Modeling the trophic effects of marine protected area zoning policies: A case study

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly being recognized as an alternative management tool for conserving marine resources and ecosystems. By integrating organism dispersal rates, ecosystem interactions and fishing effort dynamics, ECOSPACE, a spatially explicit ecosystem-based modeling tool, allowed us to compare the ecological consequences of alternative MPA zoning policies within the proposed Gwaii Haanas National Marine Conservation Area, located off the west coast of British Columbia, Canada. The desired effects of MPAs include higher fishery yields, the conservation of biodiversity, and/or the preservation of intact ecosystems. However, ECOSPACE predicts that when MPAs are small, species interactions and movements may make these objectives difficult to achieve. ECOSPACE suggests that the effects of MPAs are reduced at their boundaries where fishing effort is predicted to concentrate. Furthermore, top predators may become more abundant within MPAs, which could lead to a depression of their prey species and a subsequent increase of species at even lower trophic levels. Trophic cascade patterns and density gradients across boundaries are nontrivial departures from our simple expectations of how MPAs protect areas and will force us to reconsider what constitutes effective conservation. Our ECOSPACE model indicates that the establishment of multi-use buffer zones may help alleviate these realistic but worrisome ecological predictions. When coupled with an overall reduction in harvest pressure, ECOSPACE suggests that a MPA with a large core `no-take' zone and large buffer will result in the greatest increase in organism biomass. The use of marine zoning may be an effective management tactic to reduce social conflict and conserve marine ecosystems.     

基于CVM的山东海洋保护区生态系统多样性维持服务价值评估

选取山东济南(代表内陆城市)和青岛(代表沿海城市),基于条件价值法(CVM),对两市城镇居民进行问卷调查,通过建立支付意愿多元线性回归方程用以评估山东省城镇居民对维持山东88个海洋保护区永续存在的支付意愿,进而估算山东海洋保护区的生态系统多样性维持服务价值。研究发现,人均年收入较高,支付意愿较大;文化程度较低,支付意愿较小;男性比女性的支付意愿高;内陆城镇居民对于海洋保护区的人均支付意愿为102.15元,比沿海城镇居民的支付意愿高23.05元。2014年,山东全部88个海洋保护区的生态系统多样性维持服务价值为43.7亿元,平均0.497亿元/个。其中,12个自然保护区的价值为16.14亿元,平均1.35亿元/个;30个海洋特别保护区的价值为14.47亿元,平均0.489亿元/个;46个水产种质资源保护区的价值为12.9亿元,平均0.28亿元/个。结果表明:海洋自然保护区的生态系统多样性维持服务价值比海洋特别保护区和水产种质资源保护区高。在修订我国各类保护区的选划标准和管理目标时,应增加生态系统多样性维持服务价值并作为关键的选划指标。具有最高生态系统多样性维持服务价值的海域,宜选划为自然保护区,实施最严格的管理措施,确保其生态系统多样性维持服务价值增加,至少不降低。具有较高生态系统多样性维持服务价值的海域,因地制宜选划为海洋特别保护区或者海洋水产种质资源保护区,实施较严格的管理措施,确保其生态系统多样性维持服务价值不降低。     

A marine protected area network does not confer community structure resilience to a marine heatwave across coastal ecosystems

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have gained attention as a conservation tool for enhancing ecosystem resilience to climate change. However, empirical evidence explicitly linking MPAs to enhanced ecological resilience is limited and mixed. To better understand whether MPAs can buffer climate impacts, we tested the resistance and recovery of marine communities to the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific heatwave in the largest scientifically designed MPA network in the world off the coast of California, United States. The network consists of 124 MPAs (48 no-take state marine reserves, and 76 partial-take or special regulation conservation areas) implemented at different times, with full implementation completed in 2012. We compared fish, benthic invertebrate, and macroalgal community structure inside and outside of 13 no-take MPAs across rocky intertidal, kelp forest, shallow reef, and deep reef nearshore habitats in California's Central Coast region from 2007 to 2020. We also explored whether MPA features, including age, size, depth, proportion rock, historic fishing pressure, habitat diversity and richness, connectivity, and fish biomass response ratios (proxy for ecological performance), conferred climate resilience for kelp forest and rocky intertidal habitats spanning 28 MPAs across the full network. Ecological communities dramatically shifted due to the marine heatwave across all four nearshore habitats, and MPAs did not facilitate habitat-wide resistance or recovery. Only in protected rocky intertidal habitats did community structure significantly resist marine heatwave impacts. Community shifts were associated with a pronounced decline in the relative proportion of cold water species and an increase in warm water species. MPA features did not explain resistance or recovery to the marine heatwave. Collectively, our findings suggest that MPAs have limited ability to mitigate the impacts of marine heatwaves on community structure. Given that mechanisms of resilience to climate perturbations are complex, there is a clear need to expand assessments of ecosystem-wide consequences resulting from acute climate-driven perturbations, and the potential role of regulatory protection in mitigating community structure changes.     

