Historical intensity of natural selection for resistance to tuberculosis

Infections have long been thought to exert natural selection on humans. Infectious disease resistance is frequently invoked as a mechanism shaping human genetic diversity, but such hypotheses have rarely been quantitatively evaluated with direct measures of disease-related mortality. Enhancement of genetically determined resistance to tuberculosis by natural selection has been proposed as a factor explaining the decline of tuberculosis in Europe and North America in the period 1830-1950 (before the advent of antimicrobial chemotherapy) and the apparently reduced susceptibility of Europeans and their descendants to tuberculosis infection and/or disease. We used Swedish vital statistics from 1891 to 1900 to estimate that individuals who escaped mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) during the European tuberculosis epidemic would have enjoyed a fitness advantage of 7-15% per generation compared to individuals who were susceptible to PTB mortality; individuals with 50% protection would have had a selection coefficient of 4-7%/generation. Selection during the peak of the European TB epidemic could have substantially reduced the frequency of already rare alleles conferring increased susceptibility to PTB mortality, but only if the phenotypic effects of these alleles were very large. However, if resistant alleles were rare at the beginning of this period, 300 years would not have been long enough for such selection to increase their frequency to epidemiologically significant levels. Reductions in the frequency of rare susceptibility alleles could have played at most a small part in the decline of the epidemic in the century preceding 1950. Natural selection by PTB deaths during the European TB epidemic alone cannot account for the presently low level of TB disease observed among Europeans and their descendants just prior to the appearance of antibiotic treatment.     

Models of human genetic disease: how biased are the standard formulae?

Standard theory provides a simple prediction for the frequency of a recessive lethal allele conferring heterozygous protection against an infectious disease (the best-known example being sickle cell protection against malaria). This relationship allows historic disease mortality rates to be estimated. There are, however, hidden biases in this approach. Reproductively active human females in archaic societies normally produce children at intervals of around 4 years. If death of the fetus or young infant (less than around 3 years of age) occurs, then the mother re-enters oestrus and produces another child. This 'reproductive compensation' reduces selection against the agent causing early mortality (the recessive allele or infective agent) and biases our estimates of historic mortality rates. The magnitude of these biases is investigated. Re-conception also constitutes a demographic selective pressure acting alongside natural selection: lethal genetic diseases (or tightly linked loci) will be selected to become ever more virulent, killing at ever decreasing ages, to allow the mother to re-enter oestrus and re-conceive a (hopefully unaffected) sibling; this effect also invalidates statistical tests using the number of alleles to distinguish overdominance from drift as explanations for high allele frequency. The same bias affects calculations of mutation/selection balance: for any given mutation rate, syndromes which kill early in life will reach much higher frequencies than those killing at later ages. An intriguing consequence is that lethal recessive disorders in humans will increase in frequency by up to 45% as a consequence of the recent demographic transition to planned family size.     

MHC polymorphism and disease resistance to Vibrio anguillarum in 12 selective Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) families

Genetic variation in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class IIB was tested in Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) for survival after challenge with bacterial infection. The material consisted of 6000 Japanese flounder from 60 families challenged with Vibrio anguillarum, which causes significantly different mortality in flounder families. Five individuals from each of six high-resistance (HR) and six low-resistance (LR) families were screened for their MHC class IIB genotypes using sequence analysis. High polymorphism of MHC IIB gene and at least three loci were discovered in Japanese flounder and the rate of d(N) occurred at a significantly higher frequency than that of d(S) in PBR. Among 60 individuals, 76 alleles were discovered and 15 alleles were used to study associations between alleles and resistance to disease. We found highly significant associations between resistance towards infectious disease caused by V. anguillarum and MHC class IIB polymorphism in Japanese flounder. Some alleles appeared in both HR and LR families, while some alleles were only discovered in HR or LR families. One allele, Paol-DAB*4301, was significantly more prevalent in HR families than in LR families (P=0.023). Paol-DAB*0601, Paol-DAB*0801, Paol-DAB*2001, Paol-DAB*3803 were discovered in two HR families with high frequency. One allele, Paol-DAB*1601, was discovered in three LR families. The steady heredity of MHC class IIB alleles was observed, and the family having Paol-DAB*4301 alleles was confirmed with higher resistance to V. anguillarum. This study confirmed the association between alleles of MHC class IIB gene and disease resistance, and also detected some alleles which might be correlated with high bacterial infection resistance. The disease resistance-related MHC markers could be used for molecular marker-assisted selective breeding in the flounder.     

