Long term relative survival after surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Western Australia: population based study

Objective: To determine the long term relative survival of all patients who had surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Western Australia during 1985-94. Design: Population based study. Setting: Western Australia. Subjects: All patients who had had surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Western Australia during 1985-94. Main outcome measures: Morbidity and mortality data of patients admitted and surgically treated for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Western Australia during 1985-94. Elective, ruptured, and acute non-ruptured cases were analysed separately. Independent analyses for sex and patients aged 80 years or more were also undertaken. Postoperative (>30 days) relative survival was assessed against age and sex matched controls. Results: Overall, 1475 (1257 men, 218 women) cases were identified. The crude five year survival after elective surgery, including deaths within 30 days of surgery, was 79% for both men and women. When compared with a matched population the five year relative survival after elective surgery was 94.9% (95% confidence interval 89.9% to 99.9%) for men but only 88.0% (76.3% to 99.7%) for women. The five year relative survival of those aged 80 years and over was good: 116.6% (89.1% to 144.0%) compared with 92.4% (87.7% to 97.0%) for those under 80 years of age (men and women combined). Cardiovascular disease caused 57.8% of the 341 deaths after 30 days. Conclusion: In a condition such as abdominal aortic aneurysm, which occurs in elderly patients, relative survival is more clinically meaningful than crude survival. The five year relative survival in cases of elective and ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm was better in men than in women. This is probably because of greater comorbidity in women with abdominal aortic aneurysm and this deserves more attention in the future. The long term survival outcome in octogenarians supports surgery in selected cases.

Key messages

• Background mortality for conditions such as abdominal aortic aneurysm in elderly patients needs to be taken into account when assessing long term survival after surgery
• Relative survival methodology can correct for background mortality
• The five year relative survival for patients surviving beyond 30 days of elective surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm was 95% for men and 88% for women
• For octogenarians, five year survival after elective surgery was greater than that expected of an age matched population
• Age over 80 years should not preclude consideration for elective surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm

     

Human albumin administration in critically ill patients: systematic review of randomised controlled trials

Objective: To quantify effect on mortality of administering human albumin or plasma protein fraction during management of critically ill patients. Design: Systematic review of randomised controlled trials comparing administration of albumin or plasma protein fraction with no administration or with administration of crystalloid solution in critically ill patients with hypovolaemia, burns, or hypoalbuminaemia. Subjects: 30 randomised controlled trials including 1419 randomised patients. Main outcome measure: Mortality from all causes at end of follow up for each trial. Results: For each patient category the risk of death in the albumin treated group was higher than in the comparison group. For hypovolaemia the relative risk of death after albumin administration was 1.46 (95% confidence interval 0.97 to 2.22), for burns the relative risk was 2.40 (1.11 to 5.19), and for hypoalbuminaemia it was 1.69 (1.07 to 2.67). Pooled relative risk of death with albumin administration was 1.68 (1.26 to 2.23). Pooled difference in the risk of death with albumin was 6% (95% confidence interval 3% to 9%) with a fixed effects model. These data suggest that for every 17 critically ill patients treated with albumin there is one additional death. Conclusions: There is no evidence that albumin administration reduces mortality in critically ill patients with hypovolaemia, burns, or hypoalbuminaemia and a strong suggestion that it may increase mortality. These data suggest that use of human albumin in critically ill patients should be urgently reviewed and that it should not be used outside the context of rigorously conducted, randomised controlled trials.

Key messages

• Human albumin solution has been used in the treatment of critically ill patients for over 50 years
• Currently, the licensed indications for use of albumin are emergency treatment of shock, acute management of burns, and clinical situations associated with hypoproteinaemia
• Our systematic review of randomised controlled trials showed that, for each of these patient categories, the risk of death in the albumin treated group was higher than in the comparison group
• The pooled relative risk of death with albumin was 1.68 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 2.23) and the pooled difference in the risk of death was 6% (3% to 9%) or six additional deaths for every 100 patients treated
• We consider that use of human albumin solution in critically ill patients should be urgently reviewed

     

Explaining differences in English hospital death rates using routinely collected data

ObjectivesTo ascertain hospital inpatient mortality in England and to determine which factors best explain variation in standardised hospital death ratios.DesignWeighted linear regression analysis of routinely collected data over four years, with hospital standardised mortality ratios as the dependent variable.SettingEngland.SubjectsEight million discharges from NHS hospitals when the primary diagnosis was one of the diagnoses accounting for 80% of inpatient deaths.ResultsThe four year crude death rates varied across hospitals from 3.4% to 13.6% (average for England 8.5%), and standardised hospital mortality ratios ranged from 53 to 137 (average for England 100). The percentage of cases that were emergency admissions (60% of total hospital admissions) was the best predictor of this variation in mortality, with the ratio of hospital doctors to beds and general practitioners to head of population the next best predictors. When analyses were restricted to emergency admissions (which covered 93% of all patient deaths analysed) number of doctors per bed was the best predictor.ConclusionAnalysis of hospital episode statistics reveals wide variation in standardised hospital mortality ratios in England. The percentage of total admissions classified as emergencies is the most powerful predictor of variation in mortality. The ratios of doctors to head of population served, both in hospital and in general practice, seem to be critical determinants of standardised hospital death rates; the higher these ratios, the lower the death rates in both cases.

