Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation

Background

Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions.

Conclusions/Significance

We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests.     

The forest issue in post-UNCED international negotiations: conflicting interests and fora for reconciliation

The article is concerned with the international deliberations for a follow-up mechanism of the UNCED Statement of Forest Principles. The forest issue is complicated by the different scientific approaches to the deforestation problem, as represented by climate change and biodiversity respectively. From the former perspective, reforestation may seem an adequate remedy to solve the problem, while from the latter, biodiversity, much more weight must be put on conservation and sustainable utilization. An additional complication is presented by the political divide between developing and industrialized countries concerning the approach to the problem of deforestation. The focus of the article is on the current three main international arenas in which the issue is being discussed: (i) addressing the forest issue within the framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, (ii) enlarging the scope of the International Agreement on Tropical Timber (ITTA) to include all types of forests, and (iii) pursuing the forest issue in a World Commission on Forests and Sustainable Development. The feasibility of achieving agreement and effective implementation within the framework of the various options is the focal point of the discussion.     

Conserving critical sites for biodiversity provides disproportionate benefits to people

Protecting natural habitats in priority areas is essential to halt the loss of biodiversity. Yet whether these benefits for biodiversity also yield benefits for human well-being remains controversial. Here we assess the potential human well-being benefits of safeguarding a global network of sites identified as top priorities for the conservation of threatened species. Conserving these sites would yield benefits--in terms of a) climate change mitigation through avoidance of CO(2) emissions from deforestation; b) freshwater services to downstream human populations; c) retention of option value; and d) benefits to maintenance of human cultural diversity--significantly exceeding those anticipated from randomly selected sites within the same countries and ecoregions. Results suggest that safeguarding sites important for biodiversity conservation provides substantial benefits to human well-being.     

中国生物多样性适应气候变化策略研究

全球气候变化不仅给人类社会可持续发展带来严峻挑战,而且严重威胁到生物多样性及生态安全。我国是生物多样性最为丰富的国家之一,气候变化已经在对动物分布、行为和迁移,植物物候、植被和群落结构等方面造成了影响,并增加了珍稀濒危物种的灭绝风险,同时对生态系统的功能方面也造成了明显影响。未来气候变化将成为生物多样性丧失的主要驱动力之一。世界很多国家都在制定生物多样性适应气候变化的策略和采取适应行动,加强生物多样性的保护。本文在分析国外适应策略的基础上,结合中国生物多样性的现状,提出了适应气候变化的策略建议,包括制定生物多样性适应气候变化的国家战略,开展气候变化对生物多样性的影响监测和评估,针对敏感物种的就地保护和迁地保护,针对气候变化将导致退化生态系统开展恢复与重建,重点关注生物多样性适应气候变化优先区的保护,通过科学研究和国际合作,促进生物多样性适应气候变化技术的提高,期望为我国生物多样性保护和应对气候变化提供支持。     

Does land-use change affect biodiversity dynamics at a macroecological scale? A case study of birds over the past 20 years in Japan

Because the effects of land-use change on biodiversity have primarily been examined at or below the regional scale, it remains unclear whether such effects scale up to the macroecological scale (i.e. nationwide or continental scale). In Japan, forests have become more mature since the cessation of most forestry efforts in the 1970s. At a nationwide scale, this forest maturation may lead to reductions in the abundance of species that depend on early successional forests (early successional species) and increases in the abundance of species that depend on mature forests (mature forest species). Japan has met its high demand for wood through imports from South-east Asia, resulting in deforestation there. Therefore, the abundance of mature forest species that migrate long distances to overwinter in South-east Asia may decrease. We examined changes in the range sizes of birds in Japan over the past 20 years using the living planet index (LPI). The LPI indicated that the range sizes of early successional species decreased. For mature forest species, the range sizes of long-distance migrants decreased, whereas those of short-distance migrants and residents increased. Our predictions were generally supported. Our results indicate that the effects of land-use change extend to the macroecological scale and that such changes in one country can affect the biodiversity dynamics in other countries. Forest maturation in Japan and concomitant deforestation in South-east Asia have been caused by internationally coupled socioeconomic processes. Therefore, biodiversity conservation at the macroecological scale must consider the role of land use, and such efforts will require both international and socioeconomic perspectives.     

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate‐change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process‐oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large‐scale remote‐sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate‐change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.     

