元江-李仙江流域亚洲象生境适宜性评价——基于荟萃分析和遥感大数据分析

生境适宜性评价是物种保护和生境管理与规划的基础。近几十年来，云南境内野生亚洲象数量剧增，外扩迁移事件频发，而新迁入区域生境适宜状况因物种出现点数据缺乏而难以评价，掣肘迁移亚洲象保护与风险防范应急。以亚洲象新近迁入的元江-李仙江流域为案例区，采用荟萃分析统计亚洲象生境评价因子，结合相关性分析和方差膨胀因子独立性检验，筛选出生境评价因子；基于开源遥感数据产品量化生境因子，综合主成分分析和层次分析计算生境评价因子权重，采用生境适宜性指数(Habitat Suitability Index, HSI)模型评价元江-李仙江流域亚洲象生境适宜性，并分析其景观格局。结果表明：(1)元江-李仙江流域亚洲象生境适宜性空间格局主要表现为由下游至上游呈递减趋势，最适生境主要分布于流域下游段，而流域上游段适宜生境少；(2)元江流域生境适宜性低于李仙江流域，且其生境斑块连接度更低、破碎化更严重；(3)2021年“北移象群”北迁沿程生境适宜性由西南向东北呈下降趋势。基于亚洲象生境适宜性评价结果，科学引导野生亚洲象迁入适宜生境区，以规避人象冲突，保障外迁亚洲象群及其活动区居民生命财产安全，服务于区域生物多样性保护与...     

黑龙江省老爷岭南部穆棱林区马鹿种群分布数量及生境适宜性评价

开展野生动物种群分布数量和生境适宜性评价研究是制定物种科学保护决策的基础和关键。以东北马鹿(Cervus canadensis xanthopygus)为研究对象,于2015—2020年在黑龙江省老爷岭南部穆棱林区,采用大样方调查方法收集马鹿在雪地留下的足迹信息分析马鹿种群数量;通过相机监测、足迹链跟踪和大样方调查3种方法综合收集马鹿活动点信息,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)建模分析马鹿生境适宜性。马鹿种群分布数量研究结果表明,穆棱林区马鹿种群密度为(0.0645±0.009)只/km~2,种群数量为47—61只,主要分布在研究地区南部的和平、龙爪沟和共和林场。生境分析结果表明：人为干扰因子中,居民区对MaxEnt模型的贡献率为44%,马鹿主要在距居民区距离约5 km和10—15 km的区域活动,在偏僻的林间小道和乡村道路马鹿生境适宜性较高,其对模型贡献率分别为16.8%和10.2%;植被因子中,在距常绿针叶林和针阔混交林距离4 km范围内,随距离增加马鹿生境适宜性逐渐降低。生境适宜性分析结果表明,研究地区马鹿适宜生境和次适宜生境面积为87.09 km~2,仅占研究区域的10.39%,主要...     

基于MaxEnt模型的秦岭山地斑羚生境适宜性评价

生境适宜性评价对野生动物的保护与管理具有重要意义。为了解陕西秦岭地区斑羚(Naemorhedus griseus)的生境状况,利用2011—2013年间在秦岭地区采集的斑羚分布点数据,通过MaxEnt模型对陕西秦岭地区的斑羚生境进行适宜性评价。结果表明,陕西秦岭地区的斑羚适宜生境面积约为9800 km~2,占秦岭山地面积的17%,主要位于秦岭中西部区域;次适宜生境面积约为6940 km~2,占秦岭面积的12%,主要位于适宜生境的周边区域。海拔、月均昼夜温差和年降雨量是影响陕西秦岭地区斑羚生境适宜性的主要环境变量,而人类干扰对生境适宜性的影响较小。陕西秦岭地区的斑羚偏好于选择1800—3000 m的中高海拔区间、年降水量为750—850 mm、月均昼夜温差8℃左右的环境。明确了斑羚适宜生境在秦岭的分布状况及关键环境影响因子,可为下一步制定濒危动物保护和生境管理提供理论依据。     

