Prediction of additive genetic effects for the QTL-cluster on the basis of data on surrounding markers in outbred populations

This paper described a method for predicting additive effects of a cluster of tightly linked QTLs for outbred populations of animals in the situation where the QTLs are located on a chromosome segment surrounded by multiple linked DNA markers. We present a mixed model method for best linear unbiased prediction (conditional to the marker data) of the additive effects of the QTL-cluster and of the remaining QTLs unlinked to the marker linkage group. This method takes into consideration the identity-by-descent proportion (IBDP) for the particular chromosomal segment, in contrast to some other methods which use IBD probabilities at one specific location. In this method, fully informative data on different flanking markers is used to calculate the values of the expectations of the IBDPs (EIBDPs) between gametes for animals to be evaluated. Then the expected values are used as the elements of the gametic relationship matrix required in the best linear unbiased prediction. Giving a small numerical example, we illustrate how the present method can be used for the prediction of the QTL-cluster effects and for genetic evaluation of animals in outbred populations. A computational strategy is discussed on the basis of the calculation of the EIBDPs and the inverted gametic relationship matrix in complex pedigrees.     

On marker-assisted prediction of genetic value: beyond the ridge

Marked-assisted genetic improvement of agricultural species exploits statistical dependencies in the joint distribution of marker genotypes and quantitative traits. An issue is how molecular (e.g., dense marker maps) and phenotypic information (e.g., some measure of yield in plants) is to be used for predicting the genetic value of candidates for selection. Multiple regression, selection index techniques, best linear unbiased prediction, and ridge regression of phenotypes on marker genotypes have been suggested, as well as more elaborate methods. Here, phenotype-marker associations are modeled hierarchically via multilevel models including chromosomal effects, a spatial covariance of marked effects within chromosomes, background genetic variability, and family heterogeneity. Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients are suggested for assessing the inequality of the contribution of different marked effects to genetic variability. Classical and Bayesian methods are presented. The Bayesian approach includes a Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation. The generality and flexibility of the Bayesian method is illustrated when a Lorenz curve is to be inferred.     

The effect of using approximate gametic variance covariance matrices on marker assisted selection by BLUP

Under additive inheritance, the Henderson mixed model equations (HMME) provide an efficient approach to obtaining genetic evaluations by marker assisted best linear unbiased prediction (MABLUP) given pedigree relationships, trait and marker data. For large pedigrees with many missing markers, however, it is not feasible to calculate the exact gametic variance covariance matrix required to construct HMME. The objective of this study was to investigate the consequences of using approximate gametic variance covariance matrices on response to selection by MABLUP. Two methods were used to generate approximate variance covariance matrices. The first method (Method A) completely discards the marker information for individuals with an unknown linkage phase between two flanking markers. The second method (Method B) makes use of the marker information at only the most polymorphic marker locus for individuals with an unknown linkage phase. Data sets were simulated with and without missing marker data for flanking markers with 2, 4, 6, 8 or 12 alleles. Several missing marker data patterns were considered. The genetic variability explained by marked quantitative trait loci (MQTL) was modeled with one or two MQTL of equal effect. Response to selection by MABLUP using Method A or Method B were compared with that obtained by MABLUP using the exact genetic variance covariance matrix, which was estimated using 15 000 samples from the conditional distribution of genotypic values given the observed marker data. For the simulated conditions, the superiority of MABLUP over BLUP based only on pedigree relationships and trait data varied between 0.1% and 13.5% for Method A, between 1.7% and 23.8% for Method B, and between 7.6% and 28.9% for the exact method. The relative performance of the methods under investigation was not affected by the number of MQTL in the model.     

Unraveling Additive from Nonadditive Effects Using Genomic Relationship Matrices

The application of quantitative genetics in plant and animal breeding has largely focused on additive models, which may also capture dominance and epistatic effects. Partitioning genetic variance into its additive and nonadditive components using pedigree-based models (P-genomic best linear unbiased predictor) (P-BLUP) is difficult with most commonly available family structures. However, the availability of dense panels of molecular markers makes possible the use of additive- and dominance-realized genomic relationships for the estimation of variance components and the prediction of genetic values (G-BLUP). We evaluated height data from a multifamily population of the tree species Pinus taeda with a systematic series of models accounting for additive, dominance, and first-order epistatic interactions (additive by additive, dominance by dominance, and additive by dominance), using either pedigree- or marker-based information. We show that, compared with the pedigree, use of realized genomic relationships in marker-based models yields a substantially more precise separation of additive and nonadditive components of genetic variance. We conclude that the marker-based relationship matrices in a model including additive and nonadditive effects performed better, improving breeding value prediction. Moreover, our results suggest that, for tree height in this population, the additive and nonadditive components of genetic variance are similar in magnitude. This novel result improves our current understanding of the genetic control and architecture of a quantitative trait and should be considered when developing breeding strategies.     