Paradox of marine protected areas: suppression of fishing may cause species loss

A number of fish and invertebrate stocks have been depleted by overexploitation in recent years. To address this, marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established to protect biodiversity and recover stocks. We analyzed the potential impact of establishing MPAs on marine ecosystems using mathematical models. We demonstrate that establishment of an MPA can sometimes result in a considerable decline, or even extinction, of a species. We focus on a prey–predator system in two patches, one exposed to fishing activity and the other protected (MPA). Our analyses reveal that the establishment of the MPA can cause a reduction in prey abundance, and even extinction of the prey. Such unintended consequences are more likely to occur if the predator species is a generalist and if the MPA is intended to protect only the predatory species. Further, a mobile predator that migrates adaptively rather than randomly is associated with a greater reduction in prey abundance.     

“Please let me visit”: Management options for marine ecosystems in a Mediterranean Marine Protected Area

Designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) as a means to support conservation of marine ecosystems is expected to depend on local communities and stakeholder’ participation and support. This paper presents the preferences of residents of Malta for measures intended to protect Posidonia oceanica seagrasses and coralligenous formations from threats from the anchoring and mooring of vessels in an offshore MPA area. The results indicate that only the most modest of restrictions increase the economic welfare of residents as participants are, overall, against further restrictions to enter the MPA. Survey participants wish to see an increase in provisioning ecosystem services such as fish caught and increases in carbon sequestration and are willing to pay to secure such benefits. Respondents also appear to have individualistic and use-driven values as a result of interacting with the MPA while past experiences play an important role in preferences, with frequent visitors strongly objecting to further restrictions to entry. The good current condition of the seagrass beds might explain the rejection of stringent restrictions but fails to account for threats from climate change and projected increase in tourism vessels’ visits. Such findings make co-operation and appropriate communication of threats and policies for management of marine resources through MPAs to the public more imperative.     

Fish with Chips: Tracking Reef Fish Movements to Evaluate Size and Connectivity of Caribbean Marine Protected Areas

Coral reefs and associated fish populations have experienced rapid decline in the Caribbean region and marine protected areas (MPAs) have been widely implemented to address this decline. The performance of no-take MPAs (i.e., marine reserves) for protecting and rebuilding fish populations is influenced by the movement of animals within and across their boundaries. Very little is known about Caribbean reef fish movements creating a critical knowledge gap that can impede effective MPA design, performance and evaluation. Using miniature implanted acoustic transmitters and a fixed acoustic receiver array, we address three key questions: How far can reef fish move? Does connectivity exist between adjacent MPAs? Does existing MPA size match the spatial scale of reef fish movements? We show that many reef fishes are capable of traveling far greater distances and in shorter duration than was previously known. Across the Puerto Rican Shelf, more than half of our 163 tagged fish (18 species of 10 families) moved distances greater than 1 km with three fish moving more than 10 km in a single day and a quarter spending time outside of MPAs. We provide direct evidence of ecological connectivity across a network of MPAs, including estimated movements of more than 40 km connecting a nearshore MPA with a shelf-edge spawning aggregation. Most tagged fish showed high fidelity to MPAs, but also spent time outside MPAs, potentially contributing to spillover. Three-quarters of our fish were capable of traveling distances that would take them beyond the protection offered by at least 40–64% of the existing eastern Caribbean MPAs. We recommend that key species movement patterns be used to inform and evaluate MPA functionality and design, particularly size and shape. A re-scaling of our perception of Caribbean reef fish mobility and habitat use is imperative, with important implications for ecology and management effectiveness.     