Changes in Mean and Genetic Variance During Two Cycles of Within-family Selection in Switchgrass

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a candidate for cellulosic bioenergy feedstock development. Because biomass yield is the most important biological factor limiting the commercial development and deployment of switchgrass as a cellulosic bioenergy feedstock efforts must be undertaken to develop improved cultivars. The objectives of this study were (1) to conduct two cycles of within-family selection for increased biomass yield in WS4U switchgrass and (2) to simultaneously evaluate progress from selection relative to the mean of the original WS4U population. Each of the 150 WS4U families was subjected to phenotypic selection for vigor, seed production, and disease resistance. The mean of all families increased relative to the original WS4U population by 0.36 Mg ha^?1 cycle^?1 for biomass yield and 3.0% cycle^?1 for ground cover. Gains were uniform across two diverse evaluation locations, indicating that selection gains were robust relative to some variation in Hardiness Zone and soil type. Two cycles of within-family selection led to a homogenization of the diverse families, creating novel recombinations and reducing the family genetic variance to near zero. It is hypothesized that selection and recombination has led to replication of favorable alleles across pedigrees with differing genetic backgrounds, increasing the likelihood of including these favorable alleles in the progeny of future selections. The rate of genetic progress is expected to increase in future cycles of selection with a combination of within-family phenotypic selection and half-sib progeny testing of selected families.     

Kin selection in human populations: theory reconsidered

Past considerations of kin selection have assumed a dyadic fitness exchange relationship between altruist and recipient. This approach does not account for all alleles affected by altruistic behavior. This can be corrected by focusing on matings rather than on individuals. I present a model that tries to account for fitness changes resulting from altruistic acts, not only for the altruist and recipient but also for their spouses, in an evolving population. Results from this model indicate that Hamilton's rule fails to predict when the altruism allele will increase in frequency and, more important, suggest that kin selection can, at most, account for low levels of a gene for altruism but only if fairly extreme conditions are met.     

Relating fitness to long‐term environmental variations in natura

Quantifying links between ecological processes and adaptation dynamics in natura remains a crucial challenge. Many studies have documented the strength, form and direction of selection, and its variations in space and time, but only a few managed to link these variations to their proximal causes. This step is, however, crucial, if we are to understand how the variation in selective pressure affects adaptive allele dynamics in natural settings. We used data from a long‐term survey (about 30 years) monitoring the adaptation to insecticides of Culex pipiens mosquitoes in Montpellier area (France), focusing on three resistance alleles of the Ester locus. We used a population genetics model taking temporal and spatial variations in selective pressure into account, to assess the quantitative relationships between variations in the proximal agent of selection (amounts of insecticide sprayed) and the fitness of resistance alleles. The response to variations in selective pressure was fast, and the alleles displayed different fitness‐to‐environment relationships: the analyses revealed that even slight changes in insecticide doses could induce changes in the strength and direction of selection, thus changing the fitness ranking of the adaptive alleles. They also revealed that selective pressures other than the insecticides used for mosquito control affected the resistance allele dynamics. These fitness‐to‐environment relationships, fast responses and continuous evolution limit our ability to predict the outcome of adaptive allele dynamics in a changing environment, but they clearly contribute to the maintenance of polymorphism in natural populations. Our study also emphasizes the necessity of long‐term surveys in evolutionary ecology.     

Evolutionary dynamics of pathogen resistance and tolerance

Abstract.— Host organisms can respond to the threat of disease either through resistance defenses (which inhibit or limit infection) or through tolerance strategies (which do not limit infection, but reduce or offset its fitness consequences). Here we show that resistance and tolerance can have fundamentally different evolutionary outcomes, even when they have equivalent short-term benefit for the host. As a gene conferring disease resistance spreads through a population, the incidence of infection declines, reducing the fitness advantage of carrying the resistance gene. Thus genes conferring complete resistance cannot become fixed (i.e., universal) by selection in a host population, and diseases cannot be eliminated solely by natural selection for host resistance. By contrast, as a gene conferring disease tolerance spreads through a population, disease incidence rises, increasing the evolutionary advantage of carrying the tolerance gene. Therefore, any tolerance gene that can invade a host population will tend to be driven to fixation by selection. As predicted, field studies of diverse plant species infected by rust fungi confirm that resistance traits tend to be polymorphic and tolerance traits tend to be fixed. These observations suggest a new mechanism for the evolution of mutualism from parasitism, and they help to explain the ubiquity of disease.     

