Sleep Restriction during Simulated Wildfire Suppression: Effect on Physical Task Performance

Objectives

To examine the effects of sleep restriction on firefighters’ physical task performance during simulated wildfire suppression.

Methods

Thirty-five firefighters were matched and randomly allocated to either a control condition (8-hour sleep opportunity, n = 18) or a sleep restricted condition (4-hour sleep opportunity, n = 17). Performance on physical work tasks was evaluated across three days. In addition, heart rate, core temperature, and worker activity were measured continuously. Rate of perceived and exertion and effort sensation were evaluated during the physical work periods.

Results

There were no differences between the sleep-restricted and control groups in firefighters’ task performance, heart rate, core temperature, or perceptual responses during self-paced simulated firefighting work tasks. However, the sleep-restricted group were less active during periods of non-physical work compared to the control group.

Conclusions

Under self-paced work conditions, 4 h of sleep restriction did not adversely affect firefighters’ performance on physical work tasks. However, the sleep-restricted group were less physically active throughout the simulation. This may indicate that sleep-restricted participants adapted their behaviour to conserve effort during rest periods, to subsequently ensure they were able to maintain performance during the firefighter work tasks. This work contributes new knowledge to inform fire agencies of firefighters’ operational capabilities when their sleep is restricted during multi-day wildfire events. The work also highlights the need for further research to explore how sleep restriction affects physical performance during tasks of varying duration, intensity, and complexity.     

Publication Bias in Psychology: A Diagnosis Based on the Correlation between Effect Size and Sample Size

Background

The p value obtained from a significance test provides no information about the magnitude or importance of the underlying phenomenon. Therefore, additional reporting of effect size is often recommended. Effect sizes are theoretically independent from sample size. Yet this may not hold true empirically: non-independence could indicate publication bias.

Methods

We investigate whether effect size is independent from sample size in psychological research. We randomly sampled 1,000 psychological articles from all areas of psychological research. We extracted p values, effect sizes, and sample sizes of all empirical papers, and calculated the correlation between effect size and sample size, and investigated the distribution of p values.

Results

We found a negative correlation of r = −.45 [95% CI: −.53; −.35] between effect size and sample size. In addition, we found an inordinately high number of p values just passing the boundary of significance. Additional data showed that neither implicit nor explicit power analysis could account for this pattern of findings.

Conclusion

The negative correlation between effect size and samples size, and the biased distribution of p values indicate pervasive publication bias in the entire field of psychology.     

Long Term Population,City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.     

Seasonal Effect on Infants' Sleep Regulation: A Preliminary Study in a Mediterranean Climate

Infants' sleep-wake rhythms are influenced by multiple factors, including developmental and contextual aspects, as well as circadian cycles. Empirical studies that address the seasonal impact on infants' sleep are scarce. The present study examined aspects of sleep schedule and quality, comparing summer and winter months in a Mediterranean climate. This report is based on a convenience sample of 34 healthy 7-mo-olds, an age in which sleep is well consolidated and regulated compared with the first few months of life. Sleep was measured with actigraphy, in the home context. It was found that compared with winter, in the summer months, sleep onset occurred at a later hour, and more motor activity during sleep was detected. Although the overall sleep quality, as defined by sleep efficiency score, was similar in the two seasons, in the summer, more active sleep was observed. The authors discuss the finding in terms of circadian rhythms, developmental characteristics, as well as possible environmental factors and family routines, and call for more studies, in different climates and geographical zones, and in different developmental periods. (Author correspondence: cohen.dini@gmail.com or anats@edu.haifa.ac.il)     

Climate Dynamics: A Network-Based Approach for the Analysis of Global Precipitation

Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool to investigate the statistical interdependence of many interacting elements, is used here to analyze the spatial dynamics of annual precipitation over seventy years (1941–2010). The precipitation network is built associating a node to a geographical region, which has a temporal distribution of precipitation, and identifying possible links among nodes through the correlation function.The precipitation network reveals significant spatial variability with barely connected regions, as Eastern China and Japan, and highly connected regions, such as the African Sahel, Eastern Australia and, to a lesser extent, Northern Europe. Sahel and Eastern Australia are remarkably dry regions, where low amounts of rainfall are uniformly distributed on continental scales and small-scale extreme events are rare. As a consequence, the precipitation gradient is low, making these regions well connected on a large spatial scale. On the contrary, the Asiatic South-East is often reached by extreme events such as monsoons, tropical cyclones and heat waves, which can all contribute to reduce the correlation to the short-range scale only.Some patterns emerging between mid-latitude and tropical regions suggest a possible impact of the propagation of planetary waves on precipitation at a global scale. Other links can be qualitatively associated to the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. To analyze the sensitivity of the network to the physical closeness of the nodes, short-term connections are broken. The African Sahel, Eastern Australia and Northern Europe regions again appear as the supernodes of the network, confirming furthermore their long-range connection structure. Almost all North-American and Asian nodes vanish, revealing that extreme events can enhance high precipitation gradients, leading to a systematic absence of long-range patterns.     

Group Size Effect on Cooperation in One-Shot Social Dilemmas II: Curvilinear Effect

In a world in which many pressing global issues require large scale cooperation, understanding the group size effect on cooperative behavior is a topic of central importance. Yet, the nature of this effect remains largely unknown, with lab experiments insisting that it is either positive or negative or null, and field experiments suggesting that it is instead curvilinear. Here we shed light on this apparent contradiction by considering a novel class of public goods games inspired to the realistic scenario in which the natural output limits of the public good imply that the benefit of cooperation increases fast for early contributions and then decelerates. We report on a large lab experiment providing evidence that, in this case, group size has a curvilinear effect on cooperation, according to which intermediate-size groups cooperate more than smaller groups and more than larger groups. In doing so, our findings help fill the gap between lab experiments and field experiments and suggest concrete ways to promote large scale cooperation among people.     

Influence of Control Group on Effect Size in Trials of Acupuncture for Chronic Pain: A Secondary Analysis of an Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Background

In a recent individual patient data meta-analysis, acupuncture was found to be superior to both sham and non-sham controls in patients with chronic pain. In this paper we identify variations in types of sham and non-sham controls used and analyze their impact on the effect size of acupuncture.

Methods

Based on literature searches of acupuncture trials involving patients with headache and migraine, osteoarthritis, and back, neck and shoulder pain, 29 trials met inclusion criteria, 20 involving sham controls (n = 5,230) and 18 non-sham controls (n = 14,597). For sham controls, we analysed non-needle sham, penetrating sham needles and non-penetrating sham needles. For non-sham controls, we analysed non-specified routine care and protocol-guided care. Using meta-regression we explored impact of choice of control on effect of acupuncture.

Findings

Acupuncture was significantly superior to all categories of control group. For trials that used penetrating needles for sham control, acupuncture had smaller effect sizes than for trials with non-penetrating sham or sham control without needles. The difference in effect size was −0.45 (95% C.I. −0.78, −0.12; p = 0.007), or −0.19 (95% C.I. −0.39, 0.01; p = 0.058) after exclusion of outlying studies showing very large effects of acupuncture. In trials with non-sham controls, larger effect sizes associated with acupuncture vs. non-specified routine care than vs. protocol-guided care. Although the difference in effect size was large (0.26), it was not significant with a wide confidence interval (95% C.I. −0.05, 0.57, p = 0.1).

Conclusion

Acupuncture is significantly superior to control irrespective of the subtype of control. While the choice of control should be driven by the study question, our findings can help inform study design in acupuncture, particularly with respect to sample size. Penetrating needles appear to have important physiologic activity. We recommend that this type of sham be avoided.     