Identifying priority areas for conservation: a global assessment for forest-dependent birds

Limited resources are available to address the world's growing environmental problems, requiring conservationists to identify priority sites for action. Using new distribution maps for all of the world's forest-dependent birds (60.6% of all bird species), we quantify the contribution of remaining forest to conserving global avian biodiversity. For each of the world's partly or wholly forested 5-km cells, we estimated an impact score of its contribution to the distribution of all the forest bird species estimated to occur within it, and so is proportional to the impact on the conservation status of the world's forest-dependent birds were the forest it contains lost. The distribution of scores was highly skewed, a very small proportion of cells having scores several orders of magnitude above the global mean. Ecoregions containing the highest values of this score included relatively species-poor islands such as Hawaii and Palau, the relatively species-rich islands of Indonesia and the Philippines, and the megadiverse Atlantic Forests and northern Andes of South America. Ecoregions with high impact scores and high deforestation rates (2000-2005) included montane forests in Cameroon and the Eastern Arc of Tanzania, although deforestation data were not available for all ecoregions. Ecoregions with high impact scores, high rates of recent deforestation and low coverage by the protected area network included Indonesia's Seram rain forests and the moist forests of Trinidad and Tobago. Key sites in these ecoregions represent some of the most urgent priorities for expansion of the global protected areas network to meet Convention on Biological Diversity targets to increase the proportion of land formally protected to 17% by 2020. Areas with high impact scores, rapid deforestation, low protection and high carbon storage values may represent significant opportunities for both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation, for example through Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiatives.     

Co‐benefits,trade‐offs,barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture,forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost‐competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case‐by‐case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land‐use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process.     

森林管理的生态效应研究进展

森林管理是实现森林生产效益最大化的主要措施,是增加碳吸收以减缓气候变暖的关键手段,是调节区域水文循环的有效途径,是保护地以外实现生物多样性保护目标的重要补充。然而,追求单一生产功能的传统森林管理弱化了其他生态功能,并对森林景观结构和生物多样性产生负面影响。全球80%以上森林由于人类活动呈现不同程度退化进而影响人类福祉,森林管理需要优化以追求多维生态功能的协同共赢。当前,对于森林管理的生态效应仍有较多争论或未形成明确认识,可持续森林管理能否取得额外的气候效益仍有待确认,森林管理如何影响不同区域的水文生态功能仍未形成明确认识,不同类型森林管理或多或少、或正面或负面影响栖息地及不同种类生物多样性的强度和方向不明确。因此,森林管理的生态效应是一个值得深入探索的问题,未来需要深入量化不同管理措施对气候变化缓解、水文循环调节、生物多样性保护乃至提供其他生态功能的作用,将维持或提升生态功能及生物多样性作为可持续森林管理的一个重要目标,通过优化森林管理策略开展森林提质增效以获得最大收益。     

How is adaptation to climate change reflected in current practice of forest management and conservation? A case study from Germany

Climate change is expected to challenge forest management and nature conservation in forests. Besides forest species, strategies and references for management and conservation will be affected. In this paper, we qualitatively analysed whether forest conservation and management practice have already adapted to the impacts of climate change and to what extent those practices reflect the adaptation strategies dealt with in international peer-reviewed literature. To this end, we conducted thirteen in-depth interviews with forest practitioners (forest officers/forest district officers) in four regions in Germany. The interview regions were selected to represent the variation in tree species composition, forest ownership regimes and vulnerability to climate change. Although interviewees claimed to take climate change and adaptation strategies into account, in practice such strategies have as yet only occasionally been implemented. Our results suggest that strategies for adapting forest management to climate change are just in the early stages of development or supplement existing strategies relating to general risk reduction or nature-orientated forest management. The extent to which climate change adaptation strategies have influenced overall management varies. This variation and the lack of specific strategies also reflect the existing uncertainties about future changes in climate and about the capacity of forest ecosystems to adapt. We conclude that, in the face of climate change, forest management will have a major influence on future biodiversity composition of forest ecosystems. Hence, a framework for conservation in forests providing recommendations which also take into account the consequences of climate change needs to be developed.     

Tropical forests and the changing earth system

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.     

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local‐level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr^?1 from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr^?1 of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well‐defined ‘local hotspots’ of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.     

How effective are the sustainability criteria accompanying the European Union 2020 biofuel targets?

