Estimating the variation,autocorrelation, and environmental sensitivity of phenotypic selection

Despite considerable interest in temporal and spatial variation of phenotypic selection, very few methods allow quantifying this variation while correctly accounting for the error variance of each individual estimate. Furthermore, the available methods do not estimate the autocorrelation of phenotypic selection, which is a major determinant of eco‐evolutionary dynamics in changing environments. We introduce a new method for measuring variable phenotypic selection using random regression. We rely on model selection to assess the support for stabilizing selection, and for a moving optimum that may include a trend plus (possibly autocorrelated) fluctuations. The environmental sensitivity of selection also can be estimated by including an environmental covariate. After testing our method on extensive simulations, we apply it to breeding time in a great tit population in the Netherlands. Our analysis finds support for an optimum that is well predicted by spring temperature, and occurs about 33 days before a peak in food biomass, consistent with what is known from the biology of this species. We also detect autocorrelated fluctuations in the optimum, beyond those caused by temperature and the food peak. Because our approach directly estimates parameters that appear in theoretical models, it should be particularly useful for predicting eco‐evolutionary responses to environmental change.     

Evolution in a changing environment: a case study with great tit fledging mass

Heritable phenotypic traits under significant and consistent directional selection often fail to show the expected evolutionary response. A potential explanation for this contradiction is that because environmental conditions change constantly, environmental change can mask an evolutionary response to selection. We combined an "animal model" analysis with 36 years of data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major) to explore selection on and evolution of a morphological trait: body mass at fledging. We found significant heritability of this trait, but despite consistent positive directional selection on both the phenotypic and the additive genetic component of body mass, the population mean phenotypic value declined rather than increased over time. However, the mean breeding value for body mass at fledging increased over time, presumably in response to selection. We show that the divergence between the response to selection observed at the levels of genotype and phenotype can be explained by a change in environmental conditions over time, that is, related both to increased spring temperature before breeding and elevated population density. Our results support the suggestion that measuring phenotypes may not always give a reliable impression of evolutionary trajectories and that understanding patterns of phenotypic evolution in nature requires an understanding of how the environment has itself changed.     

Genetic variation in response to an indirect ecological effect

Indirect ecological effects (IEEs) are widespread and often as strong as the phenotypic effects arising from direct interactions in natural communities. Indirect effects can influence competitive interactions, and are thought to be important selective forces. However, the extent that selection arising from IEEs results in long-term evolutionary change depends on genetic variation underlying the phenotypic response-that is, a genotype-by-IEE interaction. We provide the first data on genetic variation in the response of traits to an IEE, and illustrate how such genetic variation might be detected and analysed. We used a model tri-trophic system to investigate the effect of host plants on two populations of predatory ladybirds through a clonal aphid herbivore. A split-family experimental design allowed us to estimate the effects of aphid host plant on ladybird traits (IEE) and the extent of genetic variation in ladybird predators for response to these effects (genotype-by-indirect environmental effect interaction). We found significant genetic variation in the response of ladybird phenotypes to the indirect effect of host plant of their aphid prey, demonstrating the potential for evolutionary responses to selection arising from the prey host.     

EVOLUTION OF PHENOTYPE–ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATIONS BY GENETIC RESPONSES TO SELECTION AND PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY IN A TEMPORALLY AUTOCORRELATED ENVIRONMENT

Covariation between population‐mean phenotypes and environmental variables, sometimes termed a “phenotype–environment association” (PEA), can result from phenotypic plasticity, genetic responses to natural selection, or both. PEAs can potentially provide information on the evolutionary dynamics of a particular set of populations, but this requires a full theoretical characterization of PEAs and their evolution. Here, we derive formulas for the expected PEA in a temporally fluctuating environment for a quantitative trait with a linear reaction norm. We compare several biologically relevant scenarios, including constant versus evolving plasticity, and the situation in which an environment affects both development and selection but at different time periods. We find that PEAs are determined not only by biological factors (e.g., magnitude of plasticity, genetic variation), but also environmental factors, such as the association between the environments of development and of selection, and in some cases the level of temporal autocorrelation. We also describe how a PEA can be used to estimate the relationship between an optimum phenotype and an environmental variable (i.e., the environmental sensitivity of selection), an important parameter for determining the extinction risk of populations experiencing environmental change. We illustrate this ability using published data on the predator‐induced morphological responses of tadpoles to predation risk.     

PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY AND EPIGENETIC MARKING: AN ASSESSMENT OF EVIDENCE FOR GENETIC ACCOMMODATION

The relationship between genotype (which is inherited) and phenotype (the target of selection) is mediated by environmental inputs on gene expression, trait development, and phenotypic integration. Phenotypic plasticity or epigenetic modification might influence evolution in two general ways: (1) by stimulating evolutionary responses to environmental change via population persistence or by revealing cryptic genetic variation to selection, and (2) through the process of genetic accommodation, whereby natural selection acts to improve the form, regulation, and phenotypic integration of novel phenotypic variants. We provide an overview of models and mechanisms for how such evolutionary influences may be manifested both for plasticity and epigenetic marking. We point to promising avenues of research, identifying systems that can best be used to address the role of plasticity in evolution, as well as the need to apply our expanding knowledge of genetic and epigenetic mechanisms to our understanding of how genetic accommodation occurs in nature. Our review of a wide variety of studies finds widespread evidence for evolution by genetic accommodation.     

Social structure modulates the evolutionary consequences of social plasticity: A social network perspective on interacting phenotypes

Organisms express phenotypic plasticity during social interactions. Interacting phenotype theory has explored the consequences of social plasticity for evolution, but it is unclear how this theory applies to complex social structures. We adapt interacting phenotype models to general social structures to explore how the number of social connections between individuals and preference for phenotypically similar social partners affect phenotypic variation and evolution. We derive an analytical model that ignores phenotypic feedback and use simulations to test the predictions of this model. We find that adapting previous models to more general social structures does not alter their general conclusions but generates insights into the effect of social plasticity and social structure on the maintenance of phenotypic variation and evolution. Contribution of indirect genetic effects to phenotypic variance is highest when interactions occur at intermediate densities and decrease at higher densities, when individuals approach interacting with all group members, homogenizing the social environment across individuals. However, evolutionary response to selection tends to increase at greater network densities as the effects of an individual's genes are amplified through increasing effects on other group members. Preferential associations among similar individuals (homophily) increase both phenotypic variance within groups and evolutionary response to selection. Our results represent a first step in relating social network structure to the expression of social plasticity and evolutionary responses to selection.     

Genetic evolution,plasticity, and bet‐hedging as adaptive responses to temporally autocorrelated fluctuating selection: A quantitative genetic model

Adaptive responses to autocorrelated environmental fluctuations through evolution in mean reaction norm elevation and slope and an independent component of the phenotypic variance are analyzed using a quantitative genetic model. Analytic approximations expressing the mutual dependencies between all three response modes are derived and solved for the joint evolutionary outcome. Both genetic evolution in reaction norm elevation and plasticity are favored by slow temporal fluctuations, with plasticity, in the absence of microenvironmental variability, being the dominant evolutionary outcome for reasonable parameter values. For fast fluctuations, tracking of the optimal phenotype through genetic evolution and plasticity is limited. If residual fluctuations in the optimal phenotype are large and stabilizing selection is strong, selection then acts to increase the phenotypic variance (bet‐hedging adaptive). Otherwise, canalizing selection occurs. If the phenotypic variance increases with plasticity through the effect of microenvironmental variability, this shifts the joint evolutionary balance away from plasticity in favor of genetic evolution. If microenvironmental deviations experienced by each individual at the time of development and selection are correlated, however, more plasticity evolves. The adaptive significance of evolutionary fluctuations in plasticity and the phenotypic variance, transient evolution, and the validity of the analytic approximations are investigated using simulations.     