Analysis of cytoplasmic and maternal effects. II. Genetic models for triploid endosperms

Genetic models for quantitative traits of triploid endosperms are proposed for the analysis of direct gene effects, cytoplasmic effects, and maternal gene effects. The maternal effect is partitioned into maternal additive and dominance components. In the full genetic model, the direct effect is partitioned into direct additive and dominance components and high-order dominance component, which are the cumulative effects of three-allele interactions. If the high-order dominance effects are of no importance, a reduced genetic model can be used. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted in this study for demonstrating unbiasedness of estimated variance and covariance components from the MINQUE (0/1) procedure, which is a minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) method setting 0 for all the prior covariances and 1 for all the prior variances. Robustness of estimating variance and covariance components for the genetic models was tested by simulations. Both full and reduced genetic models are shown to be robust for estimating variance and covariance components under several situations of no specific effects. Efficiency of predicting random genetic effects for the genetic models by the MINQUE (0/1) procedure was compared with the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). A worked example is given to illustrate the use of the reduced genetic model for kernel growth characteristics in corn (Zea mays L.).     

Genetic evaluation by best linear unbiased prediction using marker and trait information in a multibreed population.

Genetic evaluation by best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) requires modeling genetic means, variances, and covariances. This paper presents theory to model means, variances, and covariances in a multibreed population, given marker and breed information, in the presence of gametic disequilibrium between the marker locus (ML) and linked quantitative trait locus (MQTL). Theory and algorithms are presented to construct the matrix of conditional covariances between relatives (Gv) for the MQTL effects in a multibreed population and to obtain the inverse of Gv efficiently. Theory presented here accounts for heterogeneity of variances among pure breeds and for segregation variances between pure breeds. A numerical example was used to illustrate how the theory and algorithms can be used for genetic evaluation by BLUP using marker and trait information in a multibreed population.     

Accounting for Genetic Architecture Improves Sequence Based Genomic Prediction for a Drosophila Fitness Trait

The ability to predict quantitative trait phenotypes from molecular polymorphism data will revolutionize evolutionary biology, medicine and human biology, and animal and plant breeding. Efforts to map quantitative trait loci have yielded novel insights into the biology of quantitative traits, but the combination of individually significant quantitative trait loci typically has low predictive ability. Utilizing all segregating variants can give good predictive ability in plant and animal breeding populations, but gives little insight into trait biology. Here, we used the Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel to perform both a genome wide association analysis and genomic prediction for the fitness-related trait chill coma recovery time. We found substantial total genetic variation for chill coma recovery time, with a genetic architecture that differs between males and females, a small number of molecular variants with large main effects, and evidence for epistasis. Although the top additive variants explained 36% (17%) of the genetic variance among lines in females (males), the predictive ability using genomic best linear unbiased prediction and a relationship matrix using all common segregating variants was very low for females and zero for males. We hypothesized that the low predictive ability was due to the mismatch between the infinitesimal genetic architecture assumed by the genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and the true genetic architecture of chill coma recovery time. Indeed, we found that the predictive ability of the genomic best linear unbiased prediction model is markedly improved when we combine quantitative trait locus mapping with genomic prediction by only including the top variants associated with main and epistatic effects in the relationship matrix. This trait-associated prediction approach has the advantage that it yields biologically interpretable prediction models.     

A model for marker-assisted selection among single crosses with multiple genetic markers

 Trait means of marker genotypes are often inconsistent across experiments, thereby hindering the use of regression techniques in marker-assisted selection. Best linear unbiased prediction based on trait and marker data (TM-BLUP) does not require prior information on the mean effects associated with specific marker genotypes and, consequently, may be useful in applied breeding programs. The objective of this paper is to present a flanking-marker, TM-BLUP model that is applicable to interpopulation single crosses that characterize maize (Zea mays L.) breeding programs. The performance of a single cross is modeled as the sum of testcross additive and dominance effects at unmarked quantitative trait loci (QTL) and at marked QTL (MQTL). The TM-BLUP model requires information on the recombination frequencies between flanking markers and the MQTL and on MQTL variances. A tabular method is presented for calculating the conditional probability that MQTL alleles in two inbreds are identical by descent given the observed marker genotypes (G ^k _obs) at the kth MQTL. Information on identity by descent of MQTL alleles can then be used to calculate the conditional covariance of MQTL effects between single crosses given G ^k _obs. The inverse of the covariance matrix for dominance effects at unmarked QTL and MQTL can be written directly from the inverse of the covariance matrices of the corresponding testcross additive effects. In practice, the computations required in TM-BLUP may be prohibitive. The computational requirements may be reduced with simplified TM-BLUP models wherein dominance effects at MQTL are excluded, only the single crosses that have been tested are included, or information is pooled across several MQTL. Received: 22 June 1997 / Accepted: 25 February 1998     

