一种新的放射治疗计划优化方法

在采用多射线束的放射治疗中,治疗计划优化是一个重要的步骤。本文描述了一种新的治疗计划优化方法。它是基于治疗医理由对治疗过程中各因素的综合考虑,弥补了传统方法的不足,具有较高的准确性。     

个体运动的病毒传播行为模拟

提出了一个基于二维规则网格的SIS(Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible)动态疾病传播模型,并用元胞自动机方法进行计算机模拟,考查该模型中感染概率、治愈概率、人群密度及人群的流动对疾病传播的影响,结果表明,系统的稳态感染比例随感染概率和人群密度的增加而增大,随治愈概率的增加而减小,同等条件下流动人群比静止人群更容易传播疾病,根据这些研究结论最后给出了对应的疾病预防和控制措施。     

Site occupancy models with heterogeneous detection probabilities

Models for estimating the probability of occurrence of a species in the presence of imperfect detection are important in many ecological disciplines. In these "site occupancy" models, the possibility of heterogeneity in detection probabilities among sites must be considered because variation in abundance (and other factors) among sampled sites induces variation in detection probability (p). In this article, I develop occurrence probability models that allow for heterogeneous detection probabilities by considering several common classes of mixture distributions for p. For any mixing distribution, the likelihood has the general form of a zero-inflated binomial mixture for which inference based upon integrated likelihood is straightforward. A recent paper by Link demonstrates that in closed population models used for estimating population size, different classes of mixture distributions are indistinguishable from data, yet can produce very different inferences about population size. I demonstrate that this problem can also arise in models for estimating site occupancy in the presence of heterogeneous detection probabilities. The implications of this are discussed in the context of an application to avian survey data and the development of animal monitoring programs.     

Survival rates in a natural population of the damselfly Ceriagrion tenellum: effects of sex and female phenotype

1. Ceriagrion tenellum females show genetic colour polymorphism. Androchrome (erythrogastrum) females are brightly (male‐like) coloured while gynochrome females (typica and melanogastrum) show cryptic colouration. 2. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the existence of more than one female morph in damselfly populations. The reproductive isolation and intraspecific mimicry hypotheses predict greater survival of gynochrome females, while the density dependent hypothesis predicts no differential survival between morphs. 3. Mature males had greater recapture probability than females while the survival probability was similar for both sexes. Survival and recapture rates were similar for androchrome and gynochrome females. 4. Gynochrome females showed greater mortality or migration rate than androchrome females during the pre‐reproductive period. This result is not predicted by the above hypotheses or by the null hypothesis that colour polymorphism is only maintained by random factors: founder effects, genetic drift, and migration.     

Logical Probability and Risk Assessment

A risk assessment is intended to provide a statement of current knowledge which is intended to inform a decision-maker of the current state of knowledge in response to a particular concern. Because answering the concerns of decision-makers often requires inferences to be drawn, doubt often arises over how the inference is to be drawn. In quantitative risk assessment, where a mathematical equation or model is used to draw the inference, this uncertainty is referred to as model uncertainty. A two-step process, which is referred to as logical probability, is proposed as a technique for representing model uncertainty in a risk assessment. The first step involves assigning model weights in which the degree of evidential support for each of the alternative models is considered. The second step involves assigning a unique interval in the range of 0 to 1 for each model which reflects the models' weight, to form a probability distribution. While the second step is straightforward, the first step is not. Assigning model weights requires consideration of any line of evidence that may reasonably impact the validity of the assertion of a model. While the development of a procedure for doing so may be expected to be a process which reflects the subjective preferences of whomever is involved in creating it, there are some historical precedents on which to build. Foremost among these are (1) the use of a correlation coefficient or other goodness-of-fit criteria to measure the degree of correspondence between a given model and a set of observations which are used as evidence to support it, and (2) preference given to models which are simpler, which may be ascertained as the number of adjustable parameters the model contains. Additional principles, which have little or no tradition to stand on, must be used to reflect the impact of other empirically supported beliefs on model preference. The procedure proposed is comparable to the procedure known as decision analysis, in which probabilities are assigned to alternative models based on expert or subjective input. The principal difference in the present case is that it is suggested that principles which transcend the decision at hand should be sought and articulated in order to generate a consistent measure of uncertainty arising from interpretation.     

