Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero,One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis

Objectives

Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover.

Methods

We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981–2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India’s 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover.

Findings

India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women).

Conclusions

For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1–59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early.     

Monitoring Change in Child Mortality through Household Surveys

Background

Most low- and middle-income countries lack fully functional civil registration systems. Measures of under-five mortality are typically derived from periodic household surveys collecting detailed information from women on births and child deaths. However, such surveys are expensive and are not appropriate for monitoring short-term changes in child mortality. We explored and tested the validity of two new analysis methods for less-expensive summary histories of births and child deaths for such monitoring in five African countries.

Methods and Findings

The first method we explored uses individual-level survey data on births and child deaths to impute full birth histories from an earlier survey onto summary histories from a more recent survey. The second method uses cohort changes between two surveys in the average number of children born and the number of children dead by single year of age to estimate under-five mortality for the inter-survey period. The first method produces acceptable annual estimates of under-five mortality for two out of six applications to available data sets; the second method produced an acceptable estimate in only one of five applications, though none of the applications used ideal data sets.

Conclusions

The methods we tested were not able to produce consistently good quality estimates of annual under-five mortality from summary birth history data. The key problem we identified was not with the methods themselves, but with the underlying quality of the summary birth histories. If summary birth histories are to be included in general household surveys, considerable emphasis must be placed on quality control.     

Measuring Under-Five Mortality: Validation of New Low-Cost Methods

Background

There has been increasing interest in measuring under-five mortality as a health indicator and as a critical measure of human development. In countries with complete vital registration systems that capture all births and deaths, under-five mortality can be directly calculated. In the absence of a complete vital registration system, however, child mortality must be estimated using surveys that ask women to report the births and deaths of their children. Two survey methods exist for capturing this information: summary birth histories and complete birth histories. A summary birth history requires a minimum of only two questions: how many live births has each mother had and how many of them have survived. Indirect methods are then applied using the information from these two questions and the age of the mother to estimate under-five mortality going back in time prior to the survey. Estimates generated from complete birth histories are viewed as the most accurate when surveys are required to estimate under-five mortality, especially for the most recent time periods. However, it is much more costly and labor intensive to collect these detailed data, especially for the purpose of generating small area estimates. As a result, there is a demand for improvement of the methods employing summary birth history data to produce more accurate as well as subnational estimates of child mortality.

Methods and Findings

We used data from 166 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to develop new empirically based methods of estimating under-five mortality using children ever born and children dead data. We then validated them using both in- and out-of-sample analyses. We developed a range of methods on the basis of three dimensions of the problem: (1) approximating the average length of exposure to mortality from a mother''s set of children using either maternal age or time since first birth; (2) using cohort and period measures of the fraction of children ever born that are dead; and (3) capturing country and regional variation in the age pattern of fertility and mortality. We focused on improving estimates in the most recent time periods prior to a survey where the traditional indirect methods fail. In addition, all of our methods incorporated uncertainty. Validated against under-five estimates generated from complete birth histories, our methods outperformed the standard indirect method by an average of 43.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 41.2–45.2). In the 5 y prior to the survey, the new methods resulted in a 53.3% (95% CI 51.3–55.2) improvement. To illustrate the value of this method for local area estimation, we applied our new methods to an analysis of summary birth histories in the 1990, 2000, and 2005 Mexican censuses, generating subnational estimates of under-five mortality for each of 233 jurisdictions.

Conclusions

The new methods significantly improve the estimation of under-five mortality using summary birth history data. In areas without vital registration data, summary birth histories can provide accurate estimates of child mortality. Because only two questions are required of a female respondent to generate these data, they can easily be included in existing survey programs as well as routine censuses of the population. With the wider application of these methods to census data, countries now have the means to generate estimates for subnational areas and population subgroups, important for measuring and addressing health inequalities and developing local policy to improve child survival. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Causes of Early Childhood Deaths in Urban Dhaka,Bangladesh

