Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range with interannual and multidecadal‐scale climatic variation

Aim An understanding of past relationships between fire occurrence and climate variability will help to elucidate the implications of climate‐change scenarios for future patterns of wildfire. In the present study we investigate the relationships between subalpine‐zone fire occurrence and climate variability and broad‐scale climate patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans at both interannual and multidecadal time‐scales. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in the southern sector of the Rocky Mountain National Park, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range. Methods We compared years of widespread fire from AD 1650 to 1978 for the subalpine zone of southern Rocky Mountain National Park, with climate variables such as measures of drought, and indices such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results Years of extensive subalpine‐zone fires are significantly related to climate variability, phases of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO, as well as to phase combinations of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO at both interannual and centennial time‐scales. Main conclusions Years of extensive fires are related to extreme drought conditions and are significantly related to the La Niña phase of ENSO, the negative (cool) phase of the PDO, and the positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The co‐occurrence of the phase combination of La Niña‐negative PDO‐positive AMO is more important to fire occurrence than the individual influences of the climate patterns. Low‐frequency trends in the occurrence of this combination of climate‐pattern phases, resulting from trends in the AMO, are the primary climate pattern associated with periods of high fire occurrence (1700–89 and 1851–1919) and a fire‐free period (1790–1850). The apparent controlling influence of the AMO on drought and years of large fires in the subalpine forests of the Colorado Front Range probably applies to an extensive area of western North America.     

El Niño,Climate, and Cholera Associations in Piura,Peru, 1991–2001: A Wavelet Analysis

In Peru, it was hypothesized that epidemic cholera in 1991 was linked to El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. While previous studies demonstrated an association in 1997–1998, using cross-sectional data, they did not assess the consistency of this relationship across the decade. Thus, how strong or variable an El Niño–cholera relationship was in Peru or whether El Niño triggered epidemic cholera early in the decade remains unknown. In this study, wavelet and mediation analyses were used to characterize temporal patterns among El Niño, local climate variables (rainfall, river discharge, and air temperature), and cholera incidence in Piura, Peru from 1991 to 2001 and to estimate the mediating effects of local climate on El Niño–cholera relationships. The study hypothesis is that El Niño-related connections with cholera in Piura were transient and interconnected via local climate pathways. Overall, our findings provide evidence that a strong El Niño–cholera link, mediated by local hydrology, existed in the latter part of the 1990s but found no evidence of an El Niño association in the earlier part of the decade, suggesting that El Niño may not have precipitated cholera emergence in Piura. Further examinations of cholera epicenters in Peru are recommended to support these results in Piura. For public health planning, the results may improve existing efforts that utilize El Niño monitoring for preparedness during future climate-related extremes in the region.     

Prokaryotic community dynamics and nitrogen-cycling genes in an oxygen-deficient upwelling system during La Niña and El Niño conditions

Dissolved oxygen regulates microbial distribution and nitrogen cycling and, therefore, ocean productivity and Earth's climate. To date, the assembly of microbial communities in relation to oceanographic changes due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains poorly understood in oxygen minimum zones (OMZ). The Mexican Pacific upwelling system supports high productivity and a permanent OMZ. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution of the prokaryotic community and nitrogen-cycling genes was investigated along a repeated transect subjected to varying oceanographic conditions associated with La Niña in 2018 and El Niño in 2019. The community was more diverse during La Niña and in the aphotic OMZ, dominated by the Subtropical Subsurface water mass, where the highest abundances of nitrogen-cycling genes were found. The largest proportion of the Gulf of California water mass during El Niño provided warmer, more oxygenated, and nutrient-poor waters towards the coast, leading to a significant increase of Synechococcus in the euphotic layer compared with the opposite conditions during La Niña. These findings suggest that prokaryotic assemblages and nitrogen genes are linked to local physicochemical conditions (e.g. light, oxygen, nutrients), but also to oceanographic fluctuations associated with ENSO phases, indicating the crucial role of climate variability in microbial community dynamics in this OMZ.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America

To model the effects of global climate phenomena on avian population dynamics, we must identify and quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between climate, weather and bird populations. Previous studies show that in Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences winter and spring weather that in turn affects resident and migratory landbird species. Similarly, in North America, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean reportedly drives weather patterns that affect prey availability and population dynamics of landbird species which winter in the Caribbean. Here we show that ENSO‐ and NAO‐induced seasonal weather conditions differentially affect neotropical‐ and temperate‐wintering landbird species that breed in Pacific North‐west forests of North America. For neotropical species wintering in western Mexico, El Niño conditions correlate with cooler, wetter conditions prior to spring migration, and with high reproductive success the following summer. For temperate wintering species, springtime NAO indices correlate strongly with levels of forest defoliation by the larvae of two moth species and also with annual reproductive success, especially among species known to prey upon those larvae. Generalized linear models incorporating NAO indices and ENSO precipitation indices explain 50–90% of the annual variation in productivity reported for 10 landbird species. These results represent an important step towards spatially explicit modelling of avian population dynamics at regional scales.     

