Intensive Care Society's APACHE II study in Britain and Ireland--II: Outcome comparisons of intensive care units after adjustment for case mix by the American APACHE II method.

OBJECTIVES--To compare outcome between intensive care units in Britain and Ireland both before and after adjustment for case mix with the American APACHE II method and to validate the American APACHE II method in Britain and Ireland. DESIGN--Prospective, cohort study of consecutive admissions to intensive care units. SETTING--26 general intensive care units in Britain and Ireland. SUBJECTS--8796 admissions to the study intensive care units. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Death or survival at discharge from intensive care unit and hospital. RESULTS--At discharge from both intensive care unit and hospital there was a greater than twofold variation in crude mortality between the 26 units. After adjustment for case mix, variations in mortality were still apparent. For four intensive care units the observed numbers of deaths were significantly different from the number predicted by the American APACHE II equation. The overall goodness of fit, or predictive ability, of the APACHE II equation for the British and Irish data was good, being only slightly inferior to that obtained when the equation was tested on the data from which it had been derived. When patients were grouped by various factors such as age and diagnosis, the equation did not adjust across the subgroups in a uniform manner. CONCLUSIONS--The American APACHE II equation did not fit the British and Irish data. Use of the American equation could be of advantage or disadvantage to individual intensive care units, depending on the mix of patients treated.     

Study of special-care baby services in North-west Thames region.

During three months in 1975 admissions to 17 of the 21 special-care baby units in the North-west Thames region were analysed by birth weight and category of care. Of the 1,718 babies admitted, one-third needed only observation. Neonatal intensive care formed only a small proportion of the work load in most units. Considerable variation in the pattern of admissions was found. There was some evidence of concentration, about 100 babies being transferred for urgent medical or surgical reasons, and the work load of one unit suggested that it was serving as a referral centre. It is concluded that the quality of care given to some infants needing intensive care might be improved by greater concentration, and that some units should review their admission policies in order to prevent unnecessary postpartum separation of mother and baby.     

Why is the outcome of transient ischaemic attacks different in different groups of patients?

The outcomes of each of three large cohorts of patients with transient ischaemic attacks, which were studied in the same country at much the same time with the same methods, were compared and found to be quite different from each other. The differences in outcome were related not only to different strategies of treatment but also to differences in the prevalence and level of important prognostic factors (for example, case mix) and other factors such a the time delay from transient ischaemic attack to entry into the study and the play of chance. The implications for purchasers of health care are that they cannot rely solely on non-randomised comparisons of outcome of patients treated in competing units as a measure of the quality of care (which has only rather modest effects) without accounting for other factors that may influence outcome such as the nature of the illness, the case mix, observer bias, and the play of chance.     

Evaluating perinatal mortality rates: effects of referral and case mix.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate perinatal mortality rates as a method of auditing obstetric and neonatal care after account had been taken of transfer between hospitals during pregnancy and case mix. DESIGN--Case-control study of perinatal deaths. SETTING--Leicestershire health district. SUBJECTS--1179 singleton perinatal deaths and their selected live born controls among 114,362 singleton births to women whose place of residence was Leicestershire during 1978-87. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Crude perinatal mortality rates and rates adjusted for case mix. RESULTS--An estimated 11,701 of the 28,750 women booked for delivery in general practitioner maternity units were transferred to consultant units during their pregnancy. These 11,701 women had a high perinatal mortality rate (16.8/1000 deliveries). Perinatal mortality rates by place of booking showed little difference between general practitioner units (8.8/1000) and consultant units (9.3-11.7/1000). Perinatal mortality rates by place of delivery, however, showed substantial differences between general practitioner units (3.3/1000) and consultant units (9.4-12.6/1000) because of the selective referral of high risk women from general practitioner units to consultant units. Adjustment for risk factors made little difference to the rates except when the subset of deaths due to immaturity was adjusted for birth weight. CONCLUSION--Perinatal mortality rates should be adjusted for case mix and referral patterns to get a meaningful result. Even when this is done it is difficult to compare the effectiveness of hospital units with perinatal mortality rates because of the increasingly small subset of perinatal deaths that are amenable to medical intervention.     