Key messages

• Between 1991-2 and 1994-5 average standardised hospital mortality ratios in English hospitals reduced by 2.6% annually, but the ratios varied more than twofold among the hospitals
• After adjustment for the percentage of emergency cases and for age, sex, and primary diagnosis, the best predictors of standardised hospital death rates were the numbers of hospital doctors per bed and of general practitioners per head of population in the localities from which hospital admissions were drawn
• England has one of the lowest number of physicians per head of population of the OECD countries, being only 59% of the OECD average
• It is now possible to control for factors outside the direct influence of hospital policy and thereby produce a more valid measure of hospital quality of care

     

Influence of hospital and clinician workload on survival from colorectal cancer: cohort study

ObjectiveTo determine whether clinician or hospital caseload affects mortality from colorectal cancer.DesignCohort study of cases ascertained between 1990 and 1994 by a region-wide colorectal cancer register.ResultsOf the 3217 new patients registered over the period, 1512 (48%) died before 31 December 1996. Strong predictors of survival both in a logistic regression (fixed follow up) and in a Cox''s proportional hazards model (variable follow up) were Duke''s stage, the degree of tumour differentiation, whether the liver was deemed clear of cancer by the surgeon at operation, and the type of intervention (elective or emergency and curative or palliative intent). In a multilevel model, surgeon’s caseload had no significant effect on mortality at 2 years. Hospital workload, however, had a significant impact on survival. The odds ratio for death within 2 years for cases managed in a hospital with a caseload of between 33 and 46 cases per year, 47 and 54 cases per year, and ⩾55 cases per year (compared to one with ≤23 cases per year) were respectively 1.48 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 2.13), 1.52 (1.08 to 2.13), and 1.18 (0.83 to 1.68).ConclusionsThere was no detectable caseload effect for surgeons managing colorectal cancer, but survival of patients treated in hospitals with caseloads above 33 cases per year was slightly worse than for those treated in hospitals with fewer caseloads. Imprecise measurement of clinician specific “events rates” and the lack of routinely collected case mix data present major challenges for clinical audit and governance in the years ahead.

Key messages

• Various benefits have been described for multidisciplinary cancer care, but the precise relation between a surgeon''s or hospital''s caseload and the outcome for the patient is not known
• Any investigation of a caseload effect at the hospital or practitioner level has to simultaneously account for each factor and adjust adequately for case mix
• Surgeon had no significant effect on caseload, but patients treated in hospitals with low caseloads (<33 cases per year) had a slightly better survival at 2 years than those treated in hospitals with a higher caseload
• Defining surgical expertise in terms of volume of activity may be a misdirected and imprecise yardstick for the quality of cancer care; other aspects of the organisation of services may be far more important

     

Tight blood pressure control and risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications in type 2 diabetes: UKPDS 38

Objective: To determine whether tight control of blood pressure prevents macrovascular and microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes.Design: Randomised controlled trial comparing tight control of blood pressure aiming at a blood pressure of <150/85 mm Hg (with the use of an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor captopril or a β blocker atenolol as main treatment) with less tight control aiming at a blood pressure of <180/105 mm Hg.Setting: 20 hospital based clinics in England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.Subjects: 1148 hypertensive patients with type 2 diabetes (mean age 56, mean blood pressure at entry 160/94 mm Hg); 758 patients were allocated to tight control of blood pressure and 390 patients to less tight control with a median follow up of 8.4 years.Main outcome measures: Predefined clinical end points, fatal and non-fatal, related to diabetes, deaths related to diabetes, and all cause mortality. Surrogate measures of microvascular disease included urinary albumin excretion and retinal photography.Results: Mean blood pressure during follow up was significantly reduced in the group assigned tight blood pressure control (144/82 mm Hg) compared with the group assigned to less tight control (154/87 mm Hg) (P<0.0001). Reductions in risk in the group assigned to tight control compared with that assigned to less tight control were 24% in diabetes related end points (95% confidence interval 8% to 38%) (P=0.0046), 32% in deaths related to diabetes (6% to 51%) (P=0.019), 44% in strokes (11% to 65%) (P=0.013), and 37% in microvascular end points (11% to 56%) (P=0.0092), predominantly owing to a reduced risk of retinal photocoagulation. There was a non-significant reduction in all cause mortality. After nine years of follow up the group assigned to tight blood pressure control also had a 34% reduction in risk in the proportion of patients with deterioration of retinopathy by two steps (99% confidence interval 11% to 50%) (P=0.0004) and a 47% reduced risk (7% to 70%) (P=0.004) of deterioration in visual acuity by three lines of the early treatment of diabetic retinopathy study (ETDRS) chart. After nine years of follow up 29% of patients in the group assigned to tight control required three or more treatments to lower blood pressure to achieve target blood pressures.Conclusion: Tight blood pressure control in patients with hypertension and type 2 diabetes achieves a clinically important reduction in the risk of deaths related to diabetes, complications related to diabetes, progression of diabetic retinopathy, and deterioration in visual acuity.

