Mortality in sickle cell anemia in Africa: a prospective cohort study in Tanzania

Background

The World Health Organization has declared Sickle Cell Anemia (SCA) a public health priority. There are 300,000 births/year, over 75% in Africa, with estimates suggesting that 6 million Africans will be living with SCA if average survival reaches half the African norm. Countries such as United States of America and United Kingdom have reduced SCA mortality from 3 to 0.13 per 100 person years of observation (PYO), with interventions such as newborn screening, prevention of infections and comprehensive care, but implementation of interventions in African countries has been hindered by lack of locally appropriate information. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence and factors associated with death from SCA in Dar-es-Salaam.

Methods and Findings

A hospital-based cohort study was conducted, with prospective surveillance of 1,725 SCA patients recruited from 2004 to 2009, with 209 (12%) lost to follow up, while 86 died. The mortality rate was 1.9 (95%CI 1.5, 2.9) per 100 PYO, highest under 5-years old [7.3 (4.8–11.0)], adjusting for dates of birth and study enrollment. Independent risk factors, at enrollment to the cohort, predicting death were low hemoglobin (<5 g/dL) [3.8 (1.8–8.2); p = 0.001] and high total bilirubin (≥102 µmol/L) [1.7 (1.0–2.9); p = 0.044] as determined by logistic regression.

Conclusions

Mortality in SCA in Africa is high, with the most vulnerable period being under 5-years old. This is most likely an underestimate, as this was a hospital cohort and may not have captured SCA individuals with severe disease who died in early childhood, those with mild disease who are undiagnosed or do not utilize services at health facilities. Prompt and effective treatment for anemia in SCA is recommended as it is likely to improve survival. Further research is required to determine the etiology, pathophysiology and the most appropriate strategies for management of anemia in SCA.     

Blood pressure in prospective population based cohort of newborn and infant twins.

OBJECTIVE--To describe blood pressure in twins during infancy. DESIGN--Prospective study of cohort of twins. SETTING--Teaching hospital in Florida. SUBJECTS--166 viable twin pairs born between July 1976 and December 1989. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Blood pressure and body weight at birth, at 14 days, and at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. RESULTS--Both systolic and diastolic pressure correlated with body weight throughout infancy (at birth r = 0.41, P < 0.001 and r = 0.42, P < 0.001 respectively; at 1 year r = 0.23, P < 0.001 and r = 0.26, P < 0.001 respectively). In infants weighing < 1500 g at birth mean blood pressure rose from about 45/25 mm Hg to 101/55 mm Hg from birth to the age of 1 year, while in infants weighing > 3000 g at birth it rose from 63/39 mm Hg to 100/61 mm Hg; corresponding mean body weights at 1 year were 7.86 kg and 9.88 kg. Differences in birth weight within pairs of monozygotic twins were negatively correlated with such differences in systolic blood pressure at 1 year (r = -0.37, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS--Blood pressure and body weights in twins showed strongly positive but generally declining correlations throughout infancy. Twins of lower birth weight showed a more rapid rate of rise in blood pressure during infancy. At 1 year the catch up in blood pressure exceeded that in body weight. Greater differences in birth weights between monozygotic twins were associated with smaller differences in systolic blood pressure at 1 year, suggesting that intrauterine environmental factors related to birth weight are important in determining blood pressure in infancy.     

High incidence of unplanned pregnancy after antiretroviral therapy initiation: findings from a prospective cohort study in South Africa

Background

Increased fertility rates in HIV-infected women receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been attributed to improved immunological function; it is unknown to what extent the rise in pregnancy rates is due to unintended pregnancies.

Methods

Non-pregnant women ages 18–35 from four public-sector ART clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa, were enrolled into a prospective cohort and followed from August 2009–March 2011. Fertility intentions, contraception and pregnancy status were measured longitudinally at participants'' routine ART clinic visits.