Short term outcome in babies refused perinatal intensive care.

OBJECTIVE--To compare the mortality in babies refused admission to a regional perinatal centre with that in babies accepted for intensive care in the centre. DESIGN--Retrospective study with group comparison. SETTING--Based at the Royal Maternity Hospital, Belfast, with follow up of patients in all obstetric units in Northern Ireland. PATIENTS--Requests for transfer of 675 babies to the regional perinatal centre (prenatally and postnatally) were made from hospitals in Northern Ireland between January 1984 and December 1986. In all, 343 babies were refused admission to the centre, and complete data were available for 332 of them. These babies were either admitted to other neonatal intensive care units (261 babies) or remained in hospitals with only special care cots (71 babies). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Short term mortality. RESULTS--Seventy of the 332 babies refused admission to the centre died compared with 51 of the 333 who were admitted. Multivariate analysis based on a logistic model showed a non-significant increase in mortality among babies treated in other intensive care units compared with babies treated in the centre (relative odds 1.2; 95% confidence interval 0.7 to 1.9). The increase in mortality in babies who remained in a special care baby unit, however, was significant (3.5; 1.7 to 7.0). This increase was particularly significant in babies born at less than or equal to 32 weeks'' gestation and who weighed less than 1500 g (8.4; 2.5 to 28.1). CONCLUSIONS--The results of the study confirm the benefits of neonatal intensive care and its particular value in improving survival in babies of low birth weight. As the babies were refused admission to the regional perinatal centre because intensive care cots were not available this deficiency should be corrected.     

Effect of correcting outcome data for case mix: an example from stroke medicine.

OBJECTIVE--To show the influence of variations in case mix on clinical outcome indicators for patients admitted to hospital with acute stroke. DESIGN--"Before and after" cohort study, with prospective, consecutive identification of patients and prospective follow up; multiple logistic regression analyses to correct for case mix variations. SETTING--University teaching hospital. SUBJECTS--216 patients with stroke identified before the introduction of an organised stroke service, and 252 patients with stroke identified after its introduction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Case fatality at 30 days and 12 months; for survivors at 12 months, proportions of patients who were independent (according to the Oxford handicap scale) and of those living at home. RESULTS--Crude outcome data suggested that patients in the cohort identified after the introduction of the stroke service were significantly more likely to be alive, independent, and living at home than patients managed before the stroke service. After adjustment for age and sex these "improvements" were less impressive but still significant. After adjustment for many other possible prognostic indicators, however, the differences between the two groups for all four outcomes were non-significant, suggesting that the "improvements" may have been entirely due to differences in case mix between the two cohorts, rather than the new stroke service. CONCLUSIONS--Variations in case mix have a crucial influence on the interpretation of outcome data, and this is particularly important in non-randomised comparative studies. Such studies, comparing performance within and between different provider units, are likely to become increasingly common in the new reformed NHS. To allow meaningful interpretation, these studies must try to correct for case mix.     

Confidential inquiry into quality of care before admission to intensive care

Objective: To examine the prevalence, nature, causes, and consequences of suboptimal care before admission to intensive care units, and to suggest possible solutions. Design: Prospective confidential inquiry on the basis of structured interviews and questionnaires. Setting: A large district general hospital and a teaching hospital. Subjects: A cohort of 100 consecutive adult emergency admissions, 50 in each centre. Main outcome measures: Opinions of two external assessors on quality of care especially recognition, investigation, monitoring, and management of abnormalities of airway, breathing, and circulation, and oxygen therapy and monitoring. Results: Assessors agreed that 20 patients were well managed (group 1) and 54 patients received suboptimal care (group 2). Assessors disagreed on quality of management of 26 patients (group 3). The casemix and severity of illness, defined by the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II) score, were similar between centres and the three groups. In groups 1, 2, and 3 intensive care mortalities were 5 (25%), 26 (48%), and 6 (23%) respectively (P=0.04) (group 1 versus group 2, P=0.07). Hospital mortalities were 7 (35%), 30 (56%), and 8 (31%) (P=0.07) and standardised hospital mortality ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 1.23 (0.49 to 2.54), 1.4 (0.94 to 2.0), and 1.26 (0.54 to 2.48) respectively. Admission to intensive care was considered late in 37 (69%) patients in group 2. Overall, a minimum of 4.5% and a maximum of 41% of admissions were considered potentially avoidable. Suboptimal care contributed to morbidity or mortality in most instances. The main causes of suboptimal care were failure of organisation, lack of knowledge, failure to appreciate clinical urgency, lack of supervision, and failure to seek advice. Conclusions: The management of airway, breathing, and circulation, and oxygen therapy and monitoring in severely ill patients before admission to intensive care units may frequently be suboptimal. Major consequences may include increased morbidity and mortality and requirement for intensive care. Possible solutions include improved teaching, establishment of medical emergency teams, and widespread debate on the structure and process of acute care.