Initial Effects of Wildfire on Freshwater Turtle Nesting Habitat

Natural wildfire regimes are important for ecosystem succession but can have negative ecological effects depending on fire characteristics. A portion of a granite rock barrens landscape that extends along the eastern shoreline of Georgian Bay, Lake Huron to eastern Ontario, Canada, burned in 2018 during a wildfire that affected >11,000 ha. This landscape is a biodiversity hotspot providing habitat for many species at risk where freshwater turtles nest in soil deposits in cracks and crevices in the bedrock dominated by moss (Polytrichum spp.) and lichen (Cladonia spp.) cover. To assess the initial effect of wildfire on freshwater turtle nesting habitat, we measured soil depths and estimated moss, lichen, and vascular plant cover at 2 morphology types (crevice, flat) in burned and unburned areas of the landscape. The probability that burned flat plots supported soil was near zero; the burned flat plots had 98% less soil volume compared to unburned flat plots. Although crevices were more resistant to soil loss, burned crevices still had a 15% lower probability of having soil and 35% less soil volume compared to unburned crevice plots. We estimated nest site availability by calculating the number of locations with shallow (5–10 cm), intermediate (10–20 cm), and deep (>20 cm) soils required for a small (5 cm × 5 cm) or medium (10 cm × 10 cm) nest chamber. Overall, the burned open rock barrens had 71–73% fewer sites with suitable soil depth and volume for a nest chamber of either size. Furthermore, burned plots had almost no lichen and moss cover but were dominated by bare soil, forbs, and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) seedlings. Although the loss of tree cover in previously forested areas may increase nest site availability for freshwater turtles in newly open areas, we suggest that organic soil combustion and soil erosion may require restoration activities in the post-fire landscape to support successful nesting of at-risk turtles. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

猪产仔数分子标记及其效应分析

初步确定了2个新的猪产仔数分子标记,雌激素受体基因ESR的第8外显子处的ESRB位点、催乳素受体基因的第7外显子的FSHRB位点。通过比较和分析多个产仔数的效应,初步确定了4个有利于产仔数提高的分子标记基因型,基因位点ESR、FSHRB的基因型BB的产仔数显著地高于AB、AA型;位点ESRB、PRLR的基因型AA的产仔数显著地高于AB、BB型;4个基因位点多态性与仔猪生长性能、母猪乳头数不存在显著的影响。     

Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool

Background

Although the message of “global climate change” is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To demonstrate the Climate Wizard, we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951–2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January–April), but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year, sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50°N during February-March to 10°N during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0–20°N, and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly, a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2070–2099 identified the median projected change within countries, which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change.

Conclusions/Significance

The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but at the same time, they provide examples of how Climate Wizard can be used to explore regionally- and temporally-specific analyses of climate change. Moreover, Climate Wizard is not a static product, but rather a data analysis framework designed to be used for climate change impact and adaption planning, which can be expanded to include other information, such as downscaled future projections of hydrology, soil moisture, wildfire, vegetation, marine conditions, disease, and agricultural productivity.     

Treatment Trials for Neonatal Seizures: The Effect of Design on Sample Size

Neonatal seizures are common in the neonatal intensive care unit. Clinicians treat these seizures with several anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs) to reduce seizures in a neonate. Current AEDs exhibit sub-optimal efficacy and several randomized control trials (RCT) of novel AEDs are planned. The aim of this study was to measure the influence of trial design on the required sample size of a RCT. We used seizure time courses from 41 term neonates with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy to build seizure treatment trial simulations. We used five outcome measures, three AED protocols, eight treatment delays from seizure onset (T_d) and four levels of trial AED efficacy to simulate different RCTs. We performed power calculations for each RCT design and analysed the resultant sample size. We also assessed the rate of false positives, or placebo effect, in typical uncontrolled studies. We found that the false positive rate ranged from 5 to 85% of patients depending on RCT design. For controlled trials, the choice of outcome measure had the largest effect on sample size with median differences of 30.7 fold (IQR: 13.7–40.0) across a range of AED protocols, T_d and trial AED efficacy (p<0.001). RCTs that compared the trial AED with positive controls required sample sizes with a median fold increase of 3.2 (IQR: 1.9–11.9; p<0.001). Delays in AED administration from seizure onset also increased the required sample size 2.1 fold (IQR: 1.7–2.9; p<0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that RCTs in neonates treated with hypothermia required a median fold increase in sample size of 2.6 (IQR: 2.4–3.0) compared to trials in normothermic neonates (p<0.001). These results show that RCT design has a profound influence on the required sample size. Trials that use a control group, appropriate outcome measure, and control for differences in T_d between groups in analysis will be valid and minimise sample size.     