Findings

Of the 850 women enrolled, 822 (97%) had at least one follow-up visit and contributed 745.2 person-years (PY) at-risk for incident pregnancy. Overall, 170 pregnancies were detected in 161 women (incidence rate [IR]: 21.6/100 PY [95% confidence interval (CI): 18.5–25.2]). Of the 170 pregnancies, 105 (62%) were unplanned. Unmet need for contraception was 50% higher in women initiating ART in the past year as compared to women on ART>1 year (prevalence ratio 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1–2.0]); by two years post-ART initiation, nearly one quarter of women had at least one unplanned pregnancy. Cumulative incidence of pregnancy was equally high among recent ART initiators and ART experienced participants: 23.9% [95% CI: 16.4–34.1], 15.9% [12.0–20.8], and 21.0% [16.8–26.1] for women on ART 0–1 yr, >1 yr–2 yrs, and >2 yrs respectively (log-rank, p = 0.54). Eight hormonal contraceptive failures were detected [IR: 4.4 [95% CI: 2.2–8.9], 7/8 among women using injectable methods. Overall 47% (80/170) of pregnancies were not carried to term.

Conclusions

Rates of unintended pregnancies among women on ART are high, including women recently initiating ART with lower CD4 counts and higher viral loads. A substantial burden of pregnancy loss was observed. Integration of contraceptive services and counselling into ART care is necessary to reduce maternal and child health risks related to mistimed and unwanted pregnancies. Further research into injectable contraceptive failures on ART is warranted.     

Long-term adherence to antiretroviral treatment and program drop-out in a high-risk urban setting in sub-Saharan Africa: a prospective cohort study

Background

Seventy percent of urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa live in slums. Sustaining HIV patients in these high-risk and highly mobile settings is a major future challenge. This study seeks to assess program retention and to find determinants for low adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and drop-out from an established HIV/ART program in Kibera, Nairobi, one of Africa''s largest informal urban settlements.

Methods and Findings

A prospective open cohort study of 800 patients was performed at the African Medical Research Foundation (AMREF) clinic in the Kibera slum. Adherence to ART and drop-out from the ART program were independent outcomes. Two different adherence measures were used: (1) “dose adherence” (the proportion of a prescribed dose taken over the past 4 days) and (2) “adherence index” (based on three adherence questions covering dosing, timing and special instructions). Drop-out from the program was calculated based on clinic appointment dates and number of prescribed doses, and a patient was defined as being lost to follow-up if over 90 days had expired since the last prescribed dose. More than one third of patients were non-adherent when all three aspects of adherence – dosing, timing and special instructions – were taken into account. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that not disclosing HIV status, having a low level of education, living below the poverty limit (US$ 2/day) and not having a treatment buddy were significant predictors for non-adherence. Additionally, one quarter of patients dropped out for more than 90 days after the last prescribed ART dose. Not having a treatment buddy was associated with increased risk for drop-out (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% CI = 1.0–1.9).

Conclusion

These findings point to the dilemma of trying to sustain a growing number of people on life-long ART in conditions where prevailing stigma, poverty and food shortages threatens the long-term success of HIV treatment.     

Longitudinal analysis of QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube in children with adult household tuberculosis contact in South Africa: a prospective cohort study

Background

QuantiFERON-TB Gold In Tube (QFT-GIT) is a tool for detecting M. tuberculosis infection. However, interpretation and utility of serial QFT-GIT testing of pediatric tuberculosis (TB) contacts is not well understood. We compared TB prevalence between baseline and 6 months follow-up using QFT-GIT and tuberculin skin testing (TST) in children who were household contacts of adults with pulmonary TB in South Africa, and explored factors associated with QFT-GIT conversions and reversions.

Method

Prospective study with six month longitudinal follow-up.

