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1.

Abstract  

The pattern of overseas immigration of Laodelphax striatellus (Fallén) into northern Kyushu district in relation to weather conditions was analyzed using trap catch data, weather data, and backward trajectory analysis. The investigation covered the period May 21 to June 10 of each year between 2000 and 2009. One peak trap catch was recorded on May 27–28, 2006 and was associated with strong westerly winds at 850 and 925 hPa levels to the south of a cold vortex that passed over the southern part of the Korean peninsula. The backward trajectory analysis suggested Jiangsu Province, China, as possible migration source. Another peak catch on June 5, 2008 has already been reported as an overseas migration from Jiangsu Province, China. This study revealed that a cold vortex passing the southern Korean peninsula was also associated with insect migration in 2008. Thus, there is evidence of at least 2 overseas migrations from Jiangsu Province, China, over a 10-year period that coincided with strong westerly winds in the lower atmosphere that were associated with cold vortices.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract
  • 1 Migrations of Sogatella furcifera captured in Japan in the 2003 season were analysed using hourly catches and a simulation model.
  • 2 The catch data showed several clear migration peaks, with average durations of 4 h. The peaks were separated from each other by approximately 12 h, corresponding to the observed fact that planthoppers take off at dusk or dawn.
  • 3 The simulation model comprised two components: a numerical weather forecast submodel, MM5, and a particle dispersion submodel, GEARN. The simulation model used three‐dimensional meteorological data and calculated the relative aerial density of migrating planthoppers to allow analysis of the timing and area of migrations in Japan.
  • 4 The simulation model, together with the hourly catches, enabled an estimation of migration source regions.
  • 5 Possible migration sources during our hourly observation period were located in the coastal area of Fujian province in China, as well as Taiwan.
  相似文献   

3.
基于两种轨迹模型的褐飞虱迁飞轨迹比较研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
异地预测是迁飞性害虫发生预测的重要内容,迁飞轨迹模拟和预测是能较好地反映害虫迁飞时空动态的一种异地预测方法。褐飞虱作为我国水稻生产上的一种重要迁飞性害虫,其迁飞轨迹的准确预报,可为其灾变预警和有效防控提供科学依据。为了比较选择一些准确性好、分辨率高、易于推广应用的害虫迁飞轨迹模型,选取2006年7月初发生在湖南省洪江市的一次褐飞虱重大北迁过程作为典型个例,运用中尺度天气研究和预报模式WRF,结合NCEP气象再分析数据,利用HYSPLIT和FLEXPART两种轨迹计算模式对褐飞虱迁飞轨迹进行模拟,并验证模型模拟和计算的准确度和精确度。研究结果表明:(1)WRF-HYSPLIT和WRF-FLEXPART两种轨迹计算模式在虫源地、迁飞路径(迁飞方位角和走向)、迁飞高度、迁飞速率和迁飞距离计算上总体趋势一致,但存在一定的差异,后者的起伏变化大于前者。(2)尽管两种耦合模式在调用WRF模式输出的预报场物理变量方面有很多相同之处,但WRF-FLEXPART耦合模式在运行计算过程中比WRF-HYSPLIT耦合模式多考虑了对流参数、地表胁迫和各种地形参数,因而能更全面地反映中尺度天气过程(特别是对流性天气过程)对昆虫起飞、空中飞行和降落的动力作用,也能更真实地反映地表物理过程、大气湍流结构和地形起伏对褐飞虱种群迁飞的影响。(3)从褐飞虱种群对生境和取食条件选择上看,两种模式模拟的各高度迁入种群的虫源区、迁飞路径和降落地都是合理的、准确的。但从褐飞虱迁出、空中飞行和降落所处的三维流场来看,WRF-FLEXPART模式轨迹走向与盛行气流方向的吻合度要明显高于WRF-HYSPLIT模式。(4)两种模式均可作为业务工具在迁飞性害虫测报中推广应用。  相似文献   