关于质体随细胞分裂传递的数学模型

本文根据质体是具有遗传功能的细胞器这一事实出发,对质体传递规律首次进行了定量研究,建立了突变质体在细胞分裂中传递的全概率和条件概率公式．并对此公式的应用作了进一步的探讨．本文所提供的方法将为质体遗传开辟一条定量研究的新路．     

Maintaining optimal state probabilities in biological systems

A biological problem is usually studied experimentally by reducing it into a number of modules. In contrast, the systems biology approach seeks to address the collective behavior of interacting molecules vis-a-vis the corresponding higher level behavior. Various attributes of a biological system are conditionally dependent on each other, and these conditionalities are usually represented through Bayesian networks for computing easily the joint probability for a state of an attribute. In this article, a genetic algorithm is investigated to a biological system, by representing it through a Bayesian network, for evaluating the optimum state probabilities of different attributes, in order to obtain a desired joint probability for a given state of an attribute. We believe that such a study would be helpful in achieving a desired health condition by maintaining various attributes of a system to their estimated optimum levels.     

πPS Sampling Scheme Through Grouping

A πPS sampling scheme is developed by combining Stevens and Midzuno-Sen Sampling schemes. The restriction on original probabilities is less severe in the proposed scheme than that in Stevens and Midzuno-Sen schemes. The performance of the scheme is satisfactory.     

The probability of matching genetic markers in different samples

Hypervariable DNA polymorphisms in humans have been introduced in forensic science for the exclusion of innocent persons, and possibily for the identification of guilty ones, through mismatches and matches of DNA patterns in incriminating samples. Under the assumption of random mating and linkage equilibrium, it is observed that the probability of mismatch, then of exclusion of innocent persons, is very high. The probability of a match on the contrary may be very low, particularly when several hypervariable DNA polymorphisms are used for the DNA pattern. When a match is observed, and the probability of match is calculated, and it is lower than one in five billions, this might be considered incriminating by a judge. It is concluded that an innocent person has all advantages in submitting to the DNA fingerprinting test.     

Optimizing occupancy surveys by maximizing detection probability: application to amphibian monitoring in the Mediterranean region

• Setting up effective conservation strategies requires the precise determination of the targeted species’ distribution area and, if possible, its local abundance. However, detection issues make these objectives complex for most vertebrates. The detection probability is usually <1 and is highly dependent on species phenology and other environmental variables. The aim of this study was to define an optimized survey protocol for the Mediterranean amphibian community, that is, to determine the most favorable periods and the most effective sampling techniques for detecting all species present on a site in a minimum number of field sessions and a minimum amount of prospecting effort. We visited 49 ponds located in the Languedoc region of southern France on four occasions between February and June 2011. Amphibians were detected using three methods: nighttime call count, nighttime visual encounter, and daytime netting. The detection nondetection data obtained was then modeled using site‐occupancy models. The detection probability of amphibians sharply differed between species, the survey method used and the date of the survey. These three covariates also interacted. Thus, a minimum of three visits spread over the breeding season, using a combination of all three survey methods, is needed to reach a 95% detection level for all species in the Mediterranean region. Synthesis and applications: detection nondetection surveys combined to site occupancy modeling approach are powerful methods that can be used to estimate the detection probability and to determine the prospecting effort necessary to assert that a species is absent from a site.

     

Markov Systematic Sampling

In this paper, a new systematic sampling scheme with Markovian behaviour which yields positive first order inclusion probabilities for all units and positive second order inclusion probabilities for all pairs of units is introduced. The suggested method has been compared with sample random sampling, stratified random sampling, linear systematic sampling and systematic sampling with two random starts for the populations exhibiting exponential trend, autocorrelatedness and randomness. Throughout the discussion, the sample size is assumed to be even and the population size is a multiple of the sample size. The suggested method works well for estimating a finite population total for the population exhibiting exponential trend.     

Effects of dominance on the probability of fixation of a mutant allele

We consider whether the fixation probability of an allele in a two-allele diploid system is always a monotonic function of the selective advantage of the allele. We show that while this conjecture is correct for intermediate dominance, it is not correct in general for either overdominant or underdominant alleles, and that for some parameter ranges the fixation probability can initially decrease and then increase as a function of the amount of selection. We have partial results that characterize the ranges of parameters for which this happens.      

A stochastic repair—misrepair model for the effects of radiation on cells

The purpose of this paper is to present a stochastic model for effects of radiation on cells. The model includes provisions for lethal effects and for transformation to malignant status. Empirical findings indicate the presence of some repair mechanism in the cells, and a way to incorporate this idea into the model is discussed. Comparisons of the derived survival and transformation probabilities with actual data are favorable. The interpretation of the estimated values leads to questions to be investigated by the experimenters.Supported in part by the Graduate Research Board, University of Maryland