Evolutionary stasis despite selection on a heritable trait in an invasive zooplankton

Invasive species are one of the greatest threats to ecosystems, and there is evidence that evolution plays an important role in the success or failure of invasions. Yet, few studies have measured natural selection and evolutionary responses to selection in invasive species, particularly invasive animals. We quantified the strength of natural selection on the defensive morphology (distal spine) of an invasive zooplankton, Bythotrephes longimanus, in Lake Michigan across multiple months during three growing seasons. We used multiple lines of evidence, including historic and contemporary wild‐captured individuals and palaeoecology of retrieved spines, to assess phenotypic change in distal spine length since invasion. We found evidence of temporally variable selection, with selection for decreased distal spine length early in the growing season and selection for increased distal spine length later in the season. This trend in natural selection is consistent with seasonal changes in the relative strength of non‐gape‐limited and gape‐limited fish predation. Yet, despite net selection for increased distal spine length and a known genetic basis for distal spine length, we observed little evidence of an evolutionary response to selection. Multiple factors likely limit an evolutionary response to selection, including genetic correlations, trade‐offs between components of fitness, and phenotypic plasticity.     

The role of changes in environmental quality in multitrait plastic responses to environmental and social change in the model microalga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii

Intraspecific variation plays a key role in species'' responses to environmental change; however, little is known about the role of changes in environmental quality (the population growth rate an environment supports) on intraspecific trait variation. Here, we hypothesize that intraspecific trait variation will be higher in ameliorated environments than in degraded ones. We first measure the range of multitrait phenotypes over a range of environmental qualities for three strains and two evolutionary histories of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii in laboratory conditions. We then explore how environmental quality and trait variation affect the predictability of lineage frequencies when lineage pairs are grown in indirect co‐culture. Our results show that environmental quality has the potential to affect intraspecific variability both in terms of the variation in expressed trait values, and in terms of the genotype composition of rapidly growing populations. We found low phenotypic variability in degraded or same‐quality environments and high phenotypic variability in ameliorated conditions. This variation can affect population composition, as monoculture growth rate is a less reliable predictor of lineage frequencies in ameliorated environments. Our study highlights that understanding whether populations experience environmental change as an increase or a decrease in quality relative to their recent history affects the changes in trait variation during plastic responses, including growth responses to the presence of conspecifics. This points toward a fundamental role for changes in overall environmental quality in driving phenotypic variation within closely related populations, with implications for microevolution.     

From genotype to phenotype: buffering mechanisms and the storage of genetic information

DNA sequence variation is abundant in wild populations. While molecular biologists use genetically homogeneous strains of model organisms to avoid this variation, evolutionary biologists embrace genetic variation as the material of evolution since heritable differences in fitness drive evolutionary change. Yet, the relationship between the phenotypic variation affecting fitness and the genotypic variation producing it is complex. Genetic buffering mechanisms modify this relationship by concealing the effects of genetic and environmental variation on phenotype. Genetic buffering allows the build-up and storage of genetic variation in phenotypically normal populations. When buffering breaks down, thresholds governing the expression of previously silent variation are crossed. At these thresholds, phenotypic differences suddenly appear and are available for selection. Thus, buffering mechanisms modulate evolution and regulate a balance between evolutionary stasis and change. Recent work provides a glimpse of the molecular details governing some types of genetic buffering.     

The evolutionary ecology of individual phenotypic plasticity in wild populations

The ability of individual organisms to alter morphological and life-history traits in response to the conditions they experience is an example of phenotypic plasticity which is fundamental to any population's ability to deal with short-term environmental change. We currently know little about the prevalence, and evolutionary and ecological causes and consequences of variation in life history plasticity in the wild. Here we outline an analytical framework, utilizing the reaction norm concept and random regression statistical models, to assess the between-individual variation in life history plasticity that may underlie population level responses to the environment at both phenotypic and genetic levels. We discuss applications of this framework to date in wild vertebrate populations, and illustrate how natural selection and ecological constraint may alter a population's response to the environment through their effects at the individual level. Finally, we present future directions and challenges for research into individual plasticity.     

