Distinguishing migration from isolation: a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

A Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating the relative effects of migration and isolation on genetic diversity in a pair of populations from DNA sequence data is developed and tested using simulations. The two populations are assumed to be descended from a panmictic ancestral population at some time in the past and may (or may not) after that be connected by migration. The use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo method allows the joint estimation of multiple demographic parameters in either a Bayesian or a likelihood framework. The parameters estimated include the migration rate for each population, the time since the two populations diverged from a common ancestral population, and the relative size of each of the two current populations and of the common ancestral population. The results show that even a single nonrecombining genetic locus can provide substantial power to test the hypothesis of no ongoing migration and/or to test models of symmetric migration between the two populations. The use of the method is illustrated in an application to mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a fish species: the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus).     

Genetic Differentiation in Populations with Different Classes of Individuals

I formulate and analyse a model of population structure with different classes of individuals. These different classes may be age classes, other demographic classes, or different types of habitats homogeneously distributed over a geographical area. The value of population differentiation under an island model of dispersal and the increase of differentiation with geographical distance in one- and two-dimensional "isolation by distance" models are then obtained for a generalization of the FST measure of population structure, as a function of "effective" mutation, migration, and population size parameters. The relevant effective subpopulation size is related to the "mutation effective population size" of a single isolated subpopulation and, in models of age-structured populations, to the inbreeding effective population size.     

The distribution of the coalescence time and the number of pairwise nucleotide differences in a model of population divergence or speciation with an initial period of gene flow

This paper is concerned with a model of “isolation with an initial period of migration”, where a panmictic ancestral population split into n descendant populations which exchanged migrants symmetrically at a constant rate for a period of time and subsequently became completely isolated. In the limit as the population split occurred an infinitely long time ago, the model becomes an “isolation after migration” model, describing completely isolated descendant populations which arose from a subdivided ancestral population. The probability density function of the coalescence time of a pair of genes and the probability distribution of the number of pairwise nucleotide differences are derived for both models. Whilst these are theoretical results of interest in their own right, they also give an exact analytical expression for the likelihood, for data consisting of the numbers of nucleotide differences between pairs of DNA sequences where each pair is at a different, independent locus. The behaviour of the distribution of the number of pairwise nucleotide differences under these models is illustrated and compared to the corresponding distributions under the “isolation with migration” and “complete isolation” models. It is shown that the distribution of the number of nucleotide differences between a pair of DNA sequences from different descendant populations in the model of “isolation with an initial period of migration” can be quite different from that under the “isolation with migration model”, even if the average migration rate over time (and hence the total number of migrants) is the same in both scenarios. It is also illustrated how the results can be extended to other demographic scenarios that can be described by a combination of isolated panmictic populations and “symmetric island” models.     

Detecting Isolation by Distance Using Phylogenies of Genes

We introduce a method for analyzing phylogenies of genes sampled from a geographically structured population. A parsimony method can be used to compute s, the minimum number of migration events between pairs of populations sampled, and the value of s can be used to estimate the effective migration rate M, the value of Nm in an island model with local populations of size N and a migration rate m that would yield the same value of s. Extensive simulations show that there is a simple relationship between M and the geographic distance between pairs of samples in one- and two-dimensional models of isolation by distance. Both stepping-stone and lattice models were simulated. If two demes k steps apart are sampled, then, s, the average value of s, is a function only of k/(Nm) in a one-dimensional model and is a function only of k/(Nm)2 in a two-dimensional model. Furthermore, log(M) is approximately a linear function of log(k). In a one-dimensional model, the regression coefficient is approximately -1 and in a two-dimensional model the regression coefficient is approximately -0.5. Using data from several locations, the regression of log(M) on log(distance) may indicate whether there is isolation by distance in a population at equilibrium and may allow an estimate of the effective migration rate between adjacent sampling locations. Alternative methods for analyzing DNA sequence data from a geographically structured population are discussed. An application of our method to the data of R. L. Cann, M. Stoneking and A. C. Wilson on human mitochondrial DNA is presented.     

