Seasonality in the Incidence of Cervical Carcinoma in Teenagers and Young Adults in Northern England, 1968–2005

Infection with human papillomavirus is an established risk factor for cervical carcinoma. However, the role of other environmental factors is less well established. To further investigate whether other agents may be involved, the authors have analyzed seasonal variation in cervical cancer with respect to month of birth and separately month of diagnosis. All 85 cases diagnosed in 15–24-yr-olds during the period 1968–2005 were extracted from the specialist population-based Northern Region Young Persons' Malignant Disease Registry. The chi-square heterogeneity test was used to assess overall nonuniform variation in month of birth and separately month of diagnosis. Poisson regression analysis was used to fit sinusoidal (harmonic) models to the data using month of birth and month of diagnosis in separate models. Based on month of birth, there was statistically significant heterogeneity (p?=?.03) and a significant sinusoidal pattern, with an incidence peak involving births in the autumn months (p?=?.03). Based on month of diagnosis, there was marginally significant heterogeneity (p?=?.06). The evidence of seasonal variation around time of birth for cervical carcinoma is highly novel and suggests possible early etiological involvement of environmental factors. (Author correspondence: Richard.McNally@ncl.ac.uk)     

Birth month associations with height,head circumference,and limb lengths among peruvian children

Associations between season of birth and body size, morbidity, and mortality have been widely documented, but it is unclear whether different parts of the body are differentially sensitive, and if such effects persist through childhood. This may be relevant to understanding the relationship between early life environment and body size and proportions. We investigated associations between birth month and anthropometry among rural highland (n = 162) and urban lowland (n = 184) Peruvian children aged 6 months to 8 years. Stature; head‐trunk height; total limb, ulna, tibia, hand, and foot lengths; head circumference; and limb measurements relative to head‐trunk height were converted to internal age‐sex‐specific z scores. Lowland and highland datasets were then analyzed separately for birth month trends using cosinor analysis, as urban conditions likely provide a more consistent environment compared with anticipated seasonal variation in the rural highlands. Among highland children birth month associations were significant most strongly for tibia length, followed by total lower limb length and stature, with a peak among November births. Results were not significant for other measurements or among lowland children. The results suggest a prenatal or early postnatal environmental effect on growth that is more marked in limb lengths than trunk length or head size, and persists across the age range studied. We suggest that the results may reflect seasonal variation in maternal nutrition in the rural highlands, but other hypotheses such as variation in maternal vitamin D levels cannot be excluded. Am J Phys Anthropol 154:115–124, 2014. © 2014 The Authors. American Journal of Physical Anthropology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Association of birth weight and length with air temperature, sunlight, humidity and rainfall in the city of Warsaw, Poland

Several studies have shown the month of birth effect on birth weight and height of children. The mechanism of this phenomenon is not fully explained. Using data from Warsaw hospitals, the influence of four climatic factors (temperature, sunlight, humidity and rainfall) on birth outcomes was studied. The sample consisted of 10,631 neonates (5450 boys and 5181 girls) born between May 2004 and April 2005. Individual values for birth weight and length were standardised on the overall mean and standard deviation for all subjects, separately for each sex. Differences in means of Z-score birth outcomes between months, seasons and semi-annual periods of birth were assessed by one-way analysis of variance, separately for each sex. The relation between average values of four atmospheric factors and average neonatal outcomes for each month of birth was assessed by a weighted Spearman rank correlation. The results revealed significant differences in average Z-scores of neonate weight and length between months of birth for boys and girls. Significant seasonal variation in Z-scores means was only found for birth length in boys. The correlation between four atmospheric factors during pregnancy and birth length was the highest for boys and occurred in the second trimester. Second trimester of fetal growth is the period most sensitive to influences of climatic factors.     