El Niño,Host Plant Growth,and Migratory Butterfly Abundance in a Changing Climate

In the wet forests of Panama, El Niño typically brings a more prolonged and severe dry season. Interestingly, many trees and lianas that comprise the wet forests increase their productivity as a response to El Niño. Here, we quantify the abundance of migrating Marpesia chiron butterflies over 17 yr and the production of new leaves of their hostplants over 9 yr to test the generality of the El Niño migration syndrome, i.e., whether increased abundance of migrating insects and productivity of their food plants are associated with El Niño and La Niña events. We find that the quantity of M. chiron migrating across the Panama Canal was directly proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the Pacific Ocean, which characterizes El Niño and La Niña events. We also find that production of new leaves by its larval host trees, namely Brosimum alicastrum, Artocarpus altilis, and Ficus citrifolia, was directly proportional to the SST anomaly, with greater leaf flushing occurring during the period of the annual butterfly migration that followed an El Niño event. Combining these and our previously published results for the migratory butterfly Aphrissa statira and its host lianas, we conclude that dry season rainfall and photosynthetically active radiation can serve as primary drivers of larval food production and insect population outbreaks in Neotropical wet forests, with drier years resulting in enhanced plant productivity and herbivore abundance. Insect populations should closely track changes in both frequency and amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with climate change.     

Potential impacts of a future persistent El Niño or La Niña on three subspecies of Australian butterflies

One of the major uncertainties of 21st century climate change is the potential for shifts to the intensity and frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Although this phenomenon is known to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems regionally and globally, the biological consequences of climate change‐driven shifts in future ENSO events have been unexplored. Here, we investigate the potential impacts that a persistent El Niño, La Niña, or ‘Neutral' phase may have on species distributions. Using MaxEnt, we model the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for three northeast Australian butterfly subspecies (Doleschallia bisaltide australis, Hypolimnas alimena lamina, and Mycalesis terminus terminus) across the three ENSO phases. We find that the spatial extent and quality of habitat are lowest under conditions that would characterize a persistent El Niño (hot/dry). In contrast, suitable habitat is broadest under the warm/wet conditions associated with La Niña. Statistical analyses of the difference between pair‐wise combinations of suitability maps using Hellinger distance showed that projections for each subspecies and ENSO phase combination were significantly different from other combinations. The resilience of these, and other, butterfly (sub)species to changes in ENSO will be influenced by fluctuations in the strength of these events, availability of refugia, and life‐history characteristics. However, the population dynamics of wet‐ and dry‐season phenotypes of M. t. terminus and physiological limitations to high temperatures suggest that this subspecies, in particular, may have limited resilience should the strength and frequency of El Niño events increase.     

Tropical and north Pacific teleconnections influence fire regimes in pine-dominated forests of north-eastern California, USA

Aim To assess the importance of drought and teleconnections from the tropical and north Pacific Ocean on historical fire regimes and vegetation dynamics in north‐eastern California. Location The 700 km² study area was on the leeward slope of the southern Cascade Mountains in north‐eastern California. Open forests of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. ponderosa Laws.) and Jeffrey pine (P. jeffreyi Grev. & Balf) surround a network of grass and shrub‐dominated meadows that range in elevation from 1650 to 1750 m. Methods Fire regime characteristics (return interval, season and extent) were determined from crossdated fire scars and were compared with tree‐ring based reconstructions of precipitation and temperature and teleconnections for the period 1700–1849. The effect of drought on fire regimes was determined using a tree‐ring based proxy of climate from five published chronologies. The number of forest‐meadow units that burned was compared with published reconstructions of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Results Landscape scale fires burned every 7–49 years in meadow‐edge forests and were influenced by variation in drought, the PDO and ENSO. These widespread fires burned during years that were dryer and warmer than normal that followed wetter and cooler years. Less widespread fires were not associated with this wet, then dry climate pattern. Widespread fires occurred during El Niño years, but fire extent was mediated by the phase of the PDO. Fires were most widespread when the PDO was in a warm or normal phase. Fire return intervals, season and extent varied at decadal to multi‐decadal time scales. In particular, an anomalously cool, wet period during the early 1800s resulted in widespread fires that occurred earlier in the year than fires before or after. Main conclusions Fire regimes in north‐eastern California were strongly influenced by regional and hemispheric‐scale climate variation. Fire regimes responded to variation that occurred in both the north and tropical Pacific. Near normal modes of the PDO may influence fire regimes more than extreme conditions. The prevalence of widespread teleconnection‐driven fires in the historic record suggests that variation in the Pacific Ocean was a key regulator of fire regimes through its influence on local fuel production and successional dynamics in north‐eastern California.     

