Demographic trade-offs determine species abundance and diversity

Aims Much recent theory has focused on the role of neutral processes in assembling communities, but the basic assumption that all species are demographically identical has found little empirical support. Here, we show that the framework of the current neutral theory can easily be generalized to incorporate species differences so long as fitness equivalence among individuals is maintained through trade-offs between birth and death.Methods Our theory development is based on a careful reformulation of the Moran model of metacommunity dynamics in terms of a non-linear one-step stochastic process, which is described by a master equation.Important findings We demonstrate how fitness equalization through demographic trade-offs can generate significant macroecological diversity patterns, leading to a very different interpretation of the relation between Fisher's α and Hubbell's fundamental biodiversity number. Our model shows that equal fitness (not equal demographics) significantly promotes species diversity through strong selective sieving of community membership against high-mortality species, resulting in a positive association between species abundance and per capita death rate. An important implication of demographic trade-off is that it can partly explain the excessively high speciation rates predicted by the neutral theory of the stronger symmetry. Fitness equalization through demographic trade-offs generalizes neutral theory by considering heterospecific demographic difference, thus representing a significant step toward integrating the neutral and niche paradigms of biodiversity.     

Neutral communities may lead to decreasing diversity-disturbance relationships: insights from a generic simulation model

Many attempts have been made to confirm or reject the unimodal relationship between disturbance and diversity stated by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH). However, the reasons why the predictions of the IDH apply or fail in particular systems are not always obvious. Here, we use a spatially explicit, individual-based community model that simulates species coexistence in a landscape subjected to disturbances to compare diversity-disturbance curves of communities with different coexistence mechanisms: neutrality, trade-off mechanism and intraspecific density dependence. We show that the shape of diversity-disturbance curves differs considerably depending on the type of coexistence mechanism assumed: (1) Neutral communities generally show decreasing diversity-disturbance curves with maximum diversity at zero disturbance rates contradicting the IDH, whereas trade-off communities generally show unimodal relationships confirming the IDH and (2) density-dependent mechanisms do increase the diversity of both neutral and trade-off communities. Finally, we discuss how these mechanisms determine diversity in disturbed landscapes.     

Asymmetry in species regional dispersal ability and the neutral theory

The neutral assumption that individuals of either the same or different species share exactly the same birth, death, migration, and speciation probabilities is fundamental yet controversial to the neutral theory. Several theoretical studies have demonstrated that a slight difference in species per capita birth or death rates can have a profound consequence on species coexistence and community structure. Whether asymmetry in migration, a vital demographic parameter in the neutral model, plays an important role in community assembly still remains unknown. In this paper, we relaxed the ecological equivalence assumption of the neutral model by introducing differences into species regional dispersal ability. We investigated the effect of asymmetric dispersal on the neutral local community structure. We found that per capita asymmetric dispersal among species could reduce species richness of the local community and result in deviations of species abundance distributions from those predicted by the neutral model. But the effect was moderate compared with that of asymmetries in birth or death rates, unless very large asymmetries in dispersal were assumed. A large difference in species dispersal ability, if there is, can overwhelm the role of random drift and make local community dynamics deterministic. In this case, species with higher regional dispersal abilities tended to dominate in the local community. However, the species abundance distribution of the local community under asymmetric dispersal could be well fitted by the neutral model, but the neutral model generally underestimated the fundamental biodiversity number but overestimated the migration rate in such communities.     

A niche for neutrality

Ecologists now recognize that controversy over the relative importance of niches and neutrality cannot be resolved by analyzing species abundance patterns. Here, we use classical coexistence theory to reframe the debate in terms of stabilizing mechanisms (niches) and fitness equivalence (neutrality). The neutral model is a special case where stabilizing mechanisms are absent and species have equivalent fitness. Instead of asking whether niches or neutral processes structure communities, we advocate determining the degree to which observed diversity reflects strong stabilizing mechanisms overcoming large fitness differences or weak stabilization operating on species of similar fitness. To answer this question, we propose combining data on per capita growth rates with models to: (i) quantify the strength of stabilizing processes; (ii) quantify fitness inequality and compare it with stabilization; and (iii) manipulate frequency dependence in growth to test the consequences of stabilization and fitness equivalence for coexistence.     