Key messages

• This study showed that tight control of blood pressure based on captopril or atenolol as first agents and aiming for both a systolic blood pressure <150 mm Hg and diastolic pressure <85 mm Hg achieved a mean 144/82 mm Hg compared with 154/87 mm Hg in a control group
• 29% of patients in the tight control group required three or more hypotensive treatments
• Tight control of blood pressure reduced the risk of any non-fatal or fatal diabetic complications and of death related to diabetes; deterioration in visual acuity was also reduced
• Reducing blood pressure needs to have high priority in caring for patients with type 2 diabetes

     

Emerging tobacco hazards in China: 2. Early mortality results from a prospective study

ObjectiveTo monitor the evolving epidemic of mortality from tobacco in China following the large increase in male cigarette use in recent decades.DesignProspective study of smoking and mortality starting with 224 500 interviewees who should eventually be followed for some decades.Setting45 nationally representative small urban or rural areas distributed across China.SubjectsMale population aged 40 or over in 1991, of whom about 80% were interviewed about smoking, drinking, and medical history.Results74% were smokers (73% current, only 1% former), but few of this generation would have smoked substantial numbers of cigarettes since early adult life. Overall mortality is increased among smokers (risk ratio 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.25, P<0.0001). Almost all the increased mortality involved neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular disease. The overall risk ratios currently associated with smoking are less extreme in rural areas (1.26, 1.12, or 1.02 respectively for smokers who started before age 20, at 20-24, or at older ages) than in urban areas (1.73, 1.40, or 1.16 respectively).ConclusionThis prospective study and the accompanying retrospective study show that by 1990 smoking was already causing about 12% of Chinese male mortality in middle age. This proportion is predicted to rise to about 33% by 2030. Long term continuation of the prospective study (with periodic resurveys) can monitor the evolution of this epidemic.

Key messages

• In recent years most young men in China have become persistent cigarette smokers, starting at about age 20; this will cause high mortality in middle age and old age
• Currently, however, most middle aged and older smokers (particularly in rural areas) have not persistently used substantial daily numbers of cigarettes ever since they were young adults, so their current tobacco attributed mortality is more limited
• Nationally representative retrospective and prospective studies now show that in about 1990 “only” about 12% of adult male deaths in middle age were caused by smoking
• Continuation of the present prospective study will monitor the growth of the epidemic of tobacco related deaths in China over the next few decades

     

ISIS-2: 10 year survival among patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction in randomised comparison of intravenous streptokinase,oral aspirin,both, or neither

Objective: To assess effects of intravenous streptokinase, one month of oral aspirin, or both, on long term survival after suspected acute myocardial infarction. Design: Randomised, “2×2 factorial,” placebo controlled trial. Setting: 417 hospitals in 16 countries. Subjects: 17 187 patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction randomised between March 1985 and December 1987. Follow up of vital status complete to at least 1 January 1990 for 95% of all patients and to mid-1997 for the 6213 patients in United Kingdom. Interventions: Intravenous streptokinase (1.5 MU in 1 hour) and oral aspirin (162 mg daily for 1 month) versus matching placebos. Main outcome measures: Mortality from all causes during up to 10 years’ follow up, with subgroup analyses based on 4 year follow up. Results: After randomisation, 1841 deaths were recorded in days 0-35, 991 from day 36 to end of year 1, 1478 in years 2-4, and 1230 in years 5-10. Allocation to streptokinase was associated with 29 (95% confidence interval 20 to 38) fewer deaths per 1000 patients during days 0-35. This early benefit persisted (death rate ratio 0.98 (0.92 to 1.04) for additional deaths between day 36 and end of year 10), so that there were 28 (14 to 42) and 23 (2 to 44) fewer deaths per 1000 patients treated with streptokinase after 4 years and 10 years respectively. There was no evidence that absolute survival benefit increased with prolonged follow up among any category of patient, including those presenting early after symptoms started or with anterior ST elevation. Nor did the early benefits seem to be lost in any category (including those aged over 70). Allocation to one month of aspirin was associated with 26 (16 to 35) fewer deaths per 1000 during first 35 days, with little further benefit or loss during subsequent years (death rate ratio 0.99 (0.93 to 1.06) between day 36 and end of year 10). The early benefit obtained with combination of streptokinase and one month of aspirin also seemed to persist long term. Conclusions: The early survival advantages produced by fibrinolytic therapy and one month of aspirin started in acute myocardial infarction seem to be maintained for at least 10 years.

