The Impact of the February 2012 Cold Spell on Health in Italy Using Surveillance Data

In February 2012 Italy was hit by an exceptional cold spell with extremely low temperatures and heavy snowfall. The aim of this work is to estimate the impact of the cold spell on health in the Italian cities using data from the rapid surveillance systems. In Italy, a national mortality surveillance system has been operational since 2004 in 34 cities for the rapid monitoring of daily mortality. Data from this system were used to evaluate the impact of the February 2012 cold spell on mortality shortly after the occurrence of the event. Furthermore, a cause-specific analysis was conducted in Roma using the Regional Mortality Registry and the emergency visits (ER) surveillance system. Cold spell episodes were defined as days when mean temperatures were below the 10^th percentile of February distribution for more than three days. To estimate the impact of the cold spell, excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed and daily expected values. An overall 1578 (+25%) excess deaths among the 75+ age group was recorded in the 14 cities that registered a cold spell in February 2012. A statistically significant excess in mortality was observed in several cities ranging from +22% in Bologna to +58% in Torino. Cause-specific analysis conducted in Roma showed a statistically significant excess in mortality among the 75+ age group for respiratory disease (+64%), COPD (+57%), cardiovascular disease +20% ischemic heart disease (14%) and other heart disease (+33%). Similar results were observed for ER visits. Surveillance systems need to become are a key component of prevention plans as they can help improve public health response and are a valid data source to rapidly quantify the impact on health. Cold-related mortality is still an important issue and should not be underestimated by public health Authorities.     

Short-term effect of dust storms on the risk of mortality due to respiratory, cardiovascular and all-causes in Kuwait

This study aimed to investigate the impact of dust storms on short-term mortality in Kuwait. We analyzed respiratory and cardiovascular mortality as well as all-cause mortality in relation to dust storm events over a 5-year study period, using data obtained through a population-based retrospective ecological time series study. Dust storm days were identified when the national daily average of PM₁₀ exceeded 200 μg/m³. Generalized additive models with Poisson link were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of age-stratified daily mortality associated with dust events, after adjusting for potential confounders including weather variables and long-term trends. There was no significant association between dust storm events and same-day respiratory mortality (RR = 0.96; 95 %CI 0.88–1.04), cardiovascular mortality (RR = 0.98; 95 %CI 0.96–1.012) or all-cause mortality (RR = 0.99; 95 %CI 0.97–1.00). Overall our findings suggest that local dust, that most likely originates from crustal materials, has little impact on short-term respiratory, cardiovascular or all-cause mortality.     

France’s heat health watch warning system

In 2003, a Heat Health Watch Warning System was developed in France to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess of mortality. The system was developed on the basis of a retrospective analysis of mortality and meteorological data in fourteen pilot cities. Several meteorological indicators were tested in relation to levels of excess mortality. Computations of sensibility and specificity were used to choose the meteorological indicators and the cut-offs. An indicator that mixes minimum and maximum temperatures was chosen. The cut-offs were set in order to anticipate events resulting in an excess mortality above 100% in the smallest cities and above 50% in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and Lille. The system was extended nationwide using the 98th percentile of the distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures. A national action plan was set up, using this watch warning system. It was activated on 1st June 2004 on a national scale. The system implies a close cooperation between the French Weather Bureau (Météo France), the National Institute of Health Surveillance (InVS) and the Ministry of Health. The system is supported by a panel of preventive actions, to prevent the sanitary impact of heat waves.     

The impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in Shanghai, China

No prior studies in China have investigated the health impact of cold spell. In Shanghai, we defined the cold spell as a period of at least seven consecutive days with daily temperature below the third percentile during the study period (2001–2009). Between January 2001 and December 2009, we identified a cold spell between January 27 and February 3, 2008 in Shanghai. We investigated the impact of cold spell on mortality of the residents living in the nine urban districts of Shanghai. We calculated the excess deaths and rate ratios (RRs) during the cold spell and compared these data with a winter reference period (January 6–9, and February 28 to March 2). The number of excess deaths during the cold spell period was 153 in our study population. The cold spell caused a short-term increase in total mortality of 13 % (95 % CI: 7–19 %). The impact was statistically significant for cardiovascular mortality (RR?=?1.21, 95 % CI: 1.12–1.31), but not for respiratory mortality (RR?=?1.14, 95 % CI: 0.98–1.32). For total mortality, gender did not make a statistically significant difference for the cold spell impact. Cold spell had a significant impact on mortality in elderly people (over 65 years), but not in other age groups. Conclusively, our analysis showed that the 2008 cold spell had a substantial effect on mortality in Shanghai. Public health programs should be tailored to prevent cold-spell-related health problems in the city.     

