Effect of climate change on the occurrence of overwintered moths of orchards in South Korea

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global mean surface temperature increased by 0.74°C between 1906 and 2005, and is expected to continue rising. In Korea, the temperature increased rapidly by 1.8°C between 1912 and 2010. The effect of global warming are expected to cause phenological changes in exothermic organisms such as insect pests which are highly dependent on temperature. In present study, we estimated the emergence time of three lepidopteran pests (Carposina sasakii, Grapholita molesta, and Phyllonorycter ringoniella) in apple orchards during 2000, 2020s, 2050s, and 2090s, by means of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. In comparison with 2000, the emergence of C. sasakii is predicted to occur 5.5 ± 0.49 days earlier in 2020s, 14.9 ± 0.40 days earlier in 2050s, and 40.0 ± 0.75 days earlier in 2090s; the emergence of G. molesta is predicted to occur 8.2 ± 0.36 days earlier in 2020s, 16.9 ± 0.40 days earlier in 2050s, and 49.7 ± 0.61 days earlier in 2090s; and the emergence of P. ringoniella is predicted to occur 9.0 ± 0.34 days earlier in 2020s, 20.5 ± 0.58 days earlier in 2050s, and 52.5 ± 0.63 days earlier in 2090s. The number of generations a year is expected to increase by 0.5–2.8 generations in 2050s, 1.3–6.7 in 2090s. Our predictions provide basic data for the development of insect pest management strategies in spring under conditions of global warming.     

Prediction of global geographic distribution of Metcalfa pruinosa using CLIMEX

Globalization has changed the habitats of various species, resulting in harmful pest invasion. Among these pests, Metcalfa pruinosa has caused worldwide economic and hygienic damage in both urban and agricultural/forested areas. It has been reported that prediction of pest distribution is key to the management of pest prevention. Hence, this study aimed to predict the potential geographic distribution of M. pruinosa under the current climate and under a climate change scenario. CLIMEX, modeling software that analyzes the habitat suitability of a target species based on comprehensive climatic and physiological data, was used mainly to establish a map of predictive distribution of M. pruinosa at present and in the future. Based on our simulations, we predict that M. pruinosa will tend to extend its distribution northward in North America and Europe. We conclude that climate change could result in M. pruinosa invasion in a northward direction, suggesting the need for a thorough system of control and prevention.     

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of the harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis, using the CLIMEX model

Harmonia axyridis (Pallas, 1773) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) is a ladybird beetle native to temperate and subtropical parts of Asia. Since 1916 populations of this species have been introduced throughout the world, either deliberately, or by accident through international transport. Harmonia axyridis was originally released as a classical biological control agent of aphid and coccid pests in orchards and forests, but since 1994 it is also available as a commercial product for augmentative control in field and greenhouse crops. It is a very voracious and effective natural enemy of aphids, psyllids and coccids in various agricultural and horticultural habitats and forests. During the past 20 years, however, it has successfully invaded non-target habitats in North America (since 1988), Europe (1999) and South America (2001) respectively in a short period of time, attacking a wide range of non-pest species in different insect orders. Becoming part of the agricultural commercial pathway, it is prone to being introduced into large areas across the world by accident. We use the CLIMEX programme (v2) to predict the potential geographical distribution of H. axyridis by means of matching the climate of its region of origin with other regions in the world and taking in account biological characteristics of the species. Establishment and spread seem likely in many regions across the world, including those areas which H. axyridis has already invaded (temperate Europe, North America). Based on the CLIMEX prediction a large part of Mediterranean Europe, South America, Africa, Australia and New Zealand seem highly suitable for long-term survival of H. axyridis as well. In addition we evaluate CLIMEX as a strategic tool for estimating establishment potential as part of an environmental risk assessment procedure for biological control agents we discuss biological and ecological aspects necessary to fine-tune its establishment and spread in areas after it has been introduced.     

