Range-Wide Piping Plover Survival: Correlated Patterns and Temporal Declines

ABSTRACT Geographically isolated breeding populations of migratory shorebirds may be demographically connected through shared nonbreeding habitats. We used long-term (1998–2008) mark-recapture data on piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) collected from 7 separate studies located throughout North America to conduct a range-wide analysis of after hatch year apparent survival (φ_AHY). Our objectives were to compare concurrent survival estimates from disparate breeding sites and determine whether estimates followed similar trends or were correlated among breeding populations with shared wintering grounds. Average survival estimates were higher for Great Plains populations (range = 0.69–0.81) than for Great Lakes and Atlantic Coast populations (range = 0.56–0.71). Linear trend models indicated that apparent survival declined in 4 out of 7 populations, was unchanged in 3, and was generally highest among Great Plains populations. Based on a post hoc analysis, we found evidence of correlated year-to-year fluctuations in annual survival among populations wintering primarily along the southeastern United States Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast. Our results indicate shared overwintering or stopover sites may influence annual variation in survival among geographically disparate breeding populations. Declines in piping plover survival are a cause for concern, and our results highlight the need for conservation efforts to include habitat used during the migratory and wintering periods.     

Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland’s warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to analyze two mark–recapture datasets: 2006–2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003–2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland’s warbler and other Neotropical–Nearctic migratory bird species.     

Carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of a Neotropical migratory bird,the Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla

Population limitation models of migratory birds have sought to include impacts from events across the full annual cycle. Previous work has shown that events occurring in winter result in some individuals transitioning to the breeding grounds earlier or in better physical condition than others, thereby affecting reproductive success (carry‐over effects). However, evidence for carry‐over effects from breeding to wintering grounds has been shown less often. We used feather corticosterone (CORT_f) levels of the migratory Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla as a measure of the physiological state of birds at the time of moult on the breeding territory to investigate whether carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of this stream‐obligate bird. We show that birds arriving on wintering grounds with lower CORT_f scores, indicating reduced energetic challenges or stressors at the time of moult, occupied higher quality territories, and that these birds then achieved a better body condition during the overwinter period. Body condition, in turn, was important in determining whether adult birds returned the following winter, with birds in better condition returning at higher rates. Together these data suggest a carry‐over effect from the breeding grounds to the wintering grounds that is further extended with respect to annual return rates. Very few other studies have linked conditions during the previous breeding season with latent effects during the subsequent overwintering period or with annual survival. This study shows that the effects of variation in energetic challenges or stressors can potentially carry over from the natal stream and accumulate over more than one life‐history period before being manifested in reduced survival. This is of particular relevance to models of population limitation in migratory birds.     

High within‐winter and annual survival rates in a declining Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird suggest that wintering conditions do not limit populations

For migratory birds, it is necessary to estimate annual and overwinter survival rates, identify factors that influence survival, and assess whether survival varies with age and sex if we are to understand population dynamics and thus inform conservation. This study is one of the first to document overwinter and annual survival from the wintering grounds of a declining Afro‐Palaearctic migrant bird, the Whinchat Saxicola rubetra. We monitored a population of marked individuals for which dispersal was low and detectability was high, allowing accurate estimates of survival. Annual survival was at least 52% and did not differ significantly across demographic groups or with habitat characteristics or residency time in the previous winter. Overwinter survival was very high and monthly survival at least 98% at some sites. Although winter residency varied spatially and with age, lower residency did not correlate with reduced annual survival, suggesting occupancy of multiple wintering sites rather than higher winter mortality of individuals with shorter residency. Our results suggest that mortality occurs primarily outside the wintering period, probably during migration, and that wintering conditions have minimal influence on survival. The similarity between survival rates for all age and sex classes when measured on the wintering grounds implies that any difference in survival with age or sex occurs only during the first migration or during the post‐fledging stage, and that selection of wintering habitat, or territory quality, makes little difference to survival in Whinchats. Our findings suggest that the wintering grounds do not limit populations as much as the migratory and breeding stages, with implications for the conservation of declining Afro‐Palaearctic migrants more widely.     