Diversity emerging: from competitive exclusion to neutral coexistence in ecosystems

In this communication, we present a unifying framework to understand the emergence and maintenance of diversity in ecological systems. We do this by developing a deterministic population model including density-dependent limitation in resources and available space. Our model shows that competitive exclusion and neutral coexistence represent different regimes of the same adaptive dynamics suggesting that neutrality is the general result of an adaptive process in a finite habitat with limited energetic resources. Our model explains the emergence of biodiversity through mutation and its maintenance through neutrality. We show that this framework provides the theoretical foundations to understand the emergence and maintenance of diversity in microbial ecosystems.     

Quantifying the relative importance of niches and neutrality for coexistence in a model microbial system

1.  Ecologists have identified two types of processes promoting species coexistence: stabilizing mechanisms (niche differentiation and related processes) that increase negative intraspecific interactions relative to negative interspecific interactions, and equalizing mechanisms (neutrality) that minimize the differences in species' demographic parameters. It has been theoretically and empirically shown that the two types of mechanisms can operate simultaneously; however, their relative importance remains unstudied although this is a key question in the synthesis of niche and neutral theories.
2.  We experimentally quantified the relative importance of niche and neutral mechanisms in promoting phenotypic diversity in a model microbial system involving different phenotypes of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens . Initially isogenic populations of the bacterium can diversify into a series of major and minor classes of phenotypes that can be treated as analogues of species. We estimated the relative population growth rate when rare of 32 phenotypes from six replicate microcosms. Each phenotype was assessed in a re-assembled microcosm in which the relative densities of all phenotypes remained the same except for the focal one which was reduced in frequency. A growth rate advantage when rare was considered evidence of non-neutral processes.
3.  Approximately one-third of the phenotypes had a growth rate advantage when rare while the remaining two-thirds showed neutral or near-neutral dynamics. Furthermore, there was overall little evidence that productivity increased with phenotypic diversity.
4.  Our results suggest that niche and neutral processes may simultaneously contribute to the maintenance of biodiversity, with the latter playing a more important role in our system, and that the operation of niche mechanisms does not necessarily lead to a positive biodiversity effect on ecosystem properties.     

How specialised must natural enemies be to facilitate coexistence among plants?

The Janzen‐Connell hypothesis proposes that plant interactions with host‐specific antagonists can impair the fitness of locally abundant species and thereby facilitate coexistence. However, insects and pathogens that associate with multiple hosts may mediate exclusion rather than coexistence. We employ a simulation model to examine the effect of enemy host breadth on plant species richness and defence community structure, and to assess expected diversity maintenance in example systems. Only models in which plant enemy similarity declines rapidly with defence similarity support greater species richness than models of neutral drift. In contrast, a wide range of enemy host breadths result in spatial dispersion of defence traits, at both landscape and local scales, indicating that enemy‐mediated competition may increase defence‐trait diversity without enhancing species richness. Nevertheless, insect and pathogen host associations in Panama and Papua New Guinea demonstrate a potential to enhance plant species richness and defence‐trait diversity comparable to strictly specialised enemies.     

Clumped versus scattered: how does the spatial correlation of disturbance events affect biodiversity?

In this study, we systematically explore the effects of rate and spatial correlation (level of clumping) of disturbance events on a community of sessile species differing in their life history traits. A spatially explicit individual-based model shows that long-term coexistence is very sensitive to spatial correlation when the trade-off in life history traits includes differences in dispersal distances. Highest biodiversity emerges at highly correlated disturbances of intermediate rates. Diversity peaks shift to larger rates when clumping decreases. Scattered disturbances lead to competitive exclusion. Interestingly, we observed additional peaks in the diversity–disturbance curves at certain levels of clumping. Thus, subject to the differences in life history traits, particular combinations of disturbance rate and spatial correlation may enable subsets of species to coexist, which opens new possibilities for explaining diversity. Our results suggest that observation of high biodiversity under spatially correlated disturbances points to a competition–colonisation trade-off, which includes dispersal distances.     