4.
张云慧  张智  李超  姜玉英  曾娟  程登发 《昆虫学报》2013,56(12):1418-1429
粘虫Mythimna separata是我国农业生产上的重要害虫, 为了明确其季节性迁飞行为参数, 本研究采用垂直监测昆虫雷达(vertical-looking radar, VLR)及相关辅助设备的长期自动观测, 结合基于GIS的大区环流和轨迹模拟, 调查分析了2005年东北地区粘虫季节性迁飞行为。结果表明: 粘虫在不同季节和夜间不同时间空中飞行高度具有明显差异, 空中飞行行为受气象条件尤其是空中风场影响较大; 春季和秋季主要借助气流运载进行大规模长距离迁飞, 夜间持续飞行时间可达9 h, 多数个体能完成整夜飞行, 春季迁飞高度主要在300~600 m, 秋季飞行高度相对较低主要在300 m以下和400~500 m。夏季雷达回波有明显的成层现象, 最高可达1 000 m, 主要集中在500 m和700 m两个高度层。轨迹分析显示: 5月29日由山东潍坊、 临沂等虫源地起飞的黏虫, 顺西南气流越海迁飞, 6月1日在气旋天气影响下, 在吉林省白城等地降落; 7月中旬主要为当地黏虫受对流天气影响进行短距离迁飞扩散; 9月11日虫源来自内蒙古呼伦贝尔, 顺西北气流向吉林省东南方向迁飞。研究结果为东北地区粘虫的有效防控提供了技术支撑。  相似文献   

5.
2020年江苏省邳州市于3月31日发现草地贪夜蛾Spodoptera frugiperda成虫,远早于该地区2019年草地贪夜蛾的始见期6月份。为明确该地区草地贪夜蛾种群性质,利用昆虫轨迹分析方法,模拟分析了2020年江苏省邳州市早期发现的草地贪夜蛾的迁飞路径及天气背景场。结果表明:邳州市2019年12月-2020年2月温度低,草地贪夜蛾无法在此地越冬存活,2020年3月31日所诱捕的草地贪夜蛾为外地迁入,其虫源来自广西和广东西部的周年繁殖区;虽然邳州市3月份常年盛行北风和西北风,西南风发生概率低导致草地贪夜蛾迁入邳州市概率较小,但2020年3月底850 hPa的强西南气流为草地贪夜蛾从我国华南地区迁入邳州市提供了条件。本研究结果阐明了在极端条件下草地贪夜蛾从华南地区迁入江苏省的可能性,丰富了江苏省草地贪夜蛾春季早期迁入的理论依据。  相似文献   

6.
湖南白背飞虱前期迁入种群中小尺度虫源地及降落机制   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
湖南是白背飞虱(Sogatella furcifera(Horváth))南北往返的必经之路和主害区。明确白背飞虱前期(至5月20日)迁入种群的中小尺度虫源地和降落机制,对实现精细化异地预测至关重要。择出2012年湖南稻区白背飞虱前期迁入种群的上灯峰日,用新一代中尺度数值预报模式WRF(Weather Rsearch and Forecast)做三维轨迹分析,明确虫源地分布,并对其迁飞过程进行多因素的时空动态分析。结果表明:(1)2012年湘西白背飞虱迁入虫源主要来自越南北部、广西西南部,少量来自广西东南部与广东南部。湘东南、湘中迁入虫源主要来自广东南部、广西东南部,少部分来自海南。此外,每年4月下旬与5月上旬我国南部盛行西南气流,湘东南位置偏东,加之南岭山脉的阻挡,该区迁入峰次与迁入量较湘西较少。(2)低空急流为白背飞虱的北迁提供了运载气流,锋面气旋与切变线等天气尺度系统以及强烈上升气流带来的降水、低温屏障与下沉气流是湖南稻区白背飞虱集中迫降的3个直接因素;(3)白背飞虱前期迁入种群在湖南的主要落点基本沿湘西武陵山区至湘南雪峰山区一带以及"湘桂走廊"东端分布,地形是导致湘西降虫发生频率高、迁入量大的主要因素。由于山体阻塞与地面摩擦形成的小型垂直环流、夜间山风的作用及山谷间的峡谷风可导致白背飞虱的集中降落,较大的灯诱峰次主要位于谷地或者是山体的迎风坡。  相似文献   