XRCC1 and ERCC1 variants modify malignant mesothelioma risk: a case-control study

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare aggressive tumor associated with asbestos exposure. The possible role of genetic factors has also been suggested and MPM has been associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of xenobiotic and oxidative metabolism enzymes. We have identified an association of the DNA repair gene XRCC1 with MPM in the population of Casale Monferrato, a town exposed to high asbestos pollution. To extend this observation we examined 35 SNPs in 15 genes that could be involved in MPM carcinogenicity in 220 MPM patients and 296 controls from two case-control studies conducted in Casale (151 patients, 252 controls) and Turin (69 patients, 44 controls), respectively. Unconditional multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Two DNA repair genes were associated with MPM, i.e. XRCC1 and ERCC1. Considering asbestos-exposed only, the risk increased with the increasing number of XRCC1-399Q alleles (Casale: OR=1.44, 95%CI 1.02-2.03; Casale+Turin: OR=1.34, 95%CI 0.98-1.84) or XRCC1 -77T alleles (Casale+Turin: OR=1.33, 95%CI 0.97-1.81). The XRCC1-TGGGGGAACAGA haplotype was significantly associated with MPM (Casale: OR=1.76, 95%CI 1.04-2.96). Patients heterozygotes for ERCC1 N118N showed an increased OR in all subjects (OR=1.66, 95%CI 1.06-2.60) and in asbestos-exposed only (OR=1.59, 95%CI 1.01-2.50). When the dominant model was considered (i.e. ERCC1 heterozygotes CT plus homozygotes CC versus homozygotes TT) the risk was statistically significant both in all subjects (OR=1.61, 95%CI 1.06-2.47) and in asbestos-exposed only (OR=1.56, 95%CI 1.02-2.40). The combination of ERCC1 N118N and XRCC1 R399Q was statistically significant (Casale: OR=2.02, 95%CI 1.01-4.05; Casale+Turin: OR=2.39, 95%CI 1.29-4.43). The association of MPM with DNA repair genes support the hypothesis that an increased susceptibility to DNA damage may favour asbestos carcinogenicity.     

A meteorological station and a pollen trap at the botanical garden and arboretum of the university of Rome Tor Vergata

A completely automated meteorological station has beenoperating at the Botanical Garden and Arboretum ofUniversity of Rome Tor Vergata since 1991. As of March1996, the meteorological station was integrated witha volumetric pollen trap.The new airborne pollen monitoring station operatesall year round, together with another centre locatedin Latium.This new centre will evaluate pollen dispersal inrelation to climatic data, floristic and anthesicspectra and the pollen allergy incidence in thesouth-eastern area of Rome.The characteristics of this new station along with thefirst data collected are presented and discussed.According to an educational program developed at theBotanical Garden, activities linked to allergenicplants have been carried out with primary andsecondary school as well as university students.Key words: Botanical Garden, volumetric pollen trap,floristic census.     

Pollen calendar in Northern Italy and its relationship to climate

Pollen data collected with a Hirst spore-trap from 1981 to 1988 are presented and related to flora, vegetation and climate of the city of Turin. A comparison of vegetational and aerosporological data collected in other European cities show that, from this point of view, Turin is more similar to the Central-European area than to the Mediterranean one.     

Predicting maintenance or achievement of healthy weight in children: the impact of changes in physical fitness