Population genetics information for the regional conservation of a tropical seagrass, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Enhalus acoroides</Emphasis>, around the Guimaras Strait,Philippines

Seagrasses are marine angiosperms and play an essential ecological role in coastal ecosystems; however, seagrass meadows are threatened locally by anthropogenic disturbances. Understanding the dispersal patterns of seagrasses is essential for appropriate ecosystem management and establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) in coastal ecosystems. In the Guimaras Strait in the Philippines, Banate (BAN) has been established as an MPA. However, there is a lack of information on the genetic diversity of seagrasses in BAN and the surrounding areas. In the present study, population genetics analysis of Enhalus acoroides was performed by using polymorphic microsatellite markers, for the estimation of genetic diversity, differentiation, and migration patterns of seagrasses within the regional geographical scale (~200 km) around the Guimaras Strait. The results showed that the genetic diversity of BAN is extremely low, although the Guimaras Strait is located in the tropical central habitat. Guimaras Island geographically divides the populations of E. acoroides into south and north. However, the genetic structure did not show any relationship between the geographical location and distance. The floating, buoyant fruits of E. acoroides may play a role in their long-distance dispersal; however, such dispersal is not frequent. Almost all of the seeds and fruits are derived from self-recruitment in the natal meadow. This study suggests that E. acoroides populations possess a weak genetic connectivity, and that the persistence of the meadow is threatened due to the low genetic diversity and high degree of population isolation in BAN. To maintain and enhance the genetic diversity of seagrasses within the MPA, the seagrass meadows in the surrounding areas should also be conserved.     

Assessment of Habitat Representation across a Network of Marine Protected Areas with Implications for the Spatial Design of Monitoring

Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) are being adopted globally to protect ecosystems and supplement fisheries management. The state of California recently implemented a coast-wide network of MPAs, a statewide seafloor mapping program, and ecological characterizations of species and ecosystems targeted for protection by the network. The main goals of this study were to use these data to evaluate how well seafloor features, as proxies for habitats, are represented and replicated across an MPA network and how well ecological surveys representatively sampled fish habitats inside MPAs and adjacent reference sites. Seafloor data were classified into broad substrate categories (rock and sediment) and finer scale geomorphic classifications standard to marine classification schemes using surface analyses (slope, ruggedness, etc.) done on the digital elevation model derived from multibeam bathymetry data. These classifications were then used to evaluate the representation and replication of seafloor structure within the MPAs and across the ecological surveys. Both the broad substrate categories and the finer scale geomorphic features were proportionately represented for many of the classes with deviations of 1-6% and 0-7%, respectively. Within MPAs, however, representation of seafloor features differed markedly from original estimates, with differences ranging up to 28%. Seafloor structure in the biological monitoring design had mismatches between sampling in the MPAs and their corresponding reference sites and some seafloor structure classes were missed entirely. The geomorphic variables derived from multibeam bathymetry data for these analyses are known determinants of the distribution and abundance of marine species and for coastal marine biodiversity. Thus, analyses like those performed in this study can be a valuable initial method of evaluating and predicting the conservation value of MPAs across a regional network.     

Differential Response of Fish Assemblages to Coral Reef-Based Seaweed Farming

As the global demand for seaweed-derived products drives the expansion of seaweed farming onto shallow coral ecosystems, the effects of farms on fish assemblages remain largely unexplored. Shallow coral reefs provide food and shelter for highly diverse fish assemblages but are increasingly modified by anthropogenic activities. We hypothesized that the introduction of seaweed farms into degraded shallow coral reefs had potential to generate ecological benefits for fish by adding structural complexity and a possible food source. We conducted 210 transects at 14 locations, with sampling stratified across seaweed farms and sites adjacent to and distant from farms. At a seascape scale, locations were classified by their level of exposure to human disturbance. We compared sites where (1) marine protected areas (MPAs) were established, (2) neither MPAs nor blast fishing was present (hence “unprotected”), and (3) blast fishing occurred. We observed 80,186 fish representing 148 species from 38 families. The negative effects of seaweed farms on fish assemblages appeared stronger in the absence of blast fishing and were strongest when MPAs were present, likely reflecting the positive influence of the MPAs on fish within them. Species differentiating fish assemblages with respect to seaweed farming and disturbance were typically small but also included two key target species. The propensity for seaweed farms to increase fish diversity, abundance, and biomass is limited and may reduce MPA benefits. We suggest that careful consideration be given to the placement of seaweed farms relative to MPAs.     