Departures from neutrality induced by niche and relative fitness differences

Breaking the core assumption of ecological equivalence in Hubbell’s “neutral theory of biodiversity” requires a theory of species differences. In one framework for characterizing differences between competing species, non-neutral interactions are said to involve both niche differences, which promote stable coexistence, and relative fitness differences, which promote competitive exclusion. We include both in a stochastic community model in order to determine if relative fitness differences compensate for changes in community structure and dynamics induced by niche differences, possibly explaining neutral theory’s apparent success. We show that species abundance distributions are sensitive to both niche and relative fitness differences, but that certain combinations of differences result in abundance distributions that are indistinguishable from the neutral case. In contrast, the distribution of species’ lifetimes, or the time between speciation and extinction, differs under all combinations of niche and relative fitness differences. The results from our model experiment are inconsistent with the hypothesis of “emergent neutrality” and support instead a hypothesis that relative fitness differences counteract effects of niche differences on distributions of abundance. However, an even more developed theory of interspecific variation appears necessary to explain the diversity and structure of non-neutral communities.     

Fusing spatial resource heterogeneity with a competition–colonization trade-off in model communities

Two commonly cited mechanisms of multispecies coexistence in patchy environments are spatial heterogeneity in competitive abilities caused by variation in resources and a competition–colonization trade-off. In this paper, a model that fuses these mechanisms together is presented and analyzed. The model suggests that spatial variation in resource ratios can lead to multispecies coexistence, but this mechanism by itself is weak when the number of resources for which species compete is small. However, spatial resource heterogeneity is a powerful mechanism for multispecies coexistence when it acts synergistically with a competition–colonization trade-off. The model also shows how resource supply can control the competitive balance between species that are weak competitors but superior colonizers and strong competitors/inferior colonizers. This provides additional theoretical support for a possible explanation of empirically observed hump-shaped relationships between species diversity and ecological productivity.     

Community assembly and diversification in Indo-Pacific coral reef fishes

Theories of species coexistence have played a central role in ecology and evolutionary studies of the origin and maintenance of biodiversity in highly diverse communities. The concept of niche and associated theories predict that competition for available ecological space leads to a ceiling in species richness that influences further diversification patterns. By contrast, the neutral theory supports that speciation is stochastic and diversity independent. We examined the phylogenetic community structure and diversification rates in three families and 14 sites within coral reef fish communities from the Indian and Pacific oceans. Using the phylogenetic relationships among 157 species estimated with 2300 bp of mitochondrial DNA, we tested predictions in terms of species coexistence from the neutral and niche theories. At the regional scale, our findings suggest that phylogenetic community structure shifts during community assembly to a pattern of dispersion as a consequence of allopatric speciation in recent times but overall, variations in diversification rates did not relate with sea level changes. At the local scale, the phylogenetic community structure is consistent with a neutral model of community assembly since no departure from a random sorting of species was observed. The present results support a neutral model of community assembly as a consequence of the stochastic and unpredictable nature of coral reefs favoring generalist and sedentary species competing for living space rather than trophic resources. As a consequence, the observed decrease in diversification rates may be seen as the result of a limited supply of living space as expected in a finite island model.     

Niches versus neutrality: uncovering the drivers of diversity in a species-rich community

Ecological models suggest that high diversity can be generated by purely niche-based, purely neutral or by a mixture of niche-based and neutral ecological processes. Here, we compare the degree to which four contrasting hypotheses for coexistence, ranging from niche-based to neutral, explain species richness along a body mass niche axis. We derive predictions from these hypotheses and confront them with species body-mass patterns in a highly sampled marine phytoplankton community. We find that these patterns are consistent only with a mechanism that combines niche and neutral processes, such as the emergent neutrality mechanism. In this work, we provide the first empirical evidence that a niche-neutral model can explain niche space occupancy pattern in a natural species-rich community. We suggest this class of model may be a useful hypothesis for the generation and maintenance of species diversity in other size-structured communities.     

Emergent neutrality drives phytoplankton species coexistence

The mechanisms that drive species coexistence and community dynamics have long puzzled ecologists. Here, we explain species coexistence, size structure and diversity patterns in a phytoplankton community using a combination of four fundamental factors: organism traits, size-based constraints, hydrology and species competition. Using a 'microscopic' Lotka-Volterra competition (MLVC) model (i.e. with explicit recipes to compute its parameters), we provide a mechanistic explanation of species coexistence along a niche axis (i.e. organismic volume). We based our model on empirically measured quantities, minimal ecological assumptions and stochastic processes. In nature, we found aggregated patterns of species biovolume (i.e. clumps) along the volume axis and a peak in species richness. Both patterns were reproduced by the MLVC model. Observed clumps corresponded to niche zones (volumes) where species fitness was highest, or where fitness was equal among competing species. The latter implies the action of equalizing processes, which would suggest emergent neutrality as a plausible mechanism to explain community patterns.     

