Estimating elephant densities from wells and droppings in dried out riverbeds

In this paper, we present a new method for estimating elephant densities by counting elephant wells and dung boli within dry seasonal flooding rivers. A combination of aerial and ground counts of elephant wells and dung boli in the Ewaso Ngiro River were related to elephant numbers, obtained from an on‐going monitoring program of individually identified elephants in Samburu and Buffalo Spring National Reserves, Kenya. The total number of elephant observations was highly correlated with both densities of wells and dung boli at a spatial resolution of 4‐km river‐section. This indicates that both wells and droppings can be used for estimating relative densities at such spatial resolution. The method can be used as a quick and reliable way of estimating relative elephant densities in semiarid regions but is sensitive to differences in the time when different parts of the river dry out and will be unreliable in areas with secondary un‐censused water sources. A short 4‐week period between the river dry out and the count is recommended, because of an error induced by a level of well reuse and the difficulties in counting areas of high well densities from the air.     

Observations on food remains in faeces of elephant,leopard and crabeater seals

Summary Faecal material of leopard, crabeater and elephant seals was collected from the vicinity of Davis station, Antarctica. Very few identifiable remains were found in elephant seal droppings. Fish remains, mainly of Pleuragramma antarcticum, were found in both leopard and crabeater seal droppings. The mysid Antarctomysis maxima was also found in crabeater seal droppings and amphipods and decapod crustaceans in leopard seal droppings.     

Using sample aerial surveys to estimate the abundance of the endangered Grevy’s zebra in northern Kenya

The effective management of endangered mammals requires reliable estimates of population size. This is challenging for species such as Grevy’s zebra (Equus grevyi) that are distributed over large areas at low densities. Less than 2500 Grevy’s zebra remain in the wild, scattered across 85,000 km² of savannah in northern Kenya and Ethiopia. An efficient, accurate and repeatable survey method is required to guide conservation planning for the species. Currently, total aerial counts are used to census endangered species within Kenya, but are costly in terms of resources. In this study, we evaluated the suitability of sample survey methods for Grevy’s zebra. We estimated population size using sample aerial counts for a known population of Grevy’s zebra in Lewa Wildlife Conservancy (LWC), providing the opportunity to test the accuracy of sample methods, while comparing resource costs with total count methods. We sampled one‐third of LWC using parallel 500‐ m strip transects at 1500‐ m intervals. The population estimate was comparable to the known population size and was less than half as expensive as the equivalent total count survey. Our results suggest sample aerial surveys provide an accurate and cost‐effective means of monitoring Grevy’s zebra and other endangered species in open habitats.     

Elephant (Loxodonta africana) Disturbance to Riparian Woodland: Effects on Tree-Species Richness,Diversity and Functional Redundancy

The substantial increase in elephant populations across many areas in southern Africa over past decades is prompting concerns about the effects on biodiversity. We investigated the outcomes of elephant disturbance on tree-species presence, density, and richness, and on alpha and beta diversity within riparian woodland in Chobe National Park, Botswana. We enumerated all tree species occurring in 32 plots (0.06 ha) along the Chobe riverfront. Plots were stratified by soil type (nutrient-rich alluvium vs. nutrient-poor Kalahari sand covering alluvium) and elephant impact (high vs. low impact on both soil types). We tested four predictions: elephants reduce tree density, richness, and alpha diversity; beta diversity is greater in vegetation subjected to high elephant impact; elephant impact on tree-species composition is greater on nutrient-poor than on nutrient-rich soil; and the loss or decline of abundant tree species on heavily disturbed sites is offset by an increase in abundance of functionally similar species, ones that are minor on lightly disturbed sites. Elephant browsing substantially affected tree-species composition, reducing density, species richness, evenness, and alpha diversity but had no effect on beta diversity. The dominant species on relatively undisturbed areas were partly replaced by functionally similar species on heavily disturbed sites. Soil type influenced species composition on lightly disturbed sites but was less important at higher elephant densities. Our findings are important for areas with extreme dry-season densities of elephants but should not be extrapolated to infer purported effects of elephants on tree diversity at lower densities.     