Data on causes of early childhood death from low-income urban areas are limited. The nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2007 estimates 65 children died per 1,000 live births. We investigated rates and causes of under-five deaths in an urban community near two large pediatric hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh and evaluated the impact of different recall periods. We conducted a survey in 2006 for 6971 households and a follow up survey in 2007 among eligible remaining households or replacement households. The initial survey collected information for all children under five years old who died in the previous year; the follow up survey on child deaths in the preceding five years. We compared mortality rates based on 1-year recall to the 4 years preceding the most recent 1 year. The initial survey identified 58 deaths among children <5 years in the preceding year. The follow up survey identified a mean 53 deaths per year in the preceding five years (SD±7.3). Under-five mortality rate was 34 and neonatal mortality was 15 per thousand live births during 2006–2007. The leading cause of under-five death was respiratory infections (22%). The mortality rates among children under 4 years old for the two time periods (most recent 1-year recall and the 4 years preceding the most recent 1 year) were similar (36 versus 32). The child mortality in urban Dhaka was substantially lower than the national rate. Mortality rates were not affected by recall periods between 1 and 5 years.     

Using Health Extension Workers for Monitoring Child Mortality in Real-Time: Validation against Household Survey Data in Rural Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has scaled up its community-based programs over the past decade by training and deploying health extension workers (HEWs) in rural communities throughout the country. Consequently, child mortality has declined substantially, placing Ethiopia among the few countries that have achieved the United Nations’ fourth Millennium Development Goal. As Ethiopia continues its efforts, results must be assessed regularly to provide timely feedback for improvement and to generate further support for programs. More specifically the expansion of HEWs at the community level provides a unique opportunity to build a system for real-time monitoring of births and deaths, linked to a civil registration and vital statistics system that Ethiopia is also developing. We tested the accuracy and completeness of births and deaths reported by trained HEWs for monitoring child mortality over 15 -month periods.

Methods and Findings

HEWs were trained in 93 randomly selected rural kebeles in Jimma and West Hararghe zones of the Oromia region to report births and deaths over a 15-month period from January, 2012 to March, 2013. Completeness of number of births and deaths, age distribution of deaths, and accuracy of resulting under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates were assessed against data from a large household survey with full birth history from women aged 15–49. Although, in general HEWs, were able to accurately report events that they identified, the completeness of number of births and deaths reported over twelve-month periods was very low and variable across the two zones. Compared to household survey estimates, HEWs reported only about 30% of births and 21% of under-five deaths occurring in their communities over a twelve-month period. The under-five mortality rate was under-estimated by around 30%, infant mortality rate by 23% and neonatal mortality by 17%. HEWs reported disproportionately higher number of deaths among the very young infants than among the older children.

Conclusion

Birth and death data reported by HEWs are not complete enough to support the monitoring of changes in childhood mortality. HEWs can significantly contribute to the success of a CRVS in Ethiopia, but cannot be relied upon as the sole source for identification of vital events. Further studies are needed to understand how to increase the level of completeness.     

Nutritional status of under-five children in Bangladesh: a multilevel analysis

The nutritional status of under-five children is a sensitive sign of a country's health status as well as economic condition. This study investigated the differential impact of some demographic, socioeconomic, environmental and health-related factors on the nutritional status among under-five children in Bangladesh using Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2007 data. Two-level random intercept binary logistic regression models were used to identify the determinants of under-five malnutrition. The analyses revealed that 16% of the children were severely stunted and 25% were moderately stunted. Among the children under five years of age 3% were severely wasted and 14% were moderately wasted. Furthermore, 11% of the children were severely underweight and 28% were moderately underweight. The main contributing factors for under-five malnutrition were found to be child's age, mother's education, father's education, father's occupation, family wealth index, currently breast-feeding, place of delivery and division. Significant community-level variations were found in the analyses.     

Child Mortality Estimation: Estimating Sex Differences in Childhood Mortality since the 1970s

Introduction

Producing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1–4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s.

Methods and Findings

Simple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys'' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls''. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1–4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter.