Physical fitness is often inversely associated with adiposity in children cross-sectionally, but the effect of becoming fit or maintaining fitness over time on changes in weight status has not been well studied in children. We investigated the impact of changes in fitness over 1-4 years of follow-up on the maintenance or achievement of healthy weight among 2,793 schoolchildren who were first measured as 1st to 7th graders. Students were classified as "fit" or "underfit" according to age- and gender-specific norms in five fitness domains: endurance, agility, flexibility, upper body strength, and abdominal strength. Weight status was dichotomized by BMI percentile: "healthy weight" (<85th percentile) or "overweight/obese" (≥85th percentile). At baseline, of the 38.3% overweight/obese children, 81.9% (N = 875) were underfit. Underfit overweight students were more likely to achieve healthy weight if they achieved fitness (boys: odds ratio (OR) = 2.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.24-5.77; girls: OR = 4.67, 95%CI = 2.09-10.45). Initially fit overweight children (N = 194) were more likely to achieve healthy weight if they maintained fitness (boys: OR = 11.99, 95%CI = 2.18-65.89; girls: OR = 2.46, 95%CI = 1.04-5.83). Similarly, initially fit healthy-weight children (N = 717) were more likely to maintain healthy weight if they maintained fitness (boys: OR 3.70, 95%CI = 1.40-9.78; girls: OR = 4.14, 95%CI = 1.95-8.78). Overweight schoolchildren who achieve or maintain physical fitness are more likely to achieve healthy weight, and healthy-weight children who maintain fitness are more likely to maintain healthy weight. School-based policies/practices that support physical fitness may contribute to obesity reduction and maintenance of healthy weight among schoolchildren.     

A comparison of the urban flora of different phytoclimatic regions in Italy

This study is a comparison of the spontaneous vascular flora of five Italian cities: Milan, Ancona, Rome, Cagliari and Palermo. The aims of the study are to test the hypothesis that urbanization results in uniformity of urban floras, and to evaluate the role of alien species in the flora of settlements located in different phytoclimatic regions. To obtain comparable data, ten plots of 1 ha, each representing typical urban habitats, were analysed in each city. The results indicate a low floristic similarity between the cities, while the strongest similarity appears within each city and between each city and the seminatural vegetation of the surrounding region. In the Mediterranean settlements, even the most urbanized plots reflect the characters of the surrounding landscape and are rich in native species, while aliens are relatively few. These results differ from the reported uniformity and the high proportion of aliens which generally characterize urban floras elsewhere. To explain this trend the importance of apophytes (indigenous plants expanding into man-made habitats) is highlighted; several Mediterranean species adapted to disturbance (i.e. grazing, trampling, and human activities) are pre-adapted to the urban environment. In addition, consideration is given to the minor role played by the 'urban heat island' in the Mediterranean basin, and to the structure and history of several Italian settlements, where ancient walls, ruins and archaeological sites in the periphery as well as in the historical centres act as conservative habitats and provide connection with seed-sources on the outskirts.     

Excess Winter Mortality and Cold Temperatures in a Subtropical City,Guangzhou, China

Background

A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented.

Methods

This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution.

Results

The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52%) from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24%) from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%). We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (r_s=-0.738, P=0.037), but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95%CI:0.34%-2.40%) and 0.88% (95%CI:0.11%-1.64%) in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively.

Conclusion

Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate cold-related mortality for people living in warm climate.     

Weather and deaths in Pittsburgh,Pennsylvania: A comparison with Birmingham,Alabama

The relationship between weather and daily mortality was examined over a 4-year period in the temperate climate of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Eight weather parameters were correlated with daily mortality using multiple, simple, and partial correlation techniques. Results from this study were then compared with results obtained from a previous investigation involving an identical analysis of the effects of weather on death in the subtropical climate of Birmingham, Alabama. Although the relationship between weather and total mortality is statistically significant in both areas, weather in the temperate region accounts for a greater portion of the daily variation in number of deaths. In both cities the effect of weather increases with age and is more intense among the white than the nonwhite population but does not appear to vary with sex. In both places weather significantly influences death due to respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases in general, but affects little, mortality from cancer or behaviorally related causes. The cities differ, however, in that Pittsburgh weather is significantly associated with deaths from ischemic heart disease but not with cerebrovascular mortality, while the reverse is observed in Birmingham. The cities also differ in specific meteorological factors and in the seasonal distribution of the intensity of the weather-mortality relationship.     

Economic status and temperature-related mortality in Asia

In developed countries, low latitude and high temperature are positively associated with the population’s ability to adapt to heat. However, few studies have examined the effect of economic status on the relationship between long-term exposure to high temperature and health. We compared heterogeneous temperature-related mortality effects relative to the average summer temperature in high-socioeconomic-status (SES) cities to temperature-related effects in low-SES cities. In the first stage of the research, we conducted a linear regression analysis to quantify the mortality effects of high temperature (at or above the 95th percentile) in 32 cities in Taiwan, China, Japan, and Korea. In the second stage, we used a meta-regression to examine the association between mortality risk with average summer temperature and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In cities with a low GDP per capita (less than 20,000 USD), the effects of temperature were detrimental to the population if the long-term average summer temperature was high. In contrast, in cities with a high GDP per capita, temperature-related mortality risk was not significantly related to average summer temperature. The relationship between long-term average summer temperature and the short-term effects of high temperatures differed based on the city-level economic status.     