7.
2010年6月10-12日, 我国华南、 江南南部稻区出现了稻纵卷叶螟Cnaphalocrocis medinalis (Guenée)的大范围同期突增。为了明确此次同期突增的虫源性质, 进一步揭示稻纵卷叶螟大规模降落的大气动力学机制, 我们利用HYSPLIT轨迹分析平台、 地理信息系统ArcGIS和气象图形软件GrADS, 对稻纵卷叶螟的迁飞过程及大气背景场进行了个例研究。结果表明: (1)粤北大范围的稻纵卷叶螟突增以外地迁入种群为主, 部分为本地繁殖种群; (2)西南低空急流为稻纵卷叶螟的远距离迁飞提供了运载气流, 稻纵卷叶螟迁飞种群的集中降落是降雨造成的, 主降区位于雨区边缘的曲江、 紫金、 佛冈等地区, 降雨区的空间分布直接导致了曲江、 南雄地区降虫量的巨大差别; (3)稻纵卷叶螟迁入峰的主要虫源地分布在广东西南部稻区, 6月上旬以阳春为代表的虫源地的双季早稻进入扬花灌浆期 乳熟期, 叶片营养恶化, 稻纵卷叶螟处于成虫盛发期, 存在为粤北大规模迁入提供虫源的可能。  相似文献   

8.
Juniperus ashei pollen, a significant aeroallergen, has been recorded during December and January in Tulsa, Oklahoma, over the past 20 years. The nearest upwind source for this pollen is populations growing in southern Oklahoma and central Texas, at distances of 200 km and 600 km respectively. Long-distance dispersal of J. ashei pollen into the Tulsa area shows a strong correlation with the trajectories of wind blowing across southern populations before traveling north towards eastern Oklahoma. The strong tie between climatic conditions and the occurrence of this aeroallergen within the Tulsa, Oklahoma, atmosphere provided a unique opportunity to forecast the dispersal, entrainment, and downwind deposition of this significant aeroallergen. Forecasts of long-distance J. ashei pollen dispersal began during the winter of 1998/1999. Each forecast uses defined climatic parameters to signal pollination at each source site. Coupled to these estimates of pollen release, forecast weather conditions and modeled wind trajectories are used to determine the threat of dispersal to downwind communities. The accuracy of these forecasts was determined by comparing the forecast "threat" to aerobiological records for the same period collected in the "Tulsa region". Analysis of the two seasons revealed only a single occurrence of "high" or "very high" pollen concentrations in Tulsa not directly linked to "moderate" or "severe" forecast threats from the southern source areas.  相似文献   

9.
Chen X  Zhai B P  Gong R J  Yin M H  Zhang Y  Zhao K J 《农业工程》2008,28(4):1521-1535
The meadow moth, Loxostege sticticalis L., is an important outbreak pest in Northeast China. The spring population in Northeast China was considered as immigrants from North China; however, the population dynamics during 1996–2007 was not consistent with this traditional theory. In this study, the source area of the spring population of the meadow moth in Northeast China was identified by trajectory analysis using the wind field simulated by mesoscale numerical forecast model MM5. The results indicated that the population of the meadow moth in North China was able to migrate into Northeast China, but had not made a crucial contribution to the outbreaks there since the weather systems were generally adverse for such a long range migration in most of the years. On the other hand, high density cocoons of L. sticticalis have frequently been found in autumn in Northeast China since 1996. The trajectory analyses indicated that most of L. sticticalis in Northeast China in spring emerged from the cocoons that had overwintered either locally or in neighboring countries, i.e. Mongolia and Russia. The development of overwintering areas at higher latitudes coincides with the increased frequency of second-generation larvae; both phenomena might be attributed to the regional climate change associated with global warming.  相似文献   