Protected and threatened components of fish biodiversity in the Mediterranean sea

The Mediterranean Sea (0.82% of the global oceanic surface) holds 4%-18% of all known marine species (~17,000), with a high proportion of endemism [1, 2]. This exceptional biodiversity is under severe threats [1] but benefits from a system of 100 marine protected areas (MPAs). Surprisingly, the spatial congruence of fish biodiversity hot spots with this MPA system and the areas of high fishing pressure has not been assessed. Moreover, evolutionary and functional breadth of species assemblages [3] has been largely overlooked in marine systems. Here we adopted a multifaceted approach to biodiversity by considering the species richness of total, endemic, and threatened coastal fish assemblages as well as their functional and phylogenetic diversity. We show that these fish biodiversity components are spatially mismatched. The MPA system covers a small surface of the Mediterranean (0.4%) and is spatially congruent with the hot spots of all taxonomic components of fish diversity. However, it misses hot spots of functional and phylogenetic diversity. In addition, hot spots of endemic species richness and phylogenetic diversity are spatially congruent with hot spots of fishery impact. Our results highlight that future conservation strategies and assessment efficiency of current reserve systems will need to be revisited after deconstructing the different components of biodiversity.     

Ecosystem‐based management of coral reefs under climate change

Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land‐use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO₂ emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem‐based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change‐ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human‐assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change‐ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long‐term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.     

An overview of commercial fishers’ attitudes towards marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are attracting widespread attention worldwide as a tool for fishery management and marine ecosystem conservation. The establishment of MPAs has increased greatly in recent years mostly due to international commitments to the establishment of a global network of MPAs by 2012. MPAs have the potential to strongly affect the fishing industry, and their success depends, at least partly, on fishers’ attitudes towards this management measure. However, research on MPAs tends to focus on the ecological and conservation aspects of this management approach and not on its human dimensions. Studies in attitudes, perceptions, beliefs and preferences related to MPA issues have been identified as priority social science topics in need of research. We present a ‘rapid review’, conducted systematically, of the literature published up to September 2009 and aimed at identifying the most investigated topics related to commercial fishers’ attitudes towards MPAs, describing the main findings from these studies, and analysing the implications for management. Most published work focuses on fishers’ attitudes towards issues of governance, conservation of biodiversity and the environment, and the impact of MPAs on fishing activity. Despite the recent increase in the literature on the human dimensions of MPAs, the present review reveals that little of this literature originates from empirical studies. Hence, given the forthcoming increase in the implementation of MPAs in the near future, research on fishers’ attitudes towards these management measures is critically needed.     

Prospects for Transboundary Marine Protected Areas in East Africa

Transboundary marine protected areas have been proposed in East Africa to tackle threats to marine biodiversity, meet international MPA targets, promote tourism, and contribute to poverty reduction. This article examines what may drive, facilitate, or constrain states in creating a regime for transboundary MPAs. In East Africa, a regime between Mozambique and Tanzania is not yet formed and may be indefinitely delayed due to oil prospecting and exploration. There is, however, a well-developed regime between Mozambique and South Africa that has resulted in the two adjoining MPAs being declared the first transboundary MPA on the continent.     

Marine protected areas can be useful but are not a silver bullet for kelp conservation

Kelp forests are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, but they are increasingly being degraded and lost due to a range of human-related stressors, leading to recent calls for their improved management and conservation. One of the primary tools to conserve marine species and biodiversity is the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). International commitments to protect 30% of the world's ecosystems are gaining momentum, offering a promising avenue to secure kelp forests into the Anthropocene. However, a clear understanding of the efficacy of MPAs for conserving kelp forests in a changing ocean is lacking. In this perspective, we question whether strengthened global protection will create meaningful conservation outcomes for kelp forests. We explore the benefits of MPAs for kelp conservation under a suite of different stressors, focusing on empirical evidence from protected kelp forests. We show that MPAs can be effective against some drivers of kelp loss (e.g., overgrazing, kelp harvesting), particularly when they are maintained in the long-term and enforced as no-take areas. There is also some evidence that MPAs can reduce impacts of climate change through building resilience in multi-stressor situations. However, MPAs also often fail to provide protection against ocean warming, marine heatwaves, coastal darkening, and pollution, which have emerged as dominant drivers of kelp forest loss globally. Although well-enforced MPAs should remain an important tool to protect kelp forests, successful kelp conservation will require implementing an additional suite of management solutions that target these accelerating threats.     

