Impacts of climate change on the seasonal distribution of migratory caribou

Arctic ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global climate change as temperature and precipitation regimes are altered. An ecologically and socially highly important northern terrestrial species that may be impacted by climate change is the caribou, Rangifer tarandus . We predicted the current and potential future occurrence of two migratory herds of caribou [Rivière George herd (RG) and Rivière-aux-Feuilles (RAF) herd] under a Canadian General Circulation Model climate change scenario, across all seasons in the Québec–Labrador peninsula, using climatic and habitat predictor variables. Argos satellite-tracking collars have been deployed on 213 caribou between 1988 and 2003 with locations recorded every 4–5 days. In addition, we assembled a database of climate (temperature, precipitation, snowfall, timing and length of growing season) and habitat data obtained from the SPOT VEGETATION satellite sensor. Logistic regression models indicated that both climatic and physical habitat variables were significant predictors of current migratory caribou occurrence. Migratory caribou appeared to prefer regions with higher snowfall and lichen availability in the fall and winter. In the summer, caribou preferred cooler areas likely corresponding to a lower prevalence of insects, and they avoided disturbed and recently burnt areas. Climate change projections using climate data predicted an increased range for the RAF herd and decreased range for the RG herd during 2040–2069, limiting the herds to northeastern regions of the Québec–Labrador peninsula. Direct and indirect consequences of climate change on these migratory caribou herds possibly include alteration in habitat use, migration patterns, foraging behaviour, and demography, in addition to social and economic stress to arctic and subarctic native human populations.     

Differentiation of tundra/taiga and boreal coniferous forest wolves: genetics, coat colour and association with migratory caribou

The grey wolf has one of the largest historic distributions of any terrestrial mammal and can disperse over great distances across imposing topographic barriers. As a result, geographical distance and physical obstacles to dispersal may not be consequential factors in the evolutionary divergence of wolf populations. However, recent studies suggest ecological features can constrain gene flow. We tested whether wolf-prey associations in uninterrupted tundra and forested regions of Canada explained differences in migratory behaviour, genetics, and coat colour of wolves. Satellite-telemetry data demonstrated that tundra wolves (n = 19) migrate annually with caribou (n = 19) from denning areas in the tundra to wintering areas south of the treeline. In contrast, nearby boreal coniferous forest wolves are territorial and associated year round with resident prey. Spatially explicit analysis of 14 autosomal microsatellite loci (n = 404 individuals) found two genetic clusters corresponding to tundra vs. boreal coniferous forest wolves. A sex bias in gene flow was inferred based on higher levels of mtDNA divergence (F(ST) = 0.282, 0.028 and 0.033; P < 0.0001 for mitochondrial, nuclear autosomal and Y-chromosome markers, respectively). Phenotypic differentiation was substantial as 93% of wolves from tundra populations exhibited light colouration whereas only 38% of boreal coniferous forest wolves did (chi(2) = 64.52, P < 0.0001). The sharp boundary representing this discontinuity was the southern limit of the caribou migration. These findings show that substantial genetic and phenotypic differentiation in highly mobile mammals can be caused by prey-habitat specialization rather than distance or topographic barriers. The presence of a distinct wolf ecotype in the tundra of North America highlights the need to preserve migratory populations.     

Conservation genetics of the endangered terrestrial orchid Liparis japonica in Northeast China based on AFLP markers

Levels of genetic diversity and population genetic structure of the rare, endangered terrestrial orchid Liparis japonica were examined for eight natural populations (n = 185) in Northeast China using six AFLP primer pairs, where this species has experienced severe habitat loss and fragmentation. Based on 406 DNA bands, a high level of genetic diversity was found at the species level with the PPB of 85.47 %, while the genetic diversity at the population level was low (PPB = 47.48 %). A significantly high degree of population differentiation was found with 42.69 % variation existed among populations as measured by AMOVA, indicating potential restricted gene flow. The genetic distances between populations were independent of the corresponding geographic distances, and the genetic relationship of individuals had no significant correlation with their spatial distribution. The restricted gene flow might be impacted by reduced population size, habitat destruction and fragmentation. The results in this study suggested that habitat protection and keeping a stable environment are critical for the conservation of L. japonica species.     