Demographic variation in timing and intensity of feather molt in migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana)

Understanding the annual cycle of migratory birds is imperative for evaluating the evolution of life‐history strategies and developing effective conservation strategies. Yet, we still know little about the annual cycle of migratory birds that breed at south‐temperate latitudes of South America. We aged, sexed, and determined the progression and intensity of body, remige, and rectrix molt of migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana) at breeding sites in southern South America and at wintering sites in northern South America. Molt of both body and flight feathers occurred primarily during the winter. In early winter, a similar proportion of young and adult flycatchers molted remiges and rectrices, but remige molt intensity (number of remiges molting) was greater and primary molt progression (mean primary feather molting) more advanced in adults. In late winter, remige molt intensity and primary molt progression did not differ between age groups. We found no difference between males and females either in the proportion of individuals molting in winter or in the intensity or progress of remige molt. Our results suggest that the nominate subspecies of Fork‐tailed Flycatcher undergoes one complete, annual molt on the wintering grounds, and represents the first comprehensive evaluation of molt timing of a migratory New World flycatcher that overwinters in the tropics. Given that breeding, molt, and migration represent three key events in the annual cycle of migratory birds, knowledge of the timing of these events is the first step toward understanding the possible tradeoffs migratory birds face throughout the year.     

Climatic conditions during outward migration affect apparent survival of an arctic top predator,the peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus

In long‐lived species, population growth rate is highly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Despite the growing concerns regarding recent climate changes, few studies have investigated the effect of climatic conditions on survival in long‐lived wildlife that are either resident or breed in the Arctic. In this study, we evaluated the effect of climate across the annual life cycle (breeding, outward migration, wintering, and inward migration) on apparent annual survival of arctic‐breeding peregrine falcons. From 1982 to 2008, peregrine falcons breeding near Rankin Inlet, Nunavut, Canada were monitored, in part, to assess apparent annual survival (the product of true survival and site fidelity) using re‐observations of marked individuals. Our study indicated that apparent annual survival of adult peregrine falcons was correlated with indices of climatic conditions during outward migration (i.e., flight from the Arctic breeding grounds). These climatic indices (fall NAO of the current year and fall NAO with a lag of one year) explained 35% of the temporal variation in apparent annual survival of peregrine falcons. Our results suggest that this top‐predator is vulnerable to weather‐related environmental conditions encountered during fall migration.     

Disentangling the effects of environmental conditions on wintering and breeding grounds on age‐specific survival rates in a trans‐Saharan migratory raptor

Migratory species are subject to environmental variability occurring on breeding and wintering grounds. Estimating the relative contribution of environmental factors experienced sequentially during breeding and wintering, and their potential interaction, to the variation of survival is crucial to predict population viability of migratory species. Here we investigated this issue for the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, a trans‐Saharan migrant. We analysed capture–recapture data from a 29‐year long monitoring of wing‐tagged offspring and adults at two study sites in France (Rochefort‐RO and Maine‐et‐Loire‐ML). The study period covers a climatic shift occurring in the Sahel with increasing rainfall following a period of droughts (Sahel greening). We found that harriers’ adult survival in RO (between 1988 and 2005) varied over time and was sensitive to the interaction between the amount of rainfall in the Sahel and the annual mean breeding success, two proxies of prey availability. The occurrence of adverse conditions on breeding and wintering grounds in the same year decreased survival from 0.70–0.77 to 0.48 ± 0.05. Juvenile survival in RO was slightly more sensitive to conditions in Europe than in the Sahel. Unexpectedly, lower survival rates were found in years with higher mean breeding success, suggesting compensatory density feedbacks may operate. By contrast, adult survival in ML, monitored between 1999 and 2017, was higher compared to RO (0.76 ± 0.03 versus 0.66 ± 0.02), remained constant and unaffected by any proxy of prey availability. This difference seems consistent with the fact that harriers in ML experienced better and especially less variable environmental conditions during breeding and wintering seasons compared to RO. Overall, we showed that survival of a migratory bird is sensitive to the level of variability in environmental conditions and that adverse conditions on wintering grounds can amplify the negative effects of conditions during the previous breeding season on birds’ survival.     

Tropical winter habitat limits reproductive success on the temperate breeding grounds in a migratory bird

Identifying the factors that control population dynamics in migratory animals has been constrained by our inability to track individuals throughout the annual cycle. Using stable carbon isotopes, we show that the reproductive success of a long-distance migratory bird is influenced by the quality of habitat located thousands of kilometres away on tropical wintering grounds. For male American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla), winter habitat quality influenced arrival date on the breeding grounds, which in turn affected key variables associated with reproduction, including the number of young fledged. Based on a winter-habitat model, females occupying high-quality winter habitat were predicted to produce more than two additional young and to fledge offspring up to a month earlier compared with females wintering in poor-quality habitat. Differences of this magnitude are highly important considering redstarts are single brooded, lay clutches of only three to five eggs and spend only two-and-a-half months on the breeding grounds. Results from this study indicate the importance of understanding how periods of the annual cycle interact for migratory animals. Continued loss of tropical wintering habitat could have negative effects on migratory populations in the following breeding season, minimizing density-dependent effects on the breeding grounds and leading to further population declines. If conservation efforts are to be successful, strategies must incorporate measures to protect all the habitats used during the entire annual cycle of migratory animals.     

