Complexity and Verisimilitude: Realism for Ecology

When data are limited, simple models of complex ecological systems tend to wind up closer to the truth than more complex models of the same systems. This greater proximity to the truth, or verisimilitude, leads to greater predictive success. When more data are available, the advantage of simplicity decreases, and more complex models may gain the upper hand. In ecology, holistic models are usually simpler than reductionistic models. Thus, when data are limited, holistic models have an advantage over reductionistic models, with respect to verisimilitude and predictive success. I illustrate these points with models designed to explain and predict the numbers of species on islands.     

Unruly Complexity: Ecology, Interpretation, Engagement

Unruly Complexity: Ecology, Interpretation, Engagement. Peter J. Taylor. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2005. 289 pp.     

Historical and Ecological Factors in the Biogeography of Aposematic Neotropical Butterflies

SYNOPSIS. Quantitative analysis of low-level (mostly subspecific)geographic differentiation of aposematic color patterns in threegroups of forest butterflies (Heliconiini, Ithomiinae, and Troidini),in 1,550 half-degree quadrants throughout the Neotropics, indicatesfour principal species-endemicity regions, 44 principal subspecies-endemicitycenters, and 300 quadrants of subspecies hybridization. Theendemism centers are different in outline but nearly identicalin position for each of the three ecologically different groups.Basic data on present and past physical environments (climate,soils, geomorphology, and vegetation structures), when integratedinto maps, show 1) regions of favorable ecological conditionsfor forest organisms in the present, 2) regions of environmentalconformities and rapid transitions in the present, and 3) regionsof high probability for humid forest persistence during themajor landscape changes at the end of the last glacial period,13,000–20,000 yr ago. Species diversity (a local phenomenon)is readily related to favorable modern ecological conditionsand environmental microheterogeneity, promoted by unpredictablemild disturbance. Biogeographical patterns of evolution at thelevel of regional subspecies correlate very well with presumedpaleoecological conditions. The biogeographical data also supportan hypothesis of differentiation resulting from areas of rapidenvironmental change; most of the hybridization quadrants fallwithin transition zones. There is lower correlation betweencenters of endemism and zones of en vironmental conformity,but some individual cases of differentiation in the butterfliesmay be adequately explained by modern ecological factors. Speciespresently undergoing differentiation in isolated habitat islands(Amazonian savannas and high-altitude Andean forests and paramos)may offer the best opportunities for observation of evolutionaryprocesses in the present.     

Phylogeographic Studies Depict the Role of Space and Time Scales of Plant Speciation in a Highly Diverse Neotropical Region

Phylogeographic studies have merged different disciplines to explain speciation processes at both spatial and time scales. Although the number of phylogeographic extant studies has increased almost exponentially, few have been conducted in tropical countries, especially using plants. Plants are interesting models for such studies because their responses to different habitat conditions are reflected directly in the size and distribution of populations, enabling direct tests of alternative demographic scenarios. Here, we review phylogeographic studies using plant species occurring in different vegetation domains within Brazil, which has the greatest number of plant species in the world. Based on a detailed examination of 41 published articles, we synthesized the current knowledge and discussed the main processes driving the high levels of plant diversity within Brazilian domains. General patterns of diversification could be inferred due to the number of species studied, especially in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest, the most intensively studied domains (34.1% and 17.1% of the studies, respectively). Distinct vegetation types within both biomes were affected differently by the Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Edaphic conditions and geographical barriers (rivers and mountains) have also influenced the phylogeographical patterns of plants species from Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest. Other Brazilian domains, such as the Caatinga, Pantanal, and Pampas, have been studied to a lesser extent and no common phylogeographic pattern across species could be inferred. Issues regarding past connections between distinct domains also remain unclear, including those affecting the two main forest domains in South America. Future research on plant species will fill these information gaps, improving our understanding of the complex diversification processes affecting the South American biota.     

Historical Biogeography: Evolution in Time and Space

Biogeography is the discipline of biology that studies the present and past distribution patterns of biological diversity and their underlying environmental and historical causes. For most of its history, biogeography has been divided into proponents of vicariance explanations, who defend that distribution patterns can mainly be explained by geological, tectonic-isolating events; and dispersalists, who argue that current distribution patterns are largely the result of recent migration events. This paper provides an overview of the evolution of the discipline from methods focused on finding general patterns of distribution (cladistic biogeography), to those that integrate biogeographic processes (event-based biogeography), to modern probabilistic approaches (parametric biogeography). The latter allows incorporating into biogeographic inference estimates of the divergence time between lineages (usually based on DNA sequences) and external sources of evidence, such as information on past climate and geography, the organism fossil record, or its ecological tolerance. This has revolutionized the discipline, allowing it to escape the dispersal versus vicariance dilemma and to address a wider range of evolutionary questions, including the role of ecological and historical factors in the construction of biomes or the existence of contrasting patterns of range evolution in animals and plants.     

