The adaptive value of epigenetic mutation: Limited in large but high in small peripheral populations

The fate of populations during range expansions, invasions and environmental changes is largely influenced by their ability to adapt to peripheral habitats. Recent models demonstrate that stable epigenetic modifications of gene expression that occur more frequently than genetic mutations can both help and hinder adaptation in panmictic populations. However, these models do not consider interactions between epimutations and evolutionary forces in peripheral populations. Here, we use mainland–island mathematical models and simulations to explore how the faster rate of epigenetic mutation compared to genetic mutations interacts with migration, selection and genetic drift to affect adaptation in peripheral populations. Our model focuses on cases where epigenetic marks are stably inherited. In a large peripheral population, where the effect of genetic drift is negligible, our analyses suggest that epimutations with random fitness impacts that occur at rates as high as 10^–3 increase local adaptation when migration is strong enough to overwhelm divergent selection. When migration is weak relative to selection and epimutations with random fitness impacts decrease adaptation, we find epigenetic modifications must be highly adaptively biased to enhance adaptation. Finally, in small peripheral populations, where genetic drift is strong, epimutations contribute to adaptation under a wider range of evolutionary conditions. Overall, our results suggest that epimutations can change outcomes of adaptation in peripheral populations, which has implications for understanding conservation and range expansions and contractions, especially of small populations.     

Local adaptation and ecological differentiation under selection,migration, and drift in Arabidopsis lyrata*

How the balance between selection, migration, and drift influences the evolution of local adaptation has been under intense theoretical scrutiny. Yet, empirical studies that relate estimates of local adaptation to quantification of gene flow and effective population sizes have been rare. Here, we conducted a reciprocal transplant trial, a common garden trial, and a whole‐genome‐based demography analysis to examine these effects among Arabidopsis lyrata populations from two altitudinal gradients in Norway. Demography simulations indicated that populations within the two gradients are connected by gene flow (0.1 < 4N_em < 11) and have small effective population sizes (N_e < 6000), suggesting that both migration and drift can counteract local selection. However, the three‐year field experiments showed evidence of local adaptation at the level of hierarchical multiyear fitness, attesting to the strength of differential selection. In the lowland habitat, local superiority was associated with greater fecundity, while viability accounted for fitness differences in the alpine habitat. We also demonstrate that flowering time differentiation has contributed to adaptive divergence between these locally adapted populations. Our results show that despite the estimated potential of gene flow and drift to hinder differentiation, selection among these A. lyrata populations has resulted in local adaptation.     

The effects of migration and drift on local adaptation to a heterogeneous environment

Local adaptation experiments are widely used to quantify the levels of adaptation within a heterogeneous environment. However, theoretical studies generally focus on the probability of fixation of alleles or the mean fitness of populations, rather than local adaptation as it is commonly measured experimentally or in field studies. Here, we develop mathematical models and use them to generate analytical predictions for the level of local adaptation as a function of selection, migration and genetic drift. First, we contrast mean fitness and local adaptation measures and show that the latter can be expressed in a simple and general way as a function of the spatial covariance between population mean phenotype and local environmental conditions. Second, we develop several approximations of a population genetics model to show that the system exhibits different behaviours depending on the rate of migration. The main insights are the following: with intermediate migration, both genetic drift and migration decrease local adaptation; with low migration, drift decreases local adaptation but migration speeds up adaptation; with high migration, genetic drift has no effect on local adaptation. Third, we extend this analysis to cases where the trait under selection is continuous using classical quantitative genetics theory. Finally, we discuss these results in the light of recent experimental work on local adaptation.     

Gene flow and geographically structured coevolution

Many of the dynamic properties of coevolution may occur at the level of interacting populations, with local adaptation acting as a force of diversification, as migration between populations homogenizes these isolated interactions. This interplay between local adaptation and migration may be particularly important in structuring interactions that vary from mutualism to antagonism across the range of an interacting set of species, such as those between some plants and their insect herbivores, mammals and trypanosome parasites, and bacteria and plasmids that confer antibiotic resistance. Here we present a simple geographically structured genetic model of a coevolutionary interaction that varies between mutualism and antagonism among communities linked by migration. Inclusion of geographic structure with gene flow alters the outcomes of local interactions and allows the maintenance of allelic polymorphism across all communities under a range of selection intensities and rates of migration. Furthermore, inclusion of geographic structure with gene flow allows fixed mutualisms to be evolutionarily stable within both communities, even when selection on the interaction is antagonistic within one community. Moreover, the model demonstrates that the inclusion of geographic structure with gene flow may lead to considerable local maladaptation and trait mismatching as predicted by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution.     