Elephants caught in the middle: impacts of war, fences and people on elephant distribution and abundance in the Caprivi Strip, Namibia

We conducted wet [26 March–4 April 2003 (Apr03)] and dry [1–8 November 2005 (Nov05)] season aerial surveys of African elephants ( Loxodonta africana Blumenbach) in the Caprivi Strip, Namibia to provide an updated status report on elephant numbers and distribution and assist with a historical analysis of elephant distribution and abundance in the Caprivi Strip. During the wet season when water was available in seasonal pans, elephants were widely distributed throughout the survey area. In contrast, during the dry season, a majority of elephant herds occurred within 30 km of the perennial Kwando, Linyanti and Okavango rivers and few herds occurred within the West Caprivi Game Reserve where water in the seasonal pans was limited. We estimated 5318 elephants for the 7731-km² survey area (0.71 elephants km⁻²) for the Apr03 wet season survey and 6474 elephants for the 8597-km² survey area (0.75 elephants km⁻²) for the Nov05 dry season survey. Based on our aerial surveys and reports of elephant numbers and distribution from historical aerial surveys and telemetry studies, civil war, veterinary fences and human activities appear to have effected changes in African elephant abundance, distribution and movements in the Caprivi Strip, Namibia since 1988 when the first comprehensive aerial surveys were conducted.     

Exploring the relationship between NDVI and African elephant population density in protected areas

Assessing the extent to which populations are limited by bottom‐up processes driven by food limitation is crucial to our understanding of how ecosystems should be managed. Using satellite‐derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an index of resource availability, we investigated the relationships between greenness levels and African elephant (Loxodonta africana) population densities. Our results unveiled a positive relationship between NDVI and elephant densities in nonforest populations, but failed to capture any significant effects of survey area and type, number of years after the continental poaching ban and the IUCN category of the protected area in which the survey was undertaken. The number of forest elephant populations for which density estimates were available was very low, and no significant relationship between NDVI and forest elephant density could be established. Altogether, our study suggests that NDVI can successfully be linked to megaherbivore abundance across Africa and further highlights that a continental approach to energy–abundance relationships can be conducted in a relatively low‐cost manner and short timescale, supporting managers' efforts to identify future suitable areas for elephant populations.     

Evaluating performance of aerial survey data in elephant habitat modelling

Aerial survey data are widely used to model distribution of wildlife. However, their performance in habitat modelling remains largely untested. We used aerial survey and satellite‐linked Global Positioning System (GPS) collar data for elephants, to test (i) whether there is an optimal spatial resolution of predictor variables at which habitat models based on aerial survey data that are uncorrected for locational error can accurately predict elephant habitat and (ii) whether habitat models based on these data sets can accurately predict the presence of elephants in closed woodland habitats. We applied maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to these data sets and used the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as well as distance from water points as the habitat predictors to answer these questions. Our results demonstrate better ability of aerial survey data to predict elephant presence at the coarser spatial resolution of 1000 m of both predictor variables. Habitat models derived from aerial survey data underpredicted elephant presence in more closed woodland habitats than those derived from GPS collar data. This result implies that elephants located under dense tree canopies are likely missed during an aerial survey. Our study is one of the first to empirically test and report results on the poor performance of aerial survey data in habitat modelling especially in dense woodlands.     

A survey of elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Kahuzi-Biega National Park lowland sector and adjacent forest in eastern Zaire

There has been considerable uncertainty about the abundance estimation of Loxodonta africana within tropical lowland moist forests in Zaire. We surveyed a 15,570 km² area within the forests of eastern Zaire using transect sampling methods and estimated the elephant population to be 3720 (range 2300–5000) individuals. Dung pile densities were significantly different between adjacent settlement, deep forest, and deep forest core strata, with the most remote area harbouring the highest density. Evidence of elephant poaching was encountered throughout the survey area suggesting that elephant populations continue to be at severe risk.     