10.
浙江武义2009年南方水稻黑条矮缩病的毒源地分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
2009年, 浙江省境内首次出现南方水稻黑条矮缩病毒(Southern rice black streaked dwarf virus, SRBSDV), 且仅武义县有发病现象。因为该病毒病是一种虫媒病毒, 且白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera (Horváth)是主要传毒介体, 所以本文通过白背飞虱灯下诱虫情况调查、 迁飞轨迹模拟、 天气学背景分析以及毒源地分析, 阐释了2009年浙江省武义县发现的南方水稻黑条矮缩病的供毒源地分布情况, 以及白背飞虱携毒的传递路径, 并讨论了轨迹模拟中各生物学参数的设定方法, 从而为剖析该病毒的宏观流行规律奠定科学基础。结果显示:(1) 通过对白背飞虱迁入武义的主要虫源地与经鉴定的南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病区域的叠加分析, 明确了浙江武义的可能毒源地分布于两广、 闽南、 赣南四省区境内; (2) 西南低空急流及偏南气流是白背飞虱将我国南方的病毒远距离传送到武义县境内的动力源; (3) 白背飞虱随下沉气流和降雨在武义境内的集中降落是南方水稻黑条矮缩病在当地暴发的触发条件。  相似文献   

11.
Migratory raptors rarely fly over stretches of water larger than 25 km, although different species undertake water crossings of varying lengths, depending mainly on their wing morphology. Oriental Honey‐buzzards fly c. 680 km over the East China Sea in autumn from breeding areas in Japan to wintering areas in Southeast Asia, but avoid this long water crossing in spring. We investigated the effects of weather on this exceptional migratory behaviour and its seasonality through a maximum entropy niche modelling approach. We used data collected through satellite tracking of 31 adult birds as presence points and a set of variables related to wind, precipitation and convective condition as environmental predictors. Results of modelling showed very different, almost non‐overlapping, areas suitable for migration over the East China Sea region in autumn and spring. Suitable migration routes in autumn mostly occurred over the sea, whereas suitable areas for spring migration mostly occurred over land, suggesting that circumnavigating the East China Sea is preferable in spring. At the regional scale, wind conditions facilitate water‐crossing behaviour of Oriental Honey‐buzzards in autumn, but not in spring. Specifically, suitable tailwinds over the sea enable water‐crossing in autumn, whereas in spring, wind support and convective conditions are best over land. Our modelling did not suggest any importance of convective conditions for autumn migration. However, we expect that at smaller temporal scales, convective conditions would be a considerable facilitator of the water‐crossing behaviour in this species.  相似文献   

12.
《Journal of Asia》2000,3(1):25-32
Brown planthopper (Nilaparvata Lugens) is a migrant pest which can migrate from tropical area into subtropical and temperate area every year and caused a lot of damage in rice production. To understand the migration process of this pest, the Boundary Layer Atmospheric (BLAYER) model and Geographic Information System (GIS) were used to analyze the migration waves from June to July in 1997, 1998 and 1999 in South Korea. The simulation results showed: 1) Each migration wave had different mass distribution and immigration area at different time; 2) The vertical air current value distributed in BPH taking-off and landing area was about several centimeters per second, which is lower than BPH flight ability. 3) The trajectory route showed that BPH had different migration routes emigrated from different source areas according to the weather system. The main source of BPH immigrated in South Korea was from the East part of Guangdong Province and South East part of Fujian Province, People's Republic of China. 4) Comparing with the different migration heights (733 m, 1,348 m and 1,963 m above ground level), BPH mass distributed more northwestward in low height than in high height. 5) BPH mass movement also gave another evidence to identify the light trap data in late July.  相似文献   

13.
High-quality staging sites are critical for long-distance migratory shorebirds to rest and refuel but are under threat from human development, including expansion of wind energy projects. However, predicting migration timing and movements in relation to weather conditions at staging sites can increase our understanding and mitigate effects of wind turbine collisions. Here we assessed northward migration timing and orientation in relation to environmental conditions at an inland staging area in Saskatchewan, Canada, with active and proposed wind energy developments. The area is known to host ~25% of North America's Sanderling Calidris alba population and 16 other Arctic-breeding migrant shorebird species. We quantified arrival and departure time of day in relation to weather using data from 140 of 237 Sanderlings radiotagged locally and at a southern staging site in the Gulf of Mexico with the Motus Wildlife Tracking System (April–June, 2015–2017). Although Sanderling arrival times were not related to time of day or weather, departures were more likely at sunset in winds blowing towards the northwest at intermediate speeds (<22 km/h). Departure flights were also primarily oriented north-northwest in the direction of a proposed wind energy development site at a mean ground speed of 21.4 m/s. Based on published climb rates and flight speed data, we estimated that shorebirds needed between 2 and 14 km setback distance to clear maximum turbine heights of 165 m. Given that departure events were predictable in time and space, adaptive mitigation may be useful for planning wind energy developments while reducing risk for staging Arctic-breeding shorebirds.  相似文献   

