Changes in the genetic level and the effects of age at first calving and milk production on survival during the first lactation over the last 25 years

Survival during the first year after first calving was investigated over the last 25 years, 1989–2013, as well as how the association of survival with season of calving, age at first calving (AFC) and within-herd production level has changed over that period. The data set contained 1 108 745 Dutch black-and-white cows in 2185 herds. Linear models were used to estimate (1) effect of year and season and their interaction and (2) effect of AFC, within-herd production level, and 5-year intervals and their two-way interactions, and the genetic trend. All models contained AFC and percentage of Holstein Friesian as a fixed effect, and herd-year-season, sire and maternal grandsire as random effects. Survival and functional survival were analysed. Functional survival was defined as survival adjusted for within-herd production level. Survival rate increased by 8% up to 92% in the last 25 years. When accounting for pedigree, survival showed no improvement up to 1999, but improved since then. Genetically, survival increased 3% to 4% but functional survival did not increase over the 25 years. We found an interesting difference between the genetic trends for survival and functional survival for bulls born between 1985 and 1999, where the trend for survival was still increasing, but was negative for functional survival. Since 1999, genetic trend picked up again for both survival and functional survival. AFC, season of calving and within-herd production level affected survival. Survival rate decreased 0.6%/month for survival and 1.5% for functional survival between AFC of 24 and 32 months. Calving in summer resulted in 2.0% higher survival than calving in winter. Within herd, low-producing cows had a lower survival rate than high-producing cows. However, these effects became less important during the recent years. Based on survival optimum AFC is around 24 months, but based on functional survival it is better to have an AFC<24 months. Overall, survival rate of heifers has improved considerably in the past 25 years, initially due to the focus on a high milk production. More recently, the importance of a high milk production has been reduced towards attention for functional survival.     

Interactions between infant growth and survival: Evidence for selection on age-specific body weight in captive common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus)

The objective of this study is to investigate factors influencing infant survival in captive common marmosets. We investigated the influence of age-specific weight, litter size, caging, and the presence of helpers on survival to 6 months of age in 189 Callithrix jacchus infants. Infant survival was analyzed using Cox Proportional Hazards regression, and fitness functions were plotted to explore the relationship between survival and growth. Results indicate that weights at birth and 120 days significantly affect future survival probability. Litter size significantly influences survival prior to 60 days of age with larger litters having poorer survival. Males and females did not have significantly different survival and the presence of helpers in the group did not influence survival probability. Patterns of survival with respect to age-specific weights suggest stabilizing selection on birth weight and directional selection on weight at 120 days of age. Am. J. Primatol. 42:269–280, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Correlates of survival in Swainson's hawks breeding in northern California

We used a 30-year study of breeding Swainson's hawks (Buteo swainsoni) in northern California to examine correlates of adult apparent survival using multistate models in Program MARK. Specifically, we examined age-related patterns in adult apparent survival and how adult survival was correlated with average annual nest productivity, annual reproductive output, western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) density around nest sites, distance to agriculture, and amount of agriculture within a territory. Annual estimates of adult survival varied from 0.85 to 0.9 (SE = 0.02). There were no indications of senescence or other patterns of age-related changes in adult apparent survival. Adult survival was inversely correlated with average reproductive output, with individuals producing >2 offspring having decreased survival, reflecting a possible trade-off between reproduction and survival. Conversely, reproduction in any year was positively correlated with survival, providing evidence of individual quality influencing adult survival. The distance an individual had to travel to agriculture, where most individuals forage, was negatively related to survival. Primary productivity within the average Swainson's hawk territory was positively correlated with adult survival. Our results indicate that individuals may have higher survival and fitness in areas with high proportions of irrigated agriculture that provides high prey densities, particularly alfalfa. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Trends in annual and seasonal survival of Pink-footed Geese Anser brachyrhynchus

Adult Pink-footed Geese Anser brachyrhynchus from the Svalbard breeding population were neck-banded and resighted in staging and wintering areas outside the breeding season 1990–1999. We estimated annual and seasonal survival using capture–recapture statistical models. Mean annual survival was 0.829, declining over the study period from 0.90 to 0.79. The annual cycle was partitioned into three periods: summer (1 April–30 September), including both spring and autumn migration, autumn (1 October–31 December), including most shooting, and winter (1 January–31 March). The parsimonious model selected to describe seasonal survival included a declining trend in summer survival, constant autumn and winter survival with lower survival in the severe winter of 1996, and an additive effect of sex on summer and winter survival. Monthly survival was highest during winter. Decreasing summer survival was the main contributor to the overall decline in annual survival, and was attributed mainly to increasing natural mortality on the breeding grounds. Mean annual survival based on the seasonal survival probabilities was 0.835 for females and 0.805 for males. The effect of sex was most pronounced during summer and remains to be explained.     

