Combining monitoring,models and palaeolimnology to assess ecosystem response to environmental change at monthly to millennial timescales: the stability of Blue Lake,North Stradbroke Island,Australia

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Vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change moderated by habitat intactness

The combined effects of climate change and habitat loss represent a major threat to species and ecosystems around the world. Here, we analyse the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on current levels of habitat intactness and vulnerability to biome shifts, using multiple measures of habitat intactness at two spatial scales. We show that the global extent of refugia depends highly on the definition of habitat intactness and spatial scale of the analysis of intactness. Globally, 28% of terrestrial vegetated area can be considered refugia if all natural vegetated land cover is considered. This, however, drops to 17% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 48 × 48 km are considered and to 10% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 4.8 × 4.8 km are considered. Our results suggest that, in regions where relatively large, intact wilderness areas remain (e.g. Africa, Australia, boreal regions, South America), conservation of the remaining large‐scale refugia is the priority. In human‐dominated landscapes, (e.g. most of Europe, much of North America and Southeast Asia), focusing on finer scale refugia is a priority because large‐scale wilderness refugia simply no longer exist. Action to conserve such refugia is particularly urgent since only 1 to 2% of global terrestrial vegetated area is classified as refugia and at least 50% covered by the global protected area network.     

Poor historical data drive conservation complacency: The case of mammal decline in south‐eastern Australian forests

Forested ecosystems of south‐eastern Australia now differ physically, compositionally and functionally from their condition prior to European settlement. Understanding these changes, and how native species and entire ecosystems have responded, is crucial for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. Here I argue that a combination of limited historical information and a knowledge base biased towards modern ecological studies has resulted in a distorted perception of ecosystem condition, hindering the instigation of effective biodiversity conservation measures. This argument is based on recently obtained information about changes to the non‐volant mammal community, which reveals relatively recent but underreported ecological changes, including major declines in species distribution and abundance, shifts in niche utilization and associated disruption of ecosystem functions. Ultimately, many mammal species are being denied the capacity to function to the extent they did historically. Following this re‐assessment, it is evident that current forest management does not adequately address contemporary conservation dilemmas posed by detrimental ecosystem changes. This is especially salient when most of the factors responsible for causing changes to the mammal community are still active and include forest management and utilization activities. Therefore, additional conservation measures are essential to meet forest stewardship and biodiversity conservation obligations. For the health, functionality and sustainability of forested ecosystems, native mammal species must be capable of functioning to their ecological potential and occupy their original niche. This will be facilitated by the suppression of threatening processes (primarily exotic species), ensuring ecologically sensitive fire regimes and the reintroduction/translocation of missing species. The recovery or restoration of forest functionality based on mammal conservation should have wide‐scale benefits for biodiversity conservation.     

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real‐world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.     

US forest response to projected climate‐related stress: a tolerance perspective

Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine‐scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse‐grained, large‐scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand‐level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate‐related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought‐related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high‐elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States.     

Wilderness and future conservation priorities in Australia

Aim Most approaches to conservation prioritization are focused on biodiversity features that are already threatened. While this is necessary in the face of accelerating anthropogenic threats, there have been calls to conserve large intact landscapes, often termed ‘wilderness’, to ensure the long‐term persistence of biodiversity. In this study, we examine the consequences of directing conservation expenditure using a threat‐based framework for wilderness conservation. Location The Australian continent. Methods We measured the degree of congruence between the extent of wilderness and the Australian protected area network in 2000 and 2006, which was established using a threat‐based systematic planning framework. We also assessed priority areas for future reserve acquisitions identified by the Australian government under the current framework. Results In 2000, 14% of Australia’s wilderness was under formal protection, while the protected area network covered only 8.5% of the continent, suggesting a historical bias towards wilderness protection. However, the expansion of the reserve system from 2000 to 2006 was biased towards non‐wilderness areas. Moreover, 90% of the wilderness that was protected over this period comprised areas not primarily designated for biodiversity conservation. We found a significant (P < 0.05) negative relationship between bioregions considered to be a priority for future reserve prioritization and the amount of wilderness they contain. Main conclusions While there is an urgent need to overcome past biases in reserve network design so as to better protect poorly represented species and habitats, prioritization approaches should not become so reactive as to ignore the role that large, intact landscapes play in conserving biodiversity, especially in a time of human‐induced climate change. This can be achieved by using current or future threats rather than past threats to prioritize areas, and by incorporating key ecological processes and costs of acquisition and management within the planning framework.     