Conclusions

The methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

Can Community Health Workers Report Accurately on Births and Deaths? Results of Field Assessments in Ethiopia,Malawi and Mali

Introduction

Most low-income countries lack complete and accurate vital registration systems. As a result, measures of under-five mortality rates rely mostly on household surveys. In collaboration with partners in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, and Mali, we assessed the completeness and accuracy of reporting of births and deaths by community-based health workers, and the accuracy of annualized under-five mortality rate estimates derived from these data. Here we report on results from Ethiopia, Malawi and Mali.

Method

In all three countries, community health workers (CHWs) were trained, equipped and supported to report pregnancies, births and deaths within defined geographic areas over a period of at least fifteen months. In-country institutions collected these data every month. At each study site, we administered a full birth history (FBH) or full pregnancy history (FPH), to women of reproductive age via a census of households in Mali and via household surveys in Ethiopia and Malawi. Using these FBHs/FPHs as a validation data source, we assessed the completeness of the counts of births and deaths and the accuracy of under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates from the community-based method against the retrospective FBH/FPH for rolling twelve-month periods. For each method we calculated total cost, average annual cost per 1,000 population, and average cost per vital event reported.

Results

On average, CHWs submitted monthly vital event reports for over 95 percent of catchment areas in Ethiopia and Malawi, and for 100 percent of catchment areas in Mali. The completeness of vital events reporting by CHWs varied: we estimated that 30%-90% of annualized expected births (i.e. the number of births estimated using a FPH) were documented by CHWs and 22%-91% of annualized expected under-five deaths were documented by CHWs. Resulting annualized under-five mortality rates based on the CHW vital events reporting were, on average, under-estimated by 28% in Ethiopia, 32% in Malawi, and 9% in Mali relative to comparable FPHs. Costs per vital event reported ranged from $21 in Malawi to $149 in Mali.

Discussion

Our findings in Mali suggest that CHWs can collect complete and high-quality vital events data useful for monitoring annual changes in under-five mortality rates. Both the supervision of CHWs in Mali and the rigor of the associated field-based data quality checks were of a high standard, and the size of the pilot area in Mali was small (comprising of approximately 53,205 residents in 4,200 households). Hence, there are remaining questions about whether this level of vital events reporting completeness and data quality could be maintained if the approach was implemented at scale. Our experience in Malawi and Ethiopia suggests that, in some settings, establishing and maintaining the completeness and quality of vital events reporting by CHWs over time is challenging. In this sense, our evaluation in Mali falls closer to that of an efficacy study, whereas our evaluations in Ethiopia and Malawi are more akin to an effectiveness study. Our overall findings suggest that no one-size-fits-all approach will be successful in guaranteeing complete and accurate reporting of vital events by CHWs.     

Estimating the under-five mortality rate using a bayesian hierarchical time series model

Background

Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for a reduction in the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, which corresponds to an annual rate of decline of 4.4%. The United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation estimates under-five mortality in every country to measure progress. For the majority of countries, the estimates within a country are based on the assumption of a piece-wise constant rate of decline.

Methods and Findings

This paper proposes an alternative method to estimate under-five mortality, such that the underlying rate of change is allowed to vary smoothly over time using a time series model. Information about the average rate of decline and changes therein is exchanged between countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cross-validation exercises suggest that the proposed model provides credible bounds for the under-five mortality rate that are reasonably well calibrated during the observation period. The alternative estimates suggest smoother trends in under-five mortality and give new insights into changes in the rate of decline within countries.

Conclusions

The proposed model offers an alternative modeling approach for obtaining estimates of under-five mortality which removes the restriction of a piece-wise linear rate of decline and introduces hierarchy to exchange information between countries. The newly proposed estimates of the rate of decline in under-5 mortality and the uncertainty assessments would help to monitor progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4.     

Effect of investment in malaria control on child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2002-2008

Background

Around 8.8 million children under-five die each year, mostly due to infectious diseases, including malaria that accounts for 16% of deaths in Africa, but the impact of international financing of malaria control on under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa has not been examined.