Effects of Small-Scale Turbulence on Bacteria: A Matter of Size

We examined the influence of small-scale turbulence and its associated shear on bacterioplankton abundance and cell size. We incubated natural microbial assemblages and bacteria-only fractions and subjected them to treatments with turbulence and additions of mineral nutrients and/or organic carbon. Bacterial abundance was not affected directly by turbulence in bacteria-only incubations. In natural microbial assemblage incubations, bacterial concentrations were higher under turbulence than in still-water controls when nutrients were added. In general, in the turbulence treatments bacteria increased significantly in size, mainly due to elongation of cells. The addition of inorganic nutrients had a negative effect on bacterial size, but a significantly positive effect on abundance independently of other factors such as turbulence and the presence of predators. Flagellate grazing did not trigger an increase in bacterial size as a grazing resistance response in unmixed containers. With the addition of organic carbon, bacteria elongated and partly settled to the bottom of the containers, in both the turbulent and still treatment, but bacterial abundance did not further increase. Furthermore, bacteria aggregated in the turbulence treatments after the second day of incubation even in the absence of other components of the microbial community. We found that turbulence and the associated shear increase bacterial size and change bacterial morphology, at least under certain nutrient conditions. This might be due to a physiological response (enhanced growth rate and/or unbalanced growth) or due to the selection of opportunistic strains when organic carbon is in excess compared to mineral nutrients. We suggest that shear associated with turbulent flow enhances the DOM flux to bacteria directly as well as indirectly through enhanced grazing activity and photosynthetic release. The formation of bacterial aggregates and filaments under turbulence might give selective advantage to bacteria in terms of nutrient uptake and grazing resistance.     

Effect of Bulb Size on the Growth of Tulips

A study of the growth in the field of tulip plants from bulbsof four different sizes showed marked differences of leaf areaand shoot dry weight, those produced by larger bulbs being thegreater. Relative growth rates of the smaller plants were higherthan those of the large ones; this was due to different proportionsof total plant weight being non-growing mother bulb, as therelative growth rates of the shoots were not affected by bulbsize. The relative growth rates of daughter bulbs were alsounaffected by the mother bulb size, being very similar to previouslydetermined values in other sites and seasons. The final bulbyield was proportional to daughter bulb weight early in theseason. It is suggested that daughter bulb weight, shoot weight,and leaf area are directly related to the size of the motherbulb, and controlled by the factors determining mother bulbsize during its development.     

猪窝产仔数的遗传分析

对二花脸猪,大白猪及其杂交一代3个群体共计1686窝仔猪数的资料进行了遗传分析,结果表明猪总产仔数,活产仔数,20日龄仔猪数和45日龄仔猪数的遗传力分别为0．081,0．156,0．402和0．419。主效基因指数分析表明二花脸猪这4个性状均存在主效基因遗传。     

The Evolution of Body Size,Antennal Size and Host Use in Parasitoid Wasps (Hymenoptera: Chalcidoidea): A Phylogenetic Comparative Analysis

Chalcidoid wasps represent one of the most speciose superfamilies of animals known, with ca. 23,000 species described of which many are parasitoids. They are extremely diverse in body size, morphology and, among the parasitoids, insect hosts. Parasitic chalcidoids utilise a range of behavioural adaptations to facilitate exploitation of their diverse insect hosts, but how host use might influence the evolution of body size and morphology is not known in this group. We used a phylogenetic comparative analysis of 126 chalcidoid species to examine whether body size and antennal size showed evolutionary correlations with aspects of host use, including host breadth (specificity), host identity (orders of insects parasitized) and number of plant associates. Both morphological features and identity of exploited host orders show strong phylogenetic signal, but host breadth does not. Larger body size in these wasps was weakly associated with few plant genera, and with more specialised host use, and chalcidoid wasps that parasitize coleopteran hosts tend to be larger. Intriguingly, chalcidoid wasps that parasitize hemipteran hosts are both smaller in size in the case of those parasitizing the suborder Sternorrhyncha and have relatively larger antennae, particularly in those that parasitize other hemipteran suborders. These results suggest there are adaptations in chalcidoid wasps that are specifically associated with host detection and exploitation.     

Climate change impacts on biodiversity in Switzerland: A review

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and considers some perspectives for the future at the national level.The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution towards mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends.These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.