水平扫描技术及其在生态学中的应用前景

水平扫描是一项在计算科学、工程和医学等领域被广泛应用的技术,其原理即是对潜在的新兴事物、威胁、机遇和技术体系进行系统检查。该技术自2008年被引入生态学领域以来,迅速在生物多样性和生态安全监管研究中展现出广阔的应用潜力。水平扫描技术不仅有助于政府决策层与管理机构积极面对各种在未来难以预测的生态环境风险,进而在制定和实施与生态环境检测和保护等相关的政策措施时更加谨慎、全面和有据可依,而且能够提升政府和环保部门应对与生态环境变化密切相关的重大突发性事件的能力。目前,我国在利用水平扫描进行生态环境风险评估、生物多样性保护和生物安全检测等领域的应用研究或报道还处于空白。在全球化导致重大生态环境事件突发风险日益增加的背景下,国内的生态学研究机构和团队可优先在外来物种入侵监管、重大地质灾害、环境生态安全和生物多样性丧失这四个领域进行水平扫描研究,以应对当前日益严峻的生态环境保护形势。     

Identifying the Science and Technology Dimensions of Emerging Public Policy Issues through Horizon Scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.     

A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity.     

A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012

Our aim in conducting annual horizon scans is to identify issues that, although currently receiving little attention, may be of increasing importance to the conservation of biological diversity in the future. The 15 issues presented here were identified by a diverse team of 22 experts in horizon scanning, and conservation science and its application. Methods for identifying and refining issues were the same as in two previous annual scans and are widely transferable to other disciplines. The issues highlight potential changes in climate, technology and human behaviour. Examples include warming of the deep sea, increased cultivation of perennial grains, burning of Arctic tundra, and the development of nuclear batteries and hydrokinetic in-stream turbines.     

Identifying potentially invasive non‐native marine and brackish water species for the Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman

Invasive non‐native species (NNS) are internationally recognized as posing a serious threat to global biodiversity, economies and human health. The identification of invasive NNS is already established, those that may arrive in the future, their vectors and pathways of introduction and spread, and hotspots of invasion are important for a targeted approach to managing introductions and impacts at local, regional and global scales. The aim of this study was to identify which marine and brackish NNS are already present in marine systems of the northeastern Arabia area (Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman) and of these which ones are potentially invasive, and which species have a high likelihood of being introduced in the future and negatively affect biodiversity. Overall, 136 NNS were identified, of which 56 are already present in the region and a further 80 were identified as likely to arrive in the future, including fish, tunicates, invertebrates, plants and protists. The Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS‐ISK) was used to identify the risk of NNS being (or becoming) invasive within the region. Based on the AS‐ISK basic risk assessment (BRA) thresholds, 36 extant and 37 horizon species (53.7% of all species) were identified as high risk. When the impact of climate change on the overall assessment was considered, the combined risk score (BRA+CCA) increased for 38.2% of all species, suggesting higher risk under warmer conditions, including the highest‐risk horizon NNS the green crab Carcinus maenas, and the extant macro‐alga Hypnea musciformis. This is the first horizon‐scanning exercise for NNS in the region, thus providing a vital baseline for future management. The outcome of this study is the prioritization of NNS to inform decision‐making for the targeted monitoring and management in the region to prevent new bio‐invasions and to control existing species, including their potential for spread.     

Invasive non‐native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region

The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non‐native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non‐native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non‐native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.     

A Comparison of Walking Rates Between Wild and Zoo African Elephants

With increased scrutiny surrounding the welfare of elephants in zoological institutions, it is important to have empirical evidence on their current welfare status. If elephants are not receiving adequate exercise, it could lead to obesity, which can lead to many issues including acyclicity and potentially heart disease. The goal of the current study was to compare the walking rates of elephants in the wild versus elephants in zoos to determine if elephants are walking similar distances relative to their wild counterparts. Eleven wild elephants throughout different habitats and locations in Botswana were compared to 8 elephants at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park. Direct comparisons revealed no significant difference in average walking rates of zoo elephants when compared with wild elephants. These results suggest that elephants at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park walk similar rates to those of wild elephants and may be meeting their exercise needs.     

Ideas about control of skeletal and cardiac muscle blood flow (1876-2003): cycles of revision and new vision.

This perspective examines origins of some key ideas central to major issues to be addressed in five subsequent mini-reviews related to Skeletal and Cardiac Muscle Blood Flow. The questions discussed are as follows. 1). What causes vasodilation in skeletal and cardiac muscle and 2). might the mechanisms be the same in both? 3). How important is muscle's mechanical contribution (via muscle pumping) to muscle blood flow, including its effect on cardiac output? 4). Is neural (vasoconstrictor) control of muscle vascular conductance and muscle blood flow significantly blunted in exercise by muscle metabolites and what might be a dominant site of action? 5). What reflexes initiate neural control of muscle vascular conductance so as to maintain arterial pressure at its baroreflex operating point during dynamic exercise, or is muscle blood flow regulated so as to prevent accumulation of metabolites and an ensuing muscle chemoreflex or both?     

