Exponential decontamination models for count data

Several models are developed for the estimation of the rate of exponential die-off from decontamination data. Calculations with illustrative data are reported which indicate that the estimation of this rate and its variance are sensitive to changes in modelling assumptions. Since extrapolation using this estimated rate is used in the specification of planetary quarantine standards, special care should be taken in the selection of an appropriate model and corresponding estimation procedure for the analysis of each set of decontamination data to be used for this purpose.     

Efficient parameter estimation for spatio-temporal models of pattern formation: case study of Drosophila melanogaster

MOTIVATION: Diffusable and non-diffusable gene products play a major role in body plan formation. A quantitative understanding of the spatio-temporal patterns formed in body plan formation, by using simulation models is an important addition to experimental observation. The inverse modelling approach consists of describing the body plan formation by a rule-based model, and fitting the model parameters to real observed data. In body plan formation, the data are usually obtained from fluorescent immunohistochemistry or in situ hybridizations. Inferring model parameters by comparing such data to those from simulation is a major computational bottleneck. An important aspect in this process is the choice of method used for parameter estimation. When no information on parameters is available, parameter estimation is mostly done by means of heuristic algorithms. RESULTS: We show that parameter estimation for pattern formation models can be efficiently performed using an evolution strategy (ES). As a case study we use a quantitative spatio-temporal model of the regulatory network for early development in Drosophila melanogaster. In order to estimate the parameters, the simulated results are compared to a time series of gene products involved in the network obtained with immunohistochemistry. We demonstrate that a (mu,lambda)-ES can be used to find good quality solutions in the parameter estimation. We also show that an ES with multiple populations is 5-140 times as fast as parallel simulated annealing for this case study, and that combining ES with a local search results in an efficient parameter estimation method.     

Microbial production of enzymes: Nonlinear state and kinetic reaction rates estimation

The nonlinearity of the biotechnological processes and the absence of cheap and reliable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and estimation strategies for the state and the kinetic parameters. This work approaches nonlinear estimation strategies for microbial production of enzymes, exemplified by using a process of lipase production from olive oil by Candida rugosa. First, by using a dynamical mathematical model of this process, an asymptotic observer which reconstructs the unavailable state variables is proposed. The design of this kind of observers is based on mass and energy balances without the knowledge of kinetics being necessary; only minimal information concerning the measured concentrations is used. Second, a nonlinear high-gain observer is designed for the estimation of imprecisely known kinetics of the bioprocess. An important advantage of this high-gain estimator is that the tuning is reduced to the calibration of a single parameter. Numerical simulations in various scenarios are provided in order to test the behaviour and performances of the proposed nonlinear estimation strategies.     

Harvest-based Bayesian estimation of sika deer populations using state-space models

We have estimated the number of sika deer, Cervus nippon, in Hokkaido, Japan, with the aim of developing a management program that will reduce the level of agricultural damage caused by these deer. A population index that is defined by the population divided by the population of 1993 is first estimated from the data obtained during a spotlight survey. A generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) with corner point constraints is used in this estimation. We then estimate the population from the index by evaluating the response of index to the known amount of harvest, including hunting. A stage-structured model is used in this harvest-based estimation. It is well-known that estimates of indices suffer from large observation errors when the probability of the observation fluctuates widely; therefore, we apply state-space modeling to the harvest-based estimation to remove the observation errors. We propose the use of Bayesian estimation with uniform prior-distributions as an approximation of the maximum likelihood estimation, without permitting an arbitrary assumption that the parameters fluctuate following prior-distributions. We are able to demonstrate that the harvest-based Bayesian estimation is effective in reducing the observation errors in sika deer populations, but the stage-structured model requires many demographic parameters to be known prior to running the analyses. These parameters cannot be estimated from the observed time-series of the index if there is insufficient data. We then construct a univariate model by simplifying the stage-structured model and show that the simplified model yields estimates that are nearly identical to those obtained from the stage-structured model. This simplification of the model simultaneously clarifies which parameter is important in estimating the population. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Estimating three-dimensional temperature fields during hyperthermia: studies of the optimal regularization parameter and time sampling period