Prediction error variance and expected response to selection,when selection is based on the best predictor – for Gaussian and threshold characters,traits following a Poisson mixed model and survival traits

In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed or random effects). In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found – otherwise unbiased estimates are given) for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits – and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part of the model (heritability on the normally distributed level of the model) or a generalised version of heritability plays a central role in these formulas.     

Analysis of cytoplasmic and maternal effects I. A genetic model for diploid plant seeds and animals

A genetic model for modified diallel crosses is proposed for estimating variance and covariance components of cytoplasmic, maternal additive and dominance effects, as well as direct additive and dominance effects. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to compare the efficiencies of minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) methods. For both balanced and unbalanced mating designs, MINQUE (0/1), which has 0 for all the prior covariances and 1 for all the prior variances, has similar efficiency to MINQUE(), which has parameter values for the prior values. Unbiased estimates of variance and covariance components and their sampling variances could be obtained with MINQUE(0/1) and jackknifing. A t-test following jackknifing is applicable to test hypotheses for zero variance and covariance components. The genetic model is robust for estimating variance and covariance components under several situations of no specific effects. A MINQUE(0/1) procedure is suggested for unbiased estimation of covariance components between two traits with equal design matrices. Methods of unbiased prediction for random genetic effects are discussed. A linear unbiased prediction (LUP) method is shown to be efficient for the genetic model. An example is given for a demonstration of estimating variance and covariance components and predicting genetic effects.     

Analysis of Conditional Genetic Effects and Variance Components in Developmental Genetics

A genetic model with additive-dominance effects and genotype X environment interactions is presented for quantitative traits with time-dependent measures. The genetic model for phenotypic means at time t conditional on phenotypic means measured at previous time (t - 1) is defined. Statistical methods are proposed for analyzing conditional genetic effects and conditional genetic variance components. Conditional variances can be estimated by minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) method. An adjusted unbiased prediction (AUP) procedure is suggested for predicting conditional genetic effects. A worked example from cotton fruiting data is given for comparison of unconditional and conditional genetic variances and additive effects.     

Use of Multiple Genetic Markers in Prediction of Breeding Values

Genotypes at a marker locus give information on transmission of genes from parents to offspring and that information can be used in predicting the individuals' additive genetic value at a linked quantitative trait locus (MQTL). In this paper a recursive method is presented to build the gametic relationship matrix for an autosomal MQTL which requires knowledge on recombination rate between the marker locus and the MQTL linked to it. A method is also presented to obtain the inverse of the gametic relationship matrix. This information can be used in a mixed linear model for simultaneous evaluation of fixed effects, gametic effects at the MQTL and additive genetic effects due to quantitative trait loci unlinked to the marker locus (polygenes). An equivalent model can be written at the animal level using the numerator relationship matrix for the MQTL and a method for obtaining the inverse of this matrix is presented. Information on several unlinked marker loci, each of them linked to a different locus affecting the trait of interest, can be used by including an effect for each MQTL. The number of equations per animal in this case is 2m + 1 where m is the number of MQTL. A method is presented to reduce the number of equations per animal to one by combining information on all MQTL and polygenes into one numerator relationship matrix. It is illustrated how the method can accommodate individuals with partial or no marker information. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the methods presented. Opportunities to use the presented model in constructing genetic maps are discussed.     