Measurement of exercise-induced oxidative stress in lymphocytes

Vigorous exercise is associated with oxidative stress, a state that involves modifications to bodily molecules due to release of pro-oxidant species. Assessment of such modifications provides non-specific measures of oxidative stress in human tissues and blood, including circulating lymphocytes. Lymphocytes are a very heterogeneous group of white blood cells, consisting of subtypes that have different functions in immunity. Importantly, exercise drastically changes the lymphocyte composition in blood by increasing the numbers of some subsets, while leaving other cells unaffected. This fact may imply that observed changes in oxidative stress markers are confounded by changes in lymphocyte composition. For example, lymphocyte subsets may differ in exposure to oxidative stress because of subset differences in cell division and the acquisition of cytotoxic effector functions. The aim of the present review is to raise awareness of interpretational issues related to the assessment of oxidative stress in lymphocytes with exercise and to address the relevance of lymphocyte subset phenotyping in these contexts.     

Pandemic policy and planning considerations for universities: findings from a tabletop exercise

The potential for a novel influenza virus to cause a pandemic represents a significant threat to global health. Planning for pandemic flu, as compared to planning for other types of hazards, presents some unique challenges to businesses, communities, and education institutions. To identify and address the challenges that may be faced by major metropolitan universities during a flu pandemic, a tabletop exercise was developed, offered, and evaluated. Its purpose was to assess existing University of Washington (UW) plans and policies for responding to an influenza pandemic. On May 31, 2006, more than 50 participants, including UW administrators and unit leaders and a number of key external partners, participated in a tabletop exercise designed to simulate all phases of an influenza pandemic. This exercise revealed existing gaps in university pandemic influenza plans and policies, including issues related to isolation and quarantine, continuity of operations, disaster mental health services, integration of volunteers into a disaster response, tracking travel of university students and personnel, communication problems, and ways to meet the needs of resident and foreign students and faculty during an outbreak. Policy and planning recommendations are offered that address each of these challenges faced by UW as well as other major research universities and colleges.     

Alien futures: What is on the horizon for biological invasions?

Aim

To collect and identify the issues that may affect the future global and local management of biological invasions in the next 20–50 years and provide guidance for the prioritization of actions and policies responding to the management challenges of the future.

Location

Global

Methods

We used an open online survey to poll specialists and stakeholders from around the world as to their opinion on the three most important future issues both globally and at their respective local working level.

Results

The 240 respondents identified 629 global issues that we categorized into topics. We summarized the highest rated topics into five broad thematic areas: (1) environmental change, particularly climate change, (2) the spread of species through trade, (3) public awareness, (4) the development of new technologies to enhance management and (5) the need to strengthen policies. The respondents also identified 596 issues at their respective local working levels. Management, early detection, prevention and funding‐related issues all ranked higher than at the global level. Our global audience of practitioners, policymakers and researchers also elicited topics not identified in horizon scanning exercises led by scientists including potential human health impacts, the need for better risk assessments and legislation, the role of human migration and water management.

Main conclusions

The topic areas identified in this horizon scan provide guidance where future policy priorities for invasive alien species should be set. First, to reduce the magnitude and speed of environmental change and its impacts on biological invasions; second, to restrict the movement of potentially invasive alien species via trade; third, to raise awareness with the general public and empower them to act; and finally, to invest in innovative technologies that can detect and mitigate adverse impacts of introduced species.

     

Making predictive ecology more relevant to policy makers and practitioners

One of the aims of ecology is to aid policy makers and practitioners through the development of testable predictions of relevance to society. Here, we argue that this capacity can be improved in three ways. Firstly, by thinking more clearly about the priority issues using a range of methods including horizon scanning, identifying policy gaps, identifying priority questions and using evidence-based conservation to identify knowledge gaps. Secondly, by linking ecological models with models of other systems, such as economic and social models. Thirdly, by considering alternative approaches to generate and model data that use, for example, discrete or categorical states to model ecological systems. We particularly highlight that models are essential for making predictions. However, a key to the limitation in their use is the degree to which ecologists are able to communicate results to policy makers in a clear, useful and timely fashion.     

Changing Views of the Interconnections Between the Oceans and Human Health in Europe

Early steps in the emergence of the discipline of “Oceans and Human Health” are charted in the USA and discussed in relation to past and present marine environment and human health research activities in Europe. Differences in terminology are considered, as well as differences in circumstances related to the various seas of Europe and the intensity of human coastal activity and impact. Opportunities to progress interdisciplinary research are described, and the value of horizon scanning for the early identification of emerging issues is highlighted. The challenges facing researchers and policymakers addressing oceans and human health issues are outlined and some suggestions offered regarding how further progress in research and training into both the risks and benefits of Oceans and Human Health might be made on both sides of the Atlantic.     