Marine reserves: the need for systems

Highly protected marine reserves are areas of the sea in which human disturbances are minimised so that the full natural biological diversity is maintained or, more often, allowed to recover to a more natural state. Europe has very few marine reserves; they are very small and almost all are in the Mediterranean. There are at present no official plans to create effective systems of marine reserves. Europe has many so-called Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). These are marine areas with some extra regulations or planning procedures. MPAs aim to make human activities more efficient and more sustainable. MPAs are user-orientated, knowledge-based, locality-dependent, problem-solving extensions of standard marine planning and management. Marine reserves are quite different. All extractive and potentially disturbing human activities are prohibited. The burden of proof is reversed; no evidence of damage or danger to particular species or habitats is required; all marine life is protected on principle. The concept of marine reserves is simple and practical, but because it is new, different and additional to existing marine management, the idea is seen by many as revolutionary. Basic biological principles and practical experience in many countries make it clear that marine reserves are important to science and education, essential for conservation and useful in resource management. These features apply in all regions and ecosystems. They are independent of climate, biogeography, current human activities and the present management. Representative and viable systems of marine reserves are needed in all regions. Fishing and other human disturbances have been widespread and intensive for so long that it is very difficult to predict the stages of recovery that occur in marine reserves. Furthermore, while some features change rapidly (e.g. numbers of previously targeted species), recovery continues for a long time (e.g. fourth- and fifth-order trophic and structural changes after >25 years). None of this alters the fact that, in scientific terms, marine reserves are controls not manipulations. Such controls are required if scientists are to understand the intrinsic processes and obtain data that are not confounded by human activities (e.g. separating natural variation from fishing effects). No significant progress will be made to establish marine reserves in Europe until scientists speak out strongly and clearly on the issue. We consider it is part of our professional duty as marine biologists to state publicly and frequently the need for a representative, replicated, networked and sustainable system of highly protected marine reserves. We doubt if our grandchildren will accept any excuses if we fail. Guest editors: J. Davenport, G. Burnell, T. Cross, M. Emmerson, R. McAllen, R. Ramsay & E. Rogan Challenges to Marine Ecosystems     

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real‐world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.     

Conservation and restoration of New Zealand Island ecosystems

An ecological collapse has precipitated pioneering conservation initiatives in New Zealand. Many terrestrial communities in t he New Zealand archipelago have been devastated by over-exploitation, introduced mammals and habitat destruction. More recently, marine ecosystems have been depleted by over-harvesting. To mitigate against these losses, conservation in terrestrial environments has focused on protection of species and habitats. A similar approach is now under way in marine environments with the establishment of ‘no-take’ marine reserves. On land, conservation is now reaching beyond protection t o the eradication of pests from islands and restoration of their terrestrial ecosystems. Restoration on islands not only reduces threats to rare species; it also raises opportunities to investigate how species interact. In the sea, marine reserves not only enhance the diversity of depleted marine communities; they may also augment stocks of commercially harvested species. These initiatives provide many lessons that could be applied to degraded habitats elsewhere.     

Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances

Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985–2009) and projected (2010–2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.     

Marine Protected Area Networks: Assessing Whether the Whole Is Greater than the Sum of Its Parts

Anthropogenic impacts are increasingly affecting the world''s oceans. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) provide an option for increasing the ecological and economic benefits often provided by single MPAs. It is vital to empirically assess the effects of MPA networks and to prioritize the monitoring data necessary to explain those effects. We summarize the types of MPA networks based on their intended management outcomes and illustrate a framework for evaluating whether a connectivity network is providing an outcome greater than the sum of individual MPA effects. We use an analysis of an MPA network in Hawai''i to compare networked MPAs to non-networked MPAs to demonstrate results consistent with a network effect. We assert that planning processes for MPA networks should identify their intended outcomes while also employing coupled field monitoring-simulation modeling approaches, a powerful way to prioritize the most relevant monitoring data for empirically assessing MPA network performance.     

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.