Reinforcement and divergence under assortative mating

Traits that cause assortative mating such as the flowering time in plants and body size in animals can produce reproductive isolation between hybridizing populations. Can selection against unfit hybrids cause two populations to diverge in their mean values for these kinds of traits? Here I present a haploid analytical model of one population that receives gene flow from another. The partial pre-zygotic isolation between the two populations is caused by assortative mating for a trait that is influenced by any number of genes with additive effects. The post-zygotic isolation is caused by selection against genetic incompatibilities that can involve any form of selection on individual genes and gene combinations (epistasis). The analysis assumes that the introgression rate and selection coefficients are small. The results show that the assortment trait mean will not diverge from the immigrants unless there is direct selection on the trait favouring it to do so or there are genes of very large effect. The amount of divergence at equilibrium is determined by a balance between direct selection on the assortment trait and introgression from the other population. Additional selection against hybrid genetic incompatibilities reduces the effective migration rate and allows greater divergence. The role of assortment in speciation is discussed in the light of these results.     

THE EFFECT OF DELAYED POPULATION GROWTH ON THE GENETIC DIFFERENTIATION OF LOCAL POPULATIONS SUBJECT TO FREQUENT EXTINCTIONS AND RECOLONIZATIONS

I investigated the effects of delayed population growth on the genetic differentiation among populations subjected to local extinction and recolonization, for two different migration functions; (1) a constant migration rate, and (2) a constant number of migrants. A delayed period of population growth reduces the size of the newly founded populations for one or several generations. Whether this increases differentiation among local populations depends on the actual pattern of migration. With a constant migration rate, fewer migrants move into small populations than into large, thus providing ample opportunity for drift to act within a population. A prolonged period of population growth thus makes the conditions for enhanced differentiation between local populations less restrictive and also inflates the actual levels of differentiation. The effect depends on the relative magnitudes of k_e, the effective number of colonizers and k, the actual number of colonizers. When there is a constant number of migrants into a population per generation, migration into small populations is increased. This increase of migration in small populations counteracts the effects of genetic drift due to small population size. It increases the rate by which populations approach equilibrium, as small populations are swamped by migrants from larger populations closer to genetic equilibrium, and overall levels of differentiation are thus reduced. I also discuss situations for which the results of this paper are relevant.     

A New Space-Time Computer Simulation Method for Human Migration

Migration is a universal but poorly understood human behavior, and new analytic tools for studying migration are badly needed. In this article, I describe a new computer simulation method for migrating human populations, which moves simulated human actors" on a lattice of points according to simple probability rules. The method includes models of birth, death, crowding, and competition, as well as of migration. Simulations are developed for a number of specific problems, including migration into empty continents, the effect of competition and migration on the spatial distribution of populations, the effect of biased migration on urban population structure, and the distribution of city sizes determined by migration. Direct comparison of simulations with measured population distributions demonstrates the plausibility of the models. The simulations suggest that seemingly complex problems of human space-time population dynamics may be resolved into simple behavioral rules and that migration phenomena can be subjected to scientific analysis. [Key words: migration, computer simulation, random walk, urban structures]     

Distinguishing Migration from Isolation Using the Variance of Pairwise Differences

Two demographic scenarios are considered: two populations with migration and two populations that have been completely isolated from each other for some period of time. The variance of the number of differences between pairs of sequences in a single sample is studied and forms the basis of a test of the isolation model. The migration model is one possible alternative to isolation. The isolation model is rejected when the proposed test statistic, which involves the variances of pairwise difference within and between populations, is larger than some critical value. The power and realized significance of the test are investigated using simulations, and an example using mitochondrial DNA illustrates its application.     

The evolution of reproductive isolation in spatially structured populations

Abstract.— Recent models of speciation have incorporated population structure and migration into the classic model of speciation in which reproductive isolation arises as a by-product of divergence. In this paper, we expanded these models to explore the joint effects of migration and population subdivision on speciation in a spatially explicit context. The results of our simulation support previous results concerning the influence of population subdivision on the accumulation of reproductive isolation. The simulation also shows that speciation in subdivided populations occurs most rapidly when subpopulations are not strictly allopatric. These results counter the widespread notion that speciation is most likely to occur in allopatric populations and suggest that there are useful insights to be gained by incorporating increasingly realistic types of population structure into models of speciation.     