14.
Estimation for an island model where mutation maintains ak-allele neutral polymorphism at a single locus on each island is considered. The likelihood of an observed sample type configuration is obtained by applying a computational algorithm analogous to Griffiths and Tavaré (Theor. Popul. Biol.46(1994), 131–159). This allows the computation of sampling distributions in an island model and investigation of their properties. Given a sample type configuration, the maximum likelihood estimate of the migration parameter is obtained by simulating independently the likelihood at a grid of points and, also, using a surface simulation method. The latter method generates the whole likelihood trajectory in a single application of the simulation program. An estimate of variance of the estimate of the migration parameter is obtained using the likelihood trajectory. A comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates of the gene flow between subpopulations is made with those obtained by using Wright'sFSTstatistic.  相似文献   

15.
通过2009,2010年春季对江淮地区安徽凤台麦田及灯诱灰飞虱Laodelphax striatellus(Fallén)种群的系统调查和雌虫卵巢的系统解剖,明确了本地越冬后灰飞虱的种群性质,作为灰飞虱能否迁飞的判据;运用美国NOAA网站的HYSPLIT平台对本地的迁入高峰做了数值模拟和虫源分析。结果表明:(1)江淮稻区灰飞虱麦田种群的迁移动态为远距离迁飞与本地扩散相结合;(2)在本地范围内,灰飞虱的本地繁殖型长翅成虫于麦收前可从麦田向秧田迁移扩散,在不利于长翅成虫起飞进行远距离迁飞的天气条件,如降雨、大风等的影响下,麦田迁飞型种群可向附近的秧田扩散;(3)灯诱与田间长翅雌虫卵巢解剖表明本地2010年6月5日和12日出现迁入虫群;虫源轨迹分析显示2010年6月5日迁入虫峰来自苏中的扬州地区,6月12日迁入虫源来自鲁南济宁地区。  相似文献   

16.
The dates of the beginning and end of the spring migration of P. humuli, as monitored by the Rothamsted Insect Survey suction traps at Wye College and Rosemaund Experimental Husbandry Farm, were linearly regressed on temperature, rainfall and sunshine for varying periods. The beginning of migration at both sites was associated with temperature in late March and early April, and periods of rainfall in mid-January and mid-April, while the end of migration was associated with temperature and sunshine in mid- and late June, and with mid-January rainfall. These regression equations were used to predict the timing of the migration in 1980 and 1981, those for mean maximum temperature predicting most accurately both the beginning and end of migration. The use of multiple regression equations did not increase the accuracy of predictions. The critical periods of weather are discussed in the context of the life-cycle of the aphid.  相似文献   

17.
Many animals seasonally travel between their breeding and wintering grounds. With their advanced mobility, birds often migrate over thousands of kilometres. Recently, satellite-tracking studies have revealed peculiar migration routes for some avian species at a global scale. However, the adaptability of such migration routes has not been clearly demonstrated. Using satellite-tracking data for 33 individuals, we show that the Japanese population of Oriental honey-buzzards (Pernis ptilorhynchus) directly crosses the 650-km-wide East China Sea during their autumn migration, although they fly a longer route around the sea rather than directly crossing it during their spring migration. By applying aerodynamic theory, we show that the buzzards could cross the sea by soaring and gliding flight. Moreover, using a high-resolution meteorological-prediction analysis, we demonstrate that the migratory trajectory of the birds strongly depends on the wind direction at their estimated locations. In the area, northeastern tailwinds blow stably only during autumn. Thermals were abundant ca. 500–1,000 m over the East China Sea in autumn, but that was not the case in spring. We suggest that the autumn-migration route across the East China Sea is likely to have evolved in response to the specific weather conditions over the sea. Animations showing movements of Oriental honey-buzzards and temporal change in weather conditions are available at: , , , , , and .  相似文献   