Field heritability of a plant adaptation to fire in heterogeneous landscapes

The strong association observed between fire regimes and variation in plant adaptations to fire suggests a rapid response to fire as an agent of selection. It also suggests that fire‐related traits are heritable, a precondition for evolutionary change. One example is serotiny, the accumulation of seeds in unopened fruits or cones until the next fire, an important strategy for plant population persistence in fire‐prone ecosystems. Here, we evaluate the potential of this trait to respond to natural selection in its natural setting. For this, we use a SNP marker approach to estimate genetic variance and heritability of serotiny directly in the field for two Mediterranean pine species. Study populations were large and heterogeneous in climatic conditions and fire regime. We first estimated the realized relatedness among trees from genotypes, and then partitioned the phenotypic variance in serotiny using Bayesian animal models that incorporated environmental predictors. As expected, field heritability was smaller (around 0.10 for both species) than previous estimates under common garden conditions (0.20). An estimate on a subset of stands with more homogeneous environmental conditions was not different from that in the complete set of stands, suggesting that our models correctly captured the environmental variation at the spatial scale of the study. Our results highlight the importance of measuring quantitative genetic parameters in natural populations, where environmental heterogeneity is a critical aspect. The heritability of serotiny, although not high, combined with high phenotypic variance within populations, confirms the potential of this fire‐related trait for evolutionary change in the wild.     

Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses

Rapid climate change is likely to impose strong selection pressures on traits important for fitness, and therefore, microevolution in response to climate-mediated selection is potentially an important mechanism mitigating negative consequences of climate change. We reviewed the empirical evidence for recent microevolutionary responses to climate change in longitudinal studies emphasizing the following three perspectives emerging from the published data. First, although signatures of climate change are clearly visible in many ecological processes, similar examples of microevolutionary responses in literature are in fact very rare. Second, the quality of evidence for microevolutionary responses to climate change is far from satisfactory as the documented responses are often - if not typically - based on nongenetic data. We reinforce the view that it is as important to make the distinction between genetic (evolutionary) and phenotypic (includes a nongenetic, plastic component) responses clear, as it is to understand the relative roles of plasticity and genetics in adaptation to climate change. Third, in order to illustrate the difficulties and their potential ubiquity in detection of microevolution in response to natural selection, we reviewed the quantitative genetic studies on microevolutionary responses to natural selection in the context of long-term studies of vertebrates. The available evidence points to the overall conclusion that many responses perceived as adaptations to changing environmental conditions could be environmentally induced plastic responses rather than microevolutionary adaptations. Hence, clear-cut evidence indicating a significant role for evolutionary adaptation to ongoing climate warming is conspicuously scarce.     

High evolutionary constraints limited adaptive responses to past climate changes in toad skulls

Interactions among traits that build a complex structure may be represented as genetic covariation and correlation. Genetic correlations may act as constraints, deflecting the evolutionary response from the direction of natural selection. We investigated the relative importance of drift, selection, and constraints in driving skull divergence in a group of related toad species. The distributional range of these species encompasses very distinct habitats with important climatic differences and the species are primarily distinguished by differences in their skulls. Some parts of the toad skull, such as the snout, may have functional relevance in reproductive ecology, detecting water cues. Thus, we hypothesized that the species skull divergence was driven by natural selection associated with climatic variation. However, given that all species present high correlations among skull traits, our second prediction was of high constraints deflecting the response to selection. We first extracted the main morphological direction that is expected to be subjected to selection by using within- and between-species covariance matrices. We then used evolutionary regressions to investigate whether divergence along this direction is explained by climatic variation between species. We also used quantitative genetics models to test for a role of random drift versus natural selection in skull divergence and to reconstruct selection gradients along species phylogeny. Climatic variables explained high proportions of between-species variation in the most selected axis. However, most evolutionary responses were not in the direction of selection, but aligned with the direction of allometric size, the dimension of highest phenotypic variance in the ancestral population. We conclude that toad species have responded to selection related to climate in their skulls, yet high evolutionary constraints dominated species divergence and may limit species responses to future climate change.     

