Inbreeding and inbreeding avoidance in wild giant pandas

Inbreeding can have negative consequences on population and individual fitness, which could be counteracted by inbreeding avoidance mechanisms. However, the inbreeding risk and inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in endangered species are less studied. The giant panda, a solitary and threatened species, lives in many small populations and suffers from habitat fragmentation, which may aggravate the risk of inbreeding. Here, we performed long‐term observations of reproductive behaviour, sampling of mother–cub pairs and large‐scale genetic analyses on wild giant pandas. Moderate levels of inbreeding were found in 21.1% of mating pairs, 9.1% of parent pairs and 7.7% of panda cubs, but no high‐level inbreeding occurred. More significant levels of inbreeding may be avoided passively by female‐biased natal dispersal rather than by breeding dispersal or active relatedness‐based mate choice mechanisms. The level of inbreeding in giant pandas is greater than expected for a solitary mammal and thus warrants concern for potential inbreeding depression, particularly in small populations isolated by continuing habitat fragmentation, which will reduce female dispersal and increase the risk of inbreeding.     

Long‐term decline despite conservation efforts questions Eurasian Stone‐curlew population viability in intensive farmlands

Agricultural intensification over the past decades has led to a generalized decline in farmland biodiversity. Farmland birds are particularly exposed to rapid changes in habitat and reduced food resources or availability. Understanding how farmland specialists can be preserved and their populations enhanced are major challenges for this century. Based on a long‐term (19‐year) study of a Eurasian Stone‐curlew Burhinus oedicnemus population, we estimated the demographic parameters, including clutch size, egg volume, hatching success, survival rate and apparent population size. Demographic rates found for this French population were, on average, comparable to those found elsewhere in Europe. However, all demographic parameters showed negative trends, including a dramatic decline in the local population (26% decline over 14 years) and a 10% decline in adult survival rate over 11 years. Such a long‐term decline, despite on‐going conservation efforts, calls into question the overall sustainability of arable Stone‐curlew populations. We infer some of the possible causes of this decline, in particular food shortage, and discuss how this pattern could be reversed through conservation measures applicable at very large spatial scales.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

Demographic buffering and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of disease in a wildlife population

Demographic buffering allows populations to persist by compensating for fluctuations in vital rates, including disease‐induced mortality. Using long‐term data on a badger (Meles meles Linnaeus, 1758) population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, we built an integrated population model to quantify impacts of disease, density and environmental drivers on survival and recruitment. Badgers exhibit a slow life‐history strategy, having high rates of adult survival with low variance, and low but variable rates of recruitment. Recruitment exhibited strong negative density‐dependence, but was not influenced by disease, while adult survival was density independent but declined with increasing prevalence of diseased individuals. Given that reproductive success is not depressed by disease prevalence, density‐dependent recruitment of cubs is likely to compensate for disease‐induced mortality. This combination of slow life history and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of a naturally infected badger population and helps to explain the badger's role as a persistent reservoir of M. bovis.     

Genetic structure among remnant populations of a migratory passerine,the Northern Wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe

Continuous animal populations often become fragmented due to anthropogenic habitat alterations. These small, fragmented populations are fragile due to demographic and genetic factors, whereas immigration can enhance their long‐term viability. Previously, we showed that high philopatry affected the local dynamics of three small and remnant subpopulations of Northern Wheatears in The Netherlands. Here, we show that these three populations together with an additional larger population in the European lowlands are highly genetically differentiated based on 22 microsatellite markers. In contrast, we found no evidence for differentiation using two mitochondrial DNA markers. An IMa2 analysis indicates that gene flow has occurred regularly among our sampled populations. As immigration of colour‐ringed birds among our sampled populations is rare at best, our results suggest that the populations have recently become isolated from one another. Low dispersal rates in highly mobile birds may occur when suitable habitat becomes highly fragmented, and will accentuate stochastic demographic processes and inbreeding, both reducing population viability. As dispersal rates are low among populations of Northern Wheatears in The Netherlands, there is only a small probability of recolonization of habitat patches where populations have become locally extinct.     