Results

Among 270 enrolled pediatric contacts, 196 (73%) underwent 6-month follow-up testing. The 6-month prevalence estimate of MTB infection in pediatric contacts increased significantly from a baseline of 29% (79/270, 95%CI [24–35]) to 38% (103/270, 95% CI [32–44], p<0.001) using QFT-GIT; prevalence increased from a baseline of 28% (71/254, 95%CI [23–34]) to 33% (88/263, 95%CI [21–32], p = 0.002) using TST. Prevalence estimates were influenced by thresholds for positivity for TST, but not for QFT-GIT. Among 134 children with a negative or indeterminate baseline QFT-GIT, 24 (18%) converted to positive at follow-up; conversion rates did not differ significantly when using more stringent thresholds to define QFT-GIT conversion. Older age >10 years (AOR 8.9 95%CI [1.1–72]) and baseline TST positivity ≥5 mm (AOR 5.2 95%CI [1.2–23]) were associated with QFT-GIT conversion. Among 62 children with a positive baseline QFT-GIT, 9 (15%) reverted to negative; female gender (AOR 18.5 95%CI [1.1–321]; p = 0.04] was associated with reversion, while children with baseline positive TST were less likely to have QFT-GIT reversion (AOR 0.01 95%CI [0.001–0.24]).

Conclusion

Among pediatric contacts of adult household TB cases in South Africa, prevalence estimates of TB infection increased significantly from baseline to 6 months. Conversions and reversions occurred among pediatric TB contacts using QFT-GIT, but QFT-GIT conversion rates were less influenced by thresholds used for conversions than were TST conversion rates.     

Perinatal mortality in eastern Uganda: a community based prospective cohort study

Background

To achieve a child mortality reduction according to millennium development goal 4, it is necessary to considerably reduce neonatal mortality. We report stillbirth and early neonatal mortality risks as well as determinants of perinatal mortality in Eastern Uganda.

Methods

A community-based prospective cohort study was conducted between 2006 and 2008. A total of 835 pregnant women were followed up for pregnancy outcome and survival of their children until 7 days after delivery. Mother''s residence, age, parity, bed net use and whether delivery took place at home were included in multivariable regression analyses to identify risk factors for perinatal death.

Results

The stillbirth risk was 19 per 1,000 pregnancies and the early neonatal death risk 22 per 1,000 live births. Overall, the perinatal mortality risk was 41 [95%CI: 27, 54] per 1,000 pregnancies. Of the deaths, 47% followed complicated deliveries and 24% preterm births. Perinatal mortality was 63/1,000 pregnancies among teenage mothers, 76/1,000 pregnancies among nulliparous women and 61/1,000 pregnancies among women delivering at home who, after controlling for potential confounders, had a 3.7 (95%CI: 1.8, 7.4) times higher perinatal mortality than women who gave birth in a health facility. This association was considerably stronger among nulliparous women [RR 8.0 (95%CI: 2.9, 21.6)] than among women with a previous live birth [RR 1.8 (95%CI: 0.7, 4.5)]. All perinatal deaths occurred among women who did not sleep under a mosquito net. Women living in urban slums had a higher risk of losing their babies than those in rural areas [RR: 2.7 (95%CI: 1.4, 5.3)].

Conclusion

Our findings strengthen arguments for ensuring that pregnant women have access to and use adequate delivery facilities and bed nets.     

Prognostic significance of sealed-off perforation in colon cancer: a prospective cohort study

Background

Perforated colon cancer is a rare complication, but has a high risk of recurrence. However, most studies have not distinguished sealed-off perforation from free perforation, and the prognosis is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the oncologic outcome of colon cancer with sealed-off perforation.

Methods

Eighty-six consecutive patients who underwent resection for colon cancer with sealed-off or free perforation were included. We defined sealed-off perforation as a colon perforation with localized abscess identified on operative, computed tomography, or pathologic findings, with no evidence of free perforation, including fecal contamination and dirty fluid collection in the peritoneal cavity. Oncologic outcomes were compared between patients with colon cancer with sealed-off perforation and free perforation using a log-rank test and Cox regression analysis.

Results

The sealed-off perforation group included 62 patients, and 24 patients were in the free perforation group. TNM stage and lymphatic, venous, and perineural invasion were similar between the groups. The median follow-up period was 28.9?months (range 0–159). The sealed-off perforation group had better prognosis compared with the free perforation group in terms of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), although there were no statistically significant differences in PFS (5-year PFS 53.7% vs. 40.5%, p?=?0.148; 5-year OS 53.6% vs. 22.9%, p?=?0.001). However, in multivariable analysis using the Cox progression test, sealed-off perforation did not show a significant effect on cancer progression (p =?0.138) and OS (p =?0.727).