Impact of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on the estimated associations of temperature and daily mortality

We assessed the influence of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on associations between apparent temperature (AT) and daily mortality in Mexico City and Monterrey. Poisson regressions were fit to mortality among all ages, children (ages 0–14 years) and the elderly (ages 65 years). Predictors included mean daily AT, season, day of week and public holidays for the base model. Respiratory epidemics and air pollution (particulate matter <10 m in aerodynamic diameter and O₃) were added singly and then jointly for a fully adjusted model. Percent changes in mortality were calculated for days of relatively extreme temperatures [cold (10–11°C) for both cities and heat (35–36°C) for Monterrey], compared to days at the overall mean temperature in each city (15°C in Mexico City, 25°C in Monterrey). In Mexico City, total mortality increased 12.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.5%, 14.5%] on cold days (fully adjusted). Among children, the adjusted association was similar [10.9% (95% CI: 5.4%, 16.7%)], but without control for pollution and epidemics, was nearly twice as large [19.7% (95% CI: 13.9%, 25.9)]. In Monterrey, the fully adjusted heat effect for all deaths was 18.7% (95% CI: 11.7%, 26.1%), a third lower than the unadjusted estimate; the heat effect was lower among children [5.5% (95% CI: –10.1%, 23.8%)]. Cold had a similar effect on all-age mortality as in Mexico City [11.7% (95% CI: 3.7%, 20.3%)]. Responses of the elderly differed little from all-ages responses in both cities. Associations between weather and health persisted even with control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics in two Mexican cities, but risk assessments and climate change adaptation programs are best informed by analyses that account for these potential confounders.     

Influenza and pneumonia mortality in 66 large cities in the United States in years surrounding the 1918 pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was a major epidemiological event of the twentieth century resulting in at least twenty million deaths worldwide; however, despite its historical, epidemiological, and biological relevance, it remains poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between annual pneumonia and influenza death rates in the pre-pandemic (1910–17) and pandemic (1918–20) periods and the scaling of mortality with latitude, longitude and population size, using data from 66 large cities of the United States. The mean pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates were highly associated with pneumonia death rates during the pandemic period (Spearman ρ = 0.64–0.72; P<0.001). By contrast, there was a weak correlation between pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza mortality rates. Pneumonia mortality rates partially explained influenza mortality rates in 1918 (ρ = 0.34, P = 0.005) but not during any other year. Pneumonia death counts followed a linear relationship with population size in all study years, suggesting that pneumonia death rates were homogeneous across the range of population sizes studied. By contrast, influenza death counts followed a power law relationship with a scaling exponent of ∼0.81 (95%CI: 0.71, 0.91) in 1918, suggesting that smaller cities experienced worst outcomes during the pandemic. A linear relationship was observed for all other years. Our study suggests that mortality associated with the 1918–20 influenza pandemic was in part predetermined by pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates in 66 large US cities, perhaps through the impact of the physical and social structure of each city. Smaller cities suffered a disproportionately high per capita influenza mortality burden than larger ones in 1918, while city size did not affect pneumonia mortality rates in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods.     

Combined Effects of Admission Serum Creatinine Concentration with Age and Gender on the Prognostic Significance of Subjects with Acute ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in China

Objective

to explore the impact of admission serum creatinine concentration on the in-hospital mortality and its interaction with age and gender in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in China.

Methods

1424 acute STEMI patients were enrolled in the study. Anthropometric and laboratory measurements were collected from every patient. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine the relationships between the admission serum creatinine level (Cr level), age, sex and the in-hospital mortality. A crossover analysis and a stratified analysis were used to determine the combined impact of Cr levels with age and gender.