南滚河流域土地利用变化对亚洲象生境的影响

土地利用变化对亚洲象生境影响显著,明晰其影响机制是有效保护亚洲象的前提。为探明土地利用变化对亚洲象生境影响的时空过程及机制,以亚洲象残存的中-缅跨境流域-南滚河流域为例,在1988和2018年两期Landsat土地利用/土地覆被遥感分类图的基础上,采用LandTrendr算法检测30年间流域土地利用变化引起的天然林扰动,结合生态位因子分析（ENFA）模型评定的亚洲象生境适宜性分布,探究以天然林扰动为主的土地利用变化对亚洲象生境的影响。结果表明：（1）1988-2018年间,南滚河流域土地利用变化主要为天然林转化为其他地类,且天然林扰动强度在中、缅境内差异明显;（2）以橡胶种植扩张导致毁林为主的土地利用变化造成南滚河流域亚洲象生境萎缩,生境斑块间连通性降低,破碎化程度较高;（3）该流域亚洲象生境丧失过程表现为由边缘向内部逐渐被蚕食,适宜生境最终被分割为上、下游两个相互孤立的子区域。因此,抑制以橡胶林为主的热作种植扩张,恢复上、下游生境连通性,建立流域尺度的跨境保护区,是实现南滚河流域亚洲象种群保护和缓解人象冲突的重要途径。     

基于多源遥感的贵州草海国家级自然保护区黑颈鹤生境适宜性评价

生境适宜性评价是保护和管理濒危物种的重要途径。已有研究中用于物种生境适宜性评价的环境变量数据多存在分辨率低精度不高的问题,在研究小尺度物种生境适宜性时误差较大。为解决这一问题,本文根据黑颈鹤的出现点数据与光学、雷达遥感数据及地形辅助数据得出栖息地与觅食地特征,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型对草海越冬黑颈鹤细尺度的生境适宜性进行评价。结果显示：(1)运用多源遥感和地形辅助数据生成的环境变量结合MaxEnt预测黑颈鹤的栖息地与觅食地效果都较为优秀,两者受使用者工作特征曲线下的面积值(AUC)值均大于0.94;(2)距耕地距离、距水域距离、水深及距建筑距离是影响黑颈鹤栖息地主要环境因子,而影响觅食地分布的主要环境因子则是距耕地距离、优势植被、距建筑物距离和水深。(3)草海自然保护区黑颈鹤栖息地与觅食地的最适宜区和次适宜区面积较小,栖息地与觅食地最、次适宜区总和分别为6.404km~2与12.644 km~2,占比仅为研究区的6.43%和12.69%。通过调查发现,当前自然保护区的人为干扰源主要是游客和当地的居民,潜在地威胁着黑颈鹤的栖息地和觅食地。因此,为了避免保护区黑颈鹤栖息地与觅食地的退...     

基于生境适宜性指数模型的俚岛海黍子生境层级分布

为了深入了解海黍子生境,利用模型对山东俚岛海黍子生境进行适宜性分析,分别选取温度、盐度、水深、浊度、底质、无机氮浓度、磷酸盐浓度和距海藻床距离8种环境因子,通过层次分析法赋值因子权重,结合空间分析方法建立了海黍子HSI模型。利用该模型对山东俚岛近岸海域2018年春、秋两季的环境因子调查结果进行了海黍子生境分析。结果表明: 研究区域内的海黍子海藻床区域主要由极佳生境和适宜生境组成,春季和秋季的分布面积分别占14.2%和18.6%。海黍子生境层级分布随季节而变化,且不同季节的生境层级具有一定的空间重合性。温度和磷酸盐浓度的适宜性变化具有明显的季节性差异,是导致俚岛海黍子HSI季节变化的主要原因。海黍子HSI模型不仅可用于检测海黍子海藻床区域的生境层级分布,还能发现海黍子潜在的适宜生境区域。这为今后开展海黍子资源保护和人工增殖工作提供了科学参考。     

