Impacts of environmental variability in open populations and communities: "inflation" in sink environments

Ecological communities are typically open to the immigration and emigration of individuals, and also variable through time. In this paper we argue that interesting and potentially important effects arise when one splices together spatial fluxes and temporal variability. The particular system we examine is a sink habitat, where a species faces deterministic extinction but is rescued by recurrent immigration. We have shown, using a simple extension of the canonical exponential growth model in a time-varying environment, that variation "inflates" the average abundance of sink populations. We can analytically quantify the magnitude of this effect in several special cases (square-wave temporal variation and Gaussian stochastic variation). The inflationary effect can be large in "intermittent" sinks (where there are periods with positive growth), and when temporal variation is strongly autocorrelated. The effect appears to be robust to incorporation of demographic stochasticity (due to discrete birth-death-immigration processes), and to direct density dependence. With discrete generations, however, one can observe a wide range of effects of temporal variation, including depression as well as inflation. We argue that the inflationary effect of temporal variation in sink habitats can have important implications for community structure, because it can increase the average abundance (and hence local impacts) of species that on average are being excluded from a local community. We illustrate the latter effect using a familiar model of exploitative competition for a single limiting resource. We demonstrate that temporal variation can reverse local competitive dominance, even to the extent of allowing an inferior competitor maintained by immigration to exclude a competing species that would be locally superior in a constant environment.     

Temporal autocorrelation can enhance the persistence and abundance of metapopulations comprised of coupled sinks

In spatially heterogeneous landscapes, some habitats may be persistent sources, providing immigrants to sustain populations in unfavorable sink habitats (where extinction is inevitable without immigration). Recent theoretical and empirical studies of source-sink systems demonstrate that temporally variable local growth rates in sinks can substantially increase average abundance of a persisting population, provided that the variation is positively autocorrelated--in effect, temporal variation inflates average abundance. Here we extend these results to a metapopulation in which all habitat patches are sinks. Using numerical studies of a population with discrete generations (buttressed by analytic results), we show that temporal variation and moderate dispersal can jointly permit indefinite persistence of the metapopulation and that positive autocorrelation both lowers the magnitude of variation required for persistence and increases the average abundance of persisting metapopulations. These effects are weakened--but not destroyed--if variation in local growth rates is spatially synchronized and dispersal is localized. We show that the inflationary effect is robust to a number of extensions of the basic model, including demographic stochasticity and density dependence. Because ecological and environmental processes contributing to temporally variable growth rates in natural populations are typically autocorrelated, these observations may have important implications for species persistence.     

Environmental variability uncovers disruptive effects of species' interactions on population dynamics

How species respond to changes in environmental variability has been shown for single species, but the question remains whether these results are transferable to species when incorporated in ecological communities. Here, we address this issue by analysing the same species exposed to a range of environmental variabilities when (i) isolated or (ii) embedded in a food web. We find that all species in food webs exposed to temporally uncorrelated environments (white noise) show the same type of dynamics as isolated species, whereas species in food webs exposed to positively autocorrelated environments (red noise) can respond completely differently compared with isolated species. This is owing to species following their equilibrium densities in a positively autocorrelated environment that in turn enables species–species interactions to come into play. Our results give new insights into species'' response to environmental variation. They especially highlight the importance of considering both species'' interactions and environmental autocorrelation when studying population dynamics in a fluctuating environment.     

Dynamics of species interaction strength in space, time and with developmental stage