基于最大熵模型预测气候变化下河蚬在中国的潜在分布

河蚬是一类在我国广泛分布的底栖贝类,具有重要的经济价值及生态价值。近年来,河蚬野生资源量锐减,了解河蚬在国内的潜在分布能为河蚬的保护和合理利用提供重要参考。基于河蚬在中国的136个分布点和8个环境因子,采用ENMeval包和biasfile优化后的最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测分别河蚬现代和未来(2041—2060年和2081—2100年) 6个气候情景下的潜在分布。综合Jackknife检验、置换重要值和环境因子贡献率评估影响现代河蚬潜在分布的主要因子,比较未来气候情景下潜在适生区差异从而分析预测河蚬适宜分布的变化。结果表明：(1)优化后的MaxEnt模型预测准确度极高,平均AUC值为0.900±0.037,平均AUC_DIFF值为0.019,现代河蚬潜在分布区域总面积为188.33×10⁴ km²,主要集中在长江流域、海河流域、淮河流域、珠江流域、东南沿海区域以及黄河流域下游和渤海湾沿岸区域。(2)影响河蚬潜在分布的主要环境因子为海拔、温度(年均温和温度年较差)和降水(年降水量)。(3)在未来6种气候情景下,河蚬主要潜...     

Spatial differences in the heavy precipitation risk intensity in South Korea

Damage from climate change has increased gradually and globally; similarly, climate change risk is considered a critical issue in South Korea. Recent trends indicate that heavy precipitation is more likely to increase in terms of frequency and intensity, and it will also be more widely spread than previously recorded. In this study, we investigated the severity of the risk of heavy precipitation in South Korea because of climate change. Climate change risk indices were developed and divided into the “Hazard,” “Vulnerability,” and “Exposure” categories and visualized to present heavy precipitation risk that was identified by hot spot analysis with various spatial characteristics. Using a heavy precipitation risk index, we suggested how risk intensity differs between urban and rural areas. We found that spatial characteristics must be considered when assessing heavy precipitation risk and preparing climate change adaptation strategies. This study will be of use to local and national policy-makers and stakeholders associated with climate change in Korea. The results can further contribute to the study analyzing which factors potentially affect the heavy precipitation risk using various econometric analyses.     

Insect distribution in response to climate change based on a model: Review of function and use of CLIMEX

The significant dependence of agricultural productivity on pest control requires pest distribution predictions at an early stage of pest invasion. Because pest cycles are critically affected by climate, climate is one of the most important factors for predicting an invasive pest. CLIMEX is a highly effective tool that can predict potential geographical species distributions, and test the regional suitability for a target species' habitat based on data including climate change scenarios. CLIMEX has been recently used in Europe, North America, China and Australia, among others. However, for modeling species distributions in Korea, the use of the model has been limited to date. This study aimed to first introduce the function and application of CLIMEX by reviewing important studies using this model. Second, we investigated previous studies using the model simulation to demonstrate the practical applicability of CLIMEX for the agricultural sector, and its use in forecasting.     

基于MaxEnt模型预测白唇鹿的潜在分布区

研究物种分布格局对制定有效保护措施至关重要。本研究从文献记录和实地调查中获取97个分布点, 筛选出7个重要环境变量, 采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型分析了中国青藏高原特有种白唇鹿(Przewalskium albirostris)的潜在分布区域。结果显示: 白唇鹿潜在分布区主要位于青藏高原东部, 适宜生境呈现出以西藏、青海和四川三省交界地带为核心向四周扩散的模式。刀切法(Jackknife)分析表明, 地形、气温季节变化和年降水量是决定白唇鹿分布的重要因素, 人类影响变量贡献相对较小。白唇鹿种群现状尚不清晰, 建议对该物种进行全面深入调查。     

基于最大熵生态位模型的中华穿山甲潜在适宜生境预测

中华穿山甲（Manis pentadactyla）属于全球极度濒危物种,也是我国一级保护动物。对中华穿山甲的非法捕杀曾导致其种群数量锐减。但是,近年来相关研究报道较少,穿山甲分布状况不明,极大地制约了对该物种的有效保护。搜集了近年来国内中华穿山甲的救护记录和救护新闻,甄别出67个记录分布点,利用最大熵模型软件（MaxEnt）进行因子筛选,结果表明最冷季度降水量、人口密度、年降水量、坡度、坡向、海拔等6个环境变量是与中华穿山甲分布显著相关的影响因子。基于6个主导环境变量构建的MaxEnt模型AUC平均值为0.961±0.014,预测结果达到极好标准。刀切法（Jackknife）表明,其中最冷季度降水量、年降水量、人口密度和海拔是影响中华穿山甲分布的主要因素。中华穿山甲适宜生境（出现概率大于0.498）具有以下特点：最冷季度降水量141.22-439.46 mm,年降水量1471.67-2386.56 mm,人口密度≥390人/km²,海拔<316.98 m。该模型预测中华穿山甲在我国的潜在分布适宜区主要位于我国长江以南地区,总面积约为74.27×10⁴ km²,占国土面积的7.73%,主要集中在江西、广东、湖南和广西省,面积分别占该区域的97.58%,89.65%,76.90%和73.08%;其次是浙江、福建、台湾和安徽省。湖北、江苏、四川、云南、贵州等省份也有中华穿山甲的零星分布。湖北东南部、江苏南部、浙江西南部和福建西北部等与江西接壤的区域也是中华穿山甲的重要潜在分布适宜区。明确中华穿山甲的潜在分布适宜区,可为该物种的种群保护和栖息地管理提供科技支撑。     

