Influence of sex,age, body mass index,and smoking on alcohol intake and mortality.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the association between self reported alcohol intake and subsequent mortality from all causes and if the effect of alcohol intake on the risk of death is modified by sex, age, body mass index, and smoking. DESIGN--Prospective population study with baseline assessment of alcohol and tobacco consumption and body mass index, and 10-12 years'' follow up of mortality. SETTING--Copenhagen city heart study, Denmark. SUBJECTS--7234 women and 6051 men aged 30-79 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Number and time of deaths from 1976 to 1988. RESULTS--A total of 2229 people died, 1398 being men. A U shaped curve described the relation between alcohol intake and mortality. The lowest risk was observed at one to six alcoholic beverages a week (relative risk set at 1). Abstainers had a relative risk of 1.37 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.56) whereas those drinking more than 70 beverages a week had a relative risk of 2.29 (1.75 to 3.00). Among the drinkers, the risk was significantly increased only among those drinking more than 42 beverages a week. Sex, age, body mass index, and smoking did not significantly modify the risk function. The risk among heavy drinkers was slightly reduced when smoking was controlled for. The risk function was similar in the first and second period of six years of observation. CONCLUSION--Alcohol intake showed a U shaped relation to mortality with the nadir at one to six beverages a week. The risk function was not modified by sex, age, body mass index, or smoking and remained stable over 12 years.     

Life expectancy in men who have never smoked and those who have smoked continuously: 15 year follow up of large cohort of middle aged British men.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the life expectancy in a representative sample of men who have never smoked and of those who have smoked all their adult lives. DESIGN: 15 year follow up of a large representative cohort of British men in the British regional heart study and use of national mortality statistics for 1992. SUBJECTS: 7735 middle aged British men aged 40-59 at the time of screening (between 1978 and 1980). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from all causes and from smoking related causes. RESULTS: 1624 men had never smoked at the time of screening and did not take up smoking during the study. 127 of them died during follow up. 3151 men began smoking before they were 30 and were still smoking at the time of screening. Of these, 751 had stopped smoking five years after screening; they were excluded from the analysis five years after the date they had stopped. 560 of the lifelong smokers died during follow up. When study estimates were combined with those from national mortality statistics for men aged 20-40, only an estimated 42% (95% confidence interval 36% to 50%) of lifelong smokers alive at the age of 20 would be alive at 73, compared with 78% (74% to 82%) of lifelong non-smokers. CONCLUSION: These estimates present the effects of smoking on mortality in a way that is easily communicated to patients and the general public in health promotion initiatives.     

Non-fasting serum triglyceride concentration and mortality from coronary heart disease and any cause in middle aged Norwegian women.

OBJECTIVE--To study the association between non-fasting serum triglyceride concentrations and mortality in women from coronary and cardiovascular disease and all causes. DESIGN--Follow up by ambulatory teams of men and women who underwent cardiovascular screening for a mean of 14.6 years. SETTING--National health screening service in Norway. SUBJECTS--25,058 men and 24,535 women aged 35-49 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Predictive value of non-fasting serum triglyceride concentrations. RESULTS--At initial screening total serum cholesterol concentration, serum triglyceride concentration, blood pressure, height, and weight were measured, and self reported information about smoking habits, physical activity, and time since last meal were recorded. During subsequent follow up 108 women died from coronary heart disease, 238 from cardiovascular diseases, and 931 from all causes. In women mortality increased steadily with increasing triglyceride concentration for all three causes of death. With the proportional hazards model and adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol concentration, time since last meal, and number of cigarettes a day the relative risk between triglyceride concentration > or = 3.5 mmol/l and < 1.5 mmol/l was 4.7 (95% confidence interval 2.5 to 8.9) for deaths from coronary heart disease, 3.0 (1.9 to 4.8) for deaths from cardiovascular disease, 2.3 (1.8 to 2.9) for total deaths in all women. CONCLUSIONS--A raised non-fasting concentration of triglycerides is an independent risk factor for mortality from coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease, and any cause mortality among middle aged Norwegian women in contrast to what is seen in men.     

