Prediction accuracies for growth and wood attributes of interior spruce in space using genotyping-by-sequencing

Background

Genomic selection (GS) in forestry can substantially reduce the length of breeding cycle and increase gain per unit time through early selection and greater selection intensity, particularly for traits of low heritability and late expression. Affordable next-generation sequencing technologies made it possible to genotype large numbers of trees at a reasonable cost.

Results

Genotyping-by-sequencing was used to genotype 1,126 Interior spruce trees representing 25 open-pollinated families planted over three sites in British Columbia, Canada. Four imputation algorithms were compared (mean value (MI), singular value decomposition (SVD), expectation maximization (EM), and a newly derived, family-based k-nearest neighbor (kNN-Fam)). Trees were phenotyped for several yield and wood attributes. Single- and multi-site GS prediction models were developed using the Ridge Regression Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (RR-BLUP) and the Generalized Ridge Regression (GRR) to test different assumption about trait architecture. Finally, using PCA, multi-trait GS prediction models were developed. The EM and kNN-Fam imputation methods were superior for 30 and 60% missing data, respectively. The RR-BLUP GS prediction model produced better accuracies than the GRR indicating that the genetic architecture for these traits is complex. GS prediction accuracies for multi-site were high and better than those of single-sites while multi-site predictability produced the lowest accuracies reflecting type-b genetic correlations and deemed unreliable. The incorporation of genomic information in quantitative genetics analyses produced more realistic heritability estimates as half-sib pedigree tended to inflate the additive genetic variance and subsequently both heritability and gain estimates. Principle component scores as representatives of multi-trait GS prediction models produced surprising results where negatively correlated traits could be concurrently selected for using PCA2 and PCA3.

Conclusions

The application of GS to open-pollinated family testing, the simplest form of tree improvement evaluation methods, was proven to be effective. Prediction accuracies obtained for all traits greatly support the integration of GS in tree breeding. While the within-site GS prediction accuracies were high, the results clearly indicate that single-site GS models ability to predict other sites are unreliable supporting the utilization of multi-site approach. Principle component scores provided an opportunity for the concurrent selection of traits with different phenotypic optima.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-015-1597-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Resource allocation optimization with multi-trait genomic prediction for bread wheat (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Triticum aestivum</Emphasis> L.) baking quality

Key Message

Multi-trait genomic prediction models are useful to allocate available resources in breeding programs by targeted phenotyping of correlated traits when predicting expensive and labor-intensive quality parameters.

Abstract

Multi-trait genomic prediction models can be used to predict labor-intensive or expensive correlated traits where phenotyping depth of correlated traits could be larger than phenotyping depth of targeted traits, reducing resources and improving prediction accuracy. This is particularly important in the context of allocating phenotyping resource in plant breeding programs. The objective of this work was to evaluate multi-trait models predictive ability with different depth of phenotypic information from correlated traits. We evaluated 495 wheat advanced breeding lines for eight baking quality traits which were genotyped with genotyping-by-sequencing. Through different approaches for cross-validation, we evaluated the predictive ability of a single-trait model and a multi-trait model. Moreover, we evaluated different sizes of the training population (from 50 to 396 individuals) for the trait of interest, different depth of phenotypic information for correlated traits (50 and 100%) and the number of correlated traits to be used (one to three). There was no loss in the predictive ability by reducing the training population up to a 30% (149 individuals) when using correlated traits. A multi-trait model with one highly correlated trait phenotyped for both the training and testing sets was the best model considering phenotyping resources and the gain in predictive ability. The inclusion of correlated traits in the training and testing lines is a strategic approach to replace phenotyping of labor-intensive and high cost traits in a breeding program.

     

Validating the prediction accuracies of marker-assisted and genomic selection of Fusarium head blight resistance in wheat using an independent sample

Key message

Compared with independent validation, cross-validation simultaneously sampling genotypes and environments provided similar estimates of accuracy for genomic selection, but inflated estimates for marker-assisted selection.