Quantifying species interaction strengths enhances prediction of community dynamics, but variability in the strength of species interactions in space and time complicates accurate prediction. Interaction strengths can vary in response to density, indirect effects, priority effects or a changing environment, but the mechanism(s) causing direction and magnitudes of change are often unclear. We designed an experiment to characterize how environmental factors influence the direction and the strength of priority effects between sessile species. We estimated per capita non-trophic effects of barnacles (Semibalanus balanoides) on newly settled germlings of the fucoid, Ascophyllum nodosum, in the presence and absence of consumers in experiments on rocky shores throughout the Gulf of Maine, USA. Per capita effects on germlings varied among environments and barnacle life stages, and these interaction strengths were largely unaltered by changing consumer abundance. Whereas previous evidence shows adult barnacles facilitate fucoids, here, we show that recent settlers and established juveniles initially compete with germlings. As barnacles mature, they switch to become facilitators of fucoids. Consumers caused variable mortality of germlings through time comparable to that from competition. Temporally variable effects of interactors (e.g. S. balanoides), or spatial variation in their population structure, in different regions differentially affect target populations (e.g. A. nodosum). This may affect abundance of critical stages and the resilience of target species to environmental change in different geographical regions.     

Environmental fluctuations promote intraspecific diversity and population persistence via inflationary effects

The impact of temporal variation in the environment, specifically the amount of temporal autocorrelation, on population processes is of growing interest in ecology and evolutionary biology. It was recently discovered that temporal autocorrelation in the environment can significantly increase the abundance of populations that would otherwise have low, or even negative long‐term growth rates (via so‐called ‘inflationary effects’), provided that immigration from another source prevents extinction. Here we use a mathematical model to ask whether inflationary effects can also increase population persistence without immigration if different phenotypes within that population partition growth over time and buffer each other from extinction via mutation. Using a combination of analytical and numerical methods, we find that environmental autocorrelation can inflate the abundance of phenotypes that would otherwise be excluded from the population, provided that phenotypes are sufficiently different in their use of the environment. This inflation of abundance at the phenotypic level also generates an inflation of abundance at the population level. Remarkably, intraspecific inflationary effects can increase both phenotypic and whole population abundance even if one or all phenotypes are maladapted to the environment, as long as mutations prevent phenotypic extinction during periods of poor environmental conditions. Given the prevalence of temporally autocorrelated environmental variables in nature, intraspecific inflationary effects have the potential to be of widespread importance for population persistence as well as the maintenance of intraspecific diversity.     

Temporal autocorrelation in host density increases establishment success of parasitoids in an experimental system

Environmental variation is classically expected to affect negatively population growth and to increase extinction risk, and it has been identified as a major determinant of establishment failures in the field. Yet, recent theoretical investigations have shown that the structure of environmental variation and more precisely the presence of positive temporal autocorrelation might alter this prediction. This is particularly likely to affect the establishment dynamics of biological control agents in the field, as host–parasitoid interactions are expected to induce temporal autocorrelation in host abundance. In the case where parasitoid populations display overcompensatory dynamics, the presence of such positive temporal autocorrelation should increase their establishment success in a variable environment. We tested this prediction in laboratory microcosms by introducing parasitoids to hosts whose abundances were manipulated to simulate uncorrelated or positively autocorrelated variations in carrying capacity. We found that environmental variability decreased population size and increased parasitoid population variance, which is classically expected to extinction risk. However, although exposed to significant environmental variation, we found that parasitoid populations experiencing positive temporal autocorrelation in host abundance were more likely to persist than populations exposed to uncorrelated variation. These results confirm that environmental variation is a key determinant of extinction dynamics that can have counterintuitive effects depending on its autocorrelation structure.     

Environmentally‐induced noise dampens and reddens with increasing trophic level in a complex food web

Stochastic variability of key abiotic factors including temperature, precipitation and the availability of light and nutrients greatly influences species’ ecological function and evolutionary fate. Despite such influence, ecologists have typically ignored the effect of abiotic stochasticity on the structure and dynamics of ecological networks. Here we help to fill that gap by advancing the theory of how abiotic stochasticity, in the form of environmental noise, affects the population dynamics of species within food webs. We do this by analysing an allometric trophic network model of Lake Constance subjected to positive (red), negative (blue), and non‐autocorrelated (white) abiotic temporal variability (noise) introduced into the carrying capacity of basal species. We found that, irrespective of the colour of the introduced noise, the temporal variability of the species biomass within the network both reddens (i.e. its positive autocorrelation increases) and dampens (i.e. the magnitude of variation decreases) as the environmental noise is propagated through the food web by its feeding interactions from the bottom to the top. The reddening reflects a buffering of the noise‐induced population variability by complex food web dynamics such that non‐autocorrelated oscillations of noise‐free deterministic dynamics become positively autocorrelated. Our research helps explain frequently observed red variability of natural populations by suggesting that ecological processing of environmental noise through food webs with a range of species’ body sizes reddens population variability in nature.     

