Detecting recombination in 4-taxa DNA sequence alignments with Bayesian hidden Markov models and Markov chain Monte Carlo

This article presents a statistical method for detecting recombination in DNA sequence alignments, which is based on combining two probabilistic graphical models: (1) a taxon graph (phylogenetic tree) representing the relationship between the taxa, and (2) a site graph (hidden Markov model) representing interactions between different sites in the DNA sequence alignments. We adopt a Bayesian approach and sample the parameters of the model from the posterior distribution with Markov chain Monte Carlo, using a Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs-within-Gibbs scheme. The proposed method is tested on various synthetic and real-world DNA sequence alignments, and we compare its performance with the established detection methods RECPARS, PLATO, and TOPAL, as well as with two alternative parameter estimation schemes.     

Sequence alignments and pair hidden Markov models using evolutionary history

This work presents a novel pairwise statistical alignment method based on an explicit evolutionary model of insertions and deletions (indels). Indel events of any length are possible according to a geometric distribution. The geometric distribution parameter, the indel rate, and the evolutionary time are all maximum likelihood estimated from the sequences being aligned. Probability calculations are done using a pair hidden Markov model (HMM) with transition probabilities calculated from the indel parameters. Equations for the transition probabilities make the pair HMM closely approximate the specified indel model. The method provides an optimal alignment, its likelihood, the likelihood of all possible alignments, and the reliability of individual alignment regions. Human alpha and beta-hemoglobin sequences are aligned, as an illustration of the potential utility of this pair HMM approach.     

A Bayesian model for detecting past recombination events in DNA multiple alignments.

Most phylogenetic tree estimation methods assume that there is a single set of hierarchical relationships among sequences in a data set for all sites along an alignment. Mosaic sequences produced by past recombination events will violate this assumption and may lead to misleading results from a phylogenetic analysis due to the imposition of a single tree along the entire alignment. Therefore, the detection of past recombination is an important first step in an analysis. A Bayesian model for the changes in topology caused by recombination events is described here. This model relaxes the assumption of one topology for all sites in an alignment and uses the theory of Hidden Markov models to facilitate calculations, the hidden states being the underlying topologies at each site in the data set. Changes in topology along the multiple sequence alignment are estimated by means of the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. The performance of the MAP estimate is assessed by application of the model to data sets of four sequences, both simulated and real.     

Infinite hidden Markov models for multiple multivariate time series with missing data

Exposure to air pollution is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Recent technological advancements permit the collection of time-resolved personal exposure data. Such data are often incomplete with missing observations and exposures below the limit of detection, which limit their use in health effects studies. In this paper, we develop an infinite hidden Markov model for multiple asynchronous multivariate time series with missing data. Our model is designed to include covariates that can inform transitions among hidden states. We implement beam sampling, a combination of slice sampling and dynamic programming, to sample the hidden states, and a Bayesian multiple imputation algorithm to impute missing data. In simulation studies, our model excels in estimating hidden states and state-specific means and imputing observations that are missing at random or below the limit of detection. We validate our imputation approach on data from the Fort Collins Commuter Study. We show that the estimated hidden states improve imputations for data that are missing at random compared to existing approaches. In a case study of the Fort Collins Commuter Study, we describe the inferential gains obtained from our model including improved imputation of missing data and the ability to identify shared patterns in activity and exposure among repeated sampling days for individuals and among distinct individuals.     

Bayesian basecalling for DNA sequence analysis using hidden Markov models

It has been shown that electropherograms of DNA sequences can be modeled with hidden Markov models. Basecalling, the procedure that determines the sequence of bases from the given eletropherogram, can then be performed using the Viterbi algorithm. A training step is required prior to basecalling in order to estimate the HMM parameters. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach which employs the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to perform basecalling. Such an approach not only allows one to naturally encode the prior biological knowledge into the basecalling algorithm, it also exploits both the training data and the basecalling data in estimating the HMM parameters, leading to more accurate estimates. Using the recently sequenced genome of the organism Legionella pneumophila we show that the MCMC basecaller outperforms the state-of-the-art basecalling algorithm in terms of total errors while requiring much less training than other proposed statistical basecallers.     

Applications of hidden Markov models for characterization of homologous DNA sequences with a common gene.

Identifying and characterizing the structure in genome sequences is one of the principal challenges in modern molecular biology, and comparative genomics offers a powerful tool. In this paper, we introduce a hidden Markov model that allows a comparative analysis of multiple sequences related by a phylogenetic tree, and we present an efficient method for estimating the parameters of the model. The model integrates structure prediction methods for one sequence, statistical multiple alignment methods, and phylogenetic information. This unified model is particularly useful for a detailed characterization of DNA sequences with a common gene. We illustrate the model on a variety of homologous sequences.     

Likelihood-ratio tests for hidden Markov models

We consider hidden Markov models as a versatile class of models for weakly dependent random phenomena. The topic of the present paper is likelihood-ratio testing for hidden Markov models, and we show that, under appropriate conditions, the standard asymptotic theory of likelihood-ratio tests is valid. Such tests are crucial in the specification of multivariate Gaussian hidden Markov models, which we use to illustrate the applicability of our general results. Finally, the methodology is illustrated by means of a real data set.     