Linkage analyses at the chromosome 1 loci 1q24-25 (HPC1), 1q42.2-43 (PCAP), and 1p36 (CAPB) in families with hereditary prostate cancer

Recent studies suggest that hereditary prostate cancer (PRCA) is a complex disease, involving multiple susceptibility genes and variable phenotypic expression. Through linkage analysis, potential prostate cancer susceptibility loci have been mapped to 3 regions on chromosome 1. To investigate the reported linkage to these regions, we conducted linkage studies on 144 PRCA families by using microsatellite markers in regions 1q24-25 (HPC1) and 1q42.2-43 (PCAP). We also examined the 1p36 (CAPB) region in 13 PRCA families with at least one case of brain cancer. No significant evidence of linkage to the HPC1 or PCAP region was found when the entire data set was analyzed. However, weak evidence for linkage to HPC1 was observed in the subset of families with male-to-male transmission (n=102; maximum multipoint nonparametric linkage [NPL] 1.99, P=.03). Weak evidence for linkage with heterogeneity within this subset was also observed (HLOD 1.21, P=.02), with approximately 20% of families linked. Although not statistically significant, suggestive evidence for linkage to PCAP was observed for the families (n=21) that met the three criteria of male-to-male transmission, average age of diagnosis <66 years, and >/=5 affected individuals (maximum multipoint NPL 1.45, P=.08). There was no evidence for linkage to CAPB in the brain cancer-prostate cancer subset. These results strengthen the argument that prostate cancer is a heterogeneous disease and that multiple genetic and environmental factors may be important for its etiology.     

Role of seasonal factors in pre- and postnatal ontogenesis for etiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus

Type 1 diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease characterized by autoimmune degradation of insulin-producing beta-cells. It was shown in a number of epidemiological studies of seasonality of birth in children with type 1 diabetes that the autoimmune process began during fetal and postnatal development. No such studies were carried out in the former Soviet Union countries. The aim of the present study is to compare the seasonal birth month pattern in patients with type 1 diabetes (10780 men and 9337 women) born in 1960-2002 to that in the total population of Ukraine (14 785601 men and 13 911370 women) born during the same period. Significant differences were found between these two populations: chi-squared = 103.97, p < 0.0001 and 135.17, p < 0.0001 in men and women, respectively. The results of cosinor analysis showed similar sinusoidal birth patterns of patients with type 1 diabetes in all sub-groups, irrespective of the age of clinical disease expression: 0-9, 10-19, or 20-29 years. In all cases, the highest and lowest predispositions to type 1 diabetes were inherent in the people born in spring and autumn, respectively. We propose that seasonal differences in the birth pattern in the two above populations could be due to long-term programming of glucose-insulin metabolism determined by the effect of certain seasonal factors during early ontogenesis.     

Seasonal variation in heart rate variability in asthmatic children

Asthma is a "seasonal disease" with symptoms either aggravated by environmental changes during specific seasons or prevalent at certain times of the year for other reasons. We examined whether the heart rate variability (HRV) of asthmatic children changes by season. The HRV during a portion of one night (00:00-04:00) and day (12:00-16:00) and the entire 24h period (00:00-24:00) during each of the four seasons was analyzed. The data of 95 children with asthma and 106 healthy children, as controls, were assessed. In children with asthma during the 24h period, seasonal variation in the low-frequency (LF) band (0.04-0.15 Hz) and the high-frequency (HF) band (0.15-0.4 Hz) were detected (HF: F=6.81, p=.0003; LF: F=4.18, p= .008). The HF value in the summer was significantly higher than in autumn and spring (Scheffe test: autumn vs. summer, s = 4.46, p < .001: spring vs. summer, s = 2.86, p < .05), while the LF value in autumn was significantly lower than in summer (s = 3.42, p < .01). In the control group, no seasonal variation in HF, LF, or LF/HF was detected. The findings infer the HRV, a surrogate measure of autonomic nervous system function, of asthmatic children is more susceptible to seasonal changes brought about by either endogenous annual rhythms or environmental weather phenomena.     

Seasonality of births and family characteristics in a Spanish population

The seasonality of births in the period 1871-1977 is studied in a rural north-western Spanish population. Based on a total sample of 11,695 birth registrations, temporal variation is analysed. For siblings, according to family reconstitution, the total family size, the legitimacy of the child, and birth order are considered. A coefficient of birth month dispersion is defined and estimated for each family. Intra-family variation is related to inter-family coefficients in order to determine whether the local seasonal pattern of births may be partly explained by family characteristics.     