Mortality associated with moderate intakes of wine,beer, or spirits.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the association between intake of different types of alcoholic drinks and mortality. DESIGN--Prospective population study with baseline assessment of alcohol intake, smoking habit, income, education, and body mass index, and 10-12 years'' follow up of mortality. SETTING--Copenhagen city heart study, Denmark. SUBJECTS--6051 men and 7234 women aged 30-70 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Number and time of cause-specific deaths from 1976 to 1988. RESULTS--The risk of dying steadily decreased with an increasing intake of wine--from a relative risk of 1.00 for the subjects who never drank wine to 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.81) for those who drank three to five glasses a day. Intake of neither beer nor spirits, however, was associated with reduced risk. For spirits intake the relative risk of dying increased from 1.00 for those who never drank to 1.34 (1.05 to 1.71) for those with an intake of three to five drinks a day. The effects of the three types of alcoholic drinks seemed to be independent of each other, and no significant interactions existed with sex, age, education, income, smoking, or body mass index. Wine drinking showed the same relation to risk of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease as to risk of death from all causes. CONCLUSION--Low to moderate intake of wine is associated with lower mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and other causes. Similar intake of spirits implied an increased risk, while beer drinking did not affect mortality.     

Dietary pattern and 20 year mortality in elderly men in Finland,Italy, and The Netherlands: longitudinal cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of dietary pattern and mortality in international data. DESIGN: Cohort study with 20 years'' follow up of mortality. SETTING: Five cohorts in Finland, the Netherlands, and Italy. SUBJECTS: Population based random sample of 3045 men aged 50-70 years in 1970. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Food intake was estimated using a cross check dietary history. In this dietary survey method, the usual food consumption pattern in the 6-12 months is estimated. A healthy diet indicator was calculated for the dietary pattern, using the World Health Organisation''s guidelines for the prevention of chronic diseases. Vital status was verified after 20 years of follow up, and death rates were calculated. RESULTS: Dietary intake varied greatly in 1970 between the three countries. In Finland and the Netherlands the intake of saturated fatty acids and cholesterol was high and the intake of alcohol was low; in Italy the opposite was observed. In total 1796 men (59%) died during 20 years of follow up. The healthy diet indicator was inversely associated with mortality (P for trend < 0.05). After adjustment for age, smoking, and alcohol consumption, the relative risk in the group with the healthiest diet indicator compared with the group with the least healthy was 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.98). Estimated relative risks were essentially similar within each country. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary intake of men aged 50-70 is associated with a 20 year, all cause mortality in different cultures. The healthy diet indicator is useful in evaluating the relation of mortality to dietary patterns.     

Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on coronary heart disease and mortality among middle aged diabetic men: a general population study.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the effect of cardiovascular risk factors on coronary heart disease and all cause mortality in middle aged diabetic men. DESIGN--Prospective population study based on data collected from second screening (from 1974 to 1977) in the multifactor primary prevention trial and follow up until March 1983. SETTING--Gothenburg, Sweden. SUBJECTS--6897 Men aged 51 to 59, of whom 232 were self reported diabetics and 6665 were non-diabetic; none had a history of myocardial infarction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidences of coronary heart disease and mortality from all causes. RESULTS--Diabetic men with a serum cholesterol concentration greater than 7.3 mmol/l had a significantly higher incidence of coronary heart disease during follow up than those with a concentration less than or equal to 5.5 mmol/l (28.3% v 5.4%; p = 0.020); corresponding figures for non-diabetic men were 9.4% and 2.4% respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analyses serum cholesterol concentration and smoking habit were independent predictors of coronary heart disease (odds ratio serum cholesterol concentration 6.1 (95% confidence interval 2.1 to 17.6) current smoking 2.9 (1.1 to 7.5)) and of all cause mortality (3.2 (1.3 to 7.9), 3.0 (1.4 to 6.7) respectively) in diabetic men whereas systolic blood pressure, body mass index, family history, marital state, and alcohol abuse were not. Low occupational class was an independent predictor of mortality (2.4 (1.01 to 5.5)), but not of coronary heart disease, in diabetic men. CONCLUSIONS--Middle aged diabetic men with hypercholesterolaemia are at very high risk of developing coronary heart disease and of dying prematurely. Lowering serum cholesterol concentration in such subjects seems to be warranted.     