Wind Speed during Migration Influences the Survival,Timing of Breeding,and Productivity of a Neotropical Migrant,Setophaga petechia

Over the course of the annual cycle, migratory bird populations can be impacted by environmental conditions in regions separated by thousands of kilometers. We examine how climatic conditions during discrete periods of the annual cycle influence the demography of a nearctic-neotropical migrant population of yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia), that breed in western Canada and overwinter in Mexico. We demonstrate that wind conditions during spring migration are the best predictor of apparent annual adult survival, male arrival date, female clutch initiation date and, via these timing effects, annual productivity. We find little evidence that conditions during the wintering period influence breeding phenology and apparent annual survival. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic conditions experienced by migrants during the migratory period and indicates that geography may play a role in which period most strongly impacts migrant populations.     

Comparing the seasonal survival of resident and migratory oystercatchers: carry‐over effects of habitat quality and weather conditions

Events happening in one season can affect life‐history traits at (the) subsequent season(s) by carry‐over effects. Wintering conditions are known to affect breeding success, but few studies have investigated carry‐over effects on survival. The Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus is a coastal wader with sedentary populations at temperate sites and migratory populations in northern breeding grounds of Europe. We pooled continental European ringing‐recovery datasets from 1975 to 2000 to estimate winter and summer survival rates of migrant and resident populations and to investigate long‐term effects of winter habitat changes. During mild climatic periods, adults of both migratory and resident populations exhibited survival rates 2% lower in summer than in winter. Severe winters reduced survival rates (down to 25% reduction) and were often followed by a decline in survival during the following summer, via short‐term carry‐over effects. Habitat changes in the Dutch wintering grounds caused a reduction in food stocks, leading to reduced survival rates, particularly in young birds. Therefore, wintering habitat changes resulted in long‐term (>10 years) 8.7 and 9.4% decrease in adult annual survival of migrant and resident populations respectively. Studying the impact of carry‐over effects is crucial for understanding the life history of migratory birds and the development of conservation measures.     

Population response to environmental productivity throughout the annual cycle in a migratory songbird

Environmental factors affect migratory animal populations in every phase of their annual cycle and have significant impacts on breeding success and survival. The Breeding Bird Survey provides a long-term database for examining population trends in North American birds, allowing us to examine large-scale environmental factors that influence population abundance. We examined plant productivity as measured by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) over a 24-year period from 1983–2006 in bird conservation regions (BCRs) that overlapped Bullock's oriole (Icterus bullockii) breeding, moult, and wintering ranges to ask whether plant productivity in 1 year influences population abundance in the subsequent breeding season. Bullock's orioles have a moult-migration strategy, with a stopover moult in the Mexican monsoon region, which necessitates examining each stationary phase of the bird's annual cycle to understand the impacts of environmental factors on population abundance. Our results show increased breeding abundance in three (Great Basin, Coastal California and Shortgrass Prairies) of the six BCRs in which the species breeds following years with high NDVI values. We did not detect a response of breeding abundance to high NDVI values in the previous year in either the moulting region or in their primary over-wintering area in central Mexico. Our results demonstrate that large-scale annual variation in primary productivity on the breeding grounds can have an impact on breeding abundance in the following season, but further studies on migratory connectivity and on ecological mechanisms during the non-breeding seasons are needed to understand why we did not detect an influence of productivity during these periods.     

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.     

Broad wintering range and intercontinental migratory divide within a core population of the near‐threatened pallid harrier

Aim To identify the migration routes and wintering grounds of the core populations of the near‐threatened pallid harrier, Circus macrourus, and highlight conservation needs associated with these phases of the annual cycle. Location Breeding area: north‐central Kazakhstan; Wintering areas: Sahel belt (Burkina Faso to Ethiopia) and north‐west India. Methods We used ring recovery data from Kazakhstan and satellite tracking data from 2007 to 2008 on six adults breeding in north‐central Kazakhstan to determine migration routes and locate wintering areas. In addition, one first‐year male was tagged in winter 2007–2008 in India. Results Data evidenced an intercontinental migratory divide within the core pallid harrier population, with birds wintering in either Africa or India. The six individuals tagged in north‐central Kazakhstan followed a similar route (west of the Caspian Sea and Middle East) towards east Africa, before spreading along the Sahel belt to winter either in Sudan, Ethiopia, Niger or Burkina Faso. Spring migration followed a shorter, more direct route, with marked interindividual variation. The bird tagged in India spent the summer in central Kazakhstan. Half of the signal losses (either because of failure or bird mortality) occurred on the wintering areas and during migration. Main conclusions Our study shows that birds from one breeding area may winter over a strikingly broad range within and across continents. The intercontinental migratory divide of pallid harriers suggests the coexistence of distinct migratory strategies within the core breeding population, a characteristic most likely shared by a number of threatened species in central Asia. Conservation strategies for species like the pallid harrier, therefore, require considering very large spatial scales with possibly area‐specific conservation issues. We highlight urgent research priorities to effectively inform the conservation of these species.     