During hyperthermia therapy it is desirable to know the entire temperature field in the treatment region. However, accurately inferring this field from the limited number of temperature measurements available is very difficult, and thus state and parameter estimation methods have been used to attempt to solve this inherently ill-posed problem. To compensate for this ill-posedness and to improve the accuracy of this method, Tikhonov regularization of order zero has been used to significantly improve the results of the estimation procedure. It is also shown that the accuracies of the temperature estimates depend upon the value of the regularization parameter, which has an optimal value that is dependent on the perfusion pattern and magnitude. In addition, the transient power-off time sampling period (i.e., the length of time over which transient data is collected and used) influences the accuracy of the estimates, and an optimal sampling period is shown to exist. The effects of additive measurement noise are also investigated, as are the effects of the initial guess of the perfusion values, and the effects of both symmetric and asymmetric blood perfusion patterns. Random perfusion patterns with noisy data are the most difficult cases to evaluate. The cases studied are not a comprehensive set, but continue to show the feasibility of using state and parameter estimation methods to reconstruct the entire temperature field.     

A classification of bioinformatics algorithms from the viewpoint of maximizing expected accuracy (MEA)

Many estimation problems in bioinformatics are formulated as point estimation problems in a high-dimensional discrete space. In general, it is difficult to design reliable estimators for this type of problem, because the number of possible solutions is immense, which leads to an extremely low probability for every solution-even for the one with the highest probability. Therefore, maximum score and maximum likelihood estimators do not work well in this situation although they are widely employed in a number of applications. Maximizing expected accuracy (MEA) estimation, in which accuracy measures of the target problem and the entire distribution of solutions are considered, is a more successful approach. In this review, we provide an extensive discussion of algorithms and software based on MEA. We describe how a number of algorithms used in previous studies can be classified from the viewpoint of MEA. We believe that this review will be useful not only for users wishing to utilize software to solve the estimation problems appearing in this article, but also for developers wishing to design algorithms on the basis of MEA.     

Estimation of the Youden Index and its associated cutoff point

The Youden Index is a frequently used summary measure of the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve. It both, measures the effectiveness of a diagnostic marker and enables the selection of an optimal threshold value (cutoff point) for the marker. In this paper we compare several estimation procedures for the Youden Index and its associated cutoff point. These are based on (1) normal assumptions; (2) transformations to normality; (3) the empirical distribution function; (4) kernel smoothing. These are compared in terms of bias and root mean square error in a large variety of scenarios by means of an extensive simulation study. We find that the empirical method which is the most commonly used has the overall worst performance. In the estimation of the Youden Index the kernel is generally the best unless the data can be well transformed to achieve normality whereas in estimation of the optimal threshold value results are more variable.     

REML estimation of variance parameters in nonlinear mixed effects models using the SAEM algorithm

Nonlinear mixed effects models are now widely used in biometrical studies, especially in pharmacokinetic research or for the analysis of growth traits for agricultural and laboratory species. Most of these studies, however, are often based on ML estimation procedures, which are known to be biased downwards. A few REML extensions have been proposed, but only for approximated methods. The aim of this paper is to present a REML implementation for nonlinear mixed effects models within an exact estimation scheme, based on an integration of the fixed effects and a stochastic estimation procedure. This method was implemented via a stochastic EM, namely the SAEM algorithm. The simulation study showed that the proposed REML estimation procedure considerably reduced the bias observed with the ML estimation, as well as the residual mean squared error of the variance parameter estimations, especially in the unbalanced cases. ML and REML based estimators of fixed effects were also compared via simulation. Although the two kinds of estimates were very close in terms of bias and mean square error, predictions of individual profiles were clearly improved when using REML vs. ML. An application of this estimation procedure is presented for the modelling of growth in lines of chicken.     