Habitat loss exacerbates pathogen spread: An Agent-based model of avian influenza infection in migratory waterfowl

Habitat availability determines the distribution of migratory waterfowl along their flyway, which further influences the transmission and spatial spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The extensive habitat loss in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) may have potentially altered the virus spread and transmission, but those consequences are rarely studied. We constructed 6 fall migration networks that differed in their level of habitat loss, wherein an increase in habitat loss resulted in smaller networks with fewer sites and links. We integrated an agent-based model and a susceptible-infected-recovered model to simulate waterfowl migration and AIV transmission. We found that extensive habitat loss in the EAAF can 1) relocate the outbreaks northwards, responding to the distribution changes of wintering waterfowl geese, 2) increase the outbreak risk in remaining sites due to larger goose congregations, and 3) facilitate AIV transmission in the migratory population. In addition, our modeling output was in line with the predictions from the concept of “migratory escape”, i.e., the migration allows the geese to “escape” from the location where infection risk is high, affecting the pattern of infection prevalence in the waterfowl population. Our modeling shed light on the potential consequences of habitat loss in spreading and transmitting AIV at the flyway scale and suggested the driving mechanisms behind these effects, indicating the importance of conservation in changing spatial and temporal patterns of AIV outbreaks.     

Survival in the Rockies of an endangered hybrid swarm from diverged caribou (Rangifer tarandus) lineages

In North America, caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) experienced diversification in separate refugia before the last glacial maximum. Geographical isolation produced the barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus ) with its distinctive migratory habits, and the woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ), which has sedentary behaviour and is now in danger of extinction. Herein we report on the phylogenetics, population structure, and migratory habits of caribou in the Canadian Rockies, utilizing molecular and spatial data for 223 individuals. Mitochondrial DNA analyses show the occurrence of two highly diverged lineages; the Beringian–Eurasian and North American lineages, while microsatellite data reveal that present-day Rockies' caribou populations have resulted from interbreeding between these diverged lineages. An ice-free corridor at the end of the last glaciation likely allowed, for the first time, for barren-ground caribou to migrate from the North and overlap with woodland caribou expanding from the South. The lack of correlation between nuclear and mitochondrial data may indicate that different environmental forces, which might also include human-caused habitat loss and fragmentation, are currently reshaping the population structure of this postglacial hybrid swarm. Furthermore, spatial ecological data show evidence of pronounced migratory behaviour within the study area, and suggest that the probability of being migratory may be higher in individual caribou carrying a Beringian–Eurasian haplotype which is mainly associated with the barren-ground subspecies. Overall, our analyses reveal an intriguing example of postglacial mixing of diverged lineages. In a landscape that is changing due to climatic and human-mediated factors, an understanding of these dynamics, both past and present, is essential for management and conservation of these populations.     

After 100 years: hydroelectric dam-induced life-history divergence and population genetic changes in sockeye salmon (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus nerka</Emphasis>)

Understanding the impact of barriers and habitat fragmentation on the ecology and genetics of species is of broad interest to many biologists. In aquatic systems, hydroelectric dams often present an impenetrable barrier to migratory fish and can have negative effects on their persistence. Hydroelectric dams constructed in the Coquitlam and Alouette Rivers in the Fraser River drainage (British Columbia, Canada) in the early 1900s were thought to have led to complete loss of anadromous sockeye salmon from both rivers. For both reservoirs, recent water release programs resulted in the unexpected downstream migration of juvenile sockeye salmon and the subsequent upstream migration of adults towards the reservoir 2 years later. Here we investigate the evolutionary impact of dams on the sockeye salmon migration behavior by investigating the genetic distinction between migratory and non-migratory individuals within the Alouette and Coquitlam reservoirs. We also compare historical and contemporary genetic connectivity among 11 Lower Fraser River sockeye sites to infer recent population connectivity changes that might have been influenced by anthropogenic activities. Our molecular genetic analyses show a genetic distinction between the sea-run and resident individuals from the Coquitlam reservoir and population splitting time estimates suggest a very recent divergence between them. These results indicate a genetic component to migration behavior. For our broader survey from 11 sites, our comparisons suggest a general decline in gene flow, with a few interesting exceptions. In summary, our results suggest (i) early stage divergence between life history forms of sockeye salmon within one reservoir, and (ii) recent changes in genetic connectivity among Lower Fraser River populations; both of these results have potential recovery implications for historically migratory populations that were affected by anthropogenic barriers such as hydroelectric dams.     