Trends in annual and seasonal survival of Pink-footed Geese Anser brachyrhynchus

Adult Pink-footed Geese Anser brachyrhynchus from the Svalbard breeding population were neck-banded and resighted in staging and wintering areas outside the breeding season 1990–1999. We estimated annual and seasonal survival using capture–recapture statistical models. Mean annual survival was 0.829, declining over the study period from 0.90 to 0.79. The annual cycle was partitioned into three periods: summer (1 April–30 September), including both spring and autumn migration, autumn (1 October–31 December), including most shooting, and winter (1 January–31 March). The parsimonious model selected to describe seasonal survival included a declining trend in summer survival, constant autumn and winter survival with lower survival in the severe winter of 1996, and an additive effect of sex on summer and winter survival. Monthly survival was highest during winter. Decreasing summer survival was the main contributor to the overall decline in annual survival, and was attributed mainly to increasing natural mortality on the breeding grounds. Mean annual survival based on the seasonal survival probabilities was 0.835 for females and 0.805 for males. The effect of sex was most pronounced during summer and remains to be explained.     

Central European Greylag Geese Anser anser show a shortening of migration distance and earlier spring arrival over 60 years

Global climate change can cause pronounced changes in species? migratory behaviour. Numerous recent studies have demonstrated climate‐driven changes in migration distance and spring arrival date in waterbirds, but detailed studies based on long‐term records of individual recapture or re‐sighting events are scarce. Using re‐sighting data from 430 marked individuals spanning a 60‐year period (winters 1956/1957 to 2015/2016), we assessed patterns in migration distance and spring arrival date, wintering‐site fidelity and survival in the increasing central European breeding population of Greylag Geese Anser anser. We demonstrate a long‐term decrease in migration distance, changes in the wintering range caused by winter partial short‐stopping, and the earlier arrival of geese on their breeding grounds. Greylag Geese marked on central Europe moulting grounds have not been recorded wintering in Spain since 1986 or in Tunisia and Algeria since 2004. The migration distance and spring arrival of geese indicated an effect of temperature at the breeding site and values of the NAO index. Greylag Geese migrate shorter distances and arrive earlier in milder winters. We suggest that shifts in the migratory behaviour of Central European Greylag Geese are individual temperature‐dependent decisions to take advantage of wintering grounds becoming more favourable closer to their breeding grounds, allowing birds to acquire breeding territories earlier.     

Gulls can change their migratory behavior during lifetime

Migration is a widespread phenomenon among birds and is likely to be subject to strong selective pressures. Birds' annual routines and behaviors might be expected to change during their different life history stages, resulting in different, age‐related migration patterns. However, although migration has been the subject of many publications, age‐related differences in migration have received little attention. The present study examined age‐related changes in individual migration habits in lesser black‐backed gulls, Larus fuscus. We analyzed data from 10‐year (1998–2007) color‐ringing project in NW England, comprising more than 10 000 ringed individuals. Our results showed a latitudinal cline in age structure across the wintering range, with adults and gulls in their first breeding year wintering closer to the breeding grounds. Supporting this result we observed that individuals, as they get older, changed the migration behavior and winter closer to the breeding areas. Interestingly, we found no differences in survival rates across the wintering grounds. Thus differences in survival rates can not account for the latitudinal cline in age structure, and the observed findings seem to be best explained by the arrival time hypothesis, based on a mechanism whereby individuals are able to change their migratory behavior as result of the onset of sexual maturity and associated mating pressures.     

