Profit-sharing in health care institutions.

Zidovudine (AZT) is the first antiretroviral agent to be licensed for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Since the initial placebo-controlled trial showing improved survival among patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or symptomatic HIV infection (AIDS-related complex [ARC]) zidovudine has been evaluated in other stages of HIV infection. This review offers physicians who treat patients with HIV infection a comprehensive analysis of the current data on the clinical efficacy of zidovudine in various stages of HIV infection and on zidovudine''s adverse effects. After a search of MEDLINE for pertinent articles published since 1985, controlled studies and studies of long-term zidovudine therapy, of zidovudine therapy for HIV-related conditions and of the incidence and management of adverse reactions were evaluated. In addition, abstracts from international meetings were reviewed. No significant difference in clinical outcome was found between high-dose and low-dose zidovudine therapy, but there were significantly fewer toxic effects in the low-dose group. In two other studies zidovudine was found to delay disease progression in patients with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic HIV infection who had an absolute CD4 count of less than 0.5 x 10(9)/L; the low incidence of adverse reactions may have been due to either the early stage of the infection or the low dose used. The demonstration of zidovudine-resistant isolates after at least 6 months of therapy has yet to be correlated with clinical deterioration. When to begin zidovudine therapy among asymptomatic patients with a CD4 count of less than 0.5 x 10(9)/L remains unclear. Zidovudine can be used safely to delay progression to AIDS or ARC in certain patients with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic HIV infection and can prolong survival in those with more severe infection. Further studies are necessary to identify indicators that could better define when to start treatment and how to alleviate toxic effects. Combination therapy with such agents as interferon alpha may become the preferred choice of therapy to prevent toxic effects and zidovudine resistance. Zidovudine prophylaxis has been used after HIV exposure. Although studies with animal models have had encouraging results infection has occurred despite immediate prophylaxis and thus further investigation is required.     

Double blind dose-response study of zidovudine in AIDS and advanced HIV infection. Nordic Medical Research Councils' HIV Therapy Group.

OBJECTIVE--To compare the efficacy and side effects of 400 mg, 800 mg, and 1200 mg zidovudine daily in patients with AIDS or advanced HIV infection. DESIGN--Randomised, double blind, parallel group multicentre study. SETTING--Hospital departments of infectious diseases and dermatology in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Iceland. SUBJECTS--474 patients: 126 (27%) with AIDS; 248 (52%) with HIV related symptoms; 100 (21%) with low CD4+ cell counts. INTERVENTIONS--Zidovudine 400 mg (160 patients), 800 mg (158), or 1200 mg (156) daily. All patients received one capsule from each of three bottles four times daily. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Survival; incidence of new HIV related events; CD4+ cell count; quality of life; incidence of haematological side effects. RESULTS--460 (97%) of the 474 patients had not received zidovudine previously. The median follow up period was 19 months, during which the death rates in the three treatment groups were 23% (36/160 patients), 23% (36/158), and 19% (30/156) respectively (p = 0.49; log rank test). One year after the trial was terminated the death rates were 38% (61/160), 41% (64/158), and 44% (68/156) respectively (p = 0.54). There was no significant difference between the groups in time to a new AIDS defining event or death, average number of events per patient, decline in CD4+ cell counts, wellbeing (visual analogue scale), or Karnofsky score. Zidovudine was withdrawn in 132 (28%) patients, mainly because of side effects (71 cases; 15%). The incidences of anaemia and leucopenia, time to first dose reduction, and numbers of patients withdrawn were all dose related. CONCLUSION--Zidovudine should be limited to 400-600 mg daily in patients with AIDS or advanced HIV infection.     