Historical biogeography and diversification within the Neotropical parrot genus Pionopsitta (Aves: Psittacidae)

Aim We investigate spatial and temporal patterns of diversification within the Neotropical avifauna using the phylogenetic history of parrots traditionally belonging to the genus Pionopsitta Bonaparte 1854. This genus has long been of interest for those studying Neotropical biogeography and diversity, as it encompasses species that occur in most Neotropical forest areas of endemism. Location The Neotropical lowland forests in South and Central America. Methods Phylogenetic relationships were investigated for all species of the genus Pionopsitta and five other short‐tailed parrot genera using complete sequences of the mitochondrial genes cyt b and ND2 as well as 26 plumage characters. The resulting phylogeny was used to test the monophyly of the genus, investigate species limits, and as a framework for reconstructing their historical biogeography and patterns of diversification. Results We found that the genus Pionopsitta, as previously defined, is not monophyletic and thus the Chocó, Central American and Amazonian species will now have to be placed in the genus Gypopsitta. The molecular and morphological phylogenies are largely congruent, but disagree on the position of one of the Amazon basin taxa. Using molecular sequence data, we estimate that species within Gypopsitta diversified between 8.7 and 0.6 Ma, with the main divergences occurring between 3.3 and 6.4 Ma. These temporal results are compared to other taxa showing similar vicariance patterns. Main conclusions The results suggest that diversification in Gypopsitta was influenced mainly by geotectonic events, marine transgressions and river dynamics, whereas Quaternary glacial cycles of forest change seem to have played a minor role in the origination of the currently recognized species.     

Historical biogeography and speciation in the Neotropical highlands: Molecular phylogenetics of the jay genus Cyanolyca

Phylogenetic relationships were studied in the genus Cyanolyca, an assemblage of jays distributed from Mexico south to Bolivia. Given its fragmented distribution along the humid forests of the Neotropics, the genus Cyanolyca is a model group for exploring hypotheses on biogeography and speciation. Phylogenetic analyses were based on two mitochondrial and three nuclear loci; taxon sampling includes all species in the genus and most subspecies. Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analyses produced trees that were congruent and highly robust at both terminal and deep nodes of the phylogeny. Cyanolyca comprises two major clades: one contains the Mesoamerican “dwarf” jays, and the other consists of two main groups—C. cucullata + C. pulchra and the “core” South American species. Prior hypotheses of relationships were explored statistically using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Dispersal-Vicariance analysis revealed the importance of the Northern Andes as a major center for biological diversification, and the effects of dispersal across the Panamanian Land Bridge in the composition of South American and Mesoamerican avifaunas. Phylogenetic patterns are highly congruent with an allopatric mode of speciation. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of the biogeography of Neotropical montane forests.     

The Time Factor in Understanding the Ecology of Wildlife

This study examined the effectiveness of worksheets while learning about biodiversity in a natural history museum. Despite the frequent use of worksheets by school classes during out-of-school activities, their effectiveness in enhancing knowledge acquisition has been addressed by relatively few empirical studies. 148 Austrian grammar school students aged eleven to fifteen took part in the pre- and post-test questionnaire study which included a one-hour learning phase with worksheets in the museum. Results indicate a high learning effect from pre- to post-test. Further analyses show that worksheets contributed to knowledge gain, but this contribution is similar to that afforded by prior knowledge. The design of the worksheet tasks was also important. A closed task setting required the students to look for clearly defined solutions. This led to greater knowledge gains than open worksheet tasks, where the spectrum of possible answers was wider. We concluded that worksheets can be used effectively for acquiring basic knowledge about biodiversity and suggest how to integrate the findings into the design of worksheets for out-of-school learning.     

Exploring the Synergy Between Industrial Ecology and System of Systems to Understand Complexity

Two objectives are pursued in this article. First, from a methodological perspective, we explore the relationships among the constructs of complex adaptive systems, systems of systems, and industrial ecology. Through examination of central traits of each, we find that industrial ecology and system of systems present complementary frameworks for posing systemic problems in the context of sociotechnical applications. Furthermore, we contend that complexity science (the basis for the study of complex adaptive systems) provides a natural and necessary foundation and set of tools to analyze mechanisms such as evolution, emergence, and regulation in these applications. The second objective of the article is to illustrate the use of two tools from complexity sciences to address a network transition problem in air transportation framed from the system-of-systems viewpoint and shaped by an industrial ecology perspective. A stochastic simulation consisting of network theory analysis combined with agent-based modeling to study the evolution of an air transport network is presented. Patterns in agent behavior that lead to preferred outcomes across two scenarios are observed, and the implications of these results for decision makers are described. Furthermore, we highlight the necessity for future efforts to combine the merits of both system of systems and industrial ecology in tackling the issues of complexity in such large-scale, sociotechnical problems.     

Historical Ecology on Sandoy, Faroe Islands: Palaeoenvironmental and Archaeological Perspectives

We present palaeoenvironmental, geomorphological, archaeological, and place-name data which allow a holistic assessment of the history of landscape change on Sandoy, Faroe Islands, especially in terms of the changes that occurred in response to the colonization of the island by humans. In contrast to other situations in the North Atlantic region, there is considerable continuity in the patterns and processes of landscape evolution across the initial settlement horizon. Many of the characteristic features of post-settlement North Atlantic landscapes—absence of trees, widespread blanket mires, high rates of soil erosion—were already in place when the first people arrived. Although human impact on Sandoy appears to have been light, conversely, the unusual environment forced major alterations of the subsistence economy imported by the colonists. Settlement-era archaeological records suggest that, from the start, patterns of resource use differed substantially from the regional norm, and these differences became amplified over time as the Faroese economy created a locally sustainable cultural landscape.