Response to temporal parameter fluctuations in biochemical networks

Metabolic response coefficients describe how variables in metabolic systems, like steady state concentrations, respond to small changes of kinetic parameters. To extend this concept to temporal parameter fluctuations, we define spectral response coefficients that relate Fourier components of concentrations and fluxes to Fourier components of the underlying parameters. It is also straightforward to generalize other concepts from metabolic control theory, such as control coefficients with their summation and connectivity theorems. The first-order response coefficients describe forced oscillations caused by small harmonic oscillations of single parameters: they depend on the driving frequency and comprise the phases and amplitudes of the concentrations and fluxes. Close to a Hopf bifurcation, resonance can occur: as an example, we study the spectral densities of concentration fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of chemical reactions. Second-order response coefficients describe how perturbations of different frequencies interact by mode coupling, yielding higher harmonics in the metabolic response. The temporal response to small parameter fluctuations can be computed by Fourier synthesis. For a model of glycolysis, this approximation remains fairly accurate even for large relative fluctuations of the parameters.     

An efficient approach to automate the manual trial and error calibration of activated sludge models

An efficient approach is introduced to help automate the rather tedious manual trial and error way of model calibration currently used in activated sludge modeling practice. To this end, we have evaluated a Monte Carlo based calibration approach consisting of four steps: (i) parameter subset selection, (ii) defining parameter space, (iii) parameter sampling for Monte Carlo simulations and (iv) selecting the best Monte Carlo simulation thereby providing the calibrated parameter values. The approach was evaluated on a formerly calibrated full-scale ASM2d model for a domestic plant (located in The Netherlands), using in total 3 months of dynamic oxygen, ammonia and nitrate sensor data. The Monte Carlo calibrated model was validated successfully using ammonia, oxygen and nitrate data collected at high measurement frequency. Statistical analysis of the residuals using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and Janus coefficient showed that the calibrated model was able to provide statistically accurate and valid predictions for ammonium, oxygen and nitrate. This shows that this pragmatic approach can perform the task of model calibration and therefore be used in practice to save the valuable time of modelers spent on this step of activated sludge modeling. The high computational demand is a downside of this approach but this can be overcome by using distributed computing. Overall we expect that the use of such systems analysis tools in the application of activated sludge models will improve the quality of model predictions and their use in decision making.     

Penalized item response theory models: application to epigenetic alterations in bladder cancer

Increasingly used in health-related applications, latent variable models provide an appealing framework for handling high-dimensional exposure and response data. Item response theory (IRT) models, which have gained widespread popularity, were originally developed for use in the context of educational testing, where extremely large sample sizes permitted the estimation of a moderate-to-large number of parameters. In the context of public health applications, smaller sample sizes preclude large parameter spaces. Therefore, we propose a penalized likelihood approach to reduce mean square error and improve numerical stability. We present a continuous family of models, indexed by a tuning parameter, that range between the Rasch model and the IRT model. The tuning parameter is selected by cross validation or approximations such as Akaike Information Criterion. While our approach can be placed easily in a Bayesian context, we find that our frequentist approach is more computationally efficient. We demonstrate our methodology on a study of methylation silencing of gene expression in bladder tumors. We obtain similar results using both frequentist and Bayesian approaches, although the frequentist approach is less computationally demanding. In particular, we find high correlation of methylation silencing among 16 loci in bladder tumors, that methylation is associated with smoking and also with patient survival.     

Logarithmic and Power Law Input-Output Relations in Sensory Systems with Fold-Change Detection

Two central biophysical laws describe sensory responses to input signals. One is a logarithmic relationship between input and output, and the other is a power law relationship. These laws are sometimes called the Weber-Fechner law and the Stevens power law, respectively. The two laws are found in a wide variety of human sensory systems including hearing, vision, taste, and weight perception; they also occur in the responses of cells to stimuli. However the mechanistic origin of these laws is not fully understood. To address this, we consider a class of biological circuits exhibiting a property called fold-change detection (FCD). In these circuits the response dynamics depend only on the relative change in input signal and not its absolute level, a property which applies to many physiological and cellular sensory systems. We show analytically that by changing a single parameter in the FCD circuits, both logarithmic and power-law relationships emerge; these laws are modified versions of the Weber-Fechner and Stevens laws. The parameter that determines which law is found is the steepness (effective Hill coefficient) of the effect of the internal variable on the output. This finding applies to major circuit architectures found in biological systems, including the incoherent feed-forward loop and nonlinear integral feedback loops. Therefore, if one measures the response to different fold changes in input signal and observes a logarithmic or power law, the present theory can be used to rule out certain FCD mechanisms, and to predict their cooperativity parameter. We demonstrate this approach using data from eukaryotic chemotaxis signaling.     