Methods and Findings

We combined multiple data sources and used panel data regression analysis to study the relationship among investment, service delivery/intervention coverage, and impact on child health by observing changes in 34 sub-Saharan African countries over 2002–2008. We used Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of lives saved from coverage increase of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs)/indoor residual spraying (IRS). As an indicator of outcome, we also used under-five mortality rate. Global Fund investments comprised more than 70% of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) for malaria control in 34 countries. Each $1 million ODA for malaria enabled distribution of 50,478 ITNs [95%CI: 37,774–63,182] in the disbursement year. 1,000 additional ITNs distributed saved 0.625 lives [95%CI: 0.369–0.881]. Cumulatively Global Fund investments that increased ITN/IRS coverage in 2002–2008 prevented an estimated 240,000 deaths. Countries with higher malaria burden received less ODA disbursement per person-at-risk compared to lower-burden countries ($3.90 vs. $7.05). Increased ITN/IRS coverage in high-burden countries led to 3,575 lives saved per 1 million children, as compared with 914 lives in lower-burden countries. Impact of ITN/IRS coverage on under-five mortality was significant among major child health interventions such as immunisation showing that 10% increase in households with ITN/IRS would reduce 1.5 [95%CI: 0.3–2.8] child deaths per 1000 live births.

Conclusions

Along with other key child survival interventions, increased ITNs/IRS coverage has significantly contributed to child mortality reduction since 2002. ITN/IRS scale-up can be more efficiently prioritized to countries where malaria is a major cause of child deaths to save greater number of lives with available resources.     

Impact of artemisinin-based combination therapy and insecticide-treated nets on malaria burden in Zanzibar

Background

The Roll Back Malaria strategy recommends a combination of interventions for malaria control. Zanzibar implemented artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for uncomplicated malaria in late 2003 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) from early 2006. ACT is provided free of charge to all malaria patients, while LLINs are distributed free to children under age 5 y (“under five”) and pregnant women. We investigated temporal trends in Plasmodium falciparum prevalence and malaria-related health parameters following the implementation of these two malaria control interventions in Zanzibar.

Methods and Findings

Cross-sectional clinical and parasitological surveys in children under the age of 14 y were conducted in North A District in May 2003, 2005, and 2006. Survey data were analyzed in a logistic regression model and adjusted for complex sampling design and potential confounders. Records from all 13 public health facilities in North A District were analyzed for malaria-related outpatient visits and admissions. Mortality and demographic data were obtained from District Commissioner''s Office. P. falciparum prevalence decreased in children under five between 2003 and 2006; using 2003 as the reference year, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were, for 2005, 0.55 (0.28–1.08), and for 2006, 0.03 (0.00–0.27); p for trend < 0.001. Between 2002 and 2005 crude under-five, infant (under age 1 y), and child (aged 1–4 y) mortality decreased by 52%, 33%, and 71%, respectively. Similarly, malaria-related admissions, blood transfusions, and malaria-attributed mortality decreased significantly by 77%, 67% and 75%, respectively, between 2002 and 2005 in children under five. Climatic conditions favorable for malaria transmission persisted throughout the observational period.

Conclusions

Following deployment of ACT in Zanzibar 2003, malaria-associated morbidity and mortality decreased dramatically within two years. Additional distribution of LLINs in early 2006 resulted in a 10-fold reduction of malaria parasite prevalence. The results indicate that the Millennium Development Goals of reducing mortality in children under five and alleviating the burden of malaria are achievable in tropical Africa with high coverage of combined malaria control interventions.     

The delineation of fertility strategies in a tribal population of India: the Koyas of Koraput District,Orissa

Demographic data collected for a tribal population of India, the Koyas of Koraput District, Orissa, were examined in light of 2 models of reproductive behavior associated with the economic value of children: the replacement effect and son survivorship motivation. Both models are united in the concept that infant/child mortality affects subsequent fertility. The database consists of retrospective fertility histories of Koya women who had completed their reproductive period. The total number was 260, with the total offspring numbering 1407. 2 distinct cohorts of women were formed for the purpose of analysis, separated only by the criterion of offspring survival: women who had experienced infant child mortality (129 women with 739 children); and women who completed their reproductive period without suffering offspring loss of this nature (132 women with 668 children). The cohort without child loss had a mean parity of 5.10, lower than the average parity of 5.73 recorded for the cohort whose reproductive histories included at least 1 infant/child death. Age specific marital fertility and birth interval analyses indicated that this differential was because of biological, not behavioral, factors. The age pattern of fertility of females suffering offspring mortality failed to demonstrate a high rate of childbearing in the later age intervals of the reproductive period, a characteristic pattern of couples attempting to "replace" lost offspring. Birth interval analysis pointed to biological "interval effect," whereby infant/child mortality caused a cessation of lactation and hence a shortening of postpartum amenorrhea. Computer simulation further indicated that the higher fertility differential of the cohort experiencing offspring loss still did not result in high son survivorship values. The findings agree with earlier studies indicating that for predemographic transitional populations, economically motivated fertility strategies are ineffectual.     