Use of Wishart Prior and Simple Extensions for Sparse Precision Matrix Estimation

A conjugate Wishart prior is used to present a simple and rapid procedure for computing the analytic posterior (mode and uncertainty) of the precision matrix elements of a Gaussian distribution. An interpretation of covariance estimates in terms of eigenvalues is presented, along with a simple decision-rule step to improve the performance of the estimation of sparse precision matrices and associated graphs. In this, elements of the estimated precision matrix that are zero or near zero can be detected and shrunk to zero. Simulated data sets are used to compare posterior estimation with decision-rule with two other Wishart-based approaches and with graphical lasso. Furthermore, an empirical Bayes procedure is used to select prior hyperparameters in high dimensional cases with extension to sparsity.     

Phylogeny reconstruction: increasing the accuracy of pairwise distance estimation using Bayesian inference of evolutionary rates

Distance-based methods for phylogeny reconstruction are the fastest and easiest to use, and their popularity is accordingly high. They are also the only known methods that can cope with huge datasets of thousands of sequences. These methods rely on evolutionary distance estimation and are sensitive to errors in such estimations. In this study, a novel Bayesian method for estimation of evolutionary distances is developed. The proposed method enables the use of a sophisticated evolutionary model that better accounts for among-site rate variation (ASRV), thereby improving the accuracy of distance estimation. Rate variations are estimated within a Bayesian framework by extracting information from the entire dataset of sequences, unlike standard methods that can only use one pair of sequences at a time. We compare the accuracy of a cascade of distance estimation methods, starting from commonly used methods and moving towards the more sophisticated novel method. Simulation studies show significant improvements in the accuracy of distance estimation by the novel method over the commonly used ones. We demonstrate the effect of the improved accuracy on tree reconstruction using both real and simulated protein sequence alignments. An implementation of this method is available as part of the SEMPHY package.     

混合家系遗传参数估计方法研究

针对混合家系遗传参数估计,本文在假定公畜方差组分和母畜方差组分相等这一理论基础上,通过对方差分析的期望均方组成分析,提出了新的遗传力估计方法,以及某些特殊情况下的近似估计方法。通过一个估测实例比较了几种遗传力估计方法,结果表明,本文方法与全同胞组分估计最为接近,而且遗传力标准误最小,本文近似估计方法的效果也较好。对各种方法而言,资料越不平衡其差异越大。本文方法可以在一定程度上弥补全同胞分析时,因实际资料的公母畜方差组分差异过大的缺陷,具有实际可行性。此外,由于本文方法是用单因方差分析解决二因方差分析问题,计算更为简便,并可免于计算混合家系平均亲缘相关系数。     

Experimental design for optimal parameter estimation of an enzyme kinetic process based on the analysis of the Fisher information matrix

The investigation of enzyme kinetics is increasingly important, especially for finding active substances and understanding intracellular behaviors. Therefore, the determination of an enzyme's kinetic parameters is crucial. For this a systematic experimental design procedure is necessary to avoid wasting time and resources. The parameter estimation error of a Michaelis-Menten enzyme kinetic process is analysed analytically to reduce the search area as well as numerically to specify the optimum for parameter estimation. From analytical analysis of the Fisher information matrix the fact is obtained, that an enzyme feed will not improve the estimation process, but substrate feeding is favorable with small volume flow. Unconstrained and constrained process conditions are considered. If substrate fed-batch process design is used instead of pure batch experiments the improvements of the Cramer-Rao lower bound of the variance of parameter estimation error reduces to 82% for mu(max) and to 60% for K(m) of the batch values in average.     