Evolutionary and ecological traps for brown bears Ursus arctos in human‐modified landscapes

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Unsustainable anthropogenic mortality disrupts natal dispersal and promotes inbreeding in leopards

Anthropogenic mortality of wildlife is typically inferred from measures of the absolute decline in population numbers. However, increasing evidence suggests that indirect demographic effects including changes to the age, sex, and social structure of populations, as well as the behavior of survivors, can profoundly impact population health and viability. Specifically, anthropogenic mortality of wildlife (especially when unsustainable) and fragmentation of the spatial distribution of individuals (home‐ranges) could disrupt natal dispersal mechanisms, with long‐term consequences to genetic structure, by compromising outbreeding behavior and gene flow. We investigate this threat in African leopards (Panthera pardus pardus), a polygynous felid with male‐biased natal dispersal. Using a combination of spatial (home‐range) and genetic (21 polymorphic microsatellites) data from 142 adult leopards, we contrast the structure of two South African populations with markedly different histories of anthropogenically linked mortality. Home‐range overlap, parentage assignment, and spatio‐genetic autocorrelation together show that historical exploitation of leopards in a recovering protected area has disrupted and reduced subadult male dispersal, thereby facilitating opportunistic male natal philopatry, with sons establishing territories closer to their mothers and sisters. The resultant kin‐clustering in males of this historically exploited population is comparable to that of females in a well‐protected reserve and has ultimately led to localized inbreeding. Our findings demonstrate novel evidence directly linking unsustainable anthropogenic mortality to inbreeding through disrupted dispersal in a large, solitary felid and expose the genetic consequences underlying this behavioral change. We therefore emphasize the importance of managing and mitigating the effects of unsustainable exploitation on local populations and increasing habitat fragmentation between contiguous protected areas by promoting in situ recovery and providing corridors of suitable habitat that maintain genetic connectivity.     

Effects of experimental population extinction for the spatial population dynamics of the butterfly Parnassius smintheus

While many studies have examined factors potentially impacting the rate of local population extinction, few experimental studies have examined the consequences of extinction for spatial population dynamics. Here we report results from a large‐scale, long‐term experiment examining the effects of local population extinction for the dynamics of surrounding populations. From 2001–2008 we removed all adult butterflies from two large, neighboring populations within a system of 17 subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus. Surrounding populations were monitored using individual, mark–recapture methods. We found that population removal decreased immigration to surrounding populations in proportion to their connectivity to the removed populations. Correspondingly, within‐generation population abundance declined. Despite these effects, we saw little consistent impact between generations. The extinction rates of surrounding populations were unaffected and local population growth was not consistently reduced by the lack of immigration. The broader results show that immigration affects local abundance within generations, but dynamics are mediated by density‐dependence within populations and by broader density‐independent factors acting between generations. The loss of immigrants resulting from extinction has little impact on the persistence of local populations in this system.     

Increases in residential and energy development are associated with reductions in recruitment for a large ungulate

Land‐use change due to anthropogenic development is pervasive across the globe and commonly associated with negative consequences for biodiversity. While land‐use change has been linked to shifts in the behavior and habitat‐use patterns of wildlife species, little is known about its influence on animal population dynamics, despite the relevance of such information for conservation. We conducted the first broad‐scale investigation correlating temporal patterns of land‐use change with the demographic rates of mule deer, an iconic species in the western United States experiencing wide‐scale population declines. We employed a unique combination of long‐term (1980–2010) data on residential and energy development across western Colorado, in conjunction with congruent data on deer recruitment, to quantify annual changes in land‐use and correlate those changes with annual indices of demographic performance. We also examined annual variation in weather conditions, which are well recognized to influence ungulate productivity, and provided a basis for comparing the relative strength of different covariates in their association with deer recruitment. Using linear mixed models, we found that increasing residential and energy development within deer habitat were correlated with declining recruitment rates, particularly within seasonal winter ranges. Residential housing had two times the magnitude of effect of any other factor we investigated, and energy development had an effect size similar to key weather variables known to be important to ungulate dynamics. This analysis is the first to correlate a demographic response in mule deer with residential and energy development at large spatial extents relevant to population performance, suggesting that further increases in these development types on deer ranges are not compatible with the goal of maintaining highly productive deer populations. Our results underscore the significance of expanding residential development on mule deer populations, a factor that has received little research attention in recent years, despite its rapidly increasing footprint across the landscape.     

Long‐term ‘islands’ in the landscape: low gene flow,effective population size and genetic divergence in the shrub Hakea oldfieldii (Proteaceae)

The genetic structure of disjunct populations is determined by founding genetic properties, demographic processes, gene flow, drift and local selection. We aim to identify the genetic consequences of natural population disjunction at regional and local scales in Hakea oldfieldii using nuclear and plastid markers to investigate long‐term effective population sizes and gene flow, and patterns of diversity and divergence, among populations. Regional divergence was significant as shown by a consistent pattern in principal coordinates, neighbor‐joining and Bayesian analyses, but divergence at the local level was also significant with localized distribution of plastid haplotypes and populations clustering separately in Bayesian analyses. Historical, recent and first‐generation gene flow was low, suggesting that recent habitat fragmentation has not reduced gene migration significantly. Genetic bottlenecks were detected in three populations. Long‐term effective population size was significantly correlated with the number of alleles/locus and observed heterozygosity, but not with census population size, suggesting that the loss of diversity is associated with long‐term changes rather than recent fragmentation. Inbreeding coefficients were significant in only three populations, suggesting that the loss of diversity is linked to drift and bottlenecks associated with demographic processes (local extinction by fires) rather than inbreeding. Historical disjunction as a result of specific ecological requirements, contraction of habitats following drying during the Pleistocene, low gene flow and changes in population size are likely to have been important forces driving divergence through isolation by distance and drift. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 179 , 319–334.     