Spatial refuges and associational defenses promote harmful blooms of the alga Caulerpa sertularioides onto coral reefs

Extreme population fluctuations, or outbreaks, are driven by interacting processes that are often more complex than isolated changes in consumer or resource control. Blooms of the macroalga Caulerpa sertularioides in the eastern tropical Pacific overgrew and killed reef-building corals, with blooms onto reefs corresponding to cool La Niña phases of inter-decadal fluctuations of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We quantified factors responsible for the maintenance of C. sertularioides patches in off-reef areas, namely an associational mutualism with an epiphytic cyanobacteria (Lyngbya majuscula), coupled with spatial refuges at the scales of individual thalli and habitat. Maintenance of near reef algal populations with a strong response to nutrient addition showed that these populations were primed to bloom onto reefs in response to enhanced nutrient delivery, such as those potentially associated with La Niña conditions. However, our experiments demonstrated that no single factor related to consumer or resource control was likely to stimulate bloom formation in isolation. Rather, we propose a novel model of reef bloom formation where off-reef blooms are sustained by processes reducing consumer control, and then bloom onto reefs through an interaction between increased allochthonous nutrient input and an uncoupling of consumer control by an association with epiphytic cyanobacteria.     

Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events on the Distribution of Wintering Raptors

Abstract We report the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the distribution and abundance of 3 raptor species at continental, regional, and landscape scales. We correlated values from the southern oscillation index (SOI), an index of ENSO phase and strength, with Christmas Bird Count data over a 30-year period. We investigated the relationship between the SOI and winter raptor distributions at 3 spatial scales: continental (central United States), regional (TX, USA), and landscape (3 roadside transects within TX). At the continental scale, ENSO events resulted in regional shifts for American kestrel (Falco sparverius), northern harrier (Circus cyaneus), and red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) winter abundances. As expected, these shifts were northward during El Niño (warm) winters, and southward for red-tailed hawks and northern harriers during La Niña (cold) winters. Within Texas, northern harrier distributions shifted towards arid west Texas during wet El Niño winters but were restricted to mesic coastal Texas during dry La Niña winters. Red-tailed hawk abundance increased in eastern Texas during La Niña winters responding to cooler than normal temperatures throughout the northern Midwest. Data from local roadside transects over a 3-year period encompassing 2 El Niño winters and one La Niña winter supported the abundance patterns revealed by continental and regional data, and added evidence that fluctuations in winter abundances result from demographic pulses as well as spatial shifts for wintering populations. This study underscores the need for long-term monitoring at both local and regional spatial scales in order to detect changes in continental populations. Short-term or local studies would have erroneously assumed local population declines or increases associated with ENSO events, rather than facultative movements or demographic pulses supported by this study.     

Climate‐mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño

The degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom‐up, top‐down, or direct physical processes represents a long‐standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio‐temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom‐up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top‐down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom‐up, top‐down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long‐term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom‐up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom‐up and top‐down forcing, analogous to wasp‐waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom‐up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean‐atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño.     