Abstract

Estimates of prediction accuracy of marker-assisted (MAS) and genomic selection (GS) require validations. The main goal of our study was to compare the prediction accuracies of MAS and GS validated in an independent sample with results obtained from fivefold cross-validation using genomic and phenotypic data for Fusarium head blight resistance in wheat. In addition, the applicability of the reliability criterion, a concept originally developed in the context of classic animal breeding and GS, was explored for MAS. We observed that prediction accuracies of MAS were overestimated by 127% using cross-validation sampling genotype and environments in contrast to independent validation. In contrast, prediction accuracies of GS determined in independent samples are similar to those estimated with cross-validation sampling genotype and environments. This can be explained by small population differentiation between the training and validation sets in our study. For European wheat breeding, which is so far characterized by a slow temporal dynamic in allele frequencies, this assumption seems to be realistic. Thus, GS models used to improve European wheat populations are expected to possess a long-lasting validity. Since quantitative trait loci information can be exploited more precisely if the predicted genotype is more related to the training population, the reliability criterion is also a valuable tool to judge the level of prediction accuracy of individual genotypes in MAS.

     

Improving the baking quality of bread wheat by genomic selection in early generations

Key message

Genomic selection shows great promise for pre-selecting lines with superior bread baking quality in early generations, 3 years ahead of labour-intensive, time-consuming, and costly quality analysis.

Abstract

The genetic improvement of baking quality is one of the grand challenges in wheat breeding as the assessment of the associated traits often involves time-consuming, labour-intensive, and costly testing forcing breeders to postpone sophisticated quality tests to the very last phases of variety development. The prospect of genomic selection for complex traits like grain yield has been shown in numerous studies, and might thus be also an interesting method to select for baking quality traits. Hence, we focused in this study on the accuracy of genomic selection for laborious and expensive to phenotype quality traits as well as its selection response in comparison with phenotypic selection. More than 400 genotyped wheat lines were, therefore, phenotyped for protein content, dough viscoelastic and mixing properties related to baking quality in multi-environment trials 2009–2016. The average prediction accuracy across three independent validation populations was r = 0.39 and could be increased to r = 0.47 by modelling major QTL as fixed effects as well as employing multi-trait prediction models, which resulted in an acceptable prediction accuracy for all dough rheological traits (r = 0.38–0.63). Genomic selection can furthermore be applied 2–3 years earlier than direct phenotypic selection, and the estimated selection response was nearly twice as high in comparison with indirect selection by protein content for baking quality related traits. This considerable advantage of genomic selection could accordingly support breeders in their selection decisions and aid in efficiently combining superior baking quality with grain yield in newly developed wheat varieties.

     

Multi-trait and multi-environment QTL analyses of yield and a set of physiological traits in pepper

Key message

A mixed model framework was defined for QTL analysis of multiple traits across multiple environments for a RIL population in pepper. Detection power for QTLs increased considerably and detailed study of QTL by environment interactions and pleiotropy was facilitated.

Abstract

For many agronomic crops, yield is measured simultaneously with other traits across multiple environments. The study of yield can benefit from joint analysis with other traits and relations between yield and other traits can be exploited to develop indirect selection strategies. We compare the performance of three multi-response QTL approaches based on mixed models: a multi-trait approach (MT), a multi-environment approach (ME), and a multi-trait multi-environment approach (MTME). The data come from a multi-environment experiment in pepper, for which 15 traits were measured in four environments. The approaches were compared in terms of number of QTLs detected for each trait, the explained variance, and the accuracy of prediction for the final QTL model. For the four environments together, the superior MTME approach delivered a total of 47 regions containing putative QTLs. Many of these QTLs were pleiotropic and showed quantitative QTL by environment interaction. MTME was superior to ME and MT in the number of QTLs, the explained variance and accuracy of predictions. The large number of model parameters in the MTME approach was challenging and we propose several guidelines to help obtain a stable final QTL model. The results confirmed the feasibility and strengths of novel mixed model QTL methodology to study the architecture of complex traits.     

Response and inbreeding from a genomic selection experiment in layer chickens

Background

Genomic selection (GS) using estimated breeding values (GS-EBV) based on dense marker data is a promising approach for genetic improvement. A simulation study was undertaken to illustrate the opportunities offered by GS for designing breeding programs. It consisted of a selection program for a sex-limited trait in layer chickens, which was developed by deterministic predictions under different scenarios. Later, one of the possible schemes was implemented in a real population of layer chicken.