The structure and stability of model ecosystems assembled in a variable environment

To explore how environmental variability may create non‐random community structure, we simulated the assembly of model communities under varying levels of environmental variability. We assembled communities by creating a large pool of randomly constructed species, and then added species from this pool sequentially, allowing extinctions of invading and resident species to occur until the community became saturated. Because much current research on community structure focuses on single trophic levels, we constructed species pools consisting only of competitors. To compare with more realistic communities, we also created species pools with multiple trophic levels. For both types of communities, following assembly we calculated a variety of metrics of community structure, and five measures of community stability. Communities assembled under high environmental variability had fewer species, fewer and weaker interactions among species, and greater evenness in abundance of persisting species. For single trophic‐level communities, community size was dictated primarily by competitive exclusion. In contrast, for multiple trophic‐level communities, community size was increasingly limited by dynamical instabilities as environmental variability increased. Differences in community structure resulting from assembly under high environmental variability led to differences in community stability. According to two measures of stability related to population variability – the characteristic return rate to equilibrium and the coefficient of variation in individual species densities – stability increased for communities assembled under high environmental variability. In contrast, three additional measures of stability that are not directly related to population variability showed a variety of patterns, either increasing, decreasing, or remaining constant. Thus, communities assembled in highly variable environments are not necessarily generically more stable. Our results demonstrate that environmental variability can structure communities and affect their stability properties in non‐trivial ways. Thus, when making predictions about the response of communities to future extinctions or environmental degradation, account should be given to the forces responsible for community structure.     

Nice weather for bettongs: using weather events,not climate means,in species distribution models

Current applications of species distribution models (SDM) are typically static, in that they are based on correlations between where a species has been observed (ignoring the date of the observation) and environmental features, such as long‐term climate means, that are assumed to be constant for each site. Because of this SDMs do not account for temporal variation in the distribution of suitable habitat across the range of a species. Here, we demonstrate the temporal variability in the potential geographic distributions of an endangered marsupial, the northern bettong Bettongia tropica as a case study. Models of the species distribution using temporally matched observations of the species with weather data (including extreme weather events) at the time of species observations, were better able to define habitat suitability, identify range edges and uncover competitive interactions than models based on static long‐term climate means. Droughts and variable temperature are implicated in low densities and local extinctions of northern bettong populations close to range edges. Further, we show how variable weather can influence the results of competition with the common rufous bettong Aepyprymnus rufescens. Because traditional SDMs do not account for temporal variability of suitable habitat, static SDMs may underestimate the impacts of climate change particularly as the incidence of extreme weather events is likely to rise.     

Dynamics of Reciprocal Pulsed Subsidies in Local and Meta-Ecosystems

Temporally variable and reciprocal subsidies between ecosystems are ubiquitous. These spatial flows can generate a suite of direct and indirect effects in local and meta-ecosystems. The focus of most subsidy research, however, has been on the response of consumers in recipient ecosystems to constant subsidies over very short or very long time scales. We derive a meta-ecosystem model to explicitly consider the dynamic feedbacks between local ecosystems coupled through reciprocal pulsed subsidies. We predict oscillating reinforcing and dampening effects of reciprocal pulsed herbivore flows. Maximum reinforcing effects between reciprocal pulsed herbivore flows occur when these flows are in phase with the dynamics of neighboring predators. This prediction is robust to a range of pulse quantities and frequencies. Reciprocal pulsed herbivore subsidies lead to spatial and temporal variability in the strength of trophic cascades in local and meta-ecosystems but these cascading effects are the strongest when reciprocal pulsed subsidies are temporally concentrated. When predators demonstrate a behavioral response to prey abundance, reciprocal pulsed subsidies dampen the strength of local trophic cascades but lead to strong trophic cascades across local ecosystems. The timing of reciprocal pulsed subsidies is a critical component that determines the cascading effects of spatial flows. We show that spatial and temporal variabilities in resources and consumers can have a significant influence on the strength of cascading trophic interactions; therefore, our ability to detect and understand trophic cascades may depend on the scale of inquiry of ecological studies.     