Key messages

• Large randomised trials have shown that the survival benefits of intravenous fibrinolytic therapy for patients with acute myocardial infarction persist for at least one year, but there is relatively little information about longer term effects
• By contrast, this report from the ISIS-2 trial of intravenous streptokinase and of one month of oral aspirin includes nearly 4000 deaths between the start of year 2 and the end of year 10
• The early survival benefits of fibrinolytic therapy persist for at least 10 years after treatment and do not seem to increase or decrease with prolonged follow up in any category of patients, including elderly subjects
• The survival benefits of short term aspirin treatment in acute myocardial infarction also persist long term and are additional to those of fibrinolytic therapy, and other studies show that these benefits can be increased by continuing aspirin treatment for some years after myocardial infarction

     

Late entry into HIV care: estimated impact on AIDS mortality rates in Brazil, 2003-2006

Background

Worldwide, a high proportion of HIV-infected individuals enter into HIV care late. Here, our objective was to estimate the impact that late entry into HIV care has had on AIDS mortality rates in Brazil.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed data from information systems regarding HIV-infected adults who sought treatment at public health care facilities in Brazil from 2003 to 2006. We initially estimated the prevalence of late entry into HIV care, as well as the probability of death in the first 12 months, the percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry, and the number of avoidable deaths. We subsequently adjusted the annual AIDS mortality rate by excluding such deaths. Of the 115,369 patients evaluated, 50,358 (43.6%) had entered HIV care late, and 18,002 died in the first 12 months, representing a 16.5% probability of death in the first 12 months (95% CI: 16.3–16.7). By comparing patients who entered HIV care late with those who gained timely access, we found that the risk ratio for death was 49.5 (95% CI: 45.1–54.2). The percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry was 95.5%, translating to 17,189 potentially avoidable deaths. Averting those deaths would have lowered the 2003–2006 AIDS mortality rate by 39.5%. Including asymptomatic patients with CD4⁺ T cell counts >200 and ≤350 cells/mm³ in the group who entered HIV care late increased this proportion by 1.8%.

Conclusions/Significance

In Brazil, antiretroviral drugs reduced AIDS mortality by 43%. Timely entry would reduce that rate by a similar proportion, as well as resulting in a 45.2% increase in the effectiveness of the program for HIV care. The World Health Organization recommendation that asymptomatic patients with CD4⁺ T cell counts ≤350 cells/mm³ be treated would not have a significant impact on this scenario.     

Emerging tobacco hazards in China: 1. Retrospective proportional mortality study of one million deaths

ObjectiveTo assess the hazards at an early phase of the growing epidemic of deaths from tobacco in China.DesignSmoking habits before 1980 (obtained from family or other informants) of 0.7 million adults who had died of neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular causes were compared with those of a reference group of 0.2 million who had died of other causes.Setting24 urban and 74 rural areas of China.SubjectsOne million people who had died during 1986-8 and whose families could be interviewed.ResultsAmong male smokers aged 35-69 there was a 51% (SE 2) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 31% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 15% (2) excess of vascular deaths. All three excesses were significant (P<0.0001). Among male smokers aged ⩾70 there was a 39% (3) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 54% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 6% (2) excess of vascular deaths. Fewer women smoked, but those who did had tobacco attributable risks of lung cancer and respiratory disease about the same as men. For both sexes, the lung cancer rates at ages 35-69 were about three times as great in smokers as in non-smokers, but because the rates among non-smokers in different parts of China varied widely the absolute excesses of lung cancer in smokers also varied. Of all deaths attributed to tobacco, 45% were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 15% to lung cancer; oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, tuberculosis, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease each caused 5-8%. Tobacco caused about 0.6 million Chinese deaths in 1990 (0.5 million men). This will rise to 0.8 million in 2000 (0.4 million at ages 35-69) or to more if the tobacco attributed fractions increase.ConclusionsAt current age specific death rates in smokers and non-smokers one in four smokers would be killed by tobacco, but as the epidemic grows this proportion will roughly double. If current smoking uptake rates persist in China (where about two thirds of men but few women become smokers) tobacco will kill about 100 million of the 0.3 billion males now aged 0-29, with half these deaths in middle age and half in old age.