Methods

In the simulation, the aim was to double the response to selection per year by reducing the generation interval by 50 %, while maintaining the same rate of inbreeding per year. We found that GS with retraining could achieve the set objectives while requiring 75 % fewer reared birds and 82 % fewer phenotyped birds per year. A multi-trait GS scenario was subsequently implemented in a real population of brown egg laying hens. The population was split into two sub-lines, one was submitted to conventional phenotypic selection, and one was selected based on genomic prediction. At the end of the 3-year experiment, the two sub-lines were compared for multiple performance traits that are relevant for commercial egg production.

Results

Birds that were selected based on genomic prediction outperformed those that were submitted to conventional selection for most of the 16 traits that were included in the index used for selection. However, although the two programs were designed to achieve the same rate of inbreeding per year, the realized inbreeding per year assessed from pedigree was higher in the genomic selected line than in the conventionally selected line.

Conclusions

The results demonstrate that GS is a promising alternative to conventional breeding for genetic improvement of layer chickens.     

MHC polymorphism and disease resistance to vibrio anguillarum in 8 families of half-smooth tongue sole (Cynoglossus semilaevis)

Background

Most quantitative traits are controlled by multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL). The contribution of each locus may be negligible but the collective contribution of all loci is usually significant. Genome selection that uses markers of the entire genome to predict the genomic values of individual plants or animals can be more efficient than selection on phenotypic values and pedigree information alone for genetic improvement. When a quantitative trait is contributed by epistatic effects, using all markers (main effects) and marker pairs (epistatic effects) to predict the genomic values of plants can achieve the maximum efficiency for genetic improvement.

Results

In this study, we created 126 recombinant inbred lines of soybean and genotyped 80 makers across the genome. We applied the genome selection technique to predict the genomic value of somatic embryo number (a quantitative trait) for each line. Cross validation analysis showed that the squared correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted embryo numbers was 0.33 when only main (additive) effects were used for prediction. When the interaction (epistatic) effects were also included in the model, the squared correlation coefficient reached 0.78.

Conclusions

This study provided an excellent example for the application of genome selection to plant breeding.     

Accelerating wheat breeding for end-use quality with multi-trait genomic predictions incorporating near infrared and nuclear magnetic resonance-derived phenotypes

Key message

Using NIR and NMR predictions of quality traits overcomes a major barrier for the application of genomic selection to accelerate improvement in grain end-use quality traits of wheat.

Abstract

Grain end-use quality traits are among the most important in wheat breeding. These traits are difficult to breed for, as their assays require flour quantities only obtainable late in the breeding cycle, and are expensive. These traits are therefore an ideal target for genomic selection. However, large reference populations are required for accurate genomic predictions, which are challenging to assemble for these traits for the same reasons they are challenging to breed for. Here, we use predictions of end-use quality derived from near infrared (NIR) or nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), that require very small amounts of flour, as well as end-use quality measured by industry standard assay in a subset of accessions, in a multi-trait approach for genomic prediction. The NIR and NMR predictions were derived for 19 end-use quality traits in 398 accessions, and were then assayed in 2420 diverse wheat accessions. The accessions were grown out in multiple locations and multiple years, and were genotyped for 51208 SNP. Incorporating NIR and NMR phenotypes in the multi-trait approach increased the accuracy of genomic prediction for most quality traits. The accuracy ranged from 0 to 0.47 before the addition of the NIR/NMR data, while after these data were added, it ranged from 0 to 0.69. Genomic predictions were reasonably robust across locations and years for most traits. Using NIR and NMR predictions of quality traits overcomes a major barrier for the application of genomic selection for grain end-use quality traits in wheat breeding.

     

Rice diversity panel provides accurate genomic predictions for complex traits in the progenies of biparental crosses involving members of the panel

Key message

Rice breeding programs based on pedigree schemes can use a genomic model trained with data from their working collection to predict performances of progenies produced through rapid generation advancement.