Biological and Environmental Influences on Parturition Date and Birth Mass of a Seasonal Breeder

Natal features (e.g. Julian birth date and birth mass) often have fitness consequences and can be influenced by endogenous responses by the mother to seasonal fluctuations in nutritional quality and photoperiodic cues. We sought to further understand the biological and environmental factors that influence the natal features of a polytocous species in an environment with constant nutritional resources and limited seasonal variation. During a 36-year study we assessed the influence of biological factors (maternal age and litter type [i.e., litter size and sexual composition]) and environmental factors (total precipitation and mean maximum temperature during months encompassing conception, the last trimester of gestation, and the entire length of gestation) on Julian birth date and birth mass using linear-mixed effects models. Linear and quadratic functions of maternal age influenced both natal features with earliest Julian birth dates and heaviest birth masses occurring at prime-age and older individuals, which ranged from 5–9 years of age. Litter type influenced Julian birth date and birth mass. Interestingly, environmental factors affected Julian birth date and birth mass even though mothers were continuously allowed access to a high-quality diet. Random effects revealed considerable variation among mothers and years. This study demonstrates that, in long-lived polytocous species, environmental factors may have a greater influence on natal features than previously supposed and the influence from biological factors is also complex. The documented responses to environmental influences provide unique insights into how mammalian seasonal reproductive dynamics may respond to current changes in climate.     

Shared spatial effects on quantitative genetic parameters: accounting for spatial autocorrelation and home range overlap reduces estimates of heritability in wild red deer

Social structure, limited dispersal, and spatial heterogeneity in resources are ubiquitous in wild vertebrate populations. As a result, relatives share environments as well as genes, and environmental and genetic sources of similarity between individuals are potentially confounded. Quantitative genetic studies in the wild therefore typically account for easily captured shared environmental effects (e.g., parent, nest, or region). Fine-scale spatial effects are likely to be just as important in wild vertebrates, but have been largely ignored. We used data from wild red deer to build "animal models" to estimate additive genetic variance and heritability in four female traits (spring and rut home range size, offspring birth weight, and lifetime breeding success). We then, separately, incorporated spatial autocorrelation and a matrix of home range overlap into these models to estimate the effect of location or shared habitat on phenotypic variation. These terms explained a substantial amount of variation in all traits and their inclusion resulted in reductions in heritability estimates, up to an order of magnitude up for home range size. Our results highlight the potential of multiple covariance matrices to dissect environmental, social, and genetic contributions to phenotypic variation, and the importance of considering fine-scale spatial processes in quantitative genetic studies.     

Seasonal and inter-annual drivers of yellow fever transmission in South America

In the last 20 years yellow fever (YF) has seen dramatic changes to its incidence and geographic extent, with the largest outbreaks in South America since 1940 occurring in the previously unaffected South-East Atlantic coast of Brazil in 2016–2019. While habitat fragmentation and land-cover have previously been implicated in zoonotic disease, their role in YF has not yet been examined. We examined the extent to which vegetation, land-cover, climate and host population predicted the numbers of months a location reported YF per year and by each month over the time-period. Two sets of models were assessed, one looking at interannual differences over the study period (2003–2016), and a seasonal model looking at intra-annual differences by month, averaging over the years of the study period. Each was fit using hierarchical negative-binomial regression in an exhaustive model fitting process. Within each set, the best performing models, as measured by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), were combined to create ensemble models to describe interannual and seasonal variation in YF. The models reproduced the spatiotemporal heterogeneities in YF transmission with coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.43 (95% CI 0.41–0.45) for the interannual model and 0.66 (95% CI 0.64–0.67) for the seasonal model. For the interannual model, EVI, land-cover and vegetation heterogeneity were the primary contributors to the variance explained by the model, and for the seasonal model, EVI, day temperature and rainfall amplitude. Our models explain much of the spatiotemporal variation in YF in South America, both seasonally and across the period 2003–2016. Vegetation type (EVI), heterogeneity in vegetation (perhaps a proxy for habitat fragmentation) and land cover explain much of the trends in YF transmission seen. These findings may help understand the recent expansions of the YF endemic zone, as well as to the highly seasonal nature of YF.     