Entrenched Geographical and Socioeconomic Disparities in Child Mortality: Trends in Absolute and Relative Inequalities in Cambodia

Background

Cambodia has made considerable improvements in mortality rates for children under the age of five and neonates. These improvements may, however, mask considerable disparities between subnational populations. In this paper, we examine the extent of the country''s child mortality inequalities.

Methods

Mortality rates for children under-five and neonates were directly estimated using the 2000, 2005 and 2010 waves of the Cambodian Demographic Health Survey. Disparities were measured on both absolute and relative scales using rate differences and ratios, and where applicable, slope and relative indices of inequality by levels of rural/urban location, regions and household wealth.

Findings

Since 2000, considerable reductions in under-five and to a lesser extent in neonatal mortality rates have been observed. This mortality decline has, however, been accompanied by an increase in relative inequality in both rates of child mortality for geography-related stratifying markers. For absolute inequality amongst regions, most trends are increasing, particularly for neonatal mortality, but are not statistically significant. The only exception to this general pattern is the statistically significant positive trend in absolute inequality for under-five mortality in the Coastal region. For wealth, some evidence for increases in both relative and absolute inequality for neonates is observed.

Conclusion

Despite considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, entrenched and increased geographical and wealth-based inequality in mortality, at least on a relative scale, remain. As expected, national progress seems to be associated with the period of political and macroeconomic stability that started in the early 2000s. However, issues of quality of care and potential non-inclusive economic growth might explain remaining disparities, particularly across wealth and geography markers. A focus on further addressing key supply and demand side barriers to accessing maternal and child health care and on the social determinants of health will be essential in narrowing inequalities.     

Sex related differences in short and long-term prognosis after acute myocardial infarction: 10 year follow up of 3073 patients in database of first Danish Verapamil Infarction Trial.

OBJECTIVE--To re-examine the prevailing hypothesis that women fare worse than men after acute myocardial infarction. DESIGN--10 year follow up of all patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction registered in the database of the Danish verapamil infarction trial in 1979-81. SETTING--16 coronary care units, covering a fifth of the total Danish population. PATIENTS--3073 consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction, 738 (24%) women and 2335 (76%) men. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Early mortality (before day 15). For patients alive on day 15: mortality, cause of death, admission with recurrent infarction, and mortality after reinfarction. RESULTS--Early mortality increased significantly with age (P < 0.0001) but was not significantly related to sex, with a 15 day mortality of 17% in women and 16% in men. Adjustment for age and sex simultaneously revealed a significant interaction (P = 0.02) between these variables, with a greater increase with age in early mortality for men than for women (early mortality was equal for the two sexes at age 64 years). Ten year mortality in patients alive on day 15 was 58.8%. The overall age adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for women versus men was 0.90 (0.80 to 1.01); 0.90 (0.78 to 1.04) for 10 year reinfarction (48.8%); and 0.98 (0.82 to 1.16) for 10 year mortality after reinfarction (82.3%). No difference in cause of death was found between the sexes. With a follow up of up to 10 years for patients alive on day 15 mortality, rate of reinfarction, and mortality after reinfarction increased with increasing age (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION--Sex by itself is not a risk factor after acute myocardial infarction.     

Achieving MDG 4 in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Has Contributed to the Accelerated Child Mortality Decline in Ghana?