Genetic Divergence and Signatures of Natural Selection in Marginal Populations of a Keystone,Long-Lived Conifer,Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus) from Northern Ontario

Marginal populations are expected to provide the frontiers for adaptation, evolution and range shifts of plant species under the anticipated climate change conditions. Marginal populations are predicted to show genetic divergence from central populations due to their isolation, and divergent natural selection and genetic drift operating therein. Marginal populations are also expected to have lower genetic diversity and effective population size (N _e) and higher genetic differentiation than central populations. We tested these hypotheses using eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) as a model for keystone, long-lived widely-distributed plants. All 614 eastern white pine trees, in a complete census of two populations each of marginal old-growth, central old-growth, and central second-growth, were genotyped at 11 microsatellite loci. The central populations had significantly higher allelic and genotypic diversity, latent genetic potential (LGP) and N _e than the marginal populations. However, heterozygosity and fixation index were similar between them. The marginal populations were genetically diverged from the central populations. Model testing suggested predominant north to south gene flow in the study area with curtailed gene flow to northern marginal populations. Signatures of natural selection were detected at three loci in the marginal populations; two showing divergent selection with directional change in allele frequencies, and one balancing selection. Contrary to the general belief, no significant differences were observed in genetic diversity, differentiation, LGP, and N _e between old-growth and second-growth populations. Our study provides information on the dynamics of migration, genetic drift and selection in central versus marginal populations of a keystone long-lived plant species and has broad evolutionary, conservation and adaptation significance.     

Modeling a version of the good-genes hypothesis: female choice of locally adapted males

In addition to other potential causes, immigration into locally adapted populations has been suggested to maintain the genetic variance in fitness that is necessary for the good-genes hypothesis. Using population-genetic simulations, the present contribution shows that co-occurring local adaptation and migration can maintain genetic variance in fitness. In combination with an effect of local adaptation on condition and condition-dependent sexual signaling, such a scenario therefore enables the evolution and maintenance of female choice for locally adapted males. The simulations show that this mechanism can also work when choice is costly, and that the potential benefit is similar to that in other good-genes mechanisms. As a consequence of female choice in favor of locally adapted males, differentiation between populations can be expected to increase due to the decreased effective gene flow between populations. Based on such effects, choice of locally adapted males has the potential to play an important role in speciation and adaptive radiation.     

Stress avoidance in a common annual: reproductive timing is important for local adaptation and geographic distribution

Adaptation to local environments may be an important determinant of species' geographic range. However, little is known about which traits contribute to adaptation or whether their further evolution would facilitate range expansion. In this study, we assessed the adaptive value of stress avoidance traits in the common annual Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium) by performing a reciprocal transplant across a broad latitudinal gradient extending to the species' northern border. Populations were locally adapted and stress avoidance traits accounted for most fitness differences between populations. At the northern border where growing seasons are cooler and shorter, native populations had evolved to reproduce earlier than native populations in the lower latitude gardens. This clinal pattern in reproductive timing corresponded to a shift in selection from favouring later to earlier reproduction. Thus, earlier reproduction is an important adaptation to northern latitudes and constraint on the further evolution of this trait in marginal populations could potentially limit distribution.     

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

How populations of long‐living species respond to climate change depends on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. Marginal populations are expected to have lags in adaptation (i.e. differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes population fitness and the local climate) because they receive pre‐adapted alleles from core populations preventing them from reaching a local optimum in their climatically marginal habitat. Yet, whether adaptation lags in marginal populations are a common feature across phylogenetically and ecologically different species and how lags can change with climate change remain unexplored. To test for range‐wide patterns of phenotypic variation and adaptation lags of populations to climate, we (a) built model ensembles of tree height accounting for the climate of population origin and the climate of the site for 706 populations monitored in 97 common garden experiments covering the range of six European forest tree species; (b) estimated populations' adaptation lags as the differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes tree height and the climate of the origin of each population; (c) identified adaptation lag patterns for populations coming from the warm/dry and cold/wet margins and from the distribution core of each species range. We found that (a) phenotypic variation is driven by either temperature or precipitation; (b) adaptation lags are consistently higher in climatic margin populations (cold/warm, dry/wet) than in core populations; (c) predictions for future warmer climates suggest adaptation lags would decrease in cold margin populations, slightly increasing tree height, while adaptation lags would increase in core and warm margin populations, sharply decreasing tree height. Our results suggest that warm margin populations are the most vulnerable to climate change, but understanding how these populations can cope with future climates depend on whether other fitness‐related traits could show similar adaptation lag patterns.     