阿拉善马鹿(Cervus alashanicus)生境适宜性评价

阿拉善马鹿(Cervus alashanicus)目前仅分布于贺兰山地区,对该物种进行生境适宜性的评价和分析是物种有效保护的前提和基础。2013—2014年通过样线调查及巡山资料查询,确定阿拉善马鹿出现位点86个,结合13种环境变量数据,利用最大熵(maximum entropy,MaxEnt)模型,并根据最大约登指数划定适宜与不适宜生境区,对贺兰山地区阿拉善马鹿的生境适宜性进行评价。ROC曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve)检测证明模型预测精度较高,研究结果表明:阿拉善马鹿主要分布于贺兰山东坡的中部和南部,以及西坡的中北部,适宜生境面积为667.87 km~2,占研究区域面积的18.2%;矿区、坡度和海拔是影响阿拉善马鹿分布的最主要环境变量,矿区对阿拉善马鹿的影响最大,建议管理部门加大对此人为干扰的管控力度,控制和减少现有矿区的规模,以促进该种群的发展。     

新疆塔什库尔干野生动物自然保护区马可波罗盘羊生境适宜性评价

马可波罗盘羊是帕米尔高原的代表性物种,开展生境适宜性评价对于该物种的保护与管理具有重要意义。综合考虑植被、地形等影响马可波罗盘羊生境选择的关键因子,以及道路和牧场等人为干扰因子,借助ArcGIS,构建生境适宜性指数模型,在不同尺度上评价分析马可波罗盘羊的生境适宜性及其季节变化特征。结果表明:15836 km~2保护区内马可波罗盘羊夏季潜在适宜生境面积为2127.19 km~2,冬季为1915.70 km~2。保护区西北部面积3767.73 km~2的马可波罗盘羊实际分布区内,夏季潜在适宜生境面积为1095.48 km~2,冬季为1072.82 km~2,马可波罗盘羊适宜生境集中分布于保护区内该物种实际分布区。受人为干扰,保护区内马可波罗盘羊夏季和冬季实际适宜生境丧失率分别为18.43%和17.78%,实际分布区内适宜生境丧失率分别为33.65%和29.73%,表明实际分布区马可波罗盘羊适宜生境受人类活动影响较大,应予以重点保护。总体而言,影响马可波罗盘羊生境适宜性的关键因素是国道314和放牧。基于上述研究结果,作者提出了4点关于马可波罗盘羊生境保护,以及保护区管理与规划的建议与思考。     

小黑山岛海域刺参、魁蚶和紫贻贝生境适宜性分析

以小黑山岛临近海域为研究对象,利用生境适宜性指数(habitat suitability index,HSI)模型选划适宜刺参(Stichopus japonicas)、魁蚶(Scapharca broughtonii)和紫贻贝(Mytilus edulis)增殖修复的区域。分别针对每个修复物种筛选出7个生境评价因子,结合专家赋值法和层次分析法确定每个评价因子的权重,利用GIS空间分析模块将现状调查数据进行插值、重分类和栅格计算,绘制研究区域目标种群生境适宜性地图。结果表明:对于刺参和紫贻贝,研究区域均适宜其生长繁殖,同一物种,相同季节在空间上无站位差异,但各季节的生境适宜性分区变化明显;对于魁蚶来说,东北部海域较适宜增殖,其次为西部海域,四季均以较适宜生境为主,仅冬季出现基本适宜生境。水温是造成季节差异的主要因素,底质类型则是引起生境站位差异的重要原因。可为后续的生物多样性保育和生态修复提供基础资料参考。     

水菜花种群潜在生境选择与空间格局预测

国家二级保护野生植物水菜花(Ottelia cordata)，喜生于清洁的水环境中，对环境变化极为敏感，是检验湿地环境及气候变化的关键指示物种之一，在我国仅零星分布于海南北部的火山熔岩湿地区，生存状况不容乐观。研究水菜花种群潜在生境选择及其空间格局演变，有利于加强濒危物种保护保育及湿地生态系统修复、管理。该研究基于GIS平台和MaxEnt模型，结合气候、地形和土壤因子，探究水菜花种群环境限制因子及其在气候变化背景下潜在适宜生境的演变格局。结果表明，水菜花种群对温差与降水量变化敏感，等温性、最冷季度降水量、土壤类型和年均降水量对水菜花种群分布影响显著；全新世中期-当前-2070年气候变化背景下，水菜花适宜生境面积先减小后增大，分布重心呈西南-东北-西南转移格局；未来气候情景下，水菜花种群高度和中度适宜生境缩减，低适宜生境增加，南部地区将出现新增适宜生境，东北、西北及西南部适宜生境将发生消减。该研究从气候环境角度论证了水菜花种群的潜在生境选择及空间变化特征，可为濒危物种保护保育、湿地管理及其生物多样性维护工作提供参考和指导。     