Experimental prediction of the natural evolution of antibiotic resistance

The TEM family of beta-lactamases has evolved to confer resistance to most of the beta-lactam antibiotics, but not to cefepime. To determine whether the TEM beta-lactamases have the potential to evolve cefepime resistance, we evolved the ancestral TEM allele, TEM-1, in vitro and selected for cefepime resistance. After four rounds of mutagenesis and selection for increased cefepime resistance each of eight independent populations reached a level equivalent to clinical resistance. All eight evolved alleles increased the level of cefepime resistance by a factor of at least 32, and the best allele improved by a factor of 512. Sequencing showed that alleles contained from two to six amino acid substitutions, many of which were shared among alleles, and that the best allele contained only three substitutions.     

Frequency of alleles conferring resistance to a Bacillus thuringiensis toxin in a Philippine population of Scirpophaga incertulas (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)

Using the F2 screen methodology, we estimated the frequency of alleles conferring resistance to the Cry1Ab toxin of Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner in a Philippine population of the stem borer Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker). Evaluation of >450 isofemale lines for survival of F2 larvae on cry1Ab plants did not detect the presence of an allele conferring a high level of resistance. The frequency of such an allele in the sampled population was conservatively estimated to be <3.6 x 10(-3) with 95% confidence and a detection probability of 94%. However, there was evidence of the presence of alleles conferring partial resistance to Cry1Ab. The frequency of alleles for partial resistance was estimated as 4.8 x 10(-3) with a 95% CI between 1.3 x 10(-3) and 1.04 x 10(-2) and a detection probability of 94%. Our results suggest that the frequency of alleles conferring resistance to Cry1Ab in the population of S. incertulas sampled is not too high to preclude successful implementation of the high dose/refuge resistance management strategy.     

Within-family marker-assisted selection for aquaculture species

A within-family marker-assisted selection scheme was designed for typical aquaculture breeding schemes, where most traits are recorded on sibs of the candidates. Here, sibs of candidates were tested for the trait and genotyped to establish genetic marker effects on the trait. BLUP breeding values were calculated, including information of the markers (MAS) or not (NONMAS). These breeding values were identical for all family members in the NONMAS schemes, but differed between family members in the MAS schemes, making within-family selection possible. MAS had up to twice the total genetic gain of the corresponding NONMAS scheme. MAS was somewhat less effective when heritability increased from 0.06 to 0.12 or when the frequency of the positive allele was < 0.5. The relative efficiency of MAS was higher for schemes with more candidates, because of larger fullsib family sizes. MAS was also more efficient when male:female mating ratio changed from 1:1 to 1:5 or when the QTL explained more of the total genetic variation. Four instead of two markers linked to the QTL increased genetic gain somewhat. There was no significant difference in polygenic genetic gain between MAS and NONMAS for most schemes. The rates of inbreeding were lower for MAS than NON-MAS schemes, because fewer full-sibs were selected by MAS.     

Testing the heritability and parent-of-origin hypotheses for ages at onset of psoriatic arthritis under biased sampling

The heritability and parent-of-origin effect hypotheses for chronic diseases can be evaluated by estimating and conducting inference about the parameters that measure the within-family dependences in disease onset times. We model the within-family associations in these times using a Gaussian copula whose correlation matrix accommodates the different pairwise family relationships. We derive score-type statistics to test the heritability and parent-of-origin effect hypotheses when the families selection protocol induces a sampling bias. We illustrate the use of the developed methods through an application to a motivating family study in Psoriatic arthritis and provide strong evidence of excessive paternal transmission of risk.     

Initial frequency of alleles conferring resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis poplar in a field population of Chrysomela tremulae

Globally, the estimated total area planted with transgenic plants producing Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins was 12 million hectares in 2001. The risk of target pests becoming resistant to these toxins has led to the implementation of resistance-management strategies. The efficiency and sustainability of these strategies, including the high-dose plus refuge strategy currently recommended for North American maize, depend on the initial frequency of resistance alleles. In this study, we estimated the initial frequencies of alleles conferring resistance to transgenic Bt poplars producing Cry3A in a natural population of the poplar pest Chrysomela tremulae (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). We used the F(2) screen method developed for detecting resistance alleles in natural pest populations. At least three parents of the 270 lines tested were heterozygous for a major Bt resistance allele. We estimated mean resistance-allele frequency for the period 1999-2001 at 0.0037 (95% confidence interval = 0.00045-0.0080) with a detection probability of 90%. These results demonstrate that (i) the F(2) screen method can be used to detect major alleles conferring resistance to Bt-producing plants in insects and (ii) the initial frequency of alleles conferring resistance to Bt toxin can be close to the highest theoretical values that are expected prior to the use of Bt plants if considering fitness costs and typical mutation rates.     