Environmental variability counteracts priority effects to facilitate species coexistence: evidence from nectar microbes

The order of species arrival during community assembly can greatly affect species coexistence, but the strength of these effects, known as priority effects, appears highly variable across species and ecosystems. Furthermore, the causes of this variation remain unclear despite their fundamental importance in understanding species coexistence. Here, we show that one potential cause is environmental variability. In laboratory experiments using nectar-inhabiting microorganisms as a model system, we manipulated spatial and temporal variability of temperature, and examined consequences for priority effects. If species arrived sequentially, multiple species coexisted under variable temperature, but not under constant temperature. Temperature variability prevented extinction of late-arriving species that would have been excluded owing to priority effects if temperature had been constant. By contrast, if species arrived simultaneously, species coexisted under both variable and constant temperatures. We propose possible mechanisms underlying these results using a mathematical model that incorporates contrasting effects of microbial species on nectar pH and amino acids. Overall, our findings suggest that understanding consequences of priority effects for species coexistence requires explicit consideration of environmental variability.     

Trait matching and phenological overlap increase the spatio‐temporal stability and functionality of plant–pollinator interactions

Morphology and phenology influence plant–pollinator network structure, but whether they generate more stable pairwise interactions with higher pollination success remains unknown. Here we evaluate the importance of morphological trait matching, phenological overlap and specialisation for the spatio‐temporal stability (measured as variability) of plant–pollinator interactions and for pollination success, while controlling for species' abundance. To this end, we combined a 6‐year plant–pollinator interaction dataset, with information on species traits, phenologies, specialisation, abundance and pollination success, into structural equation models. Interactions among abundant plants and pollinators with well‐matched traits and phenologies formed the stable and functional backbone of the pollination network, whereas poorly matched interactions were variable in time and had lower pollination success. We conclude that phenological overlap could be more useful for predicting changes in species interactions than species abundances, and that non‐random extinction of species with well‐matched traits could decrease the stability of interactions within communities and reduce their functioning.     

Environmental variability and population dynamics: do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between‐year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.     

The impact of environmental variability and species composition on the stability of experimental microbial populations and communities

Understanding how environmental fluctuations affect the stability of populations and communities is complex, for example, because direct effects of environmental variability on populations may be modified and propagated across communities by species interactions. One way to explore and further understand these complexities is via a factorial manipulation of community composition and environmental conditions. Using laboratory based aquatic microcosms we manipulated environmental fluctuation by creating two environments; one with variable light and one with constant light. Within these environments, community composition was manipulated by constructing communities from all possible combinations of three species that vary in their reliance on light for growth (an autotroph: a diatom completely reliant on light, a heterotroph: a Paramecium species not reliant on light, and a mixotroph: a Paramecium species somewhat reliant on light). Community composition was predicted to affect populations and communities by introducing and altering competitive interactions between species and affecting the degree of niche differentiation between species. We found that population stability was predominantly influenced by an interaction between community composition and environmental variability, whereby the effect of environmental variability synergistically combined with effects of community composition to reduce population stability. Covariance of populations was determined by an interaction between community composition and environmental variability, though this did not result from the effect of niche differentiation between species. Species interactions drove correlations between population biomass and the environment which otherwise did not exist. Our results demonstrate the complex and interrelated effects of abiotic and biotic factors on population and community stability, and suggest the need to consider aspects of community composition when predicting the impact of environmental fluctuations.     