Variability in serial CD4 counts and relation to progression of HIV-I infection to AIDS in haemophilic patients. Transfusion Safety Study Group.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the CD4 count and its near term changes relative to progression to AIDS within 30 months and to subsequent CD4 counts. DESIGN--Longitudinal clinical and laboratory study. SETTING--Haemophilia treatment centres in six large American cities. PATIENTS--555 people with congenital clotting disorders who were infected with HIV, initially without AIDS, and seen at follow up for 6-30 months in 1986-9. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Absolute CD4 counts and incidence of AIDS. RESULTS--Outset CD4 count and age were independently related to progression to AIDS (p less than 0.0001 and p less than 0.005 respectively). Patients with CD4 counts of 0.30-0.49 x 10(9) cells/l had an age adjusted risk of AIDS within 30 months of only 9% that of patients with counts less than 0.20 x 10(9)/l. Children under 10 years old had only 16% of the CD4 adjusted risk of AIDS of people aged greater than or equal to 45 years. Analysis of 149 patients'' CD4 counts at the beginning and end of two successive six month intervals showed an average decrease of 11% in each six months regardless of the outset count (greater than or equal to 0.20 x 10(9)/l). For individual patients the decrease in the second six month period was unaffected by the decrease in the first six month period. CONCLUSIONS--Antiviral treatment of asymptomatic people, particularly children, with CD4 counts greater than or equal to 0.3 x 10(9)/l is questionable if predicted on near term progression to AIDS. Because of individual CD4 count variability and the low rate of progression to AIDS near term declines in individual CD4 counts are a poor index for identifying people who will rapidly progress to AIDS.     

Progression of HIV disease in a haemophilic cohort followed for 11 years and the effect of treatment.

OBJECTIVE--To describe the progression of HIV disease in a haemophilic cohort and to show the influence of treatment. DESIGN--11 year longitudinal clinical and laboratory study. SETTING--A haemophilia centre. PATIENTS--111 patients infected with HIV during October 1979 to July 1985. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Symptoms of HIV infection, AIDs, and death. INTERVENTIONS--26 asymptomatic patients started taking zidovudine or placebo (1000 mg/day) during November 1988 to February 1990; 10 patients with CD4+ counts of 0.2 x 10(9)/l started zidovudine 500 mg/day during January to November 1990. 35 patients used pentamidine for primary or secondary prophylaxis. RESULTS--At 11 years from seroconversion the estimated rate of progression to AIDS was 42% (95% confidence interval 27% to 57%); to symptoms 85% (75% to 95%); and to death 41% (25% to 57%). Progression to AIDS was significantly faster in patients aged 25 and over than in those aged less than 25 (relative risk 5.0 (2.4 to 10.4); p less than 0.00001) and in those with previous cytomegalovirus infection than in those not infected (relative risk 3.0 (1.4 to 6.8); p = 0.006). 16 of 27 (59%) patients with p24 antigenaemia developed AIDS compared with 17 of 84 (20%) patients without p24 antigen (p less than 0.001). The risk of progression to AIDS before 30 November 1988 in patients with CD4+ counts less than or equal to 0.2 x 10(9)/l was higher than after November 1988 (relative risk 1.9 (0.85 to 4.43); p = 0.1). For 1989 and 1990 the observed cumulative numbers of AIDS cases (among 81 patients with sufficient CD4+ counts) were 22 and 25 compared with 29 and 37 predicted from the rate of fall of CD4+ counts up to the end of 1988 (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION--Treatment seems to be reducing the progression of HIV disease in this haemophilic cohort.     

HIV Cure Strategies: How Good Must They Be to Improve on Current Antiretroviral Therapy?

Background

We examined efficacy, toxicity, relapse, cost, and quality-of-life thresholds of hypothetical HIV cure interventions that would make them cost-effective compared to life-long antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods

We used a computer simulation model to assess three HIV cure strategies: Gene Therapy, Chemotherapy, and Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT), each compared to ART. Efficacy and cost parameters were varied widely in sensitivity analysis. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life expectancy, lifetime cost, and cost-effectiveness in dollars/quality-adjusted life year ($/QALY) gained. Strategies were deemed cost-effective with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios <$100,000/QALY.

Results

For patients on ART, discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy was 16.4 years and lifetime costs were $591,400. Gene Therapy was cost-effective with efficacy of 10%, relapse rate 0.5%/month, and cost $54,000. Chemotherapy was cost-effective with efficacy of 88%, relapse rate 0.5%/month, and cost $12,400/month for 24 months. At $150,000/procedure, SCT was cost-effective with efficacy of 79% and relapse rate 0.5%/month. Moderate efficacy increases and cost reductions made Gene Therapy cost-saving, but substantial efficacy/cost changes were needed to make Chemotherapy or SCT cost-saving.

Conclusions

Depending on efficacy, relapse rate, and cost, cure strategies could be cost-effective compared to current ART and potentially cost-saving. These results may help provide performance targets for developing cure strategies for HIV.     