Results

Female (HR 1.687, 95%CI 1.051∼2.708), elevated Cr level (HR 5.922, 95%CI 3.780∼9,279) and old age (1.692, 95%CI 1.402∼2.403) were associated with a high risk of death respectively. After adjusting for other confounders, the renal dysfunction was still independently associated with a higher risk of death (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.32∼4.63), while female gender (HR 1.19, 95%CI 0.62∼2.29) and old age (HR 1.77, 95%CI 0.92∼3.37) was not. In addition, crossover analysis revealed synergistic effects between elevated Cr level and female gender (SI = 3.01, SIM = 2.10, AP = 0.55). Stratified analysis showed that the impact of renal dysfunction on in-hospital mortality was more pronounced in patients <60 years old (odds ratios 11.10, 95% CI 3.72 to 33.14) compared with patients 60 to 74 years old (odds ratios 5.18, 95% CI 2.48∼10.83) and patients ≥75years old (odds ratios 3.99, 95% CI 1.89 to 8.42).

Conclusion

Serum Cr concentration on admission was a strong predictor for in-hospital mortality among Chinese acute STEMI patients especially in the young and the female.     

Socioeconomic Position,Type 2 Diabetes and Long-Term Risk of Death

Background

Both socioeconomic position (SEP) and type 2 diabetes have previously been found to be associated with mortality; however, little is known about the association between SEP, type 2 diabetes and long-term mortality when comorbidity is taken into account.

Methods

We conducted a population-based cohort study of all Danish citizens aged 40-69 years with no history of diabetes during 2001-2006 (N=2,330,206). The cohort was identified using nationwide registers, and it was followed for up to 11 years (mean follow-up was 9.5 years (SD: 2.6)). We estimated the age-standardised mortality rate (MR) and performed Poisson regression to estimate the mortality-rate-ratio (MRR) by educational level, income and cohabiting status among people with and without type 2 diabetes.

Results

We followed 2,330,206 people for 22,971,026 person-years at risk and identified 139,681 individuals with type 2 diabetes. In total, 195,661 people died during the study period; 19,959 of these had type 2 diabetes. The age-standardised MR increased with decreasing SEP both for people with and without diabetes. Type 2 diabetes and SEP both had a strong impact on the overall mortality; the combined effect of type 2 diabetes and SEP on mortality was additive rather than multiplicative. Compared to women without diabetes and in the highest income quintile, the MRR’s were 2.8 (95%CI 2.6, 3.0) higher for women with type 2 diabetes in the lowest income quintile, while diabetes alone increased the risk of mortality 2.0 (95%CI 1.9, 2.2) times and being in the lowest income quintile without diabetes 1.8 (95%CI 1.7,1.9) times after adjusting for comorbidity. For men, the MRR’s were 2.7 (95%CI 2.5,2.9), 1.9 (95%CI 1.8,2.0) and 1.8 (95%CI 1.8,1.9), respectively.

Conclusion

Both Type 2 diabetes and SEP were associated with the overall mortality. The relation between type 2 diabetes, SEP, and all-cause mortality was only partly explained by comorbidity.     

Wild bees along an urban gradient: winners and losers

The variability of bee communities along an urban gradient has a potentially strong impact on pollinator-plant interactions. We investigated changes in bee species richness and community composition in the city centre and suburbs of Pozna??, Poland. During 2006?C2008 we recorded 2,495 individuals from 104 species. The most abundant species was Andrena haemmorhoa. Other abundant species were Bombus pascuorum, Andrena vaga, Andrena nitida, Bombus terrestris. Several species appeared to be more abundant in the city centre whereas others showed an opposite tendency. We have found that the urbanized landscape can act as a filter for the bee community since some specific ecological traits facilitate colonization of the city centre. Small-bodied species that start their activity later in the season and are not solitary preferred the city centre. However, bee species diversity and richness remained stable across the urban gradient indicating some advantages of being a city dwelling bee. We suggest that a city can be a very important habitat for a diverse bee fauna and that conservation of a wide range of habitats of different urbanization levels seems to be the most suitable strategy for conservation of bee diversity in cities.     

Distance to Care,Facility Delivery and Early Neonatal Mortality in Malawi and Zambia

Background

Globally, approximately 3 million babies die annually within their first month. Access to adequate care at birth is needed to reduce newborn as well as maternal deaths. We explore the influence of distance to delivery care and of level of care on early neonatal mortality in rural Zambia and Malawi, the influence of distance (and level of care) on facility delivery, and the influence of facility delivery on early neonatal mortality.