QUANTIFICATION OF THE SINUSOIDAL TRAJECTORY IN TISSUE MASS AND CONDITION INDICES OF A BIVALVE (EGERIA RADIATA) IN THE CROSS RIVER, NIGERIA

Variation in monthly values of dry tissue mass (DTM) and twodifferent types of condition indices of the bivalve Egeria radiata(Lamarck, 1804) was studied for 32 consecutive months. To quantifythe seasonal trajectory of variation these data were fittedto one- and two-compartment sinusoidal models; and also to aquadratic, cubic and quartic models. The cyclic events in thevariation of the DTM and both indices of condition were adequatelydescribed by the one-compartment sinusoidal model whose parametersare biologically interpretable. The fit of the data is progressivelyimproved as one moves from the quadratic through the cubic tothe quartic model whose fit was best. Although biological meaningcould be found for the one-compartment sinusoidal model, thebiological meaning of the coefficients of the parabolic-basedmodels are obscure. Multiple regression analysis shows thatof all the four environmental parameters (temperature, salinity,pH and phytoplankton) tested, temperature has the greatest effecton DTM and one of the condition indices, while pH has the greatestimpact on the other condition index. This implies that the twoindices are not only intrinsically different, but that theyrespond to different sets of factors. Inter- and intra-specificcomparison of the many recommended ‘standard’ indicesof condition found in the literature, especially with regardto their innate sensitivity to seasonal variation in internal(e.g. state of gravidity) and external (physicochemical parametersof water) factors is necessary. (Received 1 May 1996; accepted 30 August 1996)     

The influence of environmental variables on capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris: Rodentia, Hydrochoeridae) detectability in anthropogenic environments of southeastern Brazil

Capybaras were monitored weekly from 1998 to 2006 by counting individuals in three anthropogenic environments (mixed agricultural fields, forest and open areas) of southeastern Brazil in order to examine the possible influence of environmental variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and global radiation) on the detectability of this species. There was consistent seasonality in the number of capybaras in the study area, with a specific seasonal pattern in each area. Log-linear models were fitted to the sample counts of adult capybaras separately for each sampled area, with an allowance for monthly effects, time trends and the effects of environmental variables. Log-linear models containing effects for the months of the year and a quartic time trend were highly significant. The effects of environmental variables on sample counts were different in each type of environment. As environmental variables affect capybara detectability, they should be considered in future species survey/monitoring programs.     

基于地统计分析西印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼围网渔获量的空间异质性

西印度洋公海海域是世界上围网黄鳍金枪鱼渔业的主要作业海域之一,根据印度洋金枪鱼委员会1999—2004年的1°×1°的各月黄鳍金枪鱼围网渔获量统计数据,采用地统计方法探索该海域黄鳍金枪鱼渔获量的空间异质性特征及其相关生态动力过程。进行了如下分析:(1)利用GIS制图观察渔获量的时空分布特征,发现其空间格局的变异受到的季节变化和年际变化共同影响,且前者明显强于后者。(2)采用地统计方法计算各月渔获量的空间异质性参数,并按照年际和季节情况分别进行了统计分析,发现渔获量的地统计参数值和变异函数模型有明显的季节和年际差异;渔获量的空间相关距离(变程)平均在1000nm左右,冬季要小于夏季;渔获量的空间变异函数模型主要为相关距离较大且空间依赖性较弱的指数模型;渔获量的空间结构方差比例(平均为65.82%)远大于随机性方差比例(平均为34.18%);渔获量在1°×1°尺度下具有明显的空间自相关性。(3)对地统计参数值和渔获量的相关关系研究,并探讨季节变化下渔获量的空间异质性特征与相关生态动力过程关系,发现各月渔获量随着空间总变异(基台值)增加而增加,两者存在强相关性;各月渔获量和南北和西北-东南向分维数值有一定相关性,意味着海洋动力过程在南北和西北—东南向过程越强,渔获量越低。西印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼围网渔获量的空间变异原因在于季风气候和ENSO循环过程引起的海洋流场、营养盐和温跃层等变化外在因素,以及围网捕捞方式和鱼类的行为方式的内在因素共同导致的。     