Limited effects of among-lineage rate variation on the phylogenetic performance of molecular markers

Variation in substitution rates among evolutionary lineages (among-lineage rate variation or ALRV) has been reported to negatively affect the estimation of phylogenies. When the substitution processes underlying ALRV are modeled inadequately, non-sister taxa with similar substitution rates are estimated incorrectly as sister species due to long-branch attraction. Recent advances in modeling site-specific rate variation (heterotachy) have reduced the impacts of ALRV on phylogeny estimation in several empirical and simulated datasets. However, the addition of parameters to the substitution model reduces power to estimate each parameter correctly, which can also lead to incorrect phylogeny estimation. A potential solution to this problem is to identify the levels of ALRV that negatively impact phylogeny estimation such that molecular markers with non-deleterious levels of ALRV can be identified. To this end, we used analyses of empirical and simulated gene datasets to evaluate whether levels of ALRV identified in a mitochondrial genomic dataset for salamanders negatively impacted phylogeny estimation. We simulated data with and without ALRV, holding all other evolutionary parameters constant, and compared the phylogenetic performance of both simulated and empirical datasets. Overall, we found limited, positive effects of ALRV on phylogeny estimation in this dataset, the majority of which resulted from an increase in substitution rate on short branches. We conclude that ALRV does not always negatively impact phylogeny estimation. Therefore, ALRV can likely be disregarded as a criterion for marker selection in comparable phylogenetic studies.     

Estimation of causal effects of a time-varying exposure at multiple time points through multivariable mendelian randomization

Mendelian Randomisation (MR) is a powerful tool in epidemiology that can be used to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of unobserved confounding, by utilising genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) for the exposure. The effect estimates obtained from MR studies are often interpreted as the lifetime effect of the exposure in question. However, the causal effects of some exposures are thought to vary throughout an individual’s lifetime with periods during which an exposure has a greater effect on a particular outcome. Multivariable MR (MVMR) is an extension of MR that allows for multiple, potentially highly related, exposures to be included in an MR estimation. MVMR estimates the direct effect of each exposure on the outcome conditional on all the other exposures included in the estimation. We explore the use of MVMR to estimate the direct effect of a single exposure at different time points in an individual’s lifetime on an outcome. We use simulations to illustrate the interpretation of the results from such analyses and the key assumptions required. We show that causal effects at different time periods can be estimated through MVMR when the association between the genetic variants used as instruments and the exposure measured at those time periods varies. However, this estimation will not necessarily identify exact time periods over which an exposure has the most effect on the outcome. Prior knowledge regarding the biological basis of exposure trajectories can help interpretation. We illustrate the method through estimation of the causal effects of childhood and adult BMI on C-Reactive protein and smoking behaviour.     

Technical note: Regression analysis in adult age estimation

Accurate estimation of human adult age has always been a problem for anthropologists, archaeologists and forensic scientists. The main factor contributing to the difficulties is the high variability of physiological age indicators. However, confounding this variability in many age estimation applications is a systematic tendency for age estimates, regardless of physiological indicator employed, to assign ages which are too high for young individuals, and too low for older individuals. This paper shows that at least part of this error is the inevitable consequence of the statistical procedures used to extract an estimate of age from age indicators, and that the magnitude of the error is inversely related to how well an age indicator is correlated with age. The use of classical calibration over inverse calibration is recommended for age estimation. Am J Phys Anthropol 104:259–265, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Topological Estimation Biases with Covarion Evolution

Covarion processes allow changes in evolutionary rates at sites along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. Covarion-like evolution is increasingly recognized as an important mode of protein evolution. Several recent reports suggest that maximum likelihood estimation employing covarion models may support different optimal topologies than estimation using standard rates-across-sites (RAS) models. However, it remains to be demonstrated that ignoring covarion evolution will generally result in topological misestimation. In this study we performed analytical and theoretical studies of limiting distances under the covarion model and four-taxon tree simulations to investigate the extent to which the covarion process impacts on phylogenetic estimation. In particular, we assessed the limits of an RAS model-based maximum likelihood method to recover the phylogenies when the sequence data were simulated under the covarion processes. We find that, when ignored, covarion processes can induce systematic errors in phylogeny reconstruction. Surprisingly, when sequences are evolved under a covarion process but an RAS model is used for estimation, we find that a long branch repel bias occurs.     