The genomic footprint of climate adaptation in Chironomus riparius

The gradual heterogeneity of climatic factors poses varying selection pressures across geographic distances that leave signatures of clinal variation in the genome. Separating signatures of clinal adaptation from signatures of other evolutionary forces, such as demographic processes, genetic drift and adaptation, to nonclinal conditions of the immediate local environment is a major challenge. Here, we examine climate adaptation in five natural populations of the harlequin fly Chironomus riparius sampled along a climatic gradient across Europe. Our study integrates experimental data, individual genome resequencing, Pool‐Seq data and population genetic modelling. Common‐garden experiments revealed significantly different population growth rates at test temperatures corresponding to the population origin along the climate gradient, suggesting thermal adaptation on the phenotypic level. Based on a population genomic analysis, we derived empirical estimates of historical demography and migration. We used an F_ST outlier approach to infer positive selection across the climate gradient, in combination with an environmental association analysis. In total, we identified 162 candidate genes as genomic basis of climate adaptation. Enriched functions among these candidate genes involved the apoptotic process and molecular response to heat, as well as functions identified in studies of climate adaptation in other insects. Our results show that local climate conditions impose strong selection pressures and lead to genomic adaptation despite strong gene flow. Moreover, these results imply that selection to different climatic conditions seems to converge on a functional level, at least between different insect species.     

Parasite‐mediated selection in a natural metapopulation of Daphnia magna

Parasite‐mediated selection varying across time and space in metapopulations is expected to result in host local adaptation and the maintenance of genetic diversity in disease‐related traits. However, nonadaptive processes like migration and extinction‐(re)colonization dynamics might interfere with adaptive evolution. Understanding how adaptive and nonadaptive processes interact to shape genetic variability in life‐history and disease‐related traits can provide important insights into their evolution in subdivided populations. Here we investigate signatures of spatially fluctuating, parasite‐mediated selection in a natural metapopulation of Daphnia magna. Host genotypes from infected and uninfected populations were genotyped at microsatellite markers, and phenotyped for life‐history and disease traits in common garden experiments. Combining phenotypic and genotypic data a Q_ST–F_ST‐like analysis was conducted to test for signatures of parasite mediated selection. We observed high variation within and among populations for phenotypic traits, but neither an indication of host local adaptation nor a cost of resistance. Infected populations have a higher gene diversity (Hs) than uninfected populations and Hs is strongly positively correlated with fitness. These results suggest a strong parasite effect on reducing population level inbreeding. We discuss how stochastic processes related to frequent extinction‐(re)colonization dynamics as well as host and parasite migration impede the evolution of resistance in the infected populations. We suggest that the genetic and phenotypic patterns of variation are a product of dynamic changes in the host gene pool caused by the interaction of colonization bottlenecks, inbreeding, immigration, hybrid vigor, rare host genotype advantage and parasitism. Our study highlights the effect of the parasite in ameliorating the negative fitness consequences caused by the high drift load in this metapopulation.     

Kin groups and trait groups: population structure and epidemic disease selection

A Monte Carlo simulation based on the population structure of a small-scale human population, the Semai Senoi of Malaysia, has been developed to study the combined effects of group, kin, and individual selection. The population structure resembles D.S. Wilson's structured deme model in that local breeding populations (Semai settlements) are subdivided into trait groups (hamlets) that may be kin-structured and are not themselves demes. Additionally, settlement breeding populations are connected by two-dimensional stepping-stone migration approaching 30% per generation. Group and kin-structured group selection occur among hamlets the survivors of which then disperse to breed within the settlement population. Genetic drift is modeled by the process of hamlet formation; individual selection as a deterministic process, and stepping-stone migration as either random or kin-structured migrant groups. The mechanism for group selection is epidemics of infectious disease that can wipe out small hamlets particularly if most adults become sick and social life collapses. Genetic resistance to a disease is an individual attribute; however, hamlet groups with several resistant adults are less likely to disintegrate and experience high social mortality. A specific human gene, hemoglobin E, which confers resistance to malaria, is studied as an example of the process. The results of the simulations show that high genetic variance among hamlet groups may be generated by moderate degrees of kin-structuring. This strong microdifferentiation provides the potential for group selection. The effect of group selection in this case is rapid increase in gene frequencies among the total set of populations. In fact, group selection in concert with individual selection produced a faster rate of gene frequency increase among a set of 25 populations than the rate within a single unstructured population subject to deterministic individual selection. Such rapid evolution with plausible rates of extinction, individual selection, and migration and a population structure realistic in its general form, has implications for specific human polymorphisms such as hemoglobin variants and for the more general problem of the tempo of evolution as well.     