Circannual distribution of glioblastoma and anaplastic astrocytoma diagnoses in men and women

Background: circannual variations of incidence may influence human tumors. For example, seasonal distribution of breast cancers suggests an influence of circannual hormonal rhythms. Periodicity of brain tumors has not yet been investigated. The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal variation in glioblastomas and anaplastic astrocytomas. Methods: a large dataset of high-grade gliomas (n = 697) was evaluated with the month of diagnosis as key criterion for time series and seasonal analysis. Circannual and ultra-annual cosinor models were calculated. Results: women suffering from glioblastoma show a peak incidence in fall. No suitable circannual or ultra-annual cosinor model months could be fitted to the data. In women with anaplastic astrocytoma, a peak incidence was detected in summer and fall with a nadir in spring. Here, a significant cosinor model with a period of 8.5 months could be calculated. Conclusion: our data strongly suggest seasonality of diagnosis of high-grade gliomas in women. As gliomas express hormonal receptors, an underlying endocrinal or cell proliferation rhythms may be a possible explanation.     

Birth seasonality and calf mortality in a large population of Asian elephants

In seasonal environments, many species concentrate their reproduction in the time of year most likely to maximize offspring survival. Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) inhabit regions with seasonal climate, but females can still experience 16‐week reproductive cycles throughout the year. Whether female elephants nevertheless concentrate births on periods with maximum offspring survival prospects remains unknown. We investigated the seasonal timing of births, and effects of birth month on short‐ and long‐term mortality of Asian elephants, using a unique demographic data set of 2350 semicaptive, longitudinally monitored logging elephants from Myanmar experiencing seasonal variation in both workload and environmental conditions. Our results show variation in birth rate across the year, with 41% of births occurring between December and March. This corresponds to the cool, dry period and the beginning of the hot season, and to conceptions occurring during the resting, nonlogging period between February and June. Giving birth during the peak December to March period improves offspring survival, as the odds for survival between age 1 and 5 years are 44% higher for individuals born during the high birth rate period than those conceived during working months. Our results suggest that seasonal conditions, most likely maternal workload and/or climate, limit conception rate and calf survival in this population through effects on maternal stress, estrus cycles, or access to mates. This has implications for improving the birth rate and infant survival in captive populations by limiting workload of females of reproductive age. As working populations are currently unsustainable and supplemented through the capture of wild elephants, it is imperative to the conservation of Asian elephants to understand and alleviate the effects of seasonal conditions on vital rates in the working population in order to reduce the pressure for further capture from the wild.     

Spatial-typological structure of bird communities in coniferous and deciduous forests of the Northern Volga region

Based on materials collected during continuous year-round strip censuses, the spatial heterogeneity of bird communities in coniferous and deciduous forests of the Northern Volga region was analyzed for the first time and the key factors determining it were identified. A spatial-temporal classification of bird communities of the study area was made, and a quantitative estimate of the strength and generality of the relationship between the spatial heterogeneity of bird communities and environmental factors is given. The spatial-temporal structure of bird communities is mainly determined by forest cover, seasonal variation in heat supply, tree species composition, build-up area, and relief.     

Seasonality of births in Homo sapiens in pre-industrial Finland: maximisation of offspring survivorship?