Key messages

• Of the Chinese deaths now being caused by tobacco, 45% are from chronic lung disease, 15% from lung cancer, and 5-8% from each of oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and tuberculosis
• Tobacco now causes 13% (and will probably eventually cause about 33%) of deaths in men but only 3% (and perhaps eventually about 1%) of deaths in women as the proportion of young women who smoke has become small
• Two thirds of men now become smokers before age 25; few give up, and about half of those who persist will be killed by tobacco in middle or old age
• If present smoking patterns continue about 100 million of the 0.3 billion Chinese males now aged 0-29 will eventually be killed by tobacco
• Tobacco caused 0.6 million deaths in 1990 and will cause at least 0.8 million in 2000 (0.7 million in men) and about 3 million a year by the middle of the century on the basis of current smoking patterns

     

Survival in treated hypertension: follow up study after two decades

Objective: To compare survival and cause specific mortality in hypertensive men with non-hypertensive men derived from the same random population, and to study mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular diseases in the hypertensive men in relation to effects on cardiovascular risk factors during 22-23 years of follow up. Design: Prospective, population based observational study. Subjects and methods: 686 hypertensive men aged 47-55 at screening compared with 6810 non-hypertensive men. The hypertensive men were having stepped care treatment with either β adrenergic blocking drugs, thiazide diuretics, or combination treatment. Mortality, morbidity, and adverse effects were registered at yearly examinations and from death certificates. Main outcome measures: All cause mortality and cause specific mortality. Results: Treated hypertensive men had significantly impaired probability of total survival as well as survival from coronary heart disease and stroke. All cause mortality as well as coronary heart disease and stroke mortality were very similar in hypertensive men and normotensive men during the first decade, but increased steadily thereafter despite continuous good blood pressure control. Smoking, signs of target organ damage, and high serum cholesterol levels, but not blood pressure at screening, were significantly related to the incidence of coronary heart disease during follow up. In time dependent Cox’s regression analysis, the incidence of coronary heart disease was significantly related only to serum cholesterol concentrations in the study. Cancer mortality was almost similar in treated hypertensive men (61/686, 8.9%) and non-hypertensive men (732/6810, 10.8%). Conclusion: Treated hypertensive men had impaired survival and increased mortality from cardiovascular disease compared with non-hypertensive men of similar age. These differences were observed during the second decade of follow up. During an observation period of 22-23 years—about 15 000 patient years—hypertensive men receiving diuretics and β blockers had no increased risk of cancer or non-cardiovascular disease.

Key messages

• Hypertension is a prevalent (10-20%) and important risk factor for cardiovascular disease.
• In controlled trials over 3-5 years drug treatment for hypertension prevents these complications, but little is known about long term prognosis
• During 20-22 years treated hypertensive men had a significantly increased mortality, especially from coronary heart disease, compared with non-hypertensive men from the same population
• The high incidence of myocardial infarction was related to organ damage, smoking, and cholesterol at the time of entry to the study, and to achieved serum cholesterol concentrations during follow up
• The poor prognosis for mortality from coronary heart disease is dependent upon strict monitoring of serum cholesterol concentrations

     

β Blockade after myocardial infarction: systematic review and meta regression analysis

ObjectivesTo assess the effectiveness of β blockers in short term treatment for acute myocardial infarction and in longer term secondary prevention; to examine predictive factors that may influence outcome and therefore choice of drug; and to examine the clinical importance of the results in the light of current treatment.DesignSystematic review of randomised controlled trials.SettingRandomised controlled trials.SubjectsPatients with acute or past myocardial infarction.Interventionβ Blockers compared with control.Mainoutcome measures All cause mortality and non-fatal reinfarction.ResultsOverall, 5477 of 54 234 patients (10.1%) randomised to β blockers or control died. We identified a 23% reduction in the odds of death in long term trials (95% confidence interval 15% to 31%), but only a 4% reduction in the odds of death in short term trials (−8% to 15%). Meta regression in long term trials did not identify a significant reduction in effectiveness in drugs with cardioselectivity but did identify a near significant trend towards decreased benefit in drugs with intrinsic sympathomimetic activity. Most evidence is available for propranolol, timolol, and metoprolol. In long term trials, the number needed to treat for 2 years to avoid a death is 42, which compares favourably with other treatments for patients with acute or past myocardial infarction.Conclusionsβ Blockers are effective in long term secondary prevention after myocardial infarction, but they are underused in such cases and lead to avoidable mortality and morbidity.