Predicting potential current distribution of Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) using MaxEnt model in South Korea

Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) is an invasive insect in Korea which causes plant damages by sucking and sooty molds. Lycorma delicatula was first detected in South Korea in 2004, where its introduction and spreading possibly were affected by human activity-related factors. Here, we used MaxEnt to describe current distribution of L. delicatula in Korea and tried to find out the impact of human influences on distribution. We used 143 sites of occurrence data, 19 bioclimatic variables, duration of temperature below −11 °C, average daily minimum temperature in January, cumulative thermal unit variable, the distribution of grape orchard variable and human footprint to create models. These models were estimated by two sets of 24 candidates with feature combinations and regularization multipliers. In addition, these two sets were created as models with and without footprint to assess human influence on distribution. Model selection for optimal model was performed by selecting a model with a lowest sum of each rank in small sample-size corrected Akaike’s information criterion and difference between training and test AUC. Model of LQ10 parameter combinations was selected as optimal models for both model sets. Consequently, both of distribution maps from these models showed similar patterns of presence probability for L. delicatula. Both models expected that low altitude regions were relatively more suitable for L. delicatula than mountain areas in Korea. Footprint might be limited for the distribution and L. delicatula might already occupy most of available habitats. Human-related factors might contribute to spread of L. delicatula to uninfected areas.     

基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下杉木在中国的潜在地理分布

为研究杉木在中国的分布特征及其对气候变化的响应模式,本研究基于现有分布记录,应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和地理信息系统方法,结合气候、地形等环境要素,预测杉木在当前和未来气候变化下的潜在适生区。结果表明: 影响杉木分布的最主要因素是年平均降水量,在当前气候下,杉木适生区合计面积328万km²,占全国陆地总面积的34.5%,低、中和高适生区分别占18.3%、29.7%与52.0%。在未来气候情景下,杉木生长的适宜性在我国总体上呈上升趋势,适生区面积随气候变化增大,且明显向北扩张,南方湿润亚热带地区形成集中连片高适生区。模型经受试者工作特征曲线检验,训练集平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.91,可信度高。     

Detecting latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of invasive bamboo Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides (Poaceae) in Japan to project potential habitats under 1.5°C–4.0°C global warming

Rapid expansion of exotic bamboos has lowered species diversity in Japan's ecosystems by hampering native plant growth. The invasive potential of bamboo, facilitated by global warming, may also affect other countries with developing bamboo industries. We examined past (1975–1980) and recent (2012) distributions of major exotic bamboos (Phyllostachys edulis and P. bambusoides) in areas adjacent to 145 weather stations in central and northern Japan. Bamboo stands have been established at 17 sites along the latitudinal and altitudinal distributional limit during the last three decades. Ecological niche modeling indicated that temperature had a strong influence on bamboo distribution. Using mean annual temperature and sun radiation data, we reproduced bamboo distribution (accuracy = 0.93 and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) = 0.92). These results infer that exotic bamboo distribution has shifted northward and upslope, in association with recent climate warming. Then, we simulated future climate data and projected the climate change impact on the potential habitat distribution of invasive bamboos under different temperature increases (i.e., 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C) relative to the preindustrial period. Potential habitats in central and northern Japan were estimated to increase from 35% under the current climate (1980–2000) to 46%–48%, 51%–54%, 61%–67%, and 77%–83% under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C warming levels, respectively. These infer that the risk areas can increase by 1.3 times even under a 1.5°C scenario and expand by 2.3 times under a 4.0°C scenario. For sustainable ecosystem management, both mitigation and adaptation are necessary: bamboo planting must be carefully monitored in predicted potential habitats, which covers most of Japan.     