Woodland dynamics under the influence of elephants and fire in Northern Botswana

Sustained elephant browsing and intense burning could result in the loss of woodlands under conditions where elephant densities are high, such as in northern Botswana. Three woodland types dominated by Acacia erioloba, Baikiaea plurijuga and Colophospermum mopane were monitored in plots and contemporary recruitment rates of woody plants were compared with the associated local elephant densities and fire occurrences. Woodland types differed with respect to structure, extent of elephant damage and the occurrence of fire. Canonical correlations indicated that high extent of fire damage and high elephant densities did not covary within the woodland types investigated. Low tree densities in some woodland types were associated with high elephant densities and new elephant damage to plants increased with high elephant densities during the dry season. Plots with an apparent high fire frequency had lower tree densities and higher cover abundance of shrubs and seedlings.The annual rates of tree recruitment/loss in each woodland type were estimated through a model based on observed seedling recruitment, mortality and reversal to lower height classes due to combinations of fire occurrence and elephant browsing. The model suggested that elephants induce tree loss in woodlands dominated by plant species which are principal food sources. Fire however, seems to have a widespread effect across woodlands which could result in extensive tree loss.     

Environmental factors affecting the distribution of African elephants in the Kasigau wildlife corridor,SE Kenya

The African elephant, Loxodonta africana, is under threat from habitat loss, poaching and human–elephant conflict. To mitigate for impact of habitat loss and reduce conflict, connectivity between elephant habitats can be improved through the protection of corridor areas. This study looks at elephant distribution and movement patterns within the Kasigau Wildlife Corridor (KWC) within the Tsavo Conservation Area in South‐east Kenya. Elephant presence data were obtained from observations by rangers during routine patrols across KWC, and were analysed in MaxEnt. The environmental factors predicting elephant distribution and density were tested, as well as the relationship between elephant maximum entropy and the presence and abundance of other wildlife. Seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation, plus presence of waterholes were found to play significant roles in elephant distribution across KWC. Higher elephant densities were not found to correlate with lower densities of other wildlife species; indeed, during the dry seasons, elephant presence was associated with greater wild herbivore densities. Besides illustrating the importance of the KWC for elephant conservation in the Tsavo ecosystem, both as a key corridor and habitat, this study also hopes to highlight the untapped utility of routine ranger patrol data, and encourage the use of such presence‐only data for deducing important knowledge for conservation of biodiversity.     

Assessing the accuracy of plotless density estimators using census counts to refine population estimates of the vultures of Kruger National Park

Breeding population estimates for three vulture species in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, were made in 2013 using data from aerial censuses and a plotless density estimator (PDE). PDEs are distance-based methods used to assess sparse populations unsuitable for plot-based methods. A correction factor was applied to the 2013 estimates to reflect the difference between the survey counts and the PDE figures. We flew additional censuses across most of KNP and counted all visible nests to assess the 2013 estimates. Survey counts were within 95% confidence limits of corrected PDE estimates for White-backed Vulture Gyps africanus (count: 892; estimate: 904 [95% CI ±162]), at the limit of confidence for White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis (count: 48; estimate: 60 [±13]) and outside confidence limits for Lappet-faced Vulture Torgos tracheliotos (count: 44; estimate: 78 [±18]). Uncorrected PDE estimates accurately reflected White-headed and Lappet-faced Vulture nest counts. The clustered patterns of White-backed Vulture nests and dispersed patterns of White-headed and Lappet-faced Vulture nests offer an explanation for these results and means that corrected PDE densities are inaccurate for estimating dispersed nests but accurate for estimating clustered nests. Using PDE methods, aerial surveys over ～35% of KNP are probably sufficient to assess changes in these vulture populations over time. Our results highlight these globally important breeding populations.     

Studies on the air-borne fungal spores in Amritsar: Their role in keratomycosis

An aerial survey for fungal spores in Amritsar has been carried out by petri plate exposure method for a period of one year. A total of 23 fungi appeared in the plates. Out of these Aspergillus was the commonest fungus representing 21.69% of the total colony count followed by Alternaria, Curvularia and Fusarium. There was seasonal variation in the prevalence of fungal spores. A comparison of the prevalence of fungi in diseased and healthy eyes and the atmosphere of Amritsar appeasrs to support the view that these fungi are transient residents in the eyes depending on their availability in the atmosphere.Part of the data presented at the XXXVIII All India Ophthalmological Conference held at Amritsar from January 5–8, 1979.     