Coexistence and emergent neutrality generate synchrony among competitors in fluctuating environments

Many competitive communities exhibit a puzzling amount of species diversity. In this study, we model a community of symmetric competitors in a fluctuating environment. We use biologically realistic temperature-dependent growth curves with a widely hypothesized trade-off between maximum growth and nice breadth to control the shapes of the curves of different species. We perform three analyses of the community dynamics to investigate the role of environmental fluctuations in community composition and species diversity. We initiate communities with equal abundances of all species and randomize the temperature fluctuations so that there is no correlation between species responses, only noise. We initiate single populations and allow other species to randomly invade the community. We also knock out extant species one by one from an established community and allow them to reinvade after the remaining species have adjusted. We find that competitors with sufficiently different temperature niches coexist via temporal niche differentiation. We also find long-term persistence of species that are very similar to a dominant competitor. This creates communities with species clumped along a temperature niche axis, with stable coexistence between groups and near neutrality within groups. The near neutrality results in interspecific synchrony within the groups, providing an explanation for the maintenance of high diversity in competitive communities where synchrony is commonly observed.     

Resolving the biodiversity paradox

The paradox of biodiversity involves three elements, (i) mathematical models predict that species must differ in specific ways in order to coexist as stable ecological communities, (ii) such differences are difficult to identify, yet (iii) there is widespread evidence of stability in natural communities. Debate has centred on two views. The first explanation involves tradeoffs along a small number of axes, including 'colonization-competition', resource competition (light, water, nitrogen for plants, including the 'successional niche'), and life history (e.g. high-light growth vs. low-light survival and few large vs. many small seeds). The second view is neutrality, which assumes that species differences do not contribute to dynamics. Clark et al. (2004) presented a third explanation, that coexistence is inherently high dimensional, but still depends on species differences. We demonstrate that neither traditional low-dimensional tradeoffs nor neutrality can resolve the biodiversity paradox, in part by showing that they do not properly interpret stochasticity in statistical and in theoretical models. Unless sample sizes are small, traditional data modelling assures that species will appear different in a few dimensions, but those differences will rarely predict coexistence when parameter estimates are plugged into theoretical models. Contrary to standard interpretations, neutral models do not imply functional equivalence, but rather subsume species differences in stochastic terms. New hierarchical modelling techniques for inference reveal high-dimensional differences among species that can be quantified with random individual and temporal effects (RITES), i.e. process-level variation that results from many causes. We show that this variation is large, and that it stands in for species differences along unobserved dimensions that do contribute to diversity. High dimensional coexistence contrasts with the classical notions of tradeoffs along a few axes, which are often not found in data, and with 'neutral models', which mask, rather than eliminate, tradeoffs in stochastic terms. This mechanism can explain coexistence of species that would not occur with simple, low-dimensional tradeoff scenarios.     

Coexistence of competitors in spatially and temporally varying environments: A look at the combined effects of different sorts of variability

A stochastic model is developed for competition among organisms living in a patchy and varying environment. The model is designed to be suitable for species with sedentary adults and widely dispersing larvae or propagules, and applies best to marine systems but may also be adequate for some terrestrial systems. Three kinds of environmental variation are incorporated simultaneously in the model. These are pure spatial variation, pure temporal variation, and the space × time interaction. All three kinds of variation can promote coexistence, and when variation is restricted to immigration rates, all three kinds act very similarly. Moreover, for long-lived organisms their action is nearly identical, and their effects, when present together, combine equivalently. For short-lived organisms, however, pure temporal variation is a less effective promoter of coexistence. Variation in death rates acts quite differently from variation in birth rates for it may demote coexistence in some circumstances, while promoting coexistence in other circumstances. Furthermore, pure spatial variation in death rates has quite different effects than other kinds of death-rate variation. In addition to conditions for coexistence, information is given on population fluctuations, convergence to stationary distributions, and asymptotic distributions for long-lived organisms. While the model is presented as an ecological model, a genetical interpretation is also possible. This leads to new suggested mechanisms for the maintenance of polymorphisms in populations.     

