A risk shadow in Spain

This paper describes a period of intense risk construction in Spain. By autumn 2000 there was a coincidence of different alarming events affecting Spanish society and widely covered by media. A feeling of risk extended all around and the Spanish political agenda was, for a time, dominated by risk issues. This paper tries to establish how useful the concept of 'risk shadow' can be in order to analyse the construction of risk in a global context. The narratives of risk seem to give this phenomenon its cultural consistency, because more than a scientific fact, risk construction is a cultural matter.     

Understanding predation risk and individual variation in risk avoidance for threatened boreal caribou

Predation risk is a driver of species’ distributions. Animals can increase risk avoidance in response to fluctuations in predation risk, but questions remain regarding individual variability and the capacity to respond to changes in spatial risk across human‐altered landscapes. In northeast British Columbia, Canada, boreal caribou populations declined as roads and seismic lines have increased, which are theorized to increase gray wolf predation. Our goal was to model risk and to evaluate individual variability and the development of risk perception by examining individual risk avoidance in response to reproductive status and age. We used locations from collared caribou and wolves to identify landscape features associated with the risk of a potential wolf‐caribou encounter and risk of being killed given an encounter. We built resource selection functions to estimate individual responses to risk. We used general linear regressions to evaluate individual risk and linear feature avoidance as a function of age and reproductive status (calf or no calf). Linear features increased the risk of encounter. Older caribou and caribou with calves demonstrated stronger avoidance of the risk of encounter and roads, but weaker avoidance in late summer to the risk of being killed relative to younger and calf‐less individuals. Mechanisms explaining the inverse relationships between the risk of encounter and risk of being killed are uncertain, but it is conceivable that caribou learn to avoid the risk of encounter and roads. Responses by females with vulnerable calves to the risk of encounter and risk of being killed might be explained by a trade‐off between these two risk types and a prioritization on the risk of encounter. Despite the capacity to alter their responses to risk, the global decline in Rangifer populations (caribou and wild reindeer) suggests these behaviors are insufficient to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic disturbances.     

Discrepancies between estimated and perceived risk of cancer among individuals with hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer

Communicating cancer risk and recommending adequate control programs is central for genetic counseling. Individuals affected by hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) are at about 80% life-time risk of colorectal cancer and for female carriers 40-60% risk of endometrial cancer and 10-15% risk of ovarian cancer. The perceived risk among mutation carriers may, however, deviate from the risk communicated and has been demonstrated to influence adherence to control programs. We investigated the perceived cancer risk among HNPCC mutation carriers (n = 47) and correlated the findings to individual characteristics. A perceived risk of colorectal cancer above 60% was reported by 22/45 individuals, and only one out of five mutation carriers reported a perceived risk > 80%. Female mutation carriers, individuals below age 50, and individuals who received their oncogenetic counseling within 1 year prior to the study reported higher, albeit not significantly, perceived risks of colorectal cancer. Higher perceived risks were also reported by individuals who had lost a parent to HNPCC-related cancer at early age, whereas individuals with a personal history of cancer did not report a higher perceived risk. Regarding gynecological cancer, 6/18 females reported a perceived risk of 40-60% for endometrial cancer, whereas the remaining women both underestimated and overestimated their risk, and none of the women referred to the risk of ovarian cancer. We conclude that despite educational efforts and an increasing amount of data on the cancer risk in HNPCC, a minority of the mutation carriers report a perceived risk at the same level as that communicated during oncogenetic counseling.     

基于GIS的渭河下游河流沿线区域生态风险评价

以渭河下游河流沿线区域为研究区,基于风险度量的基本原理和区域生态风险评价的流程框图,构建了综合生态风险值的计算模型,即综合生态风险值是综合风险概率、综合生态损失度和综合社会经济易损度的叠加.在研究区历史资料考证和2002年ETM+遥感影像景观分类的基础上,通过选取干旱、洪水、污染和水土流失,利用地理信息系统和现代地理学中的大量数学方法,按照评价步骤和计算模型,将研究区4种生态风险源综合评价结果划分为低风险区,较低风险区,中等风险区,较高风险区和高风险区5个级别.研究结果为环境管理和生态风险决策提供数量化的理论依据和数据支持.     