Moving forward in global‐change ecology: capitalizing on natural variability

Natural resources managers are being asked to follow practices that accommodate for the impact of climate change on the ecosystems they manage, while global‐ecosystems modelers aim to forecast future responses under different climate scenarios. However, the lack of scientific knowledge about short‐term ecosystem responses to climate change has made it difficult to define set conservation practices or to realistically inform ecosystem models. Until recently, the main goal for ecologists was to study the composition and structure of communities and their implications for ecosystem function, but due to the probable magnitude and irreversibility of climate‐change effects (species extinctions and loss of ecosystem function), a shorter term focus on responses of ecosystems to climate change is needed. We highlight several underutilized approaches for studying the ecological consequences of climate change that capitalize on the natural variability of the climate system at different temporal and spatial scales. For example, studying organismal responses to extreme climatic events can inform about the resilience of populations to global warming and contribute to the assessment of local extinctions. Translocation experiments and gene expression are particular useful to quantitate a species' acclimation potential to global warming. And studies along environmental gradients can guide habitat restoration and protection programs by identifying vulnerable species and sites. These approaches identify the processes and mechanisms underlying species acclimation to changing conditions, combine different analytical approaches, and can be used to improve forecasts of the short‐term impacts of climate change and thus inform conservation practices and ecosystem models in a meaningful way.     

Towards systematic and evidence‐based conservation planning for western chimpanzees

As animal populations continue to decline, frequently driven by large‐scale land‐use change, there is a critical need for improved environmental planning. While data‐driven spatial planning is widely applied in conservation, as of yet it is rarely used for primates. The western chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) declined by 80% within 24 years and was uplisted to Critically Endangered by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species in 2016. To support conservation planning for western chimpanzees, we systematically identified geographic areas important for this taxon. We based our analysis on a previously published data set of modeled density distribution and on several scenarios that accounted for different spatial scales and conservation targets. Across all scenarios, typically less than one‐third of areas we identified as important are currently designated as high‐level protected areas (i.e., national park or IUCN category I or II). For example, in the scenario for protecting 50% of all chimpanzees remaining in West Africa (i.e., approximately 26,500 chimpanzees), an area of approximately 60,000 km² was selected (i.e., approximately 12% of the geographic range), only 24% of which is currently designated as protected areas. The derived maps can be used to inform the geographic prioritization of conservation interventions, including protected area expansion, “no‐go‐zones” for industry and infrastructure, and conservation sites outside the protected area network. Environmental guidelines by major institutions funding infrastructure and resource extraction projects explicitly require corporations to minimize the negative impact on great apes. Therefore, our results can inform avoidance and mitigation measures during the planning phases of such projects. This study was designed to inform future stakeholder consultation processes that could ultimately integrate the conservation of western chimpanzees with national land‐use priorities. Our approach may help in promoting similar work for other primate taxa to inform systematic conservation planning in times of growing threats.     

Conservation of native fauna in highly invaded systems: managing mammalian predators in New Zealand

Programs to conserve native fauna in invaded ecosystems often aim to reduce the impacts of alien predators. This approach can lead to unexpected outcomes in the native and the remaining invasive components of restored ecosystems. In New Zealand, suppression and eradication of invasive mammalian predators are well‐established conservation strategies, particularly on offshore islands and in mainland ecosanctuaries. Predator control has achieved important conservation gains over increasingly large areas but these can be offset by the ecological release of other uncontrolled pest species. In addition, novel ecosystems created by selective predator control and reintroductions of locally extinct or depleted native species may have unexpected trajectories as they evolve. Effective conservation requires new techniques for controlling entire suites of invasive predators over large areas, routine monitoring of the conservation outcomes of predator control, and better understanding of how modified, and in some cases reconstructed, seminatural ecosystems change when invasive predators are removed.     

Effects of plant functional group removal on structure and function of soil communities across contrasting ecosystems

Loss of plant diversity has an impact on ecosystems worldwide, but we lack a mechanistic understanding of how this loss may influence below‐ground biota and ecosystem functions across contrasting ecosystems in the long term. We used the longest running biodiversity manipulation experiment across contrasting ecosystems in existence to explore the below‐ground consequences of 19 years of plant functional group removals for each of 30 contrasting forested lake islands in northern Sweden. We found that, against expectations, the effects of plant removals on the communities of key groups of soil organisms (bacteria, fungi and nematodes), and organic matter quality and soil ecosystem functioning (decomposition and microbial activity) were relatively similar among islands that varied greatly in productivity and soil fertility. This highlights that, in contrast to what has been shown for plant productivity, plant biodiversity loss effects on below‐ground functions can be relatively insensitive to environmental context or variation among widely contrasting ecosystems.     

Managing consequences of climate‐driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology,conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well‐being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human‐centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.     