Combining phylogenetic and hidden Markov models in biosequence analysis.

A few models have appeared in recent years that consider not only the way substitutions occur through evolutionary history at each site of a genome, but also the way the process changes from one site to the next. These models combine phylogenetic models of molecular evolution, which apply to individual sites, and hidden Markov models, which allow for changes from site to site. Besides improving the realism of ordinary phylogenetic models, they are potentially very powerful tools for inference and prediction--for example, for gene finding or prediction of secondary structure. In this paper, we review progress on combined phylogenetic and hidden Markov models and present some extensions to previous work. Our main result is a simple and efficient method for accommodating higher-order states in the HMM, which allows for context-dependent models of substitution--that is, models that consider the effects of neighboring bases on the pattern of substitution. We present experimental results indicating that higher-order states, autocorrelated rates, and multiple functional categories all lead to significant improvements in the fit of a combined phylogenetic and hidden Markov model, with the effect of higher-order states being particularly pronounced.     

MUMMALS: multiple sequence alignment improved by using hidden Markov models with local structural information

We have developed MUMMALS, a program to construct multiple protein sequence alignment using probabilistic consistency. MUMMALS improves alignment quality by using pairwise alignment hidden Markov models (HMMs) with multiple match states that describe local structural information without exploiting explicit structure predictions. Parameters for such models have been estimated from a large library of structure-based alignments. We show that (i) on remote homologs, MUMMALS achieves statistically best accuracy among several leading aligners, such as ProbCons, MAFFT and MUSCLE, albeit the average improvement is small, in the order of several percent; (ii) a large collection (>10000) of automatically computed pairwise structure alignments of divergent protein domains is superior to smaller but carefully curated datasets for estimation of alignment parameters and performance tests; (iii) reference-independent evaluation of alignment quality using sequence alignment-dependent structure superpositions correlates well with reference-dependent evaluation that compares sequence-based alignments to structure-based reference alignments.     

Sensitive protein comparisons with profiles and hidden Markov models

Sequence database searches have become an important tool for the life sciences in general and for gene discovery-driven biotechnology in particular. Both the functional assignment of newly found proteins and the mining of genome databases for functional candidates are equally important tasks typically addressed by database searches. Sensitivity and reliability of the search methods are of crucial importance.The overall performance of sequence alignments and database searches can be enhanced considerably, when profiles or hidden Markov models (HMMs) derived from protein families are used as query objects instead of single sequences.This review discusses the concept of profiles, generalised profiles and profile-HMMs, the methods how they are constructed and the scope of possible applications in gene discovery and gene functional assignment.     

Assessing the goodness-of-fit of hidden Markov models

In this article, we propose a graphical technique for assessing the goodness-of-fit of a stationary hidden Markov model (HMM). We show that plots of the estimated distribution against the empirical distribution detect lack of fit with high probability for large sample sizes. By considering plots of the univariate and multidimensional distributions, we are able to examine the fit of both the assumed marginal distribution and the correlation structure of the observed data. We provide general conditions for the convergence of the empirical distribution to the true distribution, and demonstrate that these conditions hold for a wide variety of time-series models. Thus, our method allows us to compare not only the fit of different HMMs, but also that of other models as well. We illustrate our technique using a multiple sclerosis data set.     

Pair hidden Markov models on tree structures

MOTIVATION: Computationally identifying non-coding RNA regions on the genome has much scope for investigation and is essentially harder than gene-finding problems for protein-coding regions. Since comparative sequence analysis is effective for non-coding RNA detection, efficient computational methods are expected for structural alignments of RNA sequences. On the other hand, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have played important roles for modeling and analysing biological sequences. Especially, the concept of Pair HMMs (PHMMs) have been examined extensively as mathematical models for alignments and gene finding. RESULTS: We propose the pair HMMs on tree structures (PHMMTSs), which is an extension of PHMMs defined on alignments of trees and provides a unifying framework and an automata-theoretic model for alignments of trees, structural alignments and pair stochastic context-free grammars. By structural alignment, we mean a pairwise alignment to align an unfolded RNA sequence into an RNA sequence of known secondary structure. First, we extend the notion of PHMMs defined on alignments of 'linear' sequences to pair stochastic tree automata, called PHMMTSs, defined on alignments of 'trees'. The PHMMTSs provide various types of alignments of trees such as affine-gap alignments of trees and an automata-theoretic model for alignment of trees. Second, based on the observation that a secondary structure of RNA can be represented by a tree, we apply PHMMTSs to the problem of structural alignments of RNAs. We modify PHMMTSs so that it takes as input a pair of a 'linear' sequence and a 'tree' representing a secondary structure of RNA to produce a structural alignment. Further, the PHMMTSs with input of a pair of two linear sequences is mathematically equal to the pair stochastic context-free grammars. We demonstrate some computational experiments to show the effectiveness of our method for structural alignments, and discuss a complexity issue of PHMMTSs.