A population survey of forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) in northern Congo

From February to April of 1989 transects were run in four forested areas of northern Congo (Brazzaville) to census elephant populations using dung counts. A total of 401.0 km of line transects was completed during the survey. An overall extrapolated density of 0.7 elephants/km² was obtained with a variation from 0.3 to 0.9 elephants/km². This study shows for the first time that elephants occur in high densities in a number of sites in northern Congo. When elephant dung density is plotted against distance from the nearest village for each transect a significant positive linear correlation results. Based on this correlation we hypothesize that the population of elephants in much of northern Congo is high. Local reports and our own observations indicate that elephant poaching is heavy in northern Congo and that the CITES ban on trade in African elephant ivory has had a limited effect on the level of poaching.     

Unmanned Aerial Survey of Elephants

The use of a UAS (Unmanned Aircraft System) was tested to survey large mammals in the Nazinga Game Ranch in the south of Burkina Faso. The Gatewing ×100™ equipped with a Ricoh GR III camera was used to test animal reaction as the UAS passed, and visibility on the images. No reaction was recorded as the UAS passed at a height of 100 m. Observations, made on a set of more than 7000 images, revealed that only elephants (Loxodonta africana) were easily visible while medium and small sized mammals were not. The easy observation of elephants allows experts to enumerate them on images acquired at a height of 100 m. We, therefore, implemented an aerial strip sample count along transects used for the annual wildlife foot count. A total of 34 elephants were recorded on 4 transects, each overflown twice. The elephant density was estimated at 2.47 elephants/km² with a coefficient of variation (CV%) of 36.10%. The main drawback of our UAS was its low autonomy (45 min). Increased endurance of small UAS is required to replace manned aircraft survey of large areas (about 1000 km of transect per day vs 40 km for our UAS). The monitoring strategy should be adapted according to the sampling plan. Also, the UAS is as expensive as a second-hand light aircraft. However the logistic and flight implementation are easier, the running costs are lower and its use is safer. Technological evolution will make civil UAS more efficient, allowing them to compete with light aircraft for aerial wildlife surveys.     

Estimating abundance for a savanna elephant population using mark–resight methods: a case study for the Tembe Elephant Park, South Africa

Elephants living in dense woodlands are difficult to count. Many elephant populations in Africa occur in such conditions. Estimates of these populations based on total counts, aerial counts and dung counts often lack information on precision and accuracy. We use standard mark–recapture field methods to obtain estimates of population size with associated confidence limits. We apply this approach to a closed elephant population in the Tembe Elephant Park (300 km²), South Africa. A registration count completed in 4 months gives a known population size. We evaluate mark–recapture models against the known population size. Individual identification profiles obtained for elephants during the registration count and mark–recapture events indicate that at least 167 elephants live in the park. We consider this value as an estimate of the minimum number alive. We include 189 sightings of bulls and 37 sightings of breeding herds in the mark–recapture modelling. Of the models we test (Petersen, Schnabel, Schumacher, Jolly–Seber, Bowden's, Poisson and negative binomial), Bowden's gives an estimate closest to the registration count. Assumptions of the model are not violated. For all models except one (negative binomial), our estimates improve with increased sampling intensity. Confidence intervals do not improve with increased effort except for the Schnabel model. Mark–recapture methods should be considered as reliable estimators of population size for elephants occurring in dense woodlands and forests when other methods cannot be relied on.     

Decline of sable antelope in one of its key conservation areas: the greater Hwange ecosystem,Zimbabwe

Land use has major effects on wildlife conservation. We studied variations of sable antelope Hippotragus niger densities between 1990 and 2001 in comparison with various land uses in and around Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. Trends of other ungulates, including elephant Loxodonta africana, were examined simultaneously, because sable may be sensitive to forage and apparent competition and to high elephant densities. Sable densities declined in the whole region, very likely because of adverse rainfall conditions. Densities were constantly higher in the hunting areas and forestry lands than in the national park. Interestingly, elephant densities showed the opposite, with higher densities in the national park than in the adjacent areas. Whether these results reflect a negative effect of high elephant numbers on sable must still be tested directly. Likewise, while habitat characteristics and lion predation did not appear responsible for the higher sable densities outside the national park, they could not be discounted as an influence on the differing sable densities in different land‐use areas. It is clear, however, that high protection status is not always sufficient to ensure adequate conservation of flagship species. We therefore call for further investigations of ecological interactions within protected areas.     