Climate change and alpine stream biology: progress,challenges, and opportunities for the future

In alpine regions worldwide, climate change is dramatically altering ecosystems and affecting biodiversity in many ways. For streams, receding alpine glaciers and snowfields, paired with altered precipitation regimes, are driving shifts in hydrology, species distributions, basal resources, and threatening the very existence of some habitats and biota. Alpine streams harbour substantial species and genetic diversity due to significant habitat insularity and environmental heterogeneity. Climate change is expected to affect alpine stream biodiversity across many levels of biological resolution from micro‐ to macroscopic organisms and genes to communities. Herein, we describe the current state of alpine stream biology from an organism‐focused perspective. We begin by reviewing seven standard and emerging approaches that combine to form the current state of the discipline. We follow with a call for increased synthesis across existing approaches to improve understanding of how these imperiled ecosystems are responding to rapid environmental change. We then take a forward‐looking viewpoint on how alpine stream biologists can make better use of existing data sets through temporal comparisons, integrate remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies, and apply genomic tools to refine knowledge of underlying evolutionary processes. We conclude with comments about the future of biodiversity conservation in alpine streams to confront the daunting challenge of mitigating the effects of rapid environmental change in these sentinel ecosystems.     

Using historical woodland creation to construct a long‐term,large‐scale natural experiment: the WrEN project

Natural experiments have been proposed as a way of complementing manipulative experiments to improve ecological understanding and guide management. There is a pressing need for evidence from such studies to inform a shift to landscape‐scale conservation, including the design of ecological networks. Although this shift has been widely embraced by conservation communities worldwide, the empirical evidence is limited and equivocal, and may be limiting effective conservation. We present principles for well‐designed natural experiments to inform landscape‐scale conservation and outline how they are being applied in the WrEN project, which is studying the effects of 160 years of woodland creation on biodiversity in UK landscapes. We describe the study areas and outline the systematic process used to select suitable historical woodland creation sites based on key site‐ and landscape‐scale variables – including size, age, and proximity to other woodland. We present the results of an analysis to explore variation in these variables across sites to test their suitability as a basis for a natural experiment. Our results confirm that this landscape satisfies the principles we have identified and provides an ideal study system for a long‐term, large‐scale natural experiment to explore how woodland biodiversity is affected by different site and landscape attributes. The WrEN sites are now being surveyed for a wide selection of species that are likely to respond differently to site‐ and landscape‐scale attributes and at different spatial and temporal scales. The results from WrEN will help develop detailed recommendations to guide landscape‐scale conservation, including the design of ecological networks. We also believe that the approach presented demonstrates the wider utility of well‐designed natural experiments to improve our understanding of ecological systems and inform policy and practice.     

Is gardening a useful metaphor for conservation and restoration? History and controversy

As the wilderness metaphor has decreased in utility due to widespread human‐driven environmental change, conservationists and restorationists have struggled to find new ways to inspire nature conservation. Some have suggested gardening as a new metaphor, but many are wary of its implications, particularly for animals viewed as threats or pests. Others, however, point out positive attributes for the metaphor including its focus on stewardship of nature which allows for positive human agency in ecosystems. We argue a gardening metaphor may also allow increased flexibility in approaches to biodiversity conservation, in part by allowing goals to be fit to communities and their specific cultural contexts. Wild gardening would seek to preserve global biodiversity while acknowledging the pivotal role humans now play in that process. Here we review the use of the garden metaphor over the last 25 years and discuss what wild gardening might mean for restoration. Consistent with a long history of environmental thought, we suggest such a metaphor will work best if it is coupled with a civic/stewardship ethic and a good dose of humility on the part of all gardeners.     

A triage framework for managing novel,hybrid, and designed marine ecosystems

The novel ecosystem (NE) concept has been discussed in terrestrial restoration ecology over the last 15 years but has not yet found much traction in the marine context. Against a background of unprecedented environmental change, managers of natural marine resources have portfolios full of altered systems for which restoration to a previous historical baseline may be impractical for ecological, social, or financial reasons. In these cases, the NE concept is useful for weighing options and emphasizes the risk of doing nothing by forcing questions regarding the value of novelty and how it can best be managed in the marine realm. Here, we explore how the concept fits marine ecosystems. We propose a scheme regarding how the NE concept could be used as a triage framework for use in marine environments within the context of a decision framework that explicitly considers changed ecosystems and whether restoration is the best or only option. We propose a conceptual diagram to show where marine NEs fit in the continuum of unaltered to shifted marine ecosystems. Overall, we suggest that the NE concept is of interest to marine ecologists and resource managers because it introduces a new vocabulary for considering marine systems that have been changed through human actions but have not shifted to an alternate stable state. Although it remains to be seen whether the concept of marine NEs leads to better conservation and restoration decisions, we posit that the concept may help inform management decisions in an era of unprecedented global marine change.     