Key messages

• The first randomised trials of β blockade in secondary prevention after myocardial infarction were published in the 1960s
• β blockers were once heralded as a major advance, but their use for secondary prevention has declined in recent years
• Firm evidence shows that long term β blockade remains an effective and well tolerated treatment that reduces mortality and morbidity in unselected patients after myocardial infarction
• The benefits from β blockade compare favourably with other drug treatments for this patient group
• Most evidence is for propranolol, timolol, and metoprolol, whereas atenolol, which is commonly used, is inadequately evaluated for long term use

     

How to evaluate and improve the quality and credibility of an outcomes database: validation and feedback study on the UK Cardiac Surgery Experience

ObjectivesTo assess the quality and completeness of a database of clinical outcomes after cardiac surgery and to determine whether a process of validation, monitoring, and feedback could improve the quality of the database.DesignStratified sampling of retrospective data followed by prospective re-sampling of database after intervention of monitoring, validation, and feedback.SettingTen tertiary care cardiac surgery centres in the United Kingdom.InterventionValidation of data derived from a stratified sample of case notes (recording of deaths cross checked with mortuary records), monitoring of completeness and accuracy of data entry, feedback to local data managers and lead surgeons.ResultsThe database was incomplete, with a mean (SE) of 24.96% (0.09%) of essential data elements missing, whereas only 1.18% (0.06%) were missing in the patient records (P<0.0001). Intervention was associated with (a) significantly less missing data (9.33% (0.08%) P<0.0001); (b) marginal improvement in reliability of data and mean (SE) overall centre reliability score (0.53 (0.15) v 0.44 (0.17)); and (c) improved accuracy of assigned Parsonnet risk scores (κ 0.84 v 0.70). Mortality scores (actual minus risk adjusted mortality) for all participating centres fell within two standard deviations of the mean score.ConclusionA short period of independent validation, monitoring, and feedback improved the quality of an outcomes database and improved the process of risk adjustment, but with substantial room for further improvement. Wider application of this approach should increase the credibility of similar databases before their public release.

What is already know in this topic

Release of healthcare outcomes into the public domain has altered referral patterns and has led to improvement in some centres and elimination of othersThe tacit assumption is that such outcomes data are accurate and can be relied on by the public and by healthcare providers to guide improvements

What this study adds

Sampling of a published national cardiac surgery database in England revealed it to be both incomplete and unreliable in its ability to yield accurate, risk adjusted outcomes dataAn independent short process of monitoring, validation, and feedback improved the quality of the databaseSuch databases probably require an ongoing process of monitoring in order to allow data of adequate quality to be generated for the purpose of improving healthcare outcomes     

Unnatural deaths in South African platinum miners, 1992-2008

Background

The mortality rate from unnatural deaths for South Africa is nearly double the world average. Reliable data are limited by inaccurate and incomplete ascertainment of specific causes of unnatural death. This study describes trends in causes of unnatural death between 1992 and 2008 in a cohort of South African miners.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The study used routinely-collected retrospective data with cause of death determined from multiple sources including the mine''s human resources database, medical records, death registration, and autopsy. Cause-specific mortality rates and Poisson regression coefficients were calculated by calendar year and age group. The cohort included 40,043 men. One quarter of all 2937 deaths were from unnatural causes (n = 805). Causes of unnatural deaths were road traffic accidents 38% (109/100,000 py), homicides 30% (88/100,000 py), occupational injuries 17% (50/100,000 py), suicides 8% (24/100,000 py), and other accidents 6% (19/100,000 py). Rates of unnatural deaths declined by 2% (95%CI -4%,-1%) per year over the study period, driven by declining rates of road traffic and other accidents. The rate of occupational injury mortality did not change significantly over time (-2% per year, 95%CI -5%,+2%). Unnatural deaths were less frequent in this cohort of workers than in the South African population (IRR 0.89, 95%CI 0.82–0.95), particularly homicides (IRR 0.48, 95%CI 0.42–0.55).

Conclusions/Significance

Unnatural deaths were a common cause of preventable and premature death in this cohort of miners. While unnatural death rates declined between 1992 and 2008, occupational fatalities remained at a high level. Evidence-based prevention strategies to address these avoidable deaths are urgently needed.     