Softwares and methods for estimating genetic ancestry in human populations

The estimation of genetic ancestry in human populations has important applications in medical genetic studies. Genetic ancestry is used to control for population stratification in genetic association studies, and is used to understand the genetic basis for ethnic differences in disease susceptibility. In this review, we present an overview of genetic ancestry estimation in human disease studies, followed by a review of popular softwares and methods used for this estimation.     

Mathematical and kinetic modeling of biofilm reactor based on ant colony optimization

Inverse estimation of model parameters via mathematical modeling route, known as inverse modeling (IM), is an attractive alternative approach to the experimental methods. This approach makes use of efficient optimization techniques in the course of solution of an inverse problem with the aid of measured data. In this study, a novel optimization method based on ant colony optimization (ACO), denoted by ACO-IM, is presented for inverse estimation of kinetic and film thickness parameters of biofilm models that describe an experimental fixed bed anaerobic reactor. The proposed optimization method for parameter estimation emulates the fact that ants are capable of finding the shortest path from a food source to their nest by depositing a trial of pheromone during their walk. The efficacy of the ACO-IM for numerical estimation of bio-kinetic parameters is demonstrated through its application for the anaerobic treatment of industry wastewater in a fixed bed biofilm process. The results explain the rigorousness of mathematical models, the form of kinetic and film thickness models and the type of packing to be used with the biofilm process for accurate determination of kinetic and film thickness parameters so as to ensure reliable predictive performance of the biofilm reactor models.     

陆地植被净初级生产力计算模型研究进展

植被净初级生产力(NPP)研究是全球变化与陆地生态系统的核心内容之一。在回顾NPP模型研究的基础上,综合分析了气候模型、生态生理过程模型、光能利用率模型各自的优缺点,并对NPP模型研究做出展望。生态生理过程模型是当前陆地NPP估算研究的主要手段,而区域尺度转换则是它所面临的关键问题。近年来光能利用率模型已成为NPP估算的一种全新手段,它利用遥感所获得的全覆盖数据,使区域及全球尺度的NPP估算成为可能,但其生态学机理还有待于进一步研究。已有研究表明,“生态一遥感耦合模型”将是陆地NPP估算的主要发展方向,它融合了生态生理过程模型和光能利用率模型的优点,增强了NPP模型估算的可靠性和可操作性。     

Validation of Bayesian analysis of compartmental kinetic models in medical imaging

IntroductionKinetic compartmental analysis is frequently used to compute physiologically relevant quantitative values from time series of images. In this paper, a new approach based on Bayesian analysis to obtain information about these parameters is presented and validated.Materials and methodsThe closed-form of the posterior distribution of kinetic parameters is derived with a hierarchical prior to model the standard deviation of normally distributed noise. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for numerical estimation of the posterior distribution. Computer simulations of the kinetics of F18-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) are used to demonstrate drawing statistical inferences about kinetic parameters and to validate the theory and implementation. Additionally, point estimates of kinetic parameters and covariance of those estimates are determined using the classical non-linear least squares approach.Results and discussionPosteriors obtained using methods proposed in this work are accurate as no significant deviation from the expected shape of the posterior was found (one-sided P > 0.08). It is demonstrated that the results obtained by the standard non-linear least-square methods fail to provide accurate estimation of uncertainty for the same data set (P < 0.0001).ConclusionsThe results of this work validate new methods for a computer simulations of FDG kinetics. Results show that in situations where the classical approach fails in accurate estimation of uncertainty, Bayesian estimation provides an accurate information about the uncertainties in the parameters. Although a particular example of FDG kinetics was used in the paper, the methods can be extended for different pharmaceuticals and imaging modalities.