Cost effectiveness analysis of intensive versus conventional follow up after curative resection for colorectal cancer

Objective To determine the cost effectiveness of intensive follow up compared with conventional follow up in patients with colorectal cancer.Design Incremental cost effectiveness analysis recognising differences in follow up strategies, based on effectiveness data from a meta-analysis of five randomised trials.Setting United Kingdom.Main outcome measures Taking a health service perspective, estimated incremental costs effectiveness ratios for each life year gained for five trials and four trials designed for early detection of extramural recurrences (targeted surveillance).Results Based on five year follow up, the numbers of life years gained by intensive follow up were 0.73 for the five trial model and 0.82 for the four trial model. For the five trials, the adjusted net (extra) cost for each patient was £2479 (€3550; $4288) and for each life year gained was £3402, substantially lower than the current threshold of NHS cost acceptability (£30 000). The corresponding values for the four trial model were £2529 and £3077, suggesting that targeted surveillance is more cost effective. The main predictor of incremental cost effectiveness ratios was surveillance costs rather than treatment costs. Judged against the NHS threshold of cost acceptability, the predicted incremental cost threshold was ninefold and the effectiveness threshold was 3%.Conclusions Based on the available data and current costs, intensive follow up after curative resection for colorectal cancer is economically justified and should be normal practice. There is a continuing need to evaluate the efficacy of specific surveillance tools: this study forms the basis for economic evaluations in such trials.     

Cost-Effectiveness and Cost Thresholds of Generic and Brand Drugs in a National Chronic Hepatitis B Treatment Program in China

Chronic liver disease and liver cancer associated with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are leading causes of death among adults in China. Although newborn hepatitis B immunization has successfully reduced the prevalence of CHB in children, about 100 million Chinese adults remain chronically infected. If left unmanaged, 15–25% will die from liver cancer or liver cirrhosis. Antiviral treatment is not necessary for all patients with CHB, but when it is indicated, good response to treatment would prevent disease progression and reduce disease mortality and morbidity, and costly complications. The aim of this study is to analyze the cost-effectiveness of generic and brand antiviral drugs for CHB treatment in China, and assessing various thresholds at which a highly potent, low resistance antiviral drug would be cost-saving and/or cost-effective to introduce in a national treatment program. We developed a Markov simulation model of disease progression using effectiveness and cost data from the medical literature. We measured life-time costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and clinical outcomes. The no treatment strategy incurred the highest health care costs ($12,932-$25,293) per patient, and the worst health outcomes, compared to the antiviral treatment strategies. Monotherapy with either entecavir or tenofovir yielded the most QALYs (14.10–19.02) for both HBeAg-positive and negative patients, with or without cirrhosis. Threshold analysis showed entercavir or tenofovir treatment would be cost saving if the drug price is $32–75 (195–460 RMB) per month, highly cost-effective at $62–110 (379–670 RMB) per month and cost-effective at $63–120 (384–734 RMB) per month. This study can support policy decisions regarding the implementation of a national health program for chronic hepatitis B treatment in China at the population level.     

Cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in STD clinics, emergency departments, and inpatient units: a model-based analysis

Background

Identifying and treating persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection early in their disease stage is considered an effective means of reducing the impact of the disease. We compared the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in three settings, sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics serving men who have sex with men, hospital emergency departments (EDs), settings where patients are likely to be diagnosed early, and inpatient diagnosis based on clinical manifestations.

Methods and Findings

We developed the Progression and Transmission of HIV/AIDS model, a health state transition model that tracks index patients and their infected partners from HIV infection to death. We used program characteristics for each setting to compare the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained from early versus late diagnosis and treatment. We ran the model for 10,000 index patients for each setting, examining alternative scenarios, excluding and including transmission to partners, and assuming HAART was initiated at a CD4 count of either 350 or 500 cells/µL. Screening in STD clinics and EDs was cost-effective compared with diagnosing inpatients, even when including only the benefits to the index patients. Screening patients in STD clinics, who have less-advanced disease, was cost-effective compared with ED screening when treatment with HAART was initiated at a CD4 count of 500 cells/µL. When the benefits of reduced transmission to partners from early diagnosis were included, screening in settings with less-advanced disease stages was cost-saving compared with screening later in the course of infection. The study was limited by a small number of observations on CD4 count at diagnosis and by including transmission only to first generation partners of the index patients.