Adolescent fertility and risky environments: a population-level perspective across the lifespan

Timing of first reproduction is a key life-history variable with important implications for global economic development and health. Life-history theory predicts that human reproductive strategies are shaped by mortality regimes. This study provides the first test of the relationship between population-level adolescent fertility (AF) and extrinsic risk at two time points. Data are from United Nations database and were analysed using mediation and moderation techniques. The goals were to determine whether (i) early risk has a stronger impact on fertility than current risk; (ii) current risk mediates the relationship between early risk and fertility outcomes; and (iii) different levels of early risk influence the relationship between current risk and fertility. Results indicated that current risk partially mediated the relationship between early risk and fertility, with early risk having the strongest impact on reproduction. Measures for early and current mortality did not show significant interaction effects. However, a series of separate regression analyses using a quantile split of early risk indicated that high levels of early risk strengthened the relationship between current risk and AF. Overall, these findings demonstrate that reproductive strategies are significantly influenced by fluctuations of early mortality as well as current environmental cues of harshness.     

Objective and Perceived Risk Estimates of Travel Modes in the Norwegian Public

The aim of this study was to identify groups of travel mode users, based on objective risk estimates, and examine overall differences in demographic characteristics, perceived risk, worry, perceived control when using travel modes, trust in authorities, and safety motivation. The results were based on a self-completion questionnaire survey about risk perception and travel mode use in a representative sample of the Norwegian public (n = 1864). In addition, aggregate-level data on accidents in transport were used to establish the “objective risk” for various travel modes. The respondents were split into two clusters. The first cluster was characterized by a relatively greater objective risk for accidents related to public travel modes as well as related to being a pedestrian, while the second cluster was characterized by a higher risk level related to motorized private modes of transportation. There was a significant overall difference in the risk estimates among the members of the two clusters. There was also an overall difference in risk perception and other risk-related judgments due to which risk estimate-based cluster the respondents belonged. Associations between objective risk estimates, perceived risk, and worry are discussed in relation to cluster differences in objective risk.     

Semiparametric methods for evaluating risk prediction markers in case-control studies

The performance of a well-calibrated risk model for a binary disease outcome can be characterized by the population distribution of risk and displayed with the predictiveness curve. Better performance is characterized by a wider distribution of risk, since this corresponds to better risk stratification in the sense that more subjects are identified at low and high risk for the disease outcome. Although methods have been developed to estimate predictiveness curves from cohort studies, most studies to evaluate novel risk prediction markers employ case-control designs. Here we develop semiparametric methods that accommodate case-control data. The semiparametric methods are flexible, and naturally generalize methods previously developed for cohort data. Applications to prostate cancer risk prediction markers illustrate the methods.     

Spatial Partitioning of Predation Risk in a Multiple Predator-Multiple Prey System

ABSTRACT Minimizing risk of predation from multiple predators can be difficult, particularly when the risk effects of one predator species may influence vulnerability to a second predator species. We decomposed spatial risk of predation in a 2-predator, 2-prey system into relative risk of encounter and, given an encounter, conditional relative risk of being killed. Then, we generated spatially explicit functions of total risk of predation for each prey species (elk [Cervus elaphus] and mule deer [Odocoileus hemionus]) by combining risks of encounter and kill. For both mule deer and elk, topographic and vegetation type effects, along with resource selection by their primary predator (cougars [Puma concolor] and wolves [Canis lupus], respectively), strongly influenced risk of encounter. Following an encounter, topographic and vegetation type effects altered the risk of predation for both ungulates. For mule deer, risk of direct predation was largely a function of cougar resource selection. However, for elk, risk of direct predation was not only a function of wolf occurrence, but also of habitat attributes that increased elk vulnerability to predation following an encounter. Our analysis of stage-based (i.e., encounter and kill) predation indicates that the risk effect of elk shifting to structurally complex habitat may ameliorate risk of direct predation by wolves but exacerbate risk of direct predation by cougars. Information on spatiotemporal patterns of predation will be become increasingly important as state agencies in the western United States face pressure to integrate predator and prey management.     