Abstract

So far, most potential applications of genomic prediction in plant improvement have been explored using cross validation approaches. This is the first empirical study to evaluate the accuracy of genomic prediction of the performances of progenies in a typical rice breeding program. Using a cross validation approach, we first analyzed the effects of marker selection and statistical methods on the accuracy of prediction of three different heritability traits in a reference population (RP) of 284 inbred accessions. Next, we investigated the size and the degree of relatedness with the progeny population (PP) of sub-sets of the RP that maximize the accuracy of prediction of phenotype across generations, i.e., for 97 F₅–F₇ lines derived from biparental crosses between 31 accessions of the RP. The extent of linkage disequilibrium was high (r ² = 0.2 at 0.80 Mb in RP and at 1.1 Mb in PP). Consequently, average marker density above one per 22 kb did not improve the accuracy of predictions in the RP. The accuracy of progeny prediction varied greatly depending on the composition of the training set, the trait, LD and minor allele frequency. The highest accuracy achieved for each trait exceeded 0.50 and was only slightly below the accuracy achieved by cross validation in the RP. Our results thus show that relatively high accuracy (0.41–0.54) can be achieved using only a rather small share of the RP, most related to the PP, as the training set. The practical implications of these results for rice breeding programs are discussed.

     

Genomic predictions of breeding values in a cloned <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eucalyptus globulus</Emphasis> population in Chile

In Chile, an intensive Eucalyptus globulus clonal selection program is being carried out to increase forest productivity for pulp production. A breeding population was used to investigate the predicted ability of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers for genomic selection (GS). A total of 310 clones from 53 families were used. Stem volume and wood density were measured on all clones. Trees were genotyped at 12 K polymorphic markers using the EUChip60K genotype array. Genomic best linear unbiased prediction, Bayesian lasso regression, Bayes B, and Bayes C models were used to predict genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV). For cross-validation, 260 individuals were sampled for model training and 50 individuals for model validation, using 2 folds and 10 replications each. The average predictive ability estimates for wood density and stem volume across the models were 0.58 and 0.75, respectively. The average rank correlations were 0.59 and 0.71, respectively. Models produced very similar bias for both traits. When clones were ranked based on their GEBV, models had similar phenotypic mean for the top 10% of the clones. The predicted ability of markers will likely decrease if the models are used to predict GEBV of new material coming from the breeding program, because of a different marker–trait phase introduced by recombination. The results should be validated with larger populations and across two generations before routine applications of GS in E. globulus. We suggest that GS is a viable strategy to accelerate clonal selection program of E. globulus in Chile.     

Genomic prediction based on data from three layer lines using non-linear regression models

Background

Most studies on genomic prediction with reference populations that include multiple lines or breeds have used linear models. Data heterogeneity due to using multiple populations may conflict with model assumptions used in linear regression methods.

Methods

In an attempt to alleviate potential discrepancies between assumptions of linear models and multi-population data, two types of alternative models were used: (1) a multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model that modelled trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits and (2) non-linear models based on kernel learning. These models were compared to conventional linear models for genomic prediction for two lines of brown layer hens (B1 and B2) and one line of white hens (W1). The three lines each had 1004 to 1023 training and 238 to 240 validation animals. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by estimating the correlation between observed phenotypes and predicted breeding values.

Results

When the training dataset included only data from the evaluated line, non-linear models yielded at best a similar accuracy as linear models. In some cases, when adding a distantly related line, the linear models showed a slight decrease in performance, while non-linear models generally showed no change in accuracy. When only information from a closely related line was used for training, linear models and non-linear radial basis function (RBF) kernel models performed similarly. The multi-trait GBLUP model took advantage of the estimated genetic correlations between the lines. Combining linear and non-linear models improved the accuracy of multi-line genomic prediction.

Conclusions

Linear models and non-linear RBF models performed very similarly for genomic prediction, despite the expectation that non-linear models could deal better with the heterogeneous multi-population data. This heterogeneity of the data can be overcome by modelling trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits, which avoids the occasional occurrence of large negative accuracies when the evaluated line was not included in the training dataset. Furthermore, when using a multi-line training dataset, non-linear models provided information on the genotype data that was complementary to the linear models, which indicates that the underlying data distributions of the three studied lines were indeed heterogeneous.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12711-014-0075-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Genome-wide regression models considering general and specific combining ability predict hybrid performance in oilseed rape with similar accuracy regardless of trait architecture

Key Message

Genomic prediction using the Brassica 60 k genotyping array is efficient in oilseed rape hybrids. Prediction accuracy is more dependent on trait complexity than on the prediction model.