Contribution of deaths related to alcohol use of socioeconomic variation in mortality: register based follow up study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the contribution of excessive alcohol use to socioeconomic variation in mortality among men and women in Finland. DESIGN: Register based follow up study. SUBJECTS: The population covered by the 1985 and 1990 censuses, aged > or = 20 in the follow up period 1987-93. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total mortality and alcohol related mortality from all causes, from diseases, and from accidents and violence according to socioeconomic position. The excess mortality among other classes compared with upper non-manual employees and differences in life expectancy between the classes were used to measure mortality differentials. RESULTS: Alcohol related mortality constituted 11% of all mortality among men aged > or = 20 and 2% among women and was higher among manual workers than among other classes. It accounted for 14% of the excess all cause mortality among manual workers over upper non-manual employees among men and 4% among women and for 24% and 9% of the differences in life expectancy, respectively. Half of the excess mortality from accidents and violence among male manual workers and 38% among female manual workers was accounted for by alcohol related deaths, whereas in diseases the role of alcohol was modest. The contribution of alcohol related deaths to relative mortality differentials weakened with age. CONCLUSIONS: Class differentials in alcohol related mortality are an important factor in the socioeconomic mortality differentials in Finland, especially among men, among younger age groups, and in mortality from accidents and violence.     

Mortality in relation to smoking: 40 years' observations on male British doctors.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the hazards associated with long term use of tobacco. DESIGN--Prospective study of mortality in relation to smoking habits assessed in 1951 and again from time to time thereafter, with causes sought of deaths over 40 years (to 1991). Continuation of a study that was last reported after 20 years'' follow up (1951-71). SUBJECTS--34,439 British male doctors who replied to a postal questionnaire in 1951, of whom 10,000 had died during the first 20 years and another 10,000 have died during the second 20 years. RESULTS--Excess mortality associated with smoking was about twice as extreme during the second half of the study as it had been during the first half. The death rate ratios during 1971-91 (comparing continuing cigarette smokers with life-long non-smokers) were approximately threefold at ages 45-64 and twofold at ages 65-84. The excess mortality was chiefly from diseases that can be caused by smoking. Positive associations with smoking were confirmed for death from cancers of the mouth, oesophagus, pharynx, larynx, lung, pancreas, and bladder; from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and other respiratory diseases; from vascular diseases; from peptic ulcer; and (perhaps because of confounding by personality and alcohol use) from cirrhosis, suicide, and poisoning. A negative association was confirmed with death from Parkinson''s disease. Those who stopped smoking before middle age subsequently avoided almost all of the excess risk that they would otherwise have suffered, but even those who stopped smoking in middle age were subsequently at substantially less risk than those who continued to smoke. CONCLUSION--Results from the first 20 years of this study, and of other studies at that time, substantially underestimated the hazards of long term use of tobacco. It now seems that about half of all regular cigarette smokers will eventually be killed by their habit.     

Risk factors for early death in non-insulin dependent diabetes and men with known glucose tolerance status.

OBJECTIVE--To identify risk factors for all cause mortality according to glucose tolerance status. DESIGN--Cohort study with an average 15.6 years'' follow up. SETTING--Paris, France. SUBJECTS--7166 working men aged 44-55 in 1968-72 in the Paris prospective study cohort, with non-insulin dependent diabetes or known result of two hour 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Risk factors for death from all causes. RESULTS--128 men were known to be diabetic, 180 had diabetes diagnosed, and 697 had impaired glucose tolerance diagnosed. Compared with normoglycaemic men the relative risks of death in these groups were 2.0 (95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.0), 2.7 (2.0 to 3.6), and 1.6 (1.3 to 2.0) respectively. Obesity, smoking, high blood pressure, and high non-esterified fatty acid concentration were risk factors for death in all subjects and were unaffected by glucose tolerance. The risks for fasting and two hour insulin concentrations and mean corpuscular volume were two times higher in known diabetic men than in men not known to be diabetic. Central obesity was significant only in men not known to be diabetic (1.6 (1.4 to 1.9)). In known diabetic men a two hour glucose concentration higher than 11.1 mmol/l carried a relative risk of death of 3.8 (1.4 to 9.4). CONCLUSIONS--Diabetic men have similar risk factors for early mortality to other men but are at higher risk from hyperinsulinaemia, hyperglycaemia, and high mean corpuscular volume.     

Does plasma cholesterol concentration predict mortality from coronary heart disease in elderly people? 18 year follow up in Whitehall study.