Epidemiology of mortality related to Chagas' disease in Brazil, 1999-2007

Background

Chagas'' disease is an important neglected public health problem in many Latin American countries, but population-based epidemiological data are scarce. Here we present a nationwide analysis on Chagas-associated mortality, and risk factors for death from this disease.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed all death certificates of individuals who died between 1999 and 2007 in Brazil, based on the nationwide Mortality Information System (a total of 243 data sets with about 9 million entries). Chagas'' disease was mentioned in 53,930 (0.6%) of death certificates, with 44,537 (82.6%) as an underlying cause and 9,387 (17.4%) as an associated cause of death. Acute Chagas'' disease was responsible for 2.8% of deaths. The mean standardized mortality rate was 3.36/100.000 inhabitants/year. Nationwide standardized mortality rates reduced gradually, from 3.78 (1999) to 2.78 (2007) deaths/year per 100,000 inhabitants (−26.4%). Standardized mortality rates were highest in the Central-West region, ranging from 15.23 in 1999 to 9.46 in 2007 (−37.9%), with a significant negative linear trend (p = 0.001; R² = 82%). Proportional mortality considering multiple causes of death was 0.60%. The Central-West showed highest proportional mortality among regions (2.17%), with a significant linear negative trend, from 2.28% to 1.90% (−19.5%; p = 0.001; R² = 84%). There was a significant increase in the Northeast of 38.5% (p = 0.006; R² = 82%). Bivariable analysis on risk factors for death from Chagas'' disease showed highest relative risks (RR) in older age groups (RR: 10.03; 95% CI: 9.40–10.70; p<0.001) and those residing in the Central-West region (RR: 15.01; 95% CI: 3.90–16.22; p<0.001). In logistic regression analysis, age ≥30 years (adjusted OR: 10.81; 95% CI: 10.03–10.65; p<0.001) and residence in one of the three high risk states Minas Gerais, Goiás or the Federal District (adjusted OR: 5.12; 95% CI: 5.03–5.22, p<0.001) maintained important independent risk factors for death by Chagas'' disease.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first nationwide population-based study on Chagas mortality in Brazil, considering multiple causes of death. Despite the decline of mortality associated with Chagas'' disease in Brazil, the disease remains a serious public health problem with marked regional differences.     

Mortality after Hospitalization for Pneumonia among Individuals with HIV, 1995–2008: A Danish Cohort Study

Background

HIV–infected persons are at increased risk of pneumonia, even with highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). We examined the impact of pneumonia on mortality and identified prognostic factors for death among HIV–infected.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a nationwide, population-based cohort of individuals with HIV, we included persons hospitalized with pneumonia from the Danish National Hospital Registry and obtained mortality data from the Danish Civil Registration System. Comparing individuals with and without pneumonia, we used Poisson regression to estimate relative mortality and logistic regression to examine prognostic factors for death following pneumonia. From January 1, 1995, to July 1, 2008, we observed 699 episodes of first hospitalization for pneumonia among 4,352 HIV patients. Ninety-day mortality after pneumonia decreased from 22.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.5%–28.9%) in 1995–1996 to 8.4% (95% CI: 6.1%–11.6%) in 2000–2008. Mortality remained elevated for more than a year after hospitalization for pneumonia: adjusted mortality rate ratio 5.38 (95% CI: 4.27–6.78), 1.80 (95% CI: 1.36–2.37), and 1.62 (95% CI: 1.32–2.00) for days 0–90, 91–365, and 366+, respectively. The following variables predicted mortality within 90 days following hospitalization for pneumonia (adjusted Odds Ratios): male sex (3.77, 95% CI: 1.37–10.4), Charlson Comorbidity Index score ≥2 (3.86, 95% CI: 2.19–6.78); no current HAART (3.58, 95% CI: 1.83–6.99); history of AIDS (2.46, 95% CI: 1.40–4.32); age per 10 year increase (1.43, 95% CI: 1.11–1.85); and CD4+ cell count ≤200 (2.52, 95% CI: 1.37–4.65).

Conclusions/Significance

The first hospitalization for pneumonia among HIV–infected individuals was associated with elevated risk of death up to more than a year later. Use of HAART decreased the risk, independent of current CD4+ cell count. Prognosis following pneumonia improved over calendar time.     

Quantifying child mortality reductions related to measles vaccination

Background

This study characterizes the historical relationship between coverage of measles containing vaccines (MCV) and mortality in children under 5 years, with a view toward ongoing global efforts to reduce child mortality.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using country-level, longitudinal panel data, from 44 countries over the period 1960–2005, we analyzed the relationship between MCV coverage and measles mortality with (1) logistic regressions for no measles deaths in a country-year, and (2) linear regressions for the logarithm of the measles death rate. All regressions allowed a flexible, non-linear relationship between coverage and mortality. Covariates included birth rate, death rates from other causes, percent living in urban areas, population density, per-capita GDP, use of the two-dose MCV, year, and mortality coding system. Regressions used lagged covariates, country fixed effects, and robust standard errors clustered by country. The likelihood of no measles deaths increased nonlinearly with higher MCV coverage (ORs: 13.8 [1.6–122.7] for 80–89% to 40.7 [3.2–517.6] for ≥95%), compared to pre-vaccination risk levels. Measles death rates declined nonlinearly with higher MCV coverage, with benefits accruing more slowly above 90% coverage. Compared to no coverage, predicted average reductions in death rates were −79% at 70% coverage, −93% at 90%, and −95% at 95%.

Conclusions/Significance

40 years of experience with MCV vaccination suggests that extremely high levels of vaccination coverage are needed to produce sharp reductions in measles deaths. Achieving sustainable benefits likely requires a combination of extended vaccine programs and supplementary vaccine efforts.     

Measures of early postoperative mortality: beyond hospital fatality rates.