Separating Components of Variation in Survival of Mule Deer in Colorado

ABSTRACT Survival is an important parameter for understanding population dynamics of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and other large herbivores. To understand long-term dynamics it is important to separate sampling and biological process variation in survival. Moreover, knowledge of correlations in survival across space and between young and adults can provide more informed predictions of survival in unsampled areas. We estimated survival of fawn, yearling, and adult mule deer from 4 spatially separated regions of Colorado, USA, from 1997 to 2008. We also estimated process variance in survival across time for each age and site using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Finally, we estimated correlations in survival among sites and ages with MCMC methods. Average winter fawn survival was 0.721 (SD = 0.024) for the 4 regions. Average winter adult female survival was 0.935 (SD = 0.007). Annual adult female survival ranged from 0.803 (SD = 0.017) to 0.900 (SD = 0.028) for the 4 regions, excluding hunting mortality. The correlation between fawn and adult female survival was high, 0.563 (SD = 0.253). Correlations in winter fawn survival were higher between populations at the same latitude than they were for populations to the north and south. We used survival estimates from our analysis to inform prior distributions for a Bayesian population dynamics model from one population in Colorado and compared that model to one with noninformative prior distributions. Population models including informative prior distributions based on our results performed better than those noninformative prior distributions on survival, providing more biologically defensible results when data were sparse. Knowledge of process distributions of survival can help wildlife managers better predict future population status and understand the likely range of survival rates.     

Patterns of spatio-temporal variation in the survival rates of a viviparous lizard: the interacting effects of sex,reproductive trade-offs,aridity, and human-induced disturbance

Examination of the spatial and temporal variation in survival rates provides insight on how the action of natural selection varies among populations of single species. In this study, we used mark-recapture data from seven populations of the viviparous lizard Sceloporus grammicus in Central Mexico and a multi-model inference framework to examine interpopulation variation in the survival of adult males and females. We aimed to analyze the potential effects of aridity, human-induced disturbance, and reproductive costs on the survival rates of these lizards. For females in particular, we also searched for a negative relationship between litter size (adjusted for female size) and female survival. Our results demonstrate seasonal changes in survival for males and females. In three out of our seven study sites female survival decreased during the birthing season. In contrast, male survival did not appear to decrease during the mating season. We found an interaction between site-specific aridity and reproductive season affecting female survival. A decrease in female survival during the birthing season was observed in relatively arid sites. In one of these arid sites we found a negative effect of size-adjusted litter size on female survival: females producing more offspring than those expected for their size were more likely to die. This result represents evidence of a physiological trade-off for gravid females occurring in at least one of the studied populations. Interpopulation variation in the degree of human-induced disturbance could not explain the observed patterns of spatial variation in survival rates. Our results demonstrate wide variation in sex-specific survival patterns of this viviparous lizard and provide evidence that negative associations between reproduction and survival are highly dependent on the local environmental conditions.     

Heterosis for neonatal survival in the guppy

Neonatal survival rate ranged from 91.8 to 100.0% in 12 populations of the guppy Poecilia reticulata , and was higher in naturalized Japanese stream populations than in domestic strains. Mean heterozygosity at five allozyme and four microsatellite loci varied between 0.112 and 0.430 and was significantly correlated with neonatal survival rate among populations, suggest ing that inbreeding decreases neonatal survival. Diallel and reciprocal crosses among four domestic strains demonstrated heterosis for neonatal survival. These results indicate that neonatal survival is genetically affected by heterosis and its antithesis, inbreeding depression. The relationship between neonatal survival and the mean heterozygosity suggests that overall heterozygosity is important for neonatal survival of the guppy.     