Conclusions

HIV prevention efforts can be advanced by screening in settings where patients present with less-advanced stages of HIV infection and by initiating treatment with HAART earlier in the course of infection.     

Declining incidence of AIDS dementia complex after introduction of zidovudine treatment.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the incidence of the AIDS dementia complex and the presence of HIV I p24 antigen in cerebrospinal fluid in relation to zidovudine treatment. DESIGN--Retrospective study of a consecutive series of patients with AIDS from 1982 to 1988. SETTING--An academic centre for AIDS. PATIENTS--196 Patients with AIDS and neurological symptoms examined from 1982 to 1988. INTERVENTIONS--Zidovudine treatment, which was introduced to The Netherlands on 1 May 1987 for patients with severe symptoms of HIV infection (Centers for Disease Control groups IVA, B, C, and D). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Diagnosis of AIDS dementia complex and presence of HIV I p24 antigen in cerebrospinal fluid. RESULTS--The AIDS dementia complex was diagnosed in 40 of the 196 (20%) patients with AIDS. Thirty eight of 107 patients with AIDS (36%) not taking zidovudine developed the AIDS dementia complex compared with two of the 89 (2%) taking the drug (p less than 0.00001). The incidence of the AIDS dementia complex increased to 53% in the first half of 1987, after the introduction of zidovudine in May 1987, decreasing to 10% in the second half of 1987 and to 3% in 1988. Dementia was diagnosed before definition of the AIDS dementia complex (1986) according to DSM-III criteria and there was good agreement between diagnosis before and after 1986. Sixteen of 61 samples of cerebrospinal fluid (26%) from patients with AIDS (10 with the AIDS dementia complex) not taking zidovudine were positive for HIV I p24 antigen, whereas none of 37 cerebrospinal fluid samples from patients with AIDS (two with the AIDS dementia complex) taking zidovudine were positive. CONCLUSIONS--The incidence of AIDS dementia complex in patients with AIDS declined after the introduction of systematic treatment with zidovudine; the AIDS dementia complex might be prevented by inhibiting viral replication in the central nervous system.     

Economic returns to investment in AIDS treatment in low and middle income countries

Since the early 2000s, aid organizations and developing country governments have invested heavily in AIDS treatment. By 2010, more than five million people began receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART)--yet each year, 2.7 million people are becoming newly infected and another two million are dying without ever having received treatment. As the need for treatment grows without commensurate increase in the amount of available resources, it is critical to assess the health and economic gains being realized from increasingly large investments in ART. This study estimates total program costs and compares them with selected economic benefits of ART, for the current cohort of patients whose treatment is cofinanced by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. At end 2011, 3.5 million patients in low and middle income countries will be receiving ART through treatment programs cofinanced by the Global Fund. Using 2009 ART prices and program costs, we estimate that the discounted resource needs required for maintaining this cohort are $14.2 billion for the period 2011-2020. This investment is expected to save 18.5 million life-years and return $12 to $34 billion through increased labor productivity, averted orphan care, and deferred medical treatment for opportunistic infections and end-of-life care. Under alternative assumptions regarding the labor productivity effects of HIV infection, AIDS disease, and ART, the monetary benefits range from 81 percent to 287 percent of program costs over the same period. These results suggest that, in addition to the large health gains generated, the economic benefits of treatment will substantially offset, and likely exceed, program costs within 10 years of investment.     

Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness of Oral Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis in a Portfolio of Prevention Programs for Injection Drug Users in Mixed HIV Epidemics

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis with oral antiretroviral treatment (oral PrEP) for HIV-uninfected injection drug users (IDUs) is potentially useful in controlling HIV epidemics with a significant injection drug use component. We estimated the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of strategies for using oral PrEP in various combinations with methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Ukraine, a representative case for mixed HIV epidemics.