OBJECTIVE--To explore the extent to which the relation between plasma cholesterol concentration and risk of death from coronary heart disease in men persists into old age. DESIGN--18 year follow up of male Whitehall civil servants. Plasma cholesterol concentrations and other risk factors were determined at first examination in 1967-9 when they were aged 40-69. Death of men up to 31 January 1987 was recorded. SUBJECTS--18,296 male civil servants, 4155 of whom died during follow up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cause and age of death. Cholesterol concentration in 1967-9 and number of years elapsed between testing and death. RESULTS--1676 men died of coronary heart disease. The mean cholesterol concentration in these men was 0.32 mmol/l higher than that in all other men (95% confidence interval 0.26 to 0.37 mmol/l). This difference in cholesterol concentrations fell 0.15 mmol/l with every 10 years'' increase in age at screening. The risk of raised cholesterol concentration fell with age at death. Compared with other men cholesterol concentration in those who died of coronary heart disease was 0.44 mmol/l higher in those who died aged less than 60 and 0.26 mmol/l higher in those aged 60-79 (p = 0.03). For a given age at death the longer the gap between cholesterol measurement and death the more predictive the cholesterol concentration, both for coronary heart disease and all cause mortality (trend test p = 0.06 and 0.03 respectively). CONCLUSION--Reducing plasma cholesterol concentrations in middle age may influence the risk of death from coronary heart disease in old age.     

Plasma cholesterol,coronary heart disease,and cancer in the Renfrew and Paisley survey.

The relation between plasma cholesterol concentration and mortality from coronary heart disease, incidence of and mortality from cancer, and all cause mortality was studied in a general population aged 45-64 living in the west of Scotland. Seven thousand men (yielding 653 deaths from coronary heart disease, 630 new cases of cancer, and 463 deaths from cancer) and 8262 women (322 deaths from coronary heart disease, 554 new cases of cancer, and 395 deaths from cancer) were examined initially in 1972-6 and followed up for an average of 12 years. All cause mortality was not related to plasma cholesterol concentration. This was largely a consequence of a positive relation between cholesterol values and mortality from coronary heart disease being balanced by inverse relations between cholesterol and cancer and between cholesterol and other causes of death. These changes were highly significant for coronary heart disease and cancer in men and significant for coronary heart disease and other causes of death in women. The inverse association between cholesterol concentration and cancer in men was strongest for lung cancer, was not merely a function of the age at which a subject died, was present for the incidence of cancer as well as mortality from cancer, and persisted when new cases or deaths occurring within the first four years of follow up were excluded from the analysis.     

Mortality from unintentional injuries in California, 1985.

In 1985 unintentional injuries were the fourth leading cause of death among California residents, causing 10,380 deaths. They were the leading cause of potential life lost, accounting for 278,109 years lost. This was more than twice the number of years lost due to heart disease and 1 1/2 times the number lost due to cancer. Motor vehicle traffic accidents were the leading cause of unintentional injury deaths, accounting for half (5,158) the deaths. The next two leading causes were poisoning (especially for men aged 25 to 44 years) and falls (especially among persons aged 75 and older). Drowning was second to motor vehicle accidents as a cause of death in children aged 1 to 14 years. California''s age-adjusted injury mortality rates in 1985 were lower in coastal and urban counties than in inland and rural counties, and these rates were generally lower in counties having organized systems of trauma care.     

Body weight: implications for the prevention of coronary heart disease,stroke, and diabetes mellitus in a cohort study of middle aged men.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the body mass index associated with the lowest morbidity and mortality. DESIGN: Prospective study of a male cohort. SETTING: One general practice in each of 24 British towns. SUBJECTS: 7735 men aged 40-59 years at screening. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause death rate, heart attacks, and stroke (fatal and non-fatal) and development of diabetes, or any of these outcomes (combined end point) over an average follow up of 14.8 years. RESULTS: There were 1271 deaths from all causes, 974 heart attacks, 290 strokes, and 245 new cases of diabetes mellitus. All cause mortality was increased only in men with a body mass index (kg/m2) < 20 and in men with an index > or = 30. However, risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack, and diabetes increased progressively from an index of < 20 even after age, smoking, social class, alcohol consumption, and physical activity were adjusted for. For the combined end point the lowest risks were seen for an index of 20.0-23.9. In never smokers and former smokers, deaths from any cause rose progressively from an index of 20.0-21.9 and for the combined end point, from 20.0-23.9. Age adjusted levels of a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors rose or fell progressively from an index < 20. CONCLUSION: A healthy body mass index in these middle aged British men seems to be about 22.     