Phenotypic divergence during speciation is inversely associated with differences in seasonal migration

Differences in seasonal migration might promote reproductive isolation and differentiation by causing populations in migratory divides to arrive on the breeding grounds at different times and/or produce hybrids that take inferior migratory routes. We examined this question by quantifying divergence in song, colour, and morphology between sister pairs of North American migratory birds. We predicted that apparent rates of phenotypic differentiation would differ between pairs that do and do not form migratory divides. Consistent with this prediction, results from mixed effects models and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck models of evolution showed different rates of divergence between these groups; surprisingly, differentiation was greater among non-divide pairs. We interpret this finding as a result of variable rates of population blending and fusion between partially diverged forms. Ancient pairs of populations that subsequently fused are now observed as a single form, whereas those that did not fuse are observable as pairs and included in our study. We propose that fusion of two populations is more likely to occur when they have similar migratory routes and little other phenotypic differentiation that would cause reproductive isolation. By contrast, pairs with migratory divides are more likely to remain reproductively isolated, even when differing little in other phenotypic traits. These findings suggest that migratory differences may be one among several isolating barriers that prevent divergent populations from fusing and thereby increase the likelihood that they will continue differentiating as distinct species.     

Joint estimation of migration rate and effective population size using the island model

Using the island model of population demography, I report that the demographic parameters migration rate and effective population size can be jointly estimated with equilibrium probabilities of identity in state calculated using a sample of genotypes collected at a single point in time from a single generation. The method, which uses moment-type estimators, applies to dioecious populations in which females and males have identical demography and monoecious populations with no selfing and requires that offspring genotypes are sampled following reproduction and prior to migration. I illustrate the estimation procedure using the infinite-island model with no mutation and the finite-island model with three kinds of mutation models. In the infinite-island model with no mutation, the estimators can be expressed as simple functions of estimates of the F-statistic parameters F(IT) and F(ST). In the finite-island model with mutation among k alleles, mutation rate, migration rate, and effective population size can be simultaneously estimated. The estimates of migration rate and effective population size are somewhat robust to violations in assumptions that may arise in empirical applications such as different kinds of mutation models and deviations from temporal equilibrium.     

Evolutionary and statistical properties of three genetic distances

Many genetic distances have been developed to summarize allele frequency differences between populations. I review the evolutionary and statistical properties of three popular genetic distances: DS, DA, and theta;, using computer simulation of two simple evolutionary histories: an isolation model of population divergence and an equilibrium migration model. The effect of effective population size, mutation rate, and mutation mechanism upon the parametric value between pairs of populations in these models explored, and the unique properties of each distance are described. The effect of these evolutionary parameters on study design is also investigated and similar results are found for each genetic distance in each model of evolution: large sample sizes are warranted when populations are relatively genetically similar; and loci with more alleles produce better estimates of genetic distance.     

Mitochondrial DNA phylogeography of Acrossocheilus paradoxus (Cyprinidae) in Taiwan

Nucleotide sequences of 3' end of the cytochrome b gene, tRNA genes, D-loop control region, and the 5' end of the 12S rRNA of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) were used to assess the genetic and phylogeographic structure of Acrossocheilus paradoxus populations, a Cyprinidae fish of Taiwan. A hierarchical examination of populations in 12 major streams from three geographical regions using an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicates high genetic differentiation both among populations (PhiST = 0.511, P < 0.001) and among regions (PhiCT = 0.368, P < 0.001). Limited migration largely contributed to the genetic differentiation. High nucleotide diversity (1.13%) and haplotype diversity (0.80%) were detected among populations. The degree of genetic differentiation was correlated with geographical distance between populations, a result consistent with the one-dimensional stepping stone models. A neighbour-joining tree recovered by (DAMBE) supports the pattern of isolation by distance and reveals a closer relationship between populations of the central and southern regions. A minimum spanning network based on nucleotide substitutions reflected migration routes from populations of the central region to the northern and southern regions, respectively. Postglacial colonization and expansion can explain the phylogeographical pattern. Single and ancient migration events may have allowed the northern region to attain the monophyly of mtDNA alleles. In contrast, most populations within geographical regions are either paraphyletic or polyphyletic due to the relatively shorter time period for coalescence. Both low haplotype number and genetic variability suggest a bottleneck event in the Chingmei population of northern Taiwan. Based on coalescence theory, the monophyly of the Tungkang population of the southern region may be associated with a founder event.     

THE EFFECTS OF GENE FLOW ON REINFORCEMENT

We explore the possibility that differences in the pattern of gene flow between populations may affect the evolution of reinforcement by comparing pairs of populations undergoing one-way migration versus symmetric migration. The case of symmetric migration is modeled by a two-island model, where the two populations exchange equal proportions of migrants each generation. One-way migration is modeled by a continent-island model, where migration is in one direction from a large continental population with a fixed genotype to an island population whose genotype frequencies can vary. Hybrid inviability is assumed to be caused by epistatic interactions between background loci. We examine the spread of an introduced preference allele for a previously unpreferred male trait that characterizes one of the populations. Computer simulations indicate that with a weak introduced preference, reinforcement is possible under a wide range of parameter values in a symmetric migration model but cannot occur in a one-way migration model. Reinforcement with one-way migration can occur only with a very strong introduced preference and very strong selection against hybrids. Our results suggest that the speciation of a peripheral isolate, which undergoes essentially one-way migration, may be difficult to complete if secondary contact occurs before reproductive isolation is fully developed.     