Affect-Laden Imagery and Risk Taking: The Mediating Role of Stress and Risk Perception

This paper investigates how affect-laden imagery that evokes emotional stress influences risk perception and risk taking in real-life scenarios. In a series of three studies, we instructed participants to imagine the consequences of risky scenarios and then rate the intensity of the experienced stress, perceived risk and their willingness to engage in risky behavior. Study 1 showed that people spontaneously imagine negative rather than positive risk consequences, which are directly related to their lower willingness to take risk. Moreover, this relationship was mediated by feelings of stress and risk perception. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings by showing that imagining negative risk consequences evokes psychophysiological stress responses observed in elevated blood pressure. Finally, in Study 3, we once again demonstrated that a higher intensity of mental images of negative risk consequences, as measured by enhanced brain activity in the parieto-occipital lobes, leads to a lower propensity to take risk. Furthermore, individual differences in creating vivid and intense negative images of risk consequences moderated the strength of the relationship between risk perception and risk taking. Participants who created more vivid and intense images of negative risk consequences paid less attention to the assessments of riskiness in rating their likelihood to take risk. To summarize, we showed that feelings of emotional stress and perceived riskiness mediate the relationship between mental imagery and risk taking, whereas individual differences in abilities to create vivid mental images may influence the degree to which more cognitive risk assessments are used in the risk-taking process.     

Can primary prevention or selective screening for melanoma be more precisely targeted through general practice? A prospective study to validate a self administered risk score.

OBJECTIVES: To establish whether a questionnaire incorporating MacKie''s risk factor flow chart can identify patients at high risk for melanoma so that they can be targeted for primary and secondary prevention. To validate the risk score derived from the questionnaire and test the feasibility of self completion by comparing patients'' self reported skin characteristics with a skin examination performed by an experienced general practitioner. DESIGN: Prospective questionnaire survey followed by a comparative study. SETTING: 16 randomly selected group practices in a health district in Cheshire, United Kingdom. SUBJECTS: Questionnaire survey--3105 consecutive patients aged 16 years and over attending for a primary care consultation; comparative study--a self selected subsample of 388 of the 3,105 patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: MacKie risk group for melanoma. Comparison of high risk skin characteristics reported by patients and those noted during a skin examination by a doctor (kappa statistic). RESULTS: 4.3% of patients (87% women) were in the highest risk group and 4.4% (79% men) were in the second highest risk group, as defined by the MacKie score. Agreement between patients'' self appraisal of skin characteristics and clinical skin examinations was reflected in kappa values of 0.67 for freckles, 0.60 for moles, and 0.43 for atypical naevi. CONCLUSION: This questionnaire helped to identify a group at high risk for melanoma. Furthermore, good agreement was found when the patient''s risk scores were compared with results of the clinical skin examination. This risk score is potentially useful in targeting primary and secondary prevention of melanoma through general practice.     

矿区生态风险评价研究述评

作为世界上矿产资源最丰富的国家之一,我国的矿山开采活动在给经济发展注入强大拉动力的同时,也给矿区生态环境带来了巨大的生态风险。总结前人相关研究,在对比分析了矿区生态风险及其评价与区域生态风险评价异同的基础上,初步明晰矿区生态风险具有风险源的多样性、空间影响边界的模糊性、随空间距离的衰减性及时间累积的延续性等特性。目前矿区生态风险评价的矿区类型过多集中于金属矿区的重金属污染等单项风险,对综合生态风险评价的重视不充分,多基于景观格局、生态环境问题视角,结果多对斑块或生态系统风险评价进行拼接,欠缺基于空间异质性的整体综合;风险度量模型、指标体系法和空间分析法则是较为常用的矿区生态风险评价方法,但在模型模拟方面略显不足。基于现有研究进展,预期矿区独特性的体现、空间格局的关注、"3S"技术的综合应用、生态安全阈值的设定、不确定性表征、基于评价结果的风险规避等将有望成为未来研究的重点。     