The role of predation in the decline and extirpation of woodland caribou

To select appropriate recovery strategies for endangered populations, we must understand the dynamics of small populations and distinguish between the possible causes that drive such populations to low numbers. It has been suggested that the pattern of population decline may be inversely density-dependent with population growth rates decreasing as populations become very small; however, empirical evidence of such accelerated declines at low densities is rare. Here we analyzed the pattern of decline of a threatened population of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British Columbia, Canada. Using information on the instantaneous rate of increase relative to caribou density in suitable winter foraging habitat, as well as on pregnancy rates and on causes and temporal distribution of mortalities from a sample of 349 radiocollared animals from 15 subpopulations, we tested 3 hypothesized causes of decline: (a) food regulation caused by loss of suitable winter foraging habitat, (b) predation-sensitive foraging caused by loss of suitable winter foraging habitat and (c) predation with caribou being secondary prey. Population sizes of caribou subpopulations ranged from <5 to >500 individuals. Our results showed that the rates of increase of these subpopulations varied from −0.1871 to 0.0496 with smaller subpopulations declining faster than larger subpopulations. Rates of increase were positively related to the density of caribou in suitable winter foraging habitat. Pregnancy rates averaged 92.4% ±2.24 and did not differ among subpopulations. In addition, we found predation to be the primary cause of mortality in 11 of 13 subpopulations with known causes of mortality and predation predominantly occurred during summer. These results are consistent with predictions that caribou subpopulations are declining as a consequence of increased predation. Recovery of these woodland caribou will thus require a multispecies perspective and an appreciation for the influence of inverse density dependence on population trajectories.     

Trophic consequences of terrestrial eutrophication for a threatened ungulate

Changes in primary productivity have the potential to substantially alter food webs, with positive outcomes for some species and negative outcomes for others. Understanding the environmental context and species traits that give rise to these divergent outcomes is a major challenge to the generality of both theoretical and applied ecology. In aquatic systems, nutrient-mediated eutrophication has led to major declines in species diversity, motivating us to seek terrestrial analogues using a large-mammal system across 598 000 km² of the Canadian boreal forest. These forests are undergoing some of the most rapid rates of land-use change on Earth and are home to declining caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations. Using satellite-derived estimates of primary productivity, coupled with estimates of moose (Alces alces) and wolf (Canis lupus) abundance, we used path analyses to discriminate among hypotheses explaining how habitat alteration can affect caribou population growth. Hypotheses included food limitation, resource dominance by moose over caribou, and apparent competition with predators shared between moose and caribou. Results support apparent competition and yield estimates of wolf densities (1.8 individuals 1000 km⁻²) above which caribou populations decline. Our multi-trophic analysis provides insight into the cascading effects of habitat alteration from forest cutting that destabilize terrestrial predator–prey dynamics. Finally, the path analysis highlights why conservation actions directed at the proximate cause of caribou decline have been more successful in the near term than those directed further along the trophic chain.     

Genomics,environment and balancing selection in behaviourally bimodal populations: The caribou case

Selection forces that favour different phenotypes in different environments can change frequencies of genes between populations along environmental clines. Clines are also compatible with balancing forces, such as negative frequency‐dependent selection (NFDS), which maintains phenotypic polymorphisms within populations. For example, NFDS is hypothesized to maintain partial migration, a dimorphic behavioural trait prominent in species where only a fraction of the population seasonally migrates. Overall, NFDS is believed to be a common phenomenon in nature, yet a scarcity of studies were published linking naturally occurring allelic variation with bimodal or multimodal phenotypes and balancing selection. We applied a Pool‐seq approach and detected selection on alleles associated with environmental variables along a North–South gradient in western North American caribou, a species displaying partially migratory behaviour. On 51 loci, we found a signature of balancing selection, which could be related to NFDS and ultimately the maintenance of the phenotypic polymorphisms known within these populations. Yet, remarkably, we detected directional selection on a locus when our sample was divided into two behaviourally distinctive groups regardless of geographic provenance (a subset of GPS‐collared migratory or sedentary individuals), indicating that, within populations, phenotypically homogeneous groups were genetically distinctive. Loci under selection were linked to functional genes involved in oxidative stress response, body development and taste perception. Overall, results indicated genetic differentiation along an environmental gradient of caribou populations, which we found characterized by genes potentially undergoing balancing selection. We suggest that the underlining balancing force, NFDS, plays a strong role within populations harbouring multiple haplotypes and phenotypes, as it is the norm in animals, plants and humans too.     