We examined the seasonal variation in human birth and infant survival rates in pre-modern Finland. If survival probabilities of children born during different seasons of the year differ and if timing of reproduction has been affected by natural selection, periodic variation in environment could have led to reproduction during the season of best infant survival expectations. Significant seasonal variation in both birth rate and survival probability was found, but the monthly birth and survival rates of newborn were uncorrelated. Hence, if there was any tendency to maximise the reproductive success, increase in some other component of fitness than the infant survival was probably targeted. The effect of major holidays on the birth rate was proved to be notable, suggesting that although the basis for seasonal variation in birth rate was biological, sociocultural factors had an impact on the timing of reproduction in humans. The overall mortality of infant boys exceeded that of infant girls in all seasons. This difference was smallest during the time of best food supplies, indicating that the development of males was less buffered against environmental disturbances than that of females.     

西南地区壳斗科物种丰富度和特有性分布格局模拟及其环境解释

如何准确地模拟物种宏观丰富度格局和特有性中心是生物多样性保护工作的重点,也是生物地理学的热点话题。西南地区是我国壳斗科植物最丰富的地区之一,但物种多样性格局及环境驱动机制尚不清楚。本研究基于西南地区161种壳斗科植物7258个分布点位数据,利用点格局法和物种分布模型两种方式构建了物种丰富度、加权特有性指数和校正加权特有性指数的分布格局,并采用空间自回归模型(SAR)分析上述3个多样性指数与环境因子间的关系。总体上看,物种分布模型模拟的3个指数在空间上比点格局法更为连续,但数值高低分布情况具有相似性: 两种方式模拟的物种丰富度高值区主要分布在滇南边缘、桂北部和桂西南部地区(62～89种);加权特有性指数最大值集中在滇南和桂西地区(1.77～5.02);藏东南、秦岭-大巴山、桂西南部和滇东南地区具有最高的校正加权特有性指数(0.07～0.17)。SAR模型结果显示:最干月降雨量、温度季节性变化标准差、海拔变幅和土壤有机碳含量对物种丰富度的影响均显著,最干月降雨量、温度季节性变化标准差、潜在蒸散量和海拔变幅对加权特有性有着显著影响,温度季节性变化标准差、最干月降雨量、历史温度变化、增强型植被指数变异系数和海拔变幅对校正加权特有性的影响显著;SAR模型对物种丰富度、特有性指数和加权特有性指数的拟合效果(R²=0.857、0.733、0.593)分别优于普通线性模型(R²=0.689、0.425、0.422)。综上,水分可获得性、气候季节性、生境异质性、历史气候变化和土壤状况是制约西南地区壳斗科丰富度和特有性分布的最重要因素。滇南、滇东南、桂西南、桂西、秦岭-大巴山以及藏东南地区是壳斗科物种丰富度中心或特有性中心,应受到重点关注和保护。     

On the roles of landscape heterogeneity and environmental variation in determining population genomic structure in a dendritic system

Dispersal and natural selection are key evolutionary processes shaping the distribution of phenotypic and genetic diversity. For species inhabiting complex spatial environments however, it is unclear how the balance between gene flow and selection may be influenced by landscape heterogeneity and environmental variation. Here, we evaluated the effects of dendritic landscape structure and the selective forces of hydroclimatic variation on population genomic parameters for the Murray River rainbowfish, Melanotaenia fluviatilis across the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. We genotyped 249 rainbowfish at 17,503 high‐quality SNP loci and integrated these with models of network connectivity and high‐resolution environmental data within a riverscape genomics framework. We tested competing models of gene flow before using multivariate genotype–environment association (GEA) analysis to test for signals of adaptive divergence associated with hydroclimatic variation. Patterns of neutral genetic variation were consistent with expectations based on the stream hierarchy model and M. fluviatilis’ moderate dispersal ability. Models incorporating dendritic network structure suggested that landscape heterogeneity is a more important factor determining connectivity and gene flow than waterway distance. Extending these results, we also introduce a novel approach to controlling for the unique effects of dendritic network structure in GEA analyses of populations of aquatic species. We identified 146 candidate loci potentially underlying a polygenic adaptive response to seasonal fluctuations in stream flow and variation in the relative timing of temperature and precipitation extremes. Our findings underscore an emerging predominant role for seasonal variation in hydroclimatic conditions driving local adaptation and are relevant for informing proactive conservation management.