Spatial clustering of average risks and risk trends in Bayesian disease mapping

Spatiotemporal disease mapping focuses on estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk across a set of nonoverlapping areal units over a fixed period of time. The key aim of such research is to identify areas that have a high average level of disease risk or where disease risk is increasing over time, thus allowing public health interventions to be focused on these areas. Such aims are well suited to the statistical approach of clustering, and while much research has been done in this area in a purely spatial setting, only a handful of approaches have focused on spatiotemporal clustering of disease risk. Therefore, this paper outlines a new modeling approach for clustering spatiotemporal disease risk data, by clustering areas based on both their mean risk levels and the behavior of their temporal trends. The efficacy of the methodology is established by a simulation study, and is illustrated by a study of respiratory disease risk in Glasgow, Scotland.     

Mating strategies in Chinese culture: female risk avoiding vs. male risk taking

Previous evolutionary literature demonstrating risk taking as a male mating strategy ignored cultural influences and the function of risk avoiding for women. The present research is the first to support the hypothesis that risk taking and risk avoiding, respectively, reflect Chinese male and female mating strategies. In Study 1, when under the impression of being watched by the opposite sex, Chinese men took more risks and women took fewer risks than when watched by a same sex or alone. In Study 2, Chinese male risk taking and female risk avoiding were positively related to their mating-related evaluation of the opposite-sex observer, and these results were reinforced by behavioral findings in Study 3. The implications of the findings regarding Chinese traditional mate preference and the evolutionary mechanism behind it are discussed.     

Ecological consequences of the bold–shy continuum: the effect of predator boldness on prey risk

Although the existence of different personality traits within and between animal populations has been relatively well established, the ecological implications of this variation remain neglected. In this study we tested whether differences in the boldness of pairs of three-spined sticklebacks led to differential predation risk in their prey, Chironomidae larvae. Bolder pairs, those that left a refuge and crossed the tank mid-line sooner, ate a greater proportion of prey in 10 min than less bold fish (therefore prey were at a greater per capita risk). Fish crossed the mid-line more rapidly when a larger number of prey were presented, suggesting they accepted greater risk in return for a larger foraging reward. Perception of predation risk also affected the differences between fish in boldness, as larger fish crossed the mid-line sooner after leaving the refuge (larger fish are less at risk from predation). Hence, an interesting trophic interaction occurs, where the risk experienced by the chironomid larvae is determined by the risk perceived by their predators. Through the variation generated by boldness, a form of behaviourally mediated trophic cascade can occur within (as well as between) communities.     

Breast and ovarian cancer incidence in BRCA1-mutation carriers. Breast Cancer Linkage Consortium.

Dominant predisposition to early-onset breast cancer and/or ovarian cancer in many families is known to be the result of germ-line mutations in a gene on chromosome 17q, known as BRCA1. In this paper we use data from families with evidence of linkage to BRCA1 to estimate the age-specific risks of breast and ovarian cancer in BRCA1-mutation carriers and to examine the variation in risk between and within families. Under the assumption of no heterogeneity of risk between families, BRCA1 is estimated to confer a breast cancer risk of 54% by age 60 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 27%-71%) and an ovarian cancer risk of 30% by age 60 years (95% CI 8%-47%). Similar lifetime-risk estimates are obtained by examining the risks of contralateral breast cancer and of ovarian cancer, in breast cancer cases in linked families. However, there is significant evidence of heterogeneity of risk between families; a much better fit to the data is obtained by assuming two BRCA1 alleles, one conferring a breast cancer risk of 62% and an ovarian cancer risk of 11% by age 60 years, the other conferring a breast cancer risk of 39% and an ovarian cancer risk of 42%, with the first allele representing 71% of all mutations (95% CI 55%-87%). There is no evidence of clustering of breast and ovarian cancer cases within families.     