18.
Weather conditions recorded from 1956 to 1986 on St. Paul Island, Alaska, were probed to establish their influence upon the northern fur seal's life cycle ( Callorhinus ursinus ). Air temperatures, wind speeds, and relative humidity levels were seasonally decomposed and compared with the timing of pupping and migration. Most pups are born in early July when air temperatures and relative humidity approach their highest annual levels and wind speeds are at their lowest. Weather conditions favor growth and survival of pups from July to September but are unfavorable in June. A rapid deterioration in weather through October and November corresponds with the fall migration of pups and lactating females. The data suggest the pivotal event in the fur seal's life cycle is the timing of birth and survival of nursing pups. As such, the ultimate determinant of the precisely timed fur seal life cycle appears to be climatic seasonality during the breeding season.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract: The genus Nothofagus in New Zealand and Australia exhibits strong mast seeding (i.e. highly variable seed crops between years). Seed crop variation is synchronized within and between species over large spatial scales, and results in greatly increased wind pollination efficiency which could provide a selective benefit favouring the maintenance of mast seeding. However, the null hypothesis (that plants simply match their reproductive effort to the variable resources available each year) has not been tested in Nothofagus. Here we use a 33‐year dataset on seedfall and wood ring increments for 19 individual Nothofagus truncata trees at Orongorongo, New Zealand, to test for the presence of switching (exaggeration of seedfall variability by diverting resources into, then out of, reproduction). A generalized least squares model explained 40.7% of the variance in standardized ring widths, using six weather variables (absolute minimum temperatures in March (lag 0) April (lag 0 and lag 1), May (lag 0) and rainfall in November and February (lag 0) ) and seedfall. Seedfall had a negative relationship with the current year's ring widths even after controlling for all significant weather variables. This shows that switching is occurring in N. truncata within individuals among years, and therefore that masting in this species is the result of selective forces such as increased wind pollination efficiency. As this result has been demonstrated for very few masting species, we call for this test to be applied more widely.  相似文献   

20.
中国稻纵卷叶螟发生特点及北迁的大气背景   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
稻纵卷叶螟因其发生面积大、暴发频率高、致害程度重而成为我国水稻生产上的重要害虫。为了阐明大气背景对其北迁重大过程的影响,利用2000—2012年中国稻纵卷叶螟灯诱数据分析了我国水稻主产区稻纵卷叶螟迁入的主要特征;选取2007年7月下旬的一次重大北迁过程作为典型个例,运用中尺度天气研究和预报模式WRF,结合NCEP气象再分析资料,模拟了这一过程的大气背景,推算了稻纵卷叶螟的迁飞轨迹,并分析了大气背景对稻纵卷叶螟灾变性迁入的影响。研究表明:(1)这13年中,我国稻纵卷叶螟的迁入大多在3月初始见,3—8月为北迁期,从南到北先后在华南、西南、江岭、江淮稻区出现迁入峰;9—11月为南迁期,从北到南先后迁入江淮、江岭、华南稻区并出现相应的迁入峰,10月底至11月初为终见期。(2)北迁个例中各站逆推轨迹分析显示:包括再迁飞在内的不同时段虫源地基本上位于降虫区的西南方,迁飞高度都变化于550—850 m之间,但在沿海地区降落的稻纵卷叶螟迁飞轨迹是复杂的。(3)水平气流是稻纵卷叶螟远距离北迁的主要运载动力,925 h Pa上南方稻区一致的偏南气流对稻纵卷叶螟北迁极为有利;三维流场的起伏、特别是垂直气流的强弱变化对迁飞高度的变化起重要的作用。(4)下沉气流和降水是稻纵卷叶螟降落的关键动力因素,两者都对降虫有明显影响。(5)在这一北迁过程中,稻纵卷叶螟种群多降落在相对湿度大的区域,降虫区的相对湿度均在75%以上。  相似文献   

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