西双版纳国家级自然保护区勐腊子保护区亚洲象种群和栖息地评价

通过社区村寨访问、监测网络、痕迹追踪和生态位因子分析(ENFA)等方法对西双版纳国家级自然保护区勐腊子保护区内亚洲象的种群和栖息地状况进行研究。结果显示:2007年勐腊子保护区的亚洲象种群数量约为25—32头,2009年其数量增至35—42头;2006—2007年期间,亚洲象的分布区包含保护区东南部和东部的两片区域,面积共221 km2,占保护区总面积的19.2%;象群在分布区内开辟了固定的活动路线,总长约65 km,它们利用这些路线巡回取食天然植物和农作物并导致严重的人象冲突;栖息地评价研究表明亚洲象对栖息地具有一定的选择偏好性,保护区内亚洲象喜好的栖息地面积为328.5 km2,仅占保护区总面积的28.5%,且主要被分为两大斑块1和2,分别位于保护区的东南部和西北部。     

西双版纳勐海县勐阿水库对亚洲象迁移活动和人—象冲突的潜在影响

2020年1—12月,采用半结构式访查法、痕迹跟踪调查法和无人机跟踪调查法相结合的方法,对拟建西双版纳勐海县勐阿水库涉及区域的亚洲象种群结构、迁移路线等进行了调查,并采用样方法和3S技术对该区域亚洲象取食植物和栖息地适宜性进行了调查和分析,以探讨拟建勐阿水库可能对亚洲象迁移活动和人—象冲突的潜在影响。结果表明：(1)拟建勐阿水库区域活动的亚洲象小种群被称为澜沧江西部种群或西双版纳勐海—普洱澜沧种群,仅由19头亚洲象(10头雄性,9头雌性)组成,有2条亚洲象迁移路线穿越该区域;(2)在研究区域共统计到亚洲象取食植物12目19科32属33种,基本能满足该象群的取食需求;(3)海拔、坡度、植被隐蔽度及食物资源等生态因子的适宜性分析结果显示,大部分区域(包括占总面积14.61%的最适生境和占总面积82.05%的相对适宜生境)都能满足该亚洲象小种群的基本生活需求;(4)2条亚洲象迁移路线中的1条将因水库建设而阻断,迫使该象群改变原来的迁移路线;(5)水库淹没区的植被将被永久破坏,原本连片的适宜栖息地也将受到进一步切割和压缩影响;(6)当食物资源无法满足亚洲象生存需求时,它们可能会选择进入可在较短时间内获得大量食物的农耕区取食农作物和经济作物,随着人流、车流大量增加,亚洲象与人相遇的概率也会大幅度增加。分析认为,拟建勐阿水库将淹没1条迁移通道,对亚洲象迁移活动造成阻碍,迫使象群改变路线,还可能导致更为严重的人—象冲突。建议在水库工程设计和建设过程中采取有效的保护管理措施,减少工程项目对亚洲象种群及其栖息地的负面影响;水库建设和管理部门、林业和草原管理部门等应加强对亚洲象活动的监测和预警,避免亚洲象肇事造成人员伤亡和更大的经济损失。     

Quantity and Configuration of Available Elephant Habitat and Related Conservation Concerns in the Lower Kinabatangan Floodplain of Sabah,Malaysia