Methods and Findings

National Health Facility Censuses were used to classify the level of obstetric care for 1131 Zambian and 446 Malawian delivery facilities. Straight-line distances to facilities were calculated for 3771 newborns in the 2007 Zambia DHS and 8842 newborns in the 2004 Malawi DHS. There was no association between distance to care and early neonatal mortality in Malawi (OR 0.97, 95%CI 0.58–1.60), while in Zambia, further distance (per 10 km) was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.55, 95%CI 0.35–0.87). The level of care provided in the closest facility showed no association with early neonatal mortality in either Malawi (OR 1.02, 95%CI 0.90–1.16) or Zambia (OR 1.02, 95%CI 0.82–1.26). In both countries, distance to care was strongly associated with facility use for delivery (Malawi: OR 0.35 per 10km, 95%CI 0.26–0.46). All results are adjusted for available confounders. Early neonatal mortality did not differ by frequency of facility delivery in the community.

Conclusions

While better geographic access and higher level of care were associated with more frequent facility delivery, there was no association with lower early neonatal mortality. This could be due to low quality of care for newborns at health facilities, but differential underreporting of early neonatal deaths in the DHS is an alternative explanation. Improved data sources are needed to monitor progress in the provision of obstetric and newborn care and its impact on mortality.     

Short-term effects of ambient sulphur dioxide and particulate matter on mortality in 12 European cities: results from time series data from the APHEA project. Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach.

OBJECTIVES: To carry out a prospective combined quantitative analysis of the associations between all cause mortality and ambient particulate matter and sulphur dioxide. DESIGN: Analysis of time series data on daily number of deaths from all causes and concentrations of sulphur dioxide and particulate matter (measured as black smoke or particles smaller than 10 microns in diameter (PM10)) and potential confounders. SETTING: 12 European cities in the APHEA project (Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Relative risk of death. RESULTS: In western European cities it was found that an increase of 50 micrograms/m3 in sulphur dioxide or black smoke was associated with a 3% (95% confidence interval 2% to 4%) increase in daily mortality and the corresponding figure for PM10 was 2% (1% to 3%). In central eastern European cities the increase in mortality associated with a 50 micrograms/m3 change in sulphur dioxide was 0.8% (-0.1% to 2.4%) and in black smoke 0.6% (0.1% to 1.1%). Cumulative effects of prolonged (two to four days) exposure to air pollutants resulted in estimates comparable with the one day effects. The effects of both pollutants were stronger during the summer and were mutually independent. CONCLUSIONS: The internal consistency of the results in western European cities with wide differences in climate and environmental conditions suggest that these associations may be causal. The long term health impact of these effects is uncertain, but today''s relatively low levels of sulphur dioxide and particles still have detectable short term effects on health and further reductions in air pollution are advisable.     

Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand,foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong,China: New insight from the disease severity and burden

BackgroundThe association between the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and ambient temperature has been well documented. Although the severity of symptoms is an important indicator of disease burden and varies significantly across cases, it usually was ignored in previous studies, potentially leading to biased estimates of the health impact of temperature.MethodsWe estimated the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) by considering the severity of symptoms for each HFMD case reported during 2010–2012 in Guangdong and used distributed lag-nonlinear models to estimate the association between the daily average temperature and daily DALY of HFMD cases at the city-level. We investigated the potential effect modifiers on the pathway between temperature and DALY and pooled city-specific estimates to a provincial association using a meta-regression. The overall impact of temperature was further evaluated by estimates of DALYs that could be attributed to HFMD.ResultsThe overall cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on the DALY of HFMD showed an inverse-U shape, with the maximum effect estimated to be β = 0.0331 (95%CI: 0.0199–0.0463) DALY at 23.8°C. Overall, a total of 6.432 (95%CI: 3.942–8.885) DALYs (attributable fraction = 2.721%, 95%CI: 1.660–3.759%) could be attributed to temperature exposure. All the demographic subgroups had a similar trend as the main analysis, while the magnitude of the peak of the temperature impact tended to be higher among the males, those aged ≥3yrs or from the Pear-River Delta region. Additionally, the impact of temperature on DALY elevated significantly with the increasing population density, per capita GDP, and per capita green space in parks.ConclusionsTemperature exposure was associated with increased burden of HFMD nonlinearly, with certain groups such as boys and those from areas with greater population density being more vulnerable.