Methods and Findings

We developed a dynamic compartmental model of the HIV epidemic in a population of non-IDUs, IDUs who inject opiates, and IDUs in MMT, adding an oral PrEP program (tenofovir/emtricitabine, 49% susceptibility reduction) for uninfected IDUs. We analyzed intervention portfolios consisting of oral PrEP (25% or 50% of uninfected IDUs), MMT (25% of IDUs), and ART (80% of all eligible patients). We measured health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), HIV prevalence, HIV infections averted, and incremental cost effectiveness. A combination of PrEP for 50% of IDUs and MMT lowered HIV prevalence the most in both IDUs and the general population. ART combined with MMT and PrEP (50% access) averted the most infections (14,267). For a PrEP cost of $950, the most cost-effective strategy was MMT, at $520/QALY gained versus no intervention. The next most cost-effective strategy consisted of MMT and ART, costing $1,000/QALY gained compared to MMT alone. Further adding PrEP (25% access) was also cost effective by World Health Organization standards, at $1,700/QALY gained. PrEP alone became as cost effective as MMT at a cost of $650, and cost saving at $370 or less.

Conclusions

Oral PrEP for IDUs can be part of an effective and cost-effective strategy to control HIV in regions where injection drug use is a significant driver of the epidemic. Where budgets are limited, focusing on MMT and ART access should be the priority, unless PrEP has low cost.     

Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050

Background

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa.

Methods

We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15–49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ (current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011–2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses.

Results

Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm³ prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9–194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%.

Conclusion

Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.     

Is the clinical course of HIV-1 changing? Cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the clinical course of HIV infection has changed from 1985 to 1995. DESIGN: Cohort Study. SETTING: Infectious disease clinic. SUBJECTS: 285 patients recruited from September 1985 to January 1995 with < or = 12 months between the dates of their last seronegative and first seropositive test result and with first follow up visit in the six months after seroconversion and at least 12 months'' follow up. Patients were grouped according to the date of seroconversion. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to CD4 cell count of < 500, 400, and 200 x 10(6) cells/l, and clinical outcome defining AIDS; variation in cell count per day between consecutive visits, and ratio between this variation and time from estimated date of seroconversion at each visit. RESULTS: The groups were similar in age, number with acute primary HIV infection, CD4 cell count at intake, and cell count at the beginning of antiretroviral treatment; they differed in sex ratio, risk factors for HIV, probability of CD4 cell decline to < 500, 400, and 200 x 10(6) cells/l. and risk of developing AIDS. Acute infection, seroconversion after December 1989, and serum beta 2 microglobulin > 296 nmol/l were independent predictors of poor clinical course. The speed of CD4 cell decline, expressed as cell variation divided by the number of days between consecutive visits, increased with more recent seroconversion (P = 0.02). Ratio between the speed of CD4 cell decline and time from estimated date of seroconversion at each visit was also higher in the patients who seroconverted after December 1989. CONCLUSIONS: The faster disease progression and the higher speed of CD4 cell decline at early stages in the patients with recently acquired HIV infection suggest changes in the clinical course of HIV infection.     

Use of CD4 lymphocyte count to predict long-term survival free of AIDS after HIV infection.

OBJECTIVE--To estimate the probability of remaining free of AIDS for up to 25 years after infection with HIV by extrapolation of changes in CD4 lymphocyte count. DESIGN--Cohort study of subjects followed from time of HIV seroconversion until 1 January 1993. Creation of model by using extrapolated linear regression slopes of CD4 count to predict development of AIDS after 1993. SETTING--Regional haemophilia centre in teaching hospital. SUBJECTS--111 men with haemophilia infected with HIV during 1979-85. Median length of follow up 10.1 years, median number of CD4 counts 17. The model was not fitted for three men because only one CD4 measurement was available. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Development of AIDS. INTERVENTIONS--From 1989 prophylaxis against candida and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and antiretroviral drugs when CD4 count fell below 200 x 10(6)/l. RESULTS--44 men developed AIDS up to 1 January 1993. When AIDS was defined as a CD4 count of 50 x 10(6)/l the model predicted that 25% (95% confidence interval 16% to 34%) would survive for 20 years after seroconversion and 18% (11% to 25%) for 25 years. Changing the CD4 count at which AIDS was assumed to occur did not alter the results. Younger patients had a higher chance of 20 year survival than older patients (32% (12% to 52%) for those aged < 15, 26% (14% to 38%) for those aged 15-29, and 15% (0% to 31%) for those aged > or = 30). CONCLUSIONS--These results suggest that even with currently available treatment up to a quarter of patients with HIV infection will survive for 20 years after seroconversion without developing AIDS.     