Parametric dependence in model epidemics. I: Contact-related parameters

One of the interesting properties of nonlinear dynamical systems is that arbitrarily small changes in parameter values can induce qualitative changes in behavior. The changes are called bifurcations, and they are typically visualized by plotting asymptotic dynamics against a parameter. In some cases, the resulting bifurcation diagram is unique: irrespective of initial conditions, the same dynamical sequence obtains. In other cases, initial conditions do matter, and there are coexisting sequences. Here we study an epidemiological model in which multiple bifurcation sequences yield to a single sequence in response to varying a second parameter. We call this simplification the emergence of unique parametric dependence (UPD) and discuss how it relates to the model’s overall response to parameters. In so doing, we tie together a number of threads that have been developing since the mid-1980s. These include period-doubling; subharmonic resonance, attractor merging and subduction and the evolution of strange invariant sets. The present paper focuses on contact related parameters. A follow-up paper, to be published in this journal, will consider the effects of non-contact related parameters.     

Parametric dependence in model epidemics. I: contact-related parameters

One of the interesting properties of nonlinear dynamical systems is that arbitrarily small changes in parameter values can induce qualitative changes in behavior. The changes are called bifurcations, and they are typically visualized by plotting asymptotic dynamics against a parameter. In some cases, the resulting bifurcation diagram is unique: irrespective of initial conditions, the same dynamical sequence obtains. In other cases, initial conditions do matter, and there are coexisting sequences. Here we study an epidemiological model in which multiple bifurcation sequences yield to a single sequence in response to varying a second parameter. We call this simplification the emergence of unique parametric dependence (UPD) and discuss how it relates to the model's overall response to parameters. In so doing, we tie together a number of threads that have been developing since the mid-1980s. These include period-doubling; subharmonic resonance, attractor merging and subduction and the evolution of strange invariant sets. The present paper focuses on contact related parameters. A follow-up paper, to be published in this journal, will consider the effects of non-contact related parameters.     

Structural sensitivity and resilience in a predator–prey model with density-dependent mortality

Numerous formulations with the same mathematical properties can be relevant to model a biological process. Different formulations can predict different model dynamics like equilibrium vs. oscillations even if they are quantitatively close (structural sensitivity). The question we address in this paper is: does the choice of a formulation affect predictions on the number of stable states? We focus on a predator–prey model with predator competition that exhibits multiple stable states. A bifurcation analysis is realized with respect to prey carrying capacity and species body mass ratio within range of values found in food web models. Bifurcation diagrams built for two type-II functional responses are different in two ways. First, the kind of stable state (equilibrium vs. oscillations) is different for 26.0–49.4% of the parameter values, depending on the parameter space investigated. Using generalized modelling, we highlight the role of functional response slope in this difference. Secondly, the number of stable states is higher with Ivlev's functional response for 0.1–14.3% of the parameter values. These two changes interact to create different model predictions if a parameter value or a state variable is altered. In these two examples of disturbance, Holling's disc equation predicts a higher system resilience. Indeed, Ivlev's functional response predicts that disturbance may trap the system into an alternative stable state that can be escaped from only by a larger alteration (hysteresis phenomena). Two questions arise from this work: (i) how much complex ecological models can be affected by this sensitivity to model formulation? and (ii) how to deal with these uncertainties in model predictions?     

Dynamic Finite Size Effects in Spiking Neural Networks

We investigate the dynamics of a deterministic finite-sized network of synaptically coupled spiking neurons and present a formalism for computing the network statistics in a perturbative expansion. The small parameter for the expansion is the inverse number of neurons in the network. The network dynamics are fully characterized by a neuron population density that obeys a conservation law analogous to the Klimontovich equation in the kinetic theory of plasmas. The Klimontovich equation does not possess well-behaved solutions but can be recast in terms of a coupled system of well-behaved moment equations, known as a moment hierarchy. The moment hierarchy is impossible to solve but in the mean field limit of an infinite number of neurons, it reduces to a single well-behaved conservation law for the mean neuron density. For a large but finite system, the moment hierarchy can be truncated perturbatively with the inverse system size as a small parameter but the resulting set of reduced moment equations that are still very difficult to solve. However, the entire moment hierarchy can also be re-expressed in terms of a functional probability distribution of the neuron density. The moments can then be computed perturbatively using methods from statistical field theory. Here we derive the complete mean field theory and the lowest order second moment corrections for physiologically relevant quantities. Although we focus on finite-size corrections, our method can be used to compute perturbative expansions in any parameter.     