Abstract

In oilseed rape breeding programs, performance prediction of parental combinations is of fundamental importance. Due to the phenomenon of heterosis, per se performance is not a reliable indicator for F₁-hybrid performance, and selection of well-paired parents requires the testing of large quantities of hybrid combinations in extensive field trials. However, the number of potential hybrids, in general, dramatically exceeds breeding capacity and budget. Integration of genomic selection (GS) could substantially increase the number of potential combinations that can be evaluated. GS models can be used to predict the performance of untested individuals based only on their genotypic profiles, using marker effects previously predicted in a training population. This allows for a preselection of promising genotypes, enabling a more efficient allocation of resources. In this study, we evaluated the usefulness of the Illumina Brassica 60 k SNP array for genomic prediction and compared three alternative approaches based on a homoscedastic ridge regression BLUP and three Bayesian prediction models that considered general and specific combining ability (GCA and SCA, respectively). A total of 448 hybrids were produced in a commercial breeding program from unbalanced crosses between 220 paternal doubled haploid lines and five male-sterile testers. Predictive ability was evaluated for seven agronomic traits. We demonstrate that the Brassica 60 k genotyping array is an adequate and highly valuable platform to implement genomic prediction of hybrid performance in oilseed rape. Furthermore, we present first insights into the application of established statistical models for prediction of important agronomical traits with contrasting patterns of polygenic control.

     

Optimizing the allocation of resources for genomic selection in one breeding cycle

Key message

We developed a universally applicable planning tool for optimizing the allocation of resources for one cycle of genomic selection in a biparental population. The framework combines selection theory with constraint numerical optimization and considers genotype? ×? environment interactions.

Abstract

Genomic selection (GS) is increasingly implemented in plant breeding programs to increase selection gain but little is known how to optimally allocate the resources under a given budget. We investigated this problem with model calculations by combining quantitative genetic selection theory with constraint numerical optimization. We assumed one selection cycle where both the training and prediction sets comprised double haploid (DH) lines from the same biparental population. Grain yield for testcrosses of maize DH lines was used as a model trait but all parameters can be adjusted in a freely available software implementation. An extension of the expected selection accuracy given by Daetwyler et al. (2008) was developed to correctly balance between the number of environments for phenotyping the training set and its population size in the presence of genotype?×?environment interactions. Under small budget, genotyping costs mainly determine whether GS is superior over phenotypic selection. With increasing budget, flexibility in resource allocation increases greatly but selection gain leveled off quickly requiring balancing the number of populations with the budget spent for each population. The use of an index combining phenotypic and GS predicted values in the training set was especially beneficial under limited resources and large genotype × environment interactions. Once a sufficiently high selection accuracy is achieved in the prediction set, further selection gain can be achieved most efficiently by massively expanding its size. Thus, with increasing budget, reducing the costs for producing a DH line becomes increasingly crucial for successfully exploiting the benefits of GS.     

Genome-wide association mapping of yield and yield components of spring wheat under contrasting moisture regimes

Key message

A stable QTL that may be used in marker-assisted selection in wheat breeding programs was detected for yield, yield components and drought tolerance-related traits in spring wheat association mapping panel.

Abstract

Genome-wide association mapping has become a widespread method of quantitative trait locus (QTL) identification for many crop plants including wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Its benefit over traditional bi-parental mapping approaches depends on the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the mapping population. The objectives of this study were to determine linkage disequilibrium decay rate and population structure in a spring wheat association mapping panel (n = 285–294) and to identify markers associated with yield and yield components, morphological, phenological, and drought tolerance-related traits. The study was conducted under fully irrigated and rain-fed conditions at Greeley, CO, USA and Melkassa, Ethiopia in 2010 and 2011 (five total environments). Genotypic data were generated using diversity array technology markers. Linkage disequilibrium decay rate extended over a longer genetic distance for the D genome (6.8 cM) than for the A and B genomes (1.7 and 2.0 cM, respectively). Seven subpopulations were identified with population structure analysis. A stable QTL was detected for grain yield on chromosome 2DS both under irrigated and rain-fed conditions. A multi-trait region significant for yield and yield components was found on chromosome 5B. Grain yield QTL on chromosome 1BS co-localized with harvest index QTL. Vegetation indices shared QTL with harvest index on chromosome 1AL and 5A. After validation in relevant genetic backgrounds and environments, QTL detected in this study for yield, yield components and drought tolerance-related traits may be used in marker-assisted selection in wheat breeding programs.     