Conclusions

Colon cancer with sealed-off perforation showed no difference in prognosis compared with free perforation.

     

Generic quality of life assessment in dementia patients: a prospective cohort study

Background  

Quality of life (QoL) is increasingly used to characterize the impact of disease and the efficacy of interventions.     

A gerontological cohort study of aged twins: the Osaka University Aged Twin Registry.

We describe subject recruitment and research results from the Osaka University Aged Twin Registry (OUATR). The research focus of OUATR is the genetic and environmental contributions to physical-cognitive-mental aging which we examined in Japanese twins in later adulthood. Within this large-scale registry (12,000 pairs) of oriental twins born between 1900 and 1935, approximately 10% of participants are MZ twins reared apart from early childhood. Two hundred and fifty pairs have had comprehensive medical examinations, including various blood chemical panels, lymphocyte subtests, WAIS (Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale), and urine analysis. The future foci of this study are primarily on longevity, decline of cognitive functions with aging, bio-physiological functions, lifestyle and behavior genetics, and psycho-spiritual functions.     

Quantitative association tests of immune responses to antigens of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a study of twins in West Africa.

There is now considerable evidence that host genetic factors are important in determining the outcome of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). The aim of this study was to assess the role of several candidate genes in the variation observed in the immune responses to MTB antigens. In-vitro assays of T-cell proliferation, an in-vivo intradermal delayed hypersensitivity response; cytokine and antibody secretions to several mycobacterial peptide antigens were assessed in healthy, but exposed, West African twins. Candidate gene polymorphisms were typed in the NRAMP1, Vitamin D receptor, IL10, IL4, IL4 receptor and CTLA-4 genes. Variants of the loci IL10 (-1082 G/A), CTLA-4 (49 A/G) and the IL4 receptor (128 A/G) showed significant associations with immune responses to several antigens. T-cell proliferative responses and antibody responses were reduced, TNF-alpha responses were increased for subjects with the CTLA-4 G allele. The T-cell proliferative responses of subjects with IL10 GA and GG genotypes differed significantly. IL4 receptor AG and GG genotypes also showed significant differences in their T-cell proliferative responses to MTB antigens. These results yield a greater understanding of the genetic mechanisms that underlie the immune responses in tuberculosis and have implications for the design of therapeutic interventions.     

Acute human lethal toxicity of agricultural pesticides: a prospective cohort study

Background

Agricultural pesticide poisoning is a major public health problem in the developing world, killing at least 250,000–370,000 people each year. Targeted pesticide restrictions in Sri Lanka over the last 20 years have reduced pesticide deaths by 50% without decreasing agricultural output. However, regulatory decisions have thus far not been based on the human toxicity of formulated agricultural pesticides but on the surrogate of rat toxicity using pure unformulated pesticides. We aimed to determine the relative human toxicity of formulated agricultural pesticides to improve the effectiveness of regulatory policy.

Methods and Findings

We examined the case fatality of different agricultural pesticides in a prospective cohort of patients presenting with pesticide self-poisoning to two clinical trial centers from April 2002 to November 2008. Identification of the pesticide ingested was based on history or positive identification of the container. A single pesticide was ingested by 9,302 patients. A specific pesticide was identified in 7,461 patients; 1,841 ingested an unknown pesticide. In a subset of 808 patients, the history of ingestion was confirmed by laboratory analysis in 95% of patients. There was a large variation in case fatality between pesticides—from 0% to 42%. This marked variation in lethality was observed for compounds within the same chemical and/or WHO toxicity classification of pesticides and for those used for similar agricultural indications.

Conclusion

The human data provided toxicity rankings for some pesticides that contrasted strongly with the WHO toxicity classification based on rat toxicity. Basing regulation on human toxicity will make pesticide poisoning less hazardous, preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths globally without compromising agricultural needs. Ongoing monitoring of patterns of use and clinical toxicity for new pesticides is needed to identify highly toxic pesticides in a timely manner. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Preadolescent development: case studies in twins.