Key messages

• Suboptimal management of oxygen therapy, airway, breathing, circulation, and monitoring before admission to intensive care occurred in over half of a consecutive cohort of acute adult emergency patients. This may be associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and avoidable admissions to intensive care
• At least 39% of acute adult emergency patients were admitted to intensive care late in the clinical course of the illness
• Major causes of suboptimal care included failure of organisation, lack of knowledge, failure to appreciate clinical urgency, lack of supervision, and failure to seek advice
• A medical emergency team may be useful in responding pre-emptively to the clinical signs of life threatening dysfunction of airway, breathing, and circulation, rather than relying on a cardiac arrest team
• The structure and process of acute care and their importance require major re-evaluation and debate

     

Does HIV status influence the outcome of patients admitted to a surgical intensive care unit? A prospective double blind study.

OBJECTIVES: (a) To assess the impact of HIV status (HIV negative, HIV positive, AIDS) on the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care units for diseases unrelated to HIV; (b) to decide whether a positive test result for HIV should be a criterion for excluding patients from intensive care for diseases unrelated to HIV. DESIGN: A prospective double blind study of all admissions over six months. HIV status was determined in all patients by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), immunofluorescence assay, western blotting, and flow cytometry. The ethics committee considered the clinical implications of the study important enough to waive patients'' right to informed consent. Staff and patients were blinded to HIV results. On discharge patients could be advised of their HIV status if they wished. SETTING: A 16 bed surgical intensive care unit. SUBJECTS: All 267 men and 135 women admitted to the unit during the study period. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: APACHE II score (acute physiological, age, and chronic health evaluation), organ failure, septic shock, durations of intensive care unit and hospital stay, and intensive care unit and hospital mortality. RESULTS: No patient had AIDS. 52 patients were tested positive for HIV and 350 patients were tested negative. The two groups were similar in sex distribution but differed significantly in age, incidence of organ failure (37 (71%) v 171 (49%) patients), and incidence of septic shock (20 (38%) v 54 (15%)). After adjustment for age there were no differences in intensive care unit or hospital mortality or in the durations of stay in the intensive care unit or hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Morbidity was higher in HIV positive patients but there was no difference in mortality. In this patient population a positive HIV test result should not be a criterion for excluding a patient from intensive care.     

Origin of, and conservation units in, the Irish red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) population

Knowledge of genetic relationships among wildlife populations is fundamental to their conservation, particularly where translocations are concerned. This study involved a survey of mitochondrial DNA variation in the Irish red squirrel population. Our main aims were: (1) to determine whether the Irish red squirrel population is distinct from that found in Britain, given known translocations that took place from Britain in the 1800’s; and (2) whether inclusion of Irish data into a reanalysis of European red squirrel data could reveal patterns of postglacial spread in Ireland. We found evidence that the current Irish red squirrel population may be a mixture of native and translocated stock, and relationships between Irish and European haplotypes supported a number of colonisation events of the island. Although only one haplotype was common to both Ireland and Britain, it is probable that the most common haplotypes in Ireland are British introductions that have since become extinct in Britain. There was a significant regional genetic structure in Ireland (P < 0.001), as well as between all Irish and British regions. Although it is likely that the red squirrel will not be fundamental in tracing the colonisation of Ireland by mammals, the data demonstrated that individual regions within Ireland, as well as the Irish population as a whole, are distinct both from the British population and from each other and, therefore, these populations should be treated as separate Management Units (MU) in conservation strategies.     