Evolution of migration under kin selection and local adaptation

We present here a stochastic two-locus, two-habitat model for the evolution of migration with local adaptation and kin selection. One locus determines the migration rate while the other causes local adaptation. We show that the opposing forces of kin competition and local adaptation can lead to the existence of one or two convergence stable migration rates, notably depending on the recombination rate between the two loci. We show that linkage between migration and local adaptation loci has two antagonist effects: when linkage is tight, cost of local adaptation increases, leading to smaller equilibrium migration rates. However, when linkage is tighter, the population structure at the migration locus tends to be very high because of the indirect selection, and thus equilibrium migration rates increases. This result, qualitatively different from results obtained with other models of migration evolution, indicates that ignoring drift or the detail of the genetic architecture may lead to incorrect conclusions.     

Patterns of parapatric speciation

Abstract. Geographic variation may ultimately lead to the splitting of a subdivided population into reproductively isolated units in spite of migration. Here, we consider how the waiting time until the first split and its location depend on different evolutionary factors including mutation, migration, random genetic drift, genetic architecture, and the geometric structure of the habitat. We perform large-scale, individual-based simulations using a simple model of reproductive isolation based on a classical view that reproductive isolation evolves as a by-product of genetic divergence. We show that rapid parapatric speciation on the time scale of a few hundred to a few thousand generations is plausible even when neighboring subpopulations exchange several individuals each generation. Divergent selection for local adaptation is not required for rapid speciation. Our results substantiates the claims that species with smaller range sizes (which are characterized by smaller local densities and reduced dispersal ability) should have higher speciation rates. If mutation rate is small, local abundances are low, or substantial genetic changes are required for reproductive isolation, then central populations should be the place where most splits take place. With high mutation rates, high local densities, or with moderate genetic changes sufficient for reproductive isolation, speciation events are expected to involve mainly peripheral populations.     

A meta-analysis of factors affecting local adaptation between interacting species

Adaptive divergence among populations can result in local adaptation, whereby genotypes in native environments exhibit greater fitness than genotypes in novel environments. A body of theory has developed that predicts how different species traits, such as rates of gene flow and generation times, influence local adaptation in coevolutionary species interactions. We used a meta-analysis of local-adaptation studies across a broad range of host-parasite interactions to evaluate predictions about the effect of species traits on local adaptation. We also evaluated how experimental design influences the outcome of local adaptation experiments. In reciprocally designed experiments, the relative gene flow rate of hosts versus parasites was the strongest predictor of local adaptation, with significant parasite local adaptation only in the studies in which parasites had greater gene flow rates than their hosts. When nonreciprocal studies were included in analyses, species traits did not explain significant variation in local adaptation, although the overall level of local adaptation observed was lower in the nonreciprocal than in the reciprocal studies. This formal meta-analysis across a diversity of host-parasite systems lends insight into the role of both biology (species traits) and biologists (experimental design) in detecting local adaptation in coevolving species interactions.     

Unraveling the Effects of Selection and Demography on Immune Gene Variation in Free-Ranging Plains Zebra (Equus quagga) Populations

Demography, migration and natural selection are predominant processes affecting the distribution of genetic variation among natural populations. Many studies use neutral genetic markers to make inferences about population history. However, the investigation of functional coding loci, which directly reflect fitness, is critical to our understanding of species'' ecology and evolution. Immune genes, such as those of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC), play an important role in pathogen recognition and provide a potent model system for studying selection. We contrasted diversity patterns of neutral data with MHC loci, ELA-DRA and -DQA, in two southern African plains zebra (Equus quagga) populations: Etosha National Park, Namibia, and Kruger National Park, South Africa. Results from neutrality tests, along with observations of elevated diversity and low differentiation across populations, supported previous genus-level evidence for balancing selection at these loci. Despite being low, MHC divergence across populations was significant and may be attributed to drift effects typical of geographically separated populations experiencing little to no gene flow, or alternatively to shifting allele frequency distributions driven by spatially variable and fluctuating pathogen communities. At the DRA, zebra exhibited geographic differentiation concordant with microsatellites and reduced levels of diversity in Etosha due to highly skewed allele frequencies that could not be explained by demography, suggestive of spatially heterogeneous selection and local adaptation. This study highlights the complexity in which selection affects immune gene diversity and warrants the need for further research on the ecological mechanisms shaping patterns of adaptive variation among natural populations.     