The approximately 300 (298, 95% CI: 152–581) elephants in the Lower Kinabatangan Managed Elephant Range in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo are a priority sub-population for Borneo''s total elephant population (2,040, 95% CI: 1,184–3,652). Habitat loss and human-elephant conflict are recognized as the major threats to Bornean elephant survival. In the Kinabatangan region, human settlements and agricultural development for oil palm drive an intense fragmentation process. Electric fences guard against elephant crop raiding but also remove access to suitable habitat patches. We conducted expert opinion-based least-cost analyses, to model the quantity and configuration of available suitable elephant habitat in the Lower Kinabatangan, and called this the Elephant Habitat Linkage. At 184 km², our estimate of available habitat is 54% smaller than the estimate used in the State''s Elephant Action Plan for the Lower Kinabatangan Managed Elephant Range (400 km²). During high flood levels, available habitat is reduced to only 61 km². As a consequence, short-term elephant densities are likely to surge during floods to 4.83 km⁻² (95% CI: 2.46–9.41), among the highest estimated for forest-dwelling elephants in Asia or Africa. During severe floods, the configuration of remaining elephant habitat and the surge in elephant density may put two villages at elevated risk of human-elephant conflict. Lower Kinabatangan elephants are vulnerable to the natural disturbance regime of the river due to their limited dispersal options. Twenty bottlenecks less than one km wide throughout the Elephant Habitat Linkage, have the potential to further reduce access to suitable habitat. Rebuilding landscape connectivity to isolated habitat patches and to the North Kinabatangan Managed Elephant Range (less than 35 km inland) are conservation priorities that would increase the quantity of available habitat, and may work as a mechanism to allow population release, lower elephant density, reduce human-elephant conflict, and enable genetic mixing.     

基于InVEST-图论模型的西双版纳州亚洲象生境网络评价

在大力推进生物多样性保护工作的背景下,亚洲象的活动范围与人类生产生活空间不断重叠,人象冲突矛盾日益严重,对物种栖息地生境网络进行优化能从源头缓解这一矛盾。在亚洲象国家公园建设之际,研究以西双版纳州为例,提出了一种基于InVEST-图论复合模型识别并优化生境网络的方法:即以土地利用数据为基础,结合亚洲象生活习性与栖息地偏好,通过海拔、坡度、距水源距离3个约束因子矫正生境质量数据,运用Graphab软件识别潜在生境网络,结合最小累积阻力模型理念与景观图论的分析方法,从"源地-廊道"角度定量化分析西双版纳州国家级亚洲象保护区的保护空缺,探讨保护区的空间布局优化策略与生境分级保护策略,以期为亚洲象国家公园的建设与西双版纳州国土空间规划提供新视角。结果表明,西双版纳州共识别出生态源地335个,总面积4595.60km²,总体上高质量生境分布较为均衡,连通性较好的生境网络集中分布在北部与东部区域,中部B4勐仑片区存在较为显著的生态孤岛现象,西南部高质量生境斑块小而破碎,联系紧密但缺少作为核心栖息地的大面积生境。保护空缺方面,国家级保护区范围内的生态源地仅占总源地面积的31.68%,大型保护空缺集中分布于B3勐养片区东北部;优化后的生境网络能形成以B3勐养片区为核心,以国家自然保护区为主的"B5-A-B3-B4-B1-B2"生物迁徙廊道。     

普洱市亚洲象栖息地适宜度评价

亚洲象(Elephas maximus)属于我国Ⅰ级保护动物,在中国仅分布于云南省西双版纳国家级自然保护区、普洱市的思茅区、澜沧县和江城县,以及临沧南滚河国家级自然保护区。将普洱全境作为研究区域,利用野外调查数据,结合遥感与地理信息系统技术,运用生态位因子分析(ENFA)模型对普洱市亚洲象的栖息地适宜度进行了评价,并预测了适宜栖息地的分布。发现:普洱市亚洲象栖息地的边际值为0.991,表明亚洲象在普洱市境内对环境变量的选择不是随机的;耐受值为0.315,表明亚洲象在普洱市境内生态位较窄,受环境条件的制约。根据模型计算得到的栖息地适宜度指数,将普洱市的亚洲象栖息地分为最适栖息地,较适栖息地,边际栖息地和非栖息地4个等级,面积分别为409.32、574.32、2909.48、38722.32 km2。最适栖息地仅占全市面积的0.96%,而非栖息地占90.86%。利用GIS和Biomapper 4.0生成亚洲象栖息地分布图,发现普洱境内最适栖息地和较适栖息地面积狭小。对最适栖息地、较适栖息地和边际栖息地进行景观格局分析的结果表明,3种类型的栖息地破碎化均十分严重,连通度较低,栖息地内受到较大程度的人类活动的干扰。因此建议在普洱和西双版纳间尽快建立野生动物生态廊道,以加强亚洲象各种群间的交流。     

Urban expansion and infrastructure development reduce habitat suitability for Asian elephants in southwestern China