The acquired immune deficiency syndrome and epidemic of infection with human immunodeficiency virus: costs of care and prevention in an inner London district.

The epidemic of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) necessitates early planning of services and allocation of resources. The use of hospital resources by patients with AIDS and the planned additional costs of clinical and preventive services for the epidemic of infection with HIV were calculated for an inner London health district that has treated 18% of the cases in the United Kingdom. Patients with AIDS required on average 50 days of inpatient hospital care each at an estimated current average lifetime cost of pounds 6800. These costs, however, underestimated the additional capital and revenue costs of planned new preventive and treatment services, estimated as being pounds 388,000 revenue and pounds 472,000 capital for 1986-7. It is important to invest now in preventive services throughout the United Kingdom to reduce the future social and financial costs of AIDS.     

Cost-effectiveness of primary prophylaxis of AIDS associated cryptococcosis in Cambodia

Background

Cryptococcal infection is a frequent cause of mortality in Cambodian HIV-infected patients with CD4+ count ≤100 cells/µl. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of three strategies for cryptococcosis prevention in HIV-infected patients.

Methods

A Markov decision tree was used to compare the following strategies at the time of HIV diagnosis: no intervention, one time systematic serum cryptococcal antigen (CRAG) screening and treatment of positive patients, and systematic primary prophylaxis with fluconazole. The trajectory of a hypothetical cohort of HIV-infected patients with CD4+ count ≤100 cells/µl initiating care was simulated over a 1-year period (cotrimoxazole initiation at enrollment; antiretroviral therapy within 3 months). Natural history and cost data (US$ 2009) were from Cambodia. Efficacy data were from international literature.

Results

In a population in which 81% of patients had a CD4+ count ≤50 cells/ µl and 19% a CD4+ count between 51–100 cells/µl, the proportion alive 1 year after enrolment was 61% (cost $ 472) with no intervention, 70% (cost $ 483) with screening, and 72% (cost $ 492) with prophylaxis. After one year of follow-up, the cost-effectiveness of screening vs. no intervention was US$ 180/life year gained (LYG). The cost-effectiveness of prophylaxis vs. screening was $ 511/LYG. The cost-effectiveness of prophylaxis vs. screening was estimated at $1538/LYG if the proportion of patients with CD4+ count ≤50 cells/µl decreased by 75%.

Conclusion

In a high endemic area of cryptococcosis and HIV infection, serum CRAG screening and prophylaxis are two cost effective strategies to prevent AIDS associated cryptococcosis in patients with CD4+ count ≤100 cells/µl, at a short-term horizon, screening being more cost-effective but less effective than prophylaxis. Systematic primary prophylaxis may be preferred in patients with CD4+ below 50 cells/µl while systematic serum CRAG screening for early targeted treatment may be preferred in patients with CD4+ between 51–100 cells/µl.     

Correspondence

The economic cost of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in San Diego County, California, is forecast to increase from $103 million in 1986 to between $502 and $743 million in 1991, rising at a minimum average annual rate of 30% after adjusting for inflation. A greater emphasis on outpatient care and the use of new therapies that increase life expectancy by reducing the frequency and severity of morbidity will decrease the future annual cost of treatment but will have a small effect on total economic costs because of substantial foregone earnings by persons with AIDS. Estimating the economic impact of this disease provides valuable information for formulating effective strategies to treat AIDS patients, to provide education for limiting the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus, and to achieve other health objectives.     

Universal precautions to prevent HIV transmission to health care workers: an economic analysis.