Mortality associated with HIV-1 infection over five years in a rural Ugandan population: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of HIV-1 infection on mortality over five years in a rural Ugandan population. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study followed up annually by a house to house census and medical survey. SETTING: Rural population in south west Uganda. SUBJECTS: About 10,000 people from 15 villages who were enrolled in 1989-90 or later. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of deaths from all causes, death rates, mortality fraction attributable to HIV-1 infection. RESULTS: Of 9777 people resident in the study area in 1989-90, 8833 (90%) had an unambiguous result on testing for HIV-1 antibody; throughout the period of follow up adult seroprevalence was about 8%. During 35,083 person years of follow up, 459 deaths occurred, 273 in seronegative subjects and 186 in seropositive subjects, corresponding to standardised death rates of 8.1 and 129.3 per 1000 person years. Standardised death rates for adults were 10.4 (95% confidence interval 9.0 to 11.8) and 114.0 (93.2 to 134.8) per 1000 person years respectively. The mortality fraction attributable to HIV-1 infection was 41% for adults and was in excess of 70% for men aged 25-44 and women aged 20-44 years. Median survival from time of enrollment was less than three years in subjects aged 55 years or more who were infected with HIV-1. Life expectancy from birth in the total population resident at any time was estimated to be 42.5 years (41.4 years in men; 43.5 years in women), which compares with 58.3 years (56.5 years in men; 60.5 years in women) in people known to be seronegative. CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm that in a rural African population HIV-1 infection is associated with high death rates and a substantial reduction in life expectancy.     

Coronary heart disease and mortality in middle aged men from different occupational classes in Sweden.

In the Gothenburg primary prevention study 7083 middle aged men were classified into five categories by occupational state. A retrospective analysis of the data showed that low occupational class was associated with slight increases in smoking rates, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol concentration, body mass index, and heart rate. Alcohol abuse was strongly associated with low occupational class. After a mean of 11.8 years'' follow up the incidence of coronary heart disease was found to be strongly and inversely related to occupational class. For death from coronary heart disease this association fell just below significance when other risk factors were taken into account, but the inverse association between non-fatal myocardial infarction and occupational class persisted even in multivariate analysis. A weak but independent inverse relation was found between occupational class and fatal cancer. Mortality from all causes in the lowest occupational class was 12% compared with 6% in the highest class, and this difference could only partly be explained by other factors. After 10 years a sub-sample of the men were examined again. Risk factors had decreased in all occupational classes, but the changes in risk were not associated with occupational class. Social class, defined by occupation, in Sweden is clearly related to the incidence of coronary heart disease.     

Follow up study of moderate alcohol intake and mortality among middle aged men in Shanghai,China.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of death associated with various patterns of alcohol intake. DESIGN: Prospective study of mortality in relation to alcohol consumption at recruitment, with active annual follow up. SETTING: Four small, geographically defined communities in Shanghai, China. SUBJECTS: 18,244 men aged 45-64 years enrolled in a prospective study of diet and cancer during January 1986 to September 1989. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All cause mortality. RESULTS: By 28 February 1995, 1198 deaths (including 498 from cancer, 269 from stroke, and 104 from ischaemic heart disease) had been identified. Compared with lifelong non-drinkers, those who consumed 1-14 drinks a week had a 19% reduction in overall mortality (relative risk 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.94) after age, level of education, and cigarette smoking were adjusted for. This protective effect was not restricted to any specific type of alcoholic drink. Although light to moderate drinking (28 or fewer drinks per week) was associated with a 36% reduction in death from ischaemic heart disease (0.64; 0.41 to 0.998), it had no effect on death from stroke, which is the leading cause of death in this population. As expected, heavy drinking (29 or more drinks per week) was significantly associated with increased risks of death from cancer of the upper aerodigestive tract, hepatic cirrhosis, and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Regular consumption of small amounts of alcohol is associated with lower overall mortality including death from ischaemic heart disease in middle aged Chinese men. The type of alcoholic drink does not affect this association.     