OBJECTIVE--To quantify the short term risk of postoperative mortality in ways which take account of deaths after discharge and the background risks of death in patients who come to operation. DESIGN--Analysis of linked abstracts of hospital admission records and death certificates for common operations. SETTING--Six health districts in the Oxford region. SUBJECTS--Records of 223,529 operations performed in 1980-6. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--In hospital fatality rates, case fatality rates, and standardised mortality ratios at selected time periods during the year after operation and the ratio of early (< 30 days) to late (90-364 days after operation) fatality rates. RESULTS--Fatality rates throughout the year after operations performed after emergency admissions were generally higher than those for similar operations performed after elective admissions and higher than expected from population rates. Examples were prostatectomy, hip arthroplasty, inguinal herniorrhaphy, and cholecystectomy. Common elective operations such as inguinal herniorrhaphy and cataract operations showed no early peak in mortality, but others did. These included transurethral prostatectomy (ratio of early to late mortality 2.0; 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.6), hysterectomy (3.2; 1.5 to 6.6), hip arthroplasty (3.8; 2.5 to 5.4), and cholecystectomy (6.9; 4.3 to 11.1). CONCLUSIONS--Temporal profiles of death rates in the year after operation show which operations have early peaks in mortality and which do not. Emergency and elective operations have very different profiles and should be analysed separately. For elective operations for conditions which pose no immediate threat to life the ratio of early to later fatality rates provides a measure of increase in mortality after operation while allowing for the background risk of death in the patient groups.     

Long-Term Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with Meningococcal Disease: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study

Background

In contrast to the case fatality rate of patients diagnosed with meningococcal disease (MD) the long-term mortality in these patients is poorly documented.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We performed a nationwide, population-based cohort study including all Danish patients diagnosed with MD from 1977 through 2006 and alive one year after diagnosis. Data was retrieved from the Danish National Hospital Register, the Danish Civil Registration System and the Danish Register of Causes of Death. For each patient four age- and gender-matched individuals were identified from the population cohort. The siblings of the MD patients and of the individuals from the population cohort were identified. We constructed Kaplan-Meier survival curves and used Cox regression analysis, cumulative incidence function and subdistribution hazard regression to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRR) and analyze causes of death. We identified 4,909 MD patients, 19,636 individuals from the population cohort, 8,126 siblings of MD patients and 31,140 siblings of the individuals from the population cohort. The overall MRR for MD patients was 1.27 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12–1.45), adjusted MRR, 1.21 (95% CI, 1.06–1.37). MD was associated with increased risk of death due to nervous system diseases (MRR 3.57 (95% CI, 1.82–7.00). No increased mortality due to infections, neoplasms or cardiovascular diseases was observed. The MRR for siblings of MD patients compared with siblings of the individuals from the population cohort was 1.17 (95% CI, 0.92–1.48).

Conclusions

Patients surviving the acute phase of MD have increased long-term mortality, but the excess risk of death is small and stems mainly from nervous system diseases.     

Vertical transmission rates for HIV in the British Isles: estimates based on surveillance data

ObjectiveTo estimate and interpret time trends in vertical transmission rates for HIV using data from national obstetric and paediatric surveillance registers.DesignProspective study of HIV infected women reported through obstetric surveillance. HIV infection status of the child and onset of AIDS were reported through paediatric surveillance. Rates of vertical transmission and progression to AIDS rate were estimated by methods that take account of incomplete follow up of children with indeterminate infection status and delay in AIDS reporting.SettingBritish Isles.SubjectsPregnant women infected with HIV whose infection was diagnosed before delivery, and their babies.ResultsBy January 1999, 800 children born to diagnosed HIV infected women who had not breast fed had been reported. Vertical transmission rates rose to 19.6% (95% confidence interval 8.0% to 32.5%) in 1993 before falling to 2.2% (0% to 7.8%) in 1998. Between 1995 and 1998 use of antiretroviral treatment increased significantly each year, reaching 97% of live births in 1998. The rate of elective caesarean section remained constant, at around 40%, up to 1997 but increased to 62% in 1998. Caesarean section and antiretroviral treatment together were estimated to reduce risk of transmission from 31.6% (13.6% to 52.2%) to 4.2% (0.8% to 8.5%). The proportion of infected children developing AIDS in the first 6 months fell from 17.7% (6.8% to 30.8%) before 1994 to 7.2% (0% to 15.7%) after, coinciding with increased use of prophylaxis against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia.ConclusionsIn the British Isles both HIV related morbidity and vertical transmission are being reduced through increased use of interventions.

Key messages

• Reliable estimates of HIV vertical transmission rates can be derived from surveillance data
• Infected pregnant women are increasingly taking up elective caesarean section and antiretroviral treatment to reduce the risk of transmitting HIV to their babies
• Vertical transmission rates have fallen greatly over the past four years and progression to AIDS among infected children may also have slowed
• These benefits can occur only if infected women are diagnosed before or during pregnancy