The authors studied eight sets of healthy twins, ranging in physical maturity from prepubertal to late pubertal, and their parents, to assess psychological changes in early adolescence. A phase-specific psychosocial regression correlates with the biological onset of puberty. We present preliminary findings related to twinship, parental reactions, and longitudinal development, based on detailed case studies. Parents experienced increased conflict, detachment, and pride in response to their twins'' psychosocial development at puberty. The more advanced child in a pair tended to lead in all spheres of adjustment-school success, heterosexual interest, peer friendships, and independent behavior. Although the more advanced child began to break away from his twin, in general the twin relationships remained close. Differences in personality traits and rate of psychosocial development within a twinship tended to remain consistent or to become accentuated. They were occasionally narrowed but rarely reversed from early childhood through early adolescence. Some of the differences were fostered by dissimilar patterns of identifying with the parents.     

Diabetes in tropical Africa: a prospective study, 1981-7. II. Course and prognosis.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the clinical course of diabetes mellitus in tropical Africa. DESIGN--Continuing care and follow up until 31 March 1989 of all newly diagnosed diabetic patients registered at one hospital between 1 June 1981 and 31 May 1987. SETTING--Muhimbili Medical Centre, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. SUBJECTS--1250 Newly diagnosed diabetic patients seen over a six year period. 272 (21.8%) Had diabetes requiring insulin, 825 (66.0%) diabetes not requiring insulin, and 153 (12.2%) diabetes of uncertain type. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Survival rates during each year of follow up. RESULTS--205 (16.4%) Patients were known to have died, 126 (61.5%) in hospital and 79 (38.5%) in the community. At least a further 71 patients were likely to have died. The five year survival rates (95% confidence intervals) for patients with diabetes requiring and not requiring insulin were 71% (62% to 80%) and 84% (80% to 89%) respectively for known deaths and 60% (51% to 69%) and 82% (77% to 86%) respectively for known plus probable deaths. 49 (3.9%) Patients died at the time of presentation. Severe diabetic ketoacidosis and infection were responsible for most deaths in patients with diabetes requiring insulin. Infection was responsible for 24% of deaths in patients with diabetes not requiring insulin and was the main cause of death in the group with uncertain type of diabetes. Cardiovascular and renal causes were responsible for 24% of hospital deaths of patients with diabetes not requiring insulin. Diabetes requiring insulin, young age, and ketonuria at presentation were associated with a significantly worse five year survival on multivariate analysis. On univariate analysis underweight, female sex, low educational background, and manual occupations were additional factors with a worse prognosis. CONCLUSION--Diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa is, in many patients, a serious disease with a poor prognosis. Most deaths, however, are due to preventable causes. More effort is therefore required to increase public awareness of diabetes and to improve patient detection, management, and follow up.     

A simple algorithm to predict the development of radiological erosions in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To produce a practical algorithm to predict which patients with early rheumatoid arthritis will develop radiological erosions. DESIGN: Primary care based prospective cohort study. SETTING: All general practices in the Norwich Health Authority, Norfolk. SUBJECTS: 175 patients notified to the Norfolk Arthritis Register were visited by a metrologist soon after they had presented to their general practitioners with inflammatory polyarthritis, and again after a further 12 months. All the patients satisfied the American Rheumatism Association''s 1987 criteria for rheumatoid arthritis and were seen by a metrologist within six months of the onset of symptoms. The study population was randomly split into a prediction sample (n = 105) for generating the algorithm and a validation sample (n = 70) for testing it. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictor variables measured at baseline included rheumatoid factor status, swelling of specific joint areas, duration of morning stiffness, nodules, disability score, age, sex, and disease duration when the patient first presented. The outcome variable was the presence of radiological erosions in the hands or feet, or both, after 12 months. RESULTS: A simple algorithm based on a combination of three variables--a positive rheumatoid factor test, swelling of at least two large joints, and a disease duration of more than three months--was best able to predict erosions. When the accuracy of this algorithm was tested with the validation sample, the erosion status of 79% of patients was predicted correctly. CONCLUSIONS: A simple algorithm based on three easily measured items of information can predict which patients are at high risk and which are at low risk of developing radiological erosions.     