Evolutionary genetics of maternal effects

Maternal genetic effects (MGEs), where genes expressed by mothers affect the phenotype of their offspring, are important sources of phenotypic diversity in a myriad of organisms. We use a single‐locus model to examine how MGEs contribute patterns of heritable and nonheritable variation and influence evolutionary dynamics in randomly mating and inbreeding populations. We elucidate the influence of MGEs by examining the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship, which determines how MGEs affect evolutionary dynamics in response to selection on offspring phenotypes. This approach reveals important results that are not apparent from classic quantitative genetic treatments of MGEs. We show that additive and dominance MGEs make different contributions to evolutionary dynamics and patterns of variation, which are differentially affected by inbreeding. Dominance MGEs make the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship frequency dependent, resulting in the appearance of negative frequency‐dependent selection, while additive MGEs contribute a component of parent‐of‐origin dependent variation. Inbreeding amplifies the contribution of MGEs to the additive genetic variance and, therefore enhances their evolutionary response. Considering evolutionary dynamics of allele frequency change on an adaptive landscape, we show that this landscape differs from the mean fitness surface, and therefore, under some condition, fitness peaks can exist but not be “available” to the evolving population.     

How to quantify (the response to) sexual selection on traits

Natural selection operates via fitness components like mating success, fecundity, and longevity, which can be understood as intermediaries in the causal process linking traits to fitness. In particular, sexual selection occurs when traits influence mating or fertilization success, which, in turn, influences fitness. We show how to quantify both these steps in a single path analysis, leading to better estimates of the strength of sexual selection. Our model controls for confounding variables, such as body size or condition, when estimating the relationship between mating and reproductive success. Correspondingly, we define the Bateman gradient and the Jones index using partial rather than simple regressions, which better captures how they are commonly interpreted. The model can be applied both to purely phenotypic data and to quantitative genetic parameters estimated using information on relatedness. The phenotypic approach breaks down selection differentials into a sexually selected and a “remainder” component. The quantitative genetic approach decomposes the estimated evolutionary response to selection analogously. We apply our method to analyze sexual selection in male dusky pipefish, Syngnathus floridae, and in two simulated datasets. We highlight conceptual and statistical limitations of previous path‐based approaches, which can lead to substantial misestimation of sexual selection.     

Selection on skewed characters and the paradox of stasis

Observed phenotypic responses to selection in the wild often differ from predictions based on measurements of selection and genetic variance. An overlooked hypothesis to explain this paradox of stasis is that a skewed phenotypic distribution affects natural selection and evolution. We show through mathematical modeling that, when a trait selected for an optimum phenotype has a skewed distribution, directional selection is detected even at evolutionary equilibrium, where it causes no change in the mean phenotype. When environmental effects are skewed, Lande and Arnold's (1983) directional gradient is in the direction opposite to the skew. In contrast, skewed breeding values can displace the mean phenotype from the optimum, causing directional selection in the direction of the skew. These effects can be partitioned out using alternative selection estimates based on average derivatives of individual relative fitness, or additive genetic covariances between relative fitness and trait (Robertson–Price identity). We assess the validity of these predictions using simulations of selection estimation under moderate sample sizes. Ecologically relevant traits may commonly have skewed distributions, as we here exemplify with avian laying date — repeatedly described as more evolutionarily stable than expected — so this skewness should be accounted for when investigating evolutionary dynamics in the wild.     

Reaction norms of Arabidopsis. V. Flowering time controls phenotypic architecture in response to nutrient stress

The evolutionary and environmental stability of character correlations has increasingly been the focus of ecological and quantitative genetic studies. Although the genetic stability of character correlations is a central assumption of quantitative genetic models of phenotypic evolution, theoretical considerations suggest that both the genetic and the phenotypic architecture should change in response to selection and to environmental heterogeneity. We investigate genetic (population) differences and plasticity to nutrient availability of the phenotypic architecture describing the whole-plant phenotype of Arabidopsis thaliana (Brassicaceae). We found significant genetic differences among early and late flowering ecotypes in the relationships between several traits, when a path-analytical model was used to estimate character correlations. Furthermore, we found significant plasticity of several path coefficients when nutrient levels were altered. A whole-plant analysis considering all paths in the model simultaneously confirmed that populations of A. thaliana are characterized by distinct phenotypic architectures, and that these are altered in different ways by environmental changes. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of selective pressure on and response by multivariate phenotypes.