The impact of El Niño events on the pelagic food chain in the northern California Current

The zooplankton of the northern California Current are typically characterized by an abundance of lipid‐rich copepods that support rapid growth and survival of ecologically, commercially, and recreationally valued fish, birds, and mammals. Disruption of this food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity are often associated with climatic variability such as El Niño events. We examined the variability in timing, magnitude, and duration of positive temperature anomalies and changes in copepod species composition in the northern California Current in relation to 10 tropical El Niño events. Measurable impacts on mesozooplankton of the northern California Current were observed during seven of 10 of these events. The occurrence of anomalously warm water and the response of the copepod community was rapid (lag of zero to 2 months) following the initiation of canonical Eastern Pacific (EP) events, but delayed (lag of 2–8 months) following ‘Modoki’ Central Pacific (CP) events. The variable lags in the timing of a physical and biological response led to impacts in the northern California Current peaking in winter during EP events and in the spring during CP events. The magnitude and duration of the temperature and copepod anomalies were strongly and positively related to the magnitude and duration of El Niño events, but were also sensitive to the phase of the lower frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When fisheries managers and biological oceanographers are faced with the prospect of a future El Niño event, prudent management and observation will require consideration of the background oceanographic conditions, the type of event, and both the magnitude and duration of the event when assessing the potential physical and biological impacts on the northern California Current.     

Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal‐scale biological variability

In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts – abrupt changes in modes of low‐frequency climate variability – are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal‐scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal‐scale (1965–2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1–2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1–2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1–2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out‐performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1–2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations.     

Effects of El Niño-driven environmental variability on black turtle migration to Peruvian foraging grounds

We analyzed sea temperature as an environmental factor, in association with ENSO, affecting the migration of East Pacific black turtle, Chelonia mydas (=Chelonia agassizii Bocourt), to its foraging areas and its feeding ecology at San Andrés, Peru. A 19-year sea turtle landing database (1970–1988) was constructed to associate landing fluctuations with environmental variability represented by the Peruvian Oscillation Index. A positive correlation between them (r = 0.75, P < 0.05) indicated that exceptionally large black turtle landings occurred in San Andrés port during El Niño episodes. Warmer waters (SST 22–28°C) approached near the Peruvian coast during El Niño episodes, thus facilitating black turtle access to this area. Furthermore, during El Niño 1987, large juvenile and adult black turtles, known to be primarily herbivorous, fed mainly on the scyphozoan jellyfish Chrysaora plocamia Péron &; Lesueur, which was very abundant during this event. It is likely that black turtles exploited this resource opportunistically. Inter-annual environmental variability, driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation, has profound consequences for the ecology of the endangered black turtle, which should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic activities on its population dynamics.     

Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan‐tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982–1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997–1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970–2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970–2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño‐stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10–15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near‐term future climate‐change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.     

El Niño and related monsoon drought signals in 523-year-long ring width records of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) trees from south India

We present a 523-year (A.D. 1481–2003) tree-ring width index chronology of Teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) from Kerala, Southern India, prepared from three forest sites. Dendroclimatological investigations indicate a significant positive relationship between the tree-ring index series and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and related global parameters like the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A higher frequency of occurrence of low tree growth is observed in years of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall (droughts) associated with El Niño since the late 18th century. Prior to that time, many low tree growth years are detected during known El Niño events, probably related to deficient Indian monsoon rainfall. The general relationship between ISMR and El Niño is known to be negative and the spatial correlations between our Kerala tree-ring chronology and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Niño regions follow similar patterns as those for ISMR. This relationship indicates strong ENSO-related monsoon signals in the tree-ring records. These tree-ring chronologies with a high degree of sensitivity to monsoon climate are useful tools to understand the vagaries of monsoon rainfall prior to the period of recorded data.     

Climate‐growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate‐growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in tropical dry secondary forests in southern Mexico. The role of large‐scale climatic drivers in determining interannual growth variation was studied by correlating growth to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, including the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Annual growth varied eightfold over 1970–2007, and was correlated with wet season rainfall (r=0.75). Temperature, cloud cover and solar variation did not affect growth, although these climate variables correlated with growth due to their relations with rainfall. Strong positive correlations between growth and SSTA occurred in the North tropical Atlantic during the first half of the year, and in the Pacific during the second half of the year. The Pacific influence corresponded closely to ENSO‐like influences with negative effects of high SSTA in the eastern Pacific Niño3.4 region on growth due to decreases in rainfall. During El Niño years growth was reduced by 37%. We estimated how growth would be affected by the predicted trend of decreasing rainfall in Central America towards the end of this century. Using rainfall predictions of two sets of climate models, we estimated that growth at the end of this century will be reduced by 12% under a medium (A1B) and 21% under a high (A2) emission scenario. These results suggest that climate change may have repercussions for the carbon sequestration capacity of tropical dry forests in the region.     