The survival rate of Lanyu Scops Owls Otus elegans botelensis

Few species of owls have been well studied in the wild and estimates of survival rates are available only for a few species in the temperate region. This paper reports the adult annual and monthly survival estimates of the Lanyu Scops Owl Otus elegans botelensis , a subtropical Asian species, based on a 13-year study of a colour-marked population. The estimated seasonal survival pattern was relatively stable, with an indication of lower survival during May-June, the time of egg-laying and chick-rearing. Female survival in this species was consistently higher than male survival by an estimated 7%, which may have resulted from differential costs in reproduction. Annual survival rates during 1986-96 showed no significant differences between years. Based on a model with constant survival and annual variation in recapture rate, average annual survival for all birds was estimated as 75%, which is higher than expected given the small body weight of the Lanyu Scops Owl. This survival and the stable monthly survival pattern are discussed in light of the mild subtropical conditions of Lanyu Island.     

Differential survival in adult Eurasian oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus

I explored the fitness implications of individual and sex differences in foraging strategy in the Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus by monitoring the survival of individually colour-ringed birds of known sex and known feeding specialisation. Over the period of this study, adult female annual and overwinter survival was significantly lower than adult male survival. However, contrary to previous findings, no differences in survival were found between birds of different feeding specialisations. Lower female survival was not due to sex differences in feeding specialisation. Possible mechanisms for sex differences in survival and the survival implications of different feeding specialisations are discussed. I conclude that sex differences in survival may be due to differences in social status. I also suggest that worm/clam feeders and mussel-stabbers, feeding specialisations previously associated with lower survival rates, may have benefited more than mussel-hammerers from milder winter temperatures in recent years.     

Comparing treatments in the presence of crossing survival curves: an application to bone marrow transplantation

Summary .   In some clinical studies comparing treatments in terms of their survival curves, researchers may anticipate that the survival curves will cross at some point, leading to interest in a long-term survival comparison. However, simple comparison of the survival curves at a fixed point may be inefficient, and use of a weighted log-rank test may be overly sensitive to early differences in survival. We formulate the problem as one of testing for differences in survival curves after a prespecified time point, and propose a variety of techniques for testing this hypothesis. We study these methods using simulation and illustrate them on a study comparing survival for autologous and allogeneic bone marrow transplants.     

Soil moisture and fungi affect seed survival in California grassland annual plants

Survival of seeds in the seed bank is important for the population dynamics of many plant species, yet the environmental factors that control seed survival at a landscape level remain poorly understood. These factors may include soil moisture, vegetation cover, soil type, and soil pathogens. Because many soil fungi respond to moisture and host species, fungi may mediate environmental drivers of seed survival. Here, I measure patterns of seed survival in California annual grassland plants across 15 species in three experiments. First, I surveyed seed survival for eight species at 18 grasslands and coastal sage scrub sites ranging across coastal and inland Santa Barbara County, California. Species differed in seed survival, and soil moisture and geographic location had the strongest influence on survival. Grasslands had higher survival than coastal sage scrub sites for some species. Second, I used a fungicide addition and exotic grass thatch removal experiment in the field to tease apart the relative impact of fungi, thatch, and their interaction in an invaded grassland. Seed survival was lower in the winter (wet season) than in the summer (dry season), but fungicide improved winter survival. Seed survival varied between species but did not depend on thatch. Third, I manipulated water and fungicide in the laboratory to directly examine the relationship between water, fungi, and survival. Seed survival declined from dry to single watered to continuously watered treatments. Fungicide slightly improved seed survival when seeds were watered once but not continually. Together, these experiments demonstrate an important role of soil moisture, potentially mediated by fungal pathogens, in driving seed survival.     