Genetic Differentiation and Estimation of Gene Flow from F-Statistics under Isolation by Distance

I reexamine the use of isolation by distance models as a basis for the estimation of demographic parameters from measures of population subdivision. To that aim, I first provide results for values of F-statistics in one-dimensional models and coalescence times in two-dimensional models, and make more precise earlier results for F-statistics in two-dimensional models and coalescence times in one-dimensional models. Based on these results, I propose a method of data analysis involving the regression of F(ST)/(1 - F(ST)) estimates for pairs of subpopulations on geographic distance for populations along linear habitats or logarithm of distance for populations in two-dimensional habitats. This regression provides in principle an estimate of the product of population density and second moment of parental axial distance. In two cases where comparison to direct estimates is possible, the method proposed here is more satisfactory than previous indirect methods.     

A Stochastic Model for Reproductive Isolation Under Asymmetrical Mating Preferences

More and more evidence shows that mating preference is a mechanism that may lead to a reproductive isolation event. In this paper, a haploid population living on two patches linked by migration is considered. Individuals are ecologically and demographically neutral on the space and differ only on a trait, a or A, affecting both mating success and migration rate. The special feature of this paper is to assume that the strengths of the mating preference and the migration depend on the trait carried. Indeed, patterns of mating preferences are generally asymmetrical between the subspecies of a population. I prove that mating preference interacting with frequency-dependent migration behavior can lead to a reproductive isolation. Then, I describe the time before reproductive isolation occurs. To reach this result, I use an original method to study the limiting dynamical system, analyzing first the system without migration and adding migration with a perturbation method. Finally, I study how the time before reproductive isolation is influenced by the parameters of migration and of mating preferences, highlighting that large migration rates tend to favor types with weak mating preferences.     

Generalized aphid population growth models with immigration and cumulative-size dependent dynamics

Mechanistic models in which the per-capita death rate of a population is proportional to cumulative past size have been shown to describe adequately the population size curves for a number of aphid species. Such previous cumulative-sized based models have not included immigration. The inclusion of immigration is suggested biologically as local aphid populations are initiated by migration of winged aphids and as reproduction is temperature-dependent. This paper investigates two models with constant immigration, one with continuous immigration and the other with restricted immigration. Cases of the latter are relatively simple to fit to data. The results from these two immigration models are compared for data sets on the mustard aphid in India.     

Metapopulation models for historical inference

The genealogical process for a sample from a metapopulation, in which local populations are connected by migration and can undergo extinction and subsequent recolonization, is shown to have a relatively simple structure in the limit as the number of populations in the metapopulation approaches infinity. The result, which is an approximation to the ancestral behaviour of samples from a metapopulation with a large number of populations, is the same as that previously described for other metapopulation models, namely that the genealogical process is closely related to Kingman's unstructured coalescent. The present work considers a more general class of models that includes two kinds of extinction and recolonization, and the possibility that gamete production precedes extinction. In addition, following other recent work, this result for a metapopulation divided into many populations is shown to hold both for finite population sizes and in the usual diffusion limit, which assumes that population sizes are large. Examples illustrate when the usual diffusion limit is appropriate and when it is not. Some shortcomings and extensions of the model are considered, and the relevance of such models to understanding human history is discussed.     

The Island Model of Population Differentiation: A General Solution

The island model deals with a species which is subdivided into a number of discrete finite populations, races or subspecies, between which some migration occurs. If the number of populations is small, an assumption of equal rates of migration between each pair of populations may be reasonable approximation. Mutation at a constant rate to novel alleles may also be assumed.-A general solution is given for the process of population divergence under this model following subdivision of a single parental population, expressed in terms of the observed average frequency of heterozygotes within and between subpopulations at a randomly chosen set of independently segregating loci. No restriction is imposed on the magnitude of the migration or mutation rates involved, nor on the number of populations exchanging migrants.-The properties of two fundamental measures of genetic divergence are deduced from the theory. One is a parameter related to varphi, the coefficient of kinship, and the other, gamma, measures the rate of mutational divergence between the sub-populations.