Temporally stable abundance–occupancy relationships and occupancy frequency patterns in stream insects

The interspecific relationship between local abundance and regional distribution, as well as the occupancy frequency distribution, are widely studied topics in macroecology. A positive abundance-occupancy relationship has been found in a majority of studies, and satellite species modes are typically dominant in occupancy frequency distributions. However, there are a number of exceptions to these "general" findings, and only a few studies have examined these patterns and their temporal variability in stream organisms. I examined both abundance-occupancy relationships and occupancy frequency distributions in stream insects in a boreal drainage system over six consecutive years. I found that the positive interspecific abundance-occupancy relationship was highly stable temporally, with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.25 to 0.47 over the years. There were no strong differences in the strength and slope of the abundance-occupancy relationship between non-predatory and predatory insect species in each year. Temporally stable abundance-occupancy relationships were paralleled by among-year patterns in both abundance and occupancy, with locally abundant and widely distributed species remaining locally abundant and widely distributed over the years, while locally uncommon and regionally rare species showed the opposite. Occupancy frequency distributions were strongly right-skewed, mirroring the dominance of the left-most satellite mode of regionally rare species. That the abundance-occupancy relationship, species' abundances and distributions, as well as the dominance of satellite species in occupancy frequency distribution were temporally stable suggest that niche-based models are strong candidates for explaining these patterns in stream insects. By contrast, metapopulation-based models that predict clear temporal variability in species' abundance and occupancy, as well as bimodal occupancy frequency distributions, are less plausible candidates for explaining the observed patterns. The present findings are the opposite to those in some terrestrial studies, but they are in agreement with other terrestrial studies and with a few previous studies on stream organisms.     

Resource pulses,species interactions,and diversity maintenance in arid and semi-arid environments

Arid environments are characterized by limited and variable rainfall that supplies resources in pulses. Resource pulsing is a special form of environmental variation, and the general theory of coexistence in variable environments suggests specific mechanisms by which rainfall variability might contribute to the maintenance of high species diversity in arid ecosystems. In this review, we discuss physiological, morphological, and life-history traits that facilitate plant survival and growth in strongly water-limited variable environments, outlining how species differences in these traits may promote diversity. Our analysis emphasizes that the variability of pulsed environments does not reduce the importance of species interactions in structuring communities, but instead provides axes of ecological differentiation between species that facilitate their coexistence. Pulses of rainfall also influence higher trophic levels and entire food webs. Better understanding of how rainfall affects the diversity, species composition, and dynamics of arid environments can contribute to solving environmental problems stemming from land use and global climate change.     

Predator selectivity alters the effect of dispersal on coexistence among apparent competitors

While the majority of studies on dispersal effects on patterns of coexistence among species in a metacommunity have focused on resource competitors, dispersal in systems with predator–prey interactions may provide very different results. Here, we use an analytical model to study the effect of dispersal rates on coexistence of two prey species sharing a predator (apparent competition), when the traits of that predator vary. Specifically, we explore the range in immigration rates where apparent competitors are able to coexist, and how that range changes with predator selectivity and efficiency. We find that if the inferior apparent competitor has a higher probability of being consumed, it will require less immigration to invade and to exclude the superior prey as the predator becomes more opportunistic. However, if the inferior apparent competitor has a lower probability of being consumed (and lower growth rates), higher immigration is required for the inferior prey to invade and exclude the superior prey as the predator becomes more opportunistic. We further find that the largest range of immigration rates where prey coexist occurs when predator selectivity is intermediate (i.e. they do not show much bias towards consuming one species or the other). Increasing predator efficiency generally reduces the immigration rates necessary for the inferior apparent competitor to invade and exclude the superior apparent competitor, but also reduces the range of immigration rates where the two apparent competitors can coexist. However, when the superior apparent competitor has a higher probability of being consumed, increased predator efficiency can increase the range of parameters where the species can coexist. Our results are consistent with some of the variation observed in the effect of dispersal on prey species richness in empirical systems with top predators.     