Long-term trends in survival of a declining population: the case of the little owl (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Athene noctua</Emphasis>) in the Netherlands

The little owl (Athene noctua) has declined significantly in many parts of Europe, including the Netherlands. To understand the demographic mechanisms underlying their decline, we analysed all available Dutch little owl ringing data. The data set spanned 35 years, and included more than 24,000 ringed owls, allowing detailed estimation of survival rates through multi-state capture–recapture modelling taking dispersal into account. We investigated geographical and temporal variation in age-specific survival rates and linked annual survival estimates to population growth rate in corresponding years, as well as to environmental covariates. The best model for estimating survival assumed time effects on both juvenile and adult survival rates, with average annual survival estimated at 0.258 (SE = 0.047) and 0.753 (SE = 0.019), respectively. Juvenile survival rates decreased with time whereas adult survival rates fluctuated regularly among years, low survival occurring about every 4 years. Years when the population declined were associated with low juvenile survival. More than 60% of the variation in juvenile survival was explained by the increase in road traffic intensity or in average temperature in spring, but these correlations rather reflect a gradual decrease in juvenile survival coinciding with long-term global change than direct causal effects. Surprisingly, vole dynamics did not explain the cyclic dynamics of adult survival rate. Instead, dry and cold years led to low adult survival rates. Low juvenile survival rates, that limit recruitment of first-year breeders, and the regular occurrence of years with poor adult survival, were the most important determinants of the population decline of the little owl.     

Survival of freeze-dried bacteria.

The aim of this study was to investigate the survival of freeze-dried bacterial species stored at the International Patent Organism Depository (IPOD) and to elucidate the characteristics affecting survival. Bacterial strains were freeze-dried, sealed in ampoules under a vacuum (<1 Pa), and stored in the dark at 5 degrees C. The survival of a variety of species following storage for up to 20 years was analyzed. The survival of freeze-dried species was analyzed in terms of two stages, freeze-drying and storing. Nonmotile genera showed relatively high survival after freeze-drying. Motile genera with peritrichous flagella showed low survival rates after freeze-drying. Vibrio and Aeromonas, which produce numerous flagella, showed very low survival rates. In Lactobacillus, non-trehalose-fermenting species showed better survival rates after freeze-drying than did fermenting species, and those species with teichoic acid in the cell wall showed lower survival rates during storage than species with teichoic acid in the cell membrane. Human pathogenic species of Corynebacterium, Bacillus, Streptococcus, and Klebsiella showed lower survival rates during storage than nonpathogenic species within the same genus. Among Pseudomonas species, P. chlororaphis, the only species tested that forms levan from sucrose, showed the lowest survival rate during storage in the genus. Survival rates of Gram-negative species during storage tended to be lower than those of Gram-positive species, though Chryseobacterium meningosepticum had stable survival during storage. The conclusion is that smooth cell surfaces (i.e., no flagella) and lack of trehalose outside the cytoplasm improved survival rates after freeze-drying. Because desiccation is important for survival during storage, the presence of extracellular polysaccharides or teichoic acids is disadvantageous for long-term survival. The lower survival rates of freeze-dried Gram-negative bacteria compared with those of Gram-positive bacteria may be attributed to the thinner peptidoglycan layer and the presence of lipopolysaccharides on the cell wall in the former species.     

First-year survival of brown trout in three Norwegian streams

Monthly survival rates during the first year of life were estimated for the 1999 cohort of stream-resident brown trout Salmo trutta in three Norwegian streams, using capture-mark-recapture methods and the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model. It was hypothesized that reduced survival would occur during the winter. For one of the study populations, the data did support seasonal variation in survival, with monthly survival rates being lower during winter than during summer (0·65 v . 0·99). For the remaining two populations, there was no evidence for seasonal variations in monthly survival rates, but monthly survival rates were significantly different (0·87 v . 0·99). No evidence was found for size-dependent winter survival. Some marked individuals emigrated from the study sites, suggesting that survival rates were underestimated and that different survival rates among populations were partly due to different emigration rates. Net immigration of brown trout was evident at all three study sites.     

Grandmothering in Cambridgeshire, 1770–1861

The effects of grandparent survival on child survival and mean interbirth interval, both independent of and relative to parent survival, were investigated in a historical population. Families for the data set were reconstituted from the parish and census records of Cambridgeshire, 1770–1861. In a logistic regression analysis, only the mother’s and the maternal grandmother’s survival were found to be significant predictors of child survival. Maternal grandmother’s survival was found to influence child survival both via maternal survival and independent of maternal survival. Grandparent survival was not found to influence mean interbirth interval. These findings are reviewed with respect to other studies of grandmothering, the Grandmother Hypothesis, and the evolutionary significance of human female postreproductive lifespan. Gillian Ragsdale is a postgraduate student at the Leverhulme Centre for Human Evolution Studies (LCHES), Cambridge University, UK, currently investigating the evolution of human social cognition. She was originally a molecular geneticist, and subsisted through the intervening years in educational publishing.     