The universal precautions recommended by the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Atlanta, for the prevention of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) transmission to health care workers are widely accepted, despite little documentation of their effectiveness and efficiency. We reviewed the evidence on the risk of HIV transmission to hospital workers and the effectiveness of the universal precautions. We also evaluated the costs of implementing the recommendations in a 450-bed acute care teaching hospital in Hamilton, Ont. On the basis of aggregated results from six prospective studies the risk of HIV seroconversion among hospital workers after a needlestick injury involving a patient known to have AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) is 0.36% (upper 95% confidence limit 0.67%); the risk after skin and mucous membrane exposure to blood or other body fluids of AIDS patients is 0% (upper 95% confidence limit 0.38%). We estimated that 0.038 cases of HIV seroconversion would be prevented annually in the study hospital if the CDC recommendations were followed. The incremental cost of implementing the universal precautions was estimated to be about $315,000 per year, or over $8 million per case of HIV seroconversion prevented. If all HIV-infected workers were assumed to have AIDS within 10 years of infection the of the program would be about $565,000 per life-year saved. When less conservative, more probable assumptions were applied the best estimate of the implementation cost was $128,862,000 per case of HIV seroconversion prevented. The universal precautions implemented in the study hospital were not found to be efficacious or cost-effective. To minimize the already small risk of HIV transmission in hospitals the sources of risk of percutaneous injury should be better defined and the design of percutaneous lines, needles and surgical equipment as well as techniques improved. Preventive measures recommended on the basis of demonstrated efficacy and aimed at routes of exposure that represent true risk are needed.     

Comparison of cost effectiveness of directly observed treatment (DOT) and conventionally delivered treatment for tuberculosis: experience from rural South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct an economic evaluation of directly observed treatment (DOT) and conventionally delivered treatment for the management of new cases of tuberculosis in adults. DESIGN: Community based directly observed treatment, which has been implemented in the Hlabisa district of South Africa since 1991, was compared with a conventional approach to tuberculosis treatment widely used in Africa. Each was assessed in terms of cost, cost effectiveness, and feasibility of implementation within existing resource constraints. SETTING: Hlabisa Health District, South Africa. SUBJECTS: Adult patients with new cases of tuberculosis on smear testing; the number of cases increased from 20 per month to over 100 from 1991 to 1996. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost of case management in 1996, cost effectiveness in terms of the cost per case cured, and bed requirements in comparison with bed availability for the 1990, 1993, and 1996 caseload. Costs are expressed in US dollars at values for 1996. RESULTS: Directly observed treatment was 2.8 times cheaper overall than conventional treatment ($740.90 compared with $2047.70) to deliver. Directly observed treatment worked out 2.4-4.2 times more cost effective, costing $890.50 per patient cured compared with either $2095.60 (best case) or $3700.40 (worst case) for conventional treatment. The 1996 caseload of tuberculosis required 47 beds to be dedicated to tuberculosis to implement directly observed treatment, whereas conventionally delivered treatment would have required 160 beds; the current number of beds for tuberculosis treatment in Hlabisa is fixed at 56. CONCLUSIONS: Because of the reduced stay in hospital, directly observed treatment is cheaper, more cost effective, and more feasible than conventional treatment in managing tuberculosis in Hlabisa, given the existing hospital bed capacity and the escalating caseload due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Such results may hold elsewhere, and wherever conventional tuberculosis management is practised a switch to directly observed treatment will increase hospital capacity to cope with a growing caseload.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Treatment Strategies for BRAF-Mutated Metastatic Melanoma

Purpose

Genetically-targeted therapies are both promising and costly advances in the field of oncology. Several treatments for metastatic melanoma with a mutation in the BRAF gene have been approved. They extend life but are more expensive than the previous standard of care (dacarbazine). Vemurafenib, the first drug in this class, costs $13,000 per month ($207,000 for a patient with median survival). Patients failing vemurafenib are often given ipilimumab, an immunomodulator, at $150,000 per course. Assessment of cost-effectiveness is a valuable tool to help navigate the transition toward targeted cancer therapy.

Methods

We performed a cost-utility analysis to compare three strategies for patients with BRAF+ metastatic melanoma using a deterministic expected-value decision tree model to calculate the present value of lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each strategy. We performed sensitivity analyses on all variables.

Results

In the base case, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for vemurafenib compared with dacarbazine was $353,993 per QALY gained (0.42 QALYs added, $156,831 added). The ICER for vemurafenib followed by ipilimumab compared with vemurafenib alone was $158,139. In sensitivity analysis, treatment cost had the largest influence on results: the ICER for vemurafenib versus dacarbazine dropped to $100,000 per QALY gained with a treatment cost of $3600 per month.

Conclusion

The cost per QALY gained for treatment of BRAF+ metastatic melanoma with vemurafenib alone or in combination exceeds widely-cited thresholds for cost-effectiveness. These strategies may become cost-effective with lower drug prices or confirmation of a durable response without continued treatment.