Covariance between relatives in multibreed populations: additive model

Covariance between relatives in a multibreed population was derived for an additive model with multiple unlinked loci. An efficient algorithm to compute the inverse of the additive genetic covariance matrix is given. For an additive model, the variance for a crossbred individual is a function of the additive variances for the pure breeds, the covariance between parents, and segregation variances. Provided that the variance of a crossbred individual is computed as presented here, the covariance between crossbred relatives can be computed using formulae for purebred populations. For additive traits the inverse of the genotypic covariance matrix given here can be used both to obtain genetic evaluations by best linear unbiased prediction and to estimate genetic parameters by maximum likelihood in multibreed populations. For nonadditive traits, the procedure currently used to analyze multibreed data can be improved using the theory presented here to compute additive covariances together with a suitable approximation for nonadditive covariances.Supported in part by the Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station, Hatch Projects 35-0345 (RLF) and 35-0367 (MG)     

Mixed Model Methods for Genomic Prediction and Variance Component Estimation of Additive and Dominance Effects Using SNP Markers

We established a genomic model of quantitative trait with genomic additive and dominance relationships that parallels the traditional quantitative genetics model, which partitions a genotypic value as breeding value plus dominance deviation and calculates additive and dominance relationships using pedigree information. Based on this genomic model, two sets of computationally complementary but mathematically identical mixed model methods were developed for genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and genomic restricted maximum likelihood estimation (GREML) of additive and dominance effects using SNP markers. These two sets are referred to as the CE and QM sets, where the CE set was designed for large numbers of markers and the QM set was designed for large numbers of individuals. GBLUP and associated accuracy formulations for individuals in training and validation data sets were derived for breeding values, dominance deviations and genotypic values. Simulation study showed that GREML and GBLUP generally were able to capture small additive and dominance effects that each accounted for 0.00005–0.0003 of the phenotypic variance and GREML was able to differentiate true additive and dominance heritability levels. GBLUP of the total genetic value as the summation of additive and dominance effects had higher prediction accuracy than either additive or dominance GBLUP, causal variants had the highest accuracy of GREML and GBLUP, and predicted accuracies were in agreement with observed accuracies. Genomic additive and dominance relationship matrices using SNP markers were consistent with theoretical expectations. The GREML and GBLUP methods can be an effective tool for assessing the type and magnitude of genetic effects affecting a phenotype and for predicting the total genetic value at the whole genome level.     

Estimating effects of a single gene and polygenes on quantitative traits from a diallel design

A genetic model is developed with additive and dominance effects of a single gene and polygenes as well as general and specific reciprocal effects for the progeny from a diallel mating design. The methods of ANOVA, minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE), restricted maximum likelihood estimation (REML), and maximum likelihood estimation (ML) are suggested for estimating variance components, and the methods of generalized least squares (GLS) and ordinary least squares (OLS) for fixed effects, while best linear unbiased prediction, linear unbiased prediction (LUP), and adjusted unbiased prediction are suggested for analyzing random effects. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to evaluate the unbiasedness and efficiency of statistical methods involving two diallel designs with commonly used sample sizes, 6 and 8 parents, with no and missing crosses, respectively. Simulation results show that GLS and OLS are almost equally efficient for estimation of fixed effects, while MINQUE (1) and REML are better estimators of the variance components and LUP is most practical method for prediction of random effects. Data from a Drosophila melanogaster experiment (Gilbert 1985a, Theor appl Genet 69:625–629) were used as a working example to demonstrate the statistical analysis. The new methodology is also applicable to screening candidate gene(s) and to other mating designs with multiple parents, such as nested (NC Design I) and factorial (NC Design II) designs. Moreover, this methodology can serve as a guide to develop new methods for detecting indiscernible major genes and mapping quantitative trait loci based on mixture distribution theory. The computer program for the methods suggested in this article is freely available from the authors.     

Factors Affecting Accuracy From Genomic Selection in Populations Derived From Multiple Inbred Lines: A Barley Case Study

We compared the accuracies of four genomic-selection prediction methods as affected by marker density, level of linkage disequilibrium (LD), quantitative trait locus (QTL) number, sample size, and level of replication in populations generated from multiple inbred lines. Marker data on 42 two-row spring barley inbred lines were used to simulate high and low LD populations from multiple inbred line crosses: the first included many small full-sib families and the second was derived from five generations of random mating. True breeding values (TBV) were simulated on the basis of 20 or 80 additive QTL. Methods used to derive genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) were random regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR–BLUP), Bayes-B, a Bayesian shrinkage regression method, and BLUP from a mixed model analysis using a relationship matrix calculated from marker data. Using the best methods, accuracies of GEBV were comparable to accuracies from phenotype for predicting TBV without requiring the time and expense of field evaluation. We identified a trade-off between a method's ability to capture marker-QTL LD vs. marker-based relatedness of individuals. The Bayesian shrinkage regression method primarily captured LD, the BLUP methods captured relationships, while Bayes-B captured both. Under most of the study scenarios, mixed-model analysis using a marker-derived relationship matrix (BLUP) was more accurate than methods that directly estimated marker effects, suggesting that relationship information was more valuable than LD information. When markers were in strong LD with large-effect QTL, or when predictions were made on individuals several generations removed from the training data set, however, the ranking of method performance was reversed and BLUP had the lowest accuracy.     