Intense selection in an age-structured population

In a population with overlapping generations, intense selection can perturb the age distribution and thus affect the rate of increase of an advantageous allele. We found that the age-specific nature of intense selection, such as that generated by many diseases, can affect the outcome of selection on loci, such as those conferring disease resistance. We also found that the temporal dynamics of selection alter the speed of evolution, particularly when selection is intense, and even more so when it is age-specific. We relate our model and results to selection for disease resistance, although the results have broader implications for inferences about past selection pressures in general.     

Joint analysis for genome-wide association studies in family-based designs

In family-based data, association information can be partitioned into the between-family information and the within-family information. Based on this observation, Steen et al. (Nature Genetics. 2005, 683-691) proposed an interesting two-stage test for genome-wide association (GWA) studies under family-based designs which performs genomic screening and replication using the same data set. In the first stage, a screening test based on the between-family information is used to select markers. In the second stage, an association test based on the within-family information is used to test association at the selected markers. However, we learn from the results of case-control studies (Skol et al. Nature Genetics. 2006, 209-213) that this two-stage approach may be not optimal. In this article, we propose a novel two-stage joint analysis for GWA studies under family-based designs. For this joint analysis, we first propose a new screening test that is based on the between-family information and is robust to population stratification. This new screening test is used in the first stage to select markers. Then, a joint test that combines the between-family information and within-family information is used in the second stage to test association at the selected markers. By extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate that the joint analysis always results in increased power to detect genetic association and is robust to population stratification.     

Assessing whether an allele can account in part for a linkage signal: the Genotype-IBD Sharing Test (GIST)

To fine map genes, investigators often test for disease-marker association in chromosomal regions with evidence for linkage. Given a marker allele tentatively associated with disease, one would ask if this allele, or one in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with it, could account in part for the observed linkage signal. This question can be addressed by determining if families selected on the basis of the presence of the tentatively associated allele show stronger evidence of linkage as measured by increased allele sharing identical by descent (IBD) by affected family members. However, common selection strategies can be biased for or against linkage in the marker region, even given no disease-marker association. We define unbiased selection schemes and extend the definition to allow weighted selection on the basis of all genotyped family members. For affected-sibship data, we describe three genotype-based weight variables, corresponding to dominant, recessive, and additive models. We then introduce a test for association of a family weight variable with excess IBD sharing. This test allows us to determine if the linkage signal in a region can be attributed in part to the presence of a marker allele, either because of direct involvement in disease etiology or because of LD with a predisposing genetic variant. For samples of 500 affected sib pairs, the tests are powerful in detection of genotype-IBD sharing association, even for disease models with sib relative risk as low as lambda S=1.1, or when evidence for linkage is absent because of sampling variation. This makes our method a new tool for detecting linkage as well as association, especially in regions harboring a candidate gene. We have implemented these methods in the software package GIST (Genotype-IBD Sharing Test).     

Frequency of alleles conferring resistance to the Bt toxins Cry1Ac and Cry2Ab in Australian populations of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an important lepidopteran pest of cotton (Gossypium spp.) in Australia and the Old World. From 2002, F2 screens were used to examine the frequency of resistance alleles in Australian populations of H. armigera to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) CrylAc and Cry2Ab, the two insecticidal proteins present in the transgenic cotton Bollgard II. At that time, Ingard (expressing Cry1Ac) cotton had been grown in Australia for seven seasons, and Bollgard II was about to be commercially released. The principal objective of our study was to determine whether sustained exposure caused an elevated frequency of alleles conferring resistance to Cry1Ac in a species with a track record of evolving resistance to conventional insecticides. No major alleles conferring resistance to Cry1Ac were found. The frequency of resistance alleles for Cry1Ac was <0.0003, with a 95% credibility interval between 0 and 0.0009. In contrast, alleles conferring resistance to Cry2Ab were found at a frequency of 0.0033 (0.0017, 0.0055). The first isolation of this allele was found before the widespread deployment of Bollgard II. For both toxins the experiment-wise detection probability was 94.4%. Our results suggest that alleles conferring resistance to Cry1Ac are rare and that a relatively high baseline frequency of alleles conferring resistance to Cry2Ab existed before the introduction of Bt cotton containing this toxin.     