Background

Recent analyses have suggested an accelerated decline in child mortality in Ghana since 2000. This study examines the long-term child mortality trends in the country, relates them to changes in the key drivers of mortality decline, and assesses the feasibility of the country''s MDG 4 attainment.

Methodology

Data from five Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) between 1988 and 2008 and the Maternal Health Survey 2007 were used to generate two-year estimates of under-five mortality rates back to 1967. Lowess regression fitted past and future trends towards 2015. A modified Poisson approach was applied on the person-period data created from the DHS 2003 and 2008 to examine determinants of under-five mortality and their contributions to the change in mortality. A policy-modelling system assessed the feasibility of the country''s MDG 4 attainment.

Findings

The under-five mortality rate has steadily declined over the past 40 years with acceleration since 2000, and is projected to reach between 45 and 69 per 1000 live births in 2015. Preceding birth interval (reference: 36+ months, relative risk [RR] increased as the interval shortened), bed net use (RR 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52–0.95), maternal education (reference: secondary/higher, RR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.18–2.47 for primary), and maternal age at birth (reference: 17+ years, RR 2.13, 95% CI: 1.12–4.05) were primarily associated with under-five mortality. Increased bed-net use made a substantial contribution to the mortality decline. The scale-up of key interventions will allow the possibility of Ghana''s MDG 4 attainment.

Conclusions

National and global efforts for scaling up key child survival interventions in Ghana are paying off ― these concerted efforts need to be sustained in order to achieve MDG 4.     

Selection intensities in menopausal and permanent contraceptor women of a rural population in India

Changing fertility and mortality patterns due to socioeconomic forces have a profound effect on natural selection in human populations. The opportunity for selection was estimated in the rural population of Visakhapatnam District, Andra Pradesh, India, in 1979. A total of 1570 women were interviewed, 1544 among them had ever been pregnant. Data were analyzed to compute fertility and mortality components of the population. The index of total selection was found to be low. Selection in relation to birth control reveals that opportunity for selection is lower among women who completed their fertility by family planning methods than in women who completed their fertility by attaining menopause. Further, the results showed that differential fertility and mortality make equal contributions to the total measure of selection in both groups, whereas in developed countries like the US the mortality component contributes only a small fraction to the total index, due to improved health conditions.     

Correction: Overcoming Stagnation in the Levels and Distribution of Child Mortality: The Case of the Philippines

Background

Health-related within-country inequalities continue to be a matter of great interest and concern to both policy makers and researchers. This study aims to assess the level and the distribution of child mortality outcomes in the Philippines across geographical and socioeconomic indicators.

Methodology

Data on 159,130 children ever borne were analysed from five waves of the Philippine Demographic and Health Survey. Direct estimation was used to construct under-five and neonatal mortality rates for the period 1980–2013. Rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality were calculated to measure disparities on absolute and relative scales. Stratification was undertaken by levels of rural/urban location, island groups and household wealth.

Findings

National under-five and neonatal mortality rates have shown considerable albeit differential reductions since 1980. Recently released data suggests that neonatal mortality has declined following a period of stagnation. Declines in under-five mortality have been accompanied by decreases in wealth and geography-related absolute inequalities. However, relative inequalities for the same markers have remained stable over time. For neonates, mixed evidence suggests that absolute and relative inequalities have remained stable or may have risen.

Conclusion

In addition to continued reductions in under-five mortality, new data suggests that the Philippines have achieved success in addressing the commonly observed stagnated trend in neonatal mortality. This success has been driven by economic improvement since 2006 as well as efforts to implement a nationwide universal health care campaign. Yet, such patterns, nonetheless, accorded with persistent inequalities, particularly on a relative scale. A continued focus on addressing universal coverage, the influence of decentralisation and armed conflict, and issues along the continuum of care is advocated.     

Location Matters: Trends in Inequalities in Child Mortality in Indonesia. Evidence from Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys

Background

Considerable improvements in life expectancy and other human development indicators in Indonesia are thought to mask considerable disparities between populations in the country. We examine the existence and extent of these disparities by measuring trends and inequalities in the under-five mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate across wealth, education and geography.