Survey of intensive care of severely head injured patients in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVES--To study practice in intensive care of patients with severe head injury in neurosurgical referral centres in United Kingdom. DESIGN--Structured telephone interview of senior nursing staff in intensive care unit of adult neurosurgical referral centre. SETTING--39 intensive care units in hospitals that accepted acute head injuries for specialist neurosurgical management, identified from Medical Directory and information from professional bodies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Details of organisation and administration of intensive care and patterns of monitoring and treatment for patients admitted with severe head injury. RESULTS--Patients were managed in specialist neurosurgical intensive care units in 21 of the centres and in general intensive care units in 18. Their intensive care was coordinated by an anaesthetist in 25 units and by a neurosurgeon in 12. Annual case-load varied between units: 20 received > 100 patients, 12 received 50-100, and seven received 25-49. Monitoring and treatment varied considerably between centres. Invasive arterial pressure monitoring was used routinely in 36 units, but central venous pressure monitoring was routinely used in 24 and intracranial pressure was routinely monitored in only 19. Corticosteroids were used to treat intracranial hypertension in 19 units. Seventeen units routinely aimed for arterial carbon dioxide pressure of 3.3-4.0 kPa, and one unit still used severe hyperventilation to a pressure of < 3.3 kPa. CONCLUSION--The intensive care of patients with acute head injuries varied widely between the centres surveyed. Rationalisation of the intensive care of severe head injury with the production of widely accepted guidelines ought to improve the quality of care.     

Are readmissions avoidable?

OBJECTIVE--To examine the possible use of readmission rates as an outcome indicator of hospital inpatient care by investigating avoidability of unplanned readmissions within 28 days of discharge. DESIGN--Retrospective analysis of a stratified random sample of case notes of patients with an unplanned readmission between July 1987 and June 1988 by nine clinical assessors (263 assessments) and categorisation of the readmission as avoidable, unavoidable, or unclassifiable. SETTING--District in North East Thames region. 481 General medical, geriatric, and general surgical inpatients with a readmission at 0-6 days or 21-27 days after the first (index) discharge between July 1987 and June 1988 from whom 100 case notes were selected randomly and of which 74 were available for study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Assessment of readmissions as avoidable, unavoidable, unclassifiable, variability of assessment within cases and variability among assessors according to specialty and duration to readmission. RESULTS--General medical and geriatric readmissions and surgical readmissions at 0-6 days after discharge were more likely to be assessed as avoidable than those at 21-27 days (medical readmissions 32 v 6%, surgical admissions 49 v 19%). General surgical readmissions were significantly more frequently assessed as avoidable than general medical and geriatric readmissions. The extent of agreement between doctors varied, with general medical and geriatric readmissions at 21-27 days after first discharge causing the greatest variability of judgment. CONCLUSIONS--Differences were apparent in the extent of avoidability of readmissions in different groups of admissions. However, assessors rated only 49.3% of the group with the highest proportion of avoidable admissions (surgical readmissions at 0-6 days) as avoidable. The remainder were thought to be unavoidable except for 2%, which could not be classified. The use of readmission rates as an outcome indicator of hospital inpatient care should be avoided.     

Nestedness in island faunas: novel insights into island biogeography through butterfly community profiles of colonization ability and migration capacity