Host mating system and the prevalence of disease in a plant population

A modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) host-pathogen model is used to determine the influence of plant mating system on the outcome of a host-pathogen interaction. Unlike previous models describing how interactions between mating system and pathogen infection affect individual fitness, this model considers the potential consequences of varying mating systems on the prevalence of resistance alleles and disease within the population. If a single allele for disease resistance is sufficient to confer complete resistance in an individual and if both homozygote and heterozygote resistant individuals have the same mean birth and death rates, then, for any parameter set, the selfing rate does not affect the proportions of resistant, susceptible or infected individuals at equilibrium. If homozygote and heterozygote individual birth rates differ, however, the mating system can make a difference in these proportions. In that case, depending on other parameters, increased selfing can either increase or decrease the rate of infection in the population. Results from this model also predict higher frequencies of resistance alleles in predominantly selfing compared to predominantly outcrossing populations for most model conditions. In populations that have higher selfing rates, the resistance alleles are concentrated in homozygotes, whereas in more outcrossing populations, there are more resistant heterozygotes.     

THE EVOLUTION OF SELECTIVE AGGRESSION CONDITIONED ON ALLORECOGNITION SPECIFICITY

Many sessile cnidarians deploy specialized structures while competing aggressively for living space. The initiation of aggression is often contingent on the relatedness of the interacting contestants; clonemates and close kin generally behave passively toward one another, whereas more distant relatives generally behave aggressively. Behavioral specificity of this sort requires that there be 1) an allorecognition system that can discriminate among subtle differences in cell-surface determinants and 2) a highly polymorphic genetic system that provides specific labels of relatedness (haplotypes or allotypes). The evoutionary models analyzed in this paper show that a population of individuals that behave aggressively only against haplotypically distinct individuals (discriminating phenotypes) will not be evolutionarily stable in the face of either unconditionally aggressive or unconditionally nonaggressive phenotypes. Furthermore, even if the discriminating trait were somehow fixed, the rare recognition alleles necessary to confer allotypic specificity could not become established through natural selection. Thus, allotypic specificity is unlikely to be maintained by individual selection acting directly through aggressive behavior. Other selective mechanisms might account for the evolution of allorecognition specificity. Allotypic polymorphism could be maintained by pleiotropic mechanisms in which rare alleles are favored by natural selection acting either on gametic incompatibility, pathogen resistance, or somatic fusion, rather than aggressive behavior per se. However, these mechanisms do not explain the maintenance of selective aggression based on allotypic differences. Alternatively, if aggressive members of a clone indirectly enhance the reproductive output or survival of the entire clone (or close relatives), then kin selection acting directly through aggressive behavior could favor allorecognition specificity. Choosing among these alternatives will require the development of more sophisticated theory and empirical analyses of the costs and benefits of aggression.     

Frequency and fitness cost of resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis in Chrysomela tremulae (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

The "high dose-refuge" (HDR) strategy is commonly recommended and currently used for delaying or preventing pest adaptation to transgenic plants producing Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins. The efficiency of this strategy depends, among other factors, on the initial frequency of Bt resistance alleles and on the fitness costs associated with these alleles. Two years ago, an allele conferring resistance to Bt poplar was detected in a French population of the poplar pest Chrysomela tremulae F. Although this pest had never been subjected to Bt selection pressure due to human activities, the frequency of this allele was estimated at 0.0037, with a 95% credible (CI) interval of 0.00045-0.0080. We investigated the frequency of this allele in a second sample of C. tremulae collected more than 500 km from the site of the initial population. The estimated frequency in this sample was 0.0113 (95% CI 0.0031-0.0247), reinforcing the conclusion that resistance to Bt plants may be present at detectable frequencies in pest populations before selection resulting from pest management by humans. The frequency of the Bt resistance allele over the two samples was 0.0049 (95% CI 0.0020-0.0091). We also followed five laboratory lines in which the frequency of this allele was initially fixed at 0.500. After five generations maintained on non-Bt poplar leaves, the frequency of this allele decreased in all lines, whereas allelic frequencies at a neutral locus were unaffected. Thus, the Bt resistance allele detected in French populations of C. tremulae is probably associated with a fitness cost.