Body Mass Index Genetic Risk Score and Endometrial Cancer Risk

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified common variants that predispose individuals to a higher body mass index (BMI), an independent risk factor for endometrial cancer. Composite genotype risk scores (GRS) based on the joint effect of published BMI risk loci were used to explore whether endometrial cancer shares a genetic background with obesity. Genotype and risk factor data were available on 3,376 endometrial cancer case and 3,867 control participants of European ancestry from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium GWAS. A BMI GRS was calculated by summing the number of BMI risk alleles at 97 independent loci. For exploratory analyses, additional GRSs were based on subsets of risk loci within putative etiologic BMI pathways. The BMI GRS was statistically significantly associated with endometrial cancer risk (P = 0.002). For every 10 BMI risk alleles a woman had a 13% increased endometrial cancer risk (95% CI: 4%, 22%). However, after adjusting for BMI, the BMI GRS was no longer associated with risk (per 10 BMI risk alleles OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.07; P = 0.78). Heterogeneity by BMI did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.06), and no effect modification was noted by age, GWAS Stage, study design or between studies (P≥0.58). In exploratory analyses, the GRS defined by variants at loci containing monogenic obesity syndrome genes was associated with reduced endometrial cancer risk independent of BMI (per BMI risk allele OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.96; P = 2.1 x 10⁻⁵). Possessing a large number of BMI risk alleles does not increase endometrial cancer risk above that conferred by excess body weight among women of European descent. Thus, the GRS based on all current established BMI loci does not provide added value independent of BMI. Future studies are required to validate the unexpected observed relation between monogenic obesity syndrome genetic variants and endometrial cancer risk.     

Longitudinal analysis of the dynamics and risk of coronary heart disease in the Framingham Study.

Statistical methods designed specifically for the analysis of chronic disease incidence and progression in longitudinal studies are presented. These method model the risk of acute phases of chronic disease separately from the temporal change in risk variables. This could be accomplished because, under a specific biological model of the disease mechanism, the problems of estimating the risk of an acute event and of predicting the change in risk variables are independent. Specifically, a quadratic equation relating risk variable values to chronic disease risk and a system of linear equations predicting future risk variable values from present values may beestimated separately. Taken together, they utilize the full information available in a longitudinal study on the temporal dimension of chronic disease progression. In addition, the model is found to possess a number of attractive statistical and theoretical properties. These methods are applied to longitudinal data from the Framingham Study on coronary heart disease (CHD) in males. A quadratic function relating the risk of a CHD event to selected risk variables (age, and the natural logarithms of serum cholesterol, uric acid, diastolic blood pressure and pulse pressure) was estimated from measurements made at four points equally spaced in time (two years) with a further morbidity follow-up at a fifth point. The risk function was found to predict CHD risk accurately. It showed that, apart from the linear effects of the risk variables, cohort effects, quadratic effects and interaction effects were important predictors of CHD risk. The linear regression equations used to predict future risk variable values showed that there was an intricate network of cross-temporal associations. Study of the two types of equations jointly show that putative risk variables could affect the risk of CHD incidence both directly, by being associated with higher levels of risk, and indirectly, by causing other risk variable values to change with time. The results led us to identify several different roles that risk variables might play in CHD incidence.     