Aim To relate variation in the migration capacity and colonization ability of island communities to island geography and species island occupancy. Location Islands off mainland Britain and Ireland. Methods Mean migration (transfer) capacity and colonization (establishment) ability (ecological indices), indexed from 12 ecological variables for 56 butterfly species living on 103 islands, were related to species nestedness, island and mainland source geography and indices using linear regression models, RLQ analysis and fourth‐corner analysis. Random creation of faunas from source species, rank correlation and rank regression were used to examine differences between island and source ecological indices, and relationships to island geography. Results Island butterfly faunas are highly nested. The two ecological indices related closely to island occupancy, nestedness rank of species, island richness and geography. The key variables related to migration capacity were island area and isolation; for colonization ability they were area, isolation and longitude. Compared with colonization ability, migration capacity was found to correlate more strongly with island species occupancy and species richness. For island faunas, the means for both ecological indices decreased, and variation increased, with increasing island species richness. Mean colonization ability and migration capacity values were significantly higher for island faunas than for mainland source faunas, but these differences decreased with island latitude. Main conclusions The nested pattern of butterfly species on islands off mainland Britain and Ireland relates strongly to colonization ability but especially to migration capacity. Differences in colonization ability among species are most obvious for large, topographically varied islands. Generalists with abundant multiple resources and greater migration capacity are found on all islands, whereas specialists are restricted to large islands with varied and long‐lived biotopes, and islands close to shore. The inference is that source–sink dynamics dominate butterfly distributions on British and Irish islands; species are capable of dispersing to new areas, but, with the exception of large and northern islands, facilities (resources) for permanent colonization are limited. The pattern of colonization ability and migration capacity is likely to be repeated for mainland areas, where such indices should provide useful independent measures for assessing the conservation status of faunas within spatial units.     

Annual league tables of mortality in neonatal intensive care units: longitudinal study

Objective: To assess whether crude league tables of mortality and league tables of risk adjusted mortality accurately reflect the performance of hospitals. Design: Longitudinal study of mortality occurring in hospital. Setting: 9 neonatal intensive care units in the United Kingdom. Subjects: 2671 very low birth weight or preterm infants admitted to neonatal intensive care units between 1988 and 1994. Main outcome measures: Crude hospital mortality and hospital mortality adjusted using the clinical risk index for babies (CRIB) score. Results: Hospitals had wide and overlapping confidence intervals when ranked by mortality in annual league tables; this made it impossible to discriminate between hospitals reliably. In most years there was no significant difference between hospitals, only random variation. The apparent performance of individual hospitals fluctuated substantially from year to year. Conclusions: Annual league tables are not reliable indicators of performance or best practice; they do not reflect consistent differences between hospitals. Any action prompted by the annual league tables would have been equally likely to have been beneficial, detrimental, or irrelevant. Mortality should be compared between groups of hospitals using specific criteria—such as differences in the volume of patients, staffing policy, training of staff, or aspects of clinical practice—after adjusting for risk. This will produce more reliable estimates with narrower confidence intervals, and more reliable and rapid conclusions.

Key messages

• League tables are being used increasingly to evaluate hospital performance in the United Kingdom
• In annual league tables the rankings of nine neonatal intensive care units in different hospitals had wide and overlapping confidence intervals and their rankings fluctuated substantially over six years
• Annual league tables of hospital mortality were inherently unreliable for comparing hospital performance or for indicating best practices
• The UK government’s commitment to using annual league tables of outcomes such as mortality to monitor services and the spread of best practices should be reconsidered
• Prospective studies of risk adjusted outcome in hospitals grouped according to specific characteristics would provide better information and be a better use of resources

     

Cost effectiveness of treating primary care patients in accident and emergency: a comparison between general practitioners,senior house officers,and registrars.

OBJECTIVES--To compare outcome and costs of general practitioners, senior house officers, and registrars treating patients who attended accident and emergency department with problems assessed at triage as being of primary care type. DESIGN--Prospective intervention study which was later costed. SETTING--Inner city accident and emergency department in south east London. SUBJECTS--4641 patients presenting with primary care problems: 1702 were seen by general practitioners, 2382 by senior house officers, and 557 by registrars. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Satisfaction and outcome assessed in subsample of 565 patients 7-10 days after hospital attendance and aggregate costs of hospital care provided. RESULTS--Most patients expressed high levels of satisfaction with clinical assessment (430/562 (77%)), treatment (418/557 (75%)), and consulting doctor''s manner (434/492 (88%)). Patients'' reported outcome and use of general practice in 7-10 days after attendance were similar: 206/241 (85%), 224/263 (85%), and 52/59 (88%) of those seen by general practitioners, senior house officers, and registrars respectively were fully recovered or improving (chi2 = 0.35, P = 0.840), while 48/240 (20%), 48/268 (18%), and 12/57 (21%) respectively consulted a general practitioner or practice nurse (chi2 = 0.51, P = 0.774). Excluding costs of admissions, the average costs per case were 19.30 pounds, 17.97 pounds, and 11.70 pounds for senior house officers, registrars, and general practitioners respectively. With cost of admissions included, these costs were 58.25 pounds, 44.68 pounds, and 32.30 pounds respectively. CONCLUSION--Management of patients with primary care needs in accident and emergency department by general practitioners reduced costs with no apparent detrimental effect on outcome. These results support new role for general practitioners.     