Theory of the growth and evolution of feather shape

We present the first explicit theory of the growth of feather shape, defined as the outline of a pennaceous feather vane. Based on a reanalysis of data from the literature, we propose that the absolute growth rate of the barbs and rachis ridges, not the vertical growth rate, is uniform throughout the follicle. The growth of feathers is simulated with a mathematical model based on six growth parameters: (1) absolute barb and rachis ridge growth rate, (2) angle of helical growth of barb ridges, (3) initial barb ridge number, (4) new barb ridge addition rate, (5) barb ridge diameter, and (6) the angle of barb ramus expansion following emergence from the sheath. The model simulates growth by cell division in the follicle collar and, except for the sixth parameter, does not account for growth by differentiation in cell size and shape during later keratinization. The model can simulate a diversity of feather shapes that correspond closely in shape to real feathers, including various contour feathers, asymmetrical feathers, and even emarginate primaries. Simulations of feather growth under different parameter values demonstrate that each parameter can have substantial, independent effects on feather shape. Many parameters also have complex and redundant effects on feather shape through their influence on the diameter of the follicle, the barb ridge fusion rate, and the internodal distance. Simulated isochrones-the loci, or sets, of feather cells of the same age-have the same oblique chevron-shaped position in the mature feather as fault bars, which are isochronic defects in the barbules created by a disruptions during development. Accurate simulation of fault bar shape and position confirms the uniform absolute growth rate hypothesis and the general realism of the model. The theory defines a six-parameter feather morphospace, and provides many predictions about the developmental determination of feather shape that can be tested with detailed observations and experiments on developing feathers. This theory also provides testable predictions about the changes in developmental mechanisms required to evolve different feather shapes to accomplish various functions.     

Multiple-vector self-adaptation in evolutionary algorithms.

Self-adaptation is a common method for learning online control parameters in an evolutionary algorithm. In one common implementation, each individual in the population is represented as a pair of vectors (x, sigma), where x is the candidate solution to an optimization problem scored in terms of f(x), and sigma is the so-called strategy parameter vector that influences how offspring will be created from the individual. Experimental evidence suggests that the elements of sigma can sometimes become too small to explore the given response surface adequately. The evolutionary search then stagnates, until the elements of sigma grow sufficiently large as a result of random variation. A potential solution to this deficiency associates multiple strategy parameter vectors with a single individual. A single strategy vector is active at any time and dictates how offspring will be generated. Experiments are conducted on four 10-dimensional benchmark functions where the number of strategy parameter vectors is varied over 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, and 20. The results indicate advantages for using multiple strategy parameter vectors. Furthermore, the relationship between the mean best result after a fixed number of generations and the number of strategy parameter vectors can be determined reliably in each case.     

Equilibrium Frequency of Endosymbionts in Multiple Infections Based on the Balance between Vertical Transmission and Cytoplasmic Incompatibility

Cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI)-inducing endosymbiotic bacteria, such as Wolbachia and Cardinium, have been well studied through field data and validations on the basis of numerical simulations. However, the analytically derived equilibrium frequency of multiple infections has not yet been determined, although the equilibrium for cases of single infection has been reported. In this study, we considered the difference equation for endosymbionts using three parameters: the probability of the failure of vertical transmission (), CI strength (), and the level of host inbreeding (). To analyze this model, we particularly focused on , i.e., the frequency of host individuals completely infected with all -bacterial strains in the population. , at the equilibrium state, was analytically calculated in the cases where and is any arbitrary value. We found that can be described using two parameters: and , which is identical to . has a larger value in a system with a smaller . In addition, determines the maximum number of strains that infect a single host. Our results revealed the following: i) three parameters can be reduced to a single parameter, i.e., and ii) the threshold of the maximum number of infections is defined by , which prevents additional invasions by endosymbionts.     

Genetic variation in male attractiveness: It is time to see the forest for the trees

Female choice based on multiple male traits, rather than on any single one, has been reported in many species and may well be a rule rather than an exception. However, the implications this has for selection acting on choosiness itself remain underappreciated. We argue that this constitutes one of the important impediments to our understanding of the evolution of mate choice. We discuss this issue primarily in the context of the Fisherian model of sexual selection. We review theory and empirical data, showing how the crucial parameter of the model—genetic variation in male attractiveness—can be estimated when attractiveness is a function of multiple traits. Based on the reviewed theory, we show how relying on individual male traits, instead of overall attractiveness, can produce biased estimates of Fisherian benefits of female choice. This bias can be substantial, especially when many traits contribute to male attractiveness. We discuss a number of methodological issues that, we hope, will stimulate future studies and help resolving the long‐standing mystery of mate choice.     