Natural selection in populations subject to a migration load

Migration tends to oppose the effects of divergent natural selection among populations. Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have demonstrated that this migration-selection balance constrains genetic divergence among populations. In contrast, relatively few studies have examined immigration's effects on fitness and natural selection within recipient populations. By constraining local adaptation, migration can lead to reduced fitness, known as a "migration load," which in turn causes persistent natural selection. We develop a simple two-island model of migration-selection balance that, although very general, also reflects the natural history of Timema cristinae walking-stick insects that inhabit two host plant species that favor different cryptic color patterns. We derive theoretical predictions about how migration rates affect the level of maladaptation within populations (measured as the frequency of less-cryptic color-pattern morphs), which in turn determines the selection differential (the within-generation morph frequency change). Using data on color morph frequencies from 25 natural populations, we confirm previous results showing that maladaptation is higher in populations receiving more immigrants. We then present novel evidence that this increased maladaptation leads to larger selection differentials, consistent with our model. Our results provide comparative evidence that immigration elevates the variance in fitness, which in turn leads to larger selection differentials, consistent with Fisher's Theorem of Natural Selection. However, we also find evidence that recurrent adult migration between parapatric populations may tend to obscure the effects of selection.     

The effects of the mating system on the evolution of migration in a spatially heterogeneous population

Summary Verbal explanations for the evolution of migration and dispersal often invoke inbreeding depression as an important force. Experimental work on plant populations indicates that while inbreeding depression may favor increased migration rates, adaptation to local environments may reduce the advantage to migrants. We formalize and test this hypothesis using a two-locus genetic model that incorporates lowered fitness in offspring produced by self-fertilization, and habitat differentiation. We also use the model to address questions about the general theory of genetic modifiers and the modifier reduction principle. We find that even under conditions when migration would increase the mean fitness of a population, migration may not be favored. This result is due to the associations that develop between genotypes at a locus subject to overdominant selection and at a neutral locus controlling the migration rate. Thus, it appears that, in this model, the forces of local adaptation, which favor a reduction in the migration rate, overwhelm those of inbreeding depression, which may favor dispersal.     

Genetic Drift in a Cline

A model is developed of genetic drift in a cline maintained by spatially varying natural selection and local dispersal of individuals. The model is analyzed by an approximation scheme which is valid for weak selection and small migration rates. The results, which are based on numerical iterations of the approximate equations, are that the cline is less steep than predicted on the basis of the deterministic theory but that for weak selection the correlation between random fluctuations in neighboring colonies is approximately the same as in models of migration and drift in the absence of selection.     

Lack of Spatial Immunogenetic Structure among Wolverine (Gulo gulo) Populations Suggestive of Broad Scale Balancing Selection

Elucidating the adaptive genetic potential of wildlife populations to environmental selective pressures is fundamental for species conservation. Genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are highly polymorphic, and play a key role in the adaptive immune response against pathogens. MHC polymorphism has been linked to balancing selection or heterogeneous selection promoting local adaptation. However, spatial patterns of MHC polymorphism are also influenced by gene flow and drift. Wolverines are highly vagile, inhabiting varied ecoregions that include boreal forest, taiga, tundra, and high alpine ecosystems. Here, we investigated the immunogenetic variation of wolverines in Canada as a surrogate for identifying local adaptation by contrasting the genetic structure at MHC relative to the structure at 11 neutral microsatellites to account for gene flow and drift. Evidence of historical positive selection was detected at MHC using maximum likelihood codon-based methods. Bayesian and multivariate cluster analyses revealed weaker population genetic differentiation at MHC relative to the increasing microsatellite genetic structure towards the eastern wolverine distribution. Mantel correlations of MHC against geographical distances showed no pattern of isolation by distance (IBD: r = -0.03, p = 0.9), whereas for microsatellites we found a relatively strong and significant IBD (r = 0.54, p = 0.01). Moreover, we found a significant correlation between microsatellite allelic richness and the mean number of MHC alleles, but we did not observe low MHC diversity in small populations. Overall these results suggest that MHC polymorphism has been influenced primarily by balancing selection and to a lesser extent by neutral processes such as genetic drift, with no clear evidence for local adaptation. This study contributes to our understanding of how vulnerable populations of wolverines may respond to selective pressures across their range.