The Impact of Roads on the Demography of Grizzly Bears in Alberta

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species.     

A quadratic correlation between long‐term mean group size and group density in a cooperatively breeding passerine

Both mean group size (MGS) and mean group density (MGD) are critical indices to characterize a population of cooperatively breeding birds. When a population reaches its carrying capacity, both long‐term MGS and long‐term MGD will remain relatively stable. However, there has been little study of how these two variables relate. The Masked laughingthrush Garrulax perspicillatus is a cooperatively breeding bird living in fragmented habitats. During 2010 and 2012‐2016, we used song playback to observe and confirm the group sizes and territory ranges of the birds and the data of bird presence to determine habitat suitability. By grouping the nearest territories according to their geographical coordinates, we divided the whole study area into 12 subareas and the whole population into 12 subpopulations. Then, we calculated both MGS and MGD for different time durations for each subpopulation. Finally, using MGD as independent variable and MGS as the dependent variable, we explored the correlations between MGS and MGD by fitting quadratic functions and modeling quadratic regression. Both MGS and MGD were averaged for different time durations and were cross‐related. Our results show that the MGS for more than 2 years significantly correlated with MGD for more than 3 years in a reverse parabolic shape, differing from that of short‐term effects. Our findings suggest that long‐term MGD is a better predictor of long‐term habitat quality and that long‐term MGS is determined by long‐term habitat quality in Masked Laughingthrushes. Based on above findings, we can infer that: (1) Long‐term habitat quality determines the long‐term MGS, but it sets no prerequisite for the status and source of group members; (2) Long‐term MGS in certain populations is adapted to the corresponding level of long‐term habitat quality, it facilitates us to predict the helper effects on current or future survival or reproduction in different situations. These findings and inferences are both helpful for us to understand the evolution of cooperative breeding.     

Cerulean Warblers in the Ozark region: habitat selection,breeding biology,survival, and space use

Cerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea) are a species with declining populations that exhibit regional variation in habitat selection and demographic rates. The Ozark region of the south‐central United States likely provides important habitat for Cerulean Warblers, but little is known about their breeding biology in that region. We studied Cerulean Warblers in riparian forests of the Ozarks of Arkansas from 2018 to 2020. We assessed multi‐scale habitat selection for vegetative and topographic features, documented their breeding biology, estimated within‐season and annual apparent survival, and estimated territory sizes. We found that Cerulean Warblers selected riparian habitat characterized by large‐diameter trees across all spatial scales. Contrary to the results of previous studies, males appeared to avoid white oaks (Quercus spp., Section Quercus) at the territory scale, but this avoidance may reflect an underlying preference for riparian habitat. Our logistic‐exposure estimate of nest survival (0.32; 85% confidence interval: 0.21–0.46) was similar to the median of estimates reported in previous studies. Our results indicate that maintaining riparian forests with large trees is important to provide suitable habitat for Cerulean Warblers in the Ozark region. Because of similarities in habitat selection among regions, some management practices from other populations, including retaining large trees and promoting a heterogeneous canopy structure, may be useful for managing for Cerulean Warblers in riparian areas of the Ozarks. However, selection for topography and tree species by Cerulean Warblers in our study also suggests that region‐specific management strategies will be beneficial. Finally, our demographic rate estimates for this population should prove valuable in future full‐annual‐cycle population modeling efforts.     