Simultaneous interdisciplinary counseling in German breast/ovarian cancer families: first experiences with patient perceptions, surveillance behavior and acceptance of genetic testing

As part of a multicenter study supported by the German Mildred Scheel foundation we have established an interdisciplinary counseling setting for members of breast and/or ovarian cancer families. We offer simultaneous counseling by a team consisting of a geneticist, a gynecologist and a psycho-oncologist. Here we describe our counseling protocol and our first short-term experience with this interdisciplinary approach. Preliminary data on patient perceptions and behaviors in the context of DNA testing are reported. Overall, our counseling approach was perceived as beneficial both by the counselors and the consultants. A marked overestimation of the risk to develop breast and/or ovarian cancer was noted in the group of unaffected individuals from medium to low risk breast cancer families in contrast to an appropriate risk perception in members from high risk families. All participants shared many of the same expectations about genetic testing and counseling and appeared to base their decision-making about testing on the risk classification given by the genetic counselor. The reported participation in gynecological cancer prevention programs was high in all families at risk, but was less sufficient in unaffected as compared to affected persons. Although current data on BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation analyses render testing in medium to low risk individuals questionable, our findings emphasize the importance of genetic counseling and education in all risk categories of breast and/or ovarian cancer families.     

Developing a risk indicator to comparatively assess environmental risks posed by microbial and conventional pest control agents

Selected biological control agents and conventional pesticides were used to critically review the applicability of a newly developed Risk Indicator (RI) system. Five basic components are proposed for the calculation of the overall environmental risk score: persistence of the active ingredient, dispersal potential, range of non-target organisms that are affected, and direct and indirect effects on the ecosystem. Several risk measurement systems were reviewed; risk categories in the proposed system were modified from a model developed for classical biocontrol agents. Additionally, one new category was included, to assess the risks to vertebrate non-target species. Besides a detailed discussion of the new RI model, the suitability of the model was demonstrated by calculating the risk scores for 17 selected products. It became obvious that the environmental risk score varied greatly within the assessed chemical products, and also within the group of biological products. The use pattern greatly influenced the estimated environmental risk posed by any given product. The overall environmental risk score varied between a very low risk score of 24 (Coniothyrium minitans, soil application) and a near maximum risk score of 4275 (high risk reference DDT, foliar spray). The proposed model can be used to communicate environmental risk and to design lower risk integrated pest management strategies. It is suggested that the proposed RI system may serve to define low risk and reduced risk pesticides. Yet, it remains debatable whether the RI will be useful in determining acceptability of data waivers for regulatory purposes.     

Cats and dogs: A mesopredator navigating risk and reward provisioned by an apex predator

Successfully perceiving risk and reward is fundamental to the fitness of an animal, and can be achieved through a variety of perception tactics. For example, mesopredators may “directly” perceive risk by visually observing apex predators, or may “indirectly” perceive risk by observing habitats used by predators. Direct assessments should more accurately characterize the arrangement of risk and reward; however, indirect assessments are used more frequently in studies concerning the response of GPS‐marked animals to spatiotemporally variable sources of risk and reward. We investigated the response of a mesopredator to the presence of risk and reward created by an apex predator, where risk and reward likely vary in relative perceptibility (i.e., degree of being perceptible). First, we tested whether coyotes (Canis latrans) use direct or indirect assessments to navigate the presence of mountain lions (Puma concolor; risk) and kills made by mountain lions (reward) in an area where coyotes were a common prey item for mountain lions. Second, we assessed the behavioral response of coyotes to direct encounters with mountain lions. Third, we evaluated spatiotemporal use of carrion by coyotes at kills made by mountain lions. Indirect assessments generally outperformed direct assessments when integrating analyses into a unified framework; nevertheless, our ability to detect direct perception in navigating to mountain lion kills was likely restricted by scale and sampling limitations (e.g., collar fix rates, unsampled kill sites). Rather than responding to the risk of direct encounters with mountain lions, coyotes facilitated encounters by increasing their movement rate, and engaged in risky behavior by scavenging at mountain lion kills. Coyotes appear to mitigate risk by using indirect perception to avoid mountain lions. Our predator–predator interactions and insights are nuanced and counter to the conventional predator–prey systems that have generated much of the predation risk literature.