The expansion of biofuel production can lead to an array of negative environmental impacts. Therefore, the European Union (EU) has recently imposed sustainability criteria on biofuel production in the Renewable Energy Directive (RED). In this article, we analyse the effectiveness of the sustainability criteria for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. We first use a global agriculture and forestry model to investigate environmental effects of the EU member states National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) without sustainability criteria. We conclude that these targets would drive losses of 2.2 Mha of highly biodiverse areas and generate 95 Mt CO ₂ eq of additional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, in a second step, we demonstrate that the EU biofuel demand could be satisfied ‘sustainably’ according to RED despite its negative environmental effects. This is because the majority of global crop production is produced ‘sustainably’ in the sense of RED and can provide more than 10 times the total European biofuel demand in 2020 if reallocated from sectors without sustainability criteria. This finding points to a potential policy failure of applying sustainability regulation to a single sector in a single region. To be effective this policy needs to be more complete in targeting a wider scope of agricultural commodities and more comprehensive in its membership of countries.     

Carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation using macroalgae: a state of knowledge review

The conservation, restoration, and improved management of terrestrial forests significantly contributes to mitigate climate change and its impacts, as well as providing numerous co-benefits. The pressing need to reduce emissions and increase carbon removal from the atmosphere is now also leading to the development of natural climate solutions in the ocean. Interest in the carbon sequestration potential of underwater macroalgal forests is growing rapidly among policy, conservation, and corporate sectors. Yet, our understanding of whether carbon sequestration from macroalgal forests can lead to tangible climate change mitigation remains severely limited, hampering their inclusion in international policy or carbon finance frameworks. Here, we examine the results of over 180 publications to synthesise evidence regarding macroalgal forest carbon sequestration potential. We show that research efforts on macroalgae carbon sequestration are heavily skewed towards particulate organic carbon (POC) pathways (77% of data publications), and that carbon fixation is the most studied flux (55%). Fluxes leading directly to carbon sequestration (e.g. carbon export or burial in marine sediments) remain poorly resolved, likely hindering regional or country-level assessments of carbon sequestration potential, which are only available from 17 of the 150 countries where macroalgal forests occur. To solve this issue, we present a framework to categorize coastlines according to their carbon sequestration potential. Finally, we review the multiple avenues through which this sequestration can translate into climate change mitigation capacity, which largely depends on whether management interventions can increase carbon removal above a natural baseline or avoid further carbon emissions. We find that conservation, restoration and afforestation interventions on macroalgal forests can potentially lead to carbon removal in the order of 10's of Tg C globally. Although this is lower than current estimates of natural sequestration value of all macroalgal habitats (61–268 Tg C year⁻¹), it suggests that macroalgal forests could add to the total mitigation potential of coastal blue carbon ecosystems, and offer valuable mitigation opportunities in polar and temperate areas where blue carbon mitigation is currently low. Operationalizing that potential will necessitate the development of models that reliably estimate the proportion of production sequestered, improvements in macroalgae carbon fingerprinting techniques, and a rethinking of carbon accounting methodologies. The ocean provides major opportunities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and the largest coastal vegetated habitat on Earth should not be ignored simply because it does not fit into existing frameworks.     

Surrogate species protection in Bolivia under climate and land cover change scenarios

The Amazon rainforest covers more than 60% of Bolivia’s lowlands, providing habitat for many endemic and threatened species. Bolivia has the highest rates of deforestation of the Amazon biome, which degrades and fragments species habitat. Anthropogenic habitat changes could be exacerbated by climate change, and therefore, developing relevant strategies for biodiversity protection under global change scenarios is a necessary step in conservation planning.In this research we used multi-species umbrella concept to evaluate the degree of habitat impacts due to climate and land cover change in Bolivia. We used species distribution modeling to map three focal species (Jaguar, Lowland Tapir and Lesser Anteater) and assessed current protected area network effectiveness under future climate and land cover change scenarios for 2050.The studied focal species will lose between 70% and 83% of their ranges under future climate and land-cover change scenarios, decreasing the level of protection to 10% of their original ranges. Existing protected area network should be reconsidered to maintain current and future biodiversity habitats.     