Lifetime socioeconomic position and mortality: prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the influence of socioeconomic position over a lifetime on risk factors for cardiovascular disease, on morbidity, and on mortality from various causes. DESIGN: Prospective observational study with 21 years of follow up. Social class was determined as manual or non-manual at three stages of participants'' lives: from the social class of their father''s job, the social class of their first job, and the social class of their job at the time of screening. A cumulative social class indicator was constructed, ranging from non-manual social class at all three stages of life to manual social class at all three stages. SETTING: 27 workplaces in the west of Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 5766 men aged 35-64 at the time of examination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and level of risk factors for cardiovascular disease; morbidity; and mortality from broad causes of death. RESULTS: From non-manual social class locations at all three life stages to manual at all stages there were strong positive trends for blood pressure, body mass index, current cigarette smoking, angina, and bronchitis. Inverse trends were seen for height, cholesterol concentration, lung function, and being an ex-smoker. 1580 men died during follow up. Age adjusted relative death rates in comparison with the men of non-manual social class locations at all three stages of life were 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.56) in men of two non-manual and one manual social class; 1.45 (1.21 to 1.73) in men of two manual and one non-manual social class; and 1.71 (1.46 to 2.01) in men of manual social class at all three stages. Mortality from cardiovascular disease showed a similar graded association with cumulative social class. Mortality from cancer was mainly raised among men of manual social class at all three stages. Adjustment for a wide range of risk factors caused little attenuation in the association of cumulative social class with mortality from all causes and from cardiovascular disease; greater attenuation was seen in the association with mortality from non-cardiovascular, non-cancer disease. Fathers having a manual [corrected] occupation was strongly associated with mortality from cardiovascular disease: relative rate 1.41 (1.15 to 1.72). Participants'' social class at the time of screening was more strongly associated than the other social class indicators with mortality from cancer and from non-cardiovascular, non-cancer causes. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic factors acting over the lifetime affect health and risk of premature death. The relative importance of influences at different stages varies for the cause of death. Studies with data on socioeconomic circumstances at only one stage of life are inadequate for fully elucidating the contribution of socioeconomic factors to health and mortality risk.     

Socioeconomic Factors and All Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality among Older People in Latin America,India, and China: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Even in low and middle income countries most deaths occur in older adults. In Europe, the effects of better education and home ownership upon mortality seem to persist into old age, but these effects may not generalise to LMICs. Reliable data on causes and determinants of mortality are lacking.

Methods and Findings

The vital status of 12,373 people aged 65 y and over was determined 3–5 y after baseline survey in sites in Latin America, India, and China. We report crude and standardised mortality rates, standardized mortality ratios comparing mortality experience with that in the United States, and estimated associations with socioeconomic factors using Cox''s proportional hazards regression. Cause-specific mortality fractions were estimated using the InterVA algorithm. Crude mortality rates varied from 27.3 to 70.0 per 1,000 person-years, a 3-fold variation persisting after standardisation for demographic and economic factors. Compared with the US, mortality was much higher in urban India and rural China, much lower in Peru, Venezuela, and urban Mexico, and similar in other sites. Mortality rates were higher among men, and increased with age. Adjusting for these effects, it was found that education, occupational attainment, assets, and pension receipt were all inversely associated with mortality, and food insecurity positively associated. Mutually adjusted, only education remained protective (pooled hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.98). Most deaths occurred at home, but, except in India, most individuals received medical attention during their final illness. Chronic diseases were the main causes of death, together with tuberculosis and liver disease, with stroke the leading cause in nearly all sites.

Conclusions

Education seems to have an important latent effect on mortality into late life. However, compositional differences in socioeconomic position do not explain differences in mortality between sites. Social protection for older people, and the effectiveness of health systems in preventing and treating chronic disease, may be as important as economic and human development. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Comparison of therapeutic effects and mortality data of levodopa and levodopa combined with selegiline in patients with early,mild Parkinson's disease. Parkinson's Disease Research Group of the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE: To compare effectiveness of levodopa and levodopa combined with selegiline in treating early, mild Parkinson''s disease. DESIGN: Open, long term, prospective randomised trial. SETTING: 93 hospitals throughout United Kingdom. SUBJECTS: 520 patients with early Parkinson''s disease who were not receiving dopaminergic treatment. INTERVENTIONS: Treatment with levodopa and dopa decarboxylase inhibitor (arm 1) or levodopa and decarboxylase inhibitor in combination with selegiline (arm 2). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Assessments of serial disability, frequency and severity of adverse events, and deaths from all causes. RESULTS: After average of 5-6 years'' follow up, mortality ratio in arm 2 compared with arm 1 was 1.57 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 2.30), and difference in survival between the two arms was significant (log rank test, P = 0.015). Hazard ratio adjusted for age and sex was 1.49 (1.02 to 2.16), and after adjustment for other baseline factors it increased to 1.57 (1.07 to 2.31). Patients in arm 1 had slightly worse disability scores than those in arm 2, but differences were not significant. Functionally disabling peak dose dyskinesias and on/off fluctuations were more frequent in arm 2 than arm 1. During the trial the dose of levodopa required to produce optimum motor control steadily increased in arm 1 (median daily dose 375 mg at 1 year and 625 mg at 4 years), but median dose in arm 2 did not change (375 mg). CONCLUSIONS: Levodopa in combination with selegiline seemed to confer no clinical benefit over levodopa alone in treating early, mild Parkinson''s disease. Moreover mortality was significantly higher with combination treatment, casting doubts on its chronic use in Parkinson''s disease.