Survival during the Breeding Season: Nest Stage,Parental Sex,and Season Advancement Affect Reed Warbler Survival

Avian annual survival has received much attention, yet little is known about seasonal patterns in survival, especially of migratory passerines. In order to evaluate survival rates and timing of mortality within the breeding season of adult reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus), mark-recapture data were collected in southwest Poland, between 2006 and 2012. A total of 612 individuals (304 females and 308 males) were monitored throughout the entire breeding season, and their capture-recapture histories were used to model survival rates. Males showed higher survival during the breeding season (0.985, 95% CI: 0.941–0.996) than females (0.869, 95% CI: 0.727–0.937). Survival rates of females declined with the progression of the breeding season (from May to August), while males showed constant survival during this period. We also found a clear pattern within the female (but not male) nesting cycle: survival was significantly lower during the laying, incubation, and nestling periods (0.934, 95% CI: 0.898–0.958), when birds spent much time on the nest, compared to the nest building and fledgling periods (1.000, 95% CI: 1.00–1.000), when we did not record any female mortality. These data (coupled with some direct evidence, like bird corpses or blood remains found next to/on the nest) may suggest that the main cause of adult mortality was on-nest predation. The calculated survival rates for both sexes during the breeding season were high compared to annual rates reported for this species, suggesting that a majority of mortality occurs at other times of the year, during migration or wintering. These results have implications for understanding survival variation within the reproductive period as well as general trends of avian mortality.     

Photoperiod as a modifying and limiting factor in the expression of avian circannual rhythms

In three species of birds that migrate long distances, the annual rhythms of gonadal activity, molt, and migratory restlessness (Zugunruhe) persist for more than 1 year under certain constant conditions. The most important zeitgeber for these circannual rhythms is the annual cycle of photoperiod, which adjusts the overall period of circannual rhythms to exactly 1 year and also provides for the appropriate adjustment of seasonal activities to the temporal structure of the environment. This is illustrated by results on garden warblers (Sylvia borin) indicating that the longer photoperiods experienced by individuals wintering far south in the African wintering area phase-advance spring migration and the accompanying gonadal development, relative to those of individuals wintering further north. The rate of acceleration is, however, slow enough to prevent a reproductive cycle during the Southern Hemisphere summer. Hence, endogenous circannual components and zeitgeber stimuli constitute a functional entity that provides as a whole for adaptive temporal programming. This idea is further supported by findings in the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), in which a circannual rhythmicity persists only if photoperiod in winter is at least as short as that normally encountered by the species in its wintering grounds slightly north of the equator. In collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis), in contrast, rhythmicity continues under much longer photoperiods, consistent with the fact that the wintering area of this species extends to latitudes far south of the equator. It is proposed that the adaptive function of circannual rhythms can be properly understood only if their interactions with environmental factors, particularly those that play a role as zeitgebers, are analyzed in sufficient detail. The biological significance of circannual rhythms may be more apparent in the context of the environmental constraints limiting their expression than in the often rather restricted set of conditions sustaining spontaneous annual cyclicity.     

Resistance of flight feathers to mechanical fatigue covaries with moult strategy in two warbler species

Flight feather moult in small passerines is realized in several ways. Some species moult once after breeding or once on their wintering grounds; others even moult twice. The adaptive significance of this diversity is still largely unknown. We compared the resistance to mechanical fatigue of flight feathers from the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, a migratory species moulting once on its breeding grounds, with feathers from the willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus, a migratory species moulting in both its breeding and wintering grounds. We found that flight feathers of willow warblers, which have a shaft with a comparatively large diameter, become fatigued much faster than feathers of chiffchaffs under an artificial cyclic bending regime. We propose that willow warblers may strengthen their flight feathers by increasing the diameter of the shaft, which may lead to a more rapid accumulation of damage in willow warblers than in chiffchaffs.     

Climate and density influence annual survival and movement in a migratory songbird

Assessing the drivers of survival across the annual cycle is important for understanding when and how population limitation occurs in migratory animals. Density‐dependent population regulation can occur during breeding and nonbreeding periods, and large‐scale climate cycles can also affect survival throughout the annual cycle via their effects on local weather and vegetation productivity. Most studies of survival use mark–recapture techniques to estimate apparent survival, but true survival rates remain obscured due to unknown rates of permanent emigration. This is especially problematic when assessing annual survival of migratory birds, whose movement between breeding attempts, or breeding dispersal, can be substantial. We used a multistate approach to examine drivers of annual survival and one component of breeding dispersal (habitat‐specific movements) in a population of American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) over 11 years in two adjacent habitat types. Annual survival displayed a curvilinear relation to the Southern Oscillation Index, with lower survival during La Niña and El Niño conditions. Although redstart density had no impact on survival, habitat‐specific density influenced local movements between habitat types, with redstarts being less likely to disperse from their previous year's breeding habitat as density within that habitat increased. This finding was strongest in males and may be explained by conspecific attraction influencing settlement decisions. Survival was lowest in young males, but movement was highest in this group, indicating that apparent survival rates were likely biased low due to permanent emigration. Our findings demonstrate the utility of examining breeding dispersal in mark–recapture studies and complement recent work using spatially explicit models of dispersal probability to obtain greater accuracy in survival estimates.