Predicting the QRS complex and detecting small changes using principal component analysis.

In this paper, a new method for QRS complex analysis and estimation based on principal component analysis (PCA) and polynomial fitting techniques is presented. Multi-channel ECG signals were recorded and QRS complexes were obtained from every channel and aligned perfectly in matrices. For every channel, the covariance matrix was calculated from the QRS complex data matrix of many heartbeats. Then the corresponding eigenvectors and eigenvalues were calculated and reconstruction parameter vectors were computed by expansion of every beat in terms of the principal eigenvectors. These parameter vectors show short-term fluctuations that have to be discriminated from abrupt changes or long-term trends that might indicate diseases. For this purpose, first-order poly-fit methods were applied to the elements of the reconstruction parameter vectors. In healthy volunteers, subsequent QRS complexes were estimated by calculating the corresponding reconstruction parameter vectors derived from these functions. The similarity, absolute error and RMS error between the original and predicted QRS complexes were measured. Based on this work, thresholds can be defined for changes in the parameter vectors that indicate diseases.     

Linking dispersal, immigration and scale in the neutral theory of biodiversity

In the classic spatially implicit formulation of Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity a local community receives immigrants from a metacommunity operating on a relatively slow timescale, and dispersal into the local community is governed by an immigration parameter m . A current problem with neutral theory is that m lacks a clear biological interpretation. Here, we derive analytical expressions that relate the immigration parameter m to the geometry of the plot defining the local community and the parameters of a dispersal kernel. Our results facilitate more rigorous and extensive tests of the neutral theory: we conduct a test of neutral theory by comparing estimates of m derived from fits to empirical species abundance distributions to those derived from dispersal kernels and find acceptable correspondence; and we generate a new prediction of neutral theory by investigating how the shapes of species abundance distributions change theoretically as the spatial scale of observation changes. We also discuss how our main analytical results can be used to assess the error in the mean-field approximations associated with spatially implicit formulations of neutral theory.     

Unravelling the functional interaction structure of a cellular network from temporal slope information of experimental data

Due to the unavoidable nonbiological variations accompanying many experiments, it is imperative to consider a way of unravelling the functional interaction structure of a cellular network (e.g. signalling cascades or gene networks) by using the qualitative information of time-series experimental data instead of computation through the measured absolute values. In this spirit, we propose a very simple but effective method of identifying the functional interaction structure of a cellular network based on temporal ascending or descending slope information from given time-series measurements. From this method, we can gain insight into the acceptable measurement error ranges in order to estimate the correct functional interaction structure and we can also find guidance for a new experimental design to complement the insufficient information of a given experimental dataset. We developed experimental sign equations, making use of the temporal slope sign information from time-series experimental data, without a specific assumption on parameter perturbations for each network node. Based on these equations, we further describe the available specific information from each part of experimental data in detail and show the functional interaction structure obtained by integrating such information. In this procedure, we use only simple algebra on sign changes without complicated computations on the measured absolute values of the experimental data. The result is, however, verified through rigorous mathematical definitions and proofs. The present method provides us with information about the acceptable measurement error ranges for correct estimation of the functional interaction structure and it further leads to a new experimental design to complement the given experimental data by informing us about additional specific sampling points to be chosen for further required information.     

Können Tiere zählen?

The “magical” number four We know already since more than 140 years that humans have the inborn ability to recognize only up to four objects correctly if counting is strictly inhibited. Many vertebrates and the honeybee workers can remember up to four objects albeit they are unable to count. This inborn numerical competence common to humans and animals raises interesting questions concerning the purpose and the evolution of this ability. The “magical” number four is obviously a neurological, historical and mythological enigma.     

Thermodynamic constraints on kinetic proofreading in biosynthetic pathways.

We develop a quantitative theory of kinetic proofreading with an arbitrary number of checking steps after the hydrolysis of a nucleoside triphosphate. In particular, we investigate the relationship between the minimum dissipation of free energy required for a given error frequency in such systems. Several conclusions can be drawn from the present treatment: first, the ultimate accuracy of error correcting selective pathways is set by the displacement from equilibrium of the nucleoside triphosphates. Second, it is advantageous to achieve a desired accuracy at a small energy dissipation with several checking steps rather than a single one. This could explain antinomies in the amino acylation reaction as well as in mRNA translation, where small structural differences lead to large differences in flow rates between right and wrong substrates. Third, all checking steps should contribute equally to the accuracy, which implies a specific and symmetrical set of rate constants for the checking events on the enzyme.