Computation of model-dependent tolerance bands for ambulatorily monitored blood pressure

The construction of time-specified reference limits requires systematic sampling in clinical health, particularly for those variables characterized by a circadian rhythm of large amplitude, as it is the case for blood pressure (BP). For the detection of false negatives, tolerance intervals (limits that will include at least a specified proportion of the population with a stated confidence) are important and should substitute when possible for prediction limits. We have previously described a nonparametric method for the computation of model-independent tolerance intervals that are constructed by first dividing the sampling range in several time spans in which no appreciable changes in population characteristics (namely, mean and variance) take place. The tolerance interval is then computed for each of the time spans. The limits thus computed, as well as results of any comparison of a given individual's profile against such tolerance intervals, are highly dependent on the sampling scheme of both the reference individuals and the test subject. To avoid this problem, we have developed an alternative method that allows the computation of model-dependent tolerance bands for hybrid time series. Assuming that a set X of longitudinal series monitored from a given group of reference individuals can be fitted with the same individual model, a population model C(X,t) can be also determined, as well as the deviation S(X,t) of each individual curve from the population model. The tolerance band will then have the form C(X,t) ± kS(X,t), where k is here estimated following a nonparametric approach based on bootstrap techniques. Alternatively, two different values of k can be estimated (for the lower and upper limits of the tolerance interval, respectively) in cases for which we cannot assume symmetry. The method is generally applicable for any population model describing the reference population (including the fit of multiple significant components, nonsinusoidal waveforms, and/or trends). The method was used to establish time-specified tolerance bands for time series of blood pressure monitored automatically in healthy individuals of both genders. Model-dependent intervals are preferred to the model-independent limits when reliance on a specified sampling rate needs to be avoided. These limits may serve for an objective and positive definition of health, for the screening and diagnosis of disease, and for gauging the subject's response to treatment. (Chronobiology International, 17(4), 567-582, 2000)     

The evolutionary significance of the osmotic pressure of the blood

Ohne Zusammenfassung

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The evolutionary significance of the osmotic pressure of the blood

     

Circadian time-qualified tolerance intervals for ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in the diagnosis of hypertension

The large-amplitude circadian pattern in blood pressure of healthy subjects of both genders suggests that the constant threshold currently used to diagnose hypertension should be replaced by a time-specified reference limit reflecting the mostly predictable blood pressure variability during the 24 h. Accordingly, we derived circadian time-specified reference standards for blood pressure as a function of gender. We studied 743 normotensive Caucasian volunteers (400 men and 343 women), 45.7 ± 16.5 (mean ± SD) years of age. Blood pressure was measured by ambulatory monitoring at 20-min intervals during the day and at 30-min intervals at night for 48 consecutive hours. Data from each blood pressure series were synchronized according to the rest-activity cycle of each individual in order to avoid differences among subjects in actual times of daily activity. Data were then used to compute 90% circadian tolerance intervals for each gender separately. The method, derived on the basis of bootstrap techniques, does not need to assume normality or symmetry in the data and, therefore, it is highly appropriate to describe the circadian pattern of blood pressure variability. Results reflect expected changes in the tolerance limits as a function of gender and circadian sampling time, as well as upper blood pressure limits below the thresholds currently used for diagnosing hypertension, especially for women. The use of these time-dependent tolerance limits for the computation of a hyperbaric index as a measure of blood pressure excess has already been shown to provide a reproducible and high-sensitivity test for the diagnosis of hypertension, which can also be used to evaluate treatment efficacy.     

纤毛原生动物研究的经济意义

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