Density‐dependent regulation of the critically endangered black rhinoceros population in Ithala Game Reserve,South Africa

Ensuring the persistence of populations of endangered species requires an understanding of, and response to, the causes of population declines. Species occurring in small populations are vulnerable to stochastic problems that are environmental, demographic, or genetic in nature and can reduce survival as much as the deterministic threats of habitat degradation. Critically endangered black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) populations declined throughout Africa since 1960, with numbers steadily increasing at a continental level, but remaining lower than three generations ago. However, size, demographics, trends, and factors affecting these, are poorly known. We used 18 years (1990–2008) of long‐term sightings data from Ithala Game Reserve, KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa, to determine population estimates, growth rate and fecundity over time, as well as sex and age structure and age‐specific probabilities of survival. Calf survivorship between the ages of 0 and 1 year was 74% for females and 94% for males. Age‐specific survivorship for both sexes was significantly higher from yearling to subadult age‐classes (1–6 years) than for adults (7–30 years). The most frequent cause of mortality was attributed to unknown causes while fighting injuries was recorded as the second most common cause of mortality, particularly among subadult and adult males. There was no significant difference in the sex ratios at birth, although the proportion of females in the population was 0.58. There was strong evidence for density‐dependent regulation, with density in conception year a key driver of population performance (birth rate). The population does not appear to be at ecological carrying capacity; however, social effects are delaying conception. To mitigate density‐dependent social effects, we recommend an adaptive management strategy of pre‐selecting individuals for removal from the reserve, so as to maintain stability in the social organization of the population.     

A preliminary population viability analysis of the critically endangered blue‐eyed black lemur (Eulemur flavifrons)

Population viability analysis is an important tool to assess the extinction risk in small populations of highly specialized primates. The blue‐eyed black lemur (Eulemur flavifrons) is critically endangered with a restricted range in the north‐western dry deciduous forest of Madagascar, where habitat fragmentation and loss of forest connectivity threaten its survival. We performed a population viability analysis (PVA) of this lemur in Ankarafa Forest in the Sahamalaza Peninsula National Park, north‐western Madagascar, to determine the demographic parameters most influential for population persistence and to assess extinction probabilities. We conducted PVA analyses using different demographic parameters which characterize the species including reproduction, lifespan and population size using the software VORTEX for six scenarios with 100 iterations and simulated over 100 years. The simulations suggested the first extinction within 13 years when the percentage of habitat destruction increased up to 12%. Severe habitat destruction such as fire and logging was the major cause which led to the risk of population extinction. Conservation strategies, in particular measures to reduce habitat destruction, are proposed to ensure the survival of this critically endangered lemur.     

Pollen limitation and demographic structure in small fragmented populations of Brunsvigia radulosa (Amaryllidaceae)

The ecological consequences of disruptions in plant-pollinator mutualisms are poorly understood. We examined how seed production and recruitment of juveniles in populations of the spectacular grassland geophyte Brunsvigia radulosa (Amaryllidaceae) correlate with various indices of habitat fragmentation, including habitat fragment area, population size and population isolation. The species was found to be self-incompatible and adapted for pollination primarily by the long-proboscid fly Philoliche aethiopica (Tabanidae). In places where this fly is locally extinct, carpenter bees appear to act as substitute, though less effective, pollinators. Seed production in B. radulosa showed a significant positive relationship with population size, but not with habitat fragment area or spatial isolation of populations when all three indices of habitat fragmentation were included as predictor variables in multiple regression models. Reduced seed production in small populations was attributable to pollen limitation, as supplemental hand pollinations resulted in proportionally greater increases in seed production in these populations. Pollen limitation appears to have demographic consequences; specifically, the proportion of juvenile plants in populations showed significant positive relationships with current levels of seed production per plant and size of populations. Thus the long term persistence of small B. radulosa populations in habitat fragments may be threatened by a pollination deficit.     

Litter loss triggers estrus in a nonsocial seasonal breeder

Sexually selected infanticide (SSI) is often presumed to be rare among seasonal breeders, because it would require a near immediate return to estrus after the loss of an entire litter during the mating season. We evaluated changes in reproductive strategies and the reproductive fate of females that experienced litter loss during the mating season in a seasonal breeder with strong evidence for SSI, the brown bear. First, we used a long‐term demographic dataset (1986–2011) to document that a large majority of females (>91%) that lose their entire litter during the mating season in fact do enter estrus, mate, and give birth during the subsequent birthing season. Second, we used high‐resolution movement data (2005–2011) to evaluate how females changed reproductive strategies after losing their entire litter during the mating season. We hypothesized that females would shift from the sedentary lifestyle typical for females with cubs‐of‐the‐year to a roam‐to‐mate behavior typical for receptive females in no more than a few (~3) days after litter loss. We found that females with cubs‐of‐the‐year moved at about 1/3 of the rate and in a less bimodal diurnal pattern than receptive females during the mating season. The probability of litter loss was positively related with movement rate, suggesting that being elusive and sedentary is a strategy to enhance cub survival rather than a relic of cub mobility itself. The movement patterns of receptive females and females after litter loss were indistinguishable within 1–2 days after the litter loss, and we illustrate that SSI can significantly reduce the female interbirth interval (50–85%). Our results suggest that SSI can also be advantageous for males in seasonally breeding mammals. We propose that infanticide as a male reproductive strategy is more prevalent among mammals with reproductive seasonality than observed or reported.     