Alternatives to hospital care: what are they and who should decide?

OBJECTIVE--To examine potential for alternatives to care in hospitals for acute admissions, and to compare the decisions about these alternatives made by clinicians with different backgrounds. DESIGN--Standardised tool was used to identify patients who could potentially be treated in an alternative form of care. Information about such patients was assessed by three panels of clinicians: general practitioners without experience of general practitioner beds, general practitioners with experience of general practitioner beds, and consultants. SETTING--One hospital for acute admissions in a rural area of the South and West region of England. SUBJECTS--Of 620 patients admitted to specialties of general medicine and care of the elderly, details of 112 were assessed by panels. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Proportion of hospitalised patients who could have received alternative care and identification of most appropriate alternative form of care. RESULTS--Both general practitioner panels estimated that between 51 and 89 of the hospitalised patients could have received alternative care (equivalent to 8-14% of all admissions). Consultants estimated that between 25 and 55 patients could have had alternative care (5.5-9% of all admissions). General practitioner bed and urgent outpatient appointment were the main alternatives chosen by all three panels. CONCLUSION--About 10% of admissions to general hospital might be suitable for alternative forms of care. Doctors with different backgrounds made similar overall assessments of most appropriate forms of care.     

Implications of prognostic pessimism in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma admitted to intensive care in the UK within the COPD and asthma outcome study (CAOS): multicentre observational cohort study

Objective To determine whether clinicians'' prognoses in patients with severe acute exacerbations of obstructive lung disease admitted to intensive care match observed outcomes in terms of survival.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting 92 intensive care units and three respiratory high dependency units in the United Kingdom.Participants 832 patients aged 45 years and older with breathlessness, respiratory failure, or change in mental status because of an exacerbation of COPD, asthma, or a combination of the two.Main outcome measures Outcome predicted by clinicians. Observed survival at 180 days. Results 517 patients (62%) survived to 180 days. Clinicians'' prognoses were pessimistic, with a mean predicted survival of 49% at 180 days. For the fifth of patients with the poorest prognosis according to the clinician, the predicted survival rate was 10% and the actual rate was 40%. Information from a database covering 74% of intensive care units in the UK suggested no material difference between units that participated and those that did not. Patients recruited were similar to those not recruited in the same units.Conclusions Because decisions on whether to admit patients with COPD or asthma to intensive care for intubation depend on clinicians'' prognoses, some patients who might otherwise survive are probably being denied admission because of unwarranted prognostic pessimism.     

Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of selective decontamination of the digestive tract. Selective Decontamination of the Digestive Tract Trialists' Collaborative Group.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the clinical benefits of selective decontamination of the digestive tract in patients treated in intensive care units. DESIGN--Meta-analysis of 22 randomised trials that compared different combinations of oral non-absorbable antibiotics, with or without a systemic component, with no treatment in controls. SUBJECTS--4142 patients seen in general and specialised intensive care units around the world. 2047 received some form of antibiotic treatment, the remainder no prophylaxis. DATA ANALYSIS--Each trial was reviewed through direct contact with study investigators. Data collected were: the randomisation procedure, number of patients, number excluded from the analysis, and numbers of respiratory tract infections and deaths. Data were combined according to an intention to treat analysis with the Mantel-Haenszel-Peto method. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Respiratory tract infections and total mortality. RESULTS--Selective decontamination of the digestive tract significantly reduced respiratory tract infections (odds ratio 0.37; 95% confidence interval 0.31 to 0.43). The value of the common odds ratio for total mortality (0.90; 0.79 to 1.04) suggested at best a moderate treatment effect, reaching statistical significance only when the subgroup of trials of topical and systemic treatment combined was considered separately (odds ratio 0.80; 0.67 to 0.97). No firm conclusions could be drawn owing to large variations in patient mix and severity within and between trials. CONCLUSIONS--The findings strongly indicate that selective decontamination significantly reduces infection related morbidity in patients receiving intensive care. They also highlight why definite conclusions about the effect of prophylaxis on mortality cannot be drawn despite the large number of trials available. Based on the most favourable results obtained by pooling data from trials in which combined topical and systemic treatment was used it may be estimated that 6 (range 5-9) and 23 (13-139) patients would need to be treated to prevent one respiratory tract infection and one death respectively.     