A comparison of methods used to count the elephant population of the Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa

Evaluation of alternative techniques used to estimate elephant population sizes is important in order to assess the accuracy of the results obtained, upon which management decisions may be based. Data from annual helicopter surveys carried out in the Addo Elephant National Park (1978–97) are compared with registration counts obtained from intensive ground surveys in which all elephants within the park are individually known. On average, total population size estimated in aerial surveys is 8.0% lower than registration counts (n₁₉₉₇ = 251), aerial calf (< 1 year) counts are 48.8% lower than registration counts, and aerial carcass counts are 50% below the total number of deaths documented in ground surveys. Registration counts provide more accurate demographic data than aerial surveys, the results of which are shown to vary widely and unpredictably, thus compromising their value. Where population estimates rely exclusively on aerial surveys, replicate counts are recommended in order to generate confidence intervals.     

Small-scale dung survey reveals high forest elephant density and preference for mixed species forest in an intact protected area

Understanding the ecological factors influencing African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) abundance and distribution is crucial for their conservation management in Central Africa. Dung surveys have been conducted at the landscape scale and confirmed the overwhelming impact of anthropogenic activities on forest elephants. We present results from a small-scale survey in a pristine protected area without anthropogenic activities to elucidate the ecological factors influencing forest elephant density. We conducted a line transect dung survey in a small study area (110 km²) around Mbeli Bai, a natural forest clearing in the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park, Republic of Congo, and compare results with a landscape survey conducted during the same period. We used habitat specific dung decay data collected on site to estimate elephant density using distance sampling. We fitted Generalized Additive Models to elephant dung encounter rate using explanatory variables collected during the transect survey and from geospatial data. The small-scale survey revealed a precise estimate of forest elephant density that was twice as high as the result from a landscape survey with higher density in mixed species forest for the small-scale survey. We could not find an impact of the proximity of forest clearings and proximity to rivers at the small scale. Fine-scale habitat features, e.g. degree of canopy and understorey closure, had little explanatory power for elephant dung encounter rate. Small-scale dung surveys are a useful method to reveal spatio-temporal variation in forest elephant density and distribution which can inform conservation practitioners in a timely manner. Combining monitoring methods at various spatial scales improves our knowledge and conservation efforts of forest elephants. Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park is a stronghold for forest elephants and of global importance for their conservation.

     

Comparison of sample and total counts of elephant and buffalo in Masai Mara, Kenya

Both aerial transect sample counts and total counts of elephant and buffalo were conducted in the study area during the wet season. The results from the two counting methods were tested for significant difference. The test showed that the results were not significantly different for both the elephant ( P > 0.05) and buffalo ( P > 0.05).     

The impact of elephants on the marula tree Sclerocarya birrea

This study determined the abundance, density and population structure of the marula tree, Sclerocarya birrea, in three game reserves in South Africa, and assessed patterns and amounts of new and cumulative impact of elephants. Elephant feeding was very patchy so several attributes of individual trees, sampled transects and communities that might influence elephant herbivory were investigated. The incidence and type of elephant impact (bark, branch or stem breakage) were significantly related to tree diameter, but not to fruiting nor proximity to roads. At the transect level, elephant impact was influenced by density of marula trees, but was not influenced by proximity to roads, nor proportion of marula trees bearing fruits in the vicinity. At the community level, elephant impact was higher on reserves with higher total marula densities. Fourfold differences in elephant densities (0.08–0.30 elephants km^?2) did not explain marula consumption: the percentage of trees with branch damage was similar across reserves and bark damage was inversely proportional to elephant density. Variation across reserves may reflect local and landscape‐level marula tree abundance, differences in alternative food plants and individual feeding habits. The recorded levels of impact appeared to be sustainable because mortality rates were low, affected trees often recovered, and small trees were not preferentially preyed upon.