Methodology

Using data from seven waves of the Indonesian Demographic and Health Surveys, direct estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were generated for 1980–2011. Absolute and relative inequalities were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. Disparities were assessed by levels of rural/urban location, island groups, maternal education and household wealth.

Findings

Declines in national rates of under-five and neonatal mortality have accorded with reductions of absolute inequalities in clusters stratified by wealth, maternal education and rural/urban location. Across these groups, relative inequalities have generally stabilised, with possible increases with respect to mortality across wealth subpopulations. Both relative and absolute inequalities in rates of under-five and neonatal mortality stratified by island divisions have widened.

Conclusion

Indonesia has made considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, with the largest reductions happening before the Asian financial crisis (1997–98) and decentralisation (2000). Hasty implementation of decentralisation reforms may have contributed to a slowdown in mortality rate reduction thereafter. Widening inequities between the most developed provinces of Java-Bali and those of other island groupings should be of particular concern for a country embarking on an ambitious plan for universal health coverage by 2019. A focus on addressing the key supply side barriers to accessing health care and on the social determinants of health in remote and disadvantaged regions will be essential for this plan to be realised.     

Trends in malaria cases, hospital admissions and deaths following scale-up of anti-malarial interventions, 2000-2010, Rwanda

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To control malaria, the Rwandan government and its partners distributed insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and made artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) widely available from 2005 onwards. The impact of these interventions on malaria cases, admissions and deaths was assessed using data from district hospitals and household surveys. METHODS: District records of ITN and ACT distribution were reviewed. Malaria and non-malaria indictors in 30 district hospitals were ascertained from surveillance records. Trends in cases, admissions and deaths for 2000 to 2010 were assessed by segmented log-linear regression, adjusting the effect size for time trends during the pre-intervention period, 2000-2005. Changes were estimated by comparing trends in post-intervention (2006-2010) with that of pre-intervention (2000-2005) period. All-cause deaths in children under-five in household surveys of 2005 and 2010 were also reviewed to corroborate with the trends of deaths observed in hospitals. RESULTS: The proportion of the population potentially protected by ITN increased from nearly zero in 2005 to 38% in 2006, and 76% in 2010; no major health facility stock-outs of ACT were recorded following their introduction in 2006. In district hospitals, after falling during 2006- 2008, confirmed malaria cases increased in 2009 coinciding with decreased potential ITN coverage and declined again in 2010 following an ITN distribution campaign. For all age groups, from the pre-intervention period, microscopically confirmed cases declined by 72%, (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 12-91%) in 2010, slide positivity rate declined 58%, (CI, 47%-68%), malaria inpatient cases declined 76% (CI, 49%-88%); and malaria deaths declined 47% (CI, 47%-81%). In children below five years of age, malaria inpatients decreased 82% (CI, 61%-92%) and malaria hospital deaths decreased 77% (CI, 40%-91%). Concurrently, outpatient cases, admissions and deaths due to non-malaria diseases in all age groups either increased or remained unchanged. Rainfall and temperature remained favourable for malaria transmission. The annual all-cause mortality in children under-five in household surveys declined from 152 per 1,000 live births during 2001-2005, to 76 per 1,000 live births in 2006-2010 (55% decline). The five-year cumulative number of all-cause deaths in hospital declined 28% (8,051 to 5,801) during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: A greater than 50% decline in confirmed malaria cases, admissions and deaths at district hospitals in Rwanda since 2005 followed a marked increase in ITN coverage and use of ACT. The decline occurred among both children under-five and in children five years and above, while hospital utilization increased and suitable conditions for malaria transmission persisted. Declines in malaria indicators were more striking than in the older age groups. The resurgence in cases associated with decreased ITN coverage in 2009 highlights the need for sustained high levels of anti-malarial interventions in Rwanda and other malaria endemic countries.     

Fertility and mortality differentials among the tribal population groups of Bastar District, Madhya Pradesh, India

The authors examine fertility and mortality differentials and their impact on health care and natural selection potentials among tribal populations in rural India. Data are from the Bastar District and concern 366 mothers who have completed their reproductive life span.