Neurological sequelae in twins born after assisted conception: controlled national cohort study

Objective To compare neurological sequelae in twins born after assisted conception with singletons after assisted conception and naturally conceived twins and to assess neurological sequelae in children conceived after in vitro fertilisation (IVF) compared with intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI).Design Controlled, national register based, cohort study.Participants Twins (n = 3393) and singletons (n = 5130) conceived by using assisted reproductive technologies and naturally conceived twins (n = 10 239) born in Denmark between 1995 and 2000. The children''s age at time of follow up was 2-7 years.Data sources Children were identified by cross linkage of the national medical birth registry and the national registry for in vitro fertilisation. Neurological and psychiatric diagnoses were retrieved from the national patients'' registry and the Danish psychiatric central registry.Main outcome measures Neurological sequelae, defined as cerebral palsy, mental retardation, severe mental developmental disturbances, and retarded psychomotor development. Further we made separate analyses on the specific cerebral palsy diagnosis.Results The crude prevalence rates per 1000 of neurological sequelae in twins and singletons after assisted conception and in naturally conceived twins were 8.8, 8.2, and 9.6, and of cerebral palsy 3.2, 2.5, and 4.0, respectively. In twins after assisted conception compared with control twins, the odds ratios of neurological sequelae and specifically of cerebral palsy, adjusted for child sex and year of birth, were 0.9 (95% confidence interval 0.6 to 1.4) and 0.8 (0.4 to 1.6), respectively. The corresponding odds ratios for twins after assisted conception compared with singletons after assisted conception were 1.1 (0.7 to 1.7) for neurological sequelae and 1.3 (0.6 to 2.9) for cerebral palsy. The odds ratio of neurological sequelae in children conceived by ICSI was 0.9 (0.5 to 1.7) ν children conceived by IVF.Conclusions Twins from assisted conception have a similar risk of neurological sequelae as their naturally conceived peers and singletons from assisted conception. Children born after ICSI have the same risk of neurological sequelae as children born after IVF.     

Stress and survival after cancer: a prospective study of a Finnish population-based cohort

Stress has been suggested to reduce survival after cancer, but the results of previous studies have been contradictory. We investigated the hypothesis in a national cohort of adults in Finland. Of those who completed the Stressful Life Events scale and the Stress of Daily Activities scale, 1470 and 1882, respectively, later had cancer and were included in the analysis, covering 23 years of follow-up between 1982 and 2004. In Cox regression analysis, the multivariate hazard ratio (HR) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.96-1.01) for total number of life events and the HR for the life change score was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.95-1.03). Further, the HR was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.69-1.22) for severe daily stress. Overall, the results of the current study do not support the hypothesis that stress reduces cancer survival.     

Benefits of an open access echocardiography service: a Dutch prospective cohort study

Background

Open access echocardiography has been evaluated in the United Kingdom, but hardly in the Netherlands. The echocardiography service of the SHL-Groep in Etten-Leur was set up independently from the regional hospitals. Cardiologists not involved in the direct care of the participating patients evaluated the echocardiograms taken by ultrasound technicians.

Aims

We estimated the reduction in the number of referrals to regional cardiologists, the adherence of the general practitioners (GPs) to the advice of the evaluating cardiologist, GPs’ opinion on the benefit of the echocardiography service and GPs’ adherence to the diagnostic protocol advocated in the Dutch clinical guideline for heart failure.

Methods

A prospective cohort study was performed. Patients were included from April 2011 to April 2012 (N = 155). Data from application forms (N = 155), echocardiography results (N = 155) and telephone interviews with GPs (N = 138) were analysed.

Results

GPs referred less patients to the cardiologist than they would have done without echocardiography available (92 % vs. 34 %, p < 0.001). They treated more patients by themselves (62 % vs. 10 %, p < 0.001). Most GPs (81 %) followed the advice presented on the echocardiogram result. Most GPs (82 %) found the service had clinical benefit for the patient. Sixty two percent of echocardiography requests met the criteria of the Dutch clinical guideline for heart failure.

Conclusion

Open access echocardiography saved referrals to the cardiology department, saved time, and enabled GPs to treat more patients by themselves. Adherence to diagnostic guidelines for heart failure was suboptimal.