Exercise distributed across day and night does not alter circadian period in humans

In rodents, increased activity due to running-wheel access is associated with a change in observed circadian period. In humans, exposure to exercise has failed to demonstrate similar effects on period. Methodological issues with prior studies such as light exposure during exercise, length of study, and method of measuring period confounded those evaluations of the effect of exercise on period in humans. In the present experiment, the authors examined the effect of exercise on period in 8 subjects using a 44-day within-subjects inpatient study. They used a 20-h forced desynchrony protocol, in which subjects were exposed to exercise across circadian phases under dim light conditions. Exercise consisted of three 45-min sessions per wake period on an ergometer. Target exercise intensity was ~65% of maximal heart rate. Intrinsic circadian period was measured using both core body temperature and hourly plasma melatonin samples. Consistent with previous reports, the authors find no effect of exercise on endogenous circadian period as measured by either core body temperature or melatonin. Exercise distributed across biological day and night does not appear to affect circadian period.     

Neuroelectric measurement of cognition during aerobic exercise

The application of neuroimaging techniques to assess changes in brain and cognition during exercise has received little attention due to issues related to artifact associated with gross motor movement inherent in physical activity behaviors. Although many neuroimaging techniques have not yet progressed to a point where movement artifact may be controlled, event-related brain potentials (ERPs), which measure neuroelectric responses to specific events, can account for such issues in controlled environments. This paper discusses the deviations from standard neuroelectric recording procedures and signal processing that are necessary for the collection and analysis of ERPs during gross motor movement. Considerations include the properties of the exercise behavior, task instructions, and the position of materials in the stimulus environment, as well as issues related to electrode impedance, additional reduction techniques, and the plotting of single trials to identify movement artifacts. These techniques provide a means for collecting clean data from the neuroelectric system to provide further understanding of changes in brain and cognition that occur online during exercise behavior, and serves as a novel application of neuroimaging to the kinesiological sciences.     

Microcosm-based analyses of Scots pine seedling growth, ectomycorrhizal fungal community structure and bacterial carbon utilization profiles in boreal forest humus and underlying illuvial mineral horizons

We report on the identity of indigenous mycorrhiza forming fungi and rhizosphere/mycorrhizosphere bacterial community carbon source utilization profiles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings grown in boreal forest humus (O) or illuvial (B) mineral horizon containing microcosm growth systems. Based on rDNA (ITS)-RFLP analyses, a total of 10 fungal RFLP taxa were identified from pre-morphotyped mycorrhizas on 7-month-old seedling roots. Hierarchical cluster analysis, including corresponding RFLPs of known fungal species, confirmed root colonization by eight mycorrhizal species. In the O horizon, roots were colonized by e.g. Suillus bovinus, Suillus variegatus, Cenococcum geophilum, Piloderma croceum, Thelephora terrestris and Russula vinicolor. Mycobiont diversity in the mineral B horizon was lower but included Piceirhiza bicolorata and both Suillus species which produced extensive extramatrical mycelium. In comparison to non-colonized soils, rhizosphere and mycorrhizosphere compartments supported significantly higher numbers of bacteria (mean range 10(8)-10(11) cells g(-1) fresh weight (fw)). Specific rhizosphere/mycorrhizosphere 'niche'-linked bacterial communities were detected following multivariate analyses (PCA and CA) of bacterial carbon utilization profiles (Biolog(R) GN microplate). Distinct preferences for amino and carboxylic acids were identified in mineral B horizon rhizospheres whereas a wider range of carbon sources were utilized in the fungal-dominated mycorrhizospheres irrespective of soil types.     

Activity profiling of ectomycorrhiza communities in two forest soils using multiple enzymatic tests

Data on the diversity and distribution of enzyme activities in native ectomycorrhizal (ECM) communities are inadequate. A microplate multiple enzymatic test was developed which makes it possible to measure eight enzyme activities on 14 individual, excised ECM root tips. Hydrolytic and oxidative enzymes are involved in the decomposition of lignocellulose, chitin and phosphorus-containing organic compounds. This test system was used to describe the functional diversity of ECM communities in two forest sites. This set of tests proved to be accurate and sensitive enough to reveal a high diversity of activity profiles, depending on the fungal symbiont and the soil horizon. Ectomycorrhizas can be classified into specialists and generalists, and appear to complement each other in the same horizon to collectively perform all eight activities studied. By including a higher number of different assays for more detailed analyses, ECM activity profiling will provide a valuable tool for studying the functional diversity of ECM communities.     

Biogeochemical controls on aluminum chemistry in the O horizon of a red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) stand in central Maine,USA

This study examined the biotic and abiotic processes controlling solution chemistry and cycling of aluminum (Al) in the organic horizons of a northern coniferous forest ecosystem. A mass balance budget indicated that aboveground inputs of Al to the O horizon averaged 0.9 kg ha^–1 1 yr^–1, with major inputs accounted for by litterfall (69%), followed by precipitation (21%), and net canopy throughfall plus stemflow (10%). Estimated leaching losses of Al from the O horizon averaged 2.1 kg Al ha^-1 yr1. We hypothesize that the difference between measured Al inputs and outputs can be accounted for by Al release from weathering of soil minerals admixed into the O horizon. Variations in O horizon solution Al chemistry were influenced by a number of factors, including pH, Al equilibria with different solid-phase organic exchange sites, and Al complexation with humic ligands in soil solution.