Variation in migratory behavior influences regional genetic diversity and structure among American Kestrel populations (Falco sparverius) in North America

Birds employ numerous strategies to cope with seasonal fluctuations in high-quality habitat availability. Long distance migration is a common tactic; however, partial migration is especially common among broadly distributed species. Under partial migration systems, a portion of a species migrates, whereas the remainder inhabits breeding grounds year round. In this study, we identified effects of migratory behavior variation on genetic structure and diversity of American Kestrels (Falco sparverius), a widespread partial migrant in North America. American Kestrels generally migrate; however, a resident group inhabits the southeastern United States year round. The southeastern group is designated as a separate subspecies (F. s. paulus) from the migratory group (F. s. sparverius). Using mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites from 183 and 211 individuals, respectively, we illustrate that genetic structure is stronger among nonmigratory populations, with differentiation measures ranging from 0.060 to 0.189 depending on genetic marker and analysis approach. In contrast, measures from western North American populations ranged from 0 to 0.032. These findings suggest that seasonal migratory behavior is also associated with natal and breeding dispersal tendencies. We likewise detected significantly lower genetic diversity within nonmigratory populations, reflecting the greater influence of genetic drift in small populations. We identified the signal of population expansion among nonmigratory populations, consistent with the recent establishment of higher latitude breeding locations following Pleistocene glacial retreat. Differentiation of F. s. paulus and F. s. sparverius reflected subtle differences in allele frequencies. Because migratory behavior can evolve quickly, our analyses suggest recent origins of migratory American Kestrel populations in North America.     

Population dynamics in migratory networks

Migratory animals are comprised of a complex series of interconnected breeding and nonbreeding populations. Because individuals in any given population can arrive from a variety of sites the previous season, predicting how different populations will respond to environmental change can be challenging. In this study, we develop a population model composed of a network of breeding and wintering sites to show how habitat loss affects patterns of connectivity and species abundance. When the costs of migration are evenly distributed, habitat loss at a single site can increase the degree of connectivity (mixing) within the entire network, which then acts to buffer global populations from declines. However, the degree to which populations are buffered depends on where habitat loss occurs within the network: a site that has the potential to receive individuals from multiple populations in the opposite season will lead to smaller declines than a site that is more isolated. In other cases when there are equal costs of migration to two or more sites in the opposite season, habitat loss can result in some populations becoming segregated (disconnected) from the rest of the network. The geographic structure of the network can have a significant influence on relative population sizes of sites in the same season and can also affect the overall degree of mixing in the network, even when sites are of equal intrinsic quality. When a migratory network is widely spaced and migration costs are high, an equivalent habitat loss will lead to a larger decline in global population size than will occur in a network where the overall costs of migration are low. Our model provides an important foundation to test predictions related to habitat loss in real-world migratory networks and demonstrates that migratory networks will likely produce different dynamics from traditional metapopulations. Our results provide strong evidence that estimating population connectivity is a prerequisite for successfully predicting changes in migratory populations.     

Implications of body condition on the unsustainable predation rates of endangered mountain caribou

Both top-down and bottom-up processes influence herbivore populations, and identifying dominant limiting factors is essential for applying effective conservation actions. Mountain caribou are an endangered ecotype of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) that have been declining, and unsustainable predation has been identified as the proximate cause. To investigate the role of poor nutrition, we examined the influence of sex, season, age class, and available suitable habitat (i.e., old-growth forest>140 years) per caribou on bone marrow fat content of caribou that died (n = 79). Sex was the only strong predictor of marrow fat. Males that died during and post rut had lower marrow fat than females or males at other times of year. Old-growth abundance per caribou, season, and age class did not predict marrow fat. Caribou killed by predators did not have less marrow fat than those that died in accidents, suggesting that nutritionally stressed caribou were not foraging in less secure habitats or that predators selected nutritionally stressed individuals. Marrow fat in endangered and declining populations of mountain caribou was similar to caribou in other, more viable populations. Our results support previous research suggesting that observed population declines of mountain caribou are due to excessive predation that is not linked to body condition.     