Survival curves for microbial species stored by freeze-drying

The survival of a variety of species of microorganism following storage for up to 20 years has been analyzed. The organisms were freeze-dried, sealed in ampoules under vacuum (<1 Pa) and stored in the dark at 5 degrees C. The yeast that was tested, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, showed only 8% survival when recovered shortly after freeze-drying, but subsequent loss during storage was the least among all the tested microorganisms. The decrease in the logarithm of survival per year (log survival) was -0.010, which corresponds to a survival rate of 97.7% per year. The Gram-negative bacteria tested, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas putida, and Enterobacter cloacae, showed 42.6, 33.5, and 50.8% survival shortly after freeze-drying, which was higher than the corresponding survival of S. cerevisiae, but the subsequent loss during storage was greater than S. cerevisiae, the log survival figures being -0.041, -0.058, and -0.073 per year. These values correspond to survival rates of 91.0, 87.5, and 84.5% each year. The Gram-positive bacteria tested, Lactobacillus acidophilus and Enteroccoccus faecium, showed 62.5 and 85.2% survival shortly after freeze-drying, which was even higher than that of the Gram-negative species, and these organisms also showed better survival during storage than Gram-negative bacteria; their log survival rates were -0.018 and -0.016 per year, which corresponded to survival rates of almost 96% per year. Comparison of these results with other published data for different drying conditions suggests that survival during storage is strongly influenced by the degree of vacuum under which the ampoules were sealed. The excellent survival after freeze-drying of each species might be attributable to the high level of desiccation and to sealing under vacuum.     

陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区坡沟立地环境下幼苗的存活特征

幼苗是植被恢复演替的基础, 在生态系统中具有非常重要的作用。为了探索黄土丘陵沟壑区坡沟立地环境下幼苗的存活特征, 在陕西省安塞县宋家沟和纸坊沟流域设置15个固定样地进行定点动态监测, 运用单因素方差分析法和系统聚类分析法对不同立地环境下的幼苗密度和幼苗存活率进行了分析。结果表明: 1)不同坡沟立地环境下, 幼苗存活特征差异明显, 整体表现为阳坡幼苗密度较小而存活率较高, 阴坡幼苗密度较大但存活率较低。2)细裂叶莲蒿(Artemisia gmelinii)、菊叶委陵菜(Potentilla tanacetifolia)、阿尔泰狗娃花(Heteropappus altaicus)等物种具有较高的幼苗存活率, 在生存竞争中幼苗是以“质”取胜; 而猪毛蒿(Artemisia scoparia)、中华苦荬菜(Ixeris chinensis)、阴行草(Siphonostegia chinensis)等物种具有较高的幼苗密度, 在生存竞争中是以“量”取胜。3)同一物种在坡沟立地环境下表现出不同的存活曲线, 不同物种在不同立地环境下也可呈现同一存活曲线; 细裂叶莲蒿、菊叶委陵菜、长芒草(Stipa bungeana)、阿尔泰狗娃花、兴安胡枝子(Lespedeza davurica)等物种, 幼苗不仅在雨季存活能力强且具有较强的越冬能力; 猪毛蒿、香青兰(Dracocephalum moldavica)、臭蒿(Artemisia hedinii)等物种在雨季前幼苗存活能力较强, 但冬季存活能力弱。4)坡面不同微环境下幼苗存活特征也存在差异, 即微环境的改变在一定程度上影响着幼苗的生长、存活和越冬。因此, 在黄土丘陵沟壑区应根据物种幼苗存活特性对幼苗进行适当的抚育管理, 这将有利于幼苗的建植和植被更新。     

Trends in age-standardised net survival of stomach cancer by subsite and stage: A population-based study in Osaka,Japan, 2001-2014