Risk map for the range expansion of Thrips palmi in Korea under climate change: Combining species distribution models with land-use change

Climate change and land-use change are the most powerful drivers for the invasion of alien species. To understand the integrated effects of these two drivers on pest invasion risk in the future, this study assessed how they impact the invasion risk of Thrips palmi Karny, which is the most serious invasive species in the Korean peninsula. The potential distribution of T. palmi was projected with a MaxEnt model for current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) based on occurrence records. The potential distribution extends to the north over time, except the eastern high mountainous area, for both RCPs in 2075. The MaxEnt outputs were filtered with agricultural area using data from three land-use change scenarios derived from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), because T. palmi populations can only be sustained in agricultural areas. The potential risk of T. palmi, based on the potential distribution probability in the future agricultural area, increased over time under all RCPs-SSPs combinations. The total area of T. palmi occurrence increased under RCPs-SSP1 and -SSP2 but decreased under RCPs-SSP3, due to agricultural areas being converted to urban areas. In conclusion, based on future climate change scenarios, T. palmi could be distributed throughout the Korean peninsula in the future. The invasion risk in agricultural areas will increase substantially; thus, intensive control measures for T. palmi are required in the future. Our research suggests that using both climate change and land-use change in pest risk mapping study can provide informative data for management strategy.     

Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the common cutworm (Spodoptera litura) in South Korea

Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), known as common cutworm, is a worldwide pest that causes severe damage to various crops and vegetables in South Korea. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of S. litura in South Korea in a climate change scenario by applying species distribution modeling. We used the CLIMEX software as a main tool and determined optimal parameter values to simulate the current distribution of S. litura in Asia. We then used these parameter values to predict the species' future distribution in South Korea. As a result, we prepared maps indicating areas with suitable climate for S. litura and showed that these areas gradually increased as a result of climate change. Approximately 98% of the areas in South Korea were predicted to have a favorable climate for S. litura in 2100; 63.2% of the area in South Korea is currently favorable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to predict the potential distribution of S. litura in South Korea, and it provides the basic data necessary to establish an optimal control strategy of this species.     

Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios

AimInvasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of A. adenophora remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of Ageratina adenophora.LocationGlobal.TaxaAsteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed.MethodsBased on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the “ecospat” package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes.ResultsThe area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for A. adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of A. adenophora under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m).Main conclusionsMean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of A. Adenophora. Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of A. adenophora will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of A. adenophora would expand at higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.     

不同气候条件下沙冬青属植物在我国的潜在分布——基于生态位模型预测

沙冬青属（Ammopiptanthus）植物是古地中海第三纪孑遗濒危物种,包括沙冬青（Ammopiptanthus mgolicus）和矮沙冬青（Ammopiptanthus nanus）,主要分布在我国西北干旱、半干旱地区,其不仅具有较高的研究价值,同时对我国西北干旱地区生态环境具有十分重要的作用。近年来由于全球气候变化及人为干扰等因素,沙冬青属植物天然分布面积骤缩,濒临灭绝。本研究利用MaxEnt模型、Bioclim模型和Domain模型对沙冬青属植物在我国末次间冰期（Last Interglacial）、末次冰盛期（Last Glacial Maximum）、当代和2050年（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）4个时期气候情景下的潜在适生区进行预测。结果表明：MaxEnt模型对沙冬青属植物潜在分布区的预测具有极高的准确度,所有模型的平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC测试值）均高于0.80。当代沙冬青最佳及高适生区占全国总面积的2.78%,主要集中在内蒙古中部、宁夏北部和甘肃北部等地;未来沙冬青最佳及高适生区在现有分布范围呈现向外扩张的趋势,主要分布在内蒙古鄂托克旗、鄂尔多斯、阿拉善左旗、宁夏吴忠和甘肃民勒县等地。当代矮沙冬青最佳及高适生区占全国总面积的2.23%,主要集中在新疆南部;未来矮沙冬青最佳及高适生区向新疆乌恰县南部、乌鲁木齐北部移动和扩大,主要分布在新疆乌恰县、乌苏市、吐鲁番市和乌鲁木齐市。未来2050年（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）两种气候情景下沙冬青和矮沙冬青的潜在分布总面积均有所增加,与当代相比变化不明显,但不同适生等级的潜在分布面积变化较大,在更高的CO₂排放量（RCP8.5）情景下沙冬青和矮冬青的最佳及高适生区范围的预测结果都将减少。从气候因素角度考虑,研究表明未来气候情景下沙冬青属植物的适生区变化过程中,年均温（Bio1）、最湿月降水量（Bio13）和温度季节性变化（Bio4）是影响沙冬青属植物分布的关键因子,并为我国西北干旱半干旱地区具有重要的经济价值并将持续其生态服务功能。     