Temporally dynamic habitat suitability predicts genetic relatedness among caribou

Landscape heterogeneity plays a central role in shaping ecological and evolutionary processes. While species utilization of the landscape is usually viewed as constant within a year, the spatial distribution of individuals is likely to vary in time in relation to particular seasonal needs. Understanding temporal variation in landscape use and genetic connectivity has direct conservation implications. Here, we modelled the daily use of the landscape by caribou in Quebec and Labrador, Canada and tested its ability to explain the genetic relatedness among individuals. We assessed habitat selection using locations of collared individuals in migratory herds and static occurrences from sedentary groups. Connectivity models based on habitat use outperformed a baseline isolation-by-distance model in explaining genetic relatedness, suggesting that variations in landscape features such as snow, vegetation productivity and land use modulate connectivity among populations. Connectivity surfaces derived from habitat use were the best predictors of genetic relatedness. The relationship between connectivity surface and genetic relatedness varied in time and peaked during the rutting period. Landscape permeability in the period of mate searching is especially important to allow gene flow among populations. Our study highlights the importance of considering temporal variations in habitat selection for optimizing connectivity across heterogeneous landscape and counter habitat fragmentation.     

Terrestrial Mammal Occupancy in the Context of Widespread Forest Loss and a Proposed Interoceanic Canal in Nicaragua's Decreasingly Remote South Caribbean Region

Central America is experiencing rapid forest loss and habitat degradation both inside and outside of protected areas. Despite increasing deforestation, the Caribbean region of Nicaragua plays an important role in the survival or extinction of large mammal populations in Central America given that it still retains core areas of habitat for large mammal species. The proposed interoceanic canal project that would bisect the southern half of this Caribbean region represents a new threat that, combined with an advancing agricultural frontier, could affect populations of large mammal species such as jaguars, white-lipped peccaries, and Baird’s tapirs. We used occupancy models to examine the relative occupancy probabilities for an assemblage of terrestrial mammals in the south Caribbean region of Nicaragua to identify current core areas for our study species and conduct a preliminary evaluation of the potential impacts of the proposed interoceanic canal. We modeled a community level distribution of eight species with varying levels of sensitivity to human encroachment and a range of habitat associations. Our model results reveal three priority areas for terrestrial mammal conservation in our study area. The mapped predictions show that the only remaining area of suitable habitat for large mammals in the path of the proposed interoceanic canal is a relatively thin strip of forest that runs along the Caribbean Coast. In light of these findings, we propose five recommendations that will help ensure the conservation of this area of the proposed canal route as suitable habitat for our study species.     

Spatial differences in genetic diversity and northward migration suggest genetic erosion along the boreal caribou southern range limit and continued range retraction

With increasing human activities and associated landscape changes, distributions of terrestrial mammals become fragmented. These changes in distribution are often associated with reduced population sizes and loss of genetic connectivity and diversity (i.e., genetic erosion) which may further diminish a species' ability to respond to changing environmental conditions and lead to local population extinctions. We studied threatened boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations across their distribution in Ontario/Manitoba (Canada) to assess changes in genetic diversity and connectivity in areas of high and low anthropogenic activity. Using data from >1,000 caribou and nine microsatellite loci, we assessed population genetic structure, genetic diversity, and recent migration rates using a combination of network and population genetic analyses. We used Bayesian clustering analyses to identify population genetic structure and explored spatial and temporal variation in those patterns by assembling networks based on R_ST and F_ST as historical and contemporary genetic edge distances, respectively. The Bayesian clustering analyses identified broad‐scale patterns of genetic structure and closely aligned with the R_ST network. The F_ST network revealed substantial contemporary genetic differentiation, particularly in areas presenting contemporary anthropogenic disturbances and habitat fragmentation. In general, relatively lower genetic diversity and greater genetic differentiation were detected along the southern range limit, differing from areas in the northern parts of the distribution. Moreover, estimation of migration rates suggested a northward movement of animals away from the southern range limit. The patterns of genetic erosion revealed in our study suggest ongoing range retraction of boreal caribou in central Canada.     

Climate-Driven Effects of Fire on Winter Habitat for Caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.     