IntroductionThe burden of stomach cancer remains high, particularly among Asian countries. Although Japan is known to achieve high survival from stomach cancer, little is known regarding the survival trends for recent years and survival by subsite and stage. We report age-standardised 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year net survival for patients diagnosed with stomach cancer in Osaka, Japan.MethodsWe analysed patients diagnosed with primary stomach cancer and registered in the population-based cancer registry in Osaka Prefecture between 2001 and 2014. We used the non-parametric Pohar Perme method to derive net survival for each year. Both cohort and period approaches were used. Age was standardised using weights of the external population of the International Cancer Survival Standard. Multiple imputation was applied to handle missing information on subsite and stage before estimating age-standardised net survival by subsite (cardia and non-cardia) and stage (localised, regional and distant metastasis). We then examined general trends in the cohort-based survival estimates, as well as by subsite and stage, using linear regression.ResultsA total of 97,276 patients were included in the analysis. Age-standardised net survival improved steadily (mean annual absolute change ≥1.2%). Net survival for both subsites improved, but cardia cancer showed 7–23% lower survival than non-cardia cancer throughout the study period. Five-year net survival remained high (≥80%) in the localised stage from the beginning of this study. Net survival increased steeply (≥1.4% per year) in the regional stage. Although 1-year net survival increased by 14% in the distant stage, 5-year and 10-year net survival remained below 10%.ConclusionAge-standardised net survival for stomach cancer in Japan improved during the study period owing to an increase in the number of patients with localised stage at diagnosis and improved treatment. Monitoring both short- and long-term survival should be continued as management of stomach cancer progresses.     

Characteristics of seedling survival in habitats of hill and gully slopes in hill-gully Loess Plateau region of northern Shaanxi

Aims Seedling is the fundament of vegetation restoration succession and plays a very important role in ecosystems. The objective of this paper was to explore the characteristics of seedling survival in habitats of hill and gully slopes in a hill-gully Loess Plateau region.
Methods Fifteen permanent plots in Zhifanggou and Songjiagou watershed in Ansai County were established for sentinel dynamic monitoring, and one-way ANOVA and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to analyze seedling density and survival rate in different habitats.
Important findings There were significant differences in the characteristics of seedling survival among different habitats, with smaller seedling density and higher survival rates observed on the sunny slopes and larger seedling density but lower survival rate found on the shady slopes. In competition for survival, Artemisia gmelinii, Potentilla tanacetifolia, and Heteropappus altaicus etc. took advantage of quality and were characterized by a higher seedling survival rate, while Artemisia scoparia, Ixeris chinensis, Siphonostegia chinensis etc. adopted a strategy of “quantity” and characterized by a higher seedling density. The same species in different habitats had different survival curves, and the same survival curves in different habitats applied to different species. The seedlings of Artemisia gmelinii, Potentilla tanacetifolia, Stipa bungeana, Heteropappus altaicus, and Lespedeza davurica etc. had a strong survival capability in the rainy season and were easy to overwinter successfully, whereas the seedling survival capability in Artemisia scoparia, Dracocephalum moldavica, and Artemisia hedinii etc. was strong priorto the rainy season but weak in winter. The characteristics of seedling survival in different micro-environments also differed. A change in micro-environment affected seedling growth, survival, and overwintering to some extent. Thus, a proper tending for seedlings according to the survival characteristics of species is conducive to the seedling establishment and vegetation succession in the hill-gully Loess Plateau region.     

Long-term evaluation of body mass at weaning and postweaning survival rates of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica

Variability in juvenile survival rate is expected to be an important component of the dynamics of long-lived animal populations. Across a range of species, individual variation in juvenile body mass has been shown to be an important cause of variation in fates of juveniles. Our goal in this paper was to estimate age-specific apparent survival rates for Weddell seals ( Leptonychotes weddellii ) in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, and to investigate hypotheses about relationships between body mass at weaning and apparent survival rate for juveniles. Mark–resighting models found average apparent juvenile survival rate (survival from weaning to age 3) was similar between males and females, and revealed positive relationships between body mass at weaning and apparent juvenile survival rate. The effects of body mass on juvenile survival rate differed between the sexes and the relationship between body mass and survival rate was stronger in males. These results indicate that the magnitude of energy transferred from mother to pup during lactation likely has important consequences on offspring survival rate and maternal fitness.