Reinventing quantitative genetics for plant breeding: something old,something new,something borrowed,something BLUE

The goals of quantitative genetics differ according to its field of application. In plant breeding, the main focus of quantitative genetics is on identifying candidates with the best genotypic value for a target population of environments. Keeping quantitative genetics current requires keeping old concepts that remain useful, letting go of what has become archaic, and introducing new concepts and methods that support contemporary breeding. The core concept of continuous variation being due to multiple Mendelian loci remains unchanged. Because the entirety of germplasm available in a breeding program is not in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, classical concepts that assume random mating, such as the average effect of an allele and additive variance, need to be retired in plant breeding. Doing so is feasible because with molecular markers, mixed-model approaches that require minimal genetic assumptions can be used for best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) and prediction. Plant breeding would benefit from borrowing approaches found useful in other disciplines. Examples include reliability as a new measure of the influence of genetic versus nongenetic effects, and operations research and simulation approaches for designing breeding programs. The genetic entities in such simulations should not be generic but should be represented by the pedigrees, marker data, and phenotypic data for the actual germplasm in a breeding program. Over the years, quantitative genetics in plant breeding has become increasingly empirical and computational and less grounded in theory. This trend will continue as the amount and types of data available in a breeding program increase.Subject terms: Plant sciences, Genetics     

种畜生产性能测验的评定中采用简化动物模型的BLUP法研究

本文是探讨采用简化动物模型计算最优线性无偏预测值(BLUP)的方法。BLUP是一种评定种畜遗传价值的有效方法,但是如果涉及的动物很多,则需要解较大系列的方程,常使计算代价很大,而采用一种减少评定种畜育种值的元素数的等价线性模型,可以大大简化计算。这里利用普通动物模型和简化动物模型,以包括父亲和外祖父后裔测验资料的一组简单数据为例,对比说明这两种解法计算的BLUP值的恒等性。一般采用包括父亲和外祖父的简化模型与普通模型比较,方程组的阶数可缩小30—50％左右,解亲缘系数矩阵的逆阵和混合模型方程组所需时间减少到10％左右,计算机的存储记忆也大大减少。     

Predicting genetic values: a kernel-based best linear unbiased prediction with genomic data

Genomic data provide a valuable source of information for modeling covariance structures, allowing a more accurate prediction of total genetic values (GVs). We apply the kriging concept, originally developed in the geostatistical context for predictions in the low-dimensional space, to the high-dimensional space spanned by genomic single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) vectors and study its properties in different gene-action scenarios. Two different kriging methods ["universal kriging" (UK) and "simple kriging" (SK)] are presented. As a novelty, we suggest use of the family of Matérn covariance functions to model the covariance structure of SNP vectors. A genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) is applied as a reference method. The three approaches are compared in a whole-genome simulation study considering additive, additive-dominance, and epistatic gene-action models. Predictive performance is measured in terms of correlation between true and predicted GVs and average true GVs of the individuals ranked best by prediction. We show that UK outperforms GBLUP in the presence of dominance and epistatic effects. In a limiting case, it is shown that the genomic covariance structure proposed by VanRaden (2008) can be considered as a covariance function with corresponding quadratic variogram. We also prove theoretically that if a specific linear relationship exists between covariance matrices for two linear mixed models, the GVs resulting from BLUP are linked by a scaling factor. Finally, the relation of kriging to other models is discussed and further options for modeling the covariance structure, which might be more appropriate in the genomic context, are suggested.     

性状遗传力与QTL方差对标记辅助选择效果的影响

在采用动物模型标记辅助最佳线性无偏预测方法对个体育种值进行估计的基础上,模拟了在一个闭锁群体内连续对单个性状选择10个世代的情形,并系统地比较了性状遗传力和QTL方差对标记辅助选择所获得的遗传进展、QTL增效基因频率和群体近交系数变化的影响。结果表明：在对高遗传力和QTL方差较小的性状实施标记辅助选择时,可望获得更大的遗传进展;遗传力越高,QTL方差越大,则QTL增效基因频率的上升速度越快;遗传力较高时,群体近交系数上升的速度较为缓慢,而QTL方差对群体近交系数上升速度的影响则不甚明显。结合前人关于标记辅助选择相对效率的研究结果,可以认为：当选择性状的遗传力和QTL方差为中等水平时,标记辅助选择可望获得理想的效果。