Genomic models with genotype × environment interaction for predicting hybrid performance: an application in maize hybrids

Key message

A new genomic model that incorporates genotype?×?environment interaction gave increased prediction accuracy of untested hybrid response for traits such as percent starch content, percent dry matter content and silage yield of maize hybrids.

Abstract

The prediction of hybrid performance (HP) is very important in agricultural breeding programs. In plant breeding, multi-environment trials play an important role in the selection of important traits, such as stability across environments, grain yield and pest resistance. Environmental conditions modulate gene expression causing genotype?×?environment interaction (G?×?E), such that the estimated genetic correlations of the performance of individual lines across environments summarize the joint action of genes and environmental conditions. This article proposes a genomic statistical model that incorporates G?×?E for general and specific combining ability for predicting the performance of hybrids in environments. The proposed model can also be applied to any other hybrid species with distinct parental pools. In this study, we evaluated the predictive ability of two HP prediction models using a cross-validation approach applied in extensive maize hybrid data, comprising 2724 hybrids derived from 507 dent lines and 24 flint lines, which were evaluated for three traits in 58 environments over 12 years; analyses were performed for each year. On average, genomic models that include the interaction of general and specific combining ability with environments have greater predictive ability than genomic models without interaction with environments (ranging from 12 to 22%, depending on the trait). We concluded that including G?×?E in the prediction of untested maize hybrids increases the accuracy of genomic models.

     

Performance of multi-trait genomic selection for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eucalyptus robusta</Emphasis> breeding program

In forest tree genetic improvement, multi-trait genomic selection (GS) may have advantages in improving the accuracy of the genotype estimation and shortening selection cycles. For the breeding of Eucalyptus robusta, one of the most exotic planted species in Madagascar, volume at 49 months (V49), total lignin (TL), and holo-cellulose (Holo) were considered. For GS, 2919 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) were used with the genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP) method, which was as efficient as the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and elastic net methods (EN), but more adapted to multi-trait modeling. The efficiency of individual I model, including the genomic data, was much higher than the provenance effect P model. For example, with V49, mean goodness-of-fit was: r_{I_Full} =?0.79, r_{P_Full} =?0.37 for I and P, respectively. The prediction accuracies using the cross-validation procedure were lower for V49: r_I =?0.29 r_P =?0.28. The genetic gains resulting from the indexes associating (V49, TL) and (V49, Holo) were higher using I than for the P model; for V49, the relative genetic gain was 37 and 20%, respectively, with 5% of selection intensity. The single-trait approach was as efficient as the multi-trait approach given the weak correlations between V49 and TL or Holo. The I model also brings greater diversity: for V49 the number of provenances represented in a selected population was two and three with the P model, and 6 and 16 with the I model.     

Genomic selection for grain yield and quality traits in durum wheat

The prediction accuracies of genomic selection depend on several factors, including the genetic architecture of target traits, the number of traits considered at a given time, and the statistical models. Here, we assessed the potential of single-trait (ST) and multi-trait (MT) genomic prediction models for durum wheat on yield and quality traits using a breeding panel (BP) of 170 varieties and advanced breeding lines, and a doubled-haploid (DH) population of 154 lines. The two populations were genotyped with the Infinium iSelect 90K SNP assay and phenotyped for various traits. Six ST-GS models (RR-BLUP, G-BLUP, BayesA, BayesB, Bayesian LASSO, and RKHS) and three MT prediction approaches (MT-BayesA, MT-Matrix, and MT-SI approaches which use economic selection index as a trait value) were applied for predicting yield, protein content, gluten index, and alveograph measures. The ST prediction accuracies ranged from 0.5 to 0.8 for the various traits and models and revealed comparable prediction accuracies for most of the traits in both populations, except BayesA and BayesB, which better predicted gluten index, tenacity, and strength in the DH population. The MT-GS models were more accurate than the ST-GS models only for grain yield in the BP. Using BP as a training set to predict the DH population resulted in poor predictions. Overall, all the six ST-GS models appear to be applicable for GS of yield and gluten strength traits in durum wheat, but we recommend the simple computational models RR-BLUP or G-BLUP for predicating single trait and MT-SI for predicting yield and protein simultaneously.     