Conservation interventions for threatened species must be based on accurate assessments of the effects of anthropogenic pressures on habitat suitability. We used multiscale multivariable species-distribution modeling to evaluate habitat suitability for an Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) population in Shangyong Reserve, Yunnan Province, southwestern China. We investigated the scales at which measurements of environmental variables best reflected elephant habitat selection, and examined whether these responses changed over 2 decades (2000–2010 and 2011–2020) in response to 20 environmental variables, including 14 variables reflecting landscape fragmentation, the extent of buildings, and transport infrastructure. Elephant presence was sensitive to the scale of each variable, and the effects differed among variables within and between decades. More than half of the variables influenced elephant presence at coarse scales of 8 or 16 km, including 12 variables reflecting anthropogenic pressures in 2000–2010 and 10 in 2011–2020. Overall, multivariate models with variables at their optimal scales had higher discrimination than models at uniformly fine scales of 1 km or 2 km. The extent of suitable habitat for elephants declined by 24% over 2 decades. Less than half of elephant habitat was located within Shangyong Reserve (49% in 2000–2010, 40% in 2011–2020), indicating the importance of managing suitable habitat beyond reserve boundaries. Roads and buildings reduced the probability of elephant presence, with effects that extended beyond their immediate footprint. We advocate that infrastructure be planned with buffers, ≥8 km wide, between roads or buildings and core elephant habitat. Multiscale multivariable species-distribution modeling should be employed to ensure that all suitable habitat for the remaining fragmented elephant populations in Yunnan is identified, mapped, and protected.     

Human settlement drives African elephant (Loxodonta africana) movement in the Sebungwe Region,Zimbabwe

Understanding the key drivers that influence the potential distribution of herbivore species in changing landscapes has been at the centre of enquiry in wildlife science for many decades. This knowledge is particularly important for keystone species like the African elephant (Loxodonta africana) whose population is declining even in conservation areas. The Sebungwe Region is part of the Kavango‐Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area and supports ~4,000 elephants. The Sebungwe Region has lost an estimated 76% of its elephant population over the years. This study aimed to determine how the elephant distribution in the Sebungwe Region was affected by human settlement and whether the patches for elephant distribution were large enough for elephant habitation. The prediction of the potential distribution of the elephant was based on presence‐only data modelled through an ensemble algorithm that combined several candidate models to enhance predictive ability. We observed that human settlement drives the potential distribution of elephants in the Sebungwe Region (test AUC = 0.95), and patches from the model were on average <1.5 km². Our results provide initial insights into the key habitat factors that drive distribution of elephants in the Sebungwe landscape. Future conservation of the elephant could benefit from our study through systematic planning of settlements, which might help minimise human interaction with wildlife.     

Using presence‐only modelling to predict Asian elephant habitat use in a tropical forest landscape: implications for conservation

Aim Asian elephants, Elephas maximus, are threatened throughout their range by a combination of logging, large scale forest conversion and conflict with humans. We investigate which environmental factors, both biotic and abiotic, constrain the current distribution of elephants. A spatially explicit habitat model is constructed to find core areas for conservation and to assess current threats. Location Ulu Masen Ecosystem in the province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia. Methods A stratified survey was conducted at 12 sites (300 transects) to establish the presence of elephants. Presence records formed the basis to model potential habitat use. Ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) is used to describe their niche and to identify key factors shaping elephant distribution. An initial niche model was constructed to describe elephant niche structure, and a second model focused on identifying core areas only. To assess the threat of habitat encroachment, overlap between the elephants’ optimal niche and the occurrence of forest encroachment is computed. Results Elephants were recorded throughout the study area from sea level to 1600 m a.s.l. The results show that the elephant niche and consequently habitat use markedly deviates from the available environment. Elephant presence was positively related to forest cover and vegetation productivity, and elephants were largely confined to valleys. A spatially explicit model showed that elephants mainly utilize forest edges. Forest encroachment occurs throughout the elephants range and was found within 80% of the elephants’ ecological niche. Main conclusions In contrast to general opinion, elephant distribution proved to be weakly constrained by altitude, possibly because of movement routes running through mountainous areas. Elephants were often found to occupy habitat patches in and near human‐dominated areas. This pattern is believed to reflect the displacement of elephants from their former habitat.