Harvested populations are more variable only in more variable environments

The interaction between environmental variation and population dynamics is of major importance, particularly for managed and economically important species, and especially given contemporary changes in climate variability. Recent analyses of exploited animal populations contested whether exploitation or environmental variation has the greatest influence on the stability of population dynamics, with consequences for variation in yield and extinction risk. Theoretical studies however have shown that harvesting can increase or decrease population variability depending on environmental variation, and requested controlled empirical studies to test predictions. Here, we use an invertebrate model species in experimental microcosms to explore the interaction between selective harvesting and environmental variation in food availability in affecting the variability of stage‐structured animal populations over 20 generations. In a constant food environment, harvesting adults had negligible impact on population variability or population size, but in the variable food environments, harvesting adults increased population variability and reduced its size. The impact of harvesting on population variability differed between proportional and threshold harvesting, between randomly and periodically varying environments, and at different points of the time series. Our study suggests that predicting the responses to selective harvesting is sensitive to the demographic structures and processes that emerge in environments with different patterns of environmental variation.     

Fish species richness in spring‐fed ponds: effects of habitat size versus isolation in temporally variable environments

1. Species richness in a habitat patch is determined by immigration (regional) and extinction (local) processes, and understanding their relative importance is crucial for conservation of biodiversity. In this study, we applied the Island Biogeography concept to spring ponds connected to a river in southwestern Japan to examine how immigration and extinction processes interact to determine fish species richness in temporally variable environments. 2. Fish censuses were conducted 15 times in 13 study ponds at 1–4 month intervals from August 1998 through October 2000. Effects of habitat size (pond area), isolation (distance from the river) and temporal environmental variability (water level fluctuation) on (i) species richness, (ii) immigration and extinction rates and (iii) population size and persistence of each fish species were assessed. 3. The results revealed predominant effects of distance on species richness, immigration/extinction rates and population size and persistence. Species richness decreased with increasing distance but was not related to either pond area or water level fluctuation. A negative effect of distance on immigration rate was detected, while neither pond area nor water level fluctuation had significant effects on extinction rate. Further, population size and persistence of four species increased with decreasing distance, suggesting that, in ponds close to the river, immigrants from the river reduce the probability of extinction (i.e. provide a rescue effect), contributing to the maintenance of high species richness. 4. Overall results emphasise the importance of immigration processes, rather than extinction, in shaping patterns of species richness in our system. The predominant importance of immigration was probably because of (i) high temporal variability that negates habitat‐size effects and (ii) continuous immigration that easily compensates for local extinctions. Our results suggest that consideration of regional factors (e.g. connectivity, locations of source populations and barriers to colonisation) is crucial for conservation and restoration of local habitats.     

Temporal variability within disturbance events regulates their effects on natural communities

Disturbances are processes inherently variable in time and space. This variability comprises a key determinant of ecosystem responses to disturbance. Temporal patterns can, however, vary significantly both among and within individual disturbance events. While recent research has demonstrated an importance of the former, studies on the effects of variability within perturbations have consistently confounded temporal variability with other disturbance attributes (e.g. overall intensity or duration). We established a field experiment to test explicitly the hypothesis that the temporal pattern within perturbations can drive ecosystem responses independently of other disturbance traits. We examined the effects of two disturbance regimes comprising sediment pulses of contrasting temporal pattern (constant and temporally variable intensities) on the benthic invertebrate assemblage of a headwater stream. The overall intensity, duration, timing and frequency of the perturbations were, however, identical. Invertebrates drifting during the temporally variable pulses were more abundant and differed in taxonomic and trophic structure than those exposed to constant perturbations. Moreover, whereas temporal patterns of disturbance events had no immediate effect on benthic invertebrate assemblages in situ, assemblages exposed to the constant perturbations took longer to recover from sediment disturbances than those exposed to temporally variable perturbations. Our results demonstrate that variability in the temporal pattern of intensity within individual perturbations can regulate, independently of other disturbance attributes, the extent and type of ecosystem responses to, and recovery from, disturbances. Effective environmental management and policy therefore necessitate the explicit quantification of temporal patterns of intensity both within and among perturbations.