Caribou movement as a correlated random walk

Movement is a primary mechanism coupling animals to their environment, yet there exists little empirical analysis to test our theoretical knowledge of this basic process. We used correlated random walk (CRW) models and satellite telemetry to investigate long-distance movements of caribou, the most vagile, non-volant terrestrial vertebrate in the world. Individual paths of migratory and sedentary female caribou were quantified using measures of mean move length and angle, and net squared displacements at each successive move were compared to predictions from the models. Movements were modelled at two temporal scales. For paths recorded through one annual cycle, the CRW model overpredicted net displacement of caribou through time. For paths recorded over shorter intervals delineated by seasonal behavioural changes of caribou, there was excellent correspondence between model predictions and observations for most periods for both migratory and sedentary caribou. On the smallest temporal scale, a CRW model significantly overpredicted displacements of migratory caribou during 3 months following calving; this was also the case for sedentary caribou in late summer, and in late winter. In all cases of overprediction there was significant positive autocorrelation in turn direction, indicating that movements were more tortuous than expected. In one case of underprediction, significant negative autocorrelation of sequential turn direction was evident, indicating that migratory caribou moved in straightened paths during spring migration to calving grounds. Results are discussed in light of known migration patterns and possible limiting factors for caribou, and indicate the applicability of CRW models to animal movement at vast spatial and temporal scales, thus assisting in future development of more sophisticated models of population spread and redistribution for vertebrates. Received: 14 July 1999 / Accepted: 15 November 1999     

Impacts of spruce budworm defoliation on the habitat of woodland caribou,moose, and their main predators

Forest logging has contributed to the decline of several woodland caribou populations by causing the fragmentation of mature coniferous stands. Such habitat alterations could be worsened by spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaks. Using 6201 vegetation plots from provincial inventories conducted after the last SBW outbreak (1968–1992) in boreal forests of Québec (Canada), we investigated the influence of SBW‐caused tree defoliation and mortality on understory vegetation layers relevant to woodland caribou and its main predators. We found a positive association between severe outbreaks and the cover of most groups of understory plant species, especially in stands that were dominated by balsam fir before the outbreak, where a high canopy openness particularly benefited relatively fast‐growing deciduous plants. Such increases in early successional vegetation could provide high‐quality forage for moose, which is likely to promote higher wolf densities and increase predation pressure on caribou. SBW outbreaks may thus negatively affect woodland caribou by increasing predation risk, the main factor limiting caribou populations in managed forests. For the near future, we recommend updating the criteria used to define critical caribou habitat to consider the potential impacts of spruce budworm defoliation.     

The response of bird populations to habitat loss

Environmental change through altered climate and land use could have a severe impact on bird populations. Predicting the consequences for the size of bird populations is one of the crucial problems for their conservation. We show how a population model based on the behaviour of individuals can be used to predict the consequences of habitat loss. For a wide range of conditions, loss of either wintering or breeding habitat results in population reduction. The approach is then extended to consider the impact of habitat loss in the wintering area on bird species with complex migratory systems. This shows that 'knock-on' effects may occur, so that habitat loss in a wintering area may affect populations which did not initially use that area. The ability to alter migration routes in response to environmental change may be crucial to the future viability of populations. Using a simple model combining genetics and population dynamics, we show that aspects of the biology of a species may affect whether or not its migration strategy is flexible enough to shift in response to habitat change. Some species may be able to adopt new migration routes and avoid the catastrophic consequences of habitat loss in traditional wintering areas; however, other species may lack this flexibility and may suffer severe population declines as a consequence.     

Rampant drift in artificially fragmented populations of the endangered tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi)

Habitat fragmentation and its genetic consequences are a critically important issue in evaluating the evolutionary penalties of human habitat modification. Here, we examine the genetic structure and diversity in naturally subdivided and artificially fragmented populations of the endangered tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi), a small fish restricted to discrete coastal lagoons and estuaries in California, USA. We use five naturally fragmented coastal populations from a 300‐ km spatial scale as a standard to assess migration and drift relative to eight artificially fragmented bay populations from a 30‐ km spatial scale. Using nine microsatellite loci in 621 individuals, and a 522‐base fragment of mitochondrial DNA control region from 103 individuals, we found striking differences in the relative influences of migration and drift on genetic variation at these two scales. Overall, the artificially fragmented populations exhibited a consistent pattern of higher genetic differentiation and significantly lower genetic diversity relative to the naturally fragmented populations. Thus, even in a species characterized by habitat isolation and subdivision, further artificial fragmentation appears to result in substantial population genetic consequences and may not be sustainable.