Fungal infection alters the selection,dispersal and drift processes structuring the amphibian skin microbiome

Symbiotic microbial communities are important for host health, but the processes shaping these communities are poorly understood. Understanding how community assembly processes jointly affect microbial community composition is limited because inflexible community models rely on rejecting dispersal and drift before considering selection. We developed a flexible community assembly model based on neutral theory to ask: How do dispersal, drift and selection concurrently affect the microbiome across environmental gradients? We applied this approach to examine how a fungal pathogen affected the assembly processes structuring the amphibian skin microbiome. We found that the rejection of neutrality for the amphibian microbiome across a fungal gradient was not strictly due to selection processes, but was also a result of species‐specific changes in dispersal and drift. Our modelling framework brings the qualitative recognition that niche and neutral processes jointly structure microbiomes into quantitative focus, allowing for improved predictions of microbial community turnover across environmental gradients.     

The impact of neutrality, niche differentiation and species input on diversity and abundance distributions

We present a spatially-explicit generalization of Hubbell's model of community dynamics in which the assumption of neutrality is relaxed by incorporating dispersal limitation and habitat preference. In simulations, diversity and species abundances were governed by the rate at which new species were introduced (usually called 'speciation') and nearly unaffected by dispersal limitation and habitat preference. Of course, in the absence of species input, diversity is maintained solely by niche differences. We conclude that the success of the neutral model in predicting the abundance distribution has nothing to do with neutrality, but rather with the species-introduction process: when new species enter a community regularly as singletons, the typical J-shaped abundance distribution, with a long tail of rare species, is always observed, whether species differ in habitat preferences or not. We suggest that many communities are indeed driven by the introduction process, accounting for high diversity and rarity, and that species differences may be largely irrelevant for either.     

Large-scale spatial synchrony and the stability of forest biodiversity revisited

Aims Mechanisms contributing to species coexistence have at least one of two modes of action: (i) stabilization of populations through restoring forces and (ii) equalization of fitness across individuals of different species. Recently, ecologists have begun gleaning the relative roles of these by testing the predictions of neutral theory, which predicts the properties of communities under pure fitness equalization. This null hypothesis was rejected for forests of southern Ontario based on large-scale (~100 km) spatial synchrony evident in the fossil pollen record over the entire Holocene, and the argument that a species' relative abundance would instead vary independently at such distances in the absence of stabilizing mechanisms. This test of neutral theory was criticized based on the idea that the synchrony might be produced by dispersal alone. Here, I revisit this test of neutral theory by explicitly calculating the synchrony expected in these forests using a novel simulation method enabling examination of the distribution of a species over large spatial and temporal scales.Methods A novel neutral simulation algorithm tracking only the focal species was used to calculate the neutral expectation for spatial synchrony properties examined empirically by Clark and MacLachlan [(2003) Stability of forest biodiversity. Nature 423 :635–8] using fossil pollen data from eight lake sites. The coefficient of variation (CV) in a species' relative abundance across the eight sites (initiated at about 10% with a small CV) was calculated for 10 runs over a 10?000 year time interval. The CV reflects the level of spatial synchrony in that less synchronous dynamics should lead to more variation across space (a higher equilibrium CV), and in particular, a greater increase in the CV over time from a small initial value. A 'two dimensional t' fat-tailed dispersal kernel was assumed with parameters set to the median derived from seed trap data for deciduous wind-dispersed trees. Robustness of results to assumed dispersal distance, density of trees on the landscape, site sizes, age at maturity and starting spatial distribution were checked.Important findings In contrast to the prediction of Clark and MacLachlan that, in the absence of stabilization, the CV across the sites should increase over time from levels observed at the beginning of the Holocene, under fat-tailed dispersal my neutral model robustly predicted only a brief (50 years) and small increase in the CV. I conclude that purely fitness-equalized species coexistence cannot be rejected based on the observed lack of increase in the CV across the eight sites in southern Ontario over the Holocene. Synchronous variation in environmental factors could alternatively explain the observed synchrony without the need for stabilization. However, neither dispersal nor environmental synchrony seems likely explanations for the quick widespread recovery of Tsuga in the Holocene after its seeming decimation, likely due to a pest outbreak.