Evolution of sociality in spiders leads to depleted genomic diversity at both population and species levels

Across several animal taxa, the evolution of sociality involves a suite of characteristics, a “social syndrome,” that includes cooperative breeding, reproductive skew, primary female‐biased sex ratio, and the transition from outcrossing to inbreeding mating system, factors that are expected to reduce effective population size (Ne). This social syndrome may be favoured by short‐term benefits but come with long‐term costs, because the reduction in Ne amplifies loss of genetic diversity by genetic drift, ultimately restricting the potential of populations to respond to environmental change. To investigate the consequences of this social life form on genetic diversity, we used a comparative RAD‐sequencing approach to estimate genomewide diversity in spider species that differ in level of sociality, reproductive skew and mating system. We analysed multiple populations of three independent sister‐species pairs of social inbreeding and subsocial outcrossing Stegodyphus spiders, and a subsocial outgroup. Heterozygosity and within‐population diversity were sixfold to 10‐fold lower in social compared to subsocial species, and demographic modelling revealed a tenfold reduction in Ne of social populations. Species‐wide genetic diversity depends on population divergence and the viability of genetic lineages. Population genomic patterns were consistent with high lineage turnover, which homogenizes the genetic structure that builds up between inbreeding populations, ultimately depleting genetic diversity at the species level. Indeed, species‐wide genetic diversity of social species was 5–8 times lower than that of subsocial species. The repeated evolution of species with this social syndrome is associated with severe loss of genomewide diversity, likely to limit their evolutionary potential.     

Does forest extent affect salamander survival? Evidence from a long‐term demographic study of a tropical newt

Forest loss has been associated with reduced survival in many vertebrates, and previous research on amphibians has mostly focused on effects at early life stages. Paramesotriton hongkongensis is a tropical newt that breeds in streams but spends up to 10 months per year in terrestrial habitats. Populations are threatened by habitat degradation and collection for the pet trade, but the cryptic terrestrial lifestyle of this newt has limited our understanding of its population ecology, which inhibits development of a species‐specific conservation plan. We conducted an eight‐year (2007–2014) mark–recapture study on four P. hongkongensis populations in Hong Kong and used these data to evaluate relationships between forest cover, body size, and rainfall on survival and to estimate population sizes. Hong Kong has been subjected to repeated historic territory‐wide deforestation, and thus, we wanted to determine whether there was a link between forest extent as a proxy of habitat quality and newt demography. Annual survival was positively associated with forest cover within core habitat of all populations and negatively related to body size. Mean annual survival (~60%) was similar to that of other stream‐dwelling amphibians, but varied among years and declined substantially in 2012–2013, perhaps due to illegal collection. Despite the link between forest extent and survival, population sizes declined at the most forested site by 40% and increased by 104% and 134% at two others. Forest protection and consequential secondary succession during recent decades in Hong Kong may have been responsible for persistence of P. hongkongensis populations.     

Climate change,phenology, and habitat degradation: drivers of gosling body condition and juvenile survival in lesser snow geese

Nesting migratory geese are among the dominant herbivores in (sub) arctic environments, which have undergone unprecedented increases in temperatures and plant growing days over the last three decades. Within these regions, the Hudson Bay Lowlands are home to an overabundant breeding population of lesser snow geese that has dramatically damaged the ecosystem, with cascading effects at multiple trophic levels. In some areas the overabundance of geese has led to a drastic reduction in available forage. In addition, warming of this region has widened the gap between goose migration timing and plant green‐up, and this ‘mismatch’ between goose and plant phenologies could in turn affect gosling development. The dual effects of climate change and habitat quality on gosling body condition and juvenile survival are not known, but are critical for predicting population growth and related degradation of (sub) arctic ecosystems. To address these issues, we used information on female goslings marked and measured between 1978 and 2005 (4125 individuals). Goslings that developed within and near the traditional center of the breeding colony experienced the effects of long‐term habitat degradation: body condition and juvenile survival declined over time. In newly colonized areas, however, we observed the opposite pattern (increase in body condition and juvenile survival). In addition, warmer than average winters and summers resulted in lower gosling body condition and first‐year survival. Too few plant ‘growing days’ in the spring relative to hatch led to similar results. Our assessment indicates that geese are recovering from habitat degradation by moving to newly colonized locales. However, a warmer climate could negatively affect snow goose populations in the long‐run, but it will depend on which seasons warm the fastest. These antagonistic mechanisms will require further study to help predict snow goose population dynamics and manage the trophic cascade they induce.