Spatial and temporal variation in population trends in a long‐distance migratory bird

Aim Over the past three decades, evidence has been growing that many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird populations have suffered sustained and severe declines. As causes of these declines exist across both the breeding and non‐breeding season, identifying potential drivers of population change is complex. In order to explore the roles of changes in regional and local environmental conditions on population change, we examine spatial and temporal variation in population trajectories of one of Europe’s most abundant Afro‐Palaearctic summer migrants, the willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus. Location Britain and Ireland. Methods We use national survey data from Britain and Ireland (BBS: BTO/RSPB/JNCC Breeding Bird Survey and CBS: BWI/NPWS/Heritage Council Countryside Breeding Survey) from 1994 to 2006 to model the spatial and temporal variation in willow warbler population trends. Results Across Britain and Ireland, population trends follow a gradient from sharp declines in the south and east of England to shallow declines and/or slight increases in parts of north and west England, across Scotland and Ireland. Decreasing the spatial scale of analysis reveals variation in both the rate and spatial extent of population change within central England and the majority of Scotland. The rates of population change also vary temporally; declines in the south of England are shallower now than at the start of the time series, whereas populations further north in Britain have undergone periods of increase and decline. Main conclusion These patterns suggest that regional‐scale drivers, such as changing climatic conditions, and local‐scale processes, such as habitat change, are interacting to produce spatially variable population trends. We discuss the potential mechanisms underlying these interactions and the challenges in addressing such changes at scales relevant to migratory species.     

Candidemia in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit: What’s Different from Candidemia in Adults?

Candida species bloodstream infections have been associated with high morbidity and mortality, especially in patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). The incidence of such infections is rising because of malignancies, prolonged PICU stay, and the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics. Although Candida albicans remains the most frequently isolated species, non-albicans Candida species have shown an increased frequency. Treatment with fluconazole or an echinocandin should be considered in patients at high risk for candidemia or as initial treatment for non-neutropenic patients with candidemia, in addition to the removal of intravascular catheters. Treatment with a lipid formulation of amphotericin B or caspofungin is suggested for neutropenic patients. Early diagnosis, prompt therapy, and prevention are the cornerstones of controlling infection and improving outcome. Although there are some differences between children and adults with candidemia, especially in antifungal drug therapy and outcome, in general the incidence, risk factors, species variation, diagnostic methods, and management are similar.     

Stoats (Mustela erminea) provide evidence of natural overland colonization of Ireland

The current Irish biota has controversial origins. Ireland was largely covered by ice at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and may not have had land connections to continental Europe and Britain thereafter. Given the potential difficulty for terrestrial species to colonize Ireland except by human introduction, we investigated the stoat (Mustela erminea) as a possible cold-tolerant model species for natural colonization of Ireland at the LGM itself. The stoat currently lives in Ireland and Britain and across much of the Holarctic region including the high Arctic. We studied mitochondrial DNA variation (1771 bp) over the whole geographical range of the stoat (186 individuals and 142 localities), but with particular emphasis on the British Isles and continental Europe. Irish stoats showed considerably greater nucleotide and haplotype diversity than those in Britain. Bayesian dating is consistent with an LGM colonization of Ireland and suggests that Britain was colonized later. This later colonization probably reflects a replacement event, which can explain why Irish and British stoats belong to different mitochondrial lineages as well as different morphologically defined subspecies. The molecular data strongly indicate that stoats colonized Ireland naturally and that their genetic variability reflects accumulation of mutations during a population expansion on the island.