Balancing food production and nature conservation in the Neotropical dry forests of northern Argentina

The growing human population and the increase in per capita food consumption are driving agriculture expansion and affecting natural ecosystems around the world. To balance increasing agriculture production and nature conservation, we must assess the efficiency of land‐use strategies. Soybean production, mainly exported to China and Europe, has become the major driver of deforestation in dry forest/savanna ecosystems of South America. In this article we compared land cover patterns (based on satellite imagery) and land‐use and human population trends (based on government statistics) in regions with two contrasting development pathways in the Chaco dry forests of northern Argentina, since the early 1970s. The area (ca. 13 million hectares) includes one of the largest continuous patches of tropical dry forests and has experienced rapid land‐use change. In the region where land use has been driven by government‐sponsored colonization programs, the expansion of extensive grazing has led to a growing rural population, low food production, and widespread environmental degradation. In contrast, in the region dominated by market‐driven soybean expansion, the rural population has decreased, food production is between 300% and 800% greater, and low‐density extensive cattle production has declined over extensive remaining forested areas, resulting in a land‐use trend that appears to better balance food production and nature conservation.     

Solutions for ecosystem‐level protection of ocean systems under climate change

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta‐analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co‐mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem‐level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long‐term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate‐ready and ecosystem‐level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.     

生态系统修复国内外研究进展与展望

气候变化和人类活动的增加不仅导致生态系统退化、生物多样性丧失、生物圈资源供给能力降低, 而且极大地制约了社会经济的可持续发展。尽管在全世界范围内已实施了大量的保护工作, 但全球生态系统退化仍在继续, 逐渐成为备受关注的全球性问题。文章首先厘清生态系统修复的发展历程、相关概念与理论。其次, 归纳生态系统修复的全球议题, 涉及生态系统服务及其价值评估、生物多样性保护、应对气候变化与碳储存、自然保护地、监测体系与适应性管理、公平性与多主体参与等方面。然后, 总结我国森林、草原、河流与湿地、海洋与海岸带的生态系统退化问题与修复进展, 梳理生态保护红线、自然保护地生态系统修复和国土空间生态保护修复3种措施的进展与不足。最后, 对山水林田湖草沙一体化保护与系统治理、生态系统修复的多元融资政策与渠道、荒野生态保护修复的探索与实践、城镇生态系统修复的研究与应用以及生态系统修复对生物多样性的保护与维持等五个方面进行展望, 以期为我国进一步开展生态系统保护修复的相关研究与实践提供指导。     

Determining climate change impacts on ecosystems: the role of palaeontology

Climate change is projected to change the ecosystems on land and in the sea at rates that are unprecedented for millions of years. The most commonly used approach to derive projections of how ecosystems will look in the future are experiments on living organisms. By their nature, experiments are unlike the real world and cannot capture the ability of organisms to migrate, select and evolve. They are often limited to a select few species and drivers of environmental change and hence cannot represent the complexity of interactions in ‘real’ ecosystems. The fossil record is an archive of responses to climate change at a global ecosystem scale. If, and only if, fossil assemblage variation is combined with independent information of environmental changes, sensitives of species or higher taxa to a specific magnitude of change of an environmental driver can be determined and used to inform future vulnerabilities of this species to the same driver. While records are often fragmented, there are time intervals which, when thoroughly analysed with quantitative data, can provide valuable insights into the future of biodiversity on this planet. This review provides an overview of projected impacts on marine ecosystems including: (1) the range of neontological methods, observations and their challenges; and (2) the complementary information that palaeontologists can contribution to this global challenge. I advocate that, in collaborations with other disciplines, we should aim for a strong visibility of our field and the knowledge it can provide for policy relevant assessments of the future.     

Resource partitioning between ungulate populations in arid environments

Herbivores are major drivers of ecosystem structure, diversity, and function. Resilient ecosystems therefore require viable herbivore populations in a sustainable balance with environmental resource availability. This balance is becoming harder to achieve, with increasingly threatened species reliant on small protected areas in increasingly harsh and unpredictable environments. Arid environments in North Africa exemplify this situation, featuring a biologically distinct species assemblage exposed to extreme and volatile conditions, including habitat loss and climate change‐associated threats. Here, we implement an integrated likelihood approach to relate scimitar‐horned oryx (Oryx dammah) and dorcas gazelle (Gazella dorcas) density, via dung distance sampling, to habitat, predator, and geographic correlates in Dghoumes National Park, Tunisia. We show how two threatened sympatric ungulates partition resources on the habitat axis, exhibiting nonuniform responses to the same vegetation gradient. Scimitar‐horned oryx were positively associated with plant species richness, selecting for vegetated ephemeral watercourses (wadis) dominated by herbaceous cover. Conversely, dorcas gazelle were negatively associated with vegetation density (herbaceous height, litter cover, and herbaceous cover), selecting instead for rocky plains with sparse vegetation. We suggest that adequate plant species richness should be a prerequisite for areas proposed for future ungulate reintroductions in arid and semi‐arid environments. This evidence will inform adaptive management of reintroduced ungulates in protected environments, helping managers and planners design sustainable ecosystems and effective conservation programs.