CLIMEX simulated predictions of the potential distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) considering the northern boundary: With special emphasis on Jeju,Korea

The global climate change has led to the distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis from its origin in Southeast Asia to mainland China, which is situated at latitudes similar to Jeju Island, South Korea. In order to evaluate the establishment of B. dorsalis in Korea, it is necessary to determine the climate suitability. When the parameters of CLIMEX model were adjusted to include Wuhan region in China as the northern limit, the model outputs explained well the distribution and occurrence characteristics (namely the annual number of generations) of B. dorsalis in major distribution regions in the world. In IPCC/RCP 8.5 scenario, the establishment of B. dorsalis was suitable to a small part of Jeju Island in the 2010s. The range might gradually spread until the 2090s, with many parts of the lowlands of Jeju Island being marginal to optimal in suitability. The present CLIMEX model with parameters that adjusted to known northern limit will be useful for annual risk mapping to facilitate a monitoring system for early detection of a possible founder population of B. dorsalis in Jeju, South Korea.     

基于GARP的三种芒果象甲在中国的适生性分析

芒果象甲Sternochetus Pierce昆虫是芒果的重要害虫,明确其可能适牛的区域对该虫的科学监测及防治意义重大.本文利用芒果象甲属中主要3种:印度果核芒果象S.mangiferae Fabricius、果核芒果象S.olivieri Faust、果肉芒果象S.frigidus Fabrieius的已知分布点数据和亚洲地区的14个环境地理变量图层,运用GARP生态位模型结合GIS空间分析模块预测了该虫在中国的潜在地理分布,结果表明芒果象甲具有较强的扩散蔓延趋势,对我国的芒果产业构成较大的潜在威胁.     

基于CLIMEX预测黑角负泥虫在中国的潜在地理分布

【目的】研究黑角负泥虫在我国的潜在地理分布及其入侵风险程度。【方法】运用适生性分析软件CLIMEX 4. 0对黑角负泥虫在我国的潜在地理分布进行模拟,将模拟结果在地理信息系统软件Arc GIS10.2下进行插值分析,并绘制黑角负泥虫的潜在地理分布示意图。【结果】黑角负泥虫高度适生区主要集中在我国的华北平原、黄土高原南部及云贵高原北部;中度适生区主要集中在华北平原北部、黄土高原北部及东北平原地区;低度适生区则多分布在中高度适生区的过渡区域及我国新疆天山南北两侧地区。限制黑角负泥虫在我国分布的主要胁迫因素为干胁迫和冷胁迫,且其影响的区域主要分布在我国的西北和东北地区。【结论】黑角负泥虫在我国潜在地理分布范围广,适生程度高。目前,黑角负泥虫已经传播到我国的新疆和内蒙古等省(自治区),但由于地理隔离的存在和自身较弱的扩散条件,并没有传入气候适宜度较高的东部地区。随着东西部经济交流的不断增多,黑角负泥虫随人为因素进一步扩散的可能性将不断增加。因此,建议检疫部门做好检疫工作,严防黑角负泥虫的传播扩散。     

基于物种分布模型评价土壤因子对我国毛竹潜在分布的影响

基于单类别支持向量机方法的物种分布模型, 利用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)气候情景模式和联合国粮食与农业组织(FAO)的全球土壤数据, 模拟1981-2099年我国毛竹(Phyllostachys edulis)的潜在空间分布及变化趋势, 比较考虑土壤因子前后模拟结果的差异, 旨在探究土壤因子对毛竹潜在空间分布模拟结果的影响。结果表明, 仅以气候因子为模拟变量和同时考虑气候与土壤因子为模拟变量的毛竹潜在空间分布模拟均具有较高精度, 毛竹潜在分布区表现为面积增加并向北扩张。模拟因子重要性分析表明表征温暖程度的气候因子在毛竹潜在分布模拟中起主导作用, 而表征土壤质地和酸碱性的土壤因子以限制性作用为主。同时考虑气候与土壤因子的模拟结果具有较高的模拟效率, 且在未来气候变化情景模式下毛竹潜在分布区面积增幅与向北迁移幅度均小于仅使用气候因子的模拟, 表明土壤要素对毛竹潜在分布具有明显的限制作用, 该结果对现在的毛竹潜在分布模拟研究具有重要的补充作用。