The Accuracy of Genomic Selection in Norwegian Red Cattle Assessed by Cross-Validation

Genomic Selection (GS) is a newly developed tool for the estimation of breeding values for quantitative traits through the use of dense markers covering the whole genome. For a successful application of GS, accuracy of the prediction of genomewide breeding value (GW-EBV) is a key issue to consider. Here we investigated the accuracy and possible bias of GW-EBV prediction, using real bovine SNP genotyping (18,991 SNPs) and phenotypic data of 500 Norwegian Red bulls. The study was performed on milk yield, fat yield, protein yield, first lactation mastitis traits, and calving ease. Three methods, best linear unbiased prediction (G-BLUP), Bayesian statistics (BayesB), and a mixture model approach (MIXTURE), were used to estimate marker effects, and their accuracy and bias were estimated by using cross-validation. The accuracies of the GW-EBV prediction were found to vary widely between 0.12 and 0.62. G-BLUP gave overall the highest accuracy. We observed a strong relationship between the accuracy of the prediction and the heritability of the trait. GW-EBV prediction for production traits with high heritability achieved higher accuracy and also lower bias than health traits with low heritability. To achieve a similar accuracy for the health traits probably more records will be needed.GENOMIC selection (GS) is a new technology that is expected to revolutionize animal breeding. It is distinct from traditional selection methods where phenotype and pedigree information is combined to predict breeding values and where at least one source is necessary for a prediction. Estimation of GS breeding value is based on the estimation of marker effects covering the whole genome and combines these estimates with the marker genotypes to obtain breeding value estimates. Given a sufficiently dense genomewide marker map, all the genetic variance is expected to be explained by the markers, and all quantitative trait loci (QTL) are in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with at least one marker (Calus et al. 2008). This allows GS to predict genomewide estimates of breeding values (GW-EBV) without the need of phenotyping the selection candidates. A potential cost reduction of up to 90% can be achieved for a breeding program by GS (Schaeffer 2006), because only a moderate number of individuals are required to have both known marker genotypes and phenotypes. These individuals form a reference data set for the estimation of GW-EBV. The knowledge obtained from the reference data set can be applied to the calculation of GW-EBV for the selection candidates on the basis of their marker genotypes, with an accuracy that is found in the validation of the prediction (Goddard and Hayes 2007).For a successful application of GS, based on a reference data set, to a usually much larger population of selection candidates without phenotypic records, accuracy of the prediction is a key issue to consider (Goddard and Hayes 2009). Since GS was first proposed by Meuwissen et al. (2001), many research works using simulated data have been performed on this issue (Calus and Veerkamp 2007; Habier et al. 2007; Kolbehdari et al. 2007; Calus et al. 2008; Solberg et al. 2008). The recent availability of genomewide dense SNP marker maps has made GS with real data feasible. Studies of the accuracy of genomic predictions have emerged in some animal species, including mice (Lee et al. 2008; Legarra et al. 2008), chickens (Gonzalez-Recio et al. 2009), and cattle (Hayes et al. 2009), and in plant species [for example, barley (Zhong et al. 2009)]. For GS applied to dairy cattle, accuracies for the GW-EBV have been reported in North American Holstein (VanRaden et al. 2009), Australian Holstein–Friesian (Hayes et al. 2009), and New Zealand Holstein–Friesian and Jersey dairy cattle (Harris et al. 2008).In the present work we applied GS to Norwegian Red dairy cattle to investigate the accuracy and possible bias of GW-EBV prediction for the phenotypes of milk production, clinical mastitis, and calving ease, by using real bovine genotyping data. Three methods, best linear unbiased prediction, Bayesian statistics, and a mixture model approach were used in the study, and their accuracies and biases of the GW-EBV were compared. To estimate the accuracy and bias of the GW-EBV the approach of cross-validation was employed, making use of estimates of breeding value from the Norwegian Red dairy cattle breeding scheme.