Increased extreme drought events in south–central China since the last century：Evidence from oxygen isotope signatures preserved in tree ring cellulose

Tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O) is a well-established proxy for hydroclimatic conditions in monsoon Asia. We reconstructed June–October relative humidity (RH_J–O) variations from 1808 to 2017, based on tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O data, which explain 46.2% of the actual RH variance in the Nanyue region, south–central China. Extreme wet events occurred frequently prior to the 1900s, but there have been more extreme dry events since the 1900s, apart from the late 1930s and early 1950s. Periodicity analysis revealed that the reconstructed RH_J–O records show obvious 15–30 years cycles from the 1830–1970s. The multi-decadal signals may reflect the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on hydroclimate. In the positive PDO phase, there is drying in south–central China, which is related to a weaker East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) via the Pacific–Japan teleconnection. The decadal signal has weakened since the 1970s. In addition, the reconstructed RH_J–O record shows strong interannual variations, which may be related to the Central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (CP ENSO). During extreme CP El Niño events, there is a weaker EASM due to the Pacific–Japan teleconnection, and the study site experienced drought. Our reconstructed moisture record is characterized by a decreasing influence from the PDO and increasing influence from the CP ENSO in recent decades. Moreover, the frequency of CP ENSO events is projected to increase under anthropogenic warming. Consequently, more extreme droughts which are related to CP ENSO events may increase in the south–central China in near future.     

Historical changes in the distributions of invasive and endemic marine invertebrates are contrary to global warming predictions: the effects of decadal climate oscillations

Aim We tested whether a hybrid zone that has formed between an endemic and an invasive species of marine mussel has shifted poleward as expected under a general hypothesis of global warming or has responded instead to decadal climate oscillations. Location We sampled 15 locations on the coast of California, USA, that span the distributions of the two species of marine mussels and their hybrids. Methods Mussels were sampled in 2005–08 and analysed at three nuclear gene loci using methods identical to those used in a study a decade earlier in order to document the genetic architecture of this system. Change in the system was determined by comparing the frequency of species‐specific alleles and multi‐locus genotypes over the intervening decade. Climate variation over the same period was examined by comparing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), upwelling indices and sea surface temperature (SST) during and prior to the study period. Results Contrary to the general expectations of global warming we show that the highly invasive warm‐water mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone formed with the endemic species Mytilus trossulus has rapidly contracted southwards. Mytilus galloprovincialis declined in abundance over the northern third of its geographic range (c. 540 km) and has become rare or absent across the northern 200 km of the range it previously colonized during its initial invasion. The distribution of the native species M. trossulus has remained unchanged over the same time period. Main conclusions The large‐scale range shift in the warm‐water invasive species M. galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone it forms with M. trossulus has been exceptionally rapid and is in the opposite direction to that predicted by the global warming hypotheses. This shift, however, is consistent with decadal climate variation associated with the ENSO and the PDO. Since the biogeography of this system was first described in 1999, the PDO has shifted from a warm phase, dominated by frequent and large El Niño events, to a cold‐phase period, with minimal ENSO activity. Thus recent decadal climate variation can oppose global trends in average temperature and this study illustrates the need to integrate the effects of climate change across multiple time‐scales.     

El Niño and dry season rainfall influence hostplant phenology and an annual butterfly migration from Neotropical wet to dry forests

We censused butterflies flying across the Panama Canal at Barro Colorado Island (BCI) for 16 years and butterfly hostplants for 8 years to address the question: What environmental factors influence the timing and magnitude of migrating Aphrissa statira butterflies? The peak migration date was earlier when the wet season began earlier and when soil moisture content in the dry season preceding the migration was higher. The peak migration date was also positively associated with peak leaf flushing of one hostplant (Callichlamys latifolia) but not another (Xylophragma seemannianum). The quantity of migrants was correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which influenced April soil moisture on BCI and total rainfall in the dry season. Both hostplant species responded to El Niño with greater leaf flushing, and the number of adults deriving from or laying eggs on those new leaves was greatest during El Niño years. The year 1993 was exceptional in that the number of butterflies migrating was lower than predicted by the El Niño event, yet the dry season was unusually wet for an El Niño year as well. Thus, dry season rainfall appears to be a primary driver of larval food production and population outbreaks for A. statira. Understanding how global climate cycles and local weather influence tropical insect migrations improves the predictability of ecological effects of climate change.