Conserving Southeast Asia’s imperiled biodiversity: scientific,management, and policy challenges

Southeast Asia was almost entirely covered by rainforest 8,000 years ago. Today, this region is experiencing the highest relative rates of deforestation and forest degradation in the humid tropics. Every year, millions of hectares of tropical forests are destroyed and degraded. Given the rapid rate of deforestation and the high concentration of endemic species in the region, Southeast Asia could lose 13–42% of local populations by the turn of the next century, at least 50% of which could represent global species extinction. In this Special Issue, we discuss the uniqueness of Southeast Asian biodiversity, drivers of forest destruction, threats to the region’s unique ecosystems and taxa, and key conservation challenges to provide a broad-based review of the science, management and policy issues concerning biodiversity conservation. Overall, we highlight the need for an interdisciplinary and multi-pronged strategy requiring all major stakeholders to work together to achieve the ultimate goal of reconciling biodiversity conservation and human well-being in the region.     

Forest biodiversity in a changing climate: which logic for conservation strategies?

Climate change has direct and indirect impacts on forest ecosystems worldwide. In this context, changing site conditions and altered disturbance regimes as well as forest management responses are challenging the conservation of biodiversity in forests. Climate-induced dynamics and uncertainties related to future forest ecosystem development are calling into question current conservation strategies and concepts. Given the longevity of trees, slow development rates of forest ecosystems and slow migration rates of many forest species, the planning of adaptation measures in response to climate change are especially difficult though highly important for forest biodiversity conservation. This paper introduces a special issue with eight contributions which deal with a variety of aspects of forest biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. More specifically, the papers address direct impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity, adaptation measures for forest and conservation management, as well as resulting challenges for conservation strategies and concepts. In conclusion, adaptation measures that enhance diversity and provide different options for future action, thereby maintaining ecosystems’ resilience, as well as conservation management operating on a landscape level, are promoted as being beneficial for coping with uncertainties related to climate change. Adaptive management, which constantly reviews conservation goals and measures, and which takes into account both science-based and local ecological knowledge on climate change can be a valuable tool to inform decisions for forest biodiversity conservation.     

A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia,Peru

Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD⁺ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200–300 km². This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 10⁶ tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads.     

西双版纳地区森林变化碳效应与生态效益评估

减少发展中国家因森林砍伐与森林退化导致的碳排放和保持碳储量(REDD+),不仅能减少因森林砍伐和森林退化造成的碳排放,而且还可以带来其它生态效益,如减缓森林破碎化、保护生物多样性和增强水土保持功能等。以中国的西双版纳地区为研究区域,以毁林最严重的1976—2007年为REDD+基线,基于卫星影像,并结合植被指数,提取了研究区的土地利用变化信息。基于IPCC温室气体清单方法,计算了研究区的森林碳储量变化。在此基础上,对REDD+的碳汇效益和生态效益进行了系统综合评估。结果显示：(1)1976—2007年间天然林碳储量从占总碳储量的78.24%减少至50.52%,这是造成西双版纳地区碳储量减少的主要原因。(2)1976—2007年,天然林的斑块数量和平均最近邻距离分别增加了120.00%和25.21%,平均斑块面积下降了71.98%,说明天然林的破碎化程度加剧。从研究区整体景观格局来看,斑块数量、Shannon多样性指数和Shannon均一性指数分别增加了8.16%、51.39%和34.07%;与此同时,平均斑块面积和景观内聚力指数分别下降了26.26%和2.13%,表明研究区整体景观格局...     

The Future of Tropical Forest Species1

Deforestation and habitat loss are widely expected to precipitate an extinction crisis among tropical forest species. Humans cause deforestation, and humans living in rural settings have the greatest impact on extant forest area in the tropics. Current human demographic trends, including slowing population growth and intense urbanization, give reason to hope that deforestation will slow, natural forest regeneration through secondary succession will accelerate, and the widely anticipated mass extinction of tropical forest species will be avoided. Here, we show that the proportion of potential forest cover remaining is closely correlated with human population density among countries, in both the tropics and the temperate zone. We use United Nations population projections and continent‐specific relationships between both total and rural population density and forest remaining today to project future tropical forest cover. Our projections suggest that deforestation rates will decrease as population growth slows, and that a much larger area will continue to be forested than previous studies suggest. Tropical forests retracted to smaller areas during repeated Pleistocene glacial events in Africa and more recently in selected areas that supported large prehistoric human populations. Despite many caveats, these projections and observations provide hope that many tropical forest species will be able to survive the current wave of deforestation and human population growth. A strategy to preserve tropical biodiversity might include policies to improve conditions in tropical urban settings to hasten urbanization and preemptive conservation efforts in countries with large areas of extant forest and large projected rates of future human population growth. We hope that this first attempt inspires others to produce better models of future tropical forest cover and associated policy recommendations.