmental impacts from the Toba supervolcanic eruption.     

A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998–2013 warming slowdown

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, as temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle—above all, their phenology. The timing of herps’ activity or migration period—in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding—and the shift to earlier dates in response to warming since the last quarter of the 20^th century has often been described up to now as a nearly monotonic trend towards earlier phenological events. In this study, we used citizen science data opportunistically collected on reptiles and amphibians in the northern Mediterranean basin over a period of 32 years to explore temporal variations in herp phenology. For 17 common species, we measured shifts in the date of the species’ first spring appearance—which may be the result of current changes in climate—and regressed the first appearance date against temperatures and precipitations. Our results confirmed the expected overall trend towards earlier first spring appearances from 1983 to 1997, and show that the first appearance date of both reptiles and amphibians fits well with the temperature in late winter. However, the trend towards earlier dates was stopped or even reversed in most species between 1998 and 2013. We interpret this reversal as a response to cooling related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the late winter and early spring. During the positive NAO episodes, for certain species only (mainly amphibians), the effect of a warm weather, which tends